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ES Futures (SPX) - Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups - Thu, Sep 26News & catalysts (ET) 8:30 — PCE & Core PCE (Aug) , the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. Market focus is on Core PCE ~2.9% YoY and ~0.2% MoM consensus. 10:00 — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final Sep) . Scheduled time confirmed by Fed speakers: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman in a 10:00 discussion; Fed Board’s Beth Anne Wilson remarks at 8:45 at a New York Fed conference. Earnings/overnight tone: Costco (COST) reported FY Q4 results Thu after close; headlines can sway retail/consumer sentiment pre-open. Nike (NKE) is due Tue 9/30 after close (next week). Bias: Base case: Two-way trade into 8:30, directional break afterward. If Core PCE ≤ 0.2% MoM or ≤ 2.8% YoY: risk-on; favor upside continuation through near-term supply toward 6700+. If Core PCE ≥ 0.3% MoM or ≥ 3.0% YoY: risk-off; favor sell-the-rips into 6630 → 6605 ladder. Secondary input 10:00: Michigan Sentiment can add a second impulse; weak sentiment keeps rallies fragile. PA roadmap Overnight: Expect balance inside 6655–6675 until 8:30. Liquidity likely pools above 6675 and below 6650 for the data sweep. NY AM (09:30–11:00): Trade the post-8:30 acceptance: continuation if 15m structure accepts beyond a zone; fade if we get swift rejection back inside. NY PM (13:30–16:00): Look for consolidation breaks toward untested AM extremes; avoid initiating inside mid-range chop. Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) A++ Acceptance Long (major) Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6670–6675, followed by 5m pullback that re-closes above. Entry: 1m HL after the 5m re-close. SL: Below the 15m trigger wick −0.25–0.50 pts. TPs: TP1 6705, TP2 6725, TP3 6760–6765. Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Invalidation: 15m body back inside 6670 (acceptance lost). A++ Acceptance Short (major) Trigger: 15m full-body close below 6655, then 5m pullback that fails and re-closes below. Entry: 1m LH after the 5m re-close. SL: Above the 15m trigger wick +0.25–0.50 pts. TPs: TP1 6631–6635, TP2 6605–6608, TP3 6580–6585. Management: Same as above. Invalidation: 15m body back above 6658.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Day 38 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$1,935 WinI’m trading one system, one ticker — S&P 500 futures — every single day for a full year. I journal every session to track progress, reflect, and sharpen my execution. If you’re serious about building consistency and treating trading like a business, you’re in the right place. Stick around — at the end, I’ll break down the key levels I’m watching for tomorrow. Let’s go. Recap & Trades Day 38 was different — I woke up late, wasn’t feeling well, and missed the morning’s big drop and recovery. Instead of forcing trades, I stayed patient on the sidelines. By the afternoon, DL and DD signals lined up beautifully. That’s when I stepped in, executed clean trades, and finished the session +$1,935. Proof that sometimes the best edge is waiting until the market gives you alignment.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
S&P 500: Rally Stalls, but Further Upside LikelyMidweek, the S&P 500 struggled to find the momentum needed to extend its climb within the magenta wave (3). However, our primary outlook still calls for this wave to reach a somewhat higher high. Afterward, wave (4) of the same color is expected to take over, guiding the index into the magenta Target Zone between 6,283 and 5,781 points. In wave (5), another upward phase is anticipated, which should ultimately complete the broader uptrend of the blue wave (III) at an even higher price level.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
1
ES - September 25th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 25th - 6:30am EST Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the weekly trade plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) Yesterday I posted on my 9:15am Note: "One thing to remember is that last week's high was 6731. We could easily open at 9:30am and pop above the 6728 to 6731-33 level and then sell off back inside the range and flush lower. Above 6733 and we should continue to back test 6741-44 level. This is a very tight range, and I would be cautious and not chase price. Only enter based on your edge. I will be following my plan! I really like the flush and reclaim of 6692-96 as our next level to find some liquidity." What happened at the open? We tested 6728 one more time, lost 6721, then kept moving lower. We bounced at the 6705 level, then sliced through down to 6685. At 11:57am, I posted the following - "We should get a short squeeze around this area. Watch for 6684-87 and reclaim of 6694." At 12:12pm we put in a perfect failed breakdown of the 6679 blue level on our chart. You can see on the 1 min chart that price tested the level, bounced, came back down and retested without losing the low, and you can then buy when it cleared 6682. On my 12:30pm - Update I wrote - "Price hit the 6679.25 blue level, back tested it and held. Then rallied. I bought a position at 6681 and sold it at 6691 and have a runner at 6683. I will move it up, IF, price continues to rally. Any pull back we need to hold 6684. That would be a possible entry, IF, you missed this move. I would not chase. Let price build structure from this short squeeze." At 12:57pm we back tested down to 6686 and rallied up to 6700. Yesterday was a great day for me and being patient and waiting for the blue levels to flush and reclaim is a gold mine when we have this level of volatility. I expect these types of moves to continue over the coming months. IF, you want to be successful in trading there are 3 main rules you have to obey. 1. NEVER SHORT ES - You make much more money with the short squeeze we saw yesterday at key levels than trying to pick when Institutions will sell. 2. Wait for the key levels to flush and reclaim and buy once you see structure and that price is not going to sell below that level once tested. 