Is ES1! Setting Up for Another Leg Up? Layer Entry Plan💼 ES1! | E-Mini S&P 500 Futures | Thief Market Wealth Strategy Map (Swing/Day Trade) 🚀📈
📊 Plan: Bullish Bias
We are mapping the ES1! (E-Mini S&P 500 Futures) with a thief layering strategy for flexible swing/day trading.
Thief Entry Layers (Layering Strategy Method)
Instead of “one-shot” entries, we use multiple buy limit layers to scale into the move.
💰 Example entry levels:
🔹 6720
🔹 6740
🔹 6760
(👉 Add more layers if you wish, that’s the thief flexibility 🔑)
🛡 Stop-Loss (Thief SL)
📉 6680
⚠ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending to strictly follow my SL. Manage your own risk — protect your capital thief-style.
🎯 Target (Profit Escape Zone)
📈 6900 — key resistance area + potential overbought zone = possible bull trap!
💡 Escape with profits thief-style before the market traps late buyers.
⚠ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending to strictly follow my TP. Take your own exit when you steal your bag.
🔑 Key Points & Correlations
🟢 ES1! (S&P 500 futures) often correlates with:
CME_MINI:NQ1! (Nasdaq Futures) 📡 Tech-driven momentum
CBOT_MINI:YM1! (Dow Futures) 🏦 Old-school industrials
CME_MINI:RTY1! (Russell Futures) 📈 Small-cap sentiment gauge
TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) ⚡ Inverse relationship with risk-on moves
Watching these markets helps filter fake pumps and identify real liquidity grabs.
⚡ Thief Trading Philosophy
This is not about exact entries — it’s about layering, adapting, and escaping with profits before the crowd realizes.
Steal pips.
Escape traps.
Repeat.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
⚠ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-Style Trading Strategy Map, created just for fun and market observation. This is NOT financial advice. Trade at your own risk and always manage your capital wisely.
#ES1 #SP500 #SPX #Futures #DayTrading #SwingTrading #IndexTrading #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy #ThiefTrader #ScalpAndRun
Trade ideas
ES - October 20th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 20th - 6:32am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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Our overnight high is 6738 and our overnight low is 6695. I mentioned on Friday that we needed to hold the 6703 level for us to continue higher. We have been chopping around above 6703 since Friday afternoon. You can clearly see that we tested 6695 on Friday afternoon 3x, before clearing that level, gapping up at the open on Sunday evening and then closing that gap and holding the 6695 resistance now turned into support! 6570 was our low overnight Thursday/Friday and I do not think we reach that level today. Let's look and find other areas that could be good areas to grab points today.
Key Levels for Today:
1. Loss of 6718 and reclaim
2. Loss of 6695 and reclaim
3. Loss of 6668 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6642 and reclaim
Price below 6642 and we will need to see a flush and reclaim of 6632 or we will need to wait patiently for the 6591 or 6570 levels.
Key Support Levels - 6718, 6703, 6695, 6683, 6668, 6653, 6642, 6632, 6624, 6607, 6591, 6570
Key Resistance Levels - 6738, 6749, 6767, 6779, 6797, 6815
We have to remain bullish with price above 6695. 6765 is a key resistance and that level needs to clear for us to really continue higher. We could easily chop around between 6750-6695 today and continue to work inside this range. We can't be bearish until we see price lose 6642, with 6624 being the very lowest or we will be going to retest Friday's lows.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
ES - October 17th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 17th - 6:32am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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Yesterday we had some really good levels to grab points for those traders that were patiently waiting for a pullback. 6717 was our first level and we had some great points at this level. You can review the daily trade plan and see the real-time notes of what trades I took.
Let's discuss today's plan!
When I woke up around 4am EST I was not too surprised to see we had sold off overnight. Mainly due to the fact we back tested the massive bear flag resistance, yesterday. I had mentioned yesterday that IF, we lose 6650, we would most likely head lower. I also wrote that price needed to clear 6703 for price to go higher.
