A market on the sidelinesThe balanced structure on the daily chart in the S&P 500 implies a market on the sidelines as it waits for fundamental reasons to move directionally up or down.
Trade ideas
Day 50 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Tornado Volatility ModeDay 50 — the market still feels insane after Friday’s 3× ATR move.
Every tick feels like standing in a tornado — calm for a second, then chaos.
I played defense, traded light, and survived with + $122.
I expected things to settle by mid-week, but it’s clear we’re still in high-vol mode. I’m considering widening my stop-losses to 20 points to handle these swings.
Lesson & Mindset
The key takeaway today: not every session is about profit. Sometimes the win is walking away disciplined, keeping your account alive, and sticking to the plan.
Fifty days in, that’s the real progress — showing up, no matter what.
News & Levels
Headline: Gold hit a record high above $4,200 — a reminder that fear and liquidity are still rotating fast.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6730 bullish, below 6665 bearish.
MES, are we going up or down from here, do news matter?With the recent tariff news, it brought uncertainty. I personally would like to see ES to revisit the upper trend line before we go down. This last wave up was so choppy, I couldn't tell if this was a Wave 4 going up and we now just got into wave 5 going down within the corrective A pattern.
Or maybe I am completely wrong and this is wave 4 that only have ABC, and we are in sub wave 1 of the next 12345 structure.
IMO, its best to stay out until we see some kind of momentum. I want to see this break above the upper trendline again to confirm a bull case. Trying to trade a chopped market can often cause confusion and affect your judgement because of the zig zag. If I chase it, I will probably get stop out every time and right after that it will hit my original target.
NQ & ES After Hours Comment Wednesday 15-10-2025After the market opened, price action moved sharply higher, with the NQ taking out Monday’s high.
Following that move, and after 11:00 AM New York time (post our session, which runs from 9:30–11:00 AM), price started to retrace, pulling back into the second blue zone. Notice the market’s sensitivity and responsiveness around those levels.
There was no high-probability setup for me during that window, so I stayed on the sidelines. Later, however, price developed exactly as outlined in the second scenario from this morning’s commentary.
I hope you found the analysis insightful.
See you all tomorrow—45 minutes before the market open.
Stay well, everyone.
PF
NQ & ES Premarket Comment Wednesday 15-10-2025Good morning everyone.
Today, we’re operating within a Premium Zone. The daily bias remains bullish, but price action needs to retrace to lower levels before resuming its rally toward the all-time highs (ATHs) of the indices. This setup offers potential short-term short opportunities.
Possible scenarios:
Scenario A: Price pulls back to the first blue zone, finds support, and then resumes higher toward the ATHs (weekly target).
Scenario B: Price extends lower into the second blue zone before continuing the rally upward.
In either case, we’ll be looking for short opportunities while price trades in this upper zone. Once price reaches the first blue line, we’ll assess whether strong buying interest appears — that will help determine if this is the swing low before the next leg higher.
Today could present multiple opportunities — first catching the initial pullback, and later positioning for the reversal to the upside.
If price approaches the first blue area, remain cautious with long positions. The market might find temporary support there, push slightly higher, and then break below that zone, targeting the lower blue region.
As the session opens, we’ll closely monitor early price action. Once volatility settles and price holds within these levels, we’ll start looking for short setups with clearly defined risk parameters.
This is shaping up to be a solid day for high-probability setups. Stay patient, disciplined, and aligned with your trading model. Approach the charts calmly — don’t chase every move, as doing so can lead to both financial and psychological damage.
Wishing everyone a profitable and focused trading day.
We’ll review and update the outlook in the afternoon session.
Note: If price continues to rise without a pullback, we will remain on the sidelines and take no action.
PF
ES - October 15th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 15th - 6:25am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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I am not going to go into much detail about yesterday as I have detailed out the trades that I took, which aligned with my edge. It was a great short squeeze yesterday and it all played out at the optimal timeframe while I was at my desk.
The overnight low is 6683 and our overnight high is 6732. I stated in the 4:52pm note yesterday that " Any reclaim of 6692-94 would be bullish overnight and give us another attempt at the 6720 level to take price higher." - This is what happened and we have grinded into some overhead resistance at 6732 with 6738-42 being a strong resistance.