3. Sell at each level above. DO NOT predetermine how many levels price will go. Always, take profits when they are available. A good example of this was when I wrote the following yesterday at 1:12pm - "We back tested down to 6686 and then have rallied up and into some overhead resistances at 6697. I just sold my runner at 6697. Price can still keep going higher, but I wanted to lock in gains for the day, so I can be off my desk this afternoon. I had a great day, and it has been a great week. No reason to be greedy." Why did I sell at 6697? It was a key resistance on my chart. Did price sell off? Yes, it did. IF, I had held I would have lost out on the gains that I locked in. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overnight session high is 6705 and low is 6684. We have the White Trendline Magnet below at around 6670. My lean is we will flush 6684 down to the 6670, 6663, 6661 levels, and put in a nice bounce to back test the 6684 level and potentially higher. 6705 is the key level for bulls to reclaim to keep us moving higher, then 6731. Key Support Levels - 6684, 6679, 6670, 6663, 6661 Key Resistance Levels - 6697, 6705, 6711-15, 6731 My lean is we get a flush down to the white trend line around the NYSE open and retail traders will think we are going to go much lower and then we get a short squeeze. This white trendline has been tested 3x and might have one more good bounce left in it. IF, price cannot close the week above 6685, we could be in for lower prices next week. I will post an update around 10am EST. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Why Emerging Economies Are Driving Global ProfitsPart 1: Understanding Emerging Economies 1.1 Definition of Emerging Economies Emerging economies are countries transitioning from low-income to middle- or high-income status. They typically feature: Rapid GDP growth Increasing industrialization Expanding consumer base Integration into global markets Structural reforms improving business conditions Examples include China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Turkey, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Collectively, they form key groups such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey). 1.2 Why They Matter Today Emerging markets contribute over 60% of global GDP growth. They account for the majority of global trade growth. Hundreds of millions of people are entering the middle class, becoming powerful consumers. Part 2: Historical Shifts in Global Profit Centers 2.1 Post-WWII Era: Developed Market Dominance After WWII, developed nations rebuilt with the help of the Marshall Plan, became hubs of manufacturing, and dominated global profits. Emerging economies were peripheral, often tied to resource exports. 2.2 1980s–1990s: Liberalization & Globalization China opened its economy in 1978, setting the stage for massive manufacturing growth. India liberalized in 1991, spurring IT and service sector expansion. Eastern Europe joined global trade networks after the Soviet Union’s fall. This era marked the shift of supply chains toward emerging economies. 2.3 2000s Onwards: The Rise of Emerging Market Giants China became the “world’s factory”, exporting everything from textiles to electronics. India became the “back office of the world”, leading IT services and outsourcing. Brazil and Russia leveraged commodities to drive global profits. Southeast Asia became a hub for electronics, shipping, and consumer manufacturing. Today, multinational profits are increasingly tied to emerging market demand rather than just low-cost production. Part 3: Structural Drivers of Profit Growth 3.1 Demographic Advantages Young, growing populations in countries like India, Indonesia, and Nigeria fuel workforce availability and consumption. By 2030, emerging markets will account for two-thirds of the global middle class. 3.2 Urbanization & Infrastructure Development Rapid urbanization is creating megacities in Asia and Africa. Infrastructure investments—roads, ports, airports, digital connectivity—unlock new markets. Real estate, transport, and construction generate huge profits for companies. 3.3 Consumer Market Expansion Rising incomes = growing demand for consumer goods, services, healthcare, and technology. Emerging markets are becoming demand centers, not just supply bases. Example: India’s smartphone penetration skyrocketed due to affordable mobile internet. 3.4 Digital Leapfrogging Many emerging economies skipped traditional development stages and adopted mobile-first, digital solutions. Mobile banking in Africa, e-commerce in Southeast Asia, and super-apps in China illustrate this. These innovations generate new ecosystems of profit. 3.5 Global Supply Chain Integration Companies diversify manufacturing beyond developed nations into Asia, Latin America, and Africa. “China+1 strategy” pushes investments into Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. This integration spreads profits across emerging economies. Part 4: Sectoral Profit Engines 4.1 Technology & Digital Economy China: home to Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei. India: global IT services hub with Infosys, TCS, Wipro. Southeast Asia: booming e-commerce platforms like Shopee, Lazada, Tokopedia. The digital economy is a major source of profit, fueled by young, tech-savvy consumers. 4.2 Manufacturing & Industrial Growth China leads global electronics and machinery production. Vietnam and Bangladesh dominate textiles and apparel exports. India is growing in pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and electronics. 4.3 Energy & Commodities Brazil, Russia, and South Africa drive profits in oil, gas, minerals, and agriculture. Emerging markets are both producers (exporting raw materials) and consumers (fueling demand). 4.4 Financial Services Microfinance and digital banking in Africa and Asia empower new customers. Fintech innovation (UPI in India, M-Pesa in Kenya) creates profit opportunities. 4.5 Healthcare & Education Rising incomes = higher demand for private healthcare and education. Medical tourism in India, Thailand, and Mexico is booming. Emerging market pharmaceutical companies are gaining global market share. Part 5: Why Multinationals Depend on Emerging Markets 5.1 Revenue Diversification Western companies increasingly rely on emerging markets for growth. Example: Apple, Coca-Cola, and Unilever earn significant profits from Asia and Africa. 