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Look at about four marketsDecember 16th think there are some markets that look like they're ready for reversal and that includes the oil market and some of the aggressive markets like the gold and the silver might be key ready to correct a little bit and I talk about that and they talked about S&P mini. I'm going to state here that I'm intentionally looking at markets that aren't quite ready to trade necessarily but we're in that part of the market where they may actually end up trading in the direction that we're looking for in other words if I want to trade oil I have an idea that I want to be a buyer when the market on oil is going lower so I wait for the market to go lower and I'll be I will be looking at the market this week as we see what goes on with the market and if I use my analysis I have a chance of spotting that market even though I talked about it a day or two earlier..... It's about using your time to find an opportunity and then having a little bit of patience to look a little bit longer if you need to and then you take the trade as a opposed to constantly looking at the market and wondering about the trade you're going to take and it's you're doing it every day and you don't have a plan. I spent time on Tesla as well.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ScottBogatin
ES - December 23rd - Daily Trade PlanDecember 23rd- Daily Trade Plan - 6:53am **Note - ES Contracts have rolled over on Trading View from December (ESZ2025) to the March (ESH2026) Contract. I have adjusted the levels on my charts and trade plan to reflect changes. *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I was expecting a little bit more volatility than what we have had this week. Since today is the last day before holiday volume kicks off, we need to see some level losses in the first hour of trading or we could just grind higher in 10-15pt ranges rest of the week. Overnight low is 6922 and Overnight high is 6936 with a gap from Sunday's open at 6892. We may only get a back test of 6936 if price does not lose 6922 and reclaim. Key Levels Today - 1. 6922 - Flush and Reclaim 2. 6911 - Flush and Reclaim 3. 6900 - Flush and Reclaim (Potentially close the 6892 gap) 4. 6892 - Flush and Reclaim I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Levels, Setups for Tue (Dec 16th) As we head into Tuesday, ES is showing signs of structural weakness following a significant sell-off, culminating in a late dip into the 6845-6840 demand zone. The prevailing trend appears to be downward as long as prices remain beneath the resistance range of 6863-6874. However, the 6845-6840 support still has the potential to trigger a rebound. Traders should anticipate the most decisive price action around major data releases, followed by a phased, level-to-level approach in trading strategy. EVENTS THAT CAN MOVE ES (ET) 2:00am UK labor data 3:15am-5:00am Eurozone PMI batch + ZEW sentiment window 8:30am US jobs data bundle + Retail Sales + Earnings + Unemployment 9:45am US Flash PMI 10:00am Business Inventories 4:30pm API oil stats (can hit energy tone into the close) Market Outlook: NY Session Forecast In the upcoming New York trading session, we anticipate a period of consolidation likely to include a modest rebound attempt. However, this upside movement is expected to face resistance within the range of 6859 and 6863-6874. Should sellers maintain pressure and keep prices below 6863 as we head into the session, we could see a subsequent pullback towards the 6845-6840 range, followed by a potential drop to 6825. On the bullish side, if the market can decisively reclaim and sustain levels above 6874, we might open the door for a rally towards 6902 and possibly 6923. Conversely, a clear breach below 6840 that lacks immediate recovery signals strengthens the bearish outlook, targeting 6825 initially, with the potential for a further decline to 6800-6790. ES Short (A++) - Sell 6863-6874 - SL 6876.50 - TP1 6845-6840 TP2 6825 TP3 6800-6790 Key zones Support - 6845-6840, 6825, 6800-6790 Resistance - 6851-6859, 6863-6874, 6902, 6923-6936 A++ Setup 1 - Short (ceiling fade) Entry - Sell 6863-6866 after a rejection from 6863-6874 Stop - 6876.50 (above the rejection high) TP1 - 6845-6840 TP2 - 6825 TP3 - 6800-6790 ES Long (A++) - Buy 6825 reclaim - SL 6814.25 - TP1 6863 TP2 6902 TP3 6923 A++ Setup 2 - Long (flush then reclaim) Entry - Buy 6825-6828 only after price reclaims and holds above 6825 Stop - 6814.25 (below the flush low) TP1 - 6863 TP2 - 6902 TP3 - 6923 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES Weekly Outlook: Can the Santa Rally Carry ES Back to All TimeMacro Backdrop and Sentiment Over the Past Month Over the past month, the macro narrative for ES has been defined by a gradual shift from momentum driven optimism to a more cautious and selective risk environment. Coming out of October, equities were supported by easing financial conditions, strong earnings from mega cap technology, and continued enthusiasm around productivity gains tied to AI investment. That optimism pushed ES to fresh all time highs by the end of October. As November progressed, sentiment became more balanced. Market participants began to reassess forward growth expectations, the path of monetary policy, and the sustainability of stretched valuations. Rather than a sharp risk off move, the tape transitioned into a rotational regime where participants became increasingly responsive around well defined value areas. This shift