Buyers returnedBuyers returned to the daily chart of the S&P 500 on Tuesday. The challenge is can buyers follow through to the upside. The objective is 6750.
Trade ideas
Follow-through is expectedFollow through by buyers on the daily chart in the S&P 500 for Tuesday is the next expected behavior and the objective to the upside is 6750.
NQ & ES After Hours Comment Monday 13-10-2025As mentioned earlier, we just witnessed one of the weakest consolidation sessions of the year. There was virtually no meaningful price action — nothing significant could be done from a trading perspective.
The best decision was to stay out of the market entirely. In the end, the secondary scenario played out, with the price drifting slowly and lethargically higher throughout the session.
Back here tomorrow at 08:45 AM NY time (45 minutes ahead of the market open).
PF
Update on a chart i outline in September after FridayWe stopped at a pivot point Friday afternoon and Monday will determine whether we stop and consolidate or push lower into 6115. Be careful out there
ES Levels of interestThe T.A paints the picture.
INV. levels. are resistance unless solid lines.
FS / BS levels are support unless solid lines
1x dotted are tested
2x dotted. are Origin levels where Trends originate from; a vertices in the fractals of time.
Each level is color coded to the timeframe the candle was found on.
Strength favors the higher timeframes
Pink = month
grey = week
red = day
orange - 4hr
yellow - 1 hr
15min - blue
5min - green
ES 10/10Same Weekly ES chart. I leave the same lines and update the levels to dotted when tested. I adapt trends if needed or leave them and start new as range trends develop.
other replays show the week progression from previous days.
Imbalance in Global TradeIntroduction
Global trade forms the backbone of the modern international economy. It connects nations, drives industrial growth, and allows countries to access goods and services that they cannot efficiently produce domestically. Yet, the global trading system is rarely balanced. Trade imbalances—situations where a country’s exports and imports are unequal—have persisted for decades, shaping global economic relations, currency movements, and geopolitical power dynamics.
The term global trade imbalance refers to persistent surpluses in some countries and chronic deficits in others. While in theory, these imbalances should correct themselves through market forces like currency adjustments, in practice, they often persist for years or even decades. This imbalance affects growth, employment, debt sustainability, and even political stability worldwide.
This essay provides a comprehensive examination of the causes, impacts, and potential remedies of global trade imbalances, exploring both macroeconomic and structural dimensions.
1. Understanding Global Trade Imbalance
1.1 Definition
A trade imbalance occurs when the value of a country’s imports does not equal the value of its exports.
Trade surplus: When a country exports more than it imports.
Trade deficit: When a country imports more than it exports.
On a global scale, total exports should equal total imports. However, measurement discrepancies, financial flows, and uneven development levels cause persistent imbalances across nations.
1.2 Measurement of Imbalances
Trade imbalances are primarily measured using:
Balance of Payments (BoP): Captures the difference between exports and imports of goods and services.
Current Account Balance: Includes trade in goods and services, income flows, and transfer payments.
Persistent current account surpluses or deficits reflect underlying structural issues in savings, investments, productivity, and competitiveness.
2. Historical Context of Global Trade Imbalance
2.1 Post-World War II Period
After World War II, the Bretton Woods system established a dollar-based trade framework. The United States, with its vast industrial capacity, ran consistent trade surpluses, supplying goods to war-torn Europe and Asia. However, as Europe and Japan rebuilt their economies, U.S. surpluses diminished, giving way to growing deficits in the 1970s and beyond.
2.2 Rise of Export-Led Economies
The late 20th century witnessed the emergence of export-oriented economies, particularly in East Asia. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and later China, adopted strategies emphasizing industrialization through exports. These nations accumulated large trade surpluses, while countries like the United States, with high consumption and low savings, developed persistent deficits.
2.3 The China-U.S. Dynamic
The China–U.S. trade relationship epitomizes the global imbalance. China’s manufacturing dominance and low labor costs have led to enormous trade surpluses with the U.S., while the American economy, driven by consumer spending, has run chronic deficits. This imbalance is both economic and political, influencing currency policies, tariffs, and global investment patterns.
