MES1! trade ideas
Stock Index: The AI Bubble That Will Burst!ES
S&P 500 futures finishes up 0.23% as economic slowdown worries cloud rate-cut optimism. From a technical perspective, this week marks the third consecutive where ES has been trading inside of 11 Aug 25 bullish spinning top candle indicating weakness of bulls after reaching uncharted territory of $6,541.75 all-time highs.
Such signs point to a short-term retracement down into discount arrays but I am not here trying to guess the top. If it does occur, $6,355.00 is an area of interest but on an overall basis, I want to be neutral until Sunday’s opening price / opening gap.
NQ
Nasdaq follows with a 0.93% gain but with the same issue of price trading within a range, in this case, since the 4th Aug 25 weekly bullish marabozu was printed, I would not want to put my money on a continued run as of yet. Preeing short-term retracements with a discount array @ $22,781.75 is being watched closely and for the time being, I want to be neutral
YM
Dow Jones closes -0.37% lower this week with the intermediate highs of $45,887 still in tact. Will the monthly buyside liquidity pool be used to suck in unexpected bull traders before repricing to HTF discount arrays?
If I am to see a decline in the 3 stock index pairs, YM will be the pair to lookout for as the front-running market.
S&P500 about to BREAK downLook at the chart, its very EVIDENT. with this overbought and bullish sentiment, i expect the markets to CORRECT further. its still extreme greedy. You can see the support lines. S&P can correct somewhere between 5-9%. Be prepared.
SP:SPX TVC:SPX CBOE:SPX SPREADEX:SPX CBOE:XSP
OTEUM EXPERT CALL: SP500 – Jackson Hole Fade OTEUM EXPERT CALL: SP500 – Jackson Hole Fade 🏔️🐻
We’re looking for a SHORT(s) in spot and options for a macro swing down into Jackson Hole and the immediate aftermath 📉. Plan is to sell rallies into value (red box), ride the drift lower, and bank along staged targets. After that, we’ll be hunting the first-cut squeeze back up 🏦✂️🚀.
Risk: a surprise dovish leak / policy jawbone that front-runs the cut and squeezes shorts. Size smart, trail tight, don’t overstay.
#SP500 #ES #Macro #JacksonHole #ShortSetup #OTEUM
MES1! WEEK 36 AUG 24TH Looking for MON, TUE, WED to create high of the week at the AUG 29th 6A.M Bearish OB. The Head towards the 3H Equal Lows.
IF price break above the OB then you will need to sit back and reassess. Possibly look for higher prices.
CALANDER EVENT
TUES
-10AM - PMI (HIGH)
WED
-7AM - 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE (MED)
-9AM - FED SPEACH (MED)
-10AM - JOLT's JOB OPENING (HIGH)
THUR
-10AM - PMI (HIGH)
-12PM - OIL/GAS (MED)
FRIDAY
-8:30AM - NFP / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
STOCK
Look to place a Put at the time price trades to the 3H OB.
The end - 2026 Financial panicSince 2300, I’ve marked a zone and made a personal commitment: no matter what happens in the market, when this zone is approached, I will begin reducing my exposure and carefully exit all financial markets—with extreme caution and tight stop losses.
Yesterday, I received an alert I never expected to see. It signaled the approach of the zone I identified back in 2021 as the escape point—where major crashes are likely imminent and the urge to invest must be resisted.
This zone aligns with the 0.786 trend-based Fibonacci level from the 2009 bottom to the 2020 peak, as well as the April 2020 bottom. It also coincides with the 2.618 and 3.618 Fibonacci extensions from the 2007–2010 cycle, and the 3.618 trend Fibonacci from the 2002–2009 cycle. But that’s not all.
According to Gann’s Square of 9, if you examine closely, you’ll notice that whenever the trend reaches one of its primary or secondary angles since the 2009 bottom, it consistently triggers a significant drop. The end cycle at the 360° angle corresponds to 7926—perfectly aligning with all the previously mentioned Fibonacci zones.
And for those skeptical of technical analysis, consider this: the upcoming year, 2026, is a pivotal year in the Samuel Benner chart developed in 1875 to identify periods of financial disorder. Benner’s chart indicated when to buy, when to sell, and when to expect chaos. Remarkably, it has accurately forecasted major financial crashes over the past 150 years—including the Great Depression, the Dot-Com bust, and the 2020 COVID crash. According to this chart, selling during the crash year and re-entering post-crash has historically led to profitable outcomes with a +-2 Years at a 87.5% accuracy.