Our overnight high is 6668 with our overnight low at 6571. Around 4:20am price held this 6571 level a couple of times, and I was actually able to grab points this morning with the failed breakdown of 6575. 6592 is a previous weekly low and as of writing this price is holding this level at the moment. 6592 will be a key level to hold or we will need to test 6559, 6549 or 6539. We currently have an inside weekly candle that IF, price holds 6540 today, would give us next week's candle close to help determine the direction in the short term as to where price may continue either above 6700 or below. (I will go into more detail on the weekly trade plan that comes out on Sunday).
Since I already got lucky this morning being up while price was building a nice base and reclaimed 6575 and made a very nice trade to end the week. I will not be trading anymore the rest of the day.
Today is OPEX and with this can come volatility. You have to be even more disciplined on days like today.
Key Levels for Today:
1. Any loss and reclaim of 6592
2. Reclaim of 6607 (Potentially wait for a back test of this level, it has been tested 2x this am, so probably will rally and may not provide much of a back test).
3. Loss of the overnight low of 6571 and reclaim for a move higher.
My general lean is that Institutions will sell off price in the first hour down to 6559, 6549 and potentially 6540. Any loss of these levels and reclaim of them to move higher is what you need to be looking for. I do believe, IF, price clears 6607 we will most likely test the 6632-level minimum. IF, price can make it 6642 that is a bonus. IF, we are in a longer-term downtrend, price should not reclaim 6700. Today is ripe for a short squeeze and I would be patient and wait for some good levels to grab points from. IF, price loses 6540, I would wait for a reclaim of that level. IF, price does lose the level and can't reclaim it quickly, I would get out the way and take the rest of the day off.
Key Support Levels - 6592, 6571, 6559, 6549, 6539, 6514, 6495
Key Resistance Levels - 6607, 6624, 6632, 6642, 6652, 6668, 6683, 6703
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis Week-Ahead (Oct 20th - 24th)Market Structure Overview
Price has shown a robust rebound from last week's discount levels, now trading back near the 6,720 area following a swift flush and subsequent V-shaped recovery.
Currently, we remain capped under the supply zone between 6,765 and 6,795, which represents the previous swing-high levels. As long as we trade below this resistance, our primary strategy will be to sell into strength and buy on dips within the established range, rather than pursuing breakouts.
On the hourly chart, key equilibrium is noted around the 6,701 to 6,705 range; this serves as the pivotal point around which price action is currently oscillating.
Setups (Level-KZ style)
Reclaim-and-go long (Tier-1 / Tier-2):
Asia/London: hold above 6,701–6,705 after a shallow dip → in NY AM, take the first 5m re-close + 1m HL toward 6,725–6,735.
Scale/target: TP1 6,725–6,735, runners toward 6,765–6,780 if strength persists. Invalidation: 15m body back below 6,701.
Flush-and-reclaim long (Tier-3 bounce):
• Quick sweep into 6,655–6,665 (or even 6,685–6,690) during London → immediate reclaim → first HL entry.
• Targets: back to 6,701 then 6,725–6,735. Invalidation: 15m close back inside/under the swept zone.
Pop-and-fail short (fade):
• Squeeze into 6,725–6,735 that fails to accept (15m rejection back inside) → take the first 5m LH.
• Targets: 6,701 then 6,685–6,690. Invalidation: 15m body acceptance above 6,735.
Stop-run reversal short:
• Spike into 6,765–6,795 (look for wick/absorption) → 15m rejection → 5m LH entry.
• Targets: 6,735 then 6,701. Invalidation: sustained 15m/30m acceptance above 6,795.
Management:
Anchor hard SL to the relevant 15m wick of the trigger ± a small buffer; require TP1 ≥ 2R to the next major level.
At TP1, trim most and put the runner to BE; max 2 attempts per level per session.