5.2 Scale of Demand Emerging markets offer hundreds of millions of consumers in a single country. Example: India’s population (1.4 billion) provides unmatched consumer scale. 5.3 Innovation Opportunities Companies innovate products suited for cost-sensitive, value-driven markets. Example: Tata’s $2,500 Nano car, or Nestlé’s single-serve sachets of coffee in rural markets. 5.4 Strategic Partnerships Multinationals partner with local firms for distribution, branding, and market entry. Example: Walmart’s investment in Flipkart (India). Part 6: Challenges and Risks 6.1 Political & Regulatory Uncertainty Sudden policy changes, trade barriers, and corruption can affect profits. 6.2 Infrastructure Gaps Logistics and energy shortages can constrain business growth. 6.3 Currency Volatility Emerging market currencies can be unstable, impacting corporate earnings. 6.4 Competition from Local Firms Domestic champions in China and India rival multinational dominance. 6.5 Environmental & Social Concerns Rapid industrialization raises sustainability challenges. Firms must balance profits with ESG commitments. Part 7: Future Outlook 7.1 Emerging Markets as Global Growth Engines By 2050, China and India together could account for nearly 40% of global GDP. Africa is set to be the next frontier, with a billion young consumers by 2040. 7.2 Green Energy & Sustainability Transition to renewable energy creates profit opportunities in solar, wind, and EVs. India and China are among the world’s biggest renewable investors. 7.3 Digital Transformation Artificial intelligence, fintech, and e-commerce will accelerate profit growth. Emerging markets are not just catching up—they are leading in many niches. 7.4 Multipolar World Order Emerging economies are shaping trade, investment, and geopolitics. BRICS+ expansion signals a new era of South-South cooperation. Conclusion Emerging economies are no longer “peripheral players.” They have become the epicenter of global profits, thanks to: Rapid economic growth Expanding consumer markets Technological leapfrogging Integration into global trade Yes, risks remain—political instability, infrastructure gaps, and volatility—but the profit story is undeniable. For businesses, investors, and policymakers, the rise of emerging economies is the defining story of the 21st century.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
ES-mini Futures - (SPX) Analyses for Sep 25Market drivers for Thu, Sep 25 (ET) • 8:30 — GDP 2Q (Third estimate) + Corporate Profits (annual update). Official BEA release. • 8:30 — Durable Goods (Advance, Aug). Census M3 advance report (release time 8:30 a.m. ET). • 8:30 — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). DoL weekly claims (standard Thu 8:30 a.m. ET cadence). • 10:00 — Existing-Home Sales (Aug). National Association of Realtors, scheduled for Thu 10:00 a.m. ET. • Fed speakers — Vice Chair Bowman: 9:00 a.m. (Economic Outlook) and 1:00 p.m. (Approach to Monetary Policy). • Treasury — Multiple bill auctions scheduled for Sep 25 (4-, 6-, 13-, 26-, 52-week). Watch rate/curve reaction around midday. • (Context) Atlanta Fed GDPNow next update Fri, Sep 26 (used by markets for GDP tracking). Risk windows to respect: 8:30 (data cluster) and 10:00 (housing). Avoid fresh entries ~5m before/after these prints; expect liquidity gaps. Overall bias & PA projection (overnight → tomorrow) Structure: Uptrend on higher timeframes, but near a weekly/4H supply cap ~6,76x–6,78x with a fresh H1 pullback printed. Bias into NY: Balanced-to-slightly-bullish if 6,67x holds. Below that, rotation toward the extension cluster 6,66x–6,64x likely before buyers try again. Overnight projection: Asia/London likely to range 6,68x–6,70x. A London stop-run under 6,678 that quickly reclaims sets the stage for NY bounce. Acceptance below 6,672 opens 6,659 → 6,640 → 6,619. NY session — A++ setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) Management rules (as usual): TP1 = next opposing MAJOR level; close 70% at TP1, leave 30% runner → TP2/TP3; hard SL = 15m trigger wick ±0.25–0.50pt; time-stop 45–60m; max 2 attempts per level. ES SHORT (A++) — Rejection Fade at 6,735–6,750 Trigger: 15m rejection close back inside the zone → 5m re-close down with LH → 1m pullback fail to enter. Entry: 6,740 ±2 (within zone after the 1m pullback). SL: Above the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,768. • TP1: 6,700 pivot. • TP2: 6,678–6,672 shelf. • TP3: 6,659–6,640 ext cluster. Invalidation / maintenance: Two whipsaws or a 15m body-through ≥1.0pt above 6,768 → demote/stand down; acceptance >6,768 flips bias to longs toward 6,78x. ES LONG (A++) — Acceptance-Continuation from 6,658–6,642 Context: High-prob “flush & reclaim” at the extension cluster before/after 8:30 data. Trigger: 15m full-body close back above 6,652, 5m HL + re-close up, 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,650 ±3 after reclaim. SL: Below the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,637. • TP1: 6,700 pivot. • TP2: 6,724–6,735 supply. • TP3: 6,760–6,770 (weekly cap). Notes: If the 8:30 print gaps price through TP1 immediately, manage fills but still honor runner plan; no trailing before TP2 per protocol. ========== London session game plan (02:00–05:00 ET) Base case: Range 6,678–6,700 with liquidity sweeps. Reclaim of 6,700 during London often fades back into the range; prefer patience for NY AM. Alternative: London sell program to 6,66x–6,64x → if quick reclaim above 6,652, that’s the Tier-2 bounce that feeds the NY long setup. Bear path: Acceptance <6,640 in London → prepare for a trend-day lower toward 6,619 unless NY reverses on data.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Day 37 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$1,559 Bearish BreakdownDay 37 of Trading Only S&P Futures is wrapped up with a strong green day — finishing +$1,559. The session didn’t start smooth. Running on 4 hours of sleep, I accidentally put in a buy order instead of a sell order at the 1-min MOB level. That mistake cost me some early profits, but once I flipped short, the bearish structure was undeniable. From there, it was all about riding the trend down — stacking shorts as sell signals and structure aligned. A strong reminder that even with mistakes, discipline and following the signals can still turn the day around. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6725 = Flip Bullish Below 6708 = Remain Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
