Comparing Bitcoins mid cycle pullback in 2013 to Matics recent pullback (possibly mid cycle).
- We see similar highs and lows on a relative time scale ratio between the two
- We see a similar pullback of around 75% for both
Golden Bull Cycle originally posted by Trading Shot on Trading View.
The basic theory is that Bitcoin spends approximately equal amounts of time going from the bear market low to the halfing compared to the halfing to the bull market peak.
I've added Fib extensions based on the previous bull cycle peak and bear market low.
We see on all cycles a struggle at...
2013 v 2021 cycle (2 week chart). Connecting the mid cycle tops on the RSI with a parallel channel shows our current RSI position at the same low as the 2013 mid cycle pullback. Stochastic RSI is also at a similar level.
Using the logarithmic extension on the logarithmic chart, and charting the previous bull cycles we see that bitcoin , in the past, has gone to the 2.272 - 2.414 extension using the previous peak and the bottom of the relevant bear market. If history repeats this would put Bitcoin at 207k - 269k.
Everyone is expecting a 39 -40k bounce, but i think we may go to the 21 week EMA at 32 - 33k which will wipe out a lot of over leveraged longs from 40k. Previous bull market had several pullbacks to this moving average. VPVR also supports a bigger drop. RSI also likes to pull back to 55 on the weekly as in the previous bull market.
Bitcoin looking to come down eventually to the 21 weekly exponential moving average which will be lining up with the golden pocket retracement over the next several weeks. This area also has the biggest volume spike on the volume profile indicator.
The RSI indicator shows bearish divergence and will come down to a 53 reading shown by the yellow horizontal line...
Bitcoin looking to retrace to the golden pocket area around 40k, which also coincides with the 50 day moving and exponential moving average. It also coincides with an area that previously traded a lot of volume shown on the Volume Profile indicator.
Bitcoin breaks its triangle pattern with volume confirming direction and a candle opening outside of the triangle on the 2hr. The Ema ribbon is also broken on the 2hr with the 4hr ribbon being tested currently