ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setups for Thu (Nov 20th)Market Bias Analysis
The current short-term bias is constructively bullish, yet it remains contingent on upcoming events. Recent momentum has been bolstered by Nvidia's exceptional earnings report and a significant intraday reversal in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES). As long as the 6,670–6,680 range holds during any pullbacks, the path of least resistance appears to be upward. It is important to note that the broader daily trend is still bullish, unless we see a decisive breach below the key demand zone of 6,520–6,510 in the ES.
Market Overview
In a notable shift following a four-day decline, today's trading session exhibited a renewed bullish sentiment. The E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) printed a robust green daily candle, bouncing off a low of approximately 6,622.00 yesterday to close near 6,740.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart reveals that the recent selloff has established a lower high without breaking the prior significant higher low. The reaction low remains comfortably above the daily 1.272 extension cluster situated around 6,521.25. On the 4-hour chart, the price action has transitioned from a pattern of lower lows to a new higher low, currently pushing into the Price Quotient Median (PQM) and Price Quotient High (PQH) band, just below previous 4-hour supply levels. Observing the 1-hour chart, today's trading reflected a definitive trend day upward, characterized by a consistent series of higher lows and higher highs, culminating the session near the 1-hour 1.272 Fibonacci extension at 6,743.75.
Macroeconomic factors played a crucial role in this market turnaround, particularly after Nvidia reported stunning Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations, generating approximately $57 billion in revenue. The company’s strong AI-driven outlook and positive after-hours performance alleviated concerns that the recent downturn in technology stocks signified the onset of a broader unwinding of the AI bubble. This development contributed to a rally in index futures as the session drew to a close.
Nonetheless, the overarching theme remains one of valuation pressures and interest rate concerns. Despite breaking a four-session losing streak, market participants are poised for tomorrow’s data, which will be pivotal in shaping the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory moving forward.
Scheduled Events (Tomorrow – Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025)
Tomorrow’s docket is heavy and directly relevant for ES:
• 8:30 a.m. ET – September Employment Situation (delayed jobs report)
The September nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, postponed by the government shutdown, are finally released. This is the only full jobs report the Fed will have before its December meeting, and markets are treating it as a major verdict on the labour market.
• Other U.S. data (during the morning/early afternoon)
Various calendars flag building permits / housing data, regional manufacturing (e.g., Philadelphia Fed), and existing home sales clustered through the U.S. session – all secondary to the jobs report but able to add fuel if they confirm or contradict the labour story.
• Fed speakers / meetings
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has a scheduled fireside chat around midday (12:40 p.m. ET).
• The Fed also has a closed Board meeting at 1:15 p.m. ET and a two-day Cleveland Fed financial-stability conference that can generate headlines.
Net: the jobs report is the main event; Fed comments will colour the move rather than drive it on their own.
Setups (A++ Concepts)
These are two high-conviction, rule-style ideas you can plug into your own framework. Price levels are exact from your charts.
A++ Setup 1 – Continuation Long from Value Pocket
Entry trigger concept:
Look for a sweep into the chosen band (e.g., wick into 6,690–6,695 or down into 6,663–6,668) followed by a strong 15m/5m bullish close back above 6,700. That shows buyers defending value and rejecting a deeper rotation into S3.
Risk / invalidation:
Structural invalidation if ES closes the hour below 6,652.50 (Y-POC) and cannot reclaim 6,668. In practice, a tight stop can sit just under 6,652.00 if entering from 6,690–6,705, or under 6,645.00 if using the deeper S2 pocket.
Targets:
• TP1: 6,743.75 (1H 1.272)
• TP2: 6,777.00 (1H 1.618)
• TP3: 6,813.50 (1H 2.0)
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A++ Setup 2 – Short Fade from 1H Extension Cluster
Entry zone:
Primary sell pocket: 6,777.00–6,813.50
(1H 1.618 to 2.0 extension cluster.)
Risk / invalidation:
Structural invalidation above 6,825–6,830 (clear 1H/4H acceptance beyond the 2.0 extension).
A practical stop can sit around 6,828.00 if entering inside the band.
Targets:
• TP1: 6,743.75 (1H 1.272 / prior extension)
• TP2: 6,683.50–6,690.00 (NYPM high / S1 top)
• TP3: 6,659.00–6,664.75 (VWAP/value pocket S2)
Narrative:
If Nvidia’s beat triggers a euphoric push straight into the upper fib level but the tape immediately rejects that strength, the market is saying “good news already in the price.” This setup expresses the view that the real gravity is lower, back toward value and potentially into S3 if macro data disappoint.
