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MES1! trade ideas

ES - September 30th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 30th - 6:15am EST *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday, we had a couple of opportunities at key levels to grab some points. You can look back at my notes that I post in real-time to review and see what transpired. Here are a couple of highlights. "First level we are looking to defend will be 6715-6718. Any flush below and reclaim of 6725 should give us another attempt at clearing 6730-32 level. Ideally, we can get a flush down to 6697-6700, reclaim 6705 and then long back up the levels. IF, price loses 6684, we will need to look for flush and reclaims to get us moving back up the levels. I do not anticipate a loss of 6684 today as we close out end of month tomorrow." We never lost 6684, yesterday, with our low being 6697. 8:50am - Update "You can see that at 7:50am we lost the 6725 level down to 6723 and then reclaimed and went higher. I was off my desk and missed this level reclaim, but it was good for a nice pop back to 6731 level." 2:35pm - Update "Price needs to reclaim 6722 to keep us moving higher overnight. IF, price loses 6704 then we will most likely need to test the 6683-6688 level that could push us back up the levels. When I posted the trade plan for today, I wrote "Ideally, we can get a flush down to 6697-6700, reclaim 6705 and then long back up the levels." At 1:32pm EST, we got to 6699, reclaimed 6705 and have rallied higher. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let's get into today's plan! Our overnight session high was 6717 and our low is 6694. I said yesterday that we need to clear 6722 for bulls to continue to push price higher. IF, price loses 6684 that is a warning sign. Guess, what? 6684 area will be a big focus today, IMO. I will be looking for price to flush to 6680-84, reclaim 6688 and head up the levels. We could also flush 6694, hit 6688 and the reclaim of 6694-96 would be a great spot also. The reclaim of 6705-07 should get us a few points to retest 6716-17 at the overnight high. Above that and we should retest the weekly highs at 6736, IF, we can clear 6722 area. 6663, 6653 are the next 2 main levels below that I will be looking for reactions. Key Support Levels - 6653, 6663, 6684, 6697, 6705, 6715, 6725 Key Resistance Levels - 6704-06, 6715-17, 6721, 6728, 6736 Weekly Targets - 6760, 6767, 6776, 6786, 6800+ IF, price loses 6650, then we will most likely flush pretty hard below. Since it is the last day of the month/quarter, I do not anticipate that happening. Stay patient and wait for high quality levels to flush and reclaim. I will post an update around 10am EST. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
10
Day 36 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$1175 LossDay 36 of Trading Only S&P Futures is in the books — and it wasn’t pretty. I started the session well, up about +$100, but got greedy and overleveraged at 6728 thinking Powell’s comments would flip the market bullish. I was wrong. That single forced trade cost me the day, dropping -$1175. To make things worse, I missed the chance to buy the actual bottom near 6702. If I’d stayed patient, today could’ve been a very different outcome. Lesson learned: don’t rush, don’t get over-reliant on gamma levels, and trust my own TA and the algo more. 📰 News Highlights S&P 500, NASDAQ pull back from records as Powell says stocks are overvalued 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6725 = Flip Bullish Below 6700 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:MES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
Day 40 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$2,515 LossDay 40 of Trading Only S&P Futures closes with another red day, down -$2,515. I started the day with losses from an overnight trade but worked back to breakeven after a few solid setups. Then came the turning point — I bet on structure flipping bullish, set multiple buy-the-dip orders with stops just under 6701, and got wicked out two points before the bounce. That single trade set the tone for the rest of the session. On top of that, I was fighting a headache all morning, so instead of tilting, I stepped away, left orders at key levels, and let the market do its thing. This challenge isn’t about perfection — it’s about consistency and learning, even on tough days. 📰 News Highlights US economic data releases to pause in government shutdown, Bureau of Labor Statistics says.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
2
ES (E-mini S&P 500) — Plan for Wed Sep 24Fundamentals (tomorrow, ET) 04:00 Germany IFO Business Climate (often moves European risk tone during London). 10:00 U.S. New Home Sales (Aug) — official Census schedule lists New Residential Sales at 10:00 a.m.. 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard time each Wed). 13:00 U.S. 5-Year Note auction (can nudge yields/indices). Context: Yesterday’s U.S. flash PMIs showed slower but still-expanding activity (Composite 53.6 vs 54.6 Aug). Bias(HTF→LTF) HTF: Uptrend but near prior highs; Tuesday printed a lower-timeframe selloff into ~6,701–6,705 (confluence with D1 1.272 ≈ 6,705). Base case into London: Two-way trade inside 6,701–6,744–6,756 triad while Europe digests IFO. Two paths for NY: Acceptance ↑ above 6,756.5 → squeeze the weak-highs toward 6,765–6,770, then 6,798–6,800 (D1 1.618). Acceptance ↓ below 6,701–6,705 → trend rotation toward 6,690s → 6,680s (next liquidity shelves). London session game plan If Europe pushes up early: Watch 6,744. Failure there → rotate back to 6,711–6,718; clean reclaim → sets NY for a 6,756 test. If Europe bleeds down: Look for sweep & hold behavior at 6,701–6,705; loss of that area on 15m body-through tends to trend extend into the 6,69x/6,68x shelves before NY AM. NY AM (09:30–11:00 ET) and NY PM (13:30–16:00 ET) → full size, run the exact confirmations and targets I gave. A++ Acceptance LONG — above 6,756.5 Confirmations (15/5/1): • 15m full-body close above 6,756.5 (acceptance). • 5m pullback holds ≥ 6,754–6,756 and re-closes up. • 1m HL entry on first clean re-trigger. Entry: 6,756–6,758 on the retest (or continuation >6,760 after 5m re-close). Hard SL: below the 15m trigger wick or < 6,744 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is lower). Targets: TP1 6,765–6,770, TP2 6,798–6,800, TP3 6,901. Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trail before TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level. Invalidation: 15m close back inside < 6,756 after entry that fails the 5m hold → cancel and reassess. ============= A++ Acceptance SHORT — below 6,701–6,705 Confirmations (15/5/1): • 15m full-body close below 6,701 (body-through the band). • 5m LH + re-close down on the retest of 6,701–6,705. • 1m LH entry on first pullback failure. Entry: 6,699–6,703 on the retest. Hard SL: above the 15m trigger wick or > 6,705 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is higher). Targets: TP1 6,690–6,692, TP2 6,680–6,685, TP3 trail if trend accelerates. Management: Same rules as Setup #1 (TP1 70% + runner to BE; 45–60m time-stop; max 2 attempts). Invalidation: Reclaim on 15m back above 6,705 that holds → cancel the short. ⸻ Risk & timing notes • 10:00 New Home Sales and 10:30 EIA can cause abrupt spikes; favor entries after the first post-data 5m bar closes unless already in with cushion. • 13:00 5-Year auction can alter yield curve into the NY PM window; manage runners.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
4