Bulls Spring-Loaded After Bear Trap Test📌 To see my confluences and/or linework, step 1: grab chart, step 2: unhide Group 1 in object tree, step 3: hide and unhide specific confluences. 😊 The Market Participant Battle: Bears exhausted their ammunition at the 6,694-6,704 support zone (point 4), creating a proven set of market participants that bulls successfully defended. When price closed above the previous high (point 3 above point 1), it confirmed bears were trapped, establishing point 2 as the critical support level. The return to this zone at point 4 triggered a classic spring pattern where bulls absorbed all selling pressure, setting up for an explosive move higher. Smart money appears to be accumulating here while retail bears remain trapped below their stop losses. Confluences: Confluence 1: Hidden Bullish Divergence Power Play The hidden bullish divergence at point 4 is textbook - price printed a higher low while RSI and MFI showed lower lows, screaming institutional accumulation. RSI hit oversold precisely at the bounce point (26.82), confirming maximum pessimism when smart money was buying. The divergence across multiple momentum indicators (RSI, MFI) strengthens the signal exponentially, suggesting bears are fighting a losing battle against algorithmic buying programs. Confluence 2: Volume Profile & Market Microstructure The volume profile POC from the major low to point 3 sits exactly at point 4 (6,704 level), acting as a magnetic price attractor. This isn't coincidence - it's where the most contracts changed hands, creating maximum liquidity for institutional players to accumulate. The developing POC support alignment confirms this level as the new value area that market makers will defend aggressively. Confluence 3: Bollinger Band & OBV Explosion Signal On-Balance Volume (OBV) breaking below its lower Bollinger Band at point 4 historically precedes violent upward reactions. This extreme reading suggests panic selling into strong hands - the classic transfer from weak to strong participants. Combined with price testing the 2nd standard deviation of VWAP anchored from point 1, we have a triple-loaded spring ready to unleash. Confluence 4: Mathematical Price Structure The 1->2->3->4 pattern creates a perfect measured move setup. Point 4's reaction from the proven participant zone (point 2) establishes a risk/reward ratio of 4.56:1 with clear stop placement at 6,694. The mathematical precision of these levels isn't random - it's algorithmic market making at its finest. Web Research Findings: - Technical Analysis: S&P currently at 6,713 with strong buying pressure on weekly charts, testing resistance at 6,760. RSI showing negative divergence on daily but oversold on intraday - perfect storm for squeeze higher - Recent News/Earnings: Q3 earnings estimates revised UP 0.7% (unusual positive revision), with 50% of companies issuing positive guidance vs 43% historical average - bullish fundamental backdrop - Analyst Sentiment: Technical ratings show "Strong Buy" on weekly/monthly timeframes despite short-term neutral readings - institutions positioning for continuation - Data Releases & Economic Calendar: Fed cut 25bps on Sept 17 with 2 more cuts expected in 2025, creating liquidity tailwind. Initial jobless claims at 231k (below 241k consensus) shows resilient labor market - Interest Rate Impact: Fed funds now at 4.00-4.25% with dovish bias. Markets pricing in additional easing through 2026, supportive of risk assets despite inflation concerns Layman's Summary: Think of this like a coiled spring that bears just compressed to maximum tension. The Fed is pumping liquidity (rate cuts), companies are beating earnings expectations, and unemployment remains low - all green lights for stocks. The technical setup shows big money quietly buying while retail traders panic sell. When everyone who wanted to sell has sold (point 4), the only direction is up. The VIX at 16.64 shows low fear - perfect for a surprise squeeze higher. Smart money is betting on continuation of the bull market with this classic accumulation pattern. Machine Derived Information: - Volume footprint analysis: Buy-side absorption clearly visible at point 4 support - Significance: Institutional accumulation confirmed - AGREES ✔ - Multi-timeframe structure: Support zone respected across 1hr, 4hr, daily timeframes - Significance: Strong technical foundation - AGREES ✔ - Pattern recognition: Clean 1-2-3-4 accumulation schematic with textbook execution - Significance: High probability setup - AGREES ✔ - Fibonacci analysis: 61.8% retracement held perfectly at point 4 - Significance: Mathematical precision confirms support - AGREES ✔ - Indicator confluence dashboard: RSI, MFI, OBV all flash oversold reversal signals - Significance: Multiple confirmations reduce false signal risk - AGREES ✔ - Market profile analysis: High volume nodes acting as price magnets - Significance: Liquidity pools support bullish thesis - AGREES ✔ - Order flow visualization: Aggressive buying visible in footprint charts - Significance: Smart money accumulation pattern - AGREES ✔ Actionable Machine Summary: All technical analyses unanimously confirm the bullish spring setup. The hidden divergence across RSI/MFI, OBV Bollinger Band break, VWAP 2nd deviation test, volume profile POC support, and clean 1-2-3-4 pattern create an A+ technical setup. The machine analysis shows zero contradictions - every indicator points to the same conclusion: bears are trapped, bulls are loaded, and the spring is about to release violently upward. Conclusion: Trade Prediction: SUCCESS ✅ Confidence: HIGH This is a textbook accumulation pattern with institutional fingerprints all over it. The confluence of hidden bullish divergence, volume profile support, extreme OBV readings, and perfect mathematical structure creates an exceptional risk/reward opportunity. With the Fed maintaining its easing bias, earnings revisions trending positive, and VIX showing complacency, the path of least resistance is clearly higher. The 4.56:1 risk/reward ratio makes this a must-take trade for any serious market participant.