Since price grinded slowly higher overnight, my lean is we need a pullback to keep things moving higher.
While I do not rely solely on technical bull/bear flags, the white trendlines that are drawn, could be a bearish structure that could reach 6742-44 area, then pullback to the 6642 area. The white trendline moving up, IF, price reaches it, should give us a nice bounce for points, then we would expect price to lose this level and move lower.
(IF, price does pull back and we take out the 6744-48 level and are successful, any back test should be good for price to move higher, this would also make the bear flag invalid)
Levels I am looking to grab some points at today:
1. Any loss and reclaim of 6705
2. Loss of 6683 and reclaim (maybe getting as low as 6666 and then reclaim 6674)
3. Loss of 6660 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6632 and reclaim (could be the bounce of the white trendline)
5. Loss of 6593 and reclaim (Yesterday's low)
Below those levels and we will most likely be in free fall to retest the 6540 level which could be the last area to give us a bounce.
IF, price loses any levels lower than 6540, you will want to be patient and let price build a base to take a long on the reclaim of a level above.
Key Support Levels - 6720, 6705, 6683, 6674, 6660, 6642, 6632, 6624, 6593, 6575, 6550, 6540
Key Resistance Levels - 6732, 6744-48, 6758, 6778
IF, price rallies above 6732 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
Condor in the Clouds: When the S&P 500 Takes a Nap1 – The Setup Nobody Expected
The S&P 500 just pulled a classic “I’m tired” move. After that big drop, it stopped running and started hovering between 6,437 and 6,873 — a cozy sideways zone filled with Fibonacci levels, Floor Trader Pivots, and UFOs (yep, UnFilled Orders, not flying saucers).
Markets do that sometimes — they sprint, then nap. And when they nap, option sellers quietly collect theta while everyone else wonders when the action will come back.
2 – The Play: Short Iron Condor
When the market’s stuck in the middle, the Short Iron Condor is like putting walls on both sides of the price. Here’s the idea — you get paid if ES stays in between.
How it’s built:
Sell a Call above resistance
Buy a Call a little higher (that’s your safety net)
Sell a Put below support
Buy a Put a little lower (another safety net)
Boom — now you’ve boxed the market. If it behaves, you earn. If it doesn’t, your risk is capped.
3 – Why It Works Right Now
The Condor thrives when volatility chills out. That’s exactly what ES is doing — taking a breath after chaos.
Theta decay: your invisible ally, eating away at option value day by day.
Range stability: resistance ≈ 6,873, support ≈ 6,437.
Low Vega: volatility tantrums matter less.
You don’t need fireworks — you need patience. This trade doesn’t scream, it hums.
4 – The Fine Print (a.k.a. Risk Management)
Keep it real:
Size positions by max risk, not by excitement level.
Don’t wait for expiration — grab 50–60% profit and fly away.
When the market is calm, the Condor glides. When storms build, fold your wings.
5 – For the Data Nerds
If you love precision:
ES tick = $12.50
MES tick = $1.25
Margins ≈ $21k and $2.1k respectively (subject to volatility).
And yes — theta doesn’t care which one you trade; it just wants time to pass.
6 – The Takeaway
Markets don’t always trend. Sometimes they just drift — and that’s okay.
In those moments, the Short Iron Condor turns boredom into strategy.
So, if the S&P 500 keeps “floating in the clouds,” don’t chase it — collect from it.
Want More Depth?
If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one:
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: ES Condor in the Clouds1 — The Market in a Cloud Layer
The S&P 500 (E-mini and Micro E-mini) futures have recently been caught in a curious atmospheric pattern — not of weather, but of price action. After a strong sell-off shook the market a few days ago, both Fibonacci extensions and retracement zones now cluster densely above and below the current price. When these are joined by multiple Floor Trader Pivot Points and Unfilled Order (UFO) zones sitting in similar regions, a clear message emerges: this market is potentially trapped in a range.
Resistance has been repeatedly observed near 6,873, while the lower boundary around 6,437 continues to attract buyers. The index seems to be trapped between Fibs — a typical post-volatility consolidation phase.
