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ES1! trade ideas

Day 10 — Trading Only S&P Futures | $200+ Goal HitWelcome to Day 10 of Trading Only S&P Futures! After waking up super early and not getting back to sleep, I spent most of my morning going through 13F filings to see where hedge funds are putting their money. The trading day started strong — market structure flipped bearish and price action followed perfectly. I missed the exact market bottom by just 2 points, but patience paid off. I eventually caught the reversal back to the 5-min MOB and closed the day with a +212.54 gain — hitting the $200 daily goal I’ve been aiming for all week. 📈 What you’ll learn How to stay patient after missing a perfect entry Using market structure & MOB zones together Why having a daily profit target helps discipline Combining trading with ongoing market research ⏰ Timestamps 0:00 — Intro & Day 10 Recap 0:50 — Early Start & Hedge Fund 13F Research 1:40 — Market Structure Sets the Tone 2:10 — Missing the Bottom by 2 Points 3:00 — Catching the Reversal at 5-min MOB 4:00 — Key Levels for Tomorrow 4:30 — Closing Thoughts 📰 News Highlights FED CHAIR CANDIDATE MARC SUMERLIN SUPPORTS 50BPS RATE CUT DUE TO INVERSION OF CURVE 🔔 VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST) 8:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 9:39 AM VXAlgo Market Structure flipped bearish - 9:31 9:40 AM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal 11:00 AM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal 12:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Sell Signal 12:50 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal 1:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6460 = Remain Bullish Below 6440 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES - August 15th - Daily Trade Plan5:45am EST - Daily Trade Plan - Overnight Session Our overnight session opened around 6488 and have grinded up to 6508 (6pts shy of original target) and are currently back testing the 6488-6492 support that was a strong resistance the past couple of days. I expect price to hold the overnight session support in red; flush then reclaim this level to continue to our targets in green above (6514, 6525). We really want to hold the next level down at the 6473 yellow support and trendline in white. Below there we will want to get out of the way, let price find a level in yellow, flush, build a base and rally after reclaiming the nearest yellow support/resistance line on the chart. As mentioned, this week it is OPEX today. Can be a tricky trading day, so wait for price to come to the levels and work the plan as price dictates the direction it wants to go. I will update around 10am after NYSE open settles out.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
ES1! Plan — Fri Aug 15 | OPEX + U. Mich (10:00 ET). Key levelsES held above 6480 and is pressing into 6490s ahead of monthly OPEX and U. Michigan Sentiment at 10:00 ET. Yesterday’s hot PPI (3.3% YoY) keeps rates sticky; 6500 is a logical magnet/pin. Levels: • Sell zones: 6492–6495, 6502–6506 (watch 6500). • Buy zones: 6483–6486, 6476–6480, 6468–6472. A++ Setups (≥15-pt TP1): 1. Short 6492–6495 (or 6502–6506) on absorption + LH/ChoCH → TP1 6477–6480, TP2 6468–6472. 2. Long 6476–6480 (or defended 6483–6486) on absorption + HH/VWAP reclaim → TP1 6492–6495, TP2 6502–6506. Risk: Stop 6–8 pts beyond zones or ≥1.25× 1-min ATR past last swing. Scale 40–50% at TP1; BE+2 on balance; trail swings. Event risk: 10:00 ET U. Mich; late-day OPEX flows (14:00–16:00) and MOC around 15:50 ET. Not financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Day 9 — Trading Only S&P Futures — Small Win, Staying DisciplineWelcome to Day 9 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today was a slower day for me. I had a meeting in the morning, didn’t start trading until after 11, and took a loss right away on my first trade. Instead of forcing trades, I decided to step back, protect my gains from the week, and focus on other projects. I still managed to close the day +93.03, keeping my consistency goal intact. The endgame here is to build a system where I can copy trade 10 accounts at once, making $100–$200 per day. 📈 What you’ll learn Why stepping away can be a winning move Importance of avoiding revenge trading after a loss Long-term consistency over short-term action Vision for scaling to multiple accounts ⏰ Timestamps 0:00 — Intro & Day 9 Recap 0:40 — Why I Started Late Today 1:20 — First Loss & Market Read 2:00 — Decision to Step Back Early 3:00 — Consistency Over Aggression 3:30 — Key Levels for Tomorrow 📰 News Highlights Traders are still pricing in a 90% likelihood that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps next month despite the hottest PPI reading in three years. 🔔 VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST) 8:32 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 10:57 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 11:50 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal (double signal) 12:30 PM VXAlgo ES X3DD Sell Signal 1:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 1:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6460 = Remain Bullish Below 6440 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES- August 14th - Daily Trade Plan7:25am EST Price has built up an overnight base between 6476 and 6490. PPI coming out this am and we could keep grinding higher or Ideally we get a loss of 6477 and reclaim to setup a nice opportunity for 10+ points and retest the 6502 high yesterday with potential upside targets of 6514, 6525, 6539. I will update my thoughts after PPI is released. I am first looking for a flush below overnight low and reclaim or we will need to see a quick flush of lower levels at 6452, 6437 or levels shown by the yellow support levels on the chart as areas we could flush and move higher. Below 6397 and we could continue lower. IF, price is falling fast, I would get out the way and let price find support at a level and put in a good base to build and work higher. My lean is we continue higher but first we need a flush to scare holders and push prices higher as we head into Friday OPEX. I could see us potentially spiking to 6502, 6514 after PPI then come back into the overnight range after the NYSE open. I won't be guessing or chasing, I will just be focused on how price acts and will wait for my entry to enter. IF, price loses 6437 area and doesn't reclaim, it might need to head to 6409 or 6391 area to setup a strong back test. Update around 10am EST.