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ES - December 12th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 12th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:30am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We have had a great week and while trend points to price continuing to move higher, after we have a nice move like we did yesterday, price can chop around for a day or two before continuing higher. Yesterday's overnight low was 6817 with 6830 being the big base that took us higher. 6862 was a key pivot area yesterday as moved over 100+pts on the day. Since we finished at highs of the day and we gapped down overnight with the overnight high being 6915 and the overnight low is 6892. We will not have any of our highest quality levels unless we sell off below 6862. As I type this plan, we are currently attempting to reclaim the 6902 level, which has an overnight resistance shelf and a bull flag that looks to be building. Ideally, we can flush 6892 (possibly down to 6885) or lose 6902 and reclaim to take us higher. Below 6885 and we will need to see price hold 6872 with 6862 being the lowest to keep us moving higher. I do think we can close the gap from the overnight session and give 6925-29 another attempt today. I will patiently wait until the 9:30am open and see what price does in the first 5-10 mins. If price flushes and reclaims 6892 prior to the open, then I will take that level to level move. Outside of that I expect us to chop around in this range until price finds direction after the open. Key Levels - 1. 6892 Flush and reclaim (Maybe as low as 6885) 2. 6885 Flush and reclaim (Maybe as low as 6872) 3. 6872 Flush and reclaim (Maybe as low as 6862) I hate trading when price is close to highs and with no high-quality levels close to price. I will size down and use the levels that price gives but will be taking profits quickly at each level above. For any new followers, that would mean that I would enter a position, sell 1/2 or 3/4 of that position at the next level up and then leave a runner to catch a couple of more levels higher. Example - We lose 6892 down to 6885-87, I will then enter on the reclaim of 6892 and sell 3/4 at 6902 and leave a runner. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
ES finishing a distribution schematic here?Seems to be rolling over on a distribution schematic. Right now the value appears to be in Dividend names like some of which I shared on my profile ( NYSE:NKE for example). Amongst others I'm eying are NYSE:SWK NYSE:NVO and $NESN. Nasdaq seems to be rolling over, and so do a couple of big tech names like NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:GOOG hitting a 1.618 extension. Meanwhile small caps are shooting up. And so it looks like we are entering or at least nearing a final phase before a steeper correction.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Martechnic
ES - December 11th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 11th- Daily Trade Plan - 6:45am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We had an explosive Fed afternoon but ultimately have still not broken out of the range we have been for weeks. Overnight we lost nearly 100pts and I said on my late day note that price "should not lose 6885 if this is going to move higher in the overnight session". We started moving lower at the open and found a bottom at 10pm around 6817. Remember yesterday's low was 6830 and since we bounced at 6817, we built a very nice flag between 6828-6840 range. This finally broke out after the European open and is currently building another flag between 6848-6857 as I type this post. We should clear these 6857 levels and continue to back test up the levels with 6872 being a major resistance. One key point I want to make is that the reason I typically only have 3-4 key levels to trade is because those are the levels that institutions are buying and everything in-between is noise. If you are unable to be patient for the key levels, you will lose more than you win. 6830 was yesterday's low and just like our session yesterday we got 3-4 opportunities at the 6834 level that produced some nice bounces and finally a nice move to test the 6904 top of the range. Overnight the reclaim of yesterday's low was 6830 and we held that level building a nice base for hours. This shows you the power of the key levels I have identified. 6818 was the first big level down and we bounced right at it and then reclaimed the daily low from yesterday. You can look at my chart from yesterday and see the levels and how they have been respected for over 24hrs. You can probably even look at Mondays post and see the exact same levels being respected. This is not guessing, it is understanding where institutions buy and where you need to be focused on getting points. Not all levels are the same! Focus on the Key Levels and save your capital from losing by trading between the levels! We are currently still in an active failed breakdown with the reclaim of 6830 earlier this am. This targets price to continue up the levels with us most likely retesting 6872. If we do not get a retest of 6830, we might be able to get a flush of 6848 and a reclaim there. Outside of this I would focus on the key levels below. Key Level Today - 1. 6848 Flush and Reclaim (Lower Quality) 2. 6830 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 3. 6817 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 4. 6801 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) 5. 6790 Flush and Reclaim (High Quality) IF price does flush lower, I would be patient and let price build a base at or below one of the key levels and wait for price to show that it wants to hold above that level. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = A previous day low (Day before or day in the past week) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post) White = Key Support/Resistance Levels