For traders who understand that sideways markets can be just as valuable as trending ones, this environment presents an opportunity. Instead of chasing direction, the goal becomes to capture time decay while staying within defined risk limits.
2 — The Strategy: Short Iron Condor Fundamentals
A Short Iron Condor combines two credit spreads:
A short call spread above current price
A short put spread below current price
Together, they create a “no-fly zone” for the underlying — a region where the trader earns maximum profit if price remains between the inner strikes.
This position benefits from:
Stable or neutral price movement
Time decay (theta)
Declining implied volatility
The Iron Condor offers defined risk and defined reward, making it a powerful candidate for range-bound markets like the current ES setup. While the maximum gain is limited to the net premium collected, the maximum loss is also capped, making this a risk-defined non-directional strategy.
Because this structure has both call and put spreads, it offers low Vega exposure — meaning it’s not overly sensitive to volatility shocks. For intermediate traders, this makes it a comfortable way to step beyond simple single-leg strategies and into the world of multi-leg, theta-driven structures.
3 — The Setup: Building the ES Condor
For this idea, we’re looking at the ES (E-mini S&P 500 Futures) options expiring on November 13.
The structure is built as follows:
Sell 6880 Call @ 34.43
Buy 6890 Call @ 31.69
Buy 6430 Put @ 55.32
Sell 6440 Put @ 57.07
This results in a net credit, generating the potential for a maximum profit of 4.49 points (per spread), while the maximum risk stands at -5.51 points. The reward-to-risk ratio comes to approximately 0.8:1, with a statistical win rate of 52.6% based on the current volatility surface, and the Breakeven points: 6,436 and 6,884.
As long as the ES price remains between these levels by expiration, the structure will achieve profitability. The Iron Condor works best when volatility remains stable or contracts — a condition currently supported by the post-drop equilibrium visible in implied volatility readings across near-term expirations.
4 — Chart Context: Technical Landscape Supporting the Range
The chart of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) reveals a tight compression zone forming between Fibonacci extensions and retracement levels above @ 0.618 (≈6,868) and below @ 0.618 (≈6,437). This overlap with Floor Trader Pivots — specifically R1 at 6,873 and S1 at 6,488 — paints a classic range structure. This setup can be the natural habitat for an Iron Condor.
While directional traders may feel frustrated by sideways movement, option sellers can see this as a period of controlled opportunity — where theta decay compensates for the market’s hesitation.
In other words, as long as ES continues to “hover in the clouds,” the Condor quietly collects premium.
5 — CME Product Specifications and Margins
Understanding the underlying contracts is essential when selecting between E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) and Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) for this options setup.
E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Futures
Tick Size: 0.25 = $12.50 per tick
Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours (Sunday–Friday, CME Globex)
Margin (approx.): $21,000 per contract
Micro E-mini S&P 500 (MES) Futures
Contract Size: 1/10 of ES
Tick Size: 0.25 = $1.25 per tick
Margin (approx.): $2,100 per contract
(Margins may vary slightly depending on volatility and broker policies.)
For smaller accounts or for traders looking to practice scaling and hedging, the MES provides a highly capital-efficient alternative to ES.
When executing the Short Iron Condor, traders may also consider margin offsets if the structure is risk-defined — a benefit when using portfolio margin accounts. However, margin usage will vary by broker and account type.
6 — Risk Management: Keeping the Condor in the Clouds
Every Iron Condor begins with a disciplined approach to risk.
Here’s how it can be managed:
Position Sizing: Determine exposure based on the maximum loss, not the credit received. For instance, risking 1–2% of account equity per structure keeps risk contained even during volatility spikes.
Exit Before Expiration: Avoid gamma risk in the final days. Closing the trade when 50–60% of the maximum profit is achieved can reduce time risk while locking in gains.
Adjustments: If price nears a breakeven zone (6,436 or 6,884), traders can consider rolling the threatened side further away or closing half of the position to reduce delta exposure.
Volatility Awareness: A volatility spike can temporarily pressure the mark-to-market value.
Because the Iron Condor is short Vega, it benefits from a calm or contracting volatility regime.
