SPX to 8,111 Trump Channel is Established !!!!SPX to 8,111 Trump Channel is Established !!!!
Sell all your bonds
MES1! trade ideas
Day 22 — Trading Only S&P Futures & Market analysisWelcome to Day 22 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
Today I kept things simple — waited for the 10am JOLTS report to set direction and only got long after we held the 1-min MOB. Even then, I stayed cautious since price was still under 6465 resistance.
I focused on gamma levels, which played out clean on both the buy and sell side. The only real slip-up was a FOMO long, and that reminded me of an important rule: I should only size up when I’ve got 2+ confirmations. If I take a trade with less, it needs to be 1 contract only — risk management first.
Closed the session with +256.25, ending the day disciplined and green.
📰 News Highlights
U.S. JULY JOLTS JOB OPENINGS FALL TO 7.181M (EST. 7.380M, PREV. 7.357M) — LOWEST SINCE MARCH 2021
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6470 = Flip Bullish
Below 6450 = Remain Bearish
S&P500: Short-Term Pullback Before Next RallyS&P futures initially slipped yesterday but managed to stabilize soon. Our primary outlook is that the ongoing turquoise wave B will continue to move higher, likely topping out just below resistance at 6,675 points. After that, we expect wave C to drive the index directly into the magenta long Target Zone between 6,082 and 5,650 points, where the low of the wave (4) correction should be established. From there, the impulsive wave (5) is expected to begin, pushing the index above the 6,675 points resistance and completing the broader blue wave (III). Alternatively, there is a 35% chance that the index could break out directly above 6,675 points without first reaching the magenta Target Zone. In this scenario, the index would already be forming the alternative wave alt.(5) in magenta.
idea for S&P500 9/3i wanna play it long as long as market holds on my demand zone or pop up strongly and keep above the last supply around 6.466
Long Setup on ES Futures Near Key Support (6360–6365)Looking to initiate a medium- to long-term long position on ES futures around the 6360–6365 zone. After a multi-day pullback, ES is approaching a well-defined support area.
How the price is approaching this level is a great indication of a potential bounce. This type of setup often leads to a strong reaction off key levels.
Entry Zone: 6360–6365
Stop Loss: 6240
Take Profit 1: 6431
Take Profit 2: 6475
ES - September 3rd - Daily Trade Plan - UpdateSeptember 3rd - 7:25am EST
I wanted to provide an update on today's levels and what has transpired overnight. Price opened around 6448 and grinded down into the white trendline support. This trendline you can also see on the weekly chart (See Related Publications) and yesterday when we dropped below it, we then retested it at 6423 level, tested again in the afternoon to 6426, and we have then back tested it this evening down to 6426 and rallied from there, broke above the overnight high of 6448 and have come into resistance at 6460.
Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly High/Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low
3. Zoom out on a 4hr, 6hr, chart and you will see a trendline from August 22 Low at 6364 which started the massive move to 6496. It is also the same trendline connecting the August 1st low that rallied to 6508. Both levels created rallies that lasted for 200+ pts. That does not mean we will see another rally like that, unless we can reclaim the weekly high of 6491 and then take it level to level from there.
Our first support down is the 6448 level. A flush and reclaim of this level, should take us higher. Each level in yellow are areas that price could flush, recover and climb level to level. My edge as a trader is to try and take 10pts+ out of the market and generally I am looking to do that by flushing a high-quality level, recover and ride it to the next level.
Immediate Resistances - 6460, 6472, 6476, 6485
Immediate Supports - 6448, 6437, 6426, 6412
Ideally, we need to hold the 6426 level or flush and reclaim quickly. IF, price can't rally above 6476, my lean is we are in the midst of a change in character of price, and I will be looking lower for levels to flush and reclaim.
I will send out an update around 10am.
Inside dayThe structure expected for the S&P 500 daily chart is for Wednesday to trade inside of Tuesday's range. It will take new fundamental information to drive volatility in this market.
ES (Sep 3): short pops into 6420–6435; watch JOLTS & Beige BookHTF still skews bearish; intraday bounce stalled into overhead supply. For Wednesday (Sep 3), I’m planning sell-the-pop into 6420–6435 with confirmation. News risk: JOLTS 10:00 ET, Factory Orders 9:00 ET, Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET. ISM Services & ADP are Thursday (not Wed).