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Tomorrow’s Playbook: Levels, News Bias & Scenarios 08/14/2025Summary: Bias = Neutral→Bullish while above 6,464–6,466 and the 15m 200-EMA (6,459). A clean 5m/15m acceptance above 6,491/6,500 favors continuation; otherwise expect a data-driven sweep into 6,475–6,468 to test demand. Scenarios & Triggers (rule-based) 1) Continuation breakout • Trigger: 5m close > 6,491 → probe 6,496–6,500. • Validation: 15m acceptance above 6,500 (no immediate rejection). • Targets: 6,502–6,505 first; stretch 6,512/6,520 if momentum persists. • Management: If price reclaims 6,491 from above after a retest, momentum likely intact. 2) Rotation to demand (buy-the-dip if structure holds) • Trigger: Rejection at 6,489–6,491 with 5m close back inside range. • Path: 6,482 → 6,475.5 → 6,468; watch order-flow absorption or an FVG fill inside 6,464–6,466. • Validation: Bullish 5m close from the box and 15m structure holds above 6,459. • Targets on bounce: Return to 6,489–6,491, then 6,496–6,500. 3) Bearish flip (lower-probability without data shock) • Trigger (strict): 15m bearish confirmation and sustained acceptance below 6,459 (15m 200-EMA). • Path: Open the door to a deeper mean-reversion leg toward prior breakout bases (next map would be built after the break). • Note: No shorts without that 15m confirmation per protocol. Educational only — not financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Day 8 — Trading Only S&P Futures — From -400 to +155Welcome to Day 8 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today was a battle of patience and discipline. I started the day with a -400 loss from an overnight short order that got stopped out before the market even opened. It was tempting to close up shop, but I traded small, stayed disciplined, and waited for the right setup. Once I saw the X7 Sell Signal align with X3 Bearish Structure, I sized up — turning the day from deep red to +155 before fees. 📈 What you’ll learn How to manage a big overnight loss without spiraling The importance of sizing down until confidence returns Using structure + signal alignment for A+ setups Patience in clawing back losses ⏰ Timestamps 0:00 — Intro & Day 8 Recap 0:40 — The Overnight Loss & Mindset Shift 1:40 — Clawing Back With Small Trades 2:20 — The X7 + X3 Bearish Alignment Trade 3:00 — Market News & Impact 3:30 — Key Levels for Tomorrow 📰 News Highlights DOW jumps over 400 points, VIX falls as stocks end higher on rate cut bets. 🔔 VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST) 3:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 9:42 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal 10:00 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 10:26 AM VXAlgo ES X7 Sell signal 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 11:20 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double buy) 1:25 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal 2:13 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6440 = Remain Bullish Below 6410 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ES - August 13th - Daily Trade PlanWe built an overnight base between 6462 and 6475. We broke out of this and have grinded higher into the 6484 target we have been looking for this week. PPI coming out this am and we could keep grinding higher or Ideally we get a loss of 6462 and reclaim to setup a nice opportunity for 10+ points and retest the highs of the day and potential target 6492, 6503+. I will update my thoughts after PPI is released. I am first looking for a flush below overnight low and reclaim or looking at 6452, 6437 or 6424 level as shown by the yellow support levels on the chart as areas we could flush and move higher. Below 6397 and we could continue lower. My lean is we continue higher, but first need a flush to scare holders and push prices higher as we head into Friday OPEX. Update around 10am EST.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
12
Day 7 Trading Only S&P Futures — Trusting Structure Over GreedWelcome to Day 7 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today was a mixed day with a small loss of -$16.65. I started strong, up $133 early on, but after a big push up, I expected the market structure to flip bearish and missed a key long entry. Later, I shorted the 6451 resistance but let greed get the best of me, holding too long and turning a winner into a loss. The key lesson? Trust the market structure and the double down (DD) signals — don’t fight the system. 📈 What you’ll learn Why trusting structure and signals beats guessing the market How greed can sabotage even well-planned trades The importance of taking profits on key moves Reading VX Algo signals for better trade timing ⏰ Timestamps 0:00 — Intro & Day 7 Recap 0:30 — Trading Wins & Mistakes 1:30 — VX Algo Signal Review 2:30 — Market News & Impact 3:30 — Key Levels for Tomorrow 🔔 VX Algo Signals (9:30am – 2pm EST) 8:29 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 10:10 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1DD Buy Signal (double buy) 11:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 11:50 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal 12:10 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal (double sell) 12:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal 📰 News Highlights S&P 500 closes at a new record high. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6410 = Remain Bullish Below 6390 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
