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Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures

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Day 61 — Trading Only S&P Futures | Focused on the Grand CupRecap & Trades Day 61 — I shifted focus entirely to the Tradeify Grand Cup tourney account. Instead of trading multiple accounts, I traded larger — up to 2 ES contracts — and kept everything clean and simple. The morning structure was bearish, so I shorted early and caught 20–30 point moves before flipping at 10:40 for the reversal. Throughout the day, I played structure and gamma zones just like we do inside the VX Algo system. Lesson & Mindset Sometimes, focus beats multitasking. Trading one account with intention often leads to better results than juggling multiple screens. And when you scale up, you realize that discipline matters more than direction. News & Levels Big takeaway from today — Fed’s Daly said the October rate cut was appropriate and they’ll keep an open mind for December. That kind of language tells us the Fed is keeping optionality alive. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6910 bullish, below 6893 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DiYWALLST
ES QuantSignals V3 Futures 2025-11-03ES QuantSignals V3 Futures 2025-11-03 ES Futures Signal | 2025-11-03 • Direction: NEUTRAL | Confidence: 55% • Type: Index Futures | Timeframe: 1H • Volume vs Avg: 1.0× • Recent Move: +0.00% ⚖️ Compliance: Educational futures commentary for QS Premium. Not financial advice. 🚀 QS V3 ELITE FUTURES ANALYSIS Generated: 2025-11-03 13:43:52 ET Instrument: ES ($0.00) Type: Index Futures Trend: UNKNOWN Confidence: 55.0% Timeframe: 1H Model: QS + Katy AI Strictness: MEDIUM 🎯 TRADE RECOMMENDATION Direction: NEUTRAL - NO TRADE Confidence: N/A Conviction Level: N/A 🧠 ANALYSIS SUMMARY Katy AI Signal: Unavailable - Rate Limited Technical Analysis: Insufficient data - Current price $0.00 with zero volume/range data prevents meaningful technical analysis. No discernible trend structure or key levels available. Macro & News: Limited relevance - Eversource Energy earnings news has minimal direct impact on ES futures. No major economic catalysts or session drivers identified. Flow & Positioning: Incomplete data - Options flow shows neutral bias but all pricing data is $0.00. Volume and open interest cues unavailable for analysis. Risk Level: EXTREMELY HIGH - Trading with zero pricing data and unavailable AI guidance violates all risk management principles. 💰 TRADE SETUP Contract: ES Entry Price: N/A Take Profit 1: N/A Take Profit 2: N/A Stop Loss: N/A Position Size: 0 contracts ⚡ COMPETITIVE EDGE Why This Trade: No competitive edge possible without valid market data. Trading blind carries unacceptable risk. Timing Advantage: Current conditions offer no timing advantage due to data unavailability. Risk Mitigation: Complete avoidance is the only proper risk management when critical data is missing. 🚨 IMPORTANT NOTES CRITICAL WARNING: All market intelligence data shows $0.00 pricing, zero volume, and unavailable AI analysis. Katy AI is rate-limited, QS Analyst APP — 1:43 PM removing the primary directional guidance. Trading under these conditions would be purely speculative gambling. Wait for data restoration and Katy AI availability before considering any positions. The VIX at 17.17 suggests normal volatility conditions, but without price context, this information is unusable. --- QS V3 Futures Strategy System - Professional futures trading with Katy AI intelligence. QS Analyst APP — 3:01 PM ES QuantSignals V3 Futures 2025-11-03 ES Futures Signal | 2025-11-03 • Direction: SELL | Confidence: 68% • Type: Index Futures | Timeframe: 1H • Entry Range: $6891.74 • Target 1: $6729.11 • Stop Loss: $6987.26 • Volume vs Avg: 1.0× • Recent Move: -1.68% • ⚠️ MODERATE RISK WARNING: Consider reducing position size due to moderate confidence level. ⚖️ Compliance: Educational futures commentary for QS Premium. Not financial advice. 🚀 QS V3 ELITE FUTURES ANALYSIS Generated: 2025-11-03 15:01:41 ET Instrument: ES ($6884.00) Type: Index Futures Trend: BEARISH Confidence: 53.4% Timeframe: 1H Model: QS + Katy AI Strictness: MEDIUM 🎯 TRADE RECOMMENDATION Direction: SELL Confidence: 68% Conviction Level: MEDIUM 🧠 ANALYSIS SUMMARY Katy AI Signal: Bearish with 68.4% confidence, predicting -1.68% decline to $6768.42 Technical Analysis: Price at $6884 with negative recent move of -1.68%. Multi-timeframe conflicts noted with bullish vs SELL bias creating -15.0% confidence penalty. Key resistance at $6987.26 (stop level), support zones at $6729.11 and $6574.22. Macro & News: Limited immediate catalysts - Eversource Energy earnings analysis (HIGH impact 1h ago) but sector-specific. No major economic releases imminent, allowing clean technical play. Flow & Positioning: Volume at average levels (1.0x), options flow neutral with unusual activity at $2800 call strike. VIX at normal 17.17 indicating stable volatility environment. Risk Level: MODERATE - Multi-timeframe conflict poses reversal risk, but Katy's strong bearish signal provides directional clarity. 