3. Causes of Global Trade Imbalances
Global trade imbalances arise from multiple, interconnected causes—macroeconomic, structural, and institutional.
3.1 Differences in Savings and Investment Rates
According to macroeconomic theory, a country’s current account balance equals its national savings minus investment:
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Current Account=Savings−Investment
Countries like China, Germany, and Japan have high savings and relatively low domestic consumption, leading to surpluses.
Conversely, countries like the United States, India, and the UK have lower savings and higher consumption or investment levels, resulting in deficits.
3.2 Exchange Rate Policies
Exchange rates play a critical role in determining trade competitiveness.
Undervalued currencies (as historically maintained by China) make exports cheaper and imports expensive, sustaining trade surpluses.
Overvalued currencies hurt export competitiveness, leading to deficits.
Currency manipulation or managed exchange rates can thus perpetuate global imbalances.
3.3 Structural Economic Differences
Industrial Base: Surplus nations often have strong manufacturing sectors, producing high-value exports.
Consumption Patterns: Deficit countries typically have high domestic demand for foreign goods.
Technological Capability: Advanced technology allows surplus countries to dominate key export industries.
3.4 Trade and Tariff Policies
Protectionist or liberal trade policies influence the direction of global trade.
Export subsidies and tariff barriers distort trade balances.
Free trade agreements (FTAs) can also shift imbalances by favoring competitive economies.
3.5 Role of Multinational Corporations (MNCs)
Global value chains managed by MNCs contribute significantly to trade imbalances. For instance:
U.S. companies producing goods in China for export back to the U.S. inflate China’s trade surplus.
Profit repatriation and transfer pricing further distort trade statistics.
3.6 Technological Advancements and Automation
Automation and digitalization have enabled advanced economies to maintain productivity with fewer domestic jobs, encouraging outsourcing to low-cost nations. This shift reinforces trade imbalances between developed and developing economies.
3.7 Fiscal and Monetary Policies
Expansionary fiscal policies (e.g., government deficits) increase imports by boosting domestic demand. Loose monetary policies can also depreciate the currency and affect trade flows.
4. Major Examples of Trade Imbalances
4.1 United States
The U.S. has run persistent trade deficits since the 1970s, largely due to:
High consumer spending,
Dependence on imports for manufactured goods,
Strong U.S. dollar attracting capital inflows.
4.2 China
China has maintained large trade surpluses through export-led growth, cheap labor, and government support for manufacturing. However, recent shifts toward domestic consumption aim to reduce dependence on external demand.
4.3 European Union and Germany
Germany’s trade surplus within the EU has created intra-European imbalances. Southern European economies (e.g., Greece, Spain, Italy) face deficits due to weaker competitiveness and higher borrowing.
4.4 Oil-Exporting Countries
Nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE run large surpluses because of high energy exports, while oil-importing nations accumulate deficits.
5. Economic and Social Impacts of Global Trade Imbalances
5.1 Impact on Employment and Wages
Surplus countries gain jobs in export industries, improving employment and wages.
Deficit countries lose manufacturing jobs, leading to deindustrialization and income inequality.
5.2 Financial Market Effects
Trade surpluses lead to accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and capital outflows (investments in deficit countries). For instance, China and Japan invest heavily in U.S. Treasury bonds.
5.3 Exchange Rate Volatility
Persistent imbalances can lead to speculative attacks and currency crises, as seen during the Asian Financial Crisis (1997–98).
5.4 Global Inequality
Trade imbalances contribute to inequality—both between and within nations. Workers in deficit countries face job losses, while surplus economies accumulate wealth.
5.5 Political and Geopolitical Consequences
Trade imbalances often translate into trade wars and protectionist measures. The U.S.–China trade tensions, Brexit debates, and WTO disputes all have roots in perceived unfair trade advantages.