When you combine all these signals, it feels reckless not to take them seriously—especially since this marks the end of a cycle measured from 2009. That’s how significant it is.
To those who dismiss technical analysis, this may sound like smoke and mirrors. But for those who’ve seen its power firsthand, the sheer number of confluences here is too substantial to ignore. If I know such big crash may happen - I would be happy to wait 1-2 years on cash and take opportunity of big red markets to buy.
Curious to hear your thoughts on this.
Day 17 — Trading Only S&P Futures | A+ Setup, Done by 10AMWelcome to Day 17 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
Today was all about conviction. I spotted a rare A+ setup: X7 ES buy signals, bullish market structure, and a buy right at MOB support. That kind of alignment doesn’t happen often — so I sized up 3x my usual and went long.
The trade worked perfectly, and I wrapped up the day by 10AM with +295.37, making this the fastest finish to a session I’ve ever had in this challenge.
📰 News Highlights
STOCKS CLOSE HIGHER, VIX DIPS AS NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA EARNINGS LOOM
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6450 = Remain Bullish
Below 6435 = Flip Bearish
ES - August 28th - Daily Trade PlanAugust 28th - 5:50am EST
Let's review yesterday's trade plan. I try to keep things as simple as possible. If you have been following me, you know that I like to frame my plan by IF statements.
I posted the following yesterday:
"IF, price can reclaim and clear 6489, we should be able to test 6496, above there we should target6508 then 6522, 6547 as my main targets and bulls can still reach 6562, 6581, 6595 if they really want it!
IF, price loses 6478, a quick flush and reclaim will take us longer. Ideally, price does not go any lower than 6464 to keep the bull case moving higher."
What happened? We lost 6478, flushed to 6472, reclaimed and grinded higher into end of day. After the bell we got a massive flush and recovery of guess what? 6472 which was the daily low.
I always like to highlight the current session levels in red with other key levels in Yellow. You can pull up a 30 min chart and see that we have 3 key levels that need to hold today.
Those levels are - 6472, 6485, 6496. Any flush and reclaim of these levels, should take us higher and continue up our target levels for the week of 6522, 6547. Below 6460 and we will need to test 6453, 6430 being the weekly low in purple.
Today is pretty simple, flush and recover one of the 3 levels I mentioned above, and we keep going higher. I will say that 6472 has been tested 3X and I am not sure it will hold next time. Be careful if we are selling hard into this area.
Ideally, we flush down to 6490-93, reclaim 6496 and head higher!
I am off my desk travelling this afternoon and will try to provide an update when I can.
Nq & Es Premarket Comment 29-08-2025Good morning everyone,
I continue to believe that the market maintains a bullish trend, even though we have already reached our previous targets. However, since today is Friday, a day often characterized by unusual reactions, caution is required.
At the market open (09:30 NY time), I will be looking for long opportunities on Nasdaq (NQ), which is currently showing stronger bullish momentum compared to ES and YM. Price has already made a significant retracement and entered a discount zone, so my main focus will be to see whether the support level holds after the open before committing to any long positions.
Wishing everyone a productive and successful session.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects personal market observations and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
ES (08/27): Analyses, Fundamental, SetupsPrice is consolidating under 6489 to 6495 with a firm shelf near 6483. Above 6489 on a 5-minute confirming close, bias favors continuation into 6504, 6518, then 6532. A 5-minute close back below 6483 opens rotation toward 6468, 6458, then 6453. Trade only during 09:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET. Stand down around the listed events.
Macro Docket (ET)
• 07:00 – MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). Source notes Wednesday 7:00 AM ET. 
• 10:30 – EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard Wednesday release time). 
• 13:00 – U.S. Treasury 5-Year Note Auction (Aug 27, 2025; size listed on TreasuryDirect). 
• After the close – NVIDIA Q2 FY26 results; conference call 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT).  
• Durable Goods (July) is out: headline −2.8% m/m; ex-transport +1.1% (market still digesting). 
• Fed calendar: no Board-listed speech flagged for Wed at time of writing; I cannot confirm regional Fed schedules. 
Key Levels
• Breakout band: 6489–6495
• Line in the sand (shelf): 6483
• Support below: 6468, 6458, 6453, 6444–6448
• Upside magnets: 6504/6506, 6518–6520, 6532–6535
A++ Setup 1: Acceptance Long above 6489
• Trigger: First 5-minute close >= 6489 with follow-through (no immediate fade).
