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S&P Futures Trading Day 77 — Locking Gains in a Scary MarketEnded the day +$247.39 trading S&P Futures. I came into the session with a bullish bias thanks to the market structure, and initially, things looked great as I caught a nice move breaking over the 1-minute MOB. However, the market had some tricks up its sleeve—I got stop-hunted trying to play the breakout zone at 6828, giving back some profits. I didn't let that rattle me, though; I went long again at support off the 11:10 signal, made the money back, and hit my ~$250 goal. With how "scary" and fragile everything feels lately, I decided to just lock in the smaller gains and call it a day. 📰 News Highlights *BITCOIN TUMBLES 5% TO $86K AMID CRYPTO SELLOFF 🔔 VX Algo Signals 9:00 AM — MES Market Structure flipped bullish (X3) ✅ 11:10 AM — VXAlgo NQ X1DP Buy Signal ✅ 2 out of 2 signals worked — 100% accuracy today. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6830 = Bullish Below 6800 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
ES (SPX, SPY) Deep Analyses for Upcoming Week (Dec 1st - 5th)Multi-Timeframe Market Structure Analysis Weekly Trend Overview The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) continues to reflect a robust bullish trend on the weekly chart, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The most recent swing low is situated in the mid-6,500s, while prices are currently testing the previous weekly high zone around the high-6,800s, accompanied by a labeled weak high band overhead. In terms of market positioning, prices reside firmly in the upper half of the annual range, trading within a premium supply band rather than at a discount. Momentum indicators are showing signs of a slowdown, with the weekly oscillator retreating from overbought conditions and gently sloping downward, even as prices hold near their highs. This situation exemplifies early-stage negative momentum divergence, suggesting that while the overarching trend remains intact, any upside progress is now slower and increasingly susceptible to pullbacks. The structural bull market on the weekly timeframe is still valid, but the current price action falls into a costly zone, placing the onus on buyers to maintain upward momentum. Daily Trend Analysis Following a notable decline in November from the all-time high, ES established a higher low around the mid-6,500s, coinciding with a key extension bundle. Subsequently, it rebounded through the mid-6,700s, successfully reclaiming the essential daily midrange. The latest price action reflects a sequence of lower lows (LL), higher lows (HL), and a higher high, signaling a short-term bullish trend within a broader sideways pattern just beneath the recent highs. The active daily range is delineated between 6,650 and 6,900, with current trading situated in the upper third. The daily momentum oscillator has sharply ascended from oversold territory and sits comfortably in the 60s—nearing overbought conditions but not quite there yet. The daily trend indicates an uptrend initiated from a higher low, now testing resistance levels. Trend-following participants are positioned long, though late entrants may find themselves crowded near the upper edge of the trading range. Four-Hour Structural Insights The 4-hour chart reveals a strong reversal from a low around 6,525, where price structure has formed a clean stair-step of higher highs and higher lows. The latest 4-hour higher low rests in the high-6,700s. The recent impulse leg from this higher low has driven prices into the prior week's high and supply band near the high-6,800s. Observations indicate that candles are narrowing while wicks are extending, typically signaling an impending maturation of the current price leg. While this remains largely an impulse move rather than a complete correction, the risk-to-reward ratio for entering fresh long positions at these levels appears unfavorable without a corrective pullback. The 4-hour trend is decidedly bullish, yet this leg is maturing. A retracement toward the last observed higher low band in the high-6,700s would be both typical and healthy for the ongoing progression. One-Hour Intraday Context The 1-hour chart indicates a prolonged consolidation phase in the low-to-mid-6,800s, succeeded by a breakout thrust toward the prior week’s high. Recent micro-structural developments show small higher highs with diminished follow-through into the resistance zone. The emergence of upper wicks on the 1-hour candles suggests we're in the later stages of this move which originated from Friday’s New York low. For intraday traders, entering new positions at this stage carries poor asymmetry. Strategies may involve either capitalizing on a potential exhaustion spike higher or considering buys only after a reset lower. The intraday price leg is nearing maturity; anticipate either a minor mean reversion back into the breakout base or a final overshoot into the overhead extension band, followed by a more substantial pause. Oscillator Insights on Weekly and Daily Timeframes