Daily SMT Not sure if we're going to deviate higher, or have a PB here based on STDV, will have to let this week print.
ES1! trade ideas
Understanding Moving Averages In TradingToday, we dive into a comprehensive guide on Moving Averages (MAs) — one of the most fundamental yet powerful tools in technical analysis. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, understanding how MAs work can help you better interpret market trends, identify potential entry and exit points, and smooth out price data for clearer decision-making.
In this article, we’ll break down the different types of moving averages, how they’re calculated, when to use them, and common strategies that incorporate them into successful trading plans.
1️⃣ 1. What are Moving Averages?
Moving averages (MAs) are statistical calculations used in technical analysis to smooth out price data and identify trends over a specific period. They help traders filter out short-term fluctuations and focus on the overall direction of an asset's price.
2️⃣ 2. Importance
Moving averages (MAs) play a crucial role in technical analysis by helping traders identify trends, reduce noise, and make informed trading decisions. Here’s why they are important:
Trend Identification: MAs help traders determine the overall direction of the market.
Dynamic Support & Resistance: Traders watch key MAs (e.g., 50-day and 200-day) to anticipate price reactions.
Trading Signals & Crossovers: Detects potential changes in trend direction.
Golden Cross (Bullish): When a short-term MA (e.g., 50-day) crosses above a long-term MA (e.g., 200-day), signaling a potential uptrend.
Death Cross (Bearish): When a short-term MA crosses below a long-term MA, indicating a possible downtrend.
Momentum Confirmation: A steeply rising MA suggests strong bullish momentum, while a declining MA signals bearish strength.
3️⃣ 3. Moving Averages Types
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Calculates the simple average of past prices.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Prioritizes recent prices for faster response.
Weighted Moving Average (WMA): Prioritizes recent prices for faster response.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): Smooths trends while reducing lag effectively.
Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): Averages data with less sensitivity to noise.
Triangular Moving Average (TMA): Applies a double smoothing to price data.
Adaptive Moving Average (AMA): Adapts dynamically to changing market trends.
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA): Adjusts speed based on volatility and noise.
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA): Uses dual EMAs to reduce lag in trends.
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA): Enhances trend detection with triple EMAs.
Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA): Minimizes lag while improving price smoothness.
Variable Moving Average (VMA): Adjusts its value based on market conditions.
Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): Weights price data according to trading volume
Jurik Moving Average (JMA): A highly smooth and responsive MA that reduces lag and noise.
Fractal Adaptive Moving Average (FRAMA): Adapts to market fractal geometry, adjusting speed based on volatility.
Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average (ZLAMA): A variation of EMA that eliminates lag by compensating for past price movements.
4️⃣ 4. Calculations
Moving averages are fundamental tools in technical analysis, helping to smooth price data and highlight trends. However, not all moving averages are created equal—each type is calculated differently, affecting how it responds to market movement.
In this section, we’ll focus on the formulas behind a few of the most relevant and widely used types: the Simple Moving Average (SMA), Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and Weighted Moving Average (WMA).
a. Simple Moving Average (SMA)
The Simple Moving Average (SMA) calculates the average price of an asset over a specified period.
Lag: High (delayed response to price changes)
Best for: Identifying long-term trends and support/resistance
SMA = P1 + P2... + ... + Pn / n
Where:
P1 + P2... + ... + Pn: are the prices (usually closing prices) of the last n periods.
n: is the number of periods on average.
It gives an equal weight to all prices in the period.
ta.sma(close, length)
b. Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) assigns higher weights to more recent prices, reducing lag and increasing responsiveness compared to SMA.
Lag: Lower than SMA but higher than EMA
Best for: Short-term trading strategies
EMA = (Pt × α) + EMAy × (1 − α)
Where:
Pt: Current price (usually the closing price)
EMAy: Previous period’s EMA
α (alpha): Smoothing factor = 2 / (n + 1)
n: Number of periods in the EMA
It gives more weight to recent prices, reducing the lag compared to SMA.
ema = ta.ema(close, length)
c. Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) assigns higher weights to more recent prices, reducing lag and increasing responsiveness compared to SMA.