💰 TRADE SETUP Contract: ES Entry Price: $6868.51 - $6914.98 Take Profit 1: $6729.11 Take Profit 2: $6574.22 Stop Loss: $6987.26 Position Size: 2 contracts (moderate conviction with proper risk management) ⚡ COMPETITIVE EDGE Why This Trade: Combines Katy AI's high-confidence bearish prediction with clean technical Image levels during low-catalyst environment Timing Advantage: Entry during normal volatility conditions with clear resistance/support framework Risk Mitigation: Tight stop-loss relative to predicted move (1:2.3 risk/reward ratio), position sizing appropriate for medium conviction 🚨 IMPORTANT NOTES Monitor for any unexpected market-moving news that could invalidate technical setup. Multi-timeframe conflict requires close watch for reversal signals. Trade benefits from absence of immediate economic releases but remain alert to breaking news. 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: ES 🔀 Direction: 🎯 Strike: 2800.00 💵 Entry Price: 6891.74 🎯 Profit Target: 6729.11 🛑 Stop Loss: 6987.26 📅 Expiry: N/A 📏 Size: N/A 📈 Confidence: 68% ⏰ Entry Timing: N/A 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-11-03 18:01:38 EST ⚠️ MODERATE RISK WARNING: Consider reducing position size due to moderate confidence level. --- QS V3 Futures Strategy System - Professional futures trading with Katy AI intelligence.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by quantsignals
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Tue (Nov 4th)Bias & context Range-to-slightly-bearish intraday while price remains capped under 6,900–6,906. A clean 15m body close above that “gate” shifts bias to the upside toward 6,940→6,985. Lose 6,852–6,860 on a 15m body-through and the path opens to 6,805→6,756. The key levels remain unchanged. Setups (15m→5m→1m) Rejection Fade at 6,900–6,906: tag and 15m close back below → use the first 5m re-close lower and enter short on the 1m pullback; TP1 = 6,860, TP2 = 6,805, TP3 = 6,756; hard SL = 15m wick high +0.50. Acceptance Continuation through 6,906: 15m full-body close above → buy the 5m pullback that holds; TP1 = 6,940–6,955, TP2 = 6,968–6,985; invalidation = a 15m close back inside ≤6,900. Quick-Reclaim Bounce at 6,852–6,860: sweep and instant reclaim → long back toward 6,900 “gate”; if the reclaim fails, stand aside and wait for the body-through short. Exhaustion Flush Bounce at 6,748–6,756: only on a fast flush; first-touch responsive long back to 6,793–6,805; invalidate on a decisive 15m body-through below 6,748. Kill-zones (ET) NY AM 09:30–11:00 primary execution window; NY PM 13:30–16:00 continuation / reversal window. Calendar & shutdown check JOLTS (Sep) is scheduled for Tue, Nov 4 at 10:00 ET, but BLS warns releases may be delayed during the shutdown. Treat this as tentative. ADP National Employment Report (Oct) is Wed, Nov 5 at 08:15 ET and is unaffected (private release). ISM Services PMI (Oct) is Wed, Nov 5 at 10:00 ET and is unaffected (private release). Census/Commerce releases on Tue (Trade Balance, Factory Orders) are on the calendar, but federal data dissemination is paused under the shutdown; expect postponements. Major earnings Tue, Nov 4 (pre-market) include SHOP, UBER, PFE, SPOT, ETN, RACE, APO, MAR, TRI, ZTS, MPC, MPLX. Management: Instruction notes: only take plays where TP1 ≥ 2.0R using the 15m-wick stop. At TP1 close 70% and park 30% at BE; runner aims the next level. No trailing before TP2. Max 2 attempts per level per session.