Trade ideas
Day 60 — Trading Only S&P Futures | 10-for-10 Green TradesStick around — at the end, I’ll break down the key levels I’m watching for tomorrow. Let’s go.
Recap & Trades
Day 60 — another clean session.
We started the day with a bearish structure, so my plan was simple: wait for price to reach the 1-minute MOB and short it.
Every trade lined up with VX Algo confirmations — short, lock profit, repeat.
I was already up after the first few setups, and once I realized I was 10-for-10 on trades, I stopped.
Lesson & Mindset
This was a great reminder that it’s not about trading more — it’s about trading better.
Consistency doesn’t come from being in the market all day; it comes from having discipline to stop when the job’s done.
News & Levels
The quiet story today — liquidity is draining from the system.
US bank reserves just fell to $2.8 trillion, the lowest since 2020. That’s worth watching closely in the weeks ahead.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6915 bullish, below 6895 bearish.
ES - October 31st - Daily Trade PlanHappy Halloween!
October 31st - 7:50am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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Yesterday we found the daily low at 6850. This happened right before the end of the day and rallied into 6893 area and overnight we have our low at 6888 with our high at 6906. We have tested 6906 2x overnight and as I write this, we are giving it another attempt. I have stated all week that 6708 is our bull/bear line. You can see that Institutions have been buying overnight at the 6893 level. IF price loses this level, we will have a chance to ride higher, IF price can reclaim this level. Ideally, we can flush 6888 maybe down to 6882 and then reclaim 6888 to move higher. IF price clears 6908, we need to hold it or flush it down to 6901 and reclaim quickly.
It is the last day of the month, and I think we continue higher today with 6914, 6923, 6930 being the first targets. IF price holds 6930 end of day, we could rip higher next week to kick off November.
Key Levels Today -
1. Loss of 6901 and reclaim (Micro Level Reclaim but might be all we get)
2. Loss of 6893 and reclaim
3. Loss of 6888 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6877 and reclaim
Below these levels and we will probably be selling off pretty hard, and I would probably let price find a support level below and build a base to move higher.
Key Support Levels - 6901, 6893, 6888, 6877, 6865, 6850
Key Resistance Levels - 6908, 6914, 6923, 6930, 6944, 6953
IF price loses a level and you are not able to enter, wait for price to find another key level above, build a base and allow that level to become support. Then find a spot to enter for a level-to-level move.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Fri (Oct 31st)Kill-zones (ET): NY AM 09:30–11:00; manage 12:00–13:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00.
Event (Fri): 9:45 ET Chicago PMI (unaffected by shutdown).
Upside continuation (LONG):
6,910 flips to support with a 15m close above → 5m pullback holds → 1m HL entry.
SL: 15m trigger-wick ±0.25–0.50.
TP1 6,928; TP2 6,945–6,955; TP3 6,980–7,000.
Quick-reclaim bounce at 6,889–6,888: sweep and instant reclaim → ride to 6,898 → 6,904–6,910.
Pop-and-fail shorts (SHORT):
Reject 6,904–6,910 then 15m closes back under 6,904 → 5m LH entry.
SL: 15m wick.
TP1 6,898; TP2 6,889; TP3 6,879.
Clean breakdown of 6,889 with a 15m close ≤6,887 → 5m LH entry.
TP1 6,879; TP2 6,865; TP3 6,845.
Management & risk
Viability gate: only take a trade if TP1 ≥ 2.0R using the 15m-wick stop.
At TP1: close 70%, set the 30% runner to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3.
Max two attempts per level per session.
Day 59 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$142 & Netflix Split Recap & Trades
Day 59 — started off strong shorting 6930 resistance right out the gate.
Those early plays hit perfectly, and I built up about +$300 in profit.
Later, I got a little greedy — took a risky end-of-day setup, got stopped out right before a recovery, and ended up finishing at +$142.
Could’ve been a bigger day, but I’ll take a green close any time I stick to the plan.
