Sideways structureThe structure in the S&P 500 daily chart implies a sideways market environment. The market is waiting for an excuse to rally or break.
ES1! trade ideas
April 17th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisApril 17th Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +816.25
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: Testing out new supplement, Sleep has been low, but energy level has been good. (testing out Ocimum tenuiflorum for sleep and adding Ginkgo Biloba W/LM)
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System**
9:29 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
11:05 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Buy Signal
11:47 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
3:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double signal)
**Monday plan--> **watch for rejection of 48M Resistance for breakdown to 1D MOB
S&P 500 E-mini Futures – Bearish Setup Ahead?Price recently tapped into a key resistance zone where an imbalance was filled by a wick, showing signs of potential exhaustion. We could see a liquidity grab above before a significant move down toward the 5,150 level. Watch for a reaction in the highlighted resistance area – this could be the beginning of a bearish reversal. Major support sits lower, where a larger move might find footing.
🔹 Resistance tested
🔹 Imbalance filled
🔹 Bearish reaction anticipated
🔹 Targeting the 5,150 zone
Let me know your thoughts – do you see the same setup?
Still Need Some Correction For S&P500 / ES Before Going UpAttention: Prices are read on the futures chart, so they might be different if you are reading on cash charts. But directions and realtionships, should be very similar.
I believe S&P is in a very volatile correction and it is a bit hard to read.
To me it looks like price completed a green (a) of the grey ((y)) wave with a failed 5th and started the green (b) wave with a very aggressive purple a wave.
I believe we are now finishing the blue a-b-c correction in a c-wave diagonal and I would like to see it go down to 5110 area in the green box, for the c wave to have room to develop into the yellow box in the 5530 area.
If price is heading above the 5630 area, I would start to look for another count, since this would mean the green (a)-(b)-(c) correction should have been a flat, and since the green (a) wave is not counted in three waves, this can't be correct.
Right now I would like price to go down to the 5110 area, then back up to the 5530, and then we start the last green (c) wave of the grey ((y)) correction.
And this green (c) wave has plenty of room. All the way down to 4176 before it invalidates the count.
After all this correction, happy days are starting again, where the 5th wave could be heading for the 6500 to 7000 area.
Absorption dayAfter the S&P break to the downside on the daily chart, the expectation is that on Thursday the market will trade inside the range of Wednesday's action as the market absorbs what happened with fundamental comments on Wednesday. New bearish news could push the market lower but that is not expected for Thursday.
ID: 2025 - 0084.16.2025
Trade #8 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy...
Trade entry at 93 DTE (days to expiration).
The last few weeks have been quite challenging, mostly due to increase volatility (3rd highest expansion in history), as well as widening bid/ask spreads. This trade idea will dovetail with trade id: 006 to balance delta without incurring more slippage due to spreads. This trade will hold to expiration without any adjustments until the final 30 days of trade life.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
SPY Futures April 2025Trump imposes new tariffs on imports from China, investors panic, and the market chops. A good level to look at on SPY Futures for the next couple weeks is 5528.00. I believe a break upwards can give bullish investors some confidence , while a rejection could bring even more downside. If we break upwards, possibly revisiting 5840.00, we're going to have to see if we can break that level and get back to the all time high. If we reject and price falls, the level to look at is 4833.00. A break of that support could mean a lot more downside in the coming months. But we're going to have to be patient allow Trump vs China to unfold.
April 15th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +940
Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: Good
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! - easy money
10:10 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal - easy money
1:02 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! - easy money
1:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple signal) -a bit tuff but still work out
3:30 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double signal) - a bit tuff but still work out
**Wed plan: ** Watch for 48M support or 195M support to tag around 5200-5300s.
Neutral zone marketThe structure in the S&P for the last couple days implies a neutral zone market. This means that both buyers and sellers are present with no one group being dominant. The expectation is for a sideways move until we get fundamental information primarily tariff information that will give the market an excuse to rally or break.
S&P 500 and Bitcoin are bearish. Big dump incoming.We bounced back thanks to Trump's bullish announcements but we're right back up at major resistance and we're moving sideways. With major resistance, you want to see price cut straight through like a laser. You don't want to see price hesitating. A bearish geometric pattern leading up to resistance almost always rejects and retests the lows.
Has the S&P 500 bottomed out?A global stock market crash under pressure from the trade war
Since its all-time high last February, the S&P 500 has lost 20%, dragging all global equity markets into a general sell-off. This downward movement concerns not only the United States, but also the MSCI World index, confirming that a global aversion to risk has taken place. And unlike other periods of tension, this time there were no safe havens, except perhaps gold and certain bond segments. All sectors, even defensive ones, were affected.