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Week 11.03 - 11.07 Prep Last Week : Last week we opened on a gap above Value and made a push over Edge top where we found our top and larger sellers for the week. Return to above VAL provided selling back into and eventually under the Edge. Holding under the Edge got us under MAs and changed the trend from uptrend to downtrend on 30m and 1h Time Frames, 2hr and 4hr frames only changed into correction without fully changing into downtrend. Holds under the Edge also provided good sells into lower VAH/Value for the gap fill towards end of the week when we got Month End profit taking but we were not able to fill the gap, instead we ran out of Supply Friday Midday and got end of the week short covering which drove price back out Value without filling the gap or staying in Value. This Week : So far this week we have again opened over Value and have been balancing between VAH and Edge in Globex, right now Edge again provided good sell back towards VAH and it may seem like it can continue selling but this will be the area to be careful at, at least to start the week as we are starting New Month, New week and it would be best to see what order flow we get, of course it is possible that we just continue lower right away but also this could be an area where we will see more covering above the Gap which can keep price over it and eventually once selling slows down could give another rotation towards/into and possible over the Edge. As mentioned last week we are currently inside 915 - 875 +/- Intraday Range with 900 - 890 being its mean and price can stay within this range until it accepts under 870 - 65 areas without popping back over 75 then we know we have accepted in lower Intraday Range of 870 - 830 and can continue through its targets which would be 855 - 845 Mean area and down into/towards 830 - 20s. If we do hold this current range we are in then it is still possible that it will bring more buying as buyers like to start getting in once price holds which could still push us up towards/over the Edge and maybe even back towards above VAL, how far over Edge we get would be determined by order flow IF it happens but this will be the spots to be careful on the long side instead of getting excited for new ATH or continuation over previous one even if we take it out. Our bigger sellers will still be lurking over the Edge and closer to above VAL which means if we see a push out we could either see a quick or after consolidation return back under the Edge. For price to change things back into stability or strength from here we would need a strong push over VAL with Medium/Larger MAs following behind us for support to be able to hold the price in/around new Value to show acceptance in New Hourly Range, unless this happens we have to keep thinking that top is in for now and look for return trips away from it which would make price want to return to previous Value. If we do get strong selling continuation today/tomorrow through 70 - 65 and keep it under then of course we will go with that and keep targeting the Mean/Gap fill and push under the Mean but unless you see clear selling under 70 - 65 careful looking for too much continuation from here early on, it might take few days to decide what we will do and get ready for a good move into lower Value which maybe happen either from above the Edge or once we hold under it long enough and change trend on 2hr and 4hr Frames.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
S&P 500 E-mini: Two Scenarios at Key Support and Resistance ZoneScenario 1 (Bullish): Price holds above the rising channel support near 6,810, supported by an ascending trendline on the 3-hour chart. A bounce from this level could push the market higher toward recent highs around 6,950. Scenario 2 (Bearish): On the 45-minute chart, price is testing the upper boundary of a descending channel. A failure to break above this resistance could trigger a downward move toward the key support zone near 6,810. Watch for confirmation of a breakdown to target lower levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by PropTradingAuthority
ES - November 3rd - Daily Trade PlanNovember 3rd - Daily Trade Plan - 7:15am *Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Last week price took out the prior week's low of 6865 and finished the day right at 6867. We gapped up last night and our overnight high is 6902 and our low is 6873 and closed the gap from the Sunday evening open. We still have a gap to be filled from last Sunday's open around 6824 area. Price is currently building a nice base at the 6893 level, and this is the same level that we had on Friday that broke out and then we sold off after the open. We can see that we have a lower low from Friday at 6843 and 6918 is the high. Technically, price needs to reclaim 6918 to continue higher. Key Levels Today - 1. Loss of 6893 and reclaim 2. Loss of 6882 and reclaim 3. Loss of 6873 and reclaim 4. Loss of 6867 and reclaim 5. Loss of 6851 and reclaim 6. Loss of 6843 and reclaim Below these levels and we will probably be selling off pretty hard, and I would probably let price find a support level below and build a base to move higher. Key Support Levels - 6893, 6888, 6882, 6873, 6867, 6859, 6851, 6843 Key Resistance Levels - 6902, 6908, 6914, 6918, 6923, 6930, 6944, 6953 As of writing this post, 6893 has been building a nice base that should give us a move higher, any price action that clears 6902 prior to 9:30am open, and then can't hold that level, we should expect price to potentially move lower. Let's see what happens at the open, but my general lean is that IF price can clear 6918, it should give us higher prices in the coming days. IF we lose, 6843, we will probably flush pretty quickly lower. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Successful Forex Trading1. Understanding the Forex Market The forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, across major financial centers like London, New York, Tokyo, and Sydney. Currencies are traded in pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, or USD/INR, where one currency is bought while the other is sold. Forex prices fluctuate due to various factors—economic indicators, geopolitical events, interest rate changes, and global demand for currencies. A successful trader understands that the forex market is influenced by both technical and fundamental dynamics. 2. The Foundation: Education and Knowledge Knowledge is the backbone of successful forex trading. Before risking money, traders must learn how the market works, understand price action, and study trading tools. Beginners should grasp basic concepts such as: Pips and lots: The smallest unit of price movement and standard trade size. Leverage and margin: Borrowed capital that amplifies both profits and losses. Bid-ask spread: The difference between the buying and selling price. Stop-loss and take-profit: Tools to manage risk and lock in gains. Reading books, taking courses, and following reliable market news sources like Bloomberg or Reuters can help traders stay informed. Continuous learning is vital, as market conditions and trading technologies evolve rapidly. 3. Developing a Solid Trading Strategy A well-defined trading strategy is what separates successful traders from impulsive gamblers. Strategies can be short-term (scalping, day trading) or long-term (swing trading, position trading). Some of the popular trading strategies include: Trend following – Identifying and trading in the direction of the market’s momentum. Breakout trading – Entering trades when price moves beyond key resistance or support levels. Range trading – Buying at support and selling at resistance during sideways markets. News trading – Capitalizing on price volatility during major economic releases. A successful trader tests strategies through backtesting (using historical data) and demo trading (using virtual money). This builds confidence before risking real funds. 4. Mastering Technical Analysis Technical analysis helps traders forecast future price movements based on historical data. It involves studying charts, patterns, and indicators. Commonly used tools include: Moving Averages (MA): To identify trends and smooth price fluctuations. Relative Strength Index (RSI): To detect overbought or oversold market conditions. Fibonacci Retracements: To identify potential reversal levels. Candlestick Patterns: To reveal market sentiment through price behavior. Technical analysis is most effective when combined with risk management and market psychology, rather than used in isolation. 5. Importance of Fundamental Analysis While technical analysis focuses on charts, fundamental analysis examines the economic and political forces behind currency movements. Key indicators include: Interest rates – Currencies with higher interest rates tend to attract more investors. Inflation and GDP data – Indicate economic health and purchasing power. Employment reports – Such as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, which can cause sharp volatility. Geopolitical stability – Political crises can weaken a nation’s currency. Successful traders often blend both technical and fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions. 6. Risk Management: Protecting Capital No matter how skilled a trader is, losses are inevitable. The key is to control risk so one bad trade doesn’t wipe out the account. Effective risk management includes: Position sizing – Risking only 1–2% of trading capital per trade. Stop-loss orders – Automatically closing trades at a predetermined loss level. Diversification – Avoiding concentration in a single currency pair. Avoiding over-leverage – High leverage amplifies both gains and losses. Successful forex traders focus more on capital preservation than on quick profits. As the saying goes, “Take care of your losses, and profits will take care of themselves.” 