HTF bias (top-down)
• Weekly/Daily: Price rolled off the 6.5k zone; momentum flattening; room to probe lower demand in coming sessions.
• 4H/1H: Clean LH→LL sequence; today’s bounce tagged supply, then ranged under it. Bias sell rallies until acceptance above the ceiling.
Key zones I’m using (approx.)
• Supply / short zones: 6420–6435 (NY PM high / intraday OB cluster).
• Hard liquidity / targets below: 6396 → 6378 → 6310–6280 (HTF demand/extension cluster).
• Invalidation / flip line: 6448–6450 (15m/30m acceptance above = stand down shorts; consider flip long on retest).
Numbers reflect my mapping from today’s 30m/15m/5m; execution still needs rulebook confirmation (see below).
A++ setup (primary)
Short the pop into 6420–6435
• Trigger: 15m bearish context plus a 5m bearish close inside the zone (no exceptions).
• Initial stop: 6448 (or last swing high if tighter).
• TPs: TP1 6396 (scale ½) → TP2 6378 → TP3 6310.
• Management: Move stop → BE only after structure break or 15m/30m close through TP1; trail runners by 15m/30m swings.
Flip scenario (only if invalidated)
If we accept above 6448–6450 (15m close + hold), I’ll look long on a retest 6448–6452 toward 6463 → 6476+, provided structure confirms.
Macro calendar (what actually hits Wednesday Sep 3)
• 09:00 — Factory Orders (Jul) (Census M3; FRED calendar lists the release).  
• 10:00 — JOLTS (Jul) (labor demand; BLS schedule). 
• 14:00 — Fed Beige Book (regional conditions; often a volatility nudge). 
Upcoming playLooking for this gap fill and then determine a continued upward direction or breakdown to retest the lower area of the day.
Upside continuation or retest and breakdown?Waiting to see how price holds in the 6430 range. Possible continuation to 6480 and back down to 6380.
Day 21 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$417 Tilted LossDay 21 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$417 Tilted LosWelcome to Day 21 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
Today was a tough one — I turned a positive morning into a -417.18 loss.
I started the day green, up about +150, but made the mistake of assuming the market had already bottomed at 6384. When it broke lower to 6374, I got stopped out at the true bottom of the day.
Frustration set in, and I tilted. I put on a 10-contract short at the MOB, expecting a rejection, but the EOD MOC imbalance and strong news from Google pushed the market higher, blowing past my stop.
The lesson today? Don’t fight the market, and never size up when you’re on tilt.
📰 News Highlights
DOW ENDS DOWN 250 POINTS, VIX JUMPS AS STOCKS DROP TO KICK OFF SEPTEMBER
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6465 = Flip Bullish
Below 6450 = Remain Bearish
ES - September 3rd - Daily Trade Plan September 2nd - 4:10pm - Update & Trade Plan
I said last night that " Below 6459 and we will need to most likely get out the way and let price flush a few levels". That we did overnight right before the European open, we flushed 6459 and could not reclaim the level, then tested last week's 6430 level, bounced around 20pts and flushed again down to 6382, bounced and back tested the 6423 resistances. I posted a note at 11:20am EST " IF, price can't hold 6383, look for a flush to 6372, 6358 and a reclaim of those levels above. At 11:53 we flushed down to 6371.75 and started to build a nice base and then went higher the rest of the session. Where are we closing? Right into the 6445 resistance that is important to clear to keep things moving higher!
Plan for the overnight session/tomorrow am as follows:
Our first support down is 6421, 6412 then 6397. Ideally, overnight we can pull back to the 6383-86 level, flush, then reclaim or even better, flush 6371.75 then reclaim for continuation higher.
I did say yesterday that "I am still bullish above 6390, but a break below this level would be a warning to the current trend." We broke below and recovered it today. We could have another bounce left in the tank at the levels discussed above but would ideally see a slow grind into those areas, and not a big flush. Pretty simple for tomorrow, still cautiously bullish until we clear the 6455 level that we broke down from last night.
My lean is we chop around overnight between 6445-6397 with 6385-87 the lowest we would want to chop down to, or we will most likely need to retest 6371 sessions low. IF, we lose the session low, the levels below are of interest and level reclaims will be expected bounces higher. IF, price is flushing, 6368-64, 6333.50 are the 2 big levels of interest to me.