• Entry: 6490–6491 (momentum on signal).
• Initial SL: 6484 (about 6 pts; below shelf).
• Targets: TP1 6505 (+15), TP2 6518 (+28), TP3 6532 (+42).
• R:R to TP1 approx 2.5.
• Management: Scale 1/2 at TP1; move to break-even only after new structure or a decisive close through TP1; then trail by last 5-minute swing or VWAP band.
• Invalidation: 5-minute close back below 6483 or persistent absorption under 6495.
A++ Setup 2: Shelf-Break Short below 6483
• Trigger: 5-minute close <= 6483 with clear rejection (no immediate reclaim).
• Entry: 6482 (momentum on signal).
• Initial SL: 6488 (about 6 pts; back inside range).
• Targets: TP1 6467 (−15), TP2 6458 (−24), TP3 6453 (−29).
• Short confirmation protocol: Start half size on the 5-minute break when the 15-minute trend was bullish; size to full only if a bearish 15-minute close prints within the next 3 x 5-minute bars. If within 2 x 5-minute bars there is no extension (new low) and price threatens a shelf reclaim, reduce or scratch to BE.
• Invalidation: 5-minute reclaim above 6489 or obvious absorption at 6468 forming higher lows.
Execution Rules (condensed)
• Windows: 09:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET.
• Risk: initial stop 6–8 pts; max 2 attempts per idea; day hard stop −2R; lock day at +3R; no scalps.
• News clock: no new risk within approx plus/minus 5 minutes of MBA (07:00), EIA (10:30), 5-yr auction (13:00).
• Close protocol: if trading late day, adjust sizing based on NYSE MOC imbalance (sub-$500M = tiebreaker only; >= $1B = can trade with confirmation; >= $2B = allow continuation holds into the cross).
ES Analyses, Key Zones, Setups, Bias (08/29)Fundamentals for Fri, Aug 29 (ET)
• 08:30 — Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE) for July. Official BEA schedule lists this release for Aug 29, 8:30am. 
• 08:30 — Advance Economic Indicators (Advance Goods Trade Balance, Retail & Wholesale Inventories) — scheduled Aug 29. 
• 09:45 — Chicago PMI (Aug). Usual release time 9:45am; calendars list Aug 29.  
• 10:00 — U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final Aug). Institute notes next data Fri Aug 29 at 10am. 
• Context — Next FOMC: Sep 16–17. Recent Fed commentary leans toward a potential cut dependent on incoming data (e.g., Waller remarks today).  
Implication: 8:30 data can set the day’s bias; 9:45–10:00 can create a second impulse. Use our macro blackout (±10m) rule around these times.
Structure & Bias (multi-TF snapshot)
• HTF (D/4H/1H): constructive uptrend with HH/HL; price is consolidating just under overhead supply.
• LTF (30m/15m/5m): Asia range formed near the highs; New-York PM printed a marginal higher high and stalled.
• Working bias: Neutral-to-bullish above the pivot cluster; flips bearish only on a 15m close back through the pivot (see Zones).
Key Zones (why they matter)
Numbers are rounded to the nearest quarter-point when appropriate.
Overhead supply / breakout gate
1. 6516.75–6523 = AS.H → NYPM.H band (resting liquidity / prior sweep zone). Acceptance above unlocks extensions.
Acceptance / flip cluster (the hinge)
2) 6512.5–6516.75 = Asia range.
3) 6506.75–6508.5 (with PDH ~6507.50) = prior session highs & intraday BOS retest (hard pivot).
→ Hold above = constructive; lose it on a 15m bearish close = momentum shift down.
Supports below (ladder)
4) ~6497 = intraday LL / demand edge.
5) ~6492 = micro shelf / HVN pivot.
6) 6480–6484 = prior NY AM low / prior swing shelf (first deeper magnet).
7) 6468–6472 = prior day range floor cluster (PDL/PMH vicinity) — next hard liquidity.
Upside magnets
• ~6534–6536 = 1h measured move/extension cluster.
• ~6553–6556 = 30m 1.272 ext / HVN edge.
• ~6579–6582 = 1.618 ext / exhaustion pocket.
(All targets respect our “Hard Liquidity first” rule; then extensions.)
A++ Setups (score ≥9 only)
A) Breakout-Acceptance Long (primary)
• Trigger: 30m close above 6516.75, then 15m MOS holds above the box; wait for a 5m confirmation (micro BOS or clean retest that doesn’t reclaim the box).