Lesson & Mindset
Sometimes the best win is walking away with discipline intact.
Once you’re up early, your focus should shift from “how much can I make” to “how well can I protect it.”
That mindset compounds long-term consistency.
News & Levels
Big market story today — Netflix just announced a 10-for-1 stock split.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6920 bullish, below 6875 bearish.
ES - October 30th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 30th - 6am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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Yesterday we had some afternoon volatility. Prior to 2pm EST we had a big battle at the 6930 level. This level was finally lost after FOMC and we sold off very quickly into the 6901, 6889 levels. This happened very fast and as I stated on my Daily Trade Plan that we were looking for the flush and reclaim of 6889, 6901 (6908 being the safer option). I did not take a trade in the afternoon but watching price action it would have been difficult without having a large stop loss in place.
At 5:30pm I wrote the following note:
"Price back tested the 6937 level we sold off from, and we need to hold 6908, 6894 in the overnight session. There is a bull/bear line at 6908 that was battled today. My general lean is that we need to continue lower to the 6864-67 level or close the gap at 6827 and then move higher. We are still in a bullish trend and nothing bearish changes the trend until we lose 6690. I think we can continue higher, IF price can flush lower, close the gap and then move higher and clear 6950."
What has transpired overnight? We made our overnight high of 6953 and have held the 6901 level. As of typing this post, we are currently at 6906 and about to test the 6901 level for the 3x overnight. We may get one more bounce here or we may lose the 6901 level and have to test the 6881 (yesterday's low). We still have a large gap below that needs to be filled.
My general lean for today is that we can lose 6881 and reclaim to move higher and back test 6901. This could continue us higher. Ideally, we would get a nice flush of 6865-67 levels and reclaim to move us higher. We could have both happen today.
Key Levels Today -
1. Loss of 6908 and reclaim (This is the bull/bear line in this range between 6881-6953)
2. Loss of 6901 and reclaim (Weaker level now)
3. Loss of 6881 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6867-65 and reclaim
Below these levels and we will probably be selling off pretty hard, and I would probably let price find a support level below and build a base to move higher.
Key Support Levels - 6908, 6901, 6889,6878, 6867, 6857, 6841, 6827, 6812
Key Resistance Levels - 6908. 6917, 6931, 6937, 6953, 6960, 6980
IF price loses a level and you are not able to enter, wait for price to find another key level above, build a base and allow that level to become support. Then find a spot to enter for a level-to-level move.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Thur (Oct 30th)Bias: Neutral → mild-bullish while 6,922 holds; momentum unlocks only on acceptance above the 6,966–6,972 pocket.
Setups — Rejection Fade (short): Tag 6,966–6,972 and print a 15m rejection close back inside, then a 5m re-close lower with a lower high, then take the 1m first-pullback fail. Stop = 15m wick high +0.25–0.50. TP1 = 6,940. TP2 = 6,922. Runner aims 6,885.
Setups — Acceptance Continuation (long): 15m full-body close above 6,972, 5m pullback holds and re-closes, then 1m higher-low entry. Stop = 6,966 wick. TP1 = 7,000. TP2 = 7,017. Stretch into low 7,040s if momentum persists.
Setups— Quick-Reclaim Bounce (long): Flush into 6,922–6,926 that instantly reclaims on 15m, 5m re-close confirms, then 1m higher-low entry. Stop = 6,916. TP1 = 6,940. TP2 = 6,966–6,972.
Setups — Breakdown Continuation (short): 15m body through 6,922 that holds below on a 5m retest. Stop = 6,929–6,932. TP1 = 6,900. TP2 = 6,885. Stretch 6,858 if pressure accelerates.
Management: only take a setup if TP1 is at least 2.0R using the 15m-wick stop. At TP1, close 70% and set the 30% runner to break-even; runner targets the next opposing major level. No trailing before TP2. Maximum two attempts per level per session.