S&P 500: Rally Stalls, but Further Upside LikelyMidweek, the S&P 500 struggled to find the momentum needed to extend its climb within the magenta wave (3). However, our primary outlook still calls for this wave to reach a somewhat higher high. Afterward, wave (4) of the same color is expected to take over, guiding the index into the magenta Target Zone between 6,283 and 5,781 points. In wave (5), another upward phase is anticipated, which should ultimately complete the broader uptrend of the blue wave (III) at an even higher price level.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
1
What is Gamma?🔎 What is Gamma? Gamma Exposure (GEX) measures how much and how fast an option’s Delta changes as the underlying moves. Why does this matter? Because when options shift, market makers must hedge, and their hedging can move markets. Gamma = the “acceleration” of Delta. Large gamma zones = areas where market makers must hedge aggressively. These hedges often create temporary support or resistance levels. Think of Gamma as the invisible hand shaping intraday price action. ⚡ Why is Gamma Important? Market makers aren’t directional traders — they aim to stay delta-neutral. But depending on whether they’re in a positive or negative gamma environment, their hedges can either calm the market or fuel volatility. ✅ Positive Gamma Dealers are net long calls. Price Drop: They buy underlying to hedge → creates support. Price Rise: They sell underlying to hedge → creates resistance. Result: Market stays stable, moves are dampened. ❌ Negative Gamma Dealers are net short puts. Price Drop: They sell underlying to hedge → adds downward pressure. Price Rise: They buy underlying to hedge → adds upward pressure. Result: Market becomes unstable, moves are amplified (higher volatility, risk of squeezes). 📍 Key Gamma Levels to Watch Zero Gamma: Pivot point where hedging flows are balanced. Price often consolidates or pivots here. Major Positive Gamma Zones: Act as resistance (dealers sell into strength). Major Negative Gamma Zones: Act as support (dealers sell into weakness, but may cause bounces).
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by DiYWALLST
1
Day 39 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$2,465 DrawdownDay 39 of Trading Only S&P Futures ends with a tough -$2,465 loss. The morning started strong — I was green on my first three trades with bullish signals at the open. But by 10am, unexpected news about a government shutdown and rate cut doubts shook the market. I got shaken out, lost my morning gains, and ended the day deep in the red. In hindsight, if I had trusted my analysis, kept my MOB buy-the-dip orders, and stayed patient, I would’ve finished green. Instead, I let the news trigger me and broke discipline. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6705 = Flip Bullish Below 6675 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
2
ES - September 26th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 26th - 6:30am EST *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the weekly trade plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! You can review yesterday's plan and the updated notes as I trade during the day. This commentary is intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. We had some key levels that were lost yesterday and until we clear 6684, bears are in control. We are now trading below the white trendline magnet that I have been discussing for over a month. My lean is that we could chop around today between 6674 and 6633 with 6653 being our mid-point. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overnight session high is 6674 and low is 6653. We have the White Trendline Magnet above at around 6675. My lean is we fill out and chop around this 6674-6633 level. Any, loss of 6624 would see 6611 as first area of support. Key Support Levels - 6653,6644, 6633,6624, 6611,6602, 6588,6575, 6541 Key Resistance Levels - 6668, 6674, 6679, 6684, 6688, 6694, 6705 I will be looking for a flush of 6653 and reclaim as first level for some points. IF, we lose 6650, I would wait for the flush and reclaim of 6633 or 6624. 6633 has been used up 2x yesterday, so we could slice through it. 6611 (Weekly Low) would be the next best area for liquidity to long. I will post an update around 10am EST. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
ES Futures (SPX, SPY) Weekly Analyses, Levels: Sep 29 - Oct 3 Weekly Outlook The trend remains bullish on both the weekly and daily charts, with price action re-accumulating beneath a well-defined supply zone around 6750–6760. Friday’s rebound from the low 6600s has established a higher-low structure on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, closing above the mid-range of 6612–6630, which shifts near-term momentum back in favor of the buyers. As we enter a catalyst-heavy week, the path of least resistance suggests a measured push through last week’s “weak high” zone (6750–6760). A decisive move above this supply shelf could target the psychological 6800 mark first, with potential for further upside towards 6865–6885, assuming momentum and market breadth are supportive. Conversely, if we fail to establish acceptance above 6755, the market could revert to a 6700–6760 range, with downside risks extending to 6620 in response to any hot economic data or risk-off sentiment in the headlines. Key catalysts this week (ET) Mon–Thu: Fed speakers scattered; watch for rate-path color and balance-sheet remarks. Tue 10:00: JOLTS (Aug). Wed 8:15: ADP employment (Sep). Wed 10:00: ISM Manufacturing (Sep). Fri 8:30: Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment (Sep). Fri 10:00: ISM Services (Sep). Note: Any fiscal headlines or shutdown noise can skew liquidity and tape reactions around these prints. Tomorrow — NY AM plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) ES Long (A++) — 6750–6760 Acceptance Continuation Bias: Bullish if we get acceptance above the 6750–6760 shelf. Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6755. Then 5m pullback holds ≥6750 and re-closes up; enter on the first 1m HL. Entry: 6752–6756 pullback fill (avoid chasing a wick). Stop: Hard SL below the 15m break-candle low −0.50. Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R. Targets: TP1 6798–6805; TP2 6865–6885; TP3 6900–6915. Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE. Trail only after TP2 or if a 5m lower-high forms against you. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level for the session. Invalidation: 15m body back inside ≤6748 or a failed 5m re-close (acceptance lost). ES Short (A+) — 6750–6760 Rejection Fade Bias: Mean-revert to base if the shelf is swept and rejected. Trigger: Sweep 6750–6760 and 15m closes back below 6748. Then 5m re-close down with a LH; enter on the first 1m LH. Entry: 6744–6748. Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.50 or ≥6762, whichever is tighter. Targets: TP1 6705; TP2 6680; TP3 6620. Management: Take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; consider covering more ahead of 6680 into data windows. Time-stop 45–60m. Max 2 attempts. Invalidation: 15m acceptance back above 6755 or a 5m close making new session highs. Price Projection for the Week Base Scenario: If we see early-week acceptance above 6755, look for targets at 6800, paving the way for a gradual move towards 6865–6885 by Friday. A soft-landing scenario, characterized by cooler labor growth and steady ISM data, could push prices even to the 6900–6915 range. Alternative Scenario: Should we experience a rejection in the 6750–6760 range, expect the ES to remain range-bound between 6700–6760. Hot labor market data or strong ISM figures could drive the price back to 6620, where it’s crucial for buyers to defend this level to maintain the uptrend. Execution Notes: - Focus on trade opportunities only within key kill-zones: primary session is NY AM from 09:30–11:00; optional trading during Asia/London sessions should be done at reduced sizes. - Adhere to daily barriers: halt trading at -2R or after achieving +3R net. - On first touch, prioritize R0/S1 as significant; consider de-risking during second or third interactions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Day 37 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$1,559 Bearish BreakdownDay 37 of Trading Only S&P Futures is wrapped up with a strong green day — finishing +$1,559. The session didn’t start smooth. Running on 4 hours of sleep, I accidentally put in a buy order instead of a sell order at the 1-min MOB level. That mistake cost me some early profits, but once I flipped short, the bearish structure was undeniable. From there, it was all about riding the trend down — stacking shorts as sell signals and structure aligned. A strong reminder that even with mistakes, discipline and following the signals can still turn the day around. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6725 = Flip Bullish Below 6708 = Remain Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups Thus (Sep 30)SESSION DRIVERS • Europe: Germany CPI/HICP prelim came in hotter (2.4% y/y). • Energy: OPEC+ chatter about a possible +500k b/d hike hit crude; watch cross-asset spillover. • U.S. tape: Headlines around government-funding risk; yields eased into week-start. → Net: headline sensitivity + range tendencies early; let NY cash open set the tone. INTRADAY BIAS & SCENARIOS Base case: Range-to-down if 6714–6724 caps on first tests → rotate toward 6696 then 6669. Alternative: Acceptance above 6724 flips momentum up → test 6731–6736 stops; extension possible toward 6750/6763 if buyers hold retests. Threshold: 6696/6694 pivot (ONL/London Low). Below = opens magnets 6686 → 6669. Above and accepted = re-target 6714/6724. LEVEL-KZ PROTOCOL (15/5/1) — SETUPS: Tier-1 (A++) Acceptance Continuation — LONG above 6724 Trigger: 15m full-body close >6724. 5m: Pullback holds 6720–6724 and re-closes up. 1m Entry: HL reclaim. SL: Below 15m trigger wick or 6716 (whichever is lower). • TP1: 6731–6736, TP2: 6750, TP3: 6763. Management: At TP1 close 70%, runner 30% to BE; no trail before TP2. Tier-1 (A++) Rejection Fade — SHORT at 6714–6724 Trigger: 15m rejection that closes back below 6714. 5m: Re-close down with LH. 1m Entry: First pullback lower-high. SL: Above 6728 (or 15m wick high). TP1: 6696–6694, TP2: 6689–6685, TP3: 6672–6666. Notes: Best on first touch during NY AM. Tier-2 (A+) Quick-Reclaim Bounce — LONG at 6672–6666 Trigger: Sweep 6666 → instant reclaim; 15m closes back above 6672. 5m: Re-close up holding the band. 1m Entry: HL. SL: Below 6658. • TP1: 6696, TP2: 6714–6724, TP3: 6731–6736. Size: ¾ normal. Tier-3 (A) Exhaustion Flush — LONG at 6654–6650 or 6639–6636 Trigger: Exhaustion wick + 15m close back inside; 5m re-close up. SL: 6–8 pts below the wick (respect the 15m anchor). • TP1: 6666–6672, TP2: 6696, TP3: 6714. Size: ½ normal. Use only if velocity spike + capitulation tells. RISK & EXECUTION GUARDRAILS • Hard SL on the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts. • Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R. • Max 2 attempts per level per session; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. • Daily guardrails: stop trading at −2R net or lock gains at +3R net. • Lunch 12:00–13:00 manage only; PM window 13:30–16:00 for second pass.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES Futures (SPX) - Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups - Thu, Sep 26News & catalysts (ET) 8:30 — PCE & Core PCE (Aug) , the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Market focus is on Core PCE ~2.9% YoY and ~0.2% MoM consensus. 10:00 — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final Sep) . Scheduled time confirmed by Fed speakers: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman in a 10:00 discussion; Fed Board’s Beth Anne Wilson remarks at 8:45 at a New York Fed conference. Earnings/overnight tone: Costco (COST) reported FY Q4 results Thu after close; headlines can sway retail/consumer sentiment pre-open. Nike (NKE) is due Tue 9/30 after close (next week). Bias: Base case: Two-way trade into 8:30, directional break afterward. If Core PCE ≤ 0.2% MoM or ≤ 2.8% YoY: risk-on; favor upside continuation through near-term supply toward 6700+. If Core PCE ≥ 0.3% MoM or ≥ 3.0% YoY: risk-off; favor sell-the-rips into 6630 → 6605 ladder. Secondary input 10:00: Michigan Sentiment can add a second impulse; weak sentiment keeps rallies fragile. PA roadmap Overnight: Expect balance inside 6655–6675 until 8:30. Liquidity likely pools above 6675 and below 6650 for the data sweep. NY AM (09:30–11:00): Trade the post-8:30 acceptance: continuation if 15m structure accepts beyond a zone; fade if we get swift rejection back inside. NY PM (13:30–16:00): Look for consolidation breaks toward untested AM extremes; avoid initiating inside mid-range chop. Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) A++ Acceptance Long (major) Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6670–6675, followed by 5m pullback that re-closes above. Entry: 1m HL after the 5m re-close. SL: Below the 15m trigger wick −0.25–0.50 pts. TPs: TP1 6705, TP2 6725, TP3 6760–6765. Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Invalidation: 15m body back inside 6670 (acceptance lost). A++ Acceptance Short (major) Trigger: 15m full-body close below 6655, then 5m pullback that fails and re-closes below. Entry: 1m LH after the 5m re-close. SL: Above the 15m trigger wick +0.25–0.50 pts. TPs: TP1 6631–6635, TP2 6605–6608, TP3 6580–6585. Management: Same as above. Invalidation: 15m body back above 6658.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
ES - Weekly Trading Plan - September 28th - October 3rd September 28th - 10:15am - Weekly Trade Plan We had a great week, and Institutions continue to buy and keep price moving higher. We reached our weekly targets on Monday at 6750-52 then sold off to 6623 on Thursday which was the low of the week. Since Thursday Institutions have been buying and holding the 6653-6663 as the bull/bear line heading into this week. While price can flush lower, we really do not want to see anything lower than 6588 with a quick recovery of 6611 on a weekly basis. Friday October 3rd is the big catalyst this week with the Employment Report at 8:30am Key Support Levels - 6684, 6663, 6653, 6634, 6623, 6611, 6602, 6588 Key Resistance Levels - 6705, 6718, 6730, 6756 Weekly Targets - 6767, 6792, 6801, 6813+ Since we closed at the high of the day on Friday, I will post my Daily Trade Plan on Monday around 6am. That way we can see what price does in the overnight session. I anticipate that we hold the 6663 level with 6684 holding being bullish short term to continue up the levels. We could go parabolic this week into the 6800+ levels. I will be waiting on pullbacks to ride higher this week. One thing to keep in mind is that this week is end of month/quarter and Institutions will be performing their window dressing to show clients how well their quarterly returns are doing. Unless price action changes, you have to follow the trend. Right now, the trend is up! (I post a more detailed daily plan, and this allows me to focus on price action daily. The weekly plan is a bigger picture overview, but obviously that can change at any time based on daily price action) - *Follow me so you don't miss my daily updates --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple Levels - Weekly High/Low Green Levels - Weekly Targets Yellow Levels - Daily Key Levels (See Daily Trade Plan) White - Rising trendlines from august lows
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
7