• Entry zone: 6518–6520 on the retest/impulse continuation.
• Initial SL: 6–8 pts (tightest of: under the 15m trigger bar or below 6512).
• TPs:
• TP1: +15 pts → ~6534–6536 (first hard magnet/extension).
• TP2: ~6553–6556 (next HTF zone).
• TP3 (runner): trail via 15m/30m closes toward ~6579–6582.
• Management: Scale ½ at TP1; move SL→BE only after structure break or 15m/30m close through TP1, then trail by 15m/30m swings.
• Disqualifiers: 15m closes back inside ≤6516 after trigger; macro-print within blackout; clear Liquidity-Wall ≤5 pts above entry that blocks TP1 ≥15 pts.
B) Rejection → Breakdown Short (secondary)
• Trigger path 1 (fade failure): Wick into 6516.75–6523 and a 15m bearish close back inside the box plus 5m confirmation (CHoCH / OB tap).
• Trigger path 2 (momentum break): 15m close below 6506–6508 (PDH/NYAM.H cluster) → 5m retest failure of 6508–6510.
• Entry zone: 6514–6518 (fade) or 6508–6511 (retest short).
• Initial SL: 6–8 pts (above 6521 on fades; above 6516 on retests).
• TPs:
• TP1: ~6492–6495 (≥15 pts and a hard pivot).
• TP2: ~6480–6484 (NY AM shelf).
• TP3: ~6468–6472 (prior range floor); trail by 15m/30m.
• Mandatory (bearish) rule: needs both 15m bearish confirmation and 5m alignment before entry (per protocol).
• Disqualifiers: 30m re-acceptance above 6512.5–6516.75 after entry; macro blackout.
Execution Rules (strict)
• Time windows: 9:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET only.
• Confirmations: 30m trigger → 15m MOS → 5m close; bearish trades require 15m bearish close.
• Risk: SL = min(under 15m trigger bar, 6–8 pts). Daily hard stop −2R; lock day at +3R.
• Targets: TP1 ≥ +15 pts at a Hard Liquidity level; front-run 1–2 pts.
• No trades inside macro blackout windows or if Liquidity-Wall blocks TP1.
ES Futures LONG Setup | 6462 → 6556
# 🚀 ES Futures LONG Setup | 6462 → 6556 🎯 (1:2 R\:R)
### 📝 Market Bias
* **Conditional Bullish** into US open.
* Higher-timeframe trend strong (price > 10/20/50/200 SMAs).
* **BUT** intraday momentum still mixed (MACD bearish) + thin overnight liquidity.
👉 **Trade ONLY if liquidity & momentum confirm at open.**
---
### 🎯 Trade Idea
**Setup:** Conditional LONG (market open only)
* 📍 **Entry:** 6462.25 (acceptable range 6455 – 6475)
* 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 6415.15 (0.75 × ATR = 47.10 pts)
* 💰 **Take Profit:** 6556.45 (2 × stop = 94.20 pts)
* ⚖️ **Risk/Reward:** 1 : 2
* 💪 **Confidence:** 60%
**Risk/Reward per Contract:**
* ❌ Risk = \$2,355
* ✅ Reward = \$4,710
---
### 📊 Position Sizing
* Formula: `contracts = floor((account_size × risk%) / (stop_pts × $50))`
* Example:
* \$100k acct @ 2% risk → 0 contracts (use micro/mini).
* \$200k acct → 1 contract.
* \$250k acct → 2 contracts.
---
### 📈 Scale & Exits
* Take **50% profit @ 6509.35** (1× stop).
* Hold rest to **6556.45 TP**.
* Move stop to breakeven after scaling.
---
### ⚠️ Key Risks
* Very thin overnight liquidity → slippage risk.
* MACD still bearish; must improve at open.
* Price near 20-day highs → upside limited.
* Event/headline risk at open.
---
### ✅ Pre-Conditions (MUST at Open)
* Strong liquidity/volume vs overnight.
* Price holds above SMA10 & SMA20.
* Preferable: MACD histogram improves in 15–30 mins.
❌ If conditions fail → NO TRADE.
