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ES1! trade ideas

Day 3 — Trading Only S&P 500 FuturesDay 3 — Trading Only S&P Futures Daily P/L: -142.87 Sleep: 7 hours Emotions: Headache & stress from the morning :thought_balloon: Today’s Trade thoughts: I made a typo when i was putting some orders in from last night that triggered and started the day -300 so I spent most of today just grinding it back again. I think going forward, I am going to make a rule to limit myself of only doing 2 MES MAX during night time if i plan to put orders in because it really sadden the mood when you start the day negative. Overall, today's trading day wasn't that bad, we had bullish structure and AAPL event that carried the market up. I took some shorts at 6355 that didn't work out but eventually made money at the end of the day as i shorted 6375 zones. I have noticed that** max Gamma levels don't truly settle until 11am. ** :bell:News Highlights: *TRUMP TO IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 25% TARIFF ON GOODS FROM INDIA :bar_chart: VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST): 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! @everyone* 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal 11:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 11:40 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 12:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double sell) 1:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal (double buy) :chart_with_upwards_trend: Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6332 = Remain Bullish Below 6315 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
5
ES - August 6th Evening Open / August 7th Daily Trading PlanWe held the 6324 level today and institutional buyers stepped in at this level and we rallied to our targets for the day. We currently have our first support down at 6363 level and an ultra-bull case for tomorrow is to build a flag and break out above 6380 with targets of 6386, 6402+ Ideally, we would pull back overnight and flush 6344, 6323 or the 6315 level and reclaim for a nice move up the levels. Either way, trend is still up, and short-term bulls need to hold 6315 level, or we will probably retest the levels below at 6297, 6280, 6252 and then the Friday's low of 6240. I will update my August 7th trading plan tomorrow am as we need to see what price does in the evening session. My lean is we don't lose 6344, but any flush and recovery of levels outlined we should continue up higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Nq & Es Analysis 06-08-2025 After the OpenAs expected, the first scenario played out — with the Nasdaq pushing higher, pulling back for a retracement, and then targeting the previous day’s high. The only difference was that the S&P 500 initially printed some lows and showed more sluggish behavior compared to the Nasdaq. However, once the market opened and volatility kicked in, price resumed its true direction. Challenging day overall, with some unusual price action. Still, as you can see, the key levels we shared earlier held up beautifully once again. See you tomorrow — 30 minutes before the market opens (09:00 AM) NY TIME!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FTAKAS
ES- August 6th, 2025 - Daily Trading Plan6315 was yesterday's low and our overnight low. It has been tested multiple times and while typically it would be a great place for a flush and reclaim, it has also been tested and is very weak. IF, price breaks below 6315, we might get a quick pop, but I would rather see us flush down to 6296 or 6280 area and then reclaim 6296 for a level-to-level move and back test the 6315 level. IF, price clears 6315 we can continue to retest the 6333 & 6358 levels. We continue to trade in small ranges and until we can clear 6377 or flush Friday's level of 6240 and recover, it will be tough to find good quality setups. We really need to flush the 6240 level for a nice move back up to retest 6315. I will update my session plan after 9:30am open.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Approachable Contracts for Trading Around Fed DecisionsCME Group E-Mini S&P Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) and Micro S&P Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ), #microfutures On July 30th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 4.25-4.50% target range. Investors now turn their focus on whether the Fed will cut rates on the September 16th-17th FOMC meeting. According to CME FedWatch Tool, as of August 6th, there is a 92.4% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in September. My observation: • Before July FOMC, market consensus was no rate cut, with the odds at 95.3% as of July 20th. Investors now overwhelmingly expect rate cuts to come at the next meeting. • Two Fed governors broke the long-run consent and voted against the FOMC decision. Today, I would like to explore two trading strategies focusing on the next Fed decision. We will start by breaking down all possible Fed decisions as follows: 1) Cut rates by 25 basis points (92.4%) 2) No rate cuts (7.6%) 3) All others, such as cutting by 50 bps and raising rates by 25 bps (0%) If we deem the 3rd option to be statistically insignificant, we now have an event with binary outcomes, namely, Cut and No Cut . Since “Cut” is the market consensus, we will translate the possible outcomes as: • Meet market expectations (Cut Rates) • Exceed market expectations (No Cut) Furthermore, financial markets will likely react calmly if the Fed decision meets expectations, while asset prices could swing widely if the FOMC exceeds expectations. Typically, US stock market indexes, interest rate contracts and the US dollar exchange rates are very sensitive to the Fed decisions. Our