ES UpdateES MFI is oversold, RSI never hit it, which is why I was saying possible melt up on ES.
We'll see what happens today, I'm guessing tomorrow will be a CPI (delayed release) pump.
Trade ideas
Buyers continue momentum to the upsideThe daily structure in the S&P 500 implies buyers have returned to the market and follow through to the upside would be expected. The next objective would be 6812.
The Game of RiskWith the futures creeping up after the numbers it's looking more and more like a B wave is completing this morning, with a C wave down next for today and tomorrow. Holding support at 6500 (on futures) would likely get the 4 hour rsi in a divergent low posture. That divergent low could propel the SPX to new highs into next week.
ES - October 15th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 15th - 6:25am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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I am not going to go into much detail about yesterday as I have detailed out the trades that I took, which aligned with my edge. It was a great short squeeze yesterday and it all played out at the optimal timeframe while I was at my desk.
The overnight low is 6683 and our overnight high is 6732. I stated in the 4:52pm note yesterday that " Any reclaim of 6692-94 would be bullish overnight and give us another attempt at the 6720 level to take price higher." - This is what happened and we have grinded into some overhead resistance at 6732 with 6738-42 being a strong resistance.
Since price grinded slowly higher overnight, my lean is we need a pullback to keep things moving higher.
While I do not rely solely on technical bull/bear flags, the white trendlines that are drawn, could be a bearish structure that could reach 6742-44 area, then pullback to the 6642 area. The white trendline moving up, IF, price reaches it, should give us a nice bounce for points, then we would expect price to lose this level and move lower.
(IF, price does pull back and we take out the 6744-48 level and are successful, any back test should be good for price to move higher, this would also make the bear flag invalid)
Levels I am looking to grab some points at today:
1. Any loss and reclaim of 6705
2. Loss of 6683 and reclaim (maybe getting as low as 6666 and then reclaim 6674)
3. Loss of 6660 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6632 and reclaim (could be the bounce of the white trendline)
5. Loss of 6593 and reclaim (Yesterday's low)
Below those levels and we will most likely be in free fall to retest the 6540 level which could be the last area to give us a bounce.
IF, price loses any levels lower than 6540, you will want to be patient and let price build a base to take a long on the reclaim of a level above.
Key Support Levels - 6720, 6705, 6683, 6674, 6660, 6642, 6632, 6624, 6593, 6575, 6550, 6540
Key Resistance Levels - 6732, 6744-48, 6758, 6778
IF, price rallies above 6732 (Overnight High) and then comes back into the overnight range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grabbing points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
S&P500: Rebound Offers Relief, But Downtrend Likely to ContinueThe S&P 500 managed to recover somewhat, which helped to partially offset the recent sell-offs. However, we continue to expect the ongoing wave (4) in magenta to extend further to the downside. We anticipate that the low of this wave will be reached within the similarly colored long Target Zone (6,055 points – 5,822 points), before a new upward move begins that should push the index above resistance at 6,812 points. At that level, the magenta five-wave sequence should be completed, and the high of the higher-level wave (III) in blue should be established. Given recent price action, we have added a bearish alternative scenario to the chart. This scenario suggests that the most recent high has already marked the end of the large wave alt.(III) in blue, and that the index has since entered the corrective wave alt.(IV) . If support at 5,528 points is breached, this scenario will be triggered. Long positions within the magenta Target Zone could therefore be protected with a stop set 1% below the lower edge of the zone to limit risk.
ES - October 17th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 17th - 6:32am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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Yesterday we had some really good levels to grab points for those traders that were patiently waiting for a pullback. 6717 was our first level and we had some great points at this level. You can review the daily trade plan and see the real-time notes of what trades I took.
Let's discuss today's plan!
When I woke up around 4am EST I was not too surprised to see we had sold off overnight. Mainly due to the fact we back tested the massive bear flag resistance, yesterday. I had mentioned yesterday that IF, we lose 6650, we would most likely head lower. I also wrote that price needed to clear 6703 for price to go higher.
Our overnight high is 6668 with our overnight low at 6571. Around 4:20am price held this 6571 level a couple of times, and I was actually able to grab points this morning with the failed breakdown of 6575. 6592 is a previous weekly low and as of writing this price is holding this level at the moment. 6592 will be a key level to hold or we will need to test 6559, 6549 or 6539. We currently have an inside weekly candle that IF, price holds 6540 today, would give us next week's candle close to help determine the direction in the short term as to where price may continue either above 6700 or below. (I will go into more detail on the weekly trade plan that comes out on Sunday).