5.6 Environmental Impact
Export-driven industrialization increases carbon emissions and resource depletion in surplus countries, while deficit nations outsource environmental costs abroad.
6. The Role of Global Institutions
6.1 International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The IMF monitors current account balances and provides policy recommendations to correct imbalances. However, its influence is often limited in large economies.
6.2 World Trade Organization (WTO)
The WTO enforces trade rules and resolves disputes, but its ability to address macroeconomic imbalances is constrained.
6.3 G20 and Multilateral Forums
The G20 periodically addresses global imbalances through coordination of fiscal, monetary, and structural policies, though implementation varies across nations.
7. Corrective Mechanisms and Policy Responses
7.1 Exchange Rate Adjustment
Allowing market-determined exchange rates can help correct trade imbalances:
Surplus countries’ currencies appreciate, making exports less competitive.
Deficit countries’ currencies depreciate, boosting exports.
7.2 Fiscal and Monetary Policies
Surplus countries can stimulate domestic demand through fiscal expansion.
Deficit countries can reduce public and private spending to cut imports.
7.3 Structural Reforms
Encouraging innovation, improving productivity, and diversifying exports can reduce dependency on specific trade partners.
7.4 Trade Policy Coordination
Balanced trade agreements and reduction of non-tariff barriers can promote equitable trade growth.
7.5 Promoting Global Savings-Investment Balance
Reforms to encourage savings in deficit countries and boost domestic consumption in surplus economies can gradually narrow imbalances.
8. The Future of Global Trade and Emerging Trends
8.1 Digital Trade and Services
As global commerce increasingly shifts toward digital platforms and services (e.g., cloud computing, fintech, AI), trade imbalances may take new forms unrelated to goods.
8.2 Supply Chain Reconfiguration
Post-pandemic disruptions have prompted nations to diversify supply chains. “Friend-shoring” and “near-shoring” could rebalance trade geographically.
8.3 Green Trade and Sustainable Economics
Climate goals and carbon tariffs are influencing trade flows. Countries investing in green technologies may reshape future trade balances.
8.4 Rise of the Global South
Emerging economies in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia are gaining prominence in manufacturing and resource exports, potentially reducing dominance of traditional surplus nations.
8.5 Digital Currencies and Trade Settlement
The rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) may redefine international payments, potentially reducing the U.S. dollar’s role and altering trade dynamics.
9. Case Study: The U.S.–China Trade War
The 2018–2020 U.S.–China trade conflict exemplifies the tensions arising from imbalances. The U.S. accused China of unfair trade practices and currency manipulation, while China defended its developmental model.
Outcomes:
Tariffs disrupted supply chains.
Global growth slowed.
Some production shifted to Southeast Asia.
Despite tariffs, the fundamental imbalance remained, reflecting deep structural differences rather than simple trade barriers.
10. Long-Term Outlook
10.1 Potential Scenarios
Gradual Rebalancing: Through policy coordination and rising consumption in surplus countries.
Persistent Polarization: If structural inequalities and protectionist trends continue.
Digital and Green Transformation: As new industries emerge, trade patterns may shift toward services, energy, and technology sectors.
10.2 Challenges Ahead
Political resistance to reducing surpluses or deficits.
Climate and energy transitions disrupting traditional trade flows.
Fragmentation of global economic governance.
Conclusion
The imbalance in global trade is not a simple arithmetic issue but a reflection of deep-seated economic, structural, and political asymmetries. Persistent deficits and surpluses distort growth, employment, and international relations. While globalization has brought prosperity, it has also created vulnerabilities that require coordinated policy responses.
Achieving balanced trade requires:
Cooperation among major economies,
Reforms in fiscal and monetary policies,
Fair trade practices, and
A transition toward sustainable and inclusive globalization.
In the 21st century, the challenge is not to eliminate trade imbalances entirely—since some are natural and cyclical—but to ensure they do not destabilize global prosperity or deepen inequality. A balanced global trade framework, grounded in fairness, innovation, and sustainability, remains essential for shared global growth.