When markets are calm, this strategy works beautifully; when storms approach, it’s time to bring the Condor to the ground.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
ES (SPY, SPX) Analyses, Key Levels, Setups for Wed (Oct 15)Context
Price is currently positioned just below a light supply band and above a cluster of intraday supports. I’m planning for a balance-to-break day: either a push through the overhead resistance or a drop back into yesterday’s lower range.
Event Windows (volatility timing only)
• London: 02:00–05:00 ET
• NY AM: 09:30–11:00 ET
• NY PM: 13:30–16:00 ET (watch for afternoon headlines/ Fed summaries)
(Use these as timing windows; trade the levels & structure.)
Playbook Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15m→5m→1m)
1) A++ Continuation LONG — 6718–6725 → 6740–6748
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6725, 5m pullback holds, 1m HL entry.
Invalidation: below 15m trigger wick / ≈6712.
Targets: TP1 6740–6748, TP2 6790–6800 (runner).
Notes: Only take first clean acceptance; avoid chasing if it “pop-and-fails.”
2) A+ First-Touch FADE SHORT — 6740–6748
Trigger: Sweep into 6740–6748, 5m re-close back inside, 1m LH entry.
Invalidation: through ≈6750–6752 with 15m body hold.
Targets: TP1 6725→6700, TP2 6689 (runner to 6666 if pressure persists).
3) A Bounce LONG — 6666 / 6658–6660
Trigger: Stop-run flush into 6666 (or 6658–6660) and instant reclaim; 1m confirmation, then 5m hold.
Invalidation: clean 15m body below 6658.
Targets: TP1 6689, TP2 6700, TP3 6718–6725.
4) A++ Breakdown SHORT — 6666 → 6623
Trigger: 15m acceptance below 6666, retest fails, 1m LH entry.
Invalidation: back above 6666 on a 15m close.
Targets: TP1 6623–6625, TP2 6593.
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Session Checklist
• Start with the 6700 pivot: who controls opening drive?
• At 6718–6725, decide between acceptance (trend) vs rejection (fade).
• Respect 6666 on first touch for a bounce attempt; flip bias only on 15m acceptance below.
• If TP1 hits, take size off and protect the runner; don’t trail before TP2.
===
Bias Summary
• Above 6725: constructive, looking for 6740–6748 → 6790–6800.
• Between 6700 and 6725: rotational; trade the edges.
• Below 6689: sellers pressing; eyes on 6666.
• Accepted below 6666: opens 6623–6593 path.
Good trading. Manage risk; two attempts per level, max.
Buyers returnedBuyers returned to the daily chart of the S&P 500 on Tuesday. The challenge is can buyers follow through to the upside. The objective is 6750.
ES UpdateLooks like there were some itchy trigger fingers on the sell button. Looked like a classic pump and dump setup with MFI hitting overbought, and a few firms hit the sell button because Trump said something about Chinese cooking oil.
You gotta figure they can't tank futures 2 days in a row, so the market has to gap up a little. Might short something tomorrow.
NQ & ES After Hours Comment Tuesday 14-10-2025As you can see, right after the market opened, price finally swept London’s low and then triggered a strong rally, hitting both of our projected targets for the day — at least on the ES.
The NQ, however, is still struggling to reach yesterday’s high. Hopefully, you managed to capture some profits today. Nothing more needs to be said — the chart speaks for itself.
Back here tomorrow at 08:45 AM NY time (45 minutes ahead of the market open).
PF
S&P 500 Testing Key Support: What Traders Need to Know About SupThe S&P 500 delivered a fascinating signal on Friday, one that technical traders should be paying close attention to.
The market's behavior at this critical juncture reveals important clues about the ongoing battle between supply and demand forces, and what we might expect in the coming sessions.
Friday's trading bar displayed two critical characteristics: a high-volume signature combined with a strong demand tail. This combination points to an attempt to bounce at a key support level, suggesting that buyers are stepping in aggressively. The entire price action pattern indicates a significant testing process is underway in the S&P 500.
The demand tail itself was substantial—approximately 75 S&P points.
That's a considerable move that demonstrates demand instantly producing an upward result on what was otherwise a down bar. When we see this kind of opposing force emerge during a decline, it creates the expectation of some kind of reaction higher.