Since I already got lucky this morning being up while price was building a nice base and reclaimed 6575 and made a very nice trade to end the week. I will not be trading anymore the rest of the day.
Today is OPEX and with this can come volatility. You have to be even more disciplined on days like today.
Key Levels for Today:
1. Any loss and reclaim of 6592
2. Reclaim of 6607 (Potentially wait for a back test of this level, it has been tested 2x this am, so probably will rally and may not provide much of a back test).
3. Loss of the overnight low of 6571 and reclaim for a move higher.
My general lean is that Institutions will sell off price in the first hour down to 6559, 6549 and potentially 6540. Any loss of these levels and reclaim of them to move higher is what you need to be looking for. I do believe, IF, price clears 6607 we will most likely test the 6632-level minimum. IF, price can make it 6642 that is a bonus. IF, we are in a longer-term downtrend, price should not reclaim 6700. Today is ripe for a short squeeze and I would be patient and wait for some good levels to grab points from. IF, price loses 6540, I would wait for a reclaim of that level. IF, price does lose the level and can't reclaim it quickly, I would get out the way and take the rest of the day off.
Key Support Levels - 6592, 6571, 6559, 6549, 6539, 6514, 6495
Key Resistance Levels - 6607, 6624, 6632, 6642, 6652, 6668, 6683, 6703
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
When Liquidity Dried Up — The True Story Behind the Oct 10 Crash█ We Actually Saw It Coming
There were clear signs of potential reversals across major markets before the Friday, October 10, 2025 crash. You can see it in the liquidity heatmaps: Gold, Bitcoin, S&P, and other futures all trading above their top 10 liquidity levels.
When that happens, it’s usually a warning flag. Price is moving into areas with less visible liquidity, meaning fewer resting orders available to absorb aggressive buyers. That’s when the market becomes fragile and doesn’t take much to trigger a sharp reversal.
█ When Price Trades Beyond Visible Liquidity
It’s easy to think big moves happen just because of news, but beneath the surface, microstructure signals often show when markets are already vulnerable.
One of the clearest is when the mid-price extends beyond the visible liquidity, above the top few ask levels or below the top few bid levels in the order book.
Suppose price pushes beyond the visible top levels. In that case, it often means that liquidity was consumed faster than it could replenish, either because aggressive orders cleared it out, or market makers pulled their quotes. That’s when we get what’s called a liquidity vacuum.
Research from the Federal Reserve, Bank for International Settlements, and academic studies (Lo & Hall, 2014; Meldrum & Sokolinskiy, 2025) all point to the same thing:
When order book depth is shallow, markets become more fragile. Prices overreact, spreads widen, and shocks travel faster.
█ What the Heatmap Really Shows
Those heatmaps are a visual snapshot of this structure.
The green and red bands show the depth of buy and sell orders — the liquidity zones.
The blue line is the mid-price — the true current market price.
When the blue line (mid-price) moves above the red zone, it means price has traded beyond the top available asks. That can happen because:
Buyers lifted all nearby sell orders (aggressive buying), or
Sellers pulled liquidity (passive withdrawal).
In both cases, the effect is the same, the book thins out, and volatility risk increases.
Heatmaps don’t show everything though. They don’t reveal:
Hidden or iceberg orders deeper in the book,
Off-exchange liquidity or block trades,
Or how quickly the book replenishes in real time.
But as a visual proxy, they’re incredibly useful for spotting moments when price runs ahead of available liquidity, often right before sharp reversals.
█ Why the Crash Hit So Hard
So while the crash came from unexpected news, the speed of that drop wasn’t random. Markets were already fragile. Liquidity across assets was thin. When the shock hit, there weren’t enough resting orders to slow it down.
Gold, Bitcoin, and S&P futures all had their mid-prices trading above visible liquidity, making them more sensitive to aggressive selling; that’s why the market fell almost simultaneously and so fast.
█ How I Handle These Setups
Whenever I see price trading above visible liquidity, I start managing risk differently. I might keep existing longs, but I won’t add new ones. Instead, I scale out gradually and watch for potential short setups if other signals confirm it.
It’s not about predicting crashes, it’s about recognizing when the market’s structure is fragile.
█ Quick Takeaway
When the mid-price trades above visible liquidity, the order book is telling you something simple but powerful:
“There’s not much support up here.”
That’s often when it pays to get defensive, not aggressive.
Access the CME Liquidity tool at this link
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NQ & ES Premarket Comment Friday 17-10-2025Good morning everyone.