Invalidation: Bull idea is invalid below 6,916 (loss of the AS shelf). Bear idea is invalid once there is 15m acceptance and hold above 6,972 with 5m higher-low structure.
Notes: Expect headline sensitivity. If we rip into 6,966–6,972 without a 15m close above, favor the fade. If we grind above and hold, ride acceptance toward 7,000 then 7,017.
ES UpdateNo rate cut in December? WHo cares? META missed earnings? Who cares? MSFT down after earnings? WHo cares?
The melt up must continue until the daily gets overbought, lol. Gotta set up for the China trade deal news.
You can see that the algos did sell some today, but futures are flat right now despite META miss.
Note: 30 year bond yields went back up to Sept levels because the December cut was priced in. Mortgage rates will actually go up, not down from this cut.
Day 58 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$304 & Easy FOMC GainsRecap & Trades
Day 58 — clean and easy.
We had some conflicting signals early, but once the structure aligned, it became a straightforward session.
The key takeaway today was how FOMC movement tends to cap between 30–60 points, which makes it easy to plan trades if you size stops properly.
Overall, simple setups, small size, steady gain — +$304 for the day.
Lesson & Mindset
You don’t have to trade aggressively to make progress.
Low-effort, high-consistency days are often where real edge compounds.
I’m learning that keeping your head calm on choppy news-driven days is what separates pros from gamblers.
News & Levels
Powell’s comments cooled expectations for further rate cuts, causing the Dow to fade late in the session.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6885 bullish, below 6840 bearish.
ES - October 29th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 29th - 6:44am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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Yesterday at 4:05pm I wrote the following note on the Daily Trade Plan "Price has come back down to the VWAP session price at 6922. 6917 is a good support level and any reclaim of 6923 should give us a chance to retest the 6930, 6946 levels. FOMC tomorrow and I do not anticipate price losing 6917, 6908 in the overnight session. Any flush of 6901 and reclaim should give us a nice opportunity for some points."
Overnight session low was 6922 and the overnight high is 6950. We bounced off 6930 around 5:30am and have been respecting this trendline all week. Today is FOMC & Big Tech Earnings after the bell. As I have mentioned many times in my trade plans that when ES sells off you need to just get out the way. October 10th, 13th, 16th, 22nd are the 4 big sell offs we have had this month. I expect another big sell off this week or early next week. The RSI is very extended and since we have end of month in 2 days. We could easily keep moving higher. I do expect some pullbacks for us to grab points over the coming days.
We could easily reach 6980 today or fill the gap of Sunday's open at 6827. That is how unpredictable FOMC can be. Usually, the first move after FOMC can be a trap. Either way, today I would not trade unless your edge presents itself. I will be trying to grab points before noon today if at all possible!
Key Levels Today -
1. Loss of 6930 and reclaim
2. Loss of 6922 and reclaim
3. Loss of 6901 and reclaim with (6908 being a level to be reclaimed for a safer entry)
4. Loss of 6889 and reclaim
Below these levels and we will probably be selling off pretty hard, and I would probably let price find a support level below and build a base to move higher.
Key Support Levels - 6930, 6922, 6917, 6908, 6901, 6889,6878, 6867, 6857, 6841, 6827, 6812
Key Resistance Levels - 6949, 6960, 6980
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
Day 57 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$27 & Staying DisciplinedRecap & Trades
Day 57 — a slower day, but still a win for discipline.
We had X7 sell signals flashing early, hinting at downside, but the market structure stayed bullish and DP buy signals kept showing up.
I went long near the MOB zone at 11:30, got shaken out on a quick drop at 11:35, and eventually decided to step aside. Closed for a small gain of +$27.50.
Lesson & Mindset
Sometimes the right play is to walk away.
When signals conflict, overtrading only leads to frustration.
Days like this are great reminders that trading small and reviewing later can be just as productive as hitting big wins.
News & Levels
Main headline — S&P 500 hit a new record high today ahead of major tech earnings.