has resulted in slower tempo, overlapping value, and greater sensitivity to technical references rather than headline driven trend continuation. The market has increasingly rewarded patience, context, and execution around key levels as opposed to chasing momentum. What the Market has done • From the all time highs made at the end of October, the market rotated lower toward the 6605 area, which aligned with daily support. Responsive buyers entered aggressively at this level and successfully defended the level. • Following the responsive buying, price auctioned higher toward the 6975 area, which aligned with daily resistance and the 5 November weekly value area high, where sellers responded and capped further upside. • During the past week, the market broke below the first two weeks of December’s range and the composite value area, signaling a short term loss of acceptance at higher prices. • Price then auctioned lower toward the 6780 area, which aligned with the 24 November weekly VPOC, where buyers once again responded and defended the level. • Responsive buying from 6780 drove the price back higher toward the 6885 area, which sits near the 12 December weekly settlement and the two week composite value area low, reinforcing the broader balanced structure. What to expect in the coming week The key reference to frame the coming week is the previous week’s settlement at 6888.50. Bullish scenario • If the market can accept above 6888.50, expect an auction higher toward the 6970 area, which aligns with daily resistance, the 5 November weekly value area high, and the weekly 0.5 standard deviation high. • Sellers are expected to respond in the 6970 area and attempt to rotate price back down • If sellers fail to defend this area, continuation higher toward 7012 becomes likely, which aligns with all time highs and the weekly 1 standard deviation high. Bearish scenario • If the market is unable to accept above 6888.50, expect a move lower toward the 6827 area, which aligns with the previous week’s value area low and the weekly 0.5 standard deviation low. • Buyers are expected to respond at 6827 to bid prices back up through value. • If buyers fail to hold 6827, expect a continuation lower toward the 6780 area, which aligns with the previous week’s low, the 24 November weekly VPOC, and the weekly 1 standard deviation low. Neutral scenario • If the market is unable to extend meaningfully beyond 6970 on the upside or 6827 on the downside, expect the market to remain balanced and rotational. • In this scenario, value is likely to continue shifting modestly higher as the market awaits the next catalyst. Conclusion ES remains in a broader balance regime where responsive trade dominates and initiative activity has struggled to sustain follow through. Until the market can show clear acceptance above resistance or below support, patience and level based execution remain critical. The previous week’s settlement at 6888.50 will act as the primary decision point this week that helps determine whether the market seeks higher prices, deeper balance, or continued two way trade. If seasonal Santa rally dynamics come into play, they may act as the catalyst that allows the market to regain initiative strength and auction back toward all time highs. What is your take on ES? We would love to hear your view on it. Please give us your comments and give this a boost so that more traders in the community can participate. Thank you. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
From Shutdown Relief to AI Anxiety — Two Narratives Driving ESMarket Theme The week began on a strong footing, driven by a bullish Sunday reopen in ES after news broke that the 43-day government shutdown was set to end, following the Senate’s late-night support for a potential agreement on November 9th. This relief catalyst created early upside momentum, pushing the index toward all-time highs (ATHs). However, the tone shifted mid-week. The rally lost steam as markets refocused on a growing concern: the sustainability of current Tech and AI valuations. Investors are becoming more sensitive to the possibility of overstretched AI-related capital expenditure and an emerging bubble narrative, especially with heavyweight earnings and forward-guidance looming. This led to a rotation out of high-beta tech and into safer or less-extended sectors. On the macro front, Fed speakers adopted a more cautious—if not outright hawkish—tone, emphasizing that a December rate cut is far from assured. The recent government shutdown created a backlog in key economic data releases, leaving policymakers and traders alike without clear visibility into the true state of the economy. The lack of data has amplified uncertainty and reduced the market’s conviction around the timing of any potential policy easing. In short: The market is caught between two opposing forces: The optimistic narrative (shutdown resolved, path to ATHs, resilience in U.S. growth), and The risk narrative (valuation excess, policy uncertainty, narrowing breadth). This push-pull dynamic has resulted in compression rather than continuation, with a heavy focus on clarity from upcoming data and major earnings. What is the Market Doing? Last week formed an inside week, with the entire range trading within the prior week’s range and settling close to the previous week’s close. This signals indecision and balance, as neither buyers nor sellers had the conviction to push the market into expansion. Current price action shows the market compressing between: 