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ESU2015 trade ideas

When Liquidity Dried Up — The True Story Behind the Oct 10 Crash█ We Actually Saw It Coming There were clear signs of potential reversals across major markets before the Friday, October 10, 2025 crash. You can see it in the liquidity heatmaps: Gold, Bitcoin, S&P, and other futures all trading above their top 10 liquidity levels. When that happens, it’s usually a warning flag. Price is moving into areas with less visible liquidity, meaning fewer resting orders available to absorb aggressive buyers. That’s when the market becomes fragile and doesn’t take much to trigger a sharp reversal. █ When Price Trades Beyond Visible Liquidity It’s easy to think big moves happen just because of news, but beneath the surface, microstructure signals often show when markets are already vulnerable. One of the clearest is when the mid-price extends beyond the visible liquidity, above the top few ask levels or below the top few bid levels in the order book. Suppose price pushes beyond the visible top levels. In that case, it often means that liquidity was consumed faster than it could replenish, either because aggressive orders cleared it out, or market makers pulled their quotes. That’s when we get what’s called a liquidity vacuum. Research from the Federal Reserve, Bank for International Settlements, and academic studies (Lo & Hall, 2014; Meldrum & Sokolinskiy, 2025) all point to the same thing: When order book depth is shallow, markets become more fragile. Prices overreact, spreads widen, and shocks travel faster. █ What the Heatmap Really Shows Those heatmaps are a visual snapshot of this structure. The green and red bands show the depth of buy and sell orders — the liquidity zones. The blue line is the mid-price — the true current market price. When the blue line (mid-price) moves above the red zone, it means price has traded beyond the top available asks. That can happen because: Buyers lifted all nearby sell orders (aggressive buying), or Sellers pulled liquidity (passive withdrawal). In both cases, the effect is the same, the book thins out, and volatility risk increases. Heatmaps don’t show everything though. They don’t reveal: Hidden or iceberg orders deeper in the book, Off-exchange liquidity or block trades, Or how quickly the book replenishes in real time. But as a visual proxy, they’re incredibly useful for spotting moments when price runs ahead of available liquidity, often right before sharp reversals. █ Why the Crash Hit So Hard So while the crash came from unexpected news, the speed of that drop wasn’t random. Markets were already fragile. Liquidity across assets was thin. When the shock hit, there weren’t enough resting orders to slow it down. Gold, Bitcoin, and S&P futures all had their mid-prices trading above visible liquidity, making them more sensitive to aggressive selling; that’s why the market fell almost simultaneously and so fast. █ How I Handle These Setups Whenever I see price trading above visible liquidity, I start managing risk differently. I might keep existing longs, but I won’t add new ones. Instead, I scale out gradually and watch for potential short setups if other signals confirm it. It’s not about predicting crashes, it’s about recognizing when the market’s structure is fragile. █ Quick Takeaway When the mid-price trades above visible liquidity, the order book is telling you something simple but powerful: “There’s not much support up here.” That’s often when it pays to get defensive, not aggressive. Access the CME Liquidity tool at this link ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Zeiierman
25
ES1!: Trading range and Levels for Oct 6 - 7 Haven't shared day trading levels in a while. Here are the levels for ES1! that I am watching. The labels correspond to the probability of hitting based on the condition of passing one level. For example, ES1! has crossed below 6,784, putting at hit of 6,773 at 85%. If it crosses below that, the next level has an 89% chance of hitting, etc. etc. Not advice, just sharing levels for your reference if you're interested. As always, safe trades!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Steversteves
6