Lag: Lower than SMA but higher than EMA
Best for: Short-term trading strategies
WMA = (P1 × w1 + P2 × w2 + ... + Pn × wn) / (w1 + w2 + ... + wn)
Where:
P1...Pn: Prices (usually closing) over the last n periods
w1...wn: Weights assigned to each period (most recent gets the highest weight)
n: Number of periods
It reacts faster than SMA but smoother than EMA due to its linear weighting.
wma = ta.wma(close, length)
While there are many variations of moving averages available, the formulas covered here—SMA, EMA, and WMA—represent the most essential and commonly applied in both trading platforms and manual analysis.
Understanding how these are calculated gives deeper insight into their strengths, limitations, and the types of signals they provide.
5️⃣ 5. Choosing the Right MA
Choosing the Right Moving Average for Your Trading Style
Choosing the right moving average (MA) depends on your trading style, time horizon, and goals. Different types of MAs have varying levels of sensitivity to price movements, so the choice should align with your trading strategy.
Here’s how you can choose the best moving average based on your trading approach:
Short-Term Traders (Day Traders, Scalpers)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The EMA reacts faster to price changes, which is crucial for short-term traders who need to enter and exit positions quickly.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): While less sensitive than the EMA, shorter-term SMAs (like the 5 or 10-period) can still be useful for spotting very quick trend changes.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): Offers a good balance between smoothness and responsiveness, reducing lag while staying sensitive to price changes.
Medium-Term Traders (Swing Traders)
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Longer SMAs (like the 50-period or 100-period) are effective in identifying the general trend over a few days or weeks.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The 20-period or 50-period EMA can work well for medium-term traders, providing a smoother trend signal while still responding to changes.
Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA): The SMMA gives a smoother trend and reduces the noise, which is ideal for swing traders who look for stable trends over a couple of weeks.
Long-Term Traders (Position Traders, Investors)
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Longer SMAs like the 100-period or 200-period SMA are perfect for long-term traders and investors. These averages provide a clear indication of the long-term trend and act as reliable support and resistance levels.
Triangular Moving Average (TMA): TMA smooths out price movements even more and is useful for capturing long-term trends. It's slower, but highly effective for those trading in longer time frames.
Trend-Following Traders
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): As trend-following traders rely on capturing long trends, EMAs with longer periods (50, 100, 200) are a solid choice, providing smoother signals with less noise.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): The HMA reduces lag, making it a great choice for trend-following traders who want to react quickly to changes while staying in the trend.
6️⃣ 6. How To Use Moving Averages
Moving averages (MAs) are one of the most widely used tools in technical analysis due to their simplicity and effectiveness in identifying trends, smoothing price data, and signaling potential market reversals. They are used by traders to help spot entry and exit points, determine the direction of the market, and define dynamic support and resistance levels.
Here’s a deeper dive into how moving averages are used in trading:
Identifying Trends
Uptrend: When the price is consistently above the moving average, it indicates a bullish trend. The longer the period of the moving average, the smoother it becomes, showing the overall direction of the market.
Downtrend: Conversely, when the price is consistently below the moving average, it indicates a bearish trend.
Sideways/Consolidation Market: When the price hovers around the moving average without a clear direction, the market is often in a consolidation phase.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support Levels: When the price is above a moving average and then pulls back to touch it, the moving average often acts as a support level. Traders anticipate the price to bounce off the moving average and resume its uptrend.
Resistance Levels: When the price is below a moving average and then rallies back to it, the moving average often acts as a resistance level. This resistance can lead to a reversal or consolidation as the price struggles to break above the MA.
7️⃣ 7. Golden Cross & Death Cross
One of the most well-known signals involving moving averages is the crossover of short-term and long-term moving averages. These crossovers are used to signal potential trend changes and provide traders with entry and exit signals.
Golden Cross: Occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average.
Death Cross: Occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average.
Golden Cross
This is considered a bullish signal, indicating that an uptrend may be starting or strengthening.
When it happens: A common example of a Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. The short-term trend is gaining strength and could signal the beginning of a sustained uptrend.
Why it works: The Golden Cross indicates that recent prices are moving higher and that momentum is accelerating. It suggests that buying pressure is overpowering selling pressure.
Death Cross
This is considered a bearish signal, indicating that a downtrend may be imminent or already in place.
When it happens: A typical example of a Death Cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, signaling that the short-term trend is weakening and a bearish shift may be in play.
Why it works: The Death Cross shows that short-term price movements are declining relative to longer-term trends, and it indicates increasing selling pressure.
8️⃣ 8. MA Strategies
Trend Following
The trend following strategy focuses on identifying and capitalizing on strong price movements in one direction.