On the weekly front, the oscillator is rolling over from overbought levels, keeping prices near previous highs. While this in itself does not constitute a sell signal, it does imply that any additional advances will likely become increasingly challenging and volatile. Conversely, the daily oscillator remains robust, exhibiting positive momentum and trending upwards, although already sitting at mid-to-high levels. While there remains potential for one more uptick toward resistance, the risk of a sharp downturn looms larger should market news or flows fail to meet expectations. Bottom Line: The primary timeframe indicators (weekly/daily) maintain a bullish outlook, while the active swings on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are showing maturity and extension into resistance. The upcoming trading week will likely focus on navigating this late-stage upswing, either through fading exhaustion at the range's peak or by purchasing on controlled dips into well-defined demand zones. Market Overview: Key Levels and Dynamics Trend Boundary Analysis: 6,780 Area The pivotal threshold for discerning between a healthy pullback and a significant trend reversal lies around the 6,780 mark. A sustained daily close below this level—specifically under S2 and near the last daily higher low—would signal a transition from what appears to be a “healthy pullback in an uptrend” to a more pronounced “daily correction.” In contrast, remaining above 6,780 allows for the interpretation of pullbacks as buyable dips into existing demand. However, should the market close below this threshold with consistent acceptance evidenced by multiple 4-hour closes and significant volume, the prevailing sentiment would shift towards anticipating a larger trading range or an early trend change. Volatility Metrics Overview The volatility index (VIX) closed at approximately 16.35 on Friday, a considerable drop from the mid-20s earlier in the month, indicating a low-to-moderate equity volatility regime. The options market appears relaxed rather than panicked. The VIX term structure has returned to contango, with the front month trading cheaper than the back month, supporting a risk-on environment without veering into euphoria. On the treasury front, the MOVE index remains elevated at around 69, having retreated from mid-80s spikes earlier in November, signaling that rate volatility has cooled yet remains high compared to pre-2022 standards. The recent readings suggest that the fear that overshadowed the mid-month selloff has largely been priced out. Both equity and rate volatility have begun to mean-revert, typically favoring range trading and a more orderly trend rather than severe sell-offs. However, it’s important to note that the current state makes protective measures inexpensive, hinting that abrupt corrections could emerge unexpectedly. Options Positioning Dynamics The total put/call ratio is hovering around 0.70 for the latest session, suggesting a slight tilt towards puts relative to longer-term averages. The equity put/call ratio stands at about 0.44, indicating a bullish, call-heavy sentiment among traders, predominantly in single-name options. The 10-day moving average of the put/call ratio is roughly 0.92, slightly below neutral, indicating some short-term complacency, although not excessively stretched. The SKEW index has stabilized around 143, down from the 160s a year ago but still above the traditional baseline of 120-130. This points to an inclination for tail hedging that is present but not extreme. Given the mid-teen VIX levels and a neutral total put/call ratio combined with a low equity put/call ratio, it is reasonable to deduce that dealers are likely not heavily short gamma at current spots. They may be positioned closer to long or flat gamma within the 6,750-6,900 range, which generally dampens intraday volatility and suggests a tendency toward mean-reversion. Conversely, movement outside this band—specifically above 6,950 or below 6,730—could alter the gamma positioning and pave the way for more significant directional shifts. Market Breadth and Internal Strength The S&P 500 concluded the week with a modest 0.5% gain on Friday, reflecting small gains throughout the month, while the Nasdaq faced a 1.5% decline, primarily driven by weakness in large technology stocks. The S&P 500 remains above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, having reclaimed the 50-day line last week after an earlier dip, suggesting renewed market participation beyond just a few mega-cap stocks. Sector performance varied notably, with technology facing headwinds throughout November—most notably from AI-linked companies—while sectors such as energy, consumer cyclicals, and certain areas of healthcare and financials saw positive movements towards month-end. Despite an earlier warning from indicators like the McClellan Oscillator suggesting internal weaknesses, the recent rebound has begun to improve breadth. However, concerns linger that this rally might be more fragile than typical broad-based advances, given its rotational and