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
2
#ES_F Daily TF Longer Outlook UpdateBack in October we broke down Daily Outlook after we had topping signals and strong trend break. When that was posted we were looking to two possibilities after the trend was broken, we either needed to get back under Smaller MA without reaching the top to show no acceptance in New Range to then proceed with trend change and a slower correction or stay above Smaller MA to push for higher VAH/Edge areas to make this our range for some time and possibly balance between VAH/VAL with pushes out of them finding their way back in. What ended up happening is we got a push back into MA but closed over it and more buying came in to push and gap us over VAH into Range Top, of course we had no way of knowing that Range Edge would be the top but we pushed into it and showed clear topping/rejection from it. This time Edge Top rejection was much stronger and got us back under VAH/Smaller MA, flushed VAL with Medium MA which again provided Temp Support and as mentioned we got that balancing action between VAL / VAH with pushes out rotating back in until we broke/closed under Medium MA and got more selling which took us under Range Edge Low, flushed Previous Range VAH and Large MA but as that was first tag of big MA after spending quite some time away it naturally provided buying to get us back in New Range which we showed acceptance in by Previously Tagging the Top which meant once price is back in, it doesn't need much big buying as it just wants to rotate back towards Supply which so happens to be at/over VAH. Where can we go from here ? The flush under Edge Low temporarily changed Medium Trend into correction but the bounce didn't let us stay in correction and instead we go that rotation into Supply and are now technically again in Up Trend over MAs. Yes we can stay in up trend and continue with sideways/strength/inside days that will keep us up Over/Around VAH while we let Smaller/Medium MAs catch up and continue pushing us towards Edge Top and maybe even push us into New Range Above. But few things we have to consider... We are at the top of Big Big area (under new price level of 7000), We had a huge run this year, We have showed multiple Topping Patterns here around 6800 - 6900 +/- Areas, We have showed good trend breaks and attempts at trend change, We are back in area of Supply where bigger failures/sellers have came in, We are extended from Medium and Small MAs which provide support in New/Untested areas and this time we are extended away into Supply Area not New area. With all that in mind will we have strong buyers who will come in here and start buying the extension inside Supply ? Or was this extension all momentum buyers who aren't planning to hold us up. My current bias is if we look at Cost Basis break out area up to our Top, then the Flush to Large MA and back up, to me it looks like one side of a bigger M topping pattern which happens at bigger tops. If that is the case then either Friday or somewhere close we should be marking our Lower High and if buyers from Last Week will not hold this then price will want to head back towards some sort of Support which would be Smaller MA as the first spot which means back under VAH. Something to be careful of is that since now VIX is down, Volume will be down as well with holidays coming which means even if we start moving down it might be more of the same way we got up here last week which was more of Slower Balance(Back and Forth) Up days. Way down could be similar with slower balance down days. From there Smaller MA and areas under it can Provide Support and keep us in some sort of sideways action around it BUT as long as we keep holding under VAH 860s - and under Edge Top 920s then that will mean Weakness, we would look for a move under VAH that can stay under it even if it consolidates around, then into Mean where Medium MA should be by the time we get there, of course it could happen fast as well but have this feeling that it might be a drag this time around IF it happens. We already have a week of fresh Supply up here from Last Week and if we again get under Smaller MA and can again change trend under Medium MA then that will bring in more weakness to continue for lower targets back towards VAL which could also provide holds BUT if trend stays in correction and we are to follow through with the M pattern then we will eventually see a move back under Range Edge Low and aim to take out the low we made on the last Flush Nov 21st which would be the M middle which could give us more weakness to take us towards our Correction Areas lower into the Cost Basis. Again if market has topped out and all the large selling for now is done, if this is to happen then careful of forcing for it to happen quick as this can play out over a longer period of time as market may need a longer breather/correction/consolidation before it can start a new stronger trend again. If we don't end up getting a correction under Medium MAs under VAL/Edge then staying over VAL can keep price in balance with us going back and forth in 6700 - 6900s areas for some time, to not have a correction or prevent price balance and see more strength price would need to let some MAs catch up and push us over Previous High AND be able to stay above it, until then we will be looking at either more Balance or Balance with Weakness which can give us a correction.