CME_MINI:ESZ2025Long
by jacesabr_real
ES - September 24th - Daily Trade PlanBefore reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the weekly trade plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) My trade plan is out later this am due to some family commitments. I will not be highlighting yesterdays, so please read it and review the real-time notes that I posted during the day. September 24th - 7:30am EST Overnight session high is 6728 and low is 6711. We have been moving up the levels in a very slow structured way since finding a low yesterday around 6701. Ideally, price will either continue to grind up and retest the 6741-44 area of where we sold off from, or we will need to retest overnight low or yesterday's low to flush and reclaim and move higher to back test the 6741-44 area. Key Support Levels - 6721, 6715, 6711, 6701 Key Resistance Levels - 6728, 6733, 6741, 6744, 6754 We are in a bit of a holding pattern, unless you have a low time frame entry strategy for a scalp. I personally do not see much to get excited about as price slowly moves higher into some key resistance levels. IF, price loses 6715 and can't reclaim it, then we will probably head lower to retest yesterday's lows. Since I DO NOT SHORT ES, I won't have any good quality setups until we get a pullback. I will be patient and wait for a flush and reclaim of 6711, but 6701 or 6697 would be a much higher quality area. Make sure you look at yesterday's sell off and plan. I wrote at "1:40pm - I would let price build a base. It could be here at 6710, 6705 or down at 6696. Give it time to build a base with a move lower like this. NO RUSH." We found structure at 6701 and it took us over 2hrs to build a base and chopped everyone around inside that tight 15pt range. I will post an update around 10am EST. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
VWAP/OR Setups & Macro Crosscurrents (Sept 24, 2025)The S&P 500 (MES1!) is currently in a volatile state as Wednesday’s trading session commences. Macro headwinds have dampened expectations for further rate cuts, leading to weakness in Big Tech yesterday. On the other hand, sector tailwinds have emerged, with Micron reporting strong Q4 earnings and Boeing and Palantir forming an AI partnership. These developments have generated after-hours optimism, supporting the performance of semiconductors and AI-related stocks. This volatile environment presents opportunities for scalpers. The volatility around VWAP/OR levels, coupled with liquidity-driven inflections, creates fertile ground for scalping. Chart Context (MES1! – 15m & 5m overlays): VWAP serves as a key pivot point, with multiple reclaims and rejections occurring overnight. The ORH stands at 6720.50, while the ORL is at 6719.75. As of pre-market, the VWAP is also at 6719.75. High-volume nodes at 6710–6722 act as scalp magnet zones. The overnight low at 6701.50 remains the downside inflection point. Scalping Plan: - Long bias above VWAP/OR breaks with volume. Target 6728 to 6735+. - Fade VWAP rejections back to OR. Quick 1–2pt rotations. - Avoid chop inside VWAP compression. Risk Management: - Use half-size into the open; scale only on confirmed breakout. - Hard stop: sustained trade below 6701.50. - Event risk: 10:00 AM New Home Sales, 4:10 PM Mary Daly speech. Takeaway: Scalpers should focus on reacting to market movements rather than predicting future trends. The ongoing debate between Powell and Micron is likely to lead to whipsaws in the market. Therefore, it’s crucial to adhere to VWAP/OR discipline, respect liquidity pockets, and let the market tape confirm the direction of the trade.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by TheFuturesPlaybook
ES (E-mini S&P 500) — Plan for Wed Sep 24Fundamentals (tomorrow, ET) 04:00 Germany IFO Business Climate (often moves European risk tone during London). 10:00 U.S. New Home Sales (Aug) — official Census schedule lists New Residential Sales at 10:00 a.m.. 10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (standard time each Wed). 