choppy nature. Credit and Funding Landscape The high-yield index (HYG) hovers around 81, near recent highs, indicating generally favorable credit conditions as it has progressively climbed through November. High-yield spreads are tightening relative to recent standards, reinforcing a “risk-on” attitude within credit markets. There are no apparent signs of acute funding stress; previous operational disruptions in futures markets were not indicative of systemic issues. Currently, credit markets are not signaling alarms. As long as HYG remains above approximately 79, equity dips are more likely to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than triggers for widespread liquidation. Sentiment and Investor Positioning In the latest AAII survey, the bull-bear spread stands at around -11%, indicating a modest bearish sentiment, with bears outnumbering bulls by approximately 11 percentage points—below the historical mean of +6%. Conversely, the low equity put/call ratio suggests that traders are actively pursuing upside positions in individual equities. In summary, while survey data points to cautious investor sentiment, options markets illustrate a preference for call buying and a diminishment of fear. This dichotomy often results in uneven uptrends with the potential for sudden pullbacks when complacency is inevitably challenged. Global Risk Sentiment and Cross-Asset Overview In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin has stabilized around 90-91k following a significant correction earlier in the month, with modest recovery observed in the past week. This development underscores a risk-on atmosphere among investors. Macro and data-calendar context • The coming week (Dec 1–5) is busy but not as pivotal as the mid-December CPI/Payrolls • Key events: • Monday: ISM Manufacturing and construction spending. • Tuesday: JOLTS job openings. • Wednesday: ADP employment and ISM Services, plus several PMI and industrial-production figures. • Thursday: Challenger job cuts, weekly jobless claims, and trade balance. • Friday: Critically, the delayed PCE and core PCE inflation data for September, pushed back by the recent government shutdown. • Fed communication: The Fed is effectively entering its pre-meeting quiet period; Powell’s upcoming speech is one of the last major remarks before the December meeting. Macro narrative: Markets are leaning heavily toward another Fed rate cut in December and a benign inflation path.  Given that, negative surprises in PCE or labor data could trigger a sharp repricing. The late-November rally appears to be a recalibration of positioning and sentiment following a mid-month scare within the tech sector, rather than a direct response to any significant data shock. This week's major macroeconomic event is Friday's PCE report; other data releases are expected to influence intraday fluctuations rather than alter the overarching trend. Scenario Analysis and Probabilities These scenarios represent probabilistic outcomes rather than certainties. Primary Path — “Controlled Grind with Dip-Buying” (Approximately 50%) As we enter Monday, expect a modest pullback from Friday's late gains, with overnight Globex trading projected to fluctuate between 6,820 and 6,880. Early in the week, the market may test support levels S1 (6,830–6,840) or potentially S2 (6,790–6,805), ultimately leading to renewed attempts to breach resistance at R1 and possibly R2. By the week’s end, prices are anticipated to oscillate within a broad range of 6,790–6,930 ahead of Friday's PCE announcement, with only temporary moves outside this zone. Confirmation Criteria: This path will be validated if we observe rejections below the 6,780 level holding firm on a closing basis, accompanied by repeated failures of sellers to maintain downward pressure beneath S2. Bear-Extension Path — “Deeper Reset Before Year-End” (Approximately 30%) This scenario is triggered by a failed breakout above R1/R2 early in the week, coupled with a significant intraday reversal and a decisive 4-hour close beneath S2 and potentially S3. Initial price action may feature a spike into the 6,910–6,930 range followed by swift sell-offs, leading to a rapid retreat back through S1 and S2, particularly if the PCE data comes in above expectations or labor statistics surprise on the upside, prompting a re-assessment of potential Fed rate cuts. Target Area: The initial aim would be the 6,650–6,700 region (near S4), with the possibility of a complete reversal down toward the more robust 6,620–6,650 band. Confirmation Criteria: Continuous acceptance below approximately 6,730 on a 4-hour basis, combined with a daily close under the 6,780 threshold, would indicate a return to the narrative of a higher low for November. Bull-Surprise Path — “Breakaway Into New Highs” (Approximately 20%) This scenario is set in motion by a clear 4-hour and subsequent daily close above R2 and R3, driven by exceptionally benign PCE numbers and a supportive stance from the Federal Reserve. Initial price action should reflect minimal pullback in the early part of the week, steadily