7. The Psychology of Trading Emotions are a trader’s biggest enemy. Fear and greed often lead to irrational decisions, like exiting trades too early or chasing losing positions. To succeed, traders must cultivate: Discipline: Stick to the trading plan and rules consistently. Patience: Wait for high-probability setups rather than forcing trades. Confidence: Trust in analysis and avoid self-doubt after losses. Emotional control: Accept losses as part of the process. Maintaining a trading journal helps track performance, recognize emotional triggers, and improve over time. 8. Using Technology and Trading Tools In today’s digital era, technology plays a massive role in forex trading success. Platforms like MetaTrader 4/5, cTrader, or TradingView offer real-time data, charting tools, and automated trading options. Successful traders also use: Economic calendars to track important news events. Algorithmic trading systems for consistent execution. VPS hosting to reduce latency for automated strategies. Staying updated with fintech innovations gives traders a competitive edge in execution speed and market insight. 9. Continuous Improvement and Adaptation The forex market is dynamic—strategies that worked yesterday may not work tomorrow. Therefore, traders must constantly adapt. Successful forex traders regularly: Review past trades to learn from mistakes. Refine strategies based on changing volatility or trends. Stay updated on global economic developments. Seek mentorship or community support to exchange insights. Flexibility and adaptability ensure that traders survive both bullish and bearish cycles. 10. Building Long-Term Success Successful forex trading is not about overnight riches—it’s about consistency, patience, and growth. The most successful traders: Focus on steady returns rather than big wins. Maintain discipline in both winning and losing streaks. Keep records of all trades for analysis. Continue to learn, adapt, and evolve with the market. They treat trading as a business, not a hobby—an enterprise requiring planning, analysis, and emotional balance. Conclusion Success in forex trading is a journey that combines knowledge, discipline, strategy, and self-control. It’s not about predicting every market move but about managing risks and maximizing opportunities. A trader who focuses on education, follows a tested strategy, controls emotions, and practices sound risk management can thrive in the volatile world of forex. The essence of successful forex trading lies in one rule: “Trade smart, not hard.” With persistence, patience, and proper planning, anyone can achieve consistent profitability and long-term success in the global forex market.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
ES (SPX, SPY) Week Ahead Analysis, Nov 3rd - Nov 7thMarket Context The price is currently positioned just below a key near-term resistance level at 6,900–6,906, following a sharp reversal on Friday from around 6,845. The daily and 4-hour structures indicate an incomplete "weak-high" area above, but the 1-hour momentum has just shifted upward from oversold conditions. As we move into the Asia/London sessions, I anticipate a balance formation within the upper half of the previous session unless we see a decisive 15-minute close above 6,906. Short — Rejection Fade at 6,900–6,906 Trigger: 15m rejection close back below the band → 5m re-close down with a lower high → 1m first pullback fail. SL: Above the 15m wick high +0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,880 → 6,860 (≥2.0R gate). TP2: 6,805. Notes: If a retest holds below 6,900, add on a fresh 1m LH. Short — Rejection Fade at 6,940–6,955 Trigger: Same 15m→5m→1m sequence as above. SL: Above the band’s 15m wick +0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,900 gate; TP2: 6,880–6,860; stretch TP3: 6,805. Long — Acceptance Continuation above 6,906 Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6,906 → 5m pullback holds and re-closes up → 1m HL entry. SL: 5m pullback low −0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,940–6,955; TP2: 6,968–6,985; stretch TP3: 7,020–7,052. Notes: If 6,906 holds as support on retest, consider scaling on a clean 1m HL. Long — Quick-Reclaim Bounce at 6,852–6,860 Trigger: Sweep/flush below the band and instant reclaim (1–3m), confirmed by a 5m re-close up → 1m HL entry. SL: Below the sweep low −0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,900 gate; TP2: 6,940–6,955. Long — Quick-Reclaim Bounce at 6,793–6,805 Trigger: Same reclaim logic; prefer fast tag → quick pop. SL: Below the 5m reclaim low −0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,860; TP2: 6,900; optional TP3: 6,940. Long — Exhaustion Flush Bounce at 6,748–6,756 (stretch 6,713–6,725) Trigger: Fast liquidation into the band + momentum divergence → 5m reversal close → 1m HL entry. SL: Below the exhaustion low −0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,793–6,805; TP2: 6,860; trail only after TP2. Short — Continuation Below 6,852 Trigger: 15m body-through below 6,852 that holds on retest → 5m LH → 1m pullback entry. SL: Above the 15m break wick +0.25–0.50. TP1: 6,805; TP2: 6,756; stretch TP3: 6,725. KILL-ZONES & EXECUTION NOTES Primary execution windows: NY AM 09:30–11:00 and NY PM 13:30–16:00. London 02:00–05:00 optional, reduced size. Asia optional, smallest size. Stops & viability: Anchor hard SLs to the relevant 15m wick; only take plays where TP1 ≥ 2.0R. Max two attempts per level per session. At TP1: close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trailing before TP2. WEEK AHEAD GAME PLAN If Monday holds above 6,860 and forms a higher low, the outlook is modestly bullish, aiming for a move toward 6,940–6,955 early to mid-week. A decisive daily close above 6,955 would suggest a rally into the 6,968–6,985 range, with the potential to extend further to 7,020–7,052 later in the week. Conversely, if the price falls back below 6,852, the scenario shifts to a mean-reversion week, targeting 6,805 and then 6,756, with 6,713 as a potential stretch target.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
$ES_F $SPX $SPY: The song remains the same This song remains the same, at least during Globex. Several bearish weekly candlesticks, including those for $ES_F, SP:SPX , and AMEX:SPY so far, are not hindering the intense chasing buying pressure. The uptrend remains intact as long as the 10-day simple moving average continues to provide support. The recent weekly Doji could indicate a possible pullback if today's closing price falls below 6843. It's important to note that the volume did not support the breakout above the resistance level at 6814 on October 25, resulting in a new ATH. In contrast, there was a higher volume on Thursday and Friday, both of which closed with red candlesticks. Additionally, the average volume over the past two weeks has been decreasing.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by OLIV2020
S&P 500 (ES1!): Bullish! Buy This Dip!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Nov. 3 - 7th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P500 is bullish, and buys are valid. Price is currently in a +FVG, so looking for sells is prohibited! If the +FVG fails, only then will buys become invalid. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by RT_Money
What is driving the market to the upside?You need to understand what is driving an asset market to the upside → to get a clear read if that driver has persitance & if it could reverse. You want to correctly know why something is happening... Where does CRYPTOCAP:BTC stand - lets dive in! Lets start with an example: What drove the crypto market so sharply higher in November 2024? Did something fundamentally change on a macro level? - no On November 6, Trump was elected — and it wasn’t even traditional markets that reacted, but mainly crypto. Crypto rallied aggressively purely on expectations surrounding the election anticipation of deregulation, potential pro-risk sentiment, “crypto-friendly” narratives, etc. But when Inauguration Day came and nothing specific materialized to further justify that optimism, the rally became unsustainable. The microstructure overheated, while macro fundamentals hadn’t changed at all. That’s exactly why the S&P 500 didn’t rally alongside Bitcoin — it was an expectations trade, not a macro shift. Then the first tariff news hit. That was a real macro shock. Trade relationships changed, growth expectations weakened — and naturally, the S&P started to fade. Bitcoin, which was already sitting on a fragile market structure, followed lower. This time it wasn’t just positioning — it was macro reality catching up: slower growth, tighter liquidity expectations, weaker global trade momentum. The market then crashed further on tariff expectations,until that pressure ended around April 7. From there, everything reverted sharply higher — because we’re still in a powerful credit-cycle expansion. Since then, the S&P has absorbed every piece of news that doesn’t alter the macro picture. Positioning unwinds get bought back quickly, and liquidity remains abundant. So where does all of this leaves crypto right now? Bitcoin currently has no internal reason to sell off aggressively. Macro still points upward — growth, liquidity, credit — all supportive. Only a real macro shift (not just noise) could sustainably push BTC lower, and if that happens, the S&P will fall too. Until then, BTC is likely just waiting for the next catalyst — whether it’s a genuine macro change, another wave of expectations, or simply a market-maker-driven breakout. Either way, as long as the macro backdrop doesn’t turn negative, it’s just a matter of time before Bitcoin resumes higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by The-white-goat