Looking at comparable bar patterns as analogs, we can start to form expectations about what comes next. If we treat these formations as mirror analogs, there's a particular sequence worth noting.
Following the previous pattern, the next bar was a non-follow-through to the upside, which developed into a testing bar.
Now, we're expecting an up bar as a mirror image of that earlier pattern. However, volume behavior will be crucial here.
We know that volume needs to fall during this phase, and we're seeing more volume declining than in the previous comparable case. This volume characteristic suggests we should be expecting some kind of retest first before any sustained move higher.
The current structure is considerably more complex than simple pattern recognition might suggest.
We could see several different scenarios unfold:
First, there's the possibility of testing today's lows. If the market proves stronger than expected, we could simply continue the sequence of up bars without further downside testing. So far, demand is coming into the market and we're attempting to improve the technical picture.
The question remains: could we experience another down day? That possibility certainly exists, but the demand characteristics we've observed suggest buyers are becoming more aggressive at these support levels.
As tomorrow's session unfolds, traders should focus on volume patterns and price behavior relative to Friday's low. The interaction between supply and demand at this support level will determine whether we see a simple retest or a more complex consolidation pattern before the next directional move.
The key takeaway for S&P 500 traders is that we're in an active testing phase where demand has shown its hand with significant force. How supply responds to this demand will shape the market's near-term trajectory and provide valuable clues about the strength of this support level.
ES UpdateNo TACO Tuesday!
In fact MFI is rising premarket which means it could wind up falling even lower than the gap fill. (Don't ask me why MFI sometimes goes the opposite way off hours, I don't know. But during market hours MFI and RSI always go the same direction.)
COngrats if you shorted yesterday, I'm all cash.
ES - October 14th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 14th - 6:20am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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ES gapped up on Sunday evening and we were range bound all day waiting patiently on a pullback. We reached our 6632 first target from yesterday overnight but have not had follow through and we now look like we need to close the gap at 6600 at some point today.
Overnight session high was 6720 and our low as of typing this plan is currently 6624. Ideally, we can continue to fill the gap, flush 6540 level, maybe down to 6514, 6495, or a lower level and then reclaim the immediate level above. IF, price does not flush 6540, we need to look for a gap fill and reclaim of 6624. We could also see a quick flush down to 6000, then a reclaim of 6607 would also be potential spot to grab points higher.
I do expect a short squeeze today and I will be patiently waiting to see what price does in the first 30 mins of NYSE Open.
Key Levels for today to grab points:
1. Loss of 6624 and reclaim for points higher
2. Gap closed around 6000 with a reclaim of 6607
3. Loss of 6591 and reclaim for points higher
4. Loss of 6540 and reclaim of 6549 for points higher
IF, price loses any levels lower than 6540, you will want to be patient and let price build a base to take a long on the reclaim of a level above.
Key Support Levels - 6624, 6607, 6600, 6591, 6540, 6514, 6495
Key Resistance Levels - 6632, 6643, 6653, 6674, 6688, 6705, 6720
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Levels, Setups for Tue (Oc 14)News & Event Map (ET)
• 06:00 NFIB Small-Business Optimism (Sept).
• 08:45 Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman remarks.
• 12:20 Fed Chair Powell keynote.
• Mid-day U.S. T-bill auctions (6-wk, 13-/26-wk close mid-day).
• Backdrop: Fresh U.S.–China port fee headlines add a macro risk-off/risk-on toggle.
• Earnings: Early-season, light but picking up (e.g., Bank OZK, ESLT, NEWT).
Read: plan London 02:00–05:00, NY AM 09:30–11:00, PM 13:30–16:00. Avoid initiating during Powell’s window unless already risk-reduced.
For overnight London session:
1) A Bounce (Tier-3) — Long from 6,661–6,672 (only on exhaustion + reclaim)
• Trigger: Flush into the band → 1m reclaim → 5m up-close.
• Invalidation/SL: Below 6,653.
• TP1: 6,689–6,692 (take 70%, runner BE).
• TP2: 6,706–6,710.
• Note: If the stop required to the 15m wick makes TP1 < 2R, skip.
2) Reclaim-Fail Short (Tier-1 quality) — Short on 6,689–6,692 retest-fail
• Trigger: Pop back into 6,689–6,692, 15m can’t hold above, 5m rolls over; 1m LH entry.