3
ES - August 13th - Opening Session Trade PlanToday's CPI was not as complex as I have seen in other releases. While price tried to shake out longs by ripping 40pts at the 8:30am CPI release, sold off and held structure support at 6410 and continued higher and have met 2 out of 3 targets I had planned for the week. I posted the following this morning. "IF, price can hold the 6411-14 area, we should be able to put in a nice bull flag and continue up after the 9:30am NYSE open. IF, price losses the 6410 level, we might need to try and dip below yesterdays low at 6387 and then rally up. We are still targeting the levels above at 6452, 6468, 6480 to hit this week." We hit 6409.75 and took off and hit our 6452 & 6468 targets! What is next for ES with PPI coming out tomorrow and OPEX on Friday. I expect to see more complex trading the next couple of days. ES closed at the highs and are only 12pts from our last target of 6480 this week. ES can continue higher with price putting in structure between 6430-6468. The yellow support levels I have outlined are areas we could see price test, recover, reclaim and move us higher. Ideally, we can set a low overnight that we flush and recover to get us to the 6480, 6493+ targets. IF, price needs to cool off, we would want to see it go no lower than 6430 area with a reclaim of the 6437 support level. That would be a healthy pullback and keep structure moving higher. There is nothing short term bearish until we lose the 6391 level. IF, price does go that low, we should see an initial bounce, but would be a warning sign. The RSI on the 8hr chart is currently at 80, which alone isn't a signal that price will reverse, it is something to keep an eye on. We could get a rug pull tomorrow after the PPI release all the way back down to the 6390 level, IF, we do and ES is selling fast, wait for price to build structure around 6380-85 level and enter once it clears the 6390-92 level. I will post an update and Daily Trade plan by 8am EST based on overnight price action. You can reference my trade plan from today by looking at the related publication section to the right and also see my weekly overview I posted on Monday am. Follow to get my daily trade plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
Are We Replaying the Dot Com Era?I’m completely unbiased here - more so curious - but today’s S&P 500 setup looks eerily similar to the late 1990s. In 1996 and 1997, the index posted back-to-back gains of over 20%, just as 2023 and 2024 have done. Then, in 1998, we saw a sharp 20% pullback - much like the one we’ve had in April of 2025. If you overlay that late-’90s fractal on today’s chart, the trajectory points to an S&P 500 level near 8,200 by early 2027. The bullish case practically writes itself: strong GDP growth, resilient corporate earnings, AI-driven productivity gains, a still-accommodative liquidity backdrop, and investors willing to pay up for growth narratives—just as they did in the dot-com era. The “there is no alternative” (TINA) mentality toward equities was alive then, and it’s alive now. If the trend holds, the next couple of years could deliver staggering upside. That said, it’s purely an observation - not a prediction. A decisive break below the key rising support trendlines would negate this bullish scenario and shift me to a cautious or neutral stance. Until then, the pattern is worth keeping an eye on.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jstrasburger
ES Fails to Break ATH – Possible Reversal Ahead? The S&P 500 futures (ES) made another attempt at the all-time high but failed to push through. This rejection at resistance could signal potential exhaustion from buyers. Key points I’m watching: Strong rejection at ATH zone. Momentum slowing on shorter timeframes. Increased selling pressure in the last few sessions. Potential for a pullback toward recent support levels. If sellers step in with volume, we could see a healthy correction before any new ATH attempt. On the flip side, a strong breakout above this level with sustained buying could invalidate the short bias.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by signal321
2
ES - August 12th - Daily Trade Plan9:15am - Daily Trade Plan I wrote last night that " CPI is tomorrow at 8:30am and my lean is that we hold today's low overnight and continue to move sideways between 6387-6414. Ideally, we can flush down below 6380 and reclaim today's lows of 6387. The levels in yellow and a reclaim of the white trendline are the levels I am watching to trap shorts and move us up higher and out of the range." Price set an overnight low of 6392 and we touched that level 3X overnight and into this am. You can see that price engaged the trendline areas, flushed below and then rallied. At 7:45am we started to build momentum and when CPI came out we rallied to 6440 area and are currently back testing the breakout zone. IF, price can hold the 6411-14 area, we should be able to put in a nice bull flag and continue up after the 9:30am NYSE open. IF, price losses the 6410 level, we might need to try and dip below yesterdays low at 6387 and then rally up. We are still targeting the levels above at 6452, 6468, 6480 to hit this week. Follow me to be notified of my daily trade plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618