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Fri (Dec 12)CONFIRMED EVENTS - FRI 12/12 (ET) 13:00 - Baker Hughes U.S. rig count 15:30 - CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) release (usual time) Theme risk: liquidity headlines remain in play with the Fed starting reserve-management T-bill buying on 12/12 (not a data print, but worth respecting). Market Analysis: Pre-Market Overview As we approach the market open, the ES is currently positioned near the main pivot point at 6896.50 (Y-POC). Overnight trading saw a rise to the 6911.75-6912.50 range, but prices have since retraced back below a critical resistance zone at 6908.50-6909.25, which includes the year’s value area high (Y-VAH) and the previous day’s high (PDH). This dynamic suggests a cautious trading atmosphere characterized by “tight range first, trend second,” unless we witness a definitive reclaim above this resistance. When ES gets this tight, it usually means liquidity is being packed for a pop (either direction). The trap is overtrading inside the middle of the box. Right now the clean box is: • Premium zone: 6900.75 then 6908.50-6909.25 • Bottom zone: 6892.00 then 6889.75 Key Resistance Levels: - 6900.75: Asia session low - 6908.50-6909.25: Significant resistance from Y-VAH and PDH - 6911.75-6912.50: Upper threshold to watch If buyers can maintain a position above 6909.25 for 15 minutes, it may set the stage for a rally towards 6922.25, aligning with prior closing levels. Key Support Levels: - 6892.00: London session low - 6891.25: Overnight high - 6884.75: Further potential support - 6878.00: Continued downside target - 6866.50: Year’s value area low (Y-VAL) A decisive move below 6892.00 could trigger a morning pullback towards the 6884.75-6878.00 zone, with 6866.50 acting as a deeper support reference. Today’s market activity will likely be influenced by developments in the semiconductor sector. Broadcom is placing pressure on the AI space due to concerns over margins, while Nvidia's outlook is being scrutinized in light of recent China-related headlines. Traders should brace for increased volatility around the 6900 and 6909 levels as movements in semiconductor stocks unfold. The only significant intraday economic release scheduled is the Baker Hughes rig count, expected at 1:00 PM ET. Investors should also note that larger US economic data releases are anticipated next week, following a backlog caused by the recent government shutdown. A++ SETUP 1 - REJECTION FADE (SHORT) from 6911.75-6915.50 15m pushes above 6911.75/6915.50 and closes back below 6909.25 - then 5m retest fails - then 1m first pullback gives LH. Entry: 6909.75-6911.25 Hard SL: 6916.25 (above the rejection wick) TP1: 6896.50 TP2: 6884.75 TP3: 6878.00 A++ SETUP 2 - ACCEPTANCE CONTINUATION (LONG) above 6922.25 15m full-body close above 6922.25 - then 5m pullback holds 6915.50-6911.75 and re-closes up - then 1m HL to enter. Entry: 6916.00-6918.00 (on the hold) Hard SL: 6908.25 (below the hold + back under PDH/Y-VAH area) TP1: 6934.00 TP2: 6946.50 TP3: 6976.75 Good Luck
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
3
Trading Future - 1-Minute TimeframeTrading Future - 1-Minute Timeframe CME_MINI:MES1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:M2K1! RSI Low (Reversal) Entry Strategy Spot ENTRY Trend completed - Succeed ! Entry Criteria ✔ RSI Low alert ✔ RSI crosses above MA ✔ Price crosses above SMA9 ✔ Price pullback holds SMA9 ✔ Optional: Price above SMA20 for stronger confirmation Exit Criteria ❌ Price closes below SMA9 ❌ Price falls below HMA-Low (secondary exit) ❌ Price hits target below HMA-High line Indicators Setup: 1. HMA Low/High – Length 15 Entry: Price crosses above HMA-Low and stays inside the HMA channel. Exit: Price falls below SMA 9 OR price goes below HMA-Low line (secondary exit). 2. SMA 9 (Blue) Entry: Price pulls back to SMA9 but does not fall under it. Exit: Price falls under SMA9. 3. SMA 20 (Red) Confirmation trend line. Entry Confirmation: Price crosses above SMA20. 4. SMA 70 (Teal) Higher-timeframe trend bias. 5. RSI (14) – Low/High 30/70 Reversal signal at RSI Low. RSI extreme lows highlight with BG color. 6. MACD Histogram (12/26/9) Trend confirmation: Histogram cross above 0 = momentum shift upward. Trading Steps: 1. Identify the RSI Low (Alert) RSI prints a lowest point and background highlights in the extreme zone. 2. RSI Crosses Above Its MA (Yellow) RSI breaks above its MA = early upward momentum. At the same time: Price crosses above SMA 9 (blue). 3. Entry Trigger Wait for a price pullback to SMA9, BUT price must not break below SMA9. If SMA9 holds support → Enter long. 4. Stop Loss Rules Primary Stop Loss: Price closes below SMA 9 (blue). Secondary Stop Loss: Price dips just under HMA-Low = early trend failure. 5. Position Hold Conditions (Confirmation) Hold the trade ONLY IF: Price stays above SMA 9. MACD Histogram crosses above 0 → Trend shifts from negative to positive, confirming upward movement. 6. Ride the Trend Let price continue inside HMA channel. Wait for trend to complete (usually when RSI approaches 70 or MACD weakens). 7. Profit Taking (Exit Rules) Option A: HMA-High line target Set take-profit just below HMA-High line. Option B: SMA9 Breakdown Exit when price falls below SMA 9 (blue).