• SL: Above 6,696–6,698.
• TP1: 6,672 → 6,666.
• TP2: 6,661.
• Stretch: 6,640–6,650 if momentum persists.
3) Breakdown Continuation (Tier-1) — Short on 15m acceptance below 6,661
• Trigger: 15m full-body close < 6,661, then 5m retest holds below.
• SL: Back above 6,666–6,668.
• TP1: 6,640–6,650.
• TP2: Trail for a bleed toward mid-650s if tape stays heavy.
For NY session:
Tier-1 A++ (Major) — Short at 6,718–6,725
• Trigger (Rejection-Fade): 15m close back below 6,718 after a wick through; 5m re-close lower with LH; 1m first pullback entry.
• SL: Above 6,730 (±0.25–0.50).
• TP1: 6,689–6,692 (close 70% → runner BE).
• TP2: 6,661–6,672.
• TP3: 6,645–6,650.
• Invalidation: 15m full-body acceptance ≥6,725 (don’t fade; flip to the long continuation play).
Tier-1 A++ (Major) — Long continuation on 6,725+ acceptance
• Trigger (Acceptance-Go): 15m full-body close ≥6,725 → 5m pullback holds 6,718–6,721 and re-closes up → 1m HL entry.
• SL: Below 6,712 (±0.25–0.50).
• TP1: 6,735–6,745.
• TP2: 6,760 area.
• TP3: 6,780 stretch.
• Invalidation: 15m close back inside 6,718 after entry.
Tier-2 A+ Bounce — Quick-reclaim long at 6,689–6,692
• Trigger: Sweep/flush into the band, instant reclaim on 1m → 5m up-close.
• SL: Below 6,682.
• TP1: 6,707–6,710.
• TP2: 6,718–6,725.
• TP3: 6,735.
• Size: ¾ standard.
Tier-3 A Bounce — Exhaustion flush long at 6,661–6,672
• Trigger: Capitulation wick + 5m bullish re-close from the band.
• SL: 6,653.
• TP1: 6,689–6,692.
• TP2: 6,706–6,710.
• TP3: 6,718.
• Size: ½ standard.
PA projections:
Market Analysis: London to New York Trading Session
London Session (02:00–05:00)
In the early hours, the base case scenario for the market suggests a modest advance to the 6,661–6,672 range, followed by a brief spike to 6,689–6,692. However, resistance is expected to kick in at this level, potentially leading to a reversal back to 6,672 and down to 6,661. In a bearish scenario, if there is a 15-minute acceptance below 6,661, we may target 6,640–6,650 as potential support levels.
Pre-New York Session (08:00–09:30)
As long as prices remain below 6,689, we anticipate the formation of a lower high beneath 6,700, exerting downward pressure towards 6,661. There is a heightened risk of a flush toward 6,645–6,650 during this period.
New York Morning Session (09:30–11:00)
The bearish sentiment is likely to persist if prices remain under 6,689, with selling opportunities expected towards 6,661 and the 6,645–6,650 range. The momentum in this phase will determine whether we establish a base or continue to decline. Conversely, a bullish alternative may emerge if there is a sustained 15-minute close above 6,689 for 30 to 60 minutes, which could pivot the market towards a buying strategy, targeting 6,706–6,710 and possibly testing 6,718–6,725. A decisive move above 6,725 would shift the focus to 6,735–6,745.
Key Levels to Watch
Bullish Scenario: A successful flip to bullish sentiment would require two consecutive 15-minute closes above 6,689, with pullbacks holding at this level.
Bearish Confirmation: A bearish confirmation would manifest through a 15-minute full-body close below 6,661, followed by a failed retest from below.
Conclusion: The outlook remains inherently biased towards a sell-rallies strategy throughout the trading day from London into New York, as long as prices stay below 6,689. A recovery and sustained hold above this threshold would redirect attention to tests of 6,706 and 6,718.
Day 49 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$640 Cooling OffRecap & Trades
Day 49 — after Friday’s crazy volatility, I decided to slow things down. The market was still moving 2–3× its normal range, so I only took setups around large moving averages and key Gamma zones.