discussion today will focus on stock indexes. I will follow up on the other two asset classes in future writings. Based on the above analytical framework, we could design two sets of trading strategies: Sell Call Options if a trader expects the Fed to cut rates • Since the decision meets expectations, asset prices would not move a lot. • Options may expire worthiness, which allows sellers to pocket the premium as profit. Sell Futures if a trader expects No Cut • Since the decision exceeds expectations, S&P prices could go down sharply. • With build-in leverage in futures contracts, a trader could realize enhanced profit. Now, let’s explore how to structure trading strategies using S&P futures and options. Hypothetical Fed Decision 1: Meet Expectations Cutting rates is bullish for S&P as it will lower borrowing costs for component companies. However, since market already priced in a Fed cut, stock prices will not move a lot. If a trader shares this view, he could explore selling Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Call Options on CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures ( NYSE:ES ). Each ES contract has a notional value of $50 x S&P 500 Index. On August 6th, the September ES contract (ESU5) is quoted at 6,341, making the notional value at $317,050. • Call options at the 6500-strike are quoted at $42. By selling 1 call, options seller will receive $2,100 in upfront premium (= 42 x 50). • Options expire on September 19th, two days after the FOMC. If ESU5 price does not exceed 6500, options seller will pocket the premium as profit. • Warnings: selling options involves significant risks. Seller could lose more than the premium he collected. To cut losses, seller could buy back at the open market and exit the position. This will avoid losses to accumulate by expiration date. Hypothetical Fed Decision 2: Exceed Expectations Since rate cut is already priced in, an Unchanged decision will likely cause the S&P to fall sharply, as expected future borrowing costs will go up. If a trader shares this view, he could explore selling CME Micro S&P 500 futures ( MSTAR:MES ). Each MES contract has a notional value of $5 x S&P 500 Index. On August 6th, the notional value of ESU5 is $31,705. Buying or selling 1 futures contract requires an upfront margin deposit of $2,135 at the time of this writing. Micro S&P 500 futures are 1/10 in notional comparing to its E-Mini counterpart. With smaller size and lower margin requirement, the micro contracts are more approachable for non-professional traders. At the same time, they also enjoy the leverage built-in the futures contracts. Micro S&P contracts tap into the liquidity pool with the broad S&P contract suite. Hypothetical Trade • Short 1MESU5 at 6,341, and set a stop loss at 6450 • Trader pays $2,135 for initial margin A “Meet” Scenario: S&P go up 1.5% to 6,436 • Short position loss: $475 (= (6436-6341) x 5) • The maximum loss will be $545 if the S&P moves higher, due to the stop-loss feature An “Exceed” Scenario: S&P falls 5% to 6,024 • Short position gain: $1,585 (= (6341-6024) x 5) • The theoretical return is 74.2% (= 1585/2135), excluding transaction fees Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
S&P 500: The Underlying Trend Remains BullishLast week, the S&P 500 index entered a consolidation phase amid a packed fundamental calendar. The Fed’s monetary decision, PCE inflation, the NFP report, and trade negotiations all triggered short-term profit-taking. However, this consolidation has remained technically well-structured, with key supports intact, and the broader trend remains bullish. Let’s conduct a technical assessment as this week unfolds under geopolitical pressure, with the Friday, August 8 ultimatum set for Russia. 1. The underlying trend in the S&P 500 remains bullish above the major support at 6050/6150 points Let’s first examine the different timeframes for the S&P 500 futures contract. The triptych below shows monthly, weekly, and daily candlesticks. All three timeframes send the same message: the underlying trend in the S&P 500 remains bullish as long as the major support at 6050/6150 points holds on a weekly closing basis. This support zone corresponds to the former all-time high from last winter. In the short term, a retest of the support cannot be ruled out before the trend resumes. 2. Quantitative analysis does not show an overbought situation, with the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average still below extreme levels Last week’s consolidation helped deflate a potential overbought condition. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average was approaching an overbought zone, but is now back to 50%, giving the index renewed capacity to resume its bullish trend. 3. The Dow Jones is in an accumulation phase below its all-time high The Dow Jones also shows a promising technical setup, potentially forming a bullish continuation inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A breakout above the 45,000-point resistance is needed to confirm this signal. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index shows a similar technical structure. 4. Retail investor sentiment is still far from euphoric extremes Market tops are always built in euphoria, especially among retail traders. According to the latest data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), buying interest has increased and is slightly above the historical average, but still far from its typical overheating zone. This sentiment indicator confirms that the underlying trend in the S&P 500 remains bullish above the 6050/6150-point support (based on S&P 500 futures). DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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CME_MINI:ES1!