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by CongsChart
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels for Thu (Dec 11th)The recent market decline has evolved into a significant liquidation wave rather than a standard pullback. Following the FOMC's interest rate cut and Jerome Powell's cautious commentary, the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) initially surged to a post-Fed high around 6,908 but then experienced a sharp reversal. The most recent four-hour candle has pushed prices below the prior higher low between 6,835 and 6,840, accompanied by increased trading volume, signaling a definitive break in the short-term market structure. Although the broader daily trend technically remains upward, the four-hour timeframe has shifted from a consistent upward trajectory to a re-evaluation of prices within the prevailing range. The immediate focal point is now the breached support band of 6,835 to 6,845. Sustaining levels below this range suggests that sellers are firmly in control, potentially steering the market toward the one-hour extension bands around 6,820 to 6,810, and possibly deeper into the 6,800 to 6,780 range. From a trend and structural perspective, the four-hour chart has registered a new lower low beneath the previous swing base, effectively ending the sequence of higher lows that supported the market’s advance since late November. Meanwhile, the one-hour chart indicates a downward trend characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, with the price approaching the 1.272 to 1.618 extension levels, approximately at 6,820 and 6,810, exhibiting strong momentum. Unless ES can reclaim and sustain levels above the broken 6,835 to 6,845 band, the short-term outlook remains decidedly bearish. The primary catalyst for today's market movement is clear: the Federal Reserve has opted for a modest interest rate reduction while signaling a careful, data-dependent path for future easing. Given that equity indices had been trading at elevated levels anticipating a more dovish stance, the Fed's communication has prompted a necessary recalibration. Today's trading session illustrates this shift, with both the E-mini S&P (ES) and E-mini Nasdaq (NQ) experiencing a concurrent decline, effectively erasing the gains observed following the recent FOMC meeting. Overnight Market Forecast As the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) continues to trade within the critical range of 6,835 to 6,845, the prevailing outlook remains bearish. Base Case Scenario: Should the ES maintain its trajectory downward, we anticipate a gradual decline towards the S1 support level at 6,820 - 6,810. A decisive hourly close below 6,810 would bring S2 into play, targeting the 6,800 - 6,780 range. Should the selling pressure persist, the market may extend its reach into the broader 6,760 - 6,733 4-hour extension band in the coming sessions. Conversely, if buyers successfully defend the 6,820 - 6,810 levels and tomorrow's economic data proves favorable, we are likely to see a reactionary bounce towards the 6,835 - 6,845 resistance zone. This area will become crucial: a rejection here would likely signal the onset of another leg down, while a firm reclaim and a 4-hour close above 6,845 could indicate that the recent selloff is merely part of a larger trading range, rather than signaling a complete trend reversal. Directional Bias: In the short term, the sentiment remains bearish below the 6,835 - 6,845 range, with key downside targets at 6,820 - 6,810, followed by 6,800 - 6,780, and ultimately the 6,760 - 6,733 level.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
ES UpdateThere is a small open gap from the one hour break yesterday that will eventually fill, but looks like we're just going to get more whipsaw. I think the pump and dump algos have been shut off for now. The next big news will be Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs, but that may not happen until next month. Just be careful about shorting retail and manufacturers (such as auto) until then. I think the court rules against Trump and that means a lot of money paid back to a lot of companies.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Wed (Dec 10th)Market Overview: The daily trend remains generally bullish, although recent sessions have manifested a sideways consolidation just beneath recent highs. Analysis of the 4-hour chart reveals a compressed range characterized by lower highs and higher lows, with prices maintained above the significant weekly demand zone between 6,600 and 6,640. On the hourly chart, the market has recently tested the support band at 6,840-6,850, currently resting at this level while momentum indicators suggest a potential upward reversal from a short-term oversold condition. This price action appears more indicative of a pause at the lower boundary of the recent trading range rather than an outright breakdown. We will continue to monitor the established levels for the week; prices have oscillated within these parameters without any clear break, suggesting that while the landscape of the market remains static, our positioning within it continues to evolve. Overnight Developments Ahead of FOMC Meeting As we head into the FOMC day, the prevailing market sentiment appears stable, with a slight upward bias as long as the support level around 6,840-6,850 holds firm. Asian and London sessions may experience dips below today's lows; however, if we manage to close above the first support level (S1), there remains potential for a rebound toward the 6,870-6,900 range as we approach the New York