6875 — previous week’s VPOC / 27 Oct weekly VAL 6740— 13 Oct weekly VAH / 10 Nov weekly volume ledge These levels are well-defined and respected. The upward trendline continues to hold, with multiple strong rejections signaling responsive buyers stepping in to bid prices back up. The battle is now between buyers attempting to defend 6740 area which is also confluent with the daily trendline support, and sellers leaning on the overhead resistance close to 6875. What to Expect in the Coming Week The key line in the sand (LIS) this week: → 6755.25 — Previous week's settlement Bullish Scenario If 6755 holds as support, expect buyers to attempt a push toward: 6874.50 — previous week's VPOC 6905.5— weekly 1-SD volatility high Anticipate responsive sellers in this area. However, if price breaks above 6874.50 with pace and volume and accepts above it, the path opens for a retest of the ATHs as momentum players and trapped shorts fuel continuation. Bearish Scenario If the market accepts below 6755 and fails to reclaim it on any pullback: First downside target: 6660 — 13 Oct weekly VAL If buyers fail to respond there, expect an acceleration lower from long liquidation toward: 6605— weekly 1-SD volatility low 6504 — previous month's low (deeper target) This scenario strengthens if the trendline breaks and sellers begin stepping down aggressively. Neutral / Compression Scenario If the market remains trapped between 6875 and 6740 with no breakout supported by pace and volume: Expect two-way rotational trade Continued compression and balance within the well-defined range A buildup of energy that may resolve later in the week with data, earnings or fundamental catalysts Conclusion As we start the new week, ES remains tightly coiled between well-defined levels, with the market waiting for clarity from data, earnings, and policy signals. Whether we break from compression or continue to balance, the key will be how buyers and sellers respond around 6755 and whether there are new fundamental catalysts. As always, I’d love to hear your view on the markets and ES this week? — Drop it below — and give it a boost so more of the community can join the conversation. Glossary Index for all technical terms used: VAH (Value Area High) VAL (Value Area Low) VPOC (Volume Point of Control) SD (Standard Deviation)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
12
ES - December 11th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 11th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:45am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We had an explosive Fed afternoon but ultimately have still not broken out of the range we have been for weeks. Overnight we lost nearly 100pts and I said on my late day note that price "should not lose 6885 if this is going to move higher in the overnight session". We started moving lower at the open and found a bottom at 10pm around 6817. Remember yesterday's low was 6830 and since we bounced at 6817, we built a very nice flag between 6828-6840 range. This finally broke out after the European open and is currently building another flag between 6848-6857 as I type this post. We should clear these 6857 levels and continue to back test up the levels with 6872 being a major resistance. One key point I want to make is that the reason I typically only have 3-4 key levels to trade is because those are the levels that institutions are buying and everything in-between is noise. If you are unable to be patient for the key levels, you will lose more than you win. 6830 was yesterday's low and just like our session yesterday we got 3-4 opportunities at the 6834 level that produced some nice bounces and finally a nice move to test the 6904 top of the range. Overnight the reclaim of yesterday's low was 6830 and we held that level building a nice base for hours. This shows you the power of the key levels I have identified. 6818 was the first big level down and we bounced right at it and then reclaimed the daily low from yesterday. You can look at my chart from yesterday and see the levels and how they have been respected for over 24hrs. You can probably even look at Mondays post and see the exact same levels being respected. This is not guessing, it is understanding where institutions buy and where you need to be focused on getting points. Not all levels are the same! Focus on the Key Levels and save your capital from losing by trading between the levels! We are currently still in an active failed breakdown with the reclaim of 6830 earlier this am. This targets price to continue up the levels with us most likely retesting 6872. If we do not get a retest of 6830, we might be able to get a flush of 6848 and a reclaim there. Outside of this I would focus on the key levels below. Key Level Today - 1. 6848 Flush and Reclaim (Lower Quality) 2. 6830 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 3. 6817 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 4. 6801 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 5. 6790 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) IF price does flush lower, I would be patient and let price build a base at or below one of the key levels and wait for price to show that it wants to hold above that level. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
ES1 - Can A Fartcoin Predict A FOMC CorrectionThis is not a high certainty call but there are warning in lower dominance meme coins that may perhaps be signalling bearish action in the crypto that may be part of a canon to signal bearish action post FOMC. So, a speculative call, but I have adjusted risk based on this. This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by dRends35