I will send out an update tomorrow around 6am EST after price digests the overnight session.
selling opportunity at market edge for downtrend continuation 1->3 : 2 is proven sellers
3->4 : return to proven sellers
what next?
* hidden divergence
* obv trendline uptrend rejection,
potential sellers entry
* zone trading 76% accuracy if close
below
Bearish autumn NQ and ESThis autumn will give us a retracement on the indicies in my opinion. We have seasional tendencies for bearishness and divergence on the weekly and daily charts on the tops.
Core PCE to Wrap the WeekEquity markets are trending lower to finish out a week that came with a vast slate of earnings and economic data many traders have been waiting for. We saw NVIDIA earnings, GDP, and finished the week today with the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator Core PCE, which came right in line with expectations at 2.9%, which was a slight increase over last month. The Nasdaq is leading the equities lower trading down near 1.4% and the S&P and Russell saw small losses after the S&P hit a new record high this week.
Overall this month, the S&P, Nasdaq, Gold and Silver were able to carve out a new all time high price this month and came off of those levels slightly to finish the week and month out. As it stands now, the market is pricing in a 25-basis point interest rate cut near 85% for the September meeting, so traders will be more concerned about how hawkish or dovish Powell sounds after the report comes out for future rate cuts. Next week, we will get more data on manufacturing, jobs, nonfarm payrolls, and unemployment that could add additional volatility to these markets that have been trending higher as of late.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Futures Slip From Highs as Trend Width Flattens, Bias Still UpMarket Overview:
Pullback day near recent highs: breadth softens (12–2), trend width remains wide but begins to flatten, and futures hold above the first momentum threshold with corrective zones well below.
Bullish/Bearish Trend Analysis
Trend Condition:
Bullish Trends: 12
Bearish Trends: 2
Overview: The market is bullish, with 12 trend lines signaling upward momentum, though two bearish lines appear—showing a mild softening in breadth.
Trend Condition
Current Trend State:
The 14-line trend stack is slightly compressing versus yesterday.
Width: Wide—elevated, beginning to flatten.
Implication: Wide-but-flattening often precedes consolidation; a re-widening would argue for continuation.
Price Action and Momentum Zones
Current Price and Change:
Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 6,423.00, down by 51.00 pts or 0.79%.
Market Behavior:
Orderly pullback from recent highs; buyers faded, sellers testing the upper momentum band but no decisive breakdown.
Momentum Zones:
Price remains above the 23.6% threshold (6,123.92), the bullish momentum zone. The 38.2%–61.8% band at 5,877.04–5,477.96 is the countertrend, corrective demand area on deeper weakness.
Fib Retracement Levels
Current Position Relative to Levels:
The market is above the 23.6% Fib retracement.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
23.6% → 6,123.92
38.2% → 5,877.04
50.0% → 5,677.50
61.8% → 5,477.96
Analysis:
Staying above 6,123.92 preserves bullish momentum. Continued compression or a close beneath momentum support would shift focus toward the corrective band.
Overall Market Interpretation
Uptrend intact but cooling at the top of the range. Slight breadth deterioration and a flattening stack raise consolidation risk unless trend width re-expands and buyers reclaim control.
Summary
The tape slipped from recent highs with breadth easing to 12–2. Trend width is still wide but flattening, keeping the bias modestly bullish while increasing the odds of a short consolidation if compression deepens.
S&P500 about to BREAK downLook at the chart, its very EVIDENT. with this overbought and bullish sentiment, i expect the markets to CORRECT further. its still extreme greedy. You can see the support lines. S&P can correct somewhere between 5-9%. Be prepared.
SP:SPX TVC:SPX CBOE:SPX SPREADEX:SPX CBOE:XSP
S&P 500 (ES) Nearing Diagonal Wave 5 CompletionOn August 2, the S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ES) pulled back to 6239.50, marking the low of wave 4. Wave 5, now underway, is unfolding as a five-wave diagonal pattern. A defining trait of a diagonal is the overlap between wave ((i)) and wave ((iv)) within its internal structure. From the wave 4 low, wave ((i)) peaked at 6508.75, followed by a retreat to 6362.75, concluding wave ((ii)). The index then resumed its upward trajectory in wave ((iii)), which itself contains a five-wave subdivision. From wave ((ii)), wave (i) reached 6424.25, and a brief dip to 6364 completed wave (ii).