morning session. Conversely, a decisive break and sustaining an hourly close beneath 6,840 would likely trigger a deeper examination of the second support level (S2), situated between 6,780-6,805, during either the European or early U.S. trading hours. With the Federal Reserve's announcement imminent, we anticipate more pronounced market moves could arise predominantly once we break free from the S1/S2 or R1/R2 boundaries, rather than from the current middle of the trading range. A++ SETUP 1 - LONG Enter: 6,790 - 6,800 SL: 6,770 TP1: 6,850 TP2: 6,900 TP3: 6,920 - 6,945 A++ SETUP 2 - SHORT Enter: 6,925 - 6,935 SL: 6,965 TP1: 6,860 TP2: 6,800 TP3: 6,750 High impact news/events for tomorrow 2:00 pm - Fed interest rate decision and FOMC statement (last Fed meeting of 2025) 2:30 pm - Fed Chair Powell press conference 10:30 am - EIA weekly crude oil inventories (US oil stock data, often moves CL and ES/NQ via risk sentiment) 10:00 am - US Wholesale trade & inventories (medium impact, can move ES a bit if there is a big surprise) Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
ES (SPX, SPY) Week-Ahead Analyses (Dec 8th - 12th)Market Analysis: Multi-Timeframe Structure Indicates Continued Bullish Sentiment, Yet Signs of Fatigue Emerge Weekly Trend Assessment The weekly trend remains robustly bullish, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows since the spring lows. The latest significant weekly higher low was established in the low 6,200s, with current price action oscillating just below the resistance zone around 6,900. This positioning indicates that price is trading at a premium against the last substantial weekly swing range (approximately 6,250 to 6,900), with a key equilibrium point at around 6,575. With prices situated nearly 300 points above this mid-range, new long positions in this area are likely paying a premium, contingent upon sustained price movement rather than favorable entry points. The current weekly candle displays a small body resting at the top of the preceding expansion bar, a classic sign of balance at the top of an ongoing trend rather than a definitive reversal. Daily Trend and Range Overview The daily structure also points towards bullish momentum: since the November lows near the low 6,300s, prices have generated higher highs and higher lows, currently thriving within the strong resistance band of 6,850 to 6,900. Recent trading sessions have produced a tight range below this recent peak, with support forming around 6,840-6,860 and resistance capping at 6,890-6,905. Until there is a decisive move above the 6,905-6,920 range or a daily close beneath 6,840, the market remains in a sideways consolidation pattern at the pinnacle of this uptrend. 4-Hour Structure Insight The 4-hour chart reflects a sharp upward leg originating from approximately 6,780, reaching into the 6,900 territory, followed by overlapping candles and shallow retracements. This price action suggests that the preceding move was impulsive, and present conditions may represent a pause rather than a full reversal. The latest significant 4-hour swing demonstrates a higher high around 6,900-6,905 followed by a higher low at 6,870, with current prices positioned in the upper half of this micro-range. Momentum within the 4-hour timeframe appears to be waning: candles are producing smaller bodies, with wicks protruding in both directions, coupled with diminished trading volume. This behavior often precedes either a marginal high or a retreat towards the earlier price base. 1-Hour Contextual Analysis On the 1-hour chart, the market is currently trapped between a short-term support floor around 6,870-6,875 and a resistance cap in the 6,895-6,905 range. Overnight trading has developed within this mid-range, setting the stage for today's session. As traders enter the New York trading hours, a critical factor will be whether the market can decisively break and maintain levels above 6,905, or if that resistance will invite profit-taking and selling pressure. Momentum Indicators: Weekly and Daily Perspectives The weekly oscillator has retraced from prior overbought extremes and is now gradually ascending from a neutral zone - a constructive medium-term indicator. Although the trend remains upward, the substantial momentum surge may have already occurred. The daily oscillator presents an elevated stance, yet it is not at a new extreme and is beginning to form slightly lower highs while prices concurrently touch or slightly exceed previous highs. This presents a mild bearish divergence: the overarching trend is up, but each successive high lacks the same vigor as its predecessors. In summary, while the structural analysis continues to favor a bullish outlook, momentum indicators signal a potential slowdown in the pace of price increases. The current scenario depicts an uptrend approaching resistance, exhibiting signs of fatigue but not yet forming a definitive topping pattern. Traders should remain vigilant in this environment as they navigate the interplay of momentum and price action going forward. Key levels and zones Resistance bands (R1–R3) R1: 6,890-6,905 This is the immediate ceiling: recent intraday highs, prior NY session high, and the upper edge of the current 1H balance. It also aligns with short-term extension targets from the last 4H leg. A lot of short-term stops will sit just above it. Expect the first NY push into this pocket to attract profit-taking from longs and counter-trend scouts. R2: 6,920-6,945 This band lines up with 4H and daily Fibonacci extension confluence around the 1.272-1.618 projections from the November swing. It