13:00 U.S. 5-Year Note auction (can nudge yields/indices). Context: Yesterday’s U.S. flash PMIs showed slower but still-expanding activity (Composite 53.6 vs 54.6 Aug). Bias(HTF→LTF) HTF: Uptrend but near prior highs; Tuesday printed a lower-timeframe selloff into ~6,701–6,705 (confluence with D1 1.272 ≈ 6,705). Base case into London: Two-way trade inside 6,701–6,744–6,756 triad while Europe digests IFO. Two paths for NY: Acceptance ↑ above 6,756.5 → squeeze the weak-highs toward 6,765–6,770, then 6,798–6,800 (D1 1.618). Acceptance ↓ below 6,701–6,705 → trend rotation toward 6,690s → 6,680s (next liquidity shelves). London session game plan If Europe pushes up early: Watch 6,744. Failure there → rotate back to 6,711–6,718; clean reclaim → sets NY for a 6,756 test. If Europe bleeds down: Look for sweep & hold behavior at 6,701–6,705; loss of that area on 15m body-through tends to trend extend into the 6,69x/6,68x shelves before NY AM. NY AM (09:30–11:00 ET) and NY PM (13:30–16:00 ET) → full size, run the exact confirmations and targets I gave. A++ Acceptance LONG — above 6,756.5 Confirmations (15/5/1): • 15m full-body close above 6,756.5 (acceptance). • 5m pullback holds ≥ 6,754–6,756 and re-closes up. • 1m HL entry on first clean re-trigger. Entry: 6,756–6,758 on the retest (or continuation >6,760 after 5m re-close). Hard SL: below the 15m trigger wick or < 6,744 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is lower). Targets: TP1 6,765–6,770, TP2 6,798–6,800, TP3 6,901. Management: No partials before TP1; at TP1 close 70%, set 30% runner to BE; no trail before TP2. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level. Invalidation: 15m close back inside < 6,756 after entry that fails the 5m hold → cancel and reassess. ============= A++ Acceptance SHORT — below 6,701–6,705 Confirmations (15/5/1): • 15m full-body close below 6,701 (body-through the band). • 5m LH + re-close down on the retest of 6,701–6,705. • 1m LH entry on first pullback failure. Entry: 6,699–6,703 on the retest. Hard SL: above the 15m trigger wick or > 6,705 by 0.25–0.50 pt (whichever is higher). Targets: TP1 6,690–6,692, TP2 6,680–6,685, TP3 trail if trend accelerates. Management: Same rules as Setup #1 (TP1 70% + runner to BE; 45–60m time-stop; max 2 attempts). Invalidation: Reclaim on 15m back above 6,705 that holds → cancel the short. ⸻ Risk & timing notes • 10:00 New Home Sales and 10:30 EIA can cause abrupt spikes; favor entries after the first post-data 5m bar closes unless already in with cushion. • 13:00 5-Year auction can alter yield curve into the NY PM window; manage runners.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
4
What is Gamma?🔎 What is Gamma? Gamma Exposure (GEX) measures how much and how fast an option’s Delta changes as the underlying moves. Why does this matter? Because when options shift, market makers must hedge, and their hedging can move markets. Gamma = the “acceleration” of Delta. Large gamma zones = areas where market makers must hedge aggressively. These hedges often create temporary support or resistance levels. Think of Gamma as the invisible hand shaping intraday price action. ⚡ Why is Gamma Important? Market makers aren’t directional traders — they aim to stay delta-neutral. But depending on whether they’re in a positive or negative gamma environment, their hedges can either calm the market or fuel volatility. ✅ Positive Gamma Dealers are net long calls. Price Drop: They buy underlying to hedge → creates support. Price Rise: They sell underlying to hedge → creates resistance. Result: Market stays stable, moves are dampened. ❌ Negative Gamma Dealers are net short puts. Price Drop: They sell underlying to hedge → adds downward pressure. Price Rise: They buy underlying to hedge → adds upward pressure. Result: Market becomes unstable, moves are amplified (higher volatility, risk of squeezes). 📍 Key Gamma Levels to Watch Zero Gamma: Pivot point where hedging flows are balanced. Price often consolidates or pivots here. Major Positive Gamma Zones: Act as resistance (dealers sell into strength). Major Negative Gamma Zones: Act as support (dealers sell into weakness, but may cause bounces).
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by DiYWALLST
1
Day 36 — Trading Only S&P Futures | -$1175 LossDay 36 of Trading Only S&P Futures is in the books — and it wasn’t pretty. I started the session well, up about +$100, but got greedy and overleveraged at 6728 thinking Powell’s comments would flip the market bullish. I was wrong. That single forced trade cost me the day, dropping -$1175. To make things worse, I missed the chance to buy the actual bottom near 6702. If I’d stayed patient, today could’ve been a very different outcome. Lesson learned: don’t rush, don’t get over-reliant on gamma levels, and trust my own TA and the algo more. 📰 News Highlights S&P 500, NASDAQ pull back from records as Powell says stocks are overvalued 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6725 = Flip Bullish Below 6700 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:MES1!