Overnight to Tomorrow NY Forecast
Base Case: Anticipate a range build between 6,685 and 6,735 overnight as the market absorbs the recent rebound. During the NY AM session (09:30–11:00 ET), initial attempts may test the 6,725–6,735 resistance before pulling back towards 6,701, potentially moving within the 6,685–6,690 range. Should buyers maintain support at 6,701 on a 15-minute chart, watch for a late-morning rebound back to the 6,725–6,735 zone, with a potential squeeze toward 6,755–6,780 if we see acceptance above 6,735.
The bias shifts to a bullish trend only with clear acceptance above 6,795, which would indicate multiple strong closes in that area, potentially targeting 6,820 and beyond. On the other hand, a decisive move below 6,655 would trigger a downward extension toward 6,604, 6,564, and 6,520.
Execution windows (ET)
• London: 02:00–05:00 — look for the sweep/reclaim plays.
• NY AM (primary): 09:30–11:00 — best momentum/rotation.
• NY PM: 13:30–16:00 — continuation or mean-revert back into the day’s pivot.
What changes the plan
Acceptance above 6,735 early: favor continuation to 6,765–6,780 rather than fading.
Hard failure at 6,701 with sellers defending on 15m: expect a deeper test into 6,685 → 6,655–6,665.
Elevated macro headlines/data at 08:30/10:00 ET windows can temporarily override levels; let the impulse print, then trade the retest.
gameplan for $ES_F – 10/20**Trade Plan – 10/20: $ES_F #ES_F**
📊 **Setup Overview:**
• $ES_F held above key **support at 6540**, bouncing off the daily trendline and reclaiming short-term strength.
• The broader **ascending wedge** remains intact, with **6806** as major resistance and **6540** acting as the line in the sand for bulls.
• The market is consolidating between **6540–6800**, awaiting a breakout catalyst — likely earnings or macro data.
🐂 **Bullish Scenario:**
• Stay above **6540** and push through **6700 → 6750** for continuation.
• Break and hold above **6806** targets **new highs** into the **6850–6900** zone.
🐻 **Bearish Scenario:**
• Lose **6540** → watch for a quick drop toward **6240 → 6169**.
• Below **6169**, momentum breaks the long-term structure and opens **5822** as the next major demand zone.
⚖️ **Key Levels:**
• Resistance → 6700 / 6750 / 6806
• Support → 6540 / 6240 / 6169
🕓 **What I’m Watching:**
• Daily close above **6700** confirms bullish continuation.
• Breakdown under **6540** confirms the first leg of a potential trend reversal.
• Earnings and Fed speakers could drive volatility — stay nimble near resistance zones.
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💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment if you’re trading $ES_F.
Follow **@optibiz_trades** for more market setups, trade plans, and daily insights!
SANTA RALLY OR BLACK FRIDAY ...... THOUGHTS?This is this weekend's whiteboard projections for the next 6months.
This shows a slight reclaim this week but a continuation of lower highs and lower lows.
Then a drop to the bottom of the narrower channel when China tariffs & rare earth restrictions are reflected in earnings guidance as Mag7 reports Q3 results.
Dead cat bounce into Thanksgiving after the market pullback on guidance.
Then only a Trump tweet can give us a Santa Rally, otherwise the other shoe falls and we get a Black Friday/Monday after Thanksgiving.
Followed by a controlled selloff through Q4/Q1 earnings & poor guidance.
Chart forecasts finding a bottom in April 2026.
Please share your charts/forecasts into April 2026. (I am pretty new to this if you can't tell by my charts)
The Game of RiskWith the futures creeping up after the numbers it's looking more and more like a B wave is completing this morning, with a C wave down next for today and tomorrow. Holding support at 6500 (on futures) would likely get the 4 hour rsi in a divergent low posture. That divergent low could propel the SPX to new highs into next week.
We are at a tipping point that can potentally trigger a bear run
The 55 EMA is widely watched by institutions and swing traders as a medium-term trend gauge.
When price tests this line after a strong run or selloff:
Holding above often leads to trend continuation or strong bounce as seen in the path on my chart.
Losing it convincingly tends to signal a deeper correction or even a trend reversal.