sits inside the broader weekly supply shelf and represents the first real “air pocket” above the current range. A clean 4H close above this pocket would be the first sign that the market wants a genuine markup phase toward 7,000 rather than yet another rejection. R3: 6,980-7,020 This is the top of the multi-month weekly supply zone and the psychological 7,000 handle. It is labeled as a weak high area on higher timeframes: structurally important because a decisive break and hold above here would confirm a fresh weekly expansion leg, while another rejection would likely start a meaningful corrective phase. Expect heavy optionality and hedging around 7,000, which can create whippy spikes when it is first tested. Support bands (S1–S4) S1: 6,840-6,860 Nearest intraday demand shelf: recent 1H lows, repeated responsive buying, and an area where volume has accumulated. As long as NY closes keep holding above this band, the current congestion can be framed as a high-level pause, not a breakdown. First test in NY AM is a candidate for a tactical bounce; repeated tests with weaker response increase the odds of a deeper flush. S2: 6,780-6,805 This is the prior 4H base from which the latest push to 6,900 launched, and it aligns with a daily demand pocket and prior breakout area. A 4H close back into and through this band would mean the most recent breakout has fully retraced. That is where swing buyers from the last leg begin to feel pain. This is also near the top of a thicker volume shelf; structurally a very attractive support for A++ bounces if reached with a fast, emotional flush. S3: 6,720-6,750 Deeper daily demand and the heart of the last congestion zone. Likely coincides with short-term moving averages and prior multi-day highs from the earlier leg. If we are in a simple pullback within an ongoing weekly uptrend, this band should hold on a closing basis. A stop-run into S3 that quickly reclaims S2 is classic “flush and spring” behavior. S4: 6,600-6,640 Major weekly demand shelf and the zone where the prior correction bottomed before the recent leg higher. A trip back here would represent a full retrace of the latest breakout and a genuine test of the weekly trend. If this zone were to fail on a weekly close, you would be talking about trend damage rather than a routine shakeout. One Decisive Pivot The S&P futures are currently operating at a crucial make-or-break level between 6,780 and 6,800. This threshold acts as the dividing line between what could be characterized as an “orderly pullback within an ongoing trend” versus a “failed breakout.” Should the S&P maintain its position above 6,780 on both a 4-hour and daily closing basis, it will likely signal a high-level consolidation phase, potentially setting up for a breakout. Conversely, if the index witnesses a sustained decline below this pivot, particularly in conjunction with a rise in volatility, we could anticipate a deeper correction targeting key support levels S3 and possibly S4 in the coming weeks. Volatility Environment The VIX is sitting comfortably in the mid-teens, reflecting relative tranquility in the options market despite the index hovering just below all-time highs. The upward-sloping term structure of implied volatility indicates that the market anticipates modest near-term fluctuations while demanding a premium for longer-dated protection-classic contango behavior. This suggests an expectation for calm leading up to the upcoming central bank decision, with an inherent potential for volatility spikes should the Fed’s declaration differ from expectations. Options Positioning and Skew Dynamics A look at the equity-only put/call ratio, which currently stands at approximately 0.43 - significantly below the 20-day average of 0.60 - signals a robust call market and a degree of optimism prevailing within single-stock and broad equity options. Meanwhile, an uptick in demand for index puts persists, as evidenced by the index put/call ratio at around 1.07 and the SPX-specific ratio at approximately 1.13. This trend implies institutional preferences for hedging mechanisms even as spot indices flirt with historic highs. Furthermore, the SKEW index, around 149, remains considerably elevated compared to its long-term average, indicating that out-of-the-money downside insurance is costly relative to at-the-money options. This reflects ongoing concerns regarding tail risks in the current subdued market environment. Overall, this paints a picture of a classic "call-happy, hedged-underneath" setup: the speculative fervor on the surface is balanced by institutional strategies focusing on downside protection. It's reasonable to infer that dealers are modestly long gamma at these index levels, which typically supports mean reversion around significant strike prices, such as 6,900, leading up to the Fed meeting - though these assumptions should be approached with caution. Market Breadth and Internals As we assess the broader market landscape, major indices concluded the previous week with modest gains, remaining within 1% of their all-time highs. Day-to-day breadth trends have exhibited a mixed demeanor; recent indicators show approximately 45% of stocks advancing while around 52% declined in one of the sessions, which leans towards a mildly negative sentiment, aligning with typical “fade at the highs” behavior rather than outright selling pressure. Technology and growth sectors have continued to lead the market, while defensive plays, particularly utilities, have trailed - a development consistent with a risk-on market sentiment as opposed to classic late-cycle caution. Collectively, these