by DiYWALLST
1
ES - September 23rd - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 23rd - Daily Trade Plan 8:40am Overnight session high is 6754 and low is 6744. We have been building a base to move higher to the 6760, 6764 and potentially 6776 levels. Since we have been basing in a tight range, I would like to see either a rally to the targets, then a failed breakout that produces a level loss of 6745 and pulls back to the 6733, 6725 or 6718 level, flushes and reclaims and then continues higher. Key Support Levels - 6745, 6733, 6725, 6718, 6712, 6696, Key Resistance Levels - 6754, 6756, 6760, 6764, 6776 IF, price does clear the overnight high before losing the low, then trades at the open back inside the range, we need to be patient and wait for a good level reclaim of 6745 or one of the levels lower. I know that price can continue to rally higher, but I would not be chasing. Make sure to take profits at each level above. I could see us get to 6764 and possibly pullback. I will post an update around 10am EST. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Couple of things about how I color code my levels. 1. Purple shows the weekly Low 2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post) 3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows) 4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest. 5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jhill1618
Introduction to Arbitrage in Global MarketsPart 1: Understanding Arbitrage – The Concept Arbitrage is a fundamental concept in finance that has existed for centuries, yet it has evolved significantly with the growth of global markets, technology, and financial instruments. At its core, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of price differences between markets for the same asset, security, or commodity. By buying low in one market and selling high in another, traders can theoretically make risk-free profits. Arbitrage is often considered a mechanism that helps maintain market efficiency. Prices in global markets are constantly influenced by supply, demand, and other economic variables. When a price discrepancy arises, arbitrageurs exploit it, which eventually brings prices in different markets back into equilibrium. Key Characteristics of Arbitrage Risk-Free Profit (Theoretical Concept): In ideal conditions, arbitrage is risk-free because it exploits simultaneous price differences. However, in real-world markets, transaction costs, taxes, and timing issues can reduce or eliminate these profits. Market Inefficiency Exploitation: Arbitrage exists because markets are not perfectly efficient. Price discrepancies may arise due to delays in information, regulatory differences, or market segmentation. Simultaneous Transactions: To be considered true arbitrage, the transactions must occur nearly simultaneously to avoid exposure to price fluctuations. Leverage of Technology: In modern global markets, arbitrage often requires sophisticated technology, high-speed trading platforms, and algorithms to detect and exploit price differences in milliseconds. Types of Arbitrage in Global Markets Arbitrage is not a one-size-fits-all concept. Over time, financial markets have developed various forms of arbitrage to address different market inefficiencies: Spatial Arbitrage (Geographical Arbitrage): This involves exploiting price differences for the same asset across different geographic locations. For example, gold might trade at a slightly lower price in London than in New York. Traders can buy in London and sell in New York, profiting from the discrepancy. Triangular Arbitrage (Currency Arbitrage): In the forex market, triangular arbitrage occurs when there is a price imbalance among three currencies. For instance, a trader might notice that the direct exchange rate between USD and EUR is inconsistent with the indirect exchange through JPY. By converting USD → JPY → EUR → USD, a profit can be realized. Statistical Arbitrage (StatArb): This approach uses statistical models to identify mispriced securities. Instead of relying solely on observable price differences, traders use historical data and correlations to predict temporary inefficiencies. It is widely used in equity markets and relies heavily on quantitative models and algorithms. Merger Arbitrage (Risk Arbitrage): In the M&A (Mergers & Acquisitions) market, arbitrage involves buying the stock of a company being acquired at a discount to the acquisition price and selling the acquirer’s stock if applicable. While profitable, this type carries higher risk due to regulatory hurdles and deal failures. Convertible Arbitrage: This involves trading convertible bonds and the underlying stock to exploit price differences between them. Investors buy the undervalued asset and hedge the risk with the other, aiming for a risk-adjusted profit. Regulatory and Tax Arbitrage: Different countries have varying tax policies and financial regulations. Some firms structure transactions to exploit these differences to minimize tax liability or regulatory costs. While profitable, it must comply with legal frameworks to avoid penalties. The Role of Arbitrage in Global Market Efficiency Arbitrage plays a crucial role in maintaining price consistency across global markets. By exploiting temporary discrepancies: It narrows bid-ask spreads in financial instruments. Encourages market integration, connecting local and international markets. Improves liquidity, as arbitrageurs provide capital and facilitate transactions. Reduces opportunities for persistent mispricing, making markets more efficient. Without arbitrage, global markets would suffer from persistent inefficiencies and price distortions. However, with the growth of technology and algorithmic trading, price discrepancies are often corrected in milliseconds, leaving very narrow windows for profitable arbitrage opportunities. Challenges and Risks in Global Arbitrage Despite its theoretical promise of risk-free profit, arbitrage in practice involves multiple risks: Execution Risk: Delays in executing trades across different markets may lead to losses if prices move before the transaction completes. Liquidity Risk: Some markets or assets may lack sufficient liquidity, preventing large trades without impacting prices. Counterparty Risk: In global markets, trades often depend on intermediaries. Failure of a counterparty can result in losses. Regulatory Risk: Different countries impose varying regulations on trading, capital flows, and taxation. Arbitrage strategies must comply with legal frameworks, or traders risk fines and penalties. Technological Risk: Algorithmic and high-frequency trading rely on robust infrastructure. Any malfunction or latency can result in missed opportunities or losses. Currency and Political Risk: For international arbitrage, currency fluctuations and political events can quickly erode potential profits. Global Examples of Arbitrage Forex Markets: A classic example is triangular arbitrage among major