Right now, ES is coiling around the 55EMA, which is the kind of tension point where volatility can explode.
Lower Trend Line = Structural Support
The fact that the EMA test with the lower trend line can adds weight to the downward movement.
When a support trend line and EMA level line up, it becomes a confluence zone meaning breakouts or breakdowns from here are often decisive.
A breakdown of this confluence could open the door to:
A larger corrective Wave A or C leg down.
Possibly a multi-month correction into year end if macro news doesn’t provide support.
Fundamental Catalyst Is Lurking
Tariff or trade-deal headlines can be the kind of fundamental catalyst that aligns perfectly with this technical pressure point.
That alignment is classic in Elliott Wave:
The technicals create the setup.
The news provides the spark.
The breakout or breakdown is fast and aggressive.
⚠️ This is why these zones are dangerous for complacent positioning both bulls and bears can get steamrolled when the move starts.
Two Clear Scenarios
Bullish: candle hold above 55 EMA + trend line then bounce toward upper channel, possibly Wave B or new Wave 3
Bearish: clean daily close below support with 55 EMA dropping below can trigger a multi week(s) correction, potential acceleration downward if no positive news
Bull case → initial target near upper trendline / Fib extension levels.
Bear case → retest of previous swing lows or even 0.618 retrace of the entire rally.
Risk Management Matters Most Here
This is the kind of zone where:
Stops should be clearly defined — not “mental.”
Position size should respect that a big move can be triggered fast.
Targets should be realistic, because reactions off the 55 EMA can be sharp.
“When technicals and fundamentals line up, the market doesn’t tiptoe, it sprints.”
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses - Key Levels, Setups for Thu (Oct 16)Kill-zones: London 02:00–05:00 · NY AM 09:30–11:00 · NY PM 13:30–16:00
The price is currently capped under yesterday’s VAH/PDH level. Bulls need to maintain levels above that zone to trigger the next upward movement. If we drop below, the previous POC/VAL will likely pull prices back in.
Premise
• Government 08:30 releases are unlikely; headline risk is lighter into the open.
• Primary scheduled risk is Fed Gov. Barr around 09:00 ET.
• Expect a cleaner auction: use our Level-KZ 15m→5m→1m sequence and prioritize first touches.
Tier-1 (A++) setups — Level-KZ Protocol
1. Short the cap at R2 (6,748.5–6,766.8)
Trigger: 15m rejection back inside → 5m re-close under → 1m LH pullback entry.
Stop: Above the 15m wick (+0.25–0.50).
Targets: TP1 6,712.5; TP2 6,695.5; TP3 6,651.0.
Management: At TP1 close 70%, runner to BE; seek TP2–TP3 during NY AM.
2. Break-and-hold long above PDH 6,766.8
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,766.8 → 5m pullback holds → 1m HL entry.
Stop: Below trigger wick (−0.25–0.50).
Targets: TP1 6,790–6,805; TP2 6,828–6,832; TP3 6,872–6,893.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside 6,748.5.
Tier-2 / Tier-3 bounce plays (sized ¾ and ½)
Quick-reclaim bounce at S2/S3 (6,695–6,683): Fast sweep → instant reclaim on 5m → 1m HL entry.
Targets: TP1 6,712.5; TP2 6,741.0; TP3 6,766.8.
Hard stop: 15m wick through S3 (≤0.50). Gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R.
Watch out for 3 drives patternWith the last two retracements to the 0.618 and a perfect touch of the 0.272, we currently have an ideal setup for a potential three drives pattern.
If it hits the final 0.272, it will coincide with CME_MINI:ES1! reaching new all-time highs before reversing for a possible 150-point drop.
Let's see how it evolves.
NQ & ES Premarket Comment Friday 17-10-2025Good morning everyone.
Today, we’re operating within a balanced range — an equilibrium state. The daily bias remains neutral.