The index climbed again in wave (iii) to 6496.25, with a subsequent pullback in wave (iv) ending at 6430.75. The final leg, wave (v), concluded at 6523, completing wave ((iii)). Wave ((iv)) then unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. From wave ((iii)), wave (a) dropped to 6488.75, wave (b) rallied to 6505.75, and wave (c) declined to 6455.5, finalizing wave ((iv)). In the near term, as long as the pivot low at 6363 holds, any dips should find support in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern, setting the stage for further upside. This outlook supports continued bullish momentum in the index.
$MES_F $ES_F Trading Range for 9.2.25
Ok, so we are heading into tomorrow after the three day weekend a little bearish. Friday every candle printed red and the 35EMA is above us facing down so definitely look to that as resistance.
30min 200MA underneath us still facing up so we could see a technical bounce there, you can see that extended hours are sitting right on top of that level.
And way at the bottom of the trading range we have the 1hr 200MA - good to know that’s there.
Let’s go, y’all. I have officially been converted into a futures trader so new regular ticker right here.
Short ES to Last Week's LowES is looking heavy with a steady decreasing Cumulative Volume Delta this evening. There is a 500 order block sitting at last week's lows just below 6430, so I'm thinking we head down to that level and test the support there.
Day 20 — Trading Only S&P Futures + Monthly resultsWelcome to Day 20 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
Today’s session was all about patience and letting levels do the work.
I started with the X3DD sell signal, but the move was too fast to size in big. Instead, I waited for price to break under 6485 (yesterday’s level) and added a couple of short positions. Later, I shifted focus to the 6463 bottom support — went long there a few times and those trades worked out great.
By holding discipline and repeatedly trading around these levels, I closed the day with +365.28.
📌 This video is going up a little late — I’ve also asked ChatGPT to analyze my last month of trading data to highlight win rates, patterns, and improvements. That deeper analysis is also in the video.
Here's the prompt
"I have trade data from the last month that I’d like you to analyze. Please perform a detailed data analysis and highlight interesting insights, such as patterns, strengths, weaknesses, and potential improvements in my trading approach. A few important notes about my strategy and data: Risk/Reward: I typically trade using a 2x risk to 1x reward setup. This gives me more flexibility to turn trades into winners and avoid stop-loss hunts. Please calculate the win rate I need to achieve to be profitable with this risk/reward ratio. Trade Grouping: My trade count may appear higher than it actually is because sometimes I enter with multiple contracts and scale out at different price levels. If you see trades with the same entry or exit prices, please group them as a single trade. Analysis Goals: Show win rate, average profit/loss, risk-adjusted return, and drawdowns. Identify what worked well and what didn’t. Highlight any tendencies or biases (e.g., time of day, entry type, asset type). Suggest improvements based on the data. Please make the analysis as practical and data-driven as possible."
📈 Key Levels for Tomorrow:
Above 6480 = Flip Bullish
Below 6460 = Flip Bearish
ES - September 2nd - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 1st - 5:55pm EST - Overnight Session & Daily Trade Plan
We have a short week with volume picking up moving forward into a seasonally down period. I said on the weekly plan that "Due to low volume on Monday, I do not expect us to get much higher than 6496 in the Monday session, with some headline taking us down Tuesday to 6431 area".
Last night's session our high was 6491.50 and we retested Friday's low around 6459.50. I have put in white a potential bear flag that could continue higher to the 6496.50 level. IF, price does not clear 6505 and hold, we will need to retest the levels below and that could be 6472, 6453 for us to flush and reclaim. Below 6459 and we will need to most likely get out the way and let price flush a few levels, reclaim and back test the 6455-59 zone.
Support levels in yellow that we could flush and reclaim to push higher are as follows:
6455-59, 6450, 6437-40, 6430, 6419, 6411. I believe that 6430 (Last week's low) will give us a good reaction and then 6411 which is the area we broke out from Friday August 22nd. I expect us to have a choppy overnight session with tomorrow's NYSE open giving us direction and hopefully breaking out of this choppy range between 6455- 6496.
I am still bullish above 6390, but a break below this level would be a warning to the current trend.
I will provide an update tomorrow am around 8:30am EST. Check out my Weekly Trade plan in the related publication section to the right.