Day 47 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Rested, Focused, ProfitableRecap & Trades
Day 47 — I finally got 8 hours of sleep, and the difference was night and day.
I was patient, calm, and focused from the start. I waited for clean signals, took only high-quality setups, and didn’t force a thing.
The result? A 14-trade win streak and +$6,250 across all accounts. No stress, no chasing — just clean, structured execution.
Lesson & Mindset
The biggest lesson today: you can’t trade well when you’re exhausted. Sleep isn’t optional — it’s a performance enhancer.
When your body’s recovered, your emotions are stable, your patience returns, and your focus becomes laser sharp.
News & Levels
Headline: The U.S. government shutdown is forecasted to last nearly 24 days.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6785 bullish, below 6765 bearish.
Profit-taking?Sellers came into the S&P 500 daily chart on Tuesday. This is a bearish structure but it can also imply profit-taking. The price action over the next two days will give insight in terms of longer-term behavior.
Day 46 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$1,452 | Fatigue & FocusRecap
Day 46 — not my best. I was running on low sleep, started patient, but missed the bearish flip and got caught buying at the 5-min MOB that didn’t hold.
TradeCopia started glitching too, opening wrong positions across accounts — that threw me off mentally and I lost focus.
Eventually, I stepped away, reset, and came back to trade the Gamma zone at 6747, which helped recover part of the losses.
Lesson & Mindset
Lesson of the day: fatigue kills awareness. When you’re tired, you hesitate, second-guess, and ignore the signals. Consistency requires recovery just as much as execution.
News & Levels
Headline: Oracle reported a $100 million loss tied to Blackwell chip rentals — a reminder of how tech volatility still drives the macro picture.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6785 flip bullish, below 6740 flip bearish.
Day 45 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$4,921 | Best Day YetDay 45 — one of my best days yet. After a big workout weekend, I came in with strong mental clarity. Right at 8:30, VX Algo flipped bullish, and I went long off the 9am MOB zone premarket.
Got stop hunted right after the open, but risk was small, so I reloaded on the next setup — a 5-min MOB long with confirming buy signals — and that’s where the day took off.
Lesson & Mindset
The lesson today: preparation and mindset matter more than anything. When your body and mind are in sync, execution becomes automatic.
News & Levels
Headline: AMD and OpenAI spark a wild tech rally as S&P 500 hits another record.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6765 stay bullish, below 6740 flip bearish.
How to Use The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in TradingViewMaster RSI using TradingView’s charting tools in this comprehensive tutorial from Optimus Futures.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most widely used momentum indicators in technical analysis. It helps traders identify potential overbought and oversold conditions, spot divergences, and confirm the strength of trends.
What You’ll Learn:
Understanding RSI: a momentum oscillator plotted from 0 to 100
Key thresholds: how readings above 70 suggest overbought conditions and below 30 suggest oversold conditions
Why RSI signals are not automatic buy/sell triggers, and how strong trends can keep RSI extended for long periods
Spotting bullish and bearish price divergences
Using RSI to confirm trends
How to add RSI on TradingView via the Indicators menu
Understanding the default inputs and how changing them affects the indicator
Example on the E-mini S&P 500 futures: how RSI dipping below 30 and crossing back above can highlight momentum shifts
Combining RSI with other analysis for better confirmation
Practical applications across multiple timeframes, from intraday trading to swing setups
This tutorial will benefit futures traders, swing traders, and technical analysts who want to incorporate RSI into their trading strategies.
The concepts covered may help you identify momentum shifts, potential reversal points, and confirmation of trend strength across different markets
Learn more about futures trading with TradingView:
optimusfutures.com
Disclaimer:
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting.
Stock Indexes Ride Momentum Despite Political RiskSeptember was a month of resilience for U.S. equities.
Despite fears of a government shutdown, mixed economic data, and cautious signals from the Fed, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones managed to hold their ground. Early in the month, strong corporate earnings and cooling inflation data fuelled optimism, sending tech stocks higher as investors bet on a soft landing.