internal metrics do not appear to confirm a market top but rather suggest a consolidation phase characterized by rotation at elevated price levels. Credit and Funding Landscape High-yield credit remains resilient, with HYG trading around 80.7 and JNK near 97.3, both positioned well within a narrow range proximal to their recent highs without signs of sudden outflows. The stability observed in high-yield ETFs indicates that credit spreads remain largely intact, contributing to overall orderly funding conditions without evident stress signals to undermine equity strength. Sentiment and Crowd Positioning Analysis The latest AAII survey reveals about 44.3% of respondents are bullish, 24.9% neutral, and 30.8% bearish, positioning the bull-bear spread at approximately +13.5 percentage points - well above the long-term average and indicative of rising optimism. When coupled with the low equity put/call ratio, this sentiment reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook that could risk complacency; however, it does not yet indicate a level of extreme sentiment typically preceding major market tops. In summary, sentiment appears to support continued upward movement but carries an enhanced risk that any adverse macroeconomic developments could prompt a swift and pronounced market correction as overly crowded long positions seek exits. Cross-Asset and Global Risk Tone On the global stage, equity indices remain largely firm. The S&P 500 is experiencing a year-to-date increase of approximately 17% and is just shy of its record high. European indices like the DAX are also nearing their peaks, while Asian markets reflect mixed signals without evident distress. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market is displaying a risk-on attitude, with Bitcoin trading above $91,000 and Ethereum above $3,000 - both of which have risen recently ahead of the Fed meeting. As we move forward, the interplay of these factors will be pivotal in shaping market expectations and movements in the wake of key policy announcements. Macro and Data Calendar Context This week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve's meeting and rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. Futures markets currently reflect a strong expectation for a 25-basis-point cut from the existing range of 3.75-4.0 percent. However, internal divisions within the Fed indicate that this meeting could be one of the most contentious in recent memory. Market participants will also closely scrutinize updated projections and the tone during the press conference for insights into the anticipated rate trajectory through 2026. On the data front, traders can expect delayed JOLTS figures and employment cost data. However, no significant inflation metrics are on the immediate agenda to influence the Fed's decision. As for the week’s trading landscape, the narrative is quite clear: today and tomorrow are likely to involve positioning and range-trading at elevated levels, with Wednesday’s rate decision and subsequent press conference acting as critical catalysts that could break the current trading range of 6,850-6,900. Scenario Mapping and Odds Forecasting the market trajectory involves qualitative assessments rather than precise calculations, but the analysis reflects the prevailing structure, sentiment, and macroeconomic environment. Primary Path (Approximately 55% Probability) We expect a period of consolidation with a slight positive bias. The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) is anticipated to fluctuate between support (S1 at 6,840-6,860) and resistance (R2 at 6,920-6,945) leading up to the Fed meeting. We may witness multiple attempts to test the 6,890-6,905 ceiling, leading to sharp but controlled pullbacks. Market breadth appears mixed but stable, with the VIX remaining in the mid-teens and high-yield credit markets demonstrating resilience. A decisive directional breakout is likely to occur post-Fed - either a bullish push through R2 toward the 7,000 mark if the rate cut and guidance are deemed supportive or a bearish reaction if the Fed's tone leans hawkish. Bear-Extension Path (Around 25% Probability) This scenario suggests a failed breakout resulting in a deeper correction. Should the ES spike toward R1/R2 but decisively falter, a breakdown below S1 with a four-hour close under approximately 6,840 - either before or immediately after a hawkish Fed surprise - could trigger accelerated declines toward S2 (6,780-6,805) and potentially S3 (6,720-6,750). In this case, we would likely see the VIX rising above 20, deteriorating market breadth, and softness in high-yield indices (HYG/JNK). If these indicators remain stable, the likelihood of this path diminishes. Confirmation Triggers: A four-hour close beneath 6,840, coupled with a spike in volatility and weakening credit conditions, will signal that this bearish scenario is gaining traction. Bull-Surprise Path (Approximately 20% Probability) In this scenario, a clean breakout could initiate a year-end rally. The ES would break through R1, consolidate briefly, and then surge past R2, ideally closing above 6,945, thereby converting the 6,900 level into support. A dovish Fed decision paired with guidance perceived as growth-supportive - without reigniting inflation concerns - could easily lift prices into the R3 band (6,980-7,020) this week. Under this outcome, we would expect lowered VIX levels, a broadening of sector leadership beyond just mega-cap technology stocks, and a potential euphoric sentiment among investors. Confirmation Triggers: Sustained trading above 6,945, with