---
### 📌 Trade JSON (For Algo/Notes)
```json
{
"instrument": "ES",
"direction": "long",
"entry_price": 6462.25,
"stop_loss": 6415.15,
"take_profit": 6556.45,
"size": 1,
"confidence": 0.60,
"entry_timing": "market_open",
"point_value": 50,
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-25 15:47:27"
}
```
---
### 🔖 Hashtags
\#ES #SP500 #FuturesTrading #OptionsTrading #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TradeSetup #MarketOpen #RiskReward #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #StockMarket #TradingSignals #ScalpSetup
ES (A++) — Plan, Key Levels & Fundamentals for Tue, Aug 26Market context (quick read)
Price closed beneath the mid-range pivot (6,466–6,468) after repeated rejections from the 6,478–6,483 supply shelf. Immediate downside magnets are 6,457 → 6,453 → 6,441; deeper LVN/demand sits 6,398 → 6,370. Overhead, a squeeze can develop if we accept back above 6,48x toward 6,495 and the 6,50x handle.
Key levels (how to use them)
• 6,487–6,495 (PDH/PWH) – Last distribution. Acceptance above can extend to 6,505/6,510; rejection often rotates back to 6,48x.
• 6,478–6,483 (Supply shelf / bull-bear line) – Reclaiming/holding this band flips bias up; failure keeps pressure lower.
• 6,466–6,468 (Pivot shelf) – Doorway between upper/lower halves of the day’s composite.
• 6,457 (Monday’s low) – First support; loss opens 6,453 quickly.
• 6,453 (NYPM Low) – Breakdown confirmation level; below it, sellers typically press 6,441.
• 6,441 (AS Low / demand) – First HTF demand; acceptance below shifts auction to the lower deck.
• 6,398 → 6,370 (LVN / PWL) – Deeper targets if momentum expands.
Primary A++ setups (rule-based)
1. Acceptance Short (A++)
• Trigger: First 5m close < 6,452.
• Entry: 6,452 → 6,449 continuation.
• Initial SL: 6,460 (≤8 pts).
• TP1: 6,437 (+15) • TP2: 6,425 (+27) • TP3: 6,398 (+54).
• Management: If no extension within 2×5m bars, reduce/scratch; hard invalidate on 5m close > 6,457.
2. Acceptance Long (A++)
• Trigger: First 5m close ≥ 6,480–6,483.
• Entry: 6,480–6,483.
• Initial SL: 6,474 (6–9 pts; keep ≤8 if entering near 6,482).
• TP1: 6,495 (+12–15) • TP2: 6,505/6,510.
• Management: Invalidate on 5m close < 6,478 or no progress within 2×5m bars.
Fundamental “Risk Clock” — Tue, Aug 26 (ET)
• 08:30 — Advance Durable Goods Orders (July), U.S. Census Bureau. Official schedule lists Aug 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET. 
• 09:00 — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June). SPDJI notes release 9:00 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday; FRED lists the next release date Aug 26, 2025.  
• 09:00 — FHFA House Price Index (June + Q2 report). FHFA calendar confirms Aug 26 (Quarterly with monthly tables). 
• 10:00 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug), next release Tue, Aug 26, 10:00 a.m. ET. 
• 10:00 — Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). Richmond Fed schedule shows Tue, Aug 26 (10:00 a.m. typical). 
• 13:00 — U.S. Treasury 2-Year Note Auction. Official offering announcement sets auction date Aug 26, 2025; competitive close is typically 1:00 p.m. ET (non-comp 12:00 p.m. ET). 
• Bills (same day) — Treasury “Upcoming Auctions” lists 17-Week and 4-Week bills for Aug 26. 
This week’s broader context: Markets are watching NVIDIA and other tech/retail earnings plus Friday’s PCE inflation read; these can shift risk appetite around our levels. 
⸻
Playbook integration (how the data can affect execution)
• Stronger durables / firmer confidence: If yields back up into the 2-year auction, equity indices often lean heavy—watch for rejection under 6,466–6,468 and a 5m break < 6,452 to trigger the short plan. (Scenario guidance, not a guarantee.)
• Softer durables / cooler housing prints: If risk appetite improves and we accept ≥ 6,480–6,483, use the long plan toward 6,495 → 6,505/6,510.
• Auction hour (12:50–13:10 ET): Expect a brief liquidity air-pocket; avoid fresh entries into the print and reassess after the first post-auction rotation. (Auction timing per Treasury norms above.) 
ES (S&P 500 Futures) — Outlook for Thursday, Aug 28Macro Drivers
• Earnings Reports: Watch Best Buy, Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, Marvell, Affirm → consumer + tech sentiment drivers.