Tomorrow’s levels: Above 6885 bullish, below 6840 bearish.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Wed (Oct 29)As we look at the current market conditions, the price is hovering just below the 6939-6946 resistance level. We should anticipate a test of this ceiling soon. A solid acceptance above 6946 on the 15-minute chart would likely trigger a movement towards the 6965-6975 range, which we can expect to see during the afternoon session in NY.
In terms of our range path, if we see rejection in the 6939-6946 zone, we will need to monitor for rotations between 6939, 6928, and 6916. A clean break beyond any of these levels will help establish our direction moving forward.
On the downside, a decisive 15-minute close below the 6916-6912 area could lead us back to the 6900-6896 levels. If that support fails, we could see a drop to 6892-6888, and then down to 6883-6880. Persistent acceptance below our S5 level would promote a further decline towards 6868-6864 and potentially trigger the gap references.
Lastly, I want to highlight that we should expect a compression-to-expansion behavior in the market. Thus, the first acceptance beyond R1 or below S0 will likely dictate the market's direction for the day.
Level-KZ Protocol (15/5/1). Execute inside London 02:00–05:00 (opt), NY AM 09:30–11:00, NY PM 13:30–16:00.
Working levels: R2 6965–6975; R1 6939–6946; MP 6928–6924; S0 6916–6912; S2 6900–6896; S3 6892–6888; S4 6883–6880; S5 6878–6874.
SETUP 1 — Acceptance-Continuation LONG (through R1)
Trigger: 15m close ≥ 6946, then 5m pullback holds above 6940 and re-closes; 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6942–6946 on the reclaim/HL.
SL: Hard SL below the 15m pullback wick (typically 6937–6939) ±0.25–0.50.
TP1: 6965–6975 (R2).
TP2: Leave runner only if momentum persists beyond R2 during NY PM.
Invalidation: 15m close back under 6939 with a 5m LH.
SETUP 2 — Rejection-Fade SHORT (at R1)
Trigger: Sweep into 6939–6946 that fails → 15m close back inside; 5m LH + 1m first pullback failure.
Entry: 6937–6943 on the fail.
SL: 6948–6950.
TP1: 6928–6924 (MP).
TP2: 6916–6912 (S0).
Stretch: 6900–6896 (S2) if acceptance forms below S0.
Invalidation: 15m acceptance ≥ 6946.
SETUP 3 — Quick-Reclaim Bounce LONG (MP)
Trigger: Fast flush into 6928–6924 that instantly reclaims on 1m and prints a 5m re-close.
Entry: 6926–6929 on the reclaim.
SL: 6923.25–6923.75.
TP1: 6939–6946 (R1).
TP2: 6965–6975 (R2) only after 15m acceptance through R1.
Invalidation: 15m close back below 6924.
SETUP 4 — Quick-Reclaim Bounce LONG (S0 flip)
Trigger: Sweep/flush into 6916–6912, immediate reclaim → 5m re-close.
Entry: 6917–6920 on strength back above 6916.
SL: 6911.50–6912.00.
TP1: 6928–6924 (MP).
TP2: 6939–6946 (R1).
Invalidation: 15m body-through below 6912.
SETUP 5 — Back-Inside Failure SHORT (under S2)
Trigger: 15m body close < 6896, then 5m retest of 6900–6896 holds from below.
Entry: 6898–6900 on the fail.
SL: 6903.00–6903.50.
TP1: 6892–6888 (S3).
TP2: 6883–6880 (S4).
Stretch: 6878–6874 (S5) — expect bounce attempts.
Invalidation: 15m reclaim ≥ 6900 with 5m re-close.
ES Daily Chart - Not Overbought YetLooks the ES is not overbought on the daily yet, so believe it or not, there's still room for a Fed pump or a China trade deal pump.
Wow.
I looked because futures are slightly green right now. Probably best not to short anything until after the Fed meeting. Watch out for China trade news Thu night.