ES - September 29th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 29th - 5:15am EST *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read Friday's, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We opened last night as expected with continued momentum. The overnight session low was 6697 and as of writing this post, we are coming into the high of the session at 6730-32. I stated in my plan on Friday, that "until we clear 6684, bears are in control". We cleared 6684 around noon on Friday and have not looked back since. We are coming into a strong resistance level at 6730-32 and I do expect us to pull back this morning and will be looking for a quality setup to go long and keep the momentum higher. Key Support Levels - 6684, 6697, 6705, 6715, 6725 Key Resistance Levels - 6730-32, 6737, 6744, 6755 Weekly Targets - 6760, 6767, 6776, 6786, 6800+ First level we are looking to defend will be 6715-6718. Any flush below and reclaim of 6725 should give us another attempt at clearing 6730-32 level. Ideally, we can get a flush down to 6697-6700, reclaim 6705 and then long back up the levels. IF, price loses 6684, we will need to look for flush and reclaims to get us moving back up the levels. I do not anticipate a loss of 6684 today as we close out end of month tomorrow. I will post an update around 10am EST. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jhill1618
1
ES - September 25th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 25th - 6:30am EST Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the weekly trade plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) Yesterday I posted on my 9:15am Note: "One thing to remember is that last week's high was 6731. We could easily open at 9:30am and pop above the 6728 to 6731-33 level and then sell off back inside the range and flush lower. Above 6733 and we should continue to back test 6741-44 level. This is a very tight range, and I would be cautious and not chase price. Only enter based on your edge. I will be following my plan! I really like the flush and reclaim of 6692-96 as our next level to find some liquidity." What happened at the open? We tested 6728 one more time, lost 6721, then kept moving lower. We bounced at the 6705 level, then sliced through down to 6685. At 11:57am, I posted the following - "We should get a short squeeze around this area. Watch for 6684-87 and reclaim of 6694." At 12:12pm we put in a perfect failed breakdown of the 6679 blue level on our chart. You can see on the 1 min chart that price tested the level, bounced, came back down and retested without losing the low, and you can then buy when it cleared 6682. On my 12:30pm - Update I wrote - "Price hit the 6679.25 blue level, back tested it and held. Then rallied. I bought a position at 6681 and sold it at 6691 and have a runner at 6683. I will move it up, IF, price continues to rally. Any pull back we need to hold 6684. That would be a possible entry, IF, you missed this move. I would not chase. Let price build structure from this short squeeze." At 12:57pm we back tested down to 6686 and rallied up to 6700. Yesterday was a great day for me and being patient and waiting for the blue levels to flush and reclaim is a gold mine when we have this level of volatility. I expect these types of moves to continue over the coming months. IF, you want to be successful in trading there are 3 main rules you have to obey. 1. NEVER SHORT ES - You make much more money with the short squeeze we saw yesterday at key levels than trying to pick when Institutions will sell. 2. Wait for the key levels to flush and reclaim and buy once you see structure and that price is not going to sell below that level once tested. 3. Sell at each level above. DO NOT predetermine how many levels price will go. Always, take profits when they are available. A good example of this was when I wrote the following yesterday at 1:12pm - "We back tested down to 6686 and then have rallied up and into some overhead resistances at 6697. I just sold my runner at 6697. Price can still keep going higher, but I wanted to lock in gains for the day, so I can be off my desk this afternoon. I had a great day, and it has been a great week. No reason to be greedy." Why did I sell at 6697? It was a key resistance on my chart. Did price sell off? Yes, it did. IF, I had held I would have lost out on the gains that I locked in. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overnight session high is 6705 and low is 6684. We have the White Trendline Magnet below at around 6670. My lean is we will flush 6684 down to the 6670, 6663, 6661 levels, and put in a nice bounce to back test the 6684 level and potentially higher. 6705 is the key level for bulls to reclaim to keep us moving higher, then 6731. Key Support Levels - 6684, 6679, 6670, 6663, 6661 Key Resistance Levels - 6697, 6705, 6711-15, 6731 My lean is we get a flush down to the white trend line around the NYSE open and retail traders will think we are going to go much lower and then we get a short squeeze. This white trendline has been tested 3x and might have one more good bounce left in it. IF, price cannot close the week above 6685, we could be in for lower prices next week. I will post an update around 10am EST. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
From Mystery to Mastery: Options ExplainedIntroduction: Why Options Feel Complicated Options are perhaps the most misunderstood instruments in trading. To the untrained eye, they seem like an impossible puzzle: strange terminology, an overwhelming options chain filled with numbers, and payoff diagrams that bend in multiple directions. Many traders dismiss them as “too complex,” or worse, confuse them with gambling. But options are not about chance — they are about choice. Each contract offers the trader a way to shape risk, control exposure, and adapt to unique market conditions. While this flexibility comes with greater sophistication, it also unlocks a toolkit that no other instrument can match. The visuals you can see at the top of this publication — an options risk profile with multiple legs and a snapshot of an options chain — illustrate this dual nature. At first glance, the visuals are busy, packed with strikes, expirations, premiums, and curved payoff lines. Yet these are the very tools that make options versatile. They can be combined to express bullish, bearish, neutral, or volatility-driven views with precision. The goal of this article is to take the mystery out of options and highlight why their complexity is worth understanding. Step by step, we’ll explore how they work, how the Greeks shape outcomes, how different strategies can be structured, and why they play such a vital role when layered onto futures trading. What Are Options? At their simplest, options are contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price within a specific time period. That asset may be a stock, a futures contract, or even an index. Two Building Blocks Call Options: Give the right to buy the underlying at the strike price. Traders buy calls when they expect the underlying to rise. Put Options: Give the right to sell the underlying at the strike price. Traders buy puts when they expect the underlying to fall. The Price of an Option: The Premium Option buyers pay a premium, while option sellers collect it. This premium reflects the market’s assessment of risk and probability, and it changes constantly with price, volatility, and time. Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic Value Intrinsic Value: The amount an option would be worth if it were exercised immediately. For example, a call with a strike below the current price has intrinsic value. Extrinsic Value: The “time value” built into the premium — compensation for the uncertainty of where price may go before expiration. Why Options Matter Unlike buying or selling the underlying directly, options allow traders to shape their exposure: define maximum risk, set conditional payoffs, or even profit from time decay and volatility changes. The above options chain screenshot illustrates how layered this world can be. Rows of strikes, bid-ask quotes, open interest, and implied volatility may look daunting at first. But each piece of data contributes to building strategies that fit specific objectives. The Greeks Made Simple If the options chain is the menu, then the Greeks are the ingredients that determine how a position behaves. Each Greek measures a different sensitivity, helping traders understand not just what they are trading, but how it will move as conditions change. Delta (Δ) Measures how much an option’s price will change for a one-point move in the underlying asset. A delta of 0.50 means the option should gain about 0.50 units if the underlying rises by 1. Traders often use delta as a proxy for probability of finishing in the money. Gamma (Γ) Tracks how much delta itself will change as the underlying moves. High gamma means delta can shift rapidly, often near at-the-money strikes close to expiration. This makes gamma a key driver of volatility in option prices. Theta (Θ) Represents time decay — the amount an option loses each day, all else equal. Options are wasting assets; as expiration approaches, time value shrinks faster. Option sellers often seek to benefit from theta, while buyers must overcome it. Vega (ν) Measures sensitivity to changes in implied volatility (IV). A higher vega means the option’s value rises more when volatility increases. Since IV often spikes in uncertain times, vega is crucial for traders who position around events. Rho (ρ) Tracks sensitivity to interest rate changes. While less relevant in low-rate environments, rho matters for longer-dated options. Why the Greeks Matter Taken together, the Greeks form a multidimensional risk profile. A trader isn’t just long or short — they are exposed to directional risk (delta), acceleration (gamma), time decay (theta), volatility (vega), and interest rates (rho). The earlier options risk profile diagram illustrates how these forces combine in multi-leg positions. Each curve on the graph reflects the complex interplay of the Greeks, showing why mastering them is essential for managing sophisticated strategies. Core Options Strategies Options can be as simple or as sophisticated as a trader chooses. At their core, all strategies are built from just two instruments — calls and puts — yet when combined, they create a vast range of payoff structures. Directional Strategies Long Calls: Buying a call gives upside exposure with limited downside (the premium paid). Long Puts: Buying a put provides downside exposure with limited risk. These are straightforward but carry the burden of time decay (theta). Income Strategies Covered Calls: Holding the underlying asset while selling a call against it. This generates premium income but caps upside. Cash-Secured Puts: Selling a put while holding cash collateral. If assigned, the trader buys the underlying at the strike price. Risk-Defined Spreads Vertical Spreads: Buying one option and selling another at a different strike in the same expiration. This defines both maximum risk and reward. Iron Condors: A combination of spreads that profits if the underlying stays within a range. Risk and reward are defined upfront. The above iron condor risk profile chart shows exactly how this works: profit is maximized in the middle range, while losses are capped outside the wings. Why Structure Matters Each strategy has its strengths and weaknesses, but the true value of options lies in their flexibility. Traders can design positions to fit directional views, volatility expectations, or income objectives — all with defined risk. Options strategies are like tools in a kit: the more you understand their mechanics, the more precisely you can shape your market exposure. Options on Futures Most traders first encounter options through stocks, but options on futures open the door to even broader applications. While the mechanics are similar, there are key distinctions worth noting. Underlying Differences Stock options are tied to shares of a company. Options on futures are tied to futures contracts — which themselves already embed leverage and expiration. This layering adds both flexibility and complexity. A trader is essentially trading an option on a leveraged instrument. Practical Use Cases Hedging Commodity Risk: An airline might use crude oil futures to lock in prices, then overlay options to cap extreme scenarios while reducing hedging costs. Speculating with Defined Risk: A trader bullish on gold can buy a call option on gold futures. The maximum loss is the premium, but the upside tracks leveraged futures moves. Volatility Plays: Futures options often respond strongly to shifts in implied volatility, especially around key reports or geopolitical events. Why They Matter Options on futures give traders the ability to fine-tune exposures. Instead of committing to full futures leverage, a trader can scale in with options, controlling downside while keeping upside potential open. They also broaden the range of strategies available. Futures already expand diversification; adding options introduces an entirely new layer of flexibility. Index Options Among the most widely traded options in the world are those based on equity indexes, such as the S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100. These instruments serve as essential tools for institutions and active traders alike. Why Index Options Are Popular Portfolio Hedging: Instead of hedging each stock individually, investors can use index puts to protect an entire portfolio. Exposure Without Ownership: Index options allow participation in market moves without holding any individual company shares. Liquidity and Depth: Index options often trade with deep volume and open interest, making them attractive for both large and small participants. Volatility and the Options Surface A key feature of index options is their relationship with volatility. The chart below — an implied volatility surface/skew diagram — shows how options with different strikes and maturities carry different implied volatilities. Volatility Skew: Out-of-the-money puts often trade with higher implied volatility, reflecting demand for downside protection. Term Structure: Near-term expirations may reflect event risk (such as earnings or Fed meetings), while longer maturities capture broader market uncertainty. Why It Matters Index options aren’t just directional bets. They are also instruments for trading volatility, sentiment, and risk itself. Institutions rely on them to hedge, while traders use them to capture shifts in implied volatility across strikes and expirations. By understanding how skew and surfaces behave, traders can better interpret market expectations — not just where prices may go, but how uncertain participants feel about the path forward. Risk Management with Options Options provide unmatched flexibility — but that flexibility can tempt traders into overcomplicating positions or underestimating risk. Mastery comes from structuring trades with risk control at the core. Defined vs. Undefined Risk Defined-Risk Trades: Spreads and combinations such as verticals or iron condors cap both upside and downside. Maximum loss is known from the start. Undefined-Risk Trades: Selling naked calls or puts exposes traders to potentially unlimited risk. While these strategies may generate steady premiums, one large adverse move can wipe out months or years of gains. Managing Volatility Exposure Volatility can shift rapidly, especially around earnings reports, central bank decisions, or geopolitical events. A long option position benefits from rising implied volatility but suffers if volatility collapses. A