Trend Identification: Moving averages are used to identify whether the market is trending up or down. The most common trend-following strategy is to buy when the price is above a key moving average and sell when it’s below.
Trend Confirmation: Once the trend is identified using MAs, traders can enter trades that align with the trend. The idea is to "ride the wave" of the trend as long as possible until there is evidence of a reversal or loss of momentum.
MA Crossover
Moving average crossovers are one of the most popular and widely used strategies in technical analysis. Crossovers occur when a short-term moving average crosses over a longer-term moving average, signaling potential trend changes.
Short-Term Crossovers: These are typically faster and more sensitive, which can help traders spot quicker market changes. Short-term crossovers tend to generate more signals, but they can also lead to more false signals in choppy or sideways markets. (9 EMA & 21 EMA Strategy)
Long-Term Crossovers: These are slower and less frequent but tend to produce more reliable trend signals. Long-term crossovers filter out market noise and provide a clearer view of the overall market direction. (The 50/200-Day Moving Average Strategy)
Mean Reversion
Mean reversion is based on the idea that prices tend to return to their average over time.
How to Identify Overextended Prices
Overbought and Oversold Conditions: When the price is significantly above or below a moving average, it may be overextended. In such cases, traders expect the price to revert to the moving average.
Using MAs as a Benchmark: Traders can use longer-term MAs, like the 50-day or 200-day moving averages, to identify overextended conditions. If the price moves significantly above or below the moving average, it is often seen as an opportunity for mean reversion trades.
Trading Moving Average Pullbacks
Pullbacks: A pullback is when the price moves against the prevailing trend, temporarily retracing toward the moving average before resuming its original trend.
Buying Pullbacks in Uptrends: In an uptrend, traders look to buy when the price pulls back to a moving average like the 50-day or 200-day MA, assuming the trend will continue.
Selling Pullbacks in Downtrends: In a downtrend, traders look for selling opportunities when the price temporarily rallies back to a moving average, anticipating a return to the downtrend.
9️⃣ 9. Key Takeaways
Moving Averages (MAs) smooth price data, helping identify trends, entry, and exit points.
Trend Following Strategies use MAs to align trades with the market’s direction (uptrend, downtrend).
Support & Resistance: MAs act as dynamic levels where prices may reverse or consolidate.
Crossovers:
- Golden Cross (50/200-day crossover) signals a bullish trend.
- Death Cross (50/200-day crossover) signals a bearish trend.
- Short-Term Crossovers (9/21 EMA) provide faster signals for active traders.
Mean Reversion Strategy: Prices often revert to their moving average after being overextended.
Pullback Trading: Enter trades when prices pull back to key MAs during trends.
Combining Indicators:
- RSI confirms MAs’ buy or sell signals.
- MACD crossover strengthens trend direction confirmation.
- Bollinger Bands help assess volatility, confirming price targets and trends.
Timeframe Selection: Short-term traders use quicker MAs (e.g., 9 EMA), while long-term traders prefer slower MAs (e.g., 200-day SMA).
Best MA Settings: For trend-following, use 50/200-day MAs; for short-term, use 9/21 EMAs.
Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
04/28 Weekly GEX AnalysisDETAILED IMAGE:
Here’s what the charts and indicators are showing right now until Friday.
We are approaching a key breakout zone.
🐂 🟢 IF the market breaks above the white bearish daily trendline, the next bullish target could be between 5515–5680.
🟦 ⚖️ The chop area is between 5435–5515.
Expect more back-and-forth moves here if the breakout fails.
🐻🔴 Watch out: if the price drops below 5435 or 5425, there’s little support left.
This could trigger a sharp sell-off ("Bearish Armageddon" scenario).
GEX profiles remain positive 🟢 across all near expirations — for now — suggesting that underlying support still exists, but we need to monitor any changes closely.
IVRank is still relatively high (30.9), meaning options are priced with a decent amount of implied volatility.
🟢Short-term sentiment is currently bullish, with some speculative activity picking up.
This suggests that traders are expecting less volatility over the next month compared to what we saw in the past week.
However, if we look at institutional positions focused on longer-term expirations (especially beyond 30 days on SPX/AM maturities), the picture remains bearish 🔴 or at least highly volatile.
These players are still strongly hedging against downside risks.
This confirms the broader point:
Even though price action managed to recover to pre-tariff-announcement levels — with very low trading volume — we’re not out of the woods yet.