Today, we’re operating within a balanced range — an equilibrium state. The daily bias remains neutral.
The potential scenarios for today are as follows:
1. Bullish scenario: Price could extend above yesterday’s high (PDH), as illustrated in the left-hand NQ chart.
2. Bearish scenario: Price could move lower, targeting last Friday’s low — this setup is shown in the right-hand ES chart.
The market structure will become clearer after the cash session opens at 09:30. By observing price action at the open, we’ll gain insight into the market’s true intent.
If the landscape remains unclear and your model does not align with price behavior, stay on the sidelines.
It’s Friday — the final trading day of the week — and price may exhibit unpredictable behavior or reactive moves. The key intraday levels are marked on the charts.
Stay disciplined, focused, and loyal to your model. Don’t let short-term volatility or choppy sessions affect your mindset. Relax, observe the price action, and let the market teach you.
See you later for the final market update of the week.
PF
gameplan for $ES_F – 10/20**Trade Plan – 10/20: $ES_F #ES_F**
📊 **Setup Overview:**
• $ES_F held above key **support at 6540**, bouncing off the daily trendline and reclaiming short-term strength.
• The broader **ascending wedge** remains intact, with **6806** as major resistance and **6540** acting as the line in the sand for bulls.
• The market is consolidating between **6540–6800**, awaiting a breakout catalyst — likely earnings or macro data.
🐂 **Bullish Scenario:**
• Stay above **6540** and push through **6700 → 6750** for continuation.
• Break and hold above **6806** targets **new highs** into the **6850–6900** zone.
🐻 **Bearish Scenario:**
• Lose **6540** → watch for a quick drop toward **6240 → 6169**.
• Below **6169**, momentum breaks the long-term structure and opens **5822** as the next major demand zone.
⚖️ **Key Levels:**
• Resistance → 6700 / 6750 / 6806
• Support → 6540 / 6240 / 6169
🕓 **What I’m Watching:**
• Daily close above **6700** confirms bullish continuation.
• Breakdown under **6540** confirms the first leg of a potential trend reversal.
• Earnings and Fed speakers could drive volatility — stay nimble near resistance zones.
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💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment if you’re trading $ES_F.
Follow **@optibiz_trades** for more market setups, trade plans, and daily insights!
We are at a tipping point that can potentally trigger a bear run
The 55 EMA is widely watched by institutions and swing traders as a medium-term trend gauge.
When price tests this line after a strong run or selloff:
Holding above often leads to trend continuation or strong bounce as seen in the path on my chart.
Losing it convincingly tends to signal a deeper correction or even a trend reversal.
Right now, ES is coiling around the 55EMA, which is the kind of tension point where volatility can explode.
Lower Trend Line = Structural Support
The fact that the EMA test with the lower trend line can adds weight to the downward movement.
When a support trend line and EMA level line up, it becomes a confluence zone meaning breakouts or breakdowns from here are often decisive.
A breakdown of this confluence could open the door to:
A larger corrective Wave A or C leg down.
Possibly a multi-month correction into year end if macro news doesn’t provide support.
Fundamental Catalyst Is Lurking
Tariff or trade-deal headlines can be the kind of fundamental catalyst that aligns perfectly with this technical pressure point.
That alignment is classic in Elliott Wave:
The technicals create the setup.
The news provides the spark.
The breakout or breakdown is fast and aggressive.
⚠️ This is why these zones are dangerous for complacent positioning both bulls and bears can get steamrolled when the move starts.
Two Clear Scenarios
Bullish: candle hold above 55 EMA + trend line then bounce toward upper channel, possibly Wave B or new Wave 3
Bearish: clean daily close below support with 55 EMA dropping below can trigger a multi week(s) correction, potential acceleration downward if no positive news
Bull case → initial target near upper trendline / Fib extension levels.
Bear case → retest of previous swing lows or even 0.618 retrace of the entire rally.
Risk Management Matters Most Here
This is the kind of zone where:
Stops should be clearly defined — not “mental.”
Position size should respect that a big move can be triggered fast.
Targets should be realistic, because reactions off the 55 EMA can be sharp.
“When technicals and fundamentals line up, the market doesn’t tiptoe, it sprints.”
Watch out for 3 drives patternWith the last two retracements to the 0.618 and a perfect touch of the 0.272, we currently have an ideal setup for a potential three drives pattern.
If it hits the final 0.272, it will coincide with CME_MINI:ES1! reaching new all-time highs before reversing for a possible 150-point drop.
Let's see how it evolves.