7
ES - December 15th - Daily Trade Plan December 15th- Daily Trade Plan - 7am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Last week we closed around the same level as the previous week. While we tried to get above the 6925 level, we could not hold above it to keep the momentum heading higher. This week we have some economic data coming out and we can expect some volatility as we head into the last week of heavy trading volume for the year. This week should set the tone for the remainder of the year. The overnight session low is 6823 and we have some clear levels that have held since we rallied into the overnight session high of 6865 (as of writing this post). 6851 is our first immediate support and 6843 being a level that should hold if we want to keep going higher. Price is in a tough spot for new entries this am as we are looking to continue higher to back test the 6885 level. You might be able to find an entry on the back test of 6865 if we can clear it to 6870 then back test 6861-65 Key Levels Today - 1. 6843 - Flush and Reclaim (Lower Quality) 2. 6823 - Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 3. 6801-05 - Flush and Reclaim (Highest Quality) I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
SPY: The Final Capitulation Before the Blow OffThe S&P 500 has experienced notably choppy price action over the past 60 days following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. Many large-cap stocks most notably Nvidia, which saw a substantial rally have provided attractive profit-taking opportunities. Since then, the broader market has been trading sideways and, more specifically, within a local downtrend over the last 30 days. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this pullback may be unfolding as a complex WXY corrective structure. A WXY pattern is essentially a series of connected ABC corrections each consisting of a three-wave “measured moves" that collectively form a more drawn-out and often more intricate consolidation phase. These moves can be mathematically projected using fibonacci. The purpose of such a correction is typically to cool off the market after an extended rally. This cooling phase can manifest as a meaningful price decline, a time-based consolidation, or a combination of both. Ultimately, it allows market sentiment to reset and establishes a balanced range from which a stronger, more sustainable breakout can occur. The main point of uncertainty lies in whether the W wave has been correctly identified. The subsequent X wave appears to form an expanding flat structure composed of three waves, ending with an impulsive move that taps the 1.618 extension—aligning well with typical Fibonacci market mathematics. If a final Y-wave leg lower is still ahead, we have a clearly defined 1% invalidation level. Below that, a deeper sweep of the previous low becomes possible, allowing us to draw a trend-based Fibonacci extension from the W and X pivots to project a potential termination point for wave Y. I’ll be closely monitoring this lower region, as it could present an excellent buying opportunity—one that could position the market for significantly higher upside targets and, at minimum, a retest or sweep of the current all-time highs.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by afurs1
ES (SPX, SPY) Week-Ahead Analysis (Dec 15-19, 2025)Market Overview: The Week Ahead This week marks a pivotal moment for the markets as focus shifts from narratives to hard data. Key economic indicators will be released, including U.S. jobs figures on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday, both scheduled for 8:30 AM ET. Additionally, the Bank of Japan will convene on December 18-19, with a consensus anticipating a 25 basis point hike, bringing rates up to 0.75%. In a week filled with significant releases, we often see market behavior akin to a compressed spring - characterized by volatility as traders await fresh data, followed by a rapid price adjustment once new information emerges. Historically, the most lucrative trading opportunities materialize at the edges of established price ranges, rather than in the middle. Technical Analysis: Trading Structure Weekly Outlook The broader market structure remains constructive, although current trading suggests we may be nearing what appears to be a “ceiling zone” following a recent advance. This level could facilitate rapid upside movements, albeit sustained acceptance is proving more challenging. Notably, momentum is easing rather than collapsing. Daily Perspective The daily market profile indicates a potential recovery phase following significant liquidation. Buyers seem to be regrouping to establish a solid base, while sellers are actively defending against upside pressures. This dynamic often results in pronounced intra-day fluctuations but tends to exhibit limited follow-through absent a triggering catalyst. 