The potential scenarios for today are as follows:
1. Bullish scenario: Price could extend above yesterday’s high (PDH), as illustrated in the left-hand NQ chart.
2. Bearish scenario: Price could move lower, targeting last Friday’s low — this setup is shown in the right-hand ES chart.
The market structure will become clearer after the cash session opens at 09:30. By observing price action at the open, we’ll gain insight into the market’s true intent.
If the landscape remains unclear and your model does not align with price behavior, stay on the sidelines.
It’s Friday — the final trading day of the week — and price may exhibit unpredictable behavior or reactive moves. The key intraday levels are marked on the charts.
Stay disciplined, focused, and loyal to your model. Don’t let short-term volatility or choppy sessions affect your mindset. Relax, observe the price action, and let the market teach you.
See you later for the final market update of the week.
PF
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups For Fri (Oct 17)MACRO SCHEDULE (ET) — confirmed not impacted by shutdown
• NY AM: No confirmed 8:30 ET U.S. government releases (data blackout continues).
• 16:15 — Fed H.8 (weekly bank data) — after cash close; limited intraday impact.
BIAS:
• Short-term momentum is down; price sits in the lower half of this week’s range.
• Expect a liquidity probe lower in London, then a bounce attempt into NY AM if key demand holds.
SETUPS — Level-KZ Protocol (15m→5m→1m)
Tier-1 (A++) — Continuation SHORT from R1/R2
Trigger: 15m rejection back below 6,663–6,670 ➜ 5m re-close below with LH ➜ 1m first pullback fails.
Entry: 6,658–6,662.
SL: Above 15m trigger wick +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,604 (≥2.0R gate). TP2: 6,564. TP3: 6,520.
Tier-1 (A++) — Acceptance SHORT below S1
Trigger: 15m full-body close < 6,642 ➜ 5m pullback holds below ➜ 1m LH entry.
Entry: 6,638–6,641.
SL: Above 6,646 +0.25–0.50.
Targets: TP1 6,604; TP2 6,564; TP3 6,520. Management as above.
Tier-2 (A+ Bounce) — Quick-Reclaim LONG at S2
Trigger: Fast sweep below 6,604 with immediate 15m reclaim ➜ 5m hold/re-close above ➜ 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,605–6,609.
SL: 6,596–6,598 (15m wick low −0.25–0.50).
TP1: 6,663; TP2: 6,690–6,700. Size ¾.
Tier-3 (A Bounce) — Exhaustion LONG at S3
Trigger: Flush into 6,564 ±3 with capitulation wick and 15m momentum pivot ➜ 5m HL ➜ 1m trigger.
SL: Below 6,556–6,558.
TP1: 6,604; TP2: 6,663. Size ½.
INVALIDATION:
• Invalidate long bias if 15m accepts below 6,564 (two 15m bodies or one decisive close ≥1.5pt).
• Invalidate short bias if 15m accepts above 6,718 and holds.
• Max 2 attempts per level per session; stop trading at −2R net or after +3R net.
NEWS / HEADLINE NOTES
With government data paused, price will be more technically driven. Fed headlines can spark brief moves; prioritize level reactions over narrative.
Earnings/gamma flows may add noise near R1 (6,663–6,670) and R2 (6,710–6,718).
ES - October 15th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 15th - 6:25am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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I am not going to go into much detail about yesterday as I have detailed out the trades that I took, which aligned with my edge. It was a great short squeeze yesterday and it all played out at the optimal timeframe while I was at my desk.
The overnight low is 6683 and our overnight high is 6732. I stated in the 4:52pm note yesterday that " Any reclaim of 6692-94 would be bullish overnight and give us another attempt at the 6720 level to take price higher." - This is what happened and we have grinded into some overhead resistance at 6732 with 6738-42 being a strong resistance.
Since price grinded slowly higher overnight, my lean is we need a pullback to keep things moving higher.
While I do not rely solely on technical bull/bear flags, the white trendlines that are drawn, could be a bearish structure that could reach 6742-44 area, then pullback to the 6642 area. The white trendline moving up, IF, price reaches it, should give us a nice bounce for points, then we would expect price to lose this level and move lower.