Until we can break and hold above the key resistance bearish trend with HIGH BUY VOLUME (aka. momentum), we shouldn't expect a strong, stable GEX profile across all expirations like we had in the past.
ES Futures: Upcoming Mag 7 Earnings and NFP Report
This week, although there was not much market-moving macro newsflow over the weekend, we are approaching month-end. In addition, several key catalysts are on the horizon, including earnings from the Magnificent 7 and the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which typically arrives on the first Friday of the month.
The Federal Reserve is currently in its blackout period ahead of the interest rate decision scheduled for May 7th, 2025.
As part of our process, we will be reviewing technical levels and drawing a plan based on current market structure. ES futures are currently trading above the March 2025 lows. A “death cross” — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average on the daily timeframe — was recently observed. This pattern is commonly touted by analysts as a bear market indicator.
However, in a macro-driven environment, this could potentially be a false signal.
Key Levels:
• mCVAL: 5622
• Upper Neutral Zone: 5620 -5585
• March 2025 Low: 5533.75
• 2022 CVAH: 5384.75
• Lower Neutral Zone: 5171.75 -5150.75
Our scenarios are as follows:
Scenario 1: Range-bound price action
A P-shaped micro composite profile suggests resistance at our neutral zone. It is labeled neutral because the price is trading above the March 2025 lows. However, if the level above acts as resistance, we expect further range-bound price action. Markets may trade below the mCVAL for further price discovery and potentially establish a new short-term range, with the 2024 lows acting as downside support.
Scenario 2: Mag 7 and NFP as bullish catalysts
Four of the Magnificent 7 companies are reporting earnings this week. The Mag 7 collectively represent around one-third of the S&P 500 index by market capitalization. Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to report on Wednesday after the close, while Amazon and Apple report on Thursday after the close.
On Friday, the NFP data will be released. This could serve as a fundamentally net-positive catalyst for U.S. markets, especially in light of recent shocks that have weakened sentiment.
In this scenario, we will be closely watching our neutral zone and mCVAL as potential areas to initiate long trades.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
Blue Zones: Neutral zones.
C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
VAL: Value Area Low
VAH: Value Area High
VP: Volume Profile
CME_MINI:ES1!
S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing.
This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound.
Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points.
The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650.
Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones.
From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments:
Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection.
Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667).
The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift.
📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short.
Summary:
The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate.
We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone.
COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal.
However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000.
Current Strategy:
Slight bullish bias above 5,500.
Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650.
Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023.
Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450.
Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
May 2nd Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** May 2nd Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis**
EOD accountability report: +821
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
Another great day in the market, Signals worked decent.
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
— 12:50 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :check:
— 1:12 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal :x:
— 3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check:
Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
S&P 500 – iSpark Catches Clean Breakout from 5330 to 5700📢 The iSpark Indicator caught a strong breakout on the S&P 500 Index (4H chart) around the 5330 level , which was followed by a sequence of bullish moves — now reaching the 5700 mark.
🔍 Currently, price is testing the 10 EMA at 5710 , which is acting as a short-term resistance . A clear break and sustained move above 5710 could trigger the next leg higher toward 5750–5775 .
🎯 Holding positions? Stay in with a stop-loss at 5600 to manage risk.
📉 Fundamental caution: As always, keep an eye on macro headlines — unexpected global turmoil or sharp trade commentary (e.g., tariffs) may influence momentum
💡 This entire setup was captured early using the iSpark Indicator , designed to detect high-conviction breakouts across timeframes.
📬 Premium users interested in testing the iSpark Indicator can DM me for a hands-on walkthrough.
#SP500 #ES1! #Breakout #iSpark #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #EMA #TrendFollowing #SPX #TradingView #SNP500
A confident close but...A confident close in the S&P 500 daily chart on Friday was an indicator that buyers are willing to hold positions through the weekend. But the next challenge will be to carry through of this momentum on Monday starting with the Asia session Sunday night 5 o'clock Chicago time. The upside objective for Monday would be 5750.
Why I Hesitate on Long Wick Candles (and How I Trade Through It)In today’s live trading review, I highlight one of the key challenges I face when trading the ES:
I don’t always feel confident executing during long wick days.
So how do I deal with that? Simple: reduce risk and stick to the framework.
Watch as I walk you through this session, break down the setup, and share how you can identify and study your own trading weaknesses — so you can grow stronger, one trade at a time.