Trading Rejection Strategy- A Visual Backtest💡 Overview Here is everything you need to know about the strategy. But before you study it any further, all the visuals are at the end of this post- so don't miss that part. This setup is built upon simple beliefs: ▶Price always remembers its key levels- Previous Day’s High (PDH), Previous Day’s Low (PDL) ▶Strong support/resistance zones often act as liquidity magnets. ▶When price revisits these areas and fails to break through, it gives us a clear rejection and that’s where the edge lies. ⚙️ Core Conditions ➡Price rejects PDH or PDL ➡Price retests a breakout / breakdown zone ➡Price rejects a tested support / resistance level ➡Timeframe: 15-Minute ➡Type of trade: Intraday only ➡Only one trade per day 🎯 Trade Plan 🔘Entry: One tick above/below the Pin Bar or reversal candle close 🔘Stop Loss: Just beyond the high/low of the rejection candle 🔘Target: Next liquidity zone (recent 15m swing or PDH/PDL) 🚫 Avoid Trading When: ➡No rejection at liquidity levels ➡Risk > 20 points 📊 October Backtest Results (1 trade per day, tested manually) Total trades taken= 14 Winners= 6 Losers= 8 Total points made out of winner= 263 Total points lost in losers= 75 Net points made= 188 🧠 Takeaway Even though the backtest covers only October, the results are encouraging. The logic is built on price behavior around institutional levels, and that tends to hold steady across time. 📈 Try extending the backtest further: If results remain consistent, this could become a reliable rejection-based intraday setup worth adding to your toolkit. Here is a visual to guide to all the Entries, Exits and about how it went. Enjoy the charts and do let me know what you think about this strategy or if I missed an opportunity ;) 📣Disclaimer: Everything shared here is meant for education and general awareness only. It’s not financial advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Do your own research, manage your risk, and make sure you understand what you’re getting into.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Bravetotrade
4
S&P500: Rising?S&P 500 futures edged slightly lower in yesterday’s session but are expected to remain within the upward trajectory of magenta wave (5), which, under our primary scenario, is likely to continue moving higher. This advance would also complete the larger blue wave (III). Afterward, we anticipate a corrective phase in magenta wave (A), which should put renewed pressure on the index. At the same time, we are monitoring our alternative scenario, which suggests that magenta wave alt.(3) has not yet concluded. If prices drop below the support level at 6,371 points, this scenario will come into play. In that case, wave alt.(4) would likely extend further downward, reaching its low within the magenta alternative Target Zone between 6,055 and 5,822 points (probability: 30%).
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MarketIntel
Day 60 — Trading Only S&P Futures | 10-for-10 Green TradesStick around — at the end, I’ll break down the key levels I’m watching for tomorrow. Let’s go. Recap & Trades Day 60 — another clean session. We started the day with a bearish structure, so my plan was simple: wait for price to reach the 1-minute MOB and short it. Every trade lined up with VX Algo confirmations — short, lock profit, repeat. I was already up after the first few setups, and once I realized I was 10-for-10 on trades, I stopped. Lesson & Mindset This was a great reminder that it’s not about trading more — it’s about trading better. Consistency doesn’t come from being in the market all day; it comes from having discipline to stop when the job’s done. News & Levels The quiet story today — liquidity is draining from the system. US bank reserves just fell to $2.8 trillion, the lowest since 2020. That’s worth watching closely in the weeks ahead. Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6915 bullish, below 6895 bearish.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
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