(IF, price does pull back and we take out the 6744-48 level and are successful, any back test should be good for price to move higher, this would also make the bear flag invalid)
Levels I am looking to grab some points at today:
1. Any loss and reclaim of 6705
2. Loss of 6683 and reclaim (maybe getting as low as 6666 and then reclaim 6674)
3. Loss of 6660 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6632 and reclaim (could be the bounce of the white trendline)
5. Loss of 6593 and reclaim (Yesterday's low)
Below those levels and we will most likely be in free fall to retest the 6540 level which could be the last area to give us a bounce.
IF, price loses any levels lower than 6540, you will want to be patient and let price build a base to take a long on the reclaim of a level above.
Key Support Levels - 6720, 6705, 6683, 6674, 6660, 6642, 6632, 6624, 6593, 6575, 6550, 6540
Key Resistance Levels - 6732, 6744-48, 6758, 6778
IF, price rallies above 6732 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
Condor in the Clouds: When the S&P 500 Takes a Nap1 – The Setup Nobody Expected
The S&P 500 just pulled a classic “I’m tired” move. After that big drop, it stopped running and started hovering between 6,437 and 6,873 — a cozy sideways zone filled with Fibonacci levels, Floor Trader Pivots, and UFOs (yep, UnFilled Orders, not flying saucers).
Markets do that sometimes — they sprint, then nap. And when they nap, option sellers quietly collect theta while everyone else wonders when the action will come back.
2 – The Play: Short Iron Condor
When the market’s stuck in the middle, the Short Iron Condor is like putting walls on both sides of the price. Here’s the idea — you get paid if ES stays in between.
How it’s built:
Sell a Call above resistance
Buy a Call a little higher (that’s your safety net)
Sell a Put below support
Buy a Put a little lower (another safety net)
Boom — now you’ve boxed the market. If it behaves, you earn. If it doesn’t, your risk is capped.
3 – Why It Works Right Now
The Condor thrives when volatility chills out. That’s exactly what ES is doing — taking a breath after chaos.
Theta decay: your invisible ally, eating away at option value day by day.
Range stability: resistance ≈ 6,873, support ≈ 6,437.
Low Vega: volatility tantrums matter less.
You don’t need fireworks — you need patience. This trade doesn’t scream, it hums.
4 – The Fine Print (a.k.a. Risk Management)
Keep it real:
Size positions by max risk, not by excitement level.
Don’t wait for expiration — grab 50–60% profit and fly away.
When the market is calm, the Condor glides. When storms build, fold your wings.
5 – For the Data Nerds
If you love precision:
ES tick = $12.50
MES tick = $1.25
Margins ≈ $21k and $2.1k respectively (subject to volatility).
And yes — theta doesn’t care which one you trade; it just wants time to pass.
6 – The Takeaway
Markets don’t always trend. Sometimes they just drift — and that’s okay.
In those moments, the Short Iron Condor turns boredom into strategy.
So, if the S&P 500 keeps “floating in the clouds,” don’t chase it — collect from it.
Want More Depth?
If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one:
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: ES Condor in the Clouds1 — The Market in a Cloud Layer
The S&P 500 (E-mini and Micro E-mini) futures have recently been caught in a curious atmospheric pattern — not of weather, but of price action. After a strong sell-off shook the market a few days ago, both Fibonacci extensions and retracement zones now cluster densely above and below the current price. When these are joined by multiple Floor Trader Pivot Points and Unfilled Order (UFO) zones sitting in similar regions, a clear message emerges: this market is potentially trapped in a range.
Resistance has been repeatedly observed near 6,873, while the lower boundary around 6,437 continues to attract buyers. The index seems to be trapped between Fibs — a typical post-volatility consolidation phase.
For traders who understand that sideways markets can be just as valuable as trending ones, this environment presents an opportunity. Instead of chasing direction, the goal becomes to capture time decay while staying within defined risk limits.