currencies (USD, EUR, JPY). Even small inefficiencies can generate millions in profit when leveraged across large volumes. Commodity Markets: Oil, gold, and agricultural commodities are traded globally. Traders exploit differences in local futures prices or spot markets to profit. Equity Markets: Stock exchanges like NYSE, NASDAQ, and LSE often have slight price differences for dual-listed companies. High-frequency traders exploit these micro-movements. Cryptocurrency Markets: With the rise of digital assets, arbitrage opportunities emerge across crypto exchanges. Bitcoin, for example, might trade at slightly different prices on Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken. Part 2: Strategies and Techniques of Arbitrage in Global Markets 1. Classical Arbitrage Strategies Even in the modern, high-speed trading era, many fundamental arbitrage strategies remain relevant: a) Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage Mechanism: Involves buying an asset in the spot market and simultaneously selling its futures contract if the futures price is higher than the spot price plus carrying costs (storage, insurance, interest). Example: Suppose gold is trading at $2,000/oz in the spot market, while the 3-month futures contract is $2,050/oz. Buying gold today and selling the futures contract locks in a profit, minus carrying costs. Significance: This strategy aligns spot and futures prices and reduces market mispricing. b) Reverse Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage Mechanism: Happens when futures prices are lower than the spot plus carrying costs. Traders sell the spot asset short and buy futures. Impact: Prevents futures prices from diverging significantly from spot prices, stabilizing derivative markets. c) Triangular Currency Arbitrage Mechanism: Exploits discrepancies in exchange rates among three currencies. Traders convert Currency A → B → C → A, aiming for a net gain. Practical Note: Most forex platforms now detect and automatically exploit small discrepancies, leaving minimal manual opportunities. 2. Statistical and Quantitative Arbitrage (StatArb) Modern arbitrage increasingly relies on data and algorithms. Statistical arbitrage differs from classical arbitrage because it: Uses historical price data, correlations, and probability models. Trades pairs of assets that historically move together but temporarily diverge. Example: Pairs Trading Identify two historically correlated stocks, say Stock X and Stock Y. If X rises significantly while Y lags, buy Y and short X, betting their prices will converge. Advantage: Market-neutral; profits even in volatile markets if divergence corrects. Tools Used Machine learning algorithms to detect anomalies. High-frequency trading systems for rapid execution. Risk management frameworks to prevent losses if correlations fail. 3. Risk Arbitrage (Merger Arbitrage) Mechanism: Focuses on corporate events, such as mergers or acquisitions. Strategy: Buy shares of the target company at a discount to the announced acquisition price and sell shares of the acquiring company if applicable. Risks: Deals may fail due to regulatory rejection, shareholder opposition, or financing issues. Example: If Company A announces it will acquire Company B for $100 per share, and B’s stock trades at $95, arbitrageurs may buy B’s stock hoping it rises to $100 upon deal completion. 4. Technology and Algorithmic Arbitrage Global markets are increasingly dominated by high-frequency trading (HFT) and automated arbitrage: Speed Matters: Price discrepancies may exist for mere milliseconds. Only advanced trading algorithms can detect and execute trades fast enough. Co-location Services: Many hedge funds place servers physically close to exchange servers to reduce latency. Cross-Market Monitoring: Algorithms monitor multiple global exchanges in real-time for mispricing opportunities. Example: Buying an undervalued stock in the London Stock Exchange and simultaneously selling its equivalent in the NYSE within milliseconds. 5. Global Commodity Arbitrage Arbitrage in commodities markets often exploits: Geographical differences: Prices of oil, gas, or metals vary by region due to local demand, transportation costs, and storage constraints. Time-based differences: Futures contracts may temporarily misprice compared to spot prices. Example: Crude oil may be cheaper in the Middle East than in Europe due to local supply-demand imbalances. Traders can transport and sell it at a higher price. 6. Cryptocurrency Arbitrage Cryptocurrencies present a new frontier: Exchange Arbitrage: Prices of the same cryptocurrency differ slightly across exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken. Triangular Crypto Arbitrage: Similar to forex, using three crypto pairs. Decentralized Exchange Arbitrage: Differences between decentralized and centralized exchanges can yield opportunities. Challenges: High transaction fees, blockchain confirmation delays, and regulatory risks can reduce profits. 7. Implementing Arbitrage: Key Considerations Even seasoned traders must navigate practical and operational challenges: Transaction Costs: Profits can evaporate after commissions, spreads, and taxes. Liquidity: Thinly traded markets can prevent large trades without moving prices. Currency Conversion: International arbitrage often requires currency conversions, introducing risk. Legal Compliance: Cross-border trades must comply with regulations, taxes, and anti-money laundering laws. Capital Requirements: Arbitrage often involves leveraging large amounts of capital to generate meaningful profits. 8. Real-World Examples of Arbitrage in Global Markets Forex Arbitrage: Major banks frequently exploit triangular currency arbitrage, though opportunities are brief due to automated trading. Stock Market Arbitrage: Dual-listed companies, e.g., Royal Dutch Shell in London and Amsterdam, present opportunities for price convergence. Commodity Arbitrage: During periods of supply disruption, oil traders profit from regional price differences. Crypto Arbitrage: Bitcoin and Ethereum trades across global exchanges illustrate how rapid price movements create opportunities.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
Day 35 — Trading Only S&P Futures | SPX Hits RecordDay 35 of Trading Only S&P Futures is complete! Today was one of the smoother days. We opened with a bullish structure signal and a clean backtest near the MOB. From there, the market ripped higher. I didn’t catch the full move but I did nail the initial push, which gave me space to step away for most of the day. Later in the afternoon, I tried shorting with a tight stop and got clipped. Reentered closer to 6755 resistance, and that short worked out well, closing the day +$849.90. 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6705 = Remain Bullish Below 6690 = Flip Bearish 📰 News Highlights The S&P 500 just ended at a new record for the 28th time this year.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
1