ES - October 9th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 9th- 6:3am EST *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday we held the 7663 range and rallied higher, meeting the first 2 weekly targets at 6807 and 6813. I wrote in my 12:28pm Update - Note the following: IF, you zoom out on the chart to a higher time frame and even down to a 1-hour time frame, you can clearly see that Institutions have been buying any dips below 6750-6765 and we then sold off 2x at the 6802 zone. IF, price can clear this level and hold we should have a new range between 6800 - 6850. I still think we can get one more pull back before we go higher. I am going to take the afternoon off and let price this afternoon decide what it wants to do and will look for new entry's tomorrow. IF, price does lose the 6750-56 level on any pullback, that would be bearish and a warning to the bigger/current market structure. Price really should not lose 6770-74, with 6760-63 being the very lowest, IF, price wants to continue higher. Since the overnight session we have been building a base with the overnight low at 6794 and the high of 6812. We need to keep price above 6788 with a flush and reclaim of 6793-94 being bullish and should take us higher to the 6818, 6822+ targets. IF, price loses 6788, we will most likely need to test 6766-70 and see if we have much liquidity left at this level. Highest quality setups are the following: 1. Flush 6793 and reclaim for a move higher 2. Flush 6788 (maybe down to 6783) and reclaim for a move to back test the 6794 level Key Support Levels - 6793-94, 6788, 6783, 6774, 6763, 6758, 6747, 6741, 6732, 6715, 6705 Key Resistance Levels - 6802, 6807, 6812+ IF, price rallies above 6812 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
3
ES - Weekly Trading Plan - October 5th-11thOctober 5th - 11:30am EST We had a great week, and Institutions continued to buy and keep price moving higher. We reached our weekly targets of 6767, 6792, 6801. (You can read last week's trade plan under the related publications section) Our weekly low was around 6680 on Wednesday and we reached our weekly high of 6801 on Friday afternoon before pulling back into the close. We have continued to find buyers in the 6748-56 range, and we really need to hold the 6750 level, or we will need to pull back further for us to find liquidity to move higher. Ideally, we pull back to the 6720-25 level and then continue higher. IF, we lose the 6705 level, we will most likely need to retest last week's low at 6680-85. Key Support Levels - 6750-54, 6740, 6730, 6719, 6705, 6685 Key Resistance Levels - 6772, 6780, 6800 Weekly Targets - 6807, 6813, 6827, 6840+ Our first level at the overnight session to flush and reclaim would be Friday's low of 6753. This area has been tested multiple times this week and we should get another leg higher before losing this level. IF, price does lose 6753, we would need to look at 6741 to be flushed and reclaimed, 6732, 6720 are 2 other levels below to be looking for flush and reclaims. I will post my Daily Trade Plan by 6am EST Monday, so that we can allow price action to tell us what it is trying to do. IF, you do trade the overnight session, the 6753 reclaim should be bullish and is the first area, I am looking for. (I post a more detailed daily plan, and this allows me to focus on price action daily. The weekly plan is a bigger picture overview, but obviously that can change at any time based on daily price action) - *Follow me so you don't miss my daily updates --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple Levels - Weekly High/Low Green Levels - Weekly Targets Yellow Levels - Daily Key Levels (See Daily Trade Plan) White - Trendlines that may produce support/resistance alongside the horizontal trendlines
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
3