ES UpdateES and NQ are a lot closer to the gap fill.
I leave open the possibility that RSI goes deeper into oversold so that at least ES and NQ can fill the gap then bounce.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses - Key Levels, Setups for Thu (Oct 16)Kill-zones: London 02:00–05:00 · NY AM 09:30–11:00 · NY PM 13:30–16:00
The price is currently capped under yesterday’s VAH/PDH level. Bulls need to maintain levels above that zone to trigger the next upward movement. If we drop below, the previous POC/VAL will likely pull prices back in.
Premise
• Government 08:30 releases are unlikely; headline risk is lighter into the open.
• Primary scheduled risk is Fed Gov. Barr around 09:00 ET.
• Expect a cleaner auction: use our Level-KZ 15m→5m→1m sequence and prioritize first touches.
Tier-1 (A++) setups — Level-KZ Protocol
1. Short the cap at R2 (6,748.5–6,766.8)
Trigger: 15m rejection back inside → 5m re-close under → 1m LH pullback entry.
Stop: Above the 15m wick (+0.25–0.50).
Targets: TP1 6,712.5; TP2 6,695.5; TP3 6,651.0.
Management: At TP1 close 70%, runner to BE; seek TP2–TP3 during NY AM.
2. Break-and-hold long above PDH 6,766.8
Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,766.8 → 5m pullback holds → 1m HL entry.
Stop: Below trigger wick (−0.25–0.50).
Targets: TP1 6,790–6,805; TP2 6,828–6,832; TP3 6,872–6,893.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside 6,748.5.
Tier-2 / Tier-3 bounce plays (sized ¾ and ½)
Quick-reclaim bounce at S2/S3 (6,695–6,683): Fast sweep → instant reclaim on 5m → 1m HL entry.
Targets: TP1 6,712.5; TP2 6,741.0; TP3 6,766.8.
Hard stop: 15m wick through S3 (≤0.50). Gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R.
TRUMP TWEET: High Tariffs on china will NOT remain.I expect a deal with Xi to be announced at the APEC meeting
#ES
#STOCKS
#SPX
Condor in the Clouds: When the S&P 500 Takes a Nap1 – The Setup Nobody Expected
The S&P 500 just pulled a classic “I’m tired” move. After that big drop, it stopped running and started hovering between 6,437 and 6,873 — a cozy sideways zone filled with Fibonacci levels, Floor Trader Pivots, and UFOs (yep, UnFilled Orders, not flying saucers).
Markets do that sometimes — they sprint, then nap. And when they nap, option sellers quietly collect theta while everyone else wonders when the action will come back.
2 – The Play: Short Iron Condor
When the market’s stuck in the middle, the Short Iron Condor is like putting walls on both sides of the price. Here’s the idea — you get paid if ES stays in between.
How it’s built:
Sell a Call above resistance
Buy a Call a little higher (that’s your safety net)
Sell a Put below support
Buy a Put a little lower (another safety net)
Boom — now you’ve boxed the market. If it behaves, you earn. If it doesn’t, your risk is capped.
3 – Why It Works Right Now
The Condor thrives when volatility chills out. That’s exactly what ES is doing — taking a breath after chaos.
Theta decay: your invisible ally, eating away at option value day by day.
Range stability: resistance ≈ 6,873, support ≈ 6,437.
Low Vega: volatility tantrums matter less.
You don’t need fireworks — you need patience. This trade doesn’t scream, it hums.
4 – The Fine Print (a.k.a. Risk Management)
Keep it real:
Size positions by max risk, not by excitement level.
Don’t wait for expiration — grab 50–60% profit and fly away.
When the market is calm, the Condor glides. When storms build, fold your wings.
5 – For the Data Nerds
If you love precision:
ES tick = $12.50
MES tick = $1.25
Margins ≈ $21k and $2.1k respectively (subject to volatility).
And yes — theta doesn’t care which one you trade; it just wants time to pass.
6 – The Takeaway
Markets don’t always trend. Sometimes they just drift — and that’s okay.
In those moments, the Short Iron Condor turns boredom into strategy.
So, if the S&P 500 keeps “floating in the clouds,” don’t chase it — collect from it.
Want More Depth?
If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one:
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained
🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: ES Condor in the Clouds1 — The Market in a Cloud Layer
The S&P 500 (E-mini and Micro E-mini) futures have recently been caught in a curious atmospheric pattern — not of weather, but of price action. After a strong sell-off shook the market a few days ago, both Fibonacci extensions and retracement zones now cluster densely above and below the current price. When these are joined by multiple Floor Trader Pivot Points and Unfilled Order (UFO) zones sitting in similar regions, a clear message emerges: this market is potentially trapped in a range.