S1 holding as support on any pullbacks, would confirm the validity of this bullish scenario. Order-Flow and Micro-Structure Analysis: Key Levels for Today's New York Session In today's intraday trading environment, particularly within the New York session, attention will be focused on critical resistance and support levels. Resistance Levels (R1 and R2): - At R1 (6,895-6,905), traders should monitor for late buyers entering the market. If this occurs without a corresponding increase in volume and 1m-5m candles start to show upper wicks, it may indicate potential weakness. A shift in Delta from strongly positive to neutral or negative during this price action would support a bearish outlook. - Should the price advance to R2 (6,920-6,945), the essential factor will be whether it can sustain above this level on 15-minute closes. A clean acceptance accompanied by tight consolidations in the shorter time frames would suggest a bullish continuation. Conversely, if spikes and sharp rejections are noted, this could favor a fade in prices. Support Levels (S1 and S2): - At S1 and particularly at S2, the long thesis strengthens if there is a notable expansion in volume during a flush, followed by a marked slowdown and stable buying activity. A pattern of 1m-5m candles producing higher lows, while still operating within the support zone, would further bolster the long case. In instances where the micro-structure fails to align with the broader market narrative at these pivotal levels, the prudent approach may be to refrain from trading until the market clarifies its direction in relation to impending Fed announcements. Market Forecast for Today's NY Session: - For today, the baseline expectation is for the ES to continue fluctuating within the 6,840-6,905 range, with an early attempt to breach overnight highs into the 6,895-6,905 zone. If this upward movement struggles, particularly with weak market breadth and the Nasdaq lagging, a pullback towards the 6,865-6,875 mid-range is anticipated, potentially extending down to S1 at 6,840-6,860, where we can expect responsive buyers to re-enter. - A decisive break and sustained hold above the 6,905-6,920 level ahead of Fed statements would signal market anticipation of a dovish outcome, possibly triggering an earlier test of R2. On the downside, a breach below 6,840 on a 4-hour closing basis would suggest a shift toward a bearish continuation leading into the event. Traders should focus on two A++ setups as primary strategies: consider fading any exhausted rallies approaching 6,900 and prepare to enter long positions on a genuine flush down to the 6,780-6,805 support area if the opportunity arises. A++ Setup 1 - Short from upper shelf (R1) Enter: Short ES in the 6,895-6,905 zone once you see a 5-15m rejection candle and a 1m-5m lower high back inside 6,900. SL: 6,918-6,922, above the rejection wick and inside R2. TP1: 6,860, at the top of the S1 shelf (take about 70% off and move stop to breakeven or slightly in the green). TP2: 6,810-6,800, targeting the top of S2 if momentum extends. Notes: Treat this as a high-probability fade of stretched prices into event risk; if you get a clean 4H close above ~6,920, the idea is invalid and you stand aside. A++ Setup 2 - Long from 4H base (S2) Enter: Long ES in the 6,780-6,805 zone after a fast flush into S2, a 15m candle that sweeps below and closes back above ~6,790, and then a 5m higher low above that reclaim. SL: 6,770-6,775, below the reaction low and under the S2 pocket. TP1: 6,860-6,870, back toward the S1/mid-range band (scale about 70% and move stop to breakeven or slightly positive). TP2: 6,920-6,945, targeting the R2 band if the bounce evolves into a full reclaim of the upper range. Notes: This is your preferred “flush-and-spring” play; a 4H close below ~6,780 invalidates the bounce thesis from S2 and shifts focus to lower bands.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
ES - December 8th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 8th- Daily Trade Plan - 7:10am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I would go back and review Friday's trade plan and the updated notes throughout the day. It was a great day that produced some great levels for points. It started out with the flush and recovery of 6861. 6874 then became a magnet level that produced some great flushes to 6867 and reclaim of 6874. Overnight we flushed down to 6872 (Overnight Low) and reclaimed 6874 for a nice 22pt move that created the Overnight High of 6893. As of writing this post we lost a micro support at 6888 and are bouncing at 6880. Since we are in a tight range and we have FOMC on Wednesday we may continue to chop around the next 2 sessions until we get a breakout or breakdown later this week. Key Levels Today 1. 6880 - Flush and Reclaim (lower quality) 2. 6872 - Flush and Reclaim (high quality) 3. 6867 - Flush and Reclaim (high quality) 4. 6857 - Flush and Reclaim (highest quality) While we need to focus on the current trend (which is up) any loss of 6857 (and no quick reclaim) would change the structure of the trend. Price needs to clear 6904 to create higher highs. Below these levels and price will most likely be selling off and I would be getting out the way and let price find a level below to reclaim and move higher. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows a current or prior weekly low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow shows core support/resistance levels 5. White shows overhead resistance/targets
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
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