Economic Data:
• Q2 GDP (2nd estimate): Consensus ~3.1% YoY. Stronger print = bullish, weaker = bearish.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: Key labor health indicator → surprises can shift Fed rate expectations.
• Pending Home Sales (July): Forecast +0.5%. Housing often ties into rate expectations.
Sentiment Risks:
• NVDA earnings digested, but positioning still fragile.
• Treasury yields remain high → liquidity pressure.
• Political / Fed uncertainty adds headline risk.
⸻
Technical Key Levels (HTF Zone Mapping)
• ATH: 6508.75
• Major Liquidity Wall: 6500 (multi-timeframe rejection zone)
• Support Shelf: 6480–6483 (equilibrium & PMH)
• Deeper Support: 6459 → 6450–6452 (1H/4H shelves)
• Discovery Mode Fib Projections (above ATH):
• 1.272 = 6554
• 1.618 = 6580
• 2.0 = 6608
⸻
Setups for Tomorrow
1. Bullish Breakout — Discovery Mode Long
• Trigger: 30m close ≥6500 + 15m MOS extension.
• Entry Zone: 6500–6502.
• Stop: Below 6492–6493 (tighter of bar low or 6–8 pts).
• TP1: ATH 6508.75 (front-run 6507.75).
• TP2: Fib 1.272 ~6554.
• TP3: Fib 1.618 / 2.0 → 6580 / 6608 (runner, trail by 15m/30m structure).
⸻
2. Bearish Breakdown — Short Setup
• Trigger: 30m close ≤6483.
• MOS Confirmation: 15m close <6472.75.
• Entry Zone: 6479–6482.
• Stop: Above 6488–6490 (or 6–8 pts).
• TP1: 6459.
• TP2: 6450–6452.
• TP3: 6444 shelf (runner).
⸻
3. Chop / No-Trade Zone
• If ES trades inside 6483–6500 without breakout → no A++ setup. Stay sidelined.
ES - August 27th - Daily Trade Plan7:15am EST - Daily Trade Plan
Yesterday I wrote the following:
"IF, price can reclaim and clear 6453, we should be able to test 6464, above there we should target 6470, 6482, 6487, 6496, 6508 then 6522, 6547 as my main targets and bulls can still reach 6562, 6581, 6595 if they really want it!"
We cleared 6453 on the 3rd attempt from the overnight test of resistance. At 9:30am, price took out all the retail stops down to 6444 and then resumed the rally with us hitting the first 3 targets above.
Overnight we are building our next base for the continued push higher with 6478-6489 as the range. We have tested 6489 2X overnight and I could see us doing the same thing as yesterday at the open, flush 6478, take out stops and rally higher. IF, price does not come lower and clears 6489, I will look for a back test opportunity to get long. 6496 is the first big resistance, I expect price to test a few times before going higher, but it doesn't have to.
I always like to frame my daily possibilities of price by the following statement:
IF, price can reclaim and clear 6489, we should be able to test 6496, above there we should target6508 then 6522, 6547 as my main targets and bulls can still reach 6562, 6581, 6595 if they really want it!
IF, price loses 6478, a quick flush and reclaim will take us longer. Ideally, price does not go any lower than 6464 to keep the bull case moving higher.
Update will come out at 10am EST.
VIX Futures Positioning Sends Volatility Smoke SignalsIf real money exposure to the futures market is any guide, the VIX may be at or near a cycle low — implying that higher volatility could be on the horizon for Wall Street. Should a significant catalyst emerge, it could ripple through risk appetite across multiple asset classes.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index.
Nq & Es Premarket comment 26-08-2025Good morning everyone,
Price is approaching the equilibrium level, having already entered a daily FVG. For this reason, I will be looking for potential long setups — but only if, after the 09:30 NY open, I see price finding support at this key level below the purple line.
I will wait for proper confirmation before entering, in order to ensure a high-quality long trade.
Wishing everyone a successful trading session.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis reflects personal market observations and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
Day 16 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Rocky Start, Strong FinishWelcome to Day 16 of Trading Only S&P Futures!
Started the session following bullish structure while the market whipped up and down, which made it tricky to hold conviction early. Toward the end of the day, a short at 6482 finally gave clean follow-through, helping me turn a rocky start into a solid +296.25 finish.
The price action was choppy at times but still provided opportunities if you stayed patient.
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6415 = Remain Bullish
Below 6405 = Flip Bearish