2 — The Strategy: Short Iron Condor Fundamentals
A Short Iron Condor combines two credit spreads:
A short call spread above current price
A short put spread below current price
Together, they create a “no-fly zone” for the underlying — a region where the trader earns maximum profit if price remains between the inner strikes.
This position benefits from:
Stable or neutral price movement
Time decay (theta)
Declining implied volatility
The Iron Condor offers defined risk and defined reward, making it a powerful candidate for range-bound markets like the current ES setup. While the maximum gain is limited to the net premium collected, the maximum loss is also capped, making this a risk-defined non-directional strategy.
Because this structure has both call and put spreads, it offers low Vega exposure — meaning it’s not overly sensitive to volatility shocks. For intermediate traders, this makes it a comfortable way to step beyond simple single-leg strategies and into the world of multi-leg, theta-driven structures.
3 — The Setup: Building the ES Condor
For this idea, we’re looking at the ES (E-mini S&P 500 Futures) options expiring on November 13.
The structure is built as follows:
Sell 6880 Call @ 34.43
Buy 6890 Call @ 31.69
Buy 6430 Put @ 55.32
Sell 6440 Put @ 57.07
This results in a net credit, generating the potential for a maximum profit of 4.49 points (per spread), while the maximum risk stands at -5.51 points. The reward-to-risk ratio comes to approximately 0.8:1, with a statistical win rate of 52.6% based on the current volatility surface, and the Breakeven points: 6,436 and 6,884.
As long as the ES price remains between these levels by expiration, the structure will achieve profitability. The Iron Condor works best when volatility remains stable or contracts — a condition currently supported by the post-drop equilibrium visible in implied volatility readings across near-term expirations.
4 — Chart Context: Technical Landscape Supporting the Range
The chart of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) reveals a tight compression zone forming between Fibonacci extensions and retracement levels above @ 0.618 (≈6,868) and below @ 0.618 (≈6,437). This overlap with Floor Trader Pivots — specifically R1 at 6,873 and S1 at 6,488 — paints a classic range structure. This setup can be the natural habitat for an Iron Condor.
While directional traders may feel frustrated by sideways movement, option sellers can see this as a period of controlled opportunity — where theta decay compensates for the market’s hesitation.
In other words, as long as ES continues to “hover in the clouds,” the Condor quietly collects premium.
5 — CME Product Specifications and Margins
Understanding the underlying contracts is essential when selecting between E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) and Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) for this options setup.
E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Futures
Tick Size: 0.25 = $12.50 per tick
Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours (Sunday–Friday, CME Globex)
Margin (approx.): $21,000 per contract
Micro E-mini S&P 500 (MES) Futures
Contract Size: 1/10 of ES
Tick Size: 0.25 = $1.25 per tick
Margin (approx.): $2,100 per contract
(Margins may vary slightly depending on volatility and broker policies.)
For smaller accounts or for traders looking to practice scaling and hedging, the MES provides a highly capital-efficient alternative to ES.
When executing the Short Iron Condor, traders may also consider margin offsets if the structure is risk-defined — a benefit when using portfolio margin accounts. However, margin usage will vary by broker and account type.
6 — Risk Management: Keeping the Condor in the Clouds
Every Iron Condor begins with a disciplined approach to risk.
Here’s how it can be managed:
Position Sizing: Determine exposure based on the maximum loss, not the credit received. For instance, risking 1–2% of account equity per structure keeps risk contained even during volatility spikes.
Exit Before Expiration: Avoid gamma risk in the final days. Closing the trade when 50–60% of the maximum profit is achieved can reduce time risk while locking in gains.
Adjustments: If price nears a breakeven zone (6,436 or 6,884), traders can consider rolling the threatened side further away or closing half of the position to reduce delta exposure.
Volatility Awareness: A volatility spike can temporarily pressure the mark-to-market value.
Because the Iron Condor is short Vega, it benefits from a calm or contracting volatility regime.