climbing past R1 and R2, ultimately resulting in a trend day that aggressively squeezes shorts above the 6,950 mark. Target Area: The market will likely gravitate toward the extension zone of 7,050–7,100. Confirmation Criteria: Sustained trading above 6,930 without significant reversals, robust market breadth, and a VIX that remains comfortably anchored in the mid-teens or lower will serve as key indicators for this bullish outlook. Two A++ setups for the week A++ Setup 1: Rejection short from R2 Fade spike into 6,910-6,930; Entries, SL, TPs Entry zone: 6,890–6,900 on the first clean 1-minute pullback after the 5-minute lower high. Initial stop: Above the rejection high plus a small buffer; planning number ~6,935. That is about 35-45 points of risk if filled near 6,895-6,900; refine to the actual 15-minute wick when it forms. TP1: 6,830-6,840 (S1 / breakout base). From a 6,895 entry, that is roughly 55–65 points, giving at least 1.3-1.5R with the conservative stop and significantly more if the wick is tighter. TP2: 6,790-6,805 (S2 demand pocket). TP3 (runner): 6,730-6,750 (S3), only if tape is heavy (e.g., PCE or data shock). A++ Setup 2: Continuation long from S2 ES Long (A++) - Buy reclaim of 6,790–6,805; Entries, SL, TPs Entry zone: 6,805-6,815 on the first 1-minute higher-low after the 5-minute confirmation. Initial stop: A few points below the spike low; planning number ~6,780, which gives about 25–35 points of risk. TP1: 6,870-6,885 (R1 / prior week high band). From a 6,810 entry, that is roughly 60–75 points, delivering comfortably more than 2R with the planned stop. TP2: 6,910-6,930 (R2 extension band). TP3 (runner): 6,950-6,980 (R3 / upper weekly supply) if PCE and flows are supportive. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
AI Stocks Started Sneezing… and Indices May Have Caught a Chill?The NASDAQ (a.k.a. the AI theme park) just printed a much lower monthly low. ES? It dipped… but only politely. That mismatch matters. When tech acts tired, the broader market usually needs caffeine — or a correction. The Indicators Are Whispering… and They Don’t Sound Bullish The CCI is saying “lower highs,” while price is saying “higher highs.” Classic divergence. The MACD histogram is fading like holiday lights at 4 a.m. Momentum? Not dead — just yawning. Three Levels That Could Decide Whether Santa Shows Up Think of December like a video game boss fight with three phases: 6,525.00 → First alarm bell. Break it and the mood changes. 6,239.50 → “Bear trap danger zone.” Plenty could happen here. 4,430.50 → The deep level nobody wants to talk about, but everyone should mark. If ES finds its footing near 6,239.50, Santa still has a shot. If not… well… Grinch season might come early. ES & MES Contract Specs + Margins E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) Tick size: 0.25 index points = $12.50 Approx. margin (as of now): ~$22,400 per contract Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) Tick size: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Approx. margin (as of now): ~$2,240 per contract Margins vary by broker and can change with volatility, but these figures reflect current exchange-level requirements. Risk Management: The Only Real Holiday Magic ES and MES give traders the same view of the market but with different intensity levels. December is emotional, fast, and occasionally rude — so size positions like someone who wants to enjoy the holidays, not stress through them. Pick a zone → define the invalidation level → cap your dollar risk → choose ES or MES accordingly. Simple. Calm. Holiday-friendly. Final Thought Santa hasn’t canceled the rally yet. But AI stocks aren’t exactly singing Christmas carols either. If the tech giants recover, December could still sparkle. If they don’t… the sleigh might need a repair shop. Either way: chart levels > seasonal hope. Trade safe — and maybe hide a cookie for the market, just in case. Want More Depth? If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one: 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained 🔗 From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traddictiv
S&P 500 (ES1!): Bullish! Look For Valid Buys!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast or the week of Dec. 1-5th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P500 rallied last week, closing strong! Look for follow through going into this week. Go with the overall bullish trend until there is a bearish market structure break. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much. Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by RT_Money
ES | Week 49 | 1hr chartLots of support levels being created. T.A explained - BackSide (BS) FrontSide (FS) Inverse BS (Inv.BS) Inverse FS (Inv.FS) BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by StudyGuideTA