But that momentum was repeatedly tested — hawkish Fed remarks and political gridlock triggered waves of volatility, trimming gains into month’s end.
By the final week, investors had shifted focus from fear to fundamentals: easing inflation, steady consumer spending, and falling yields offered just enough support to keep the rally alive. It wasn’t a runaway month, but the message was clear — Wall Street is learning to thrive in uncertainty.
A look at the MES1! (SPX)Chart Time Frame: 1 Hour
Current Price: 6763 after setting recent ATH at 6800
Daily Candle: Top Heavy Doji with open / close entire in the body of previous candle.
📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis
EMA 8 (thin cyan): ~6733 – Above price. Negative Slope.
EMA 21 (med cyan): ~6775 – Above price and EMA 8. Negative Slope. Rotation zone created on 1H and lower TF (EMA 8 crossed EMA 21). Crossover has not happened on higher TF's at time of post.
EMA 50 (thick cyan): ~6765 – Above current price; Flattening out.
Structure: Bullish Trending since April lows.
📈 RSI (14 Close) Current: 43 (57 MA)
Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weakening.
📈 MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD Line: 1; Signal Line: 4.2; Histogram: -3.2
Interpretation: MACD is growing bearish, histogram showing increasing intensity, yet still above 0.
🎯 Key Levels
Support: various possible trend lines shown (Purple). Price action Monday will determine their validity. Swing low at 6681.
Resistance: Overhead moving averages. ATH at 6800.
🧨 Volatility Outlook
VIX - After a decline, showing signs of inflection. Currently trending upwards on the daily TF.
Government shutdown and headline risk are of some concern to short term price action.
Short Term: A sudden opening of the government could certainly cause a bullish event. I could also imagine certain headlines that would cause a short term bearish event.
Longer term: govt shut downs have typically preceded bullish gains.
📈Macro/Fundamental Analysis
Interpretation: We are in between earnings seasons and with a Gov shutdown, void of Gov Data.
DXY - Pulled back significantly this year. I personally expect it to continue. This could provide a tail wind to equities pricing.
📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule
Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week
Wednesday - 3PM EST - FOMC Minutes. Dot Plot could cause some action as the minutes are dissected.
Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report. A big miss (up or down) could cause some action.
🔍 Summary
🔻 Trend: Long bull run - might be getting stale; Might just be getting started. You decide.
🧩 Momentum: Very high on longer TFs, Turning down on the lower.
🧠 Tactics:
Short Term - I love a 'rotation zone trade'. If price bounces back up into the EMA 21/8 spread zone, I would be looking for some day trade shorts.
MES (S&P 500 Futures) – Next Week Setup | 4H + 1H ConfluenceDescription / Analysis:
Here’s my structured outlook for MES (Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures) going into next week.
4H Chart Outlook
Trend: 4H structure remains in an overall uptrend (higher lows).
Reaction: Price has just tapped into a 4H POI (supply / major reversal zone).
Retracement Context: After rejecting from this supply, the market has started to retrace lower.
Key Levels:
i. 4H demand zones and OBs remain below (6,690–6,700 area).
ii. Major Bull Reversal Zone sits deeper at 6,670–6,690.
1H Chart Outlook
Trend: 1H shows a lower high and shift into short-term downtrend.
Confluence:
i. 1H and 4H fair value gaps overlap near 6,735–6,745 (likely magnet).
ii. Previous demand zones align below.
Plan:
i. Wait for price to test into 1H/4H overlap demand and observe for reversal.
ii. Entry refinement can be done on the 15M timeframe with BOS/CHOCH confirmation.
Trade Plan
1. Primary Setup (Bullish):
Entry: 4H + 1H demand/FVG overlap zone.
Confirmation: 1H reversal, refine entry on 15M.
Target: Fill 1H FVG zone above (around 6,780–6,790).
2. Alternative Scenario:
If price runs deeper into the Major Bull Reversal Zone (6,670–6,690), wait for 1H reversal and refine entry on 15M.