#OneCandlestickAtATime #LiveTrading #ESFutures #TradingPsychology
$ES = More downside, the bear flag and $3914 - $4376 targetsIf you look at the chart, you can see that ever since April 7th, we've been consolidating in a bear flag.
I think what's most likely here is that we break down and hit one of the targets below. The reason being, if we look at the chart since the start of the correction, we've seen 4/5 waves so far, so it would make sense that there'd be a final leg down.
Let's see if we end up hitting one of the targets. If we do, it'll mark the bottom of the correction.
April 29, 2025 - Waiting for the Crash or the Miracle?Hello everyone, it’s April 29, 2025. Yesterday’s market session was about as exciting as watching paint dry. After months of Trump-fueled chaos, investors seem almost relieved that… nothing happened. Indices barely moved: TVC:DJI up 0.28%, SP:SPX up a pathetic 0.06%, CME_MINI:NQ1! down 0.10%. In short: we’re falling from a 150-story building, and so far, so good — but we know the real pain comes when we hit the ground.
Markets are clinging to hopes that Trump’s trade war with China might get a Hollywood-style happy ending. He’s calmed down a bit. Stopped slamming Powell, flirted with diplomacy, and softened up on auto tariffs. But with an avalanche of critical economic data coming (Consumer Confidence, GDP, PCE, Jobs) and Magnificent Seven earnings, no one’s taking big bets right now. Everyone’s waiting to see if the economic parachute opens, or if we get pancaked on impact.
Meanwhile, US macro isn’t looking great. Confidence is sinking — 53% of Americans say their finances are worsening, a record since COVID. Consumer spending is stalling, companies like NASDAQ:AAL and NASDAQ:DPZ are canceling forecasts, and the real estate market is coughing. Even hardcore Trump supporters are starting to sweat. The US might still technically be growing, but psychologically, the recession has already started.
OANDA:XAUUSD is holding strong at $3,321, BLACKBULL:WTI is around $61.57, and BINANCE:BTCUSDT is cruising near $94,400. Futures this morning are flailing between -0.6% and +0.2%, dancing to the tune of whatever headline drops next.
On the political front, Trump pulled a classic backpedal on auto tariffs: no double penalties for carmakers, partial refunds on tariffs already paid, and promises of time for US production reshoring. Nice words but rebuilding car factories will take years.
As for NASDAQ:NVDA , it’s under pressure after China banned sales of its H20 chips. Huawei’s Ascend 910D chip is stepping in — good for China, but too slow and too pricey for the rest of the world. Nvidia stays king globally for now, but the tech war is heating up.
Today, eyes are on key numbers: US Consumer Confidence (expected 87.7) and JOLTS job openings (expected 7.49M). Also, a heavy lineup of earnings: NYSE:V , NASDAQ:SBUX , NASDAQ:COKE , NYSE:PFE , NYSE:SNAP , and more.
For now, we’re still in free fall, hoping there’s a giant crash pad waiting at the bottom. Hang tight — it’s going to be another wild one.
Equity market, another monthly technical close! Debriefing.1) Lessons from the monthly technical close for the medium/long term
It's Wednesday April 30, the end of the stock market month with another monthly technical close this evening. April has been a highly volatile month, with a bearish shock at the start of the month on the back of the trade war, followed by a bullish recovery when the time for trade diplomacy between the United States and its main trading partners arrived.
In technical analysis, it's the monthly timeframe that enables us to project the underlying trend, i.e. the market's medium/long-term trend.
We will therefore be taking a decision on the monthly chart, which will be fixed for good at the close of the trading session on Wednesday April 30. Two markets will be studied: the S&P 500 index and APPLE, the world's largest market capitalization.
2) Equity markets: the (long-term) supports of the monthly time horizon are preserved
The S&P500 fell by 21% between its all-time high in February and the low point of the bearish shock at the beginning of April. We now have the technical close for the month of April, represented on the chart below by Japanese candlesticks in monthly data, complemented by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators.
In terms of price action, the essentials have been preserved: the uptrend line which joins all lows since the health crisis has been defended, and still acts as support for the market's underlying uptrend.
In terms of the ichimoku system, the Kijun-sen has also been preserved, as has the former record of 2021, the horizontal support at 4808 points. As long as the S&P 500 remains above the combination of these three supports, the long-term momentum remains bullish.