Resistance has been repeatedly observed near 6,873, while the lower boundary around 6,437 continues to attract buyers. The index seems to be trapped between Fibs — a typical post-volatility consolidation phase.
For traders who understand that sideways markets can be just as valuable as trending ones, this environment presents an opportunity. Instead of chasing direction, the goal becomes to capture time decay while staying within defined risk limits.
2 — The Strategy: Short Iron Condor Fundamentals
A Short Iron Condor combines two credit spreads:
A short call spread above current price
A short put spread below current price
Together, they create a “no-fly zone” for the underlying — a region where the trader earns maximum profit if price remains between the inner strikes.
This position benefits from:
Stable or neutral price movement
Time decay (theta)
Declining implied volatility
The Iron Condor offers defined risk and defined reward, making it a powerful candidate for range-bound markets like the current ES setup. While the maximum gain is limited to the net premium collected, the maximum loss is also capped, making this a risk-defined non-directional strategy.
Because this structure has both call and put spreads, it offers low Vega exposure — meaning it’s not overly sensitive to volatility shocks. For intermediate traders, this makes it a comfortable way to step beyond simple single-leg strategies and into the world of multi-leg, theta-driven structures.
3 — The Setup: Building the ES Condor
For this idea, we’re looking at the ES (E-mini S&P 500 Futures) options expiring on November 13.
The structure is built as follows:
Sell 6880 Call @ 34.43
Buy 6890 Call @ 31.69
Buy 6430 Put @ 55.32
Sell 6440 Put @ 57.07
This results in a net credit, generating the potential for a maximum profit of 4.49 points (per spread), while the maximum risk stands at -5.51 points. The reward-to-risk ratio comes to approximately 0.8:1, with a statistical win rate of 52.6% based on the current volatility surface, and the Breakeven points: 6,436 and 6,884.
As long as the ES price remains between these levels by expiration, the structure will achieve profitability. The Iron Condor works best when volatility remains stable or contracts — a condition currently supported by the post-drop equilibrium visible in implied volatility readings across near-term expirations.
4 — Chart Context: Technical Landscape Supporting the Range
The chart of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) reveals a tight compression zone forming between Fibonacci extensions and retracement levels above @ 0.618 (≈6,868) and below @ 0.618 (≈6,437). This overlap with Floor Trader Pivots — specifically R1 at 6,873 and S1 at 6,488 — paints a classic range structure. This setup can be the natural habitat for an Iron Condor.
While directional traders may feel frustrated by sideways movement, option sellers can see this as a period of controlled opportunity — where theta decay compensates for the market’s hesitation.
In other words, as long as ES continues to “hover in the clouds,” the Condor quietly collects premium.
5 — CME Product Specifications and Margins
Understanding the underlying contracts is essential when selecting between E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) and Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) for this options setup.
E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Futures
Tick Size: 0.25 = $12.50 per tick
Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours (Sunday–Friday, CME Globex)
Margin (approx.): $21,000 per contract
Micro E-mini S&P 500 (MES) Futures
Contract Size: 1/10 of ES
Tick Size: 0.25 = $1.25 per tick
Margin (approx.): $2,100 per contract
(Margins may vary slightly depending on volatility and broker policies.)
For smaller accounts or for traders looking to practice scaling and hedging, the MES provides a highly capital-efficient alternative to ES.
When executing the Short Iron Condor, traders may also consider margin offsets if the structure is risk-defined — a benefit when using portfolio margin accounts. However, margin usage will vary by broker and account type.
6 — Risk Management: Keeping the Condor in the Clouds
Every Iron Condor begins with a disciplined approach to risk.
Here’s how it can be managed:
Position Sizing: Determine exposure based on the maximum loss, not the credit received. For instance, risking 1–2% of account equity per structure keeps risk contained even during volatility spikes.
Exit Before Expiration: Avoid gamma risk in the final days. Closing the trade when 50–60% of the maximum profit is achieved can reduce time risk while locking in gains.
Adjustments: If price nears a breakeven zone (6,436 or 6,884), traders can consider rolling the threatened side further away or closing half of the position to reduce delta exposure.
Volatility Awareness: A volatility spike can temporarily pressure the mark-to-market value.
Because the Iron Condor is short Vega, it benefits from a calm or contracting volatility regime.