When markets are calm, this strategy works beautifully; when storms approach, it’s time to bring the Condor to the ground.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
S&P 500 Testing Key Support: What Traders Need to Know About SupThe S&P 500 delivered a fascinating signal on Friday, one that technical traders should be paying close attention to.
The market's behavior at this critical juncture reveals important clues about the ongoing battle between supply and demand forces, and what we might expect in the coming sessions.
Friday's trading bar displayed two critical characteristics: a high-volume signature combined with a strong demand tail. This combination points to an attempt to bounce at a key support level, suggesting that buyers are stepping in aggressively. The entire price action pattern indicates a significant testing process is underway in the S&P 500.
The demand tail itself was substantial—approximately 75 S&P points.
That's a considerable move that demonstrates demand instantly producing an upward result on what was otherwise a down bar. When we see this kind of opposing force emerge during a decline, it creates the expectation of some kind of reaction higher.
Looking at comparable bar patterns as analogs, we can start to form expectations about what comes next. If we treat these formations as mirror analogs, there's a particular sequence worth noting.
Following the previous pattern, the next bar was a non-follow-through to the upside, which developed into a testing bar.
Now, we're expecting an up bar as a mirror image of that earlier pattern. However, volume behavior will be crucial here.
We know that volume needs to fall during this phase, and we're seeing more volume declining than in the previous comparable case. This volume characteristic suggests we should be expecting some kind of retest first before any sustained move higher.
The current structure is considerably more complex than simple pattern recognition might suggest.
We could see several different scenarios unfold:
First, there's the possibility of testing today's lows. If the market proves stronger than expected, we could simply continue the sequence of up bars without further downside testing. So far, demand is coming into the market and we're attempting to improve the technical picture.
The question remains: could we experience another down day? That possibility certainly exists, but the demand characteristics we've observed suggest buyers are becoming more aggressive at these support levels.
As tomorrow's session unfolds, traders should focus on volume patterns and price behavior relative to Friday's low. The interaction between supply and demand at this support level will determine whether we see a simple retest or a more complex consolidation pattern before the next directional move.
The key takeaway for S&P 500 traders is that we're in an active testing phase where demand has shown its hand with significant force. How supply responds to this demand will shape the market's near-term trajectory and provide valuable clues about the strength of this support level.
ES - October 28th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 28th - 8:30am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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Our overnight session high is 6917 (which we are coming into this area as I type this). We still have a massive gap that should be filled at some point this week. We have a lot of earnings, FOMC, Economic Data and Trump in Asia tour. It is also the end of the month with Institutions looking to keep price moving higher and trapping retail investors to fill their liquidity needs.
We are very extended on RSI with all time frames needing a pullback to reset and continue higher. We can sell off all the way down to 6810 and still be in a bullish trend. My lean is that we fill the gap and work our way down to the 6812-17 level and then continue higher. Ideally, we would sell off hard, scare retail investors, lose yesterday's low at 6867, reclaim and squeeze us higher. That could take a couple of days to do that, or we could get a rug pull any time.
Key Levels Today -
1. Loss of 6908 and reclaim
2. Loss of 6901 and reclaim
3. Loss of 6889 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6878 and reclaim
5. Loss of 6867 and reclaim
6. Loss of 6841 and reclaim
Key Support Levels - 6908, 6901, 6889,6878, 6867, 6857, 6841, 6827, 6812
Key Resistance Levels - 6917, 6923, 6930, 6946
We have to view price action as bullish until the trend changes. That would need a loss of 6720, 6690 to become bearish. Until then I anticipate the overnight gap closing, losing the 6812 level and reclaim would be a great spot, but we can easily move up with the loss of the key levels above and reclaims to grab points at.
In summary, IF price clears 6917 and then price can't hold 6906, we could flush lower. You can see the white trendline that has been respected overnight and below 6901, we are looking at 6889 to flush and reclaim. Below there and the loss of 6867 (yesterday's low) would be a great spot for some points.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows






