by Swissquote
Day 2 — Trading Only S&P Futures — -$100, Grinding Back from Los Day 2 — Trading Only S&P Futures Daily P/L: -100 Sleep: 8 hours Emotions: Good :thought_balloon: Today’s Trade thoughts: I rushed into a trade thinking 6330 was going to be a good area of support to buy and oversized my position going 5 mes deep in my first trade and adding 5 more at the 48 min MOB at 6325 and got stopped out at the bottom down -400 and pretty much spent the rest of the day grinding back up. Overall market seem to have rejected the higher timeframe resistance and deciding which direction to go. :bell:News Highlights: U.S. STOCKS END LOWER, VIX JUMPS AFTER WEAK ISM SERVICES DATA :bar_chart: VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST): — 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal — 9:40 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal — 9:48 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 11:00 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple buy signal) — 12:50 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal — 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 1:30 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal** :chart_with_upwards_trend: Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6332 = Bullish Below 6310 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
ES - August 5th/6th Opening Session - PlanI had identified a potential bear flag this afternoon and stated that we needed to lose 6324 to start moving lower with targets of 6306 and 6296. This is still valid, and I anticipate the opening session to start that sell off to these targets. IF, price moves above 6336 before breaking below 6324 then the bear flag will be invalid, and we continue up higher before a pull back. I plan to update my August 6th Daily Plan by 7am EST. I am hoping we get a nice pull back overnight so we can find some good setups to long for points tomorrow!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - August 5th - Afternoon Update1:25pm EST - Afternoon Update. Price looks to be building a bear flag from the am sell off. This would be validated with a loss of 6323 level and you could look to short down to 6310, 6298. I would take my profit at 6310, as you could get a short squeeze right below or at the 6298 level. As a long ES trader, shorting for 10pts is not my edge. IF, you like to short that would be what to watch for. I am still looking for a long at 6298 or 6275-77 flush and reclaim of these levels. We need some volatility and we might get some after 2pm today.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by jhill1618
1
Nq & Es Key Levels and Scenarios 05-08-2025 We are currently positioned in a premium zone. This suggests that the price is likely to seek lower levels within discount areas. Therefore, upon the market opening, it will be crucial to observe price action in light of the increased volatility expected to enter the market. The prevailing bias is that prices are likely to decline toward the predefined zones indicated on the chart. Depending on how price reacts at these key levels, we will be able to assess whether the downward movement will continue or if significant support will emerge, potentially leading to a full reversal to the upside. In summary, there may be initial shorting opportunities, followed by potential long setups depending on the market’s reaction. Two scenarios have been outlined. Wishing you all successful and well-considered trades.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FTAKAS
/MES S&P Futures (ChopDay)Good morning guys here we have a 4hr ES Futures chart that I created clearly showing you a Yellow dotted bounding box which shows what I call a No Trade Zone / Institutional Liquidity Grab. In simple terms " Dont Trade / sit on your hands " It seems that we are consolidating and awaiting for market direction either Up or Down, my educated guess is that we may have a little pump but higher probability to the downside based on my studies. You will see wicks above and below the bodies of the 4hr candles, that to me tells a story, what is the story? A day where the market will chop around most likely and take your money it is Bulls too scared to move higher and Bears scared to pull the trigger to the downside thinking they will get trapped but in my eyes the market is overbought and exhausted, it needs a break. Does it mean that it will drop, absolutely NOT, the market can in fact continue to push higher if it wants but in my opinion, it seems that down should be the way at least for the next few weeks or months.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Trade_Wolf
ES - August 5th, 2025 - Daily Trading Plan7:45am EST - Overnight Session Update - Yesterday we reached our main targets of 6325, 6350, 6375. Overnight we have been consolidating in a tight range between 6358-6378. We could get one good flush and recover of 6358 and we can long to 6378, 6400. If we breakout of 6375, we should continue higher to 6400, 6420+. I also would be careful as price has been in a narrow range, we could get a fake breakout above 6375. IF, price breaks out and then returns back inside the 6375 range, we can expect price to sell off and potentially pullback to retest the levels below. I hate trading a new position when price is at the high of the breakout and high of the session. I would rather wait to get a flush of 6358 and recover to long or flush much further down to the 6297 area and flush and recover would be even better. I will update closer to 9:30am EST. My lean is to wait for a flush of 6358 and recover to long back to 6378, 6400.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Day 1 Trading Only S&P Futures — Starting with $200 Profit Day 1 — Trading Only S&P Futures Daily P/L:+ 204 :moneybag: Sleep: 8 hours Emotions: Tired and sored from muay thai. :thought_balloon: Today’s Trade thoughts: I was leaning bearish in the market because we had such strong selling pressure on Friday butonce we broke over the level i posted last week at 6330, I gave up on my bias and I just followed the signals and traded the the X1dd buy signal with @gohawks14 and shorted the Max gamma resistance around 6352 and called a day when i made $200. I think for this week as we start the trading challenge, I want to have one account where i just make $200 and call it a day so this way i can build consistency and get my trading % up. :bell:News Highlights: DOW REBOUNDS NEARLY 600 POINTS, VIX PLUNGES AS U.S. STOCKS END SHARPLY HIGHER ON RATE-CUT OPTIMISM :bar_chart: VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST): 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 10:10 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal 10:40 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 11:40 AM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal (Double buy signal) 11:40 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal 12:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal 1:21 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 2:00 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal :chart_with_upwards_trend: Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6332 = Bullish Below 6300 = Bearish :link: Recap & Charts: www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!
by DiYWALLST
1