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Tue (Dec 2nd)The market structure remains optimistic on the higher timeframes, bolstered by a significant rebound from the 6,520 levels. Currently, prices are fluctuating in the upper range of this move, consolidating between the intraday support and the previous weekly high. Although momentum indicators are stretched, they have yet to indicate a reversal, suggesting a potential continuation toward resistance levels R1 and possibly R2, provided that buyers can uphold the nearest support zones. Conversely, a failure to maintain support at S1 and S2 could pave the way for a deeper corrective phase targeting S3. The levels are remain the same from yesterday analysis. A++ SETUP 1 - LONG FROM S2 RELOAD BAND (6,790-6,805) look for an overnight or early NY flush into 6,800 ± 10 points, followed by a strong rejection: wick below S2 on 15m, close back inside the band, plus a higher low on 5m. Entry zone: 6,800-6,795 (inside S2 once rejection shows). Hard stop: 6,780 (below the lower edge of S2 and recent wick structure). TP1: 6,845-6,855 (back through S1 into the middle of the current range). TP2: 6,870-6,885 (R1 test). A++ SETUP 2 - SHORT LIQUIDITY SWEEP INTO R1 (6,870-6,885) during London or NY AM, price spikes through 6,870 into the 6,870-6,885 band, takes out prior highs, but then prints a rejection: 15m candle with an upper wick and close back below about 6,875, plus a lower high on 5m. Entry zone: 6,875-6,880 after the rejection is confirmed, not on the first blind touch. Hard stop: 6,895 (above the top of R1; acceptance above there suggests a push toward R2). TP1: 6,835-6,840 (back into S1). TP2: 6,800-6,795 (retest of S2). Key Events and Data to Watch on Tuesday Tomorrow's U.S. session will be pivotal, focusing on key indicators of manufacturing and construction. The final S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed closely by the ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET—both crucial for assessing factory activity and the momentum of economic growth. Concurrently, the Commerce Department will unveil October Construction Spending figures, a vital metric for understanding demand in infrastructure and housing sectors. Additionally, domestic vehicle sales data will be published, providing further insight into consumer strength. Moreover, the OECD's latest Economic Outlook will present updated global growth projections, which could significantly influence market risk appetite. As markets remain attuned to indicators of decelerating economic activity, any surprises in these reports could lead to notable shifts between support levels (S2) and resistance levels (R1/R2), potentially reinforcing expectations for a rate cut from the Fed in December.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Monthly ES Futures Outlook – DecemberHappy Thanksgiving! This is the second post in my series of monthly outlooks for ES futures. The first one, published in mid-October, covered the remainder of October and the outlook for November. Since the end of October, price had been moving inside a downward-expanding falling wedge channel. On Friday, 28 November, ES finally broke out with a strong bullish daily close above the structure—although on lower volume due to the Thanksgiving week. From here, two primary scenarios can unfold: ________________________________________ Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Toward 6895+ Price remains bullish by successfully retesting the 4-hour 200 SMA (~6780) and advancing toward the next major supply zone around 6895. A few confluences support this scenario: • The 200 SMA aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 21 November low to the current swing high. • This area also overlaps with the zone where the 10 October sell-off originated. If this zone holds on the retest, ES could potentially push to new all-time highs by month-end, with intermediate upside targets at: • 6894 • 6953 • 7000 ________________________________________ Scenario 2: Rejection From 6890s Supply Zone Price fails to break through the 6890s supply, rejects sharply, and continues lower—forming a third lower high below 6900. Key downside levels under this scenario include: • 6760 • 6674 • 6614 The major demand zone to watch is 6432 (the 7.5% correction level), which served as a strong bounce area multiple times in August and September. ________________________________________ Probability Tilt: Slight Edge to Scenario 1 From a probability standpoint, Scenario 1 currently has a slightly higher chance of playing out. Reasons: • Price is trading above all three short-term EMAs: 9, 21, and 50. • The 9 EMA is about to cross above the 21 EMA, a setup that historically leads more often to sideways consolidation followed by continuation to the upside, rather than a breakdown. ________________________________________ Institutional Buying Zones: Impact of % Corrections When ES hits a new ATH and begins to retrace, certain correction percentages tend to attract institutional bids. These are typically: • 5% • 7.5% • 10% The current ATH is 6953.75, giving the following key correction levels: • 5% correction: 6606 • 7.5% correction: 6432 • 10% correction: 6258 Recent examples support this pattern: • The latest ATH (30 October) saw a 5% correction on 18 November, which led to a rally to 6790—about