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups Fri (Oct 10)Session Roadmap (London → NY) London (02:00–05:00 ET): Expect balance 6792–6807. A sustained London hold above 6802–6805 increases odds of a pre-NY probe into 6809–6812. A London slip below 6784.5 shifts risk to a VWAP check 6777–6780 and potentially 6766–6761 into NY AM. NY AM (09:30–11:00): Two-way opening likely unless 6812 converts rapidly; watch 9:45–10:05 for the sentiment print impulse. NY PM (13:30–16:00): If morning sets a trend, expect continuation toward RE1/RE2; otherwise back-to-value rotations inside 6780–6795. TIER-1 (A++) — Breakout LONG above PDH/ONH Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6810–6812, then a 5m hold/re-close with HLs. Entry: 6810.75–6812.25 on the first clean retest/hold. Invalidation (hard SL): 6804.75 (below retest & today’s open region). TPs: TP1 6821.75 (RE1), TP2 6834.00, TP3 6841.25. TIER-1 (A++) — Breakdown SHORT through Y-VAL/PDL Trigger: 15m full-body close below 6766.5 and then 6760.75, with a 5m retest 6764–6766 that fails. Entry: 6764.00–6766.00 on the rejection. Invalidation (hard SL): 6772.50 (back above value shelf). TPs: TP1 6748.50, TP2 6736.50, TP3 6729.00. TIER-2 (A+ Bounce) — Quick-reclaim LONG at Value Shelf Trigger: Fast flush into 6777–6780 with a 1m reclaim of 6780.5 and 5m re-close above. Entry: 6778.00–6780.50 after the reclaim. SL: 6771.25. TPs: TP1 6792.75 (Asia H pivot), TP2 6805.50 (today’s open/nearby shelf), runner eye 6810–6812 if momentum. TIER-3 (A Bounce) — Exhaustion-flush LONG at PDL Trigger: Liquidity sweep 6758–6752 that reclaims 6761 on 1m and 5m holds. Entry: 6754–6756 on the reclaim. SL: 6750.75. TPs: TP1 6777.75 (VWAP), TP2 6789–6792 (pivot band). === Price-Path Scenarios (most to least likely) Balance → Break Probe: Early churn inside 6792–6807; successful lift through 6810–6812 post-10:00 unlocks 6821.75 (RE1). Fade to Value: Early rejection at 6809–6812 leads to a drift back into 6784/80 → 6777.75; buyers defend value and keep the range intact. Bear Extension (data-shock needed): Clean 15m close below 6766.5/6760.75 opens 6748.50 with potential follow-through to 6736.50.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES (S&P 500) Futures - Analyses, KeyZones, Setups Tue, (Oct 7)Context We’re sitting just under a shallow ceiling built around 6,785–6,805 after holding a higher-low near 6,766. Trend is still constructive on higher timeframes, but intraday momentum is chopping under that overhead band. Expect two-way trade early with directional follow-through only if one of the edges gives way. Session timing • NY AM window: 9:30–11:00 ET (primary) • Lunch manage-only: 12:00–13:00 ET • NY PM window: 13:30–16:00 ET (primary continuation/reversal window) Catalyst windows (be alert for volatility bursts) • 8:30 ET — morning data drop • ~10:00–11:00 ET — speaker risk window • 13:00 ET — rates/auction impact window Primary setups (Level-KZ style, 15m→5m→1m sequence) 1. Break-and-defend LONG (continuation) Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,785–6,786 (R1). Execute: 5m pullback holds above 6,782 and re-closes up; 1m higher-low entry. Risk: Hard SL beyond the 15m trigger wick (±0.25–0.50). Targets: 6,797–6,805 (R2), then 6,820–6,835 (R3). If R3 converts to support, trail for 6,860–6,875 (R4). Idea: Turn the shelf into a floor and ride the expansion. 2. Quick-reclaim LONG (bounce) at S1/S2 Trigger: Liquidity sweep into 6,775–6,772 or 6,766–6,760, then a 15m close back above the level. Execute: 5m re-close up + 1m pop-and-go. Targets: First magnet 6,782–6,786; stretch 6,797–6,805. Notes: Works best in NY AM; avoid if we grind down into the level slowly. 3. Failure-to-defend SHORT (rotation down) Trigger: 15m body close below 6,775, then 5m lower-high under 6,775 that can’t reclaim. Execute: Sell the 1m pop-and-fail under the re-test. Targets: 6,766–6,760 → 6,742–6,735; leave a runner for 6,724–6,715 if momentum expands. Invalidation: Any 15m reclaim and hold back above 6,782 kills the idea. 4. Pop-and-fail SHORT at R3 (fade the cap) Trigger: First push into 6,820–6,835 stalls (upper wicks on 15m), then a 5m lower-high below the spike. Execute: 1m rejection entry with risk tucked above the wick. Targets: 6,805 → 6,785; runner for 6,766 if breadth flips risk-off. Notes: Don’t overstay; if buyers “walk it up” and print strong closes through 6,835, flip bias to continuation (Setup 1 extension). Price Roadmap for the Day So, here’s how to roll with today’s market. Path A — Range to Upside Break: First up, we want to stay above 6,775 early on. If we can turn 6,785 into dependable support, we're looking to push towards 6,797–6,805. If buyers defend that re-test, we might see a move up to 6,820–6,835. Control shifts