This scenario becomes valid only if lower demand is tagged.
Confluence Rules Applied
4H trend context is bullish.
1H confirms retracement and sets demand/FVG overlap zone.
15M provides entry timing.
Trade structure follows: BOS → Retrace → POI → Entry.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal market view. It is not financial advice. Please conduct your own research and use proper risk management when trading.
Day 44 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$2,542 Quick WinsI followed the bullish flips and buy signals right after the open, took longs, and hit profit targets quickly. There was also a clean backtest bounce at the MOB around 9:42. After those trades, I locked in +$2,542 across all accounts and stepped away for meetings — avoiding the noise and chop that came later.
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6755 = Stay Bullish
Below 6740 = Flip Bearish
📰 News Highlights
UBS RAISES GOLD, SILVER PRICE FORECASTS AGAIN
ES continuing with my short stratStructure is key when identifying direction. Overall trend isnt as important as you think. When trading reversals I look for large moves in one direction that allows for large moves back, I capitalize off of finding the structure shift and I enter only on discount. Watch your win rate increase when entering deeper into discount.
Trade for Christ
A market on airThe uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown is reflected in the daily chart of the S&P 500 which implies a market on air. This means it will not take much to move it to the upside or to the downside depending on how long it takes to resolve the government shutdown.
ES - October 3rd - Daily Trading PlanOctober 3rd - 7:22am EST
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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In our Daily Trade Plan yesterday, I wrote the following: "IF, price rallies above 6775 (Overnight High) and then comes back into this range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grab points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above."
Our first levels we were looking for opportunities at -
1. 6755 is a level that should have some liquidity to at least grab some points to the 6764 level.
2. 6744-46 could produce some points and any reclaim of 6755 would be bullish
2. 6737 is a level that could produce some points to retest the 6755 overnight low
What happened at the Open? We had rallied past the 6775 level, dipped back in and then sold off. There were some points to be had at 6755, but this happened pretty quickly and was when price was selling off pretty fast. I waited on the 6744 level. You can see my note at 11:10am on the Daily Trade Plan. Then price dipped below 6744 to 6741, squeezed and made a slow grind into the 6755 level. I said, IF, price reclaims 6755 that would be bullish. We reclaimed around 1:30pm and back tested in the overnight session at 6758 and have rallied since.
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Let's discuss today's plan!
The overnight session met another weekly target at 6788 our overnight high. The overnight low is 6758. Our immediate support is 6777, Ideally, we can get a dip down to test the 6772 level, reclaim 6777 and then rally to 6798, 6806.
Other area's we can look for points are the following:
1. 6772 test and reclaim the 6777 level to test the overnight highs and levels above.
2. 6758, flush and reclaim to take us back up the levels
3. 6737-39 flush and reclaim of 6741 to retest the levels
IF, price rallies above 6788 (Overnight High) and then comes back into this range after the NYSE Open, and ES starts to sell off fast, DO NOT try and RUSH into grab points. Wait for it to build a base at one of the levels outlined above.
Personally, I will not be chasing price at these levels and will be patiently waiting on price to come back to one of the levels outlined for an opportunity to take some points today.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
Market on Fire: S&P 500 & Nasdaq Rally Towards New HighsWe have a beautiful P-Shape volume profile formed at the top and we broke and closed above it.
The P-shape volume profile is bullish profile that is formed when large volumes are transacted at the highs meaning participants a willing to pay premium price . You can see the POC so close to the top of the VAH
I checked the CVD of the volume on a footprint chart and i see the volume has -ve Delta , which means alot of aggressive sellers transacted there trying to push the price down. Now that they are being squeezed slowly and start closing out their positions, it should fuel the uptrend. i entered the trade soon as we broke and closed above the value area.
Food for thought.. Who was willing to pay the high price to buy from the aggressive sellers?