Executed clean, locked profits early, and ended the day +$640.
Lesson & Mindset
The main lesson today: discipline isn’t only about cutting losses — it’s about knowing when to press pause.
After a big week of volatility, patience and smaller positions keep you in the game.
News & Levels
Headline: Bessent said the U.S.–China relationship remains strong — which helped keep markets steady today.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6735 bullish, below 6665 bearish.
Follow-through is expectedFollow through by buyers on the daily chart in the S&P 500 for Tuesday is the next expected behavior and the objective to the upside is 6750.
ES UpdateLooks like another TACO trade, I noticed that ES had formed a wedgie and probably should've dropped soon anyways.
TACO or no TACO, I can't get bullish with such a huge open gap below, cashed out of everything because I made a bunch of money on gold on a HUGE bet. Gonna wait for indicators to tell me something.... I think MFI will hit overbought sometime this week.
Also, watch for financials earnings tomorrow morning.
S&P 500 E-mini Inside Day: Consolidation Before Next Big MoveToday’s price action formed a classic inside day on the 30-minute chart, signaling market indecision and a potential buildup before a significant breakout or breakdown. Watch key volume profile levels and Fibonacci retracements for clues on the next directional move. Market breadth remains mixed, so confirmation on a break of the inside day range will be crucial for trading decisions.
How to Trade with Stochastics in TradingViewMaster Stochastics using TradingView’s charting tools in this comprehensive tutorial from Optimus Futures.
The Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that helps traders identify potential turning points in the market by comparing the current closing price to the recent high–low range. It’s designed to show when momentum may be shifting from buyers to sellers — or vice versa.
What You’ll Learn:
- Understanding the Stochastic Oscillator as a momentum tool plotted from 0 to 100
- How the %K line represents the current close relative to the recent high–low range
- How the %D line acts as a moving average of %K and serves as a signal line
- Key thresholds: readings above 80 suggest overbought conditions, while below 20 suggest oversold conditions
- Why overbought and oversold levels are not automatic buy or sell signals — and how strong trends can keep Stochastics extended
- Identifying bullish and bearish crossovers between %K and %D
- Spotting bullish and bearish divergence between price and momentum
- Using Stochastics to confirm trend direction across different timeframes
- How to add Stochastics on TradingView via the Indicators menu
- Understanding the default settings (14, 3, 3) and how adjusting them affects responsiveness
- Practical examples on the E-mini S&P 500 futures chart
- Applying Stochastics across multiple timeframes — daily, weekly, or intraday — for confirmation signals
This tutorial will benefit futures traders, swing traders, and technical analysts who want to incorporate Stochastics into their trading process.
The concepts covered may help you identify momentum shifts, potential reversal zones, and trend confirmations across different markets and timeframes.
Learn more about futures trading with TradingView:
optimusfutures.com
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only.
Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools — not forecasting instruments.
S&P500: Rebound Offers Relief, But Downtrend Likely to ContinueThe S&P 500 managed to recover somewhat, which helped to partially offset the recent sell-offs. However, we continue to expect the ongoing wave (4) in magenta to extend further to the downside. We anticipate that the low of this wave will be reached within the similarly colored long Target Zone (6,055 points – 5,822 points), before a new upward move begins that should push the index above resistance at 6,812 points. At that level, the magenta five-wave sequence should be completed, and the high of the higher-level wave (III) in blue should be established. Given recent price action, we have added a bearish alternative scenario to the chart. This scenario suggests that the most recent high has already marked the end of the large wave alt.(III) in blue, and that the index has since entered the corrective wave alt.(IV) . If support at 5,528 points is breached, this scenario will be triggered. Long positions within the magenta Target Zone could therefore be protected with a stop set 1% below the lower edge of the zone to limit risk.
NQ & ES After Hours Comment Monday 13-10-2025As mentioned earlier, we just witnessed one of the weakest consolidation sessions of the year. There was virtually no meaningful price action — nothing significant could be done from a trading perspective.
The best decision was to stay out of the market entirely. In the end, the secondary scenario played out, with the price drifting slowly and lethargically higher throughout the session.
Back here tomorrow at 08:45 AM NY time (45 minutes ahead of the market open).
PF