to buyers when that range becomes support, and that opens up the possibility of hitting 6,860–6,875 later in the PM session. Path B — Failure from the Ceiling: Now, if we spike into 6,820–6,835 but can’t hold it, then a lower high under 6,805 could take control back to sellers. That sets us up for a drop to 6,785 and maybe even 6,766, with 6,742–6,735 acting like a “magnet pocket” if momentum kicks in. Path C — Data/Auction Shock: Keep an eye out for any sharp moves around 8:30 or 13:00 that blast through key levels. In these scenarios, wait for a 5-minute re-test to see if it holds (which means the trend continues) or fails (pointing to a potential reversal). Don’t chase that initial spike; let the market prove it can stick at the level first. Stay sharp!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Futures Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Wed, Oct 8The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is currently exhibiting a primary uptrend on the higher timeframes while consolidating just below a significant resistance level between 6,785 and 6,795. As we approach the New York morning session, the prevailing expectation is for a range-to-trend expansion, dependent on whether the 6,758–6,795 range is broken. The 6,785–6,795 zone should be regarded as the immediate focal point for decision-making. Event & Risk Calendar (ET) • 07:00–07:15 — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). • 10:30 — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard Wednesday release). • 14:00 — FOMC Minutes (Sept 16–17 meeting). Expect volatility expansion on release. A++ Setups (Tier-1, Level-KZ 15/5/1) 1. Trend-Continuation LONG at R1 break Trigger: 15-minute full-body close above 6,795, 5-minute pullback holds 6,785–6,795, 1-minute higher-low confirms. Entry: 6,788–6,795 on the retest/hold. Invalidation: 15-minute body back below ~6,785. Targets: TP1 6,818–6,825; TP2 6,858–6,866; TP3 6,898–6,905. Risk: Hard SL = relevant 15-minute wick low −0.25–0.50 pts; take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; max 2 attempts per level. 2. Rejection-Fade SHORT at R1 failure Trigger: Probe into 6,785–6,795 fails: 15-minute rejection close back below, 5-minute lower-high forms, 1-minute pullback fails. Entry: 6,785–6,792 on failure. Invalidation: 15-minute body acceptance above ~6,795. Targets: TP1 6,756–6,761; TP2 6,744–6,749; TP3 6,727–6,733. Risk: Same management as Setup 1 (wick-anchored SL; 70/30 at TP1; max 2 attempts).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Thu, Oct 9Market Drivers (ET) • 08:30 — Fed Chair Powell: pre-recorded welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference. risk flag • 08:30 — Initial Jobless Claims: suspended while the federal government remains shut down; will publish only if funding is restored before release time. • 08:35 — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman: opening remarks (same conference). • 09:45 — Treasury Sec. Bessent remarks & fireside chat (conference item; headline risk is modest). • 10:30 — EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage (standard Thursday slot). • 11:30 — Treasury 4- & 8-week bill auctions (regular Thursday bills). • 13:00 — Treasury 30-Year Bond (reopening) auction. • All day: Other conference sessions (payments, community-bank panels; closing remarks late afternoon) may generate minor tape headlines. A++ Setups (NY kill-zones: 09:30–11:00 & 13:30–16:00) 1) Breakout Continuation LONG (Tier-1 A++) — 6,809 unlocks Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,809, then 5m holds a retest 6,803–6,806 and re-closes up. Entry: 1m higher-low on the retest hold. Invalidation: Hard SL just below the 15m trigger-wick (±0.25–0.50 pts). Targets: TP1 6,828–6,832, TP2 6,844–6,848, stretch 6,895± if trend day forms. 2) Rejection SHORT (Tier-1 A++) — Fail at 6,803–6,809 Trigger: Sweep/fail above 6,803–6,809 → 15m closes back inside ≤6,803; 5m forms a lower-high and re-closes down. Entry: 1m LH after the 5m re-close. Invalidation: Hard SL a tick beyond the rejection wick. Targets: TP1 6,789, TP2 6,766–6,759, stretch 6,738–6,733. Market Update and Trading Insight Overnight Analysis: As we enter the London session, we should expect a balanced trading range between 6,789 and 6,806. If we can hold above 6,797 as we transition into the European market, this may set the stage for a pre-New York move targeting the 6,803 to 6,809 area. Any shallow pullbacks that maintain the 6,797 to 6,799 support level will likely keep the bullish trend intact. 