DEFINITIONS
POC- point of control
VAH- Value area high
CVD- Cumulative Volume Delta
Target is the ExoFade area..Lets see how this trade goes
Positive movement to the upside is expectedThe structure in the daily chart of the S&P 500 implies continuation of the uptrend in a strong close going into the weekend. The upside objective is 6789.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Fri, (Oct 3)08:30 Employment Situation (NFP, unemployment rate, wages) is scheduled, per BLS release calendar. Note: multiple outlets report the federal shutdown may delay key reports, including payrolls—treat 08:30 as tentative.
10:00 ISM Services PMI (third business day @ 10:00).
Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)
Kill-zones (ET): London 02:00–05:00 (optional), NY AM 09:30–11:00 (primary), NY PM 13:30–16:00 (primary).
Stops: Hard SL anchored to the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts.
Targets: TP1 = major opposing level. At TP1: close 70%, set runner 30% to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. No trail before TP2.
Time-stop: 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts per level per session.
Acceptance Continuation — LONG (Tier-1 A++)
Trigger: 15m body-through acceptance above 6,788 → 5m pullback holds ≥6,782 and re-closes up → 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,784–6,788 reclaim.
SL: ~6,778 (below trigger wick).
TPs: 6,800 → 6,810 → 6,822–6,830.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≤6,782.
3) Quick-Reclaim Bounce at PDL — LONG (Tier-2 A+)
Trigger: Sweep 6,742–6,746, instant reclaim with 5m close back above 6,746 → 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,744–6,746 after reclaim.
SL: 6,737–6,739 (below sweep low).
TPs: 6,762 → 6,774 → 6,786.
Sizing: Tier-2 (¾ size).
4) Breakdown & Hold — SHORT (Trend/Acceptance)
Trigger: 15m acceptance below 6,742, 5m pullback fails ≤6,742 and re-closes down.
Entry: 6,740–6,742.
SL: 6,748–6,750.
TPs: 6,725 → 6,710 → 6,695.
Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≥6,748.
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Rejection Fade at PDH — SHORT (Tier-1 A++)
Trigger: First touch 6,786–6,788 fails; 15m rejection close back inside ≤6,782, 5m lower-high + re-close down → 1m LH entry.
Entry: 6,782–6,786.
SL: 6,791–6,794 (above rejection wick).
TPs: 6,762 → 6,746 → 6,725.
Invalidation: 15m body > 6,788.
PA Thoughts:
Overnight (Asia/London):
Looking at the base case rotation between 6,758 and 6,786. I’ll be fading the edges on the first touch of this range (Setups 2/3). A break and acceptance beyond these edges would open up potential targets—6,800 to the upside and 6,725 to the downside. If the Asia session pushes into the R2 and faces rejection, I’ll look for a lower high back toward S1. However, if we see acceptance above, expect a grind toward 6,800–6,810.
NY AM (09:30–11:00):
Depending on the 08:30 data release, be prepared for potential fast, one-sided movement. I plan to stay on the sidelines until we see a 15-minute acceptance at R2/S2, then I’ll execute Setup 1 for an upward move or Setup 4 for a downward trend. If the data comes in delayed or shows benign results, anticipate the first impulse to shift to 10:00, and I’ll apply the same acceptance strategy at the nearest edge.
NY PM (13:30–16:00):
If we hold above 6,788 from the AM session, I’ll target the 6,800–6,810 range and manage runners toward 6,822–6,830 as we approach the close. Conversely, if the AM session fails between 6,786 and 6,788, I expect to see lower highs towards 6,758 and possibly down to 6,746. A clean break below 6,742 would open the door for a slide to 6,725.
Day 43 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Fresh RecordsDay 43 of Trading Only S&P Futures is done — and despite fighting through the flu, I finished +$1,069 across all accounts.
The morning was tough with negative gamma and a few bad trades, but patience was the difference-maker. Once bullish structure aligned with positive gamma, I trusted my levels, bought the dip at MOB, and it worked out beautifully.
📰 News Highlights
DOW, S&P 500 AND NASDAQ CLINCH FRESH RECORDS
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6745 = Stay Bullish
Below 6730 = Flip Bearish