a 190-point bounce before the 20 November sell-off. • The August 2024 low was roughly a 10% pullback from that era’s ATH. • The December 2024 sell-off following the Fed meeting was roughly a 5% correction. If Scenario 2 plays out, I will be watching 6432 very closely, given the confluence of the 7.5% correction and a historically strong demand zone. ________________________________________ ATR & Volatility Outlook: For the past 9 consecutive weeks, the weekly ATR has exceeded 200 points, meaning ES has moved 200+ points on average per week. Given that price rallied 300+ points from the 21 November low of 6525 within a single week, a period of consolidation next week is likely. Volatility should return during the second week of December due to: • FOMC interest rate decision — 10 December • CPI data — 11 December Given this macro calendar, I expect either a new ATH or a move toward 6674 within the next two weeks. Hope this analysis helps. Open to feedback, discussion, and improvements. Happy trading.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by chirag0412
OB + RSI + MSS = WIN CME_MINI:MES1! Today, I will present a large part of my strategy using three excellent example trades. It consists of various (SMC) concepts that I have combined. Entry: First, I look for an OB, BB, hidden divergence or liquidity sweep on the 1-hour chart. Then I go to the 15-minute and 5-minute TF and look for further RSI divergences, SMT divergences or OBs as confirmation and wait for an MSS. (Important for hidden divergence: only enter after confirmation and leaving the divergence zone) Take profit: I set my take profit depending on the situation. Either just before a liquidity pool or on the Fibonacci extension zone 1 or just before zone 1.618. Stop loss: I set my stop loss just behind the OB or the candles of the RSI divergence zone, whereby I must achieve a CRV of at least 3 for each trade. Feel free to give me feedback on my system and ask me questions! Shoutouts to @Sirc255 through who I came upon RSI!
CME_MINI:MES1!
by MaxSFT
2
SPY: The Final Capitulation Before the Blow OffThe S&P 500 has experienced notably choppy price action over the past 60 days following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. Many large-cap stocks most notably Nvidia, which saw a substantial rally have provided attractive profit-taking opportunities. Since then, the broader market has been trading sideways and, more specifically, within a local downtrend over the last 30 days. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this pullback may be unfolding as a complex WXY corrective structure. A WXY pattern is essentially a series of connected ABC corrections each consisting of a three-wave “measured moves" that collectively form a more drawn-out and often more intricate consolidation phase. These moves can be mathematically projected using fibonacci. The purpose of such a correction is typically to cool off the market after an extended rally. This cooling phase can manifest as a meaningful price decline, a time-based consolidation, or a combination of both. Ultimately, it allows market sentiment to reset and establishes a balanced range from which a stronger, more sustainable breakout can occur. The main point of uncertainty lies in whether the W wave has been correctly identified. The subsequent X wave appears to form an expanding flat structure composed of three waves, ending with an impulsive move that taps the 1.618 extension—aligning well with typical Fibonacci market mathematics. If a final Y-wave leg lower is still ahead, we have a clearly defined 1% invalidation level. Below that, a deeper sweep of the previous low becomes possible, allowing us to draw a trend-based Fibonacci extension from the W and X pivots to project a potential termination point for wave Y. I’ll be closely monitoring this lower region, as it could present an excellent buying opportunity—one that could position the market for significantly higher upside targets and, at minimum, a retest or sweep of the current all-time highs.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by afurs1
ES1 - Tame Black Friday or Dump IncomingUS Black Friday is known as quite a tame day with shorter hours... But its worth noting that S&P Futures has reached the retracement Golden Window - an area where corrective action often peaks. And its slightly above a significant resistance - in the higher liquidity zone. So this is setting up for a potential Head & Shoulders Pattern. When I refer to an H&S I do not at all consider that we can use it to judge downside - that theory is a nonsense in my opinion. But it is a pattern that may lead to a pull back. For now there is no price action to suggest a slump, but lets watch out for it because this is an ideal area for one if this move up proves to be exhausted. If it does slump then high octane positions may be affected and there may be dips buys, but very deep buys may have relative buoyancy and hold. This is a neutral post for now - we'll see how it develops 🧐. This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dRends35