08:30 ET (Powell Speech - Pre-recorded): The potential for significant market movements at this timing appears modest. Since there is no jobless claims data this week, we anticipate that the typical volatility around 08:30 will be lighter than usual. Should Powell's comments come across as neutral, expect trading activity to focus more on market levels and flows rather than on hard data.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES (SPX, SPY) Weekly Game Plan (Oct 6–10)Big Picture Price is leaning into the 6,788–6,800 ceiling after a steady grind higher. Underneath, you’ve got stacked shelves: 6,778, 6,771/6,760, and 6,754. Lose that 6,754 floor and there’s an air pocket toward the 6,720s → 6,680s demand band. Expect rotations until the market either gets above 6,800 and sticks (trend-up week) or gets swatted back (rotate lower into value). Weekly Bias & Likely Paths Base case: Rotational around 6,788–6,800 until proven otherwise. Bull path: Get above 6,800 and stick → pit stops 6,818–6,825 (TP1) → 6,856–6,862 (TP2) → stretch 6,895–6,905. Bear path: Pop-and-fail at 6,800 → drift to 6,778 → 6,771/6,760 → 6,754. Trend-down only if we close below 6,754 and fail the check-back, opening the 6,720s → 6,680s window. Tomorrow’s Playbook — Level-KZ Protocol (15/5/1) (NY AM window 09:30–11:00 ET; PM window 13:30–16:00 ET. Two tries per level max.) Pop-and-Go LONG over 6,800 (Tier-1, full size) Trigger: 15m close above 6,800 → 5m holds 6,788–6,792 and re-closes up → 1m higher high to enter. Entry: 6,799–6,804 on the re-break. Stop: Below the 15m trigger wick −0.5. • Targets: TP1 6,818–6,825, TP2 6,856–6,862, TP3 6,895–6,905. Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 take ~70%, set runner to BE, no trail until TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if flat. Pop-and-Fail SHORT at 6,788–6,800 (Tier-1, full size) Trigger: Wick above 6,800 that can’t stick → 15m close back under 6,788, 5m confirms down → 1m lower high to enter. Entry: 6,786–6,792. Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.5. • Targets: TP1 6,778, TP2 6,771.5–6,760.5, TP3 6,754 → 6,742. Note: If TP1 prints in <10m, take ~50%, consider re-adding on a 5m LH. Quick-Reclaim Bounce LONG at 6,758–6,754 (Tier-2, ¾ size) Trigger: Flush into 6,758–6,754 that snaps back → 15m close back over 6,760, 5m holds → 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,758–6,762. Stop: 6,749–6,752 (below the sweep low −0.5). • Targets: TP1 6,778, TP2 6,788, TP3 6,800. Continuation SHORT under 6,754 (Tier-1, full size) Trigger: 15m body under 6,754 plus a failed check-back into 6,754 on 5m. Entry: 6,751–6,754 on the failed retest. Stop: 6,762. • Targets: TP1 6,736–6,728, TP2 6,720–6,700, TP3 6,685–6,680. Price Action Road Map for NY Trading Session Opening Analysis: - We'll begin by monitoring if the price can hold above the 6,788 level. If it does, look for a push toward 6,800. If the price gets rejected at this level, we will shift our strategy to Scenario B. Bearish Scenario: - If the price slips below 6,760, anticipate a potential stop run targeting the 6,758 to 6,754 range. Response Strategies - If we observe a quick snap back from this region, be prepared to target the VWAP area, along with revisiting the 6,788 and 6,800 levels. - Should we fail to reclaim these higher levels, prepare for a move down towards the 6,720s and potentially the 6,680s. Afternoon Strategy: - In the afternoon session, if we establish a clear comfort zone during the morning, consider fading the extremes until we see a definitive 15-minute body break from this zone. Stay focused on these levels and remain adaptable to the market's behavior throughout the session. Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Day 48 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Risk Down, Focus UpRecap & Trades Day 48 — I slept 10 hours to recover from the flu, woke up a bit foggy, and just eased into the day. Took my time reviewing market structure and waited for clean confirmation before taking any trades. The 11:40 VXAlgo DD Sell Signal lined up perfectly with the bearish flip and 10-min MOB zone — I shorted the recovery and let the market do the work. Missed a few bottom orders, but overall execution was clean and controlled. Lesson & Mindset The key lesson today: when you’re on a hot streak, the best move isn’t to press harder — it’s to protect the gains. That’s why I’m reducing my position size for the next few sessions. This isn’t about making more; it’s about keeping what I’ve earned. News & Levels Headline: The IRS plans to furlough 34,000 employees as the U.S. government shutdown continues — something to keep an eye on for market volatility. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6785 bullish, below 6765 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
1
ES - October 8th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 8th- 6:55am EST *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday, I stated the following in my trade plan "IF, price rallies above 6792 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above." What happened when we made a high around 6802 at 9am and price fell back into the range? We sold off and anyone that was not patiently waiting on levels below with a good entry strategy, would not have been profitable. You can review my real-time notes on the 2 trades that I took and can also play back the price action and see that we hit the 6747 green level exactly and have been moving higher since that low yesterday. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Let's get into today! You can look at the 15 min chart and see a nice set of higher highs, higher lows since the low yesterday. What does that mean? We can easily understand that the trend is up and until that most recent lower low is taken out, we should continue higher. We are coming into the overnight high of 6774 and our low of overnight session is at 6758. IF, price can clear 6774, we should back test the 6783 level. Any loss of 6763 is a warning sign that we could head lower and a loss of 6758 would most likely produce a retest of the 6747 low. Highest quality setups are the following: 1. Flush 6758 and reclaim for a move higher 2. Flush of 6747 (down to 6741-43) and reclaim for a move higher 3. Flush of 6741 (down to 6737, 6732) and reclaim for a move higher These are the 3 main levels; I am looking to grab points from. Key Support Levels - 6763, 6758, 6747, 6741, 6732, 6715, 6705 Key Resistance Levels - 6774, 6783, 6792, 6800, 6807+ IF, price rallies above 6774 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
ES - October 6th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 6th- 7:45am EST *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In Friday's trade plan I was looking for the following levels: 1. 6772 test and reclaim the 6777 level to test the overnight highs and levels above. 2. 6758, flush and reclaim to take us back up the levels Around 8:45am we lost 6772, built a nice base and reclaimed the 6772 level and moved higher to 6800, which was our weekly high. 1:14pm - Update This will be my last update of the day before I leave my desk for the weekend. I did want to point out that we have met our main weekly targets and price started selling off at the 6800 level. Price needs to hold 6777 and reclaim 6788 to continue higher. As of writing, Tech is in the red and the VIX is green around 17.83. IF, price does lose 6777, I believe we will need to test the 6756 area as next good spot to get points. IF, price gets much lower, the Failed Breakdown of yesterday's low around 6741 and reclaim of 6745 would be a good spot also. I have no idea what the market will do this afternoon. IF, you have made money today, shut down the computer and do something else. IF, you have made money this week and lost money today, shut down the computer and do something else. DO NOT have FOMO and think you can trade long and short. You might get lucky a few times, but it is a retail traders' nightmare that causes accounts to blow up. As I always say, there are 250 days in a year. You will have good setups next week! IF, you still have a trade left in you, my opinion would be to wait for the 6756 or 6741 area, I have discussed above. What happened in the afternoon? around1:45pm we flushed down to 6753, reclaimed the overnight low at 6758 and got a nice pop to 6780 and then pulled back before the close. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Today's Plan - We have 6783 as our first support with an overnight gap up at 6763 that has still to be filled and the overnight high of 6794. We have a straight-forward plan for today. Ideally, we can pull back and close the 6763 level, reclaim 6768,6772 and move up the levels. IF, price can reclaim 6789, we should retest 6800 and potentially move up to the weekly targets. Highest quality setups are the following: 1. Flush of 6753 and reclaim for a move higher 2. Flush of 6741 and reclaim for a move higher 3. Flush 6763 and reclaim for a move higher These are the 3 main levels; I am looking to grab points from. Key Support Levels - 6772, 6763, 6753, 6747, 6741, 6720, 6705 Key Resistance Levels - 6794, 6800, 6807+ IF, price rallied above 6794 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
3
ES - October 7th - Daily Trading Plan October 7th- 6:45am EST *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am not going to go into detail on yesterday's trade plan and price action as we are in the same area, and the levels are pretty much the same for today. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Today's Plan - We have 6783 as our first support with an overnight high of 6792 and overnight low of 6774. Yesterday, I was able to grab points from the reclaim of the 6772 level. We have a straight-forward plan for today. Ideally, we can pull back and close the 6763 level, reclaim 6768,6772 and move up the levels. IF, price can reclaim 6792, we should retest 6800 and potentially move up to the weekly targets. Highest quality setups are the following: 1. Flush 6774 and reclaim for a move higher 2. Flush 6767 and reclaim for a move higher 3. Flush of 6753 and reclaim for a move higher 4. Flush of 6741 and reclaim for a move higher These are the 3 main levels; I am looking to grab points from. Key Support Levels - 6774, 6767, 6763, 6753, 6747, 6741, 6720, 6705 Key Resistance Levels - 6792, 6800, 6807+ IF, price rallies above 6792 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES - 10/6 & Week 41The highest timeframe is a weekly box in grey A daily red box is last friday's high , low and median range 4hr timeframe levels and trends are in orange 1hr timeframe is yellow and 15min timeframe levels are blue. Strength should favor the higher timeframe. BS and FS levels are support Inv. BS and Inv. FS levels are resistance. It all paints a fractal story through time if you put it all together. This is the science of Technical Analysis - 4 candles create 6 levels that evolve through timeframes which can be navigated with if/ then statements making the the system methodical and data driven.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by StudyGuideTA
Non-Farm Payrolls: Do You Trade the Print or Let It Pass?NOTE – This is a post on Mindset and emotion. It is NOT a Trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. If anything, I’m posting this to help you preserve your capital, energy and will so you can execute your own trading system with calm, patience and confidence. Every first Friday, the market braces for NFP. For some, it’s a chance to catch a big move. For others, it’s a day to protect capital and energy. The real question isn’t just what’s the number? It’s: What’s your process around events like this? Here’s the work to do before Friday: 1. Define your approach Are you trading the release, fading the first spike, or waiting until the dust settles? Write it down before the event - don’t decide in the heat of the moment. 