4-Hour Analysis Recent trading patterns align with a classic sequence: an initial impulse downward followed by a corrective consolidation. In such market conditions, rallies hitting resistance levels are often mere tests rather than true breakouts until prices can convincingly maintain levels above key ceilings. On an intraday basis, the market is currently in a tight range above the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), frequently encountering resistance at the same overhead levels. This setup typically leads to one of two outcomes: either a pop-and-fail at resistance which presents a clear short opportunity or a flush-and-reclaim at support offering a viable entry for longs. Investors should remain alert for market responses to the upcoming economic data, as this will likely set the tone for price movements in the days ahead. Risk Pricing Analysis: Current Market Sentiment As we assess the current market landscape, it's clear that we are not in a state of panic; however, there are signs that market participants are pricing for potential tail risks. The VIX spot index stands at 15.74 as of December 12, indicating a moderate level of volatility expectations. Similarly, the MOVE index, which measures the volatility of interest rates, is at 69.25 on the same date, reflecting some instability in that realm. In credit markets, we see a High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) of 2.88 on December 11, suggesting that conditions remain orderly despite the slight increase in risk premiums. Notably, the SKEW index is currently at 153.59, indicating that crash insurance is priced considerably rich compared to historical norms, signaling investor concerns about downside risk. The put/call ratio is at 0.91 with a 10-day moving average of 0.86, which does not indicate extreme levels of fear among traders. Additionally, market breadth reflects a somewhat subdued environment, with 221 advancing stocks versus 280 declining stocks on December 12. While this does not signify outright capitulation, it suggests that overall market strength is lacking. In summary, the prevailing market conditions appear to favor sharp reactions to new catalysts, with the expectation of mean-reversion unless volatility in credit and rates begins to escalate. The catalyst calendar that can flip the trend Tuesday Dec 16 - 08:30 ET US Employment Situation for November is scheduled for release. Thursday Dec 18 - 08:30 ET US CPI for November is scheduled for release, plus Real Earnings. Important nuance for this CPI Because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, the CPI release has documented limitations (missing October data prevents some 1-month changes from being published). That can widen the interpretation range and produce bigger price swings than a normal CPI day. Thursday Dec 18 (global central banks) • BoE is widely expected to cut 25 bp to 3.75%. • ECB is expected to hold the deposit rate at 2% next week. BOJ Dec 18-19 Baseline expectation is a 25 bp hike from 0.50% to 0.75%, with guidance as the bigger lever. **Why the Bank of Japan Influences U.S. Stocks: An Analytical Perspective** The Bank of Japan (BOJ) functions as a global “funding thermostat.” When its monetary policy is anchored near zero, it indirectly fosters a stable environment for risk assets globally, as funding remains inexpensive and reliable. Conversely, tightening measures from the BOJ can ripple through financial markets, impacting not only Japan but also the broader global financial system. Here’s a breakdown of how BOJ actions affect U.S. stock indices: 1. Yen Channel (Risk Appetite): A rate hike or hawkish signals from the BOJ typically strengthen the Japanese yen. A stronger yen can compel investors to trim risk exposure in their portfolios, especially in positions sensitive to foreign exchange fluctuations and funding costs. This de-risking effect often hits high-beta equities first, leading to notable adjustments in U.S. markets. 2. Global Discount-Rate Channel (Valuations): As Japanese yields rise and global term premiums stabilize, the discount rate applied to U.S. equities tends to increase. This scenario generally poses challenges for long-duration equities, particularly growth-oriented stocks. A decline in this growth-heavy leadership can drag down the overall index, even amid a stable economic backdrop. 3. Cross-Border Flow and Hedging Channel (Subtle Pressure): Japan is a significant investor in foreign assets (especially US). Changes in domestic yields can alter the appeal of these foreign investments and the associated hedging costs. It’s not necessary to witness a dramatic repatriation for market movements to occur; even modest reallocations, coupled with adjustments in hedging strategies, can tighten financial conditions incrementally. 4. Timing Channel (Gaps): The BOJ typically makes its announcements during U.S. off-hours, heightening the likelihood of gaps in futures trading (like the E-mini S&P 500). Such gaps can disrupt typical intraday trading patterns, forcing traders to navigate wider risk parameters as they react to fresh information. Practical Implications: A surprise hawkish stance from the BOJ increases the odds of the E-mini S&P 500 testing lower support levels initially (S2 followed by S3/S4). Conversely, if the BOJ’s communication aligns with market expectations and is accompanied by a calm demeanor, the resultant market reaction may function as a temporary impetus, quickly yielding the spotlight back to upcoming U.S. jobs data and CPI readings. Geopolitics and Inflation: Key Insights for the Week Ahead This week, energy risk has resurfaced on the market’s radar. The U.S. seizure of the Venezuelan oil tanker M/T Skipper, accompanied by intensified enforcement actions, has disrupted Venezuelan export flows and sparked increased discussions about potential supply disruptions. These developments are crucial, as headlines related to oil tend to boost inflation expectations, particularly just