When markets are calm, this strategy works beautifully; when storms approach, it’s time to bring the Condor to the ground.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key-Zones, Week (Mon 10/13 → Fri 10/17)Macro drivers to watch (ET)
Powell (NABE) — Tue 10/14 ~12:20. Markets will parse tone on growth/inflation. (Fed official calendar confirms time & venue.)
PPI (Sep) — Thu 10/16 8:30. First major U.S. inflation print of the week. (BLS “Next Release”.)
Advance Retail Sales (Sep) — Thu 10/16 8:30. Key read on demand into holiday season. (Census “MARTS” note; FRED release calendar.)
CPI (Sep) — not this week; rescheduled to Fri 10/24 8:30 due to the shutdown. (BLS reschedule notice; CPI schedule.)
Earnings kick-off (could move ES): JPM Tue 10/14, BAC Wed 10/15. (Company IR pages/press.)
Market conditions: U.S. bond market closed Mon 10/13 (liquidity thinner); NYSE equities open. (SIFMA; NYSE hours.)
Options expiration: standard monthly Fri 10/17. Expect pinning flows. (Cboe 2025 calendar.)
Setups (Level-KZ Protocol — 15m→5m→1m; NY kill-zones preferred)
TIER-1 (A++) — Rejection Short at 6790–6810 (NY AM)
Trigger: 15m full-body fails to hold above 6790–6810 → 5m prints a lower-high and re-closes back inside → 1m first pullback “pop-and-fail”.
Entry: 6796–6803 on the 1m failure.
Invalidation: Hard SL above the 15m fail-wick (guide 6814).
TPs: TP1 6738–6745, TP2 6690–6700, TP3 6625–6635.
TIER-1 (A++) — Quick-Reclaim Long at 6550–6560 (Asia/London → carry to NY)
Trigger: Liquidity sweep into 6550–6560, immediate 15m re-close back above 6600, 5m holds ≥6620, 1m higher-low entry.
Entry: 6602–6610 on the first pullback that holds.
Invalidation: Hard SL below the 15m sweep-low (guide 6544).
TPs: TP1 6690–6700, TP2 6738–6745, TP3 6768–6775.
TIER-2 (A+ Bounce) — 6590–6596 fast reclaim
Trigger: Wick through 6590–96 that immediately reclaims ≥6620 on 5m.
Entry/SL: Enter 6615–6622; SL below sweep-low −0.5pt.
Targets: 6690 then 6738–45. ¾ size.
TIER-3 (A Bounce) — 6515–6525 exhaustion flush
Trigger: Capitulation into the 4H PWL band with 15m reversal signal.
Entry/SL: Scale inside the band; SL below the 15m reversal wick.
Targets: 6590–96 then 6690. ½ size; only first touch.
ES - Weekly Trading Plan - October 12th - 17thOctober 12th - 5:45pm
We had a great week, and Institutions continued to buy and keep price moving higher to our first weekly targets of 6807, 6813. On Friday, price looked like it was trying to go higher and then we got our first big "Trump Tweet" that gave Institutions an opportunity to sell! When we sell off like we did, it tells me that Institutions have been distributing heavily since FOMC in September. They had been building a nice base between 6741 - 6813 and with the right headline, it is time for them to sell. This level of selling, also shows you how leveraged retail traders were long, heading into this week!
I said last week that "we really need to hold the 6750 level, or we will need to pull back further for us to find liquidity to move higher. Ideally, we pull back to the 6720-25 level and then continue higher. IF, we lose the 6705 level, we will most likely need to retest last week's low at 6680-85."
I stated on my daily trade plan at 9:54am - Update
"Big sellers stepped in at 6807 level. Price really needs to hold 6790 lowest or this could be a false breakout, and we would continue lower down the levels. Bullish if price reclaims 6794."
Then on the 11:01am- Update
"Big sell off and not something you want to stand in the way of trying to pick a bottom. I mentioned that we needed to hold 6750 or we would see lower prices at 6729 first level, then 6705. The way the market just sold off, it will take a while for a base to build and shorts to get squeezed. I would be patient, and I may not trade again today. I will see how price does this afternoon."
My edge never gave me another opportunity for a trade the rest of Friday and honestly, anyone that said they went long on Friday, was gambling and, IF, profitable was lucky. IF, you truly watched price action it was running 10+pts up and down ranges so fast that it was very difficult trading conditions.
Let's talk about this week!