2. Check what’s pulling you in Is it part of your tested edge, or are you driven by FOMO, the rush of adrenaline, or the feeling that you “should” trade it? 3. Notice your body’s signals Faster breathing or shallow breaths Shoulders tightening Heart rate climbing Narrowed focus on the screen Fingers itching to click These are not just “nerves” they are signals. Use them as feedback, not fuel. 4. Review the impact afterwards Did trading the news leave you calm, in control and aligned with your plan? Or did it drain your energy, push you into overtrading, or spark regret? The point isn’t whether NFP is an opportunity or a trap . It can be either. The edge comes from knowing yourself, deciding ahead of time and sticking to a process that matches both your system and your psychology. So before the number drops, get clear: - Do you have a defined playbook? - Or are you letting the market and your body pull you into one? If you’re contemplating trading at any point around the NFP number you might want to check out @JeffBoccaccio’s posts on ES range expectations around the release for some idea on how he frames the news event. Start here but check out the linked video post for a walk-through explanation:
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by soda8888
12
ES - October 10th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 10th- 6:20am EST *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday, we had our first sell off that was lower than most of the local levels we have been seeing the dips bought at. It took price a couple of hours of basing in the afternoon before the 3pm rally. When price sells off like yesterday, it is important to remember that you do not have to rush in at every level. It is also important to make sure you take profits at the next level up. Depending on your strategy, Ideally, you will have a minimum of 2 contracts that you buy, with 1 being sold at the first level and the other being a runner. This way you can catch the move up, while still being profitable. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The overnight high is 6793 and we just made a new overnight low at 6773. Price needs to reclaim 6790-92 to continue higher. IF, price loses 6773, we will need to come back down and retest yesterday's low at 6761. I have mentioned in the weekly trading plan and in my note yesterday at 4pm - "Price found a nice low at 6760 and built a base this afternoon and broke out to back test the overhead resistance at 6783. Any flush and reclaim of 6763 this evening is a good immediate spot. Price will most likely hold 6766-70 level and continue higher. 6750-56 is a key level for price to hold tomorrow. IF, we close below that level tomorrow, we may need to go all the way back down to 6729, 6705 to continue higher. IF, price loses 6756 overnight, I would wait until 6729 area as first good spot, IF, that area cannot clear 6756-58 on any back test, it may need to see 6705." We should get some opportunities today at some quality points. Highest Quality setups are the following: 1. Flush and reclaim of 6773 2. Flush and reclaim of 6761-63 area, with 6767 being the safer spot to enter with price clearing 6774 being bullish. 3. Flush and reclaim of 6753 4. Flush and reclaim of 6741 IF, price gets below 6741, we will need to look at 6729, 6705. Key Support Levels - 6773, 6767, 6761, 6753, 6747, 6741, 6729, 6705 Key Resistance Levels - 6783, 6789, 6793-95, 6802, 6807, 6812 As of writing, we are in a clear downtrend with price on the 15 min chart. Any base that is built above 6773 and the reclaim of 6789 would be bullish in the current range. I still think we need to find liquidity lower by flushing the 6761 level with a reclaim of 6763-65 being a great spot to try for some points. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
1
Market on Fire: S&P 500 & Nasdaq Rally Towards New HighsWe have a beautiful P-Shape volume profile formed at the top and we broke and closed above it. The P-shape volume profile is bullish profile that is formed when large volumes are transacted at the highs meaning participants a willing to pay premium price . You can see the POC so close to the top of the VAH I checked the CVD of the volume on a footprint chart and i see the volume has -ve Delta , which means alot of aggressive sellers transacted there trying to push the price down. Now that they are being squeezed slowly and start closing out their positions, it should fuel the uptrend. i entered the trade soon as we broke and closed above the value area. Food for thought.. Who was willing to pay the high price to buy from the aggressive sellers? DEFINITIONS POC- point of control VAH- Value area high CVD- Cumulative Volume Delta Target is the ExoFade area..Lets see how this trade goes
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by ExoProtocol