before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. The situation in the Middle East remains precarious, with ongoing developments regarding the stability of a ceasefire in Gaza heightening sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. This uncertainty adds an additional layer of complexity to market dynamics. Meanwhile, the normalization of shipping routes is unfolding at a sluggish pace. A return to operations in the Suez/Red Sea lanes is expected to be a gradual process, with estimates suggesting a 60-90 day transition period once it officially commences. On the economic front, the tone surrounding China’s growth appears to be softening. Recent figures show November industrial output rising by 4.8% year-over-year and retail sales increasing by just 1.3% year-over-year, indicating a weakening momentum in demand. Analysts will be closely monitoring these developments, as they could significantly influence market trends and inflation forecasts in the near term. Navigating NY Sessions with Precision In analyzing the upcoming New York trading sessions, it’s crucial to establish a clear scenario map that demarcates potential trading paths based on market behavior around key data releases. The most probable trading scenario is expected to involve two-way trades within established price shelves, characterized by potentially sharp price movements during the Tuesday and Thursday 08:30 data releases. Historically, such movements have a tendency to mean-revert towards the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Point of Control (POC) unless the incoming data significantly deviates from market expectations. For traders anticipating a bearish extension, key triggers include sustained price acceptance below 6828.50, the Yearly Point of Control (Y-POC), followed by failure to reclaim 6810.50 (Yearly Value Area Low). Acceptance below 6805.00 the previous day’s low would solidify this bearish outlook. In this scenario, any rallies are likely to be viewed as opportunities to “sell the bounce” until a market reclaim signifies strength. Conversely, a bullish surprise may unfold if prices hold above 6850.00, particularly post-data release. A reclaim of the 6889.50 to 6896.25 range, establishing it as a support floor, could trigger a short squeeze, pushing prices towards 6903.00 and subsequently 6915.50. This bullish path would be contingent on genuine acceptance above these levels. Trading Execution Strategy To navigate these scenarios effectively, traders should focus on optimal execution windows during the New York AM session from 09:30 to 11:00, and in the PM session from 13:30 to 16:00. It’s advisable to treat the Tuesday and Thursday 08:30 data releases as distinct trading regimes; traders should observe initial market impulses before seeking to capitalize on subsequent moves from established price shelves. Risk management is paramount. A pass-fail gate is established whereby the first take profit (TP1) should be positioned at a minimum of 2.0 times the risk from the predefined stop, ideally anchored to a 15-minute candle wick or market structure. Limit trading attempts to two per level per session, implementing daily guardrails to exit positions at a loss of -2R and securing profits at +3R. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES - December 12th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 12th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:30am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We have had a great week and while trend points to price continuing to move higher, after we have a nice move like we did yesterday, price can chop around for a day or two before continuing higher. Yesterday's overnight low was 6817 with 6830 being the big base that took us higher. 6862 was a key pivot area yesterday as moved over 100+pts on the day. Since we finished at highs of the day and we gapped down overnight with the overnight high being 6915 and the overnight low is 6892. We will not have any of our highest quality levels unless we sell off below 6862. As I type this plan, we are currently attempting to reclaim the 6902 level, which has an overnight resistance shelf and a bull flag that looks to be building. Ideally, we can flush 6892 (possibly down to 6885) or lose 6902 and reclaim to take us higher. Below 6885 and we will need to see price hold 6872 with 6862 being the lowest to keep us moving higher. I do think we can close the gap from the overnight session and give 6925-29 another attempt today. I will patiently wait until the 9:30am open and see what price does in the first 5-10 mins. If price flushes and reclaims 6892 prior to the open, then I will take that level to level move. Outside of that I expect us to chop around in this range until price finds direction after the open. Key Levels - 1. 6892 Flush and reclaim (Maybe as low as 6885) 2. 6885 Flush and reclaim (Maybe as low as 6872) 3. 6872 Flush and reclaim (Maybe as low as 6862) I hate trading when price is close to highs and with no high-quality levels close to price. I will size down and use the levels that price gives but will be taking profits quickly at each level above. For any new followers, that would mean that I would enter a position, sell 1/2 or 3/4 of that position at the next level up and then leave a runner to catch a couple of more levels higher. Example - We lose 6892 down to 6885-87, I will then enter on the reclaim of 6892 and sell 3/4 at 6902 and leave a runner. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2