short option position gains from falling volatility but risks severe losses if volatility spikes. Theta Decay and Time Management Time decay (theta) erodes option premiums every day. Buyers must ensure their directional or volatility edge is strong enough to overcome this drag. Sellers must balance the benefit of theta decay against the risk of sharp, unexpected price moves. Position Sizing Still Matters Even defined-risk strategies can compound losses if oversized. Options’ leverage allows traders to control significant exposure with relatively small premiums, making discipline in sizing just as important as with futures. The Core Principle Options don’t eliminate risk — they reshape it. Effective risk management means choosing strategies where the risk profile matches your conviction, market conditions, and tolerance for uncertainty. Common Mistakes New Options Traders Make Options open powerful opportunities, but without structure, beginners often fall into predictable traps. Recognizing these mistakes is the first step to avoiding them. Chasing Cheap Out-of-the-Money Options Many new traders are attracted to options with very low premiums, believing they offer “lottery ticket” potential. While the payoff looks appealing, the probability of expiring worthless is extremely high. Ignoring Implied Volatility Price direction isn’t the only driver of option value. A trader might buy a call, see the underlying rise, yet still lose money because implied volatility dropped. Treating options as simple directional bets ignores one of their most critical dimensions. Overusing Undefined-Risk Positions Naked calls and puts can seem attractive because of the steady income from premium collection. But without defined risk, these trades can expose traders to devastating losses when markets move sharply. Mismanaging Time Decay Theta works against buyers, and new traders often underestimate how fast options lose value near expiration. Buying short-dated options without accounting for theta can erode capital even when the underlying moves in the expected direction. Forgetting the Exercise and Assignment Process Options on futures and equities alike can be exercised or assigned. New traders often overlook the obligations that come with short positions, leading to unexpected futures or stock exposures. Takeaway Every mistake above comes from misunderstanding what options truly are: instruments shaped not only by direction, but also by time, volatility, and structure. Avoiding these pitfalls is what separates those who dabble from those who progress toward mastery. Conclusion: From Complexity to Clarity Options may seem intimidating at first glance. The crowded options chain, the curved payoff diagrams, and the alphabet soup of Greeks can overwhelm even experienced traders. Yet within this complexity lies unmatched versatility. Options allow traders to: Define risk with precision. Express bullish, bearish, or neutral views. Trade volatility and time as independent variables. Hedge portfolios against unexpected events. The charts in this article — from the iron condor risk profile to the volatility skew surface — highlight the breadth of possibilities. They show why options are not a single strategy, but a toolkit that adapts to any market condition. The challenge is not to memorize every strategy, but to understand how the pieces fit together: calls, puts, Greeks, spreads, volatility, and time. Once these elements stop being a mystery, options transform from a confusing maze into a structured path toward mastery. This article completes our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy. We began with Trading Essentials, laying the foundation. We advanced into Futures Explained, exploring leverage and diversification. Now, with Options Explained, we’ve reached the most versatile and sophisticated layer of trading. The journey doesn’t end here. Futures and options will always evolve with markets, offering new challenges and opportunities. But with a structured process, disciplined risk management, and the mindset of continuous learning, traders can move confidently — from mystery to mastery. From Mystery to Mastery trilogy: Options add a powerful layer of flexibility to trading, whether used for directional plays, income strategies, or hedging. Since many actively traded options are written on futures contracts listed on CME Group exchanges, it’s important to note that chart data can sometimes be delayed. For those who wish to analyze these products in real time on TradingView, a CME Group real-time data plan is available: www.tradingview.com . Traders focused on short-term options strategies, where timing and volatility shifts matter most, will find real-time access particularly valuable. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
From Mystery to Mastery: Futures ExplainedIntroduction: The World of Futures Few markets capture the essence of trading like futures. They are instruments that link commodities, currencies, interest rates, and equity indexes into one unified marketplace. For traders, this means access to global opportunities and true diversification in a single product class. At first, futures may appear intimidating: leverage, margin requirements, expiration dates, and contract rolls all add layers of complexity. Yet these same features are what make futures powerful. They allow traders to express views on global markets with efficiency and precision. The main chart above — a table of major futures contracts across asset classes — makes one thing immediately clear: futures aren’t about trading just one market. They’re about trading them all. Whether you want exposure to equities (S&P 500, Nasdaq), commodities (crude oil, gold, corn), currencies (euro, yen, bitcoin), or interest rates (Treasuries, Eurodollars), futures provide a standardized, transparent, and centralized way to do so. This breadth is why professionals rely on futures: they allow traders to balance risk across multiple sectors, hedge portfolios, and capture opportunities wherever they appear. For those looking to go beyond single-market thinking, futures open the door to true diversification. What Are Futures? At their core, futures are standardized agreements to buy or sell an asset at a specified price on a future date. While the concept sounds simple, the structure behind these contracts makes them unique among trading instruments. Key Characteristics Standardization: Each futures contract is standardized in terms of size, tick value, and expiration cycle. This standardization ensures transparency and liquidity. Centralized Trading: Futures are traded on regulated exchanges, which reduces counterparty risk. Clearing houses guarantee that both sides of the trade meet their obligations. Settlement: Some futures are physically settled (e.g., certain commodities), while others are cash-settled (e.g., equity index futures). Standard vs. Micro Futures Not all traders operate with the same account size. Recognizing this, exchanges introduced micro contracts. Standard Contracts: Designed for institutional or larger retail traders, these carry higher notional values and margin requirements. Micro Contracts: Smaller in size — often 1/10th of the standard — they allow traders to participate in the same markets with reduced exposure. This tiered structure means that futures are accessible to traders of all levels. Whether someone wants to hedge a portfolio worth millions or test strategies with smaller risk, futures provide an efficient and scalable solution. Futures are not just speculative instruments — they are risk-transfer mechanisms. Farmers, corporations, and investors all rely on them, which is why they remain at the heart of global finance. The Mechanics of Futures Trading Futures stand apart