The source of this intense pressure on the markets? The trade war waged by the Trump administration against over 70 countries, with China leading the retaliatory tariffs. This highly conflicted geopolitical context has rekindled fears of a global economic slowdown, hence the massive flight to liquidity.
The market is hoping for a PIVOT: but which one?
Faced with this situation, only one thing can reverse the trend: a PIVOT. In other words, a major policy change capable of reversing the current dynamics of the financial markets.
Two types of pivot are possible in the spring of 2025: that of the Federal Reserve (the FED) or that of the Trump administration.
The FED's pivot is a monetary reversal. This would involve the central bank lowering interest rates again and halting the reduction of its balance sheet - in other words, injecting more liquidity into the system. In fact, the FED already slowed the reduction of its balance sheet in April, a sign that it may be getting ready to move. Two key dates to watch: May 7 and June 18, the next monetary policy decisions.
But this pivot will depend on two essential conditions: the evolution of inflation and the unemployment rate. If these two variables warrant emergency support, the Fed could initiate the resumption of the federal funds rate cut.
Trump's pivot: tax and trade diplomacy
The other scenario is the Trump pivot. It rests on two pillars: trade diplomacy and fiscal policy. On the trade side, it would involve a return to the negotiating table, with the signing of agreements that would put an end to the spiral of customs sanctions. On the tax side, Trump continues to deploy a very marked pro-business strategy.
Already, his first term (2017-2021) had been marked by a massive reduction in corporate taxes (from 35% to 21%) and tax cuts for households via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. For this second term, starting in January 2025, Trump proposes to go even further with his “One Big Beautiful Bill” project: perpetuate the 2017 cuts, abolish taxes on tips, overtime, even pensions.
Above all, Trump is considering a 15% corporate tax cut, especially for industries that produce in the United States. This would be a major fiscal shock, which could boost growth expectations and thus... the equity markets.
Spring 2025 is a critical time window. The market can no longer afford to navigate uncertainty without a strong signal. Either the Fed will change its tone, or Trump will bend his economic and trade line. A pivot is essential if the S&P 500 is to validate a major market low.
In terms of technical analysis of the financial markets, the S&P 500 index thus corrected by 20% before recovering last week close to the major technical support of 4800 points.
This major chartist support (see the chart of the S&P 500 future contract attached to this analysis) corresponds to the peak of the equity market at the end of 2021 and the starting point of the bear market in 2022, against the backdrop at the time of the Central Banks' commitment to fighting inflation.
This 4800-point level represents the guarantee of the uptrend initiated at the end of 2022. Note that this horizontal support is underpinned by a graphic uptrend line that joins all major market lows since the stock market shock of the health crisis.
Another factor reinforcing the strength of this support is the quantitative aspect, which describes an extreme oversold technical situation conducive to a low point. The percentage of S&P 500 shares above the 50-day moving average has fallen below 10%, a threshold that has seen market stabilizations for over 15 years.
The S&P 500 chart and the quantitative chart are attached to this analysis.
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April 14th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisApril 14th Trade Journal & Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +565
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: recovering, cant seem to get over 6 hour sleep.
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell signal)
9:41 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3
11:02 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
12:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Triple buy signal)
2:11 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell again)
Today traded inside the zone, tested the 10min MA from the other day, held very well and bounced strong.
Bot alerts were on fire today.
Tuesday plan: Look for a backtest to support again on 48 min and push up to the MOB.
ES 3hr UpdateNo idea what this market is doing, it wants the gap fill but can't figure out a way to get there, lol. It did fill the gap up from last night though.
Indicators are neutral, Powell speaks Wed, ECB meeting premarket Thu so I dumped my gold premarket today. Basically a wash trade, I wish I had figured out what was going on sooner. If ECB cuts rates, you'll see the EUro drop, which could cause a drop in gold in US dollars. Also, Euro gapped up last night which scared me, because that gap also needs to fill.
All cash, can't keep up with the news while I'm working. I saw automakers got an exemption though, lol.
We'll see a gap up Thu if ECB cuts rates, so staying cash, not shorting anything. I gotta fly out to WA to get my house ready for sale next week, might just take a break unless I see something.
WIth Trump in office, teh market is bound to go oversold again, might just wait until I sell my house before resuming trading. We'll see.