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I have tried to clean up the weekly chart to keep it as simple as possible since we lost some major levels and are down at early September levels. We did sell off in the after-hours even further down to around 6540. Any loss this evening of that level and reclaim of it in the overnight session, will be a good start for us to back test the levels higher. IF, this is just a regular buy the dip after a sell off, we should be able to reclaim 6740 and hold 6680 by end of the week. The strength over the next couple of weeks will really determine, IF, we can continue the bull run above 6813. We have not had 2 red weeks back-to-back since the April low. We have to take price day to day and week to week. Overall, we are still in a bullish trend and that really won't change until we lose 6300 level as first big warning sign. Until then, we need to expect a buy the dip regime to continue!
When ES sells off the way it did, we have a very high probability that a short squeeze is coming in the next day or so.
How do we ride with the institutions for the back test of the loss of the 6762-66 level?
We find good levels that we can enter at and ride price higher.
Key Support Levels - 6540, 6510, 6485, 6460, 6430, 6421, 6371
Key Resistance Levels - 6551, 6575, 6588, 6611, 6626, 6665, 6680, 6705, 6740
Ideally, we will start to build a base below 6540 overnight and then we can catch the reclaim of that level for a move higher. I could also see us lose 6540, flush down to 6510 or 6485, bounce to retest the 6540 level, come back down overnight, get everyone scared it's going to flush again and then provide a massive, short squeeze.
IF, price does reclaim 6540, the reclaim of 6575, 6588, 6611 are next 3 levels above that we can try and find some structure built at for a move up the levels.
I have no idea what price will do at the open and during the overnight session. I will post my Daily Trade Plan by 6am EST after the overnight session to get a sense for what levels we want to try, and grab points out of tomorrow.
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Purple Levels - Weekly High/Low
Green Levels - Weekly Targets
Yellow Levels - Daily Key Levels (See Daily Trade Plan)
White - Trendlines that may produce support/resistance alongside the horizontal trendlines
S&P 500 Testing Key Support: What Traders Need to Know About SupThe S&P 500 delivered a fascinating signal on Friday, one that technical traders should be paying close attention to.
The market's behavior at this critical juncture reveals important clues about the ongoing battle between supply and demand forces, and what we might expect in the coming sessions.
Friday's trading bar displayed two critical characteristics: a high-volume signature combined with a strong demand tail. This combination points to an attempt to bounce at a key support level, suggesting that buyers are stepping in aggressively. The entire price action pattern indicates a significant testing process is underway in the S&P 500.
The demand tail itself was substantial—approximately 75 S&P points.
That's a considerable move that demonstrates demand instantly producing an upward result on what was otherwise a down bar. When we see this kind of opposing force emerge during a decline, it creates the expectation of some kind of reaction higher.
Looking at comparable bar patterns as analogs, we can start to form expectations about what comes next. If we treat these formations as mirror analogs, there's a particular sequence worth noting.
Following the previous pattern, the next bar was a non-follow-through to the upside, which developed into a testing bar.
Now, we're expecting an up bar as a mirror image of that earlier pattern. However, volume behavior will be crucial here.
We know that volume needs to fall during this phase, and we're seeing more volume declining than in the previous comparable case. This volume characteristic suggests we should be expecting some kind of retest first before any sustained move higher.
The current structure is considerably more complex than simple pattern recognition might suggest.
We could see several different scenarios unfold:
First, there's the possibility of testing today's lows. If the market proves stronger than expected, we could simply continue the sequence of up bars without further downside testing. So far, demand is coming into the market and we're attempting to improve the technical picture.
The question remains: could we experience another down day? That possibility certainly exists, but the demand characteristics we've observed suggest buyers are becoming more aggressive at these support levels.
As tomorrow's session unfolds, traders should focus on volume patterns and price behavior relative to Friday's low. The interaction between supply and demand at this support level will determine whether we see a simple retest or a more complex consolidation pattern before the next directional move.
The key takeaway for S&P 500 traders is that we're in an active testing phase where demand has shown its hand with significant force. How supply responds to this demand will shape the market's near-term trajectory and provide valuable clues about the strength of this support level.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups For Fri (Oct 17)MACRO SCHEDULE (ET) — confirmed not impacted by shutdown
• NY AM: No confirmed 8:30 ET U.S. government releases (data blackout continues).
• 16:15 — Fed H.8 (weekly bank data) — after cash close; limited intraday impact.
BIAS:
• Short-term momentum is down; price sits in the lower half of this week’s range.
• Expect a liquidity probe lower in London, then a bounce attempt into NY AM if key demand holds.