from other instruments because of how they embed leverage and daily settlement into every trade. These mechanics create both opportunity and responsibility for traders. Leverage Futures require only a fraction of the contract’s value — the margin — to open a position. This allows traders to control large notional values with relatively small capital. For example, a trader might only need a few thousand dollars in margin to manage exposure worth hundreds of thousands. Advantage: Small price movements can translate into significant gains. Risk: The same leverage can magnify losses just as quickly. Margin and Daily Settlement Unlike buying stocks outright, futures accounts are marked-to-market daily. This means: Gains are credited to your account at the end of each session. Losses are debited immediately. If losses exceed available funds, a margin call requires the trader to deposit more capital or close the position. Ticks and Point Values Each futures contract has a minimum price movement called a tick, and each tick has a specific dollar value. Understanding tick value is essential for risk management — it tells you exactly how much you gain or lose with each price move. Liquidity and Execution Because contracts are standardized and exchange-traded, liquidity is often concentrated in a few active expirations (called “front months”). This ensures tight bid-ask spreads, but also means traders must roll positions forward as contracts near expiration. Takeaway The mechanics of futures amplify both efficiency and risk. Traders who respect leverage, understand margining, and monitor tick exposure can harness futures effectively. Those who overlook these mechanics, however, quickly discover how unforgiving futures can be. Market Structure & Term Dynamics One of the most fascinating — and misunderstood — aspects of futures trading is how contracts across different expirations reveal the market’s expectations. Unlike stocks, which represent a single price, futures unfold into a forward curve that tells a story about supply, demand, and sentiment. Contango and Backwardation Contango occurs when longer-dated contracts trade at higher prices than near-term ones. This often reflects storage costs, financing, or expectations of rising prices. Backwardation happens when near-term contracts are more expensive than those further out, usually signaling scarcity or short-term demand pressure. These structures aren’t static — they shift with economic conditions, inventory levels, and seasonal trends. Seasonality Many futures contracts display recurring patterns tied to the calendar. Agricultural futures respond to planting and harvest cycles, while energy markets often reflect seasonal consumption (e.g., heating oil demand in winter). Recognizing these cycles helps traders anticipate periods of heightened volatility. Visualizing Structure and Seasonality The below chart shows both a forward curve and seasonality patterns for a futures contract. Together, they highlight how futures pricing extends beyond the present moment: • The forward curve reflects the market’s consensus outlook. • Seasonality overlays historical tendencies, offering context for recurring patterns. Why It Matters Understanding term structure is vital for anyone holding positions across different expirations or engaging in spread trading. Futures aren’t just about today’s price — they’re about how markets evolve over time. Applications of Futures Futures are not just trading instruments; they are multipurpose tools that serve a wide spectrum of market participants. Their versatility explains why they sit at the center of global finance. Directional Trading Speculators use futures to express bullish or bearish views with efficiency. Leverage allows for significant exposure to price moves, making futures attractive for active traders seeking short-term opportunities. Hedging Portfolios Institutions, corporations, and even individual investors use futures to offset risks in other holdings. An equity investor can hedge downside risk with stock index futures. An airline can hedge rising fuel costs using energy futures. A farmer can lock in prices for crops months before harvest. Hedging is one of the foundational purposes of futures markets: transferring risk from those who wish to avoid it to those willing to accept it. Spread Trading Some traders don’t speculate on outright direction but instead on relationships between contracts. Examples include: Calendar spreads: buying one expiration and selling another to trade the forward curve. Intermarket spreads: trading related products, such as heating oil vs. crude oil, to capture relative value. Diversification The table shown earlier — featuring futures contracts across asset classes — demonstrates another application: diversification. Futures allow traders to move seamlessly between equities, commodities, currencies, and interest rates, building portfolios that respond to multiple market drivers instead of just one. Takeaway Whether for speculation, hedging, spreads, or diversification, futures adapt to the needs of a wide range of traders. Their applications extend well beyond simple directional bets, offering structured ways to manage both risk and opportunity. Risk Management with Futures The power of futures lies in their leverage and efficiency — but that same power can work against traders who fail to respect risk. Effective risk management is not optional; it is the foundation of survival in futures markets. Position Sizing with Leverage Every tick has a dollar value, and with leverage, even small moves can produce large swings in account equity. Proper position sizing ensures that a single move doesn’t exceed acceptable risk tolerance. A common approach is to size positions so that a stop-loss hit represents no more than 1–2% of account capital. Margin Calls and Volatility Exposure Because accounts are marked-to-market daily, losses are settled immediately. If losses exceed available funds, the trader faces a margin call — forcing them to either deposit additional capital or close positions. This mechanism protects the system but punishes overleveraged traders quickly. Diversification as a Risk Tool The futures contracts table highlighted at the top illustrates how diversification itself can be a form of risk management. A trader holding positions across equity, energy, and agricultural futures is likely less vulnerable to a single market shock than someone concentrated in one asset class. Stop-Losses and Technical Reference Points Using support, resistance, or UFO zones to anchor stop-loss levels ensures that exits are based on market structure rather than arbitrary distances. This provides logic to risk management instead of guesswork. The Core Principle Risk in futures is never eliminated — it is managed. By combining proper position sizing, diversification, and disciplined use of stops, traders can survive volatility long enough to let their edge play out. Case Study: Applying Structure in Futures To see how futures amplify both opportunity and risk, let’s walk through a structured trade in the 6E (Euro FX Futures) market. Setup Entry: 1.1468 Stop-Loss: 1.1376 Target: 1.17455 Confirmed by UFO support zone, SMA ribbon trend alignment, and candlestick reaction. Risk and Reward in Price Terms Risk per contract = Entry – Stop = 1.1468 – 1.1376 = 0.0092 (92 pips). Reward per contract = Target – Entry = 1.17455 – 1.1468 = 0.02775 (277.5 pips). Reward-to-Risk Ratio (R:R) = 277.5 ÷ 92 ≈ 3.0 This trade carries roughly a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio, a structure many traders aim for. P&L in Dollar Terms (6E Futures) Each tick in 6E = 0.00005 = $6.25. Risk (0.0092 ÷ 0.00005 = 184 ticks): Dollar risk = 184 × $6.25 = $1,150 per contract. Reward (0.02775 ÷ 0.00005 = 555 ticks): Dollar reward = 555 × $6.25 = $3,468 per contract. Margin and Return on Margin Initial margin for 6E is typically in the range of a few thousand dollars (varies by broker and volatility). Assuming margin is $2,500 per contract, this trade structure would imply a potential loss of $1,150 ≈ 46% of margin or a potential gain of $3,468 ≈ 139% of margin. It’s critical to highlight that return on margin is not the same as return on account balance. A trader may have $50,000 in their account but only post $2,500 margin per contract. While the trade may show a 139% return on margin, the return on the entire account would be far smaller. Takeaway This example shows how futures transform price movements into significant dollar impacts. With leverage, a well-structured trade can deliver powerful gains, but the same leverage means poor risk control can erode capital quickly. Mastery comes from respecting this scale, not chasing it. Practical Considerations Even with a solid framework and strong risk management, futures trading has nuances that shape how trades play out in real life. Trading Sessions and Liquidity Futures trade nearly 24 hours a day, but liquidity isn’t evenly distributed. The most active periods typically align with the opening hours of major financial centers: European session: Currency and interest rate futures see heavier flow. U.S. session: Stock index and commodity futures dominate. Asian session: Liquidity thins, often leading to sharper moves on lighter volume. Knowing when your product is most active helps improve order execution and reduce slippage. Volatility Cycles Markets expand and contract in volatility. Equity index futures often see bursts of activity at the cash open and close, while energy and agricultural contracts may spike around scheduled reports. Adjusting stop distances and position sizes for these cycles is essential. Event-Driven Moves Futures are highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical events. Examples include: Nonfarm payrolls shaking currency and index futures. FOMC decisions moving rates and equity products. Crop reports swinging agricultural markets. OPEC meetings shifting energy futures. For short-term traders, being aware of the calendar is as important as reading a chart. A well-structured trade can still fail if caught on the wrong side of an event-driven move. Rolls and Expirations Because futures expire, traders holding positions beyond front-month liquidity must roll contracts into later expirations. This roll process can impact pricing, particularly when term structure (contango or backwardation) is steep. Bottom Line Practical mastery comes from understanding not just the trade setup, but also the context in which it plays out. Futures reward preparation and punish oversight — especially around sessions, events, and expiration cycles. Conclusion: Futures as a Path to Mastery Futures can seem overwhelming at first glance — with leverage, margining, expiration dates, and shifting forward curves, they feel far more complex than simply buying or selling shares. But behind the layers of complexity lies a simple truth: futures are among the most versatile tools in finance. In this guide, we’ve seen how futures: Provide access to multiple asset classes, enabling true diversification. Embed leverage that magnifies both opportunity and risk. Reveal market expectations through forward curves and seasonality. Support applications ranging from speculation to hedging and spread trading. Demand structured risk management, since dollar impacts are amplified. The case study showed how even one structured trade can transform when executed through futures. Defined entries, stops, and targets remain the same, but leverage changes the scale of both outcomes and responsibilities. Futures trading is not about eliminating uncertainty. It is about engaging with markets in a disciplined way — using diversification, structure, and risk control to transform potential chaos into calculated opportunity. This article is the second step in the From Mystery to Mastery series. Having laid the foundation in Trading Essentials and expanded into futures here, the journey continues next into the world of options, where versatility and complexity reach an even higher level. From Mystery to Mastery trilogy: When analyzing futures markets, keep in mind that some chart data may be delayed. The examples in this article highlight how futures can be applied across asset classes, from equities and currencies to commodities and interest rates — many of which are listed on CME Group exchanges. For traders who require real-time access to these products on TradingView, a dedicated CME Group real-time data plan is available here: www.tradingview.com . This is especially useful for shorter-term futures traders who rely on intraday precision, while longer-term participants may not find the same urgency in upgrading. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
ES - September 23rd - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 23rd - Daily Trade Plan 8:40am Overnight session high is 6754 and low is 6744. We have been building a base to move higher to the 6760, 6764 and potentially 6776 levels. Since we have been basing in a tight range, I would like to see either a rally to the targets, then a failed breakout that produces a level loss of 6745 and pulls back to the 6733, 6725 or 6718 level, flushes and reclaims and then continues higher. Key Support Levels - 6745, 6733, 6725, 6718, 6712, 6696, Key Resistance Levels - 6754, 6756, 6760, 6764, 6776 IF, price does clear the overnight high before losing the low, then trades at the open back inside the range, we need to be patient and wait for a good level reclaim of 6745 or one of the levels lower. I know that price can continue to rally higher, but I would not be chasing. Make sure to take profits at each level above. I could see us get to 6764 and possibly pullback. I will post an update around 10am EST. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Day 38 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$1,935 WinI’m trading one system, one ticker — S&P 500 futures — every single day for a full year. I journal every session to track progress, reflect, and sharpen my execution. If you’re serious about building consistency and treating trading like a business, you’re in the right place. Stick around — at the end, I’ll break down the key levels I’m watching for tomorrow. Let’s go. Recap & Trades Day 38 was different — I woke up late, wasn’t feeling well, and missed the morning’s big drop and recovery. Instead of forcing trades, I stayed patient on the sidelines. By the afternoon, DL and DD signals lined up beautifully. That’s when I stepped in, executed clean trades, and finished the session +$1,935. Proof that sometimes the best edge is waiting until the market gives you alignment.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
Day 35 — Trading Only S&P Futures | SPX Hits RecordDay 35 of Trading Only S&P Futures is complete! Today was one of the smoother days. We opened with a bullish structure signal and a clean backtest near the MOB. From there, the market ripped higher. I didn’t catch the full move but I did nail the initial push, which gave me space to step away for most of the day. Later in the afternoon, I tried shorting with a tight stop and got clipped. Reentered closer to 6755 resistance, and that short worked out well, closing the day +$849.90. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6705 = Remain Bullish Below 6690 = Flip Bearish 📰 News Highlights The S&P 500 just ended at a new record for the 28th time this year.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
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