On the other hand, there are warnings of trend exhaustion in terms of market momentum, represented below by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators. Volatility should therefore remain at a relatively high level, even if the VIX peak is probably behind us.
3) APPLE, the technical message from the stock with the world's largest market capitalization
Technical analysis applied to stock market indices is the first job to be done in order to form an opinion on the underlying trend. But let's not forget that a stock market index only exists because there are stocks in it. The S&P 500 is considered the benchmark index for US finance, and in its calculation, the weight of shares from the “magnificent 7” is dominant. This is particularly true of Apple shares, the world's largest market capitalization on the international equity market. Its market capitalization exceeds 3,000 billion US dollars, second only to that of gold at 22,000 billion US dollars.
It is therefore interesting to note that APPLE's new monthly technical close highlights the preservation of a long-term chartist bullish channel.
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$IZM = China Semiconductor Name. $NVDA $AMD $SMCI $SMH $SOXLNASDAQ:IZM = China Semiconductor Name.
This Thing Can Move Like It Did 1 Year Ago.
With All of The Trouble NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:SMCI NASDAQ:SMH Are Dealing with Tariffs.
This Is A Work Around.
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Bullish Price Delivery on MESIn this week's analysis of the ES futures contract, it still looks reasonable to expect bullish price action.
Given the price delivery over the past few weeks, it appears that large institutions are continuing to push the market higher — a strong signal to maintain a bullish bias!
Key levels I'm watching:
Bullish target: 5,590 (with potential for even higher moves)
Support zones:
First support around 5,497
Stronger support around 5,447 in a worst-case scenario
While it's important to recognize that we may be approaching a "high" within the larger downtrend, from a short-term perspective (this week), I expect these support levels to hold and for bullish momentum to continue.
Of course, as with all speculation, we’ll monitor closely and react accordingly — always studying price action one candlestick at a time!
S&P futures ES1! .. or SPY parallel channels for this weekNot much to explain here...since so many these days can't last through even a half a paragraph....but, the two lines capture a decent amount of stuff and show the most recent action of today with the ping-pong whipsaw.
Does it hit the question mark or stay in the lower parallel...it all depends on how Amazon and Apple can 'Tim cook-their books' and show the world that raging credit defaults and stagnating US with tensions going to hell around the globe doesn't matter.
Would guess from Wed-Thursday that:
Microsoft dips early and then trends sideways before a slight tilt down....
Meta just rips cause I have no idea how they achieve anything except cooking so...
Qualcomm makes up a guidance that show modest 2nd half recovery after "The current tariff uncertainty is stabilized and the need for technology advancement outshines global tensions" or something to that affect.
Amazon and Apple are a repeat of what I said before....Amazon will say they had strong buying heading into the tariffs but they see a slight pull back in consumer willingness to spend. Their cloud-whatever will somehow deliver them through the earnings call with some like 2.37% beat or some crap- but they will probably use 3 words that some algo doesn't want to hear and their stock will initially pop and then retrace the pop and pullback the equivalent move but to the downside. And lastly, Apple....don't care for them and will just say this- "We see strong foreign demand for the iPhone abroad with a high interest from India now that manufacturing will be shifted to that market(minus the fact it is only for the US market...all foreign production will be in China still and the "made in India" will be a quasi fulfillment slight of hand). While we are wading through the uncertainty of China-US relations in regard to tariffs- we see a sustained interest in iPhone sales with an increase in Apple cloud/whatever they call it- services maybe- from foreigners". So.......Apple goes initially down on some like margin metric being a miss or like revenue being like .8% off...but then Cook squeaks a fat steamer on the intercom which allows for the short reversal to the upside, which will kinda die out by next Monday.
Or.....All the above get slammed and the puts go into the weekend happy. Check OptionCharts.io for the open interest for the 30th and may 1st...decent action on the put positions already hitting almost 3/4 million...also just be understanding that Wednesday may be window dressing day for monthly hedge fund/brokerage portfolio allocations...So if there are bad earnings they may dump stock to let their people know they aren't exposed as heavy...but if good earnings you may get a ripping short squeeze from them trying to load up their customers with the big 7...so be careful out there...
Play with the money you have...and not with the money you can't afford to lose....for margins make marginal gains and massive losses when things go wrong- just see the Japanese Pensions unloading treasuries...some benefit...many lose... :)
5 min view:
Addition of one more parallel on the 30 min:
and a 5 min view of the one above on this week's lines:
