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ES - December 5th - Daily Trade PlanDecember 5th- Daily Trade Plan - 7:30am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We had a nice push higher into the close yesterday and set the overnight low at 6861. This low produced a nice bounce for about 25pts into the overnight high of 6886. Technically we continue to make higher highs and higher lows. We are coming into some key resistances that will determine if this consolidation range has been distributing or accumulating by the institutions this week. We can see clearly on a 1hr time frame chart that 6836 was our last big dip yesterday that produced a nice rally yesterday afternoon and into the overnight session. Price needs to hold 6818 for this trend to continue. Ideally, we can get one more big flush below 6836 and quickly reclaim for a quality failed breakdown. Flush and reclaim of the overnight low at 6861 is another quality level to look for. 6874 is the lowest quality level but might be all we get. Key levels today 1. 6874 flush and reclaim (lower quality) 2. 6861 flush and reclaim (high quality) 3. 6847 flush and reclaim (Can wait for reclaim of 6861 for higher quality) 4. 6836 flush and reclaim (might only get to 6841 or 6847) IF price does clear 6897-6900, we should continue higher into the 6952 and then ATH's. IF price loses 6836 and cannot quickly recover then we could be in for a strong sell off below. I will with 6812, 6801, 6790 being the top 3 levels I will be looking for points. Below these levels and price will most likely be selling off and I would be getting out the way and let price find a level below to reclaim and move higher. I will post an update around 10am EST ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows a current or prior weekly low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow shows core support/resistance levels 5. White shows overhead resistance/targets
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
4
ES (SPX. SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Fri (Dec 19th)News + schedule BoJ delivered a 25 bp hike to 0.75% - this can keep early-session volatility elevated via yen/carry-trade unwind and rate moves. 10:00AM Existing Home Sales (Nov), 10:00AM Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final). ES is currently bracketed by a solid support level between 6820 and 6824 and a formidable resistance zone ranging from 6863 to 6872. Until either side manages to establish dominance with a convincing 15-minute close outside these boundaries, we can anticipate continued fluctuations and volatility within the midpoint range of 6840 to 6855. A++ Setup 1 - LONG (Sweep-reclaim at the bottom) Trigger (15/5/1): 15m sweep under 6820.50-6823.50 and close back above 6823.50 - 5m holds above 6823 - 1m first pullback that holds. Entry: 6824.00-6826.00 Hard SL: 6810.75 TP1: 6854.50 TP2: 6863.00 TP3: 6872.00 A++ Setup 2 - SHORT (Rejection from the cap) Trigger (15/5/1): 15m push into 6863-6872 and close back below 6863 - 5m fails to reclaim 6863 - 1m lower-high entry. Entry: 6860.50-6862.50 Hard SL: 6870.75 TP1: 6842.25 TP2: 6823.25 TP3: 6811.75 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Maybe range-bound on Friday In my view, the market is likely to be range-bound on Friday, as it is currently consolidating within a potential triangle pattern and continues to oscillate inside this formation. For swing traders, this is not an ideal time to enter trades. Instead, it is advisable to wait for a breakout before determining the future trend direction. Given that the recent support and resistance levels have proven to be reliable and effective in multiple tests, even if the price breaks out of the triangle zone, it may still encounter resistance and pull back, or hit support and rebound subsequently.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gary186
ES_F Bulls Are On The RopesToday price continued on the recent path of weakness and it looks like Bears are throwing some heavier punches at the Bulls. Will the Bulls wake up after four straight red days or will they keep taking some more shots to the chin before their manager throws in the towel? If we take a step back and zoom out to the Daily chart we can see that the overall uptrend is still in tact and I wouldn’t consider this totally broken unless we lose 6600/6585. On one hand that is a good sign for the Bulls but it also shows that we could lose another 200 points before this weakness lets up. On the shorter time frame that I use for our daily levels things aren’t looking so rosy. Today price broke through and held below the 50MA(6831) and we are also seeing the 8MA(6872) just about to cross down below the 21MA(6871). We also broke back into the flag structure that we broke out of right after Thanksgiving and we are testing a rising trendline that goes back to April. Bulls really need to show some life here or we are going to see continued weakness as the Bears press for the 100MA(6718). You can follow the levels in more detail on my Substack (link in bio).
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by NOBSForex
1
RSI Is Measuring What You’re Already TradingThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most persistent tools in technical analysis. Despite being widely available and heavily discussed, it is frequently misapplied. Its reputation as a “basic” oscillator has led many traders to underestimate its true function. RSI was never designed as a buy/sell signal generator. It is a momentum framework, quantifying internal strength, participation, and directional efficiency in price movement. This article examines RSI from a professional perspective: its mathematical structure, its behavior across market regimes, and why it remains relevant in modern discretionary and institutional analysis. 📈 RSI’s Mathematical Construction (Why It’s Still Relevant) 📈 RSI was introduced by J. Welles Wilder Jr. in 1978 and is built on a smoothed comparison of average gains versus average losses over a fixed lookback period. The key element is Wilder’s smoothing, which creates continuity in momentum measurement. Unlike raw rate-of-change or unfiltered oscillators, RSI reduces short-term randomness while preserving meaningful changes in directional pressure. Mathematically, RSI functions as: a normalized momentum ratio a bounded statistical model a low-noise momentum estimator This structure allows RSI to remain comparable across: assets volatility regimes timeframes This is not a subjective advantage — it is a mathematical one. 📈 RSI as a Momentum Diagnostic, Not a Signal 📈 One of the most common misunderstandings is treating RSI as a trigger. In professional analysis, RSI answers state-based questions, not directional predictions: Is momentum expanding or contracting? Is price movement internally supported? Is participation increasing or deteriorating? RSI evaluates momentum quality, not outcome. Price can move higher while momentum weakens. Price can stall while momentum builds. RSI exists to measure that internal condition. 📈 RSI Behavior Across Market Regimes 📈 In strong directional markets, RSI behaves asymmetrically: Bullish trends: RSI typically holds above 40–50 Pullbacks show shallow momentum retracements Bearish trends: RSI caps below 60 Rallies fail internally This behavior reflects momentum compression, not randomness. 📈 Divergence: What It Actually Tells You 📈 RSI divergence is often framed as a reversal signal. This is inaccurate. Divergence measures internal inefficiency, price is extending, but momentum is no longer confirming. This implies: decreasing participation reduced directional efficiency increased probability of consolidation or structural change It does not guarantee reversal timing. Institutions interpret divergence as risk information, not entries. 📈 Why RSI Still Appears in Professional Analysis 📈 RSI remains in use because it performs well under scrutiny: It adapts to volatility It survives backtesting across decades It identifies regime changes earlier than lagging indicators It complements price instead of competing with it Institutions do not use RSI mechanically. They use it contextually. Common professional applications include: identifying crowded momentum comparing relative strength across correlated assets monitoring momentum decay during position management validating regime persistence RSI’s durability comes from statistical reliability, not popularity. 📈 Conclusion 📈 RSI is not outdated. It is frequently misunderstood. When used as a momentum and regime framework, RSI provides information that price alone cannot. Its value lies in diagnosing market condition, not predicting outcome. For traders who move beyond simplistic interpretations, RSI remains one of the most reliable analytical tools available.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by evilquantum
ES Daily: Bearish Divergence Detected at Resistance — Caution Taking a step back to the daily timeframe on ES. After the strong November rally, we're seeing some warning signs develop at these levels. Recon Summary: Coil: CHOPPY — avoid trend trades Rush: Momentum FADING but direction still bullish Venom: CONTESTED — no clear buyer/seller control Strike: LONG position active, but "watch momentum" warning MTF: LTFs BEARISH (60 + 240) vs HTFs BULLISH (1W + 1M) — classic timeframe divergence Pulse: Momentum UP 9 bars (avg 27, 90th: 55) Snap: BEARISH DIVERGENCE detected Fangs: Support 6805 | Resist 6900.5 Recon is flagging "BEARISH DIVERGENCE - momentum fading" This is significant. Price pushed to new highs but momentum didn't confirm. Snap is picking up the divergence and Recon is synthesizing it into a clear warning. Venom shows CONTESTED control with pressure at just 4.6 and flow FALLING. Volume is LOW. Nobody's committing here. Rush tells an interesting story — direction is BULLISH with STRONG strength (86%), but momentum is FALLING and market state is CHOP. That 86% strength reading is residual from the November move, but the fading momentum and chop state suggest distribution may be underway. My read: The weekly and monthly remain bullish (HTFs BULLISH 1W + 1M), but shorter timeframes are rolling over (LTFs BEARISH 60 + 240). With bearish divergence confirmed and momentum fading at resistance near 6900, this looks like a pullback setup rather than a continuation buy. Watching 6805 support — a break there opens 6630-6500. Bulls need to reclaim momentum above 6900 to invalidate. Not chasing longs here. Wouldn't go short. Stay Neutral.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by signalviper
ES_F is chopping. Watch levels below for moves up and down.Here are the major levels I would watch today for #ES_F. We had a nice trade during globex when price broke down 6795 and hit our target at 6775. This plan was shared before it happened on Substack (link in Bio). Price bounced off of that test and we want to see how it reacts at the 21MA(6825). Break/hold above is a long and holding below is a short back down to 6795. Check the Substack post for more levels on both sides. Have a good day! AMEX:SPY , SP:SPX , $ES_F, $NQ_F
CME_MINI:ESZ2025
by NOBSForex
Day 82 — Falling Asleep During the Session (But Still Green)Ended the day +$130 trading S&P Futures. I came into the session bearish, spotting a setup right at the 10-minute resistance. I managed to execute a short at the open and secure the profit, but the reality of trading US markets from Asia hours caught up with me. I was completely exhausted and literally fell asleep right after that first trade. While I’m happy to be green, it stings to wake up and realize I missed some great movements, including a perfect chance to go long when the market hit the oversold and longer-timeframe MOB levels. 📰 News Highlights *DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ END LOWER AS TECH STOCKS TUMBLE AHEAD OF JOBS REPORT 🔔 VX Algo Signals 9:42 AM — MES Market Structure flipped bearish (X3) ✅ 10:40 AM — VXAlgo ES X1 Oversold signal ✅ 2 out of 2 signals worked — 100% accuracy today. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6925 = Bullish Below 6910 = Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
1
ES_F Bulls May Be Running Out of GasToday price tested that 21MA(6826) and still held it but bulls are looking weak here and really need to step up or the Bears are going to start smiling as they push price back into our previous downtrend and try to test the 50MA(6775). I don’t like how the Bulls have failed on their rally attempts above 6900 and I also don’t love that the 8 and 21MA are starting to curl down as price failed to break that lower high we were testing last week. The Bulls still have a chance here if they can hold the 21MA but price is testing below this level as I type this and they haven’t stepped up at all last week so I will be cautious and open to both sides depending on how this action plays out. Check out my Substack post for detailed levels and plans (link in Bio).
CME_MINI:ESZ2025
by NOBSForex
ES | Wk 5`T.A explained - BackSide (BS) FrontSide (FS) Inverse BS (Inv.BS) Inverse FS (Inv.FS) BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by StudyGuideTA
ES_F is at a crossroads for Bulls and BearsBulls are trying to hang on to the breakout and Bears are trying to break the 21MA(6826). We have some familiar levels from last week as we are back in the same choppy range that we were stuck in previously. Short term resistance is at 6865 and short term support is at 6826. I would be bullish on a break/hold above resistance to target 6890 and I would be short on a break/hold below support to target 6805. I share a lot more levels and discussion on Substack which you can find in my signature.
CME_MINI:ESZ2025
by NOBSForex
ES | Week 50 | 1hr chartT.A explained - BackSide (BS) FrontSide (FS) Inverse BS (Inv.BS) Inverse FS (Inv.FS) BS & FS levels are expected support when dashed lines, tested when dotted and resistance when solid lines. The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Monthly timeframe is color pink weekly grey daily is red 4hr is orange 1hr is yellow 15min is blue 5min is green if they are shown. strength favors the higher timeframe. 2x dotted levels are origin levels where trends have or will originate. When trends break, price will target the origin of the trend. its math, when the trend breaks, the vertex breaks too so the higher timeframe level/trend that breaks, the more volatility there could be as strength in the orders flow in to fuel the move.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by StudyGuideTA