SETUPS — Level-KZ Protocol (15m→5m→1m)
Tier-1 (A++) — Continuation SHORT from R1/R2
Trigger: 15m rejection back below 6,663–6,670 ➜ 5m re-close below with LH ➜ 1m first pullback fails.
Entry: 6,658–6,662.
SL: Above 15m trigger wick +0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6,604 (≥2.0R gate). TP2: 6,564. TP3: 6,520.
Tier-1 (A++) — Acceptance SHORT below S1
Trigger: 15m full-body close < 6,642 ➜ 5m pullback holds below ➜ 1m LH entry.
Entry: 6,638–6,641.
SL: Above 6,646 +0.25–0.50.
Targets: TP1 6,604; TP2 6,564; TP3 6,520. Management as above.
Tier-2 (A+ Bounce) — Quick-Reclaim LONG at S2
Trigger: Fast sweep below 6,604 with immediate 15m reclaim ➜ 5m hold/re-close above ➜ 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,605–6,609.
SL: 6,596–6,598 (15m wick low −0.25–0.50).
TP1: 6,663; TP2: 6,690–6,700. Size ¾.
Tier-3 (A Bounce) — Exhaustion LONG at S3
Trigger: Flush into 6,564 ±3 with capitulation wick and 15m momentum pivot ➜ 5m HL ➜ 1m trigger.
SL: Below 6,556–6,558.
TP1: 6,604; TP2: 6,663. Size ½.
INVALIDATION:
• Invalidate long bias if 15m accepts below 6,564 (two 15m bodies or one decisive close ≥1.5pt).
• Invalidate short bias if 15m accepts above 6,718 and holds.
• Max 2 attempts per level per session; stop trading at −2R net or after +3R net.
NEWS / HEADLINE NOTES
With government data paused, price will be more technically driven. Fed headlines can spark brief moves; prioritize level reactions over narrative.
Earnings/gamma flows may add noise near R1 (6,663–6,670) and R2 (6,710–6,718).
S&P 500 E-mini Inside Day: Consolidation Before Next Big MoveToday’s price action formed a classic inside day on the 30-minute chart, signaling market indecision and a potential buildup before a significant breakout or breakdown. Watch key volume profile levels and Fibonacci retracements for clues on the next directional move. Market breadth remains mixed, so confirmation on a break of the inside day range will be crucial for trading decisions.
S&P 500 E-mini: Approaching Key Resistance Zone with Bullish MomThe S&P 500 E-mini is showing signs of recovery with price approaching a significant resistance zone near 6,800. The 4-hour MACD indicates growing bullish momentum, while the 30-minute chart suggests a potential push toward the resistance area. Traders should watch for a breakout above this level to confirm continuation or a rejection that could signal a pullback.
NQ & ES Premarket Comment Thursday 16-10-2025Good morning everyone.
Today, we are trading within a Premium Zone, which indicates that any long opportunities should ideally emerge only after a retracement into one of the blue-marked demand areas highlighted on the chart.
The daily bias remains bullish, but given that price is currently positioned near the upper range, we may look for short-term countertrend setups, with the first blue zone serving as a potential short-term downside target.
Possible scenarios:
Scenario A: Price retraces to the first blue zone, where we’ll monitor for bullish confirmation signals to establish long positions.
Scenario B: Price extends deeper into the second blue zone, offering a more favorable long entry.
If neither scenario materializes, we’ll remain on the sidelines — patience and selectivity are key.
It’s important to approach short setups with caution. Trading against the dominant trend requires experience, precise execution, and algorithmic-level accuracy. Even in that case, risk should remain limited, as countertrend positions inherently carry higher exposure.
As the market opens, we’ll closely monitor the initial price action. Once volatility stabilizes and provided that price evolves in line with our outlined scenarios, the market structure will become clearer, giving us a defined framework for execution.
Avoid placing blind Buy Limit orders at the marked support levels. Instead, wait for clear confirmation of support and a shift in momentum before engaging.
The primary upside target for long setups remains yesterday’s high, followed by the all-time highs of the corresponding indices, should bullish momentum extend further.
Each session is an opportunity to sharpen our discipline, patience, and market awareness. Sit calmly in front of your charts, observe price action, learn from its behavior, and let the market guide you. If the anticipated setup does not unfold, treat that as valuable screen time rather than a missed opportunity.
Wishing everyone a focused and disciplined trading day — we’ll revisit and update our outlook in the afternoon commentary.
It doesn’t matter if price initially runs above the previous day’s high (PDH) — we still need price to retrace back into the predefined zones before considering any long entries. Wait for structure, not impulse.
PF