Week 10.26 - 10.31 Updated after GAPSunday Globex gapped up and held over Value which when MAs caught up gave us pushes into upper Edge. Edge areas often act as reversal spots on first tests or after we spend time away from them which it tried to do today but we had good enough buying inside the Spike Base and smaller MA which took in the supply and gave a rotation out of Edge, as we saw price got into VAL and reversed without holding.
There really is no reason for this gap over the weekend and pretty much everyone knows it will be filled but what market showed us today is that we are not ready to come in to start the process for gap fill yet, we have no size operating up here with it being Month End and FOMC tomorrow, FOMC may shake things up BUT we may need to let market balance some up here around Edge and out of it before we can build up the supply and at the same time let MAs catch up to tighten up some to give us a better correction back in.
For now we can see price hold in and out of Edge with pushes towards above VAL and maybe even pushes into/over it BUT careful looking for too much continuation into new Value as we have sellers over the Edge and MAs are far which means any pushes towards/into/over could find their way back out of Value towards lower Edge and eventually once we have enough supply or Volume we can see a push back into/under lower Edge that wont come back out and instead either continue or start holding under to start the process to move for lower targets. For that we would need to be under 905 - 900 area or be able to catch good entry above the Edge and ride it in once market is ready for that.
To see acceptance in this new Range and see more strength we would need to see Medium MA catch up and get over the Edge to provide better support when price pushes into new Value so that it can push in and hold around VAL, until then Small MA acts as Support but it is not something to build big positions on. For now I will be focusing on reversal shorts until market can hold under Hourly MAs and under Intraday VWAP to give better continuation trades lower, I will most likely avoid longs here as they are very choppy and by waiting for good short entries eventually one of them will be the one that will take us back under the Edge and maybe even continue into lower Value so want to be ready for it unless we see strength inside this new Range and good holds over around above VAL.
We have month end coming up and FOMC tomorrow, FOMC is always important but Month end might be more of a mover this time around, being at ATHs so far extended away from MAs on Daily and GAP below we could see profit taking last few days which could give us the pressure to head back under the Edge which would also take stops to add extra pressure for when everyone will be trying to get out so will be watching for that either after FOMC or Thursday/Friday.
ES - October 28th - Daily Trade PlanOctober 28th - 8:30am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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Our overnight session high is 6917 (which we are coming into this area as I type this). We still have a massive gap that should be filled at some point this week. We have a lot of earnings, FOMC, Economic Data and Trump in Asia tour. It is also the end of the month with Institutions looking to keep price moving higher and trapping retail investors to fill their liquidity needs.
We are very extended on RSI with all time frames needing a pullback to reset and continue higher. We can sell off all the way down to 6810 and still be in a bullish trend. My lean is that we fill the gap and work our way down to the 6812-17 level and then continue higher. Ideally, we would sell off hard, scare retail investors, lose yesterday's low at 6867, reclaim and squeeze us higher. That could take a couple of days to do that, or we could get a rug pull any time.
Key Levels Today -
1. Loss of 6908 and reclaim
2. Loss of 6901 and reclaim
3. Loss of 6889 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6878 and reclaim
5. Loss of 6867 and reclaim
6. Loss of 6841 and reclaim
Key Support Levels - 6908, 6901, 6889,6878, 6867, 6857, 6841, 6827, 6812
Key Resistance Levels - 6917, 6923, 6930, 6946
We have to view price action as bullish until the trend changes. That would need a loss of 6720, 6690 to become bearish. Until then I anticipate the overnight gap closing, losing the 6812 level and reclaim would be a great spot, but we can easily move up with the loss of the key levels above and reclaims to grab points at.
In summary, IF price clears 6917 and then price can't hold 6906, we could flush lower. You can see the white trendline that has been respected overnight and below 6901, we are looking at 6889 to flush and reclaim. Below there and the loss of 6867 (yesterday's low) would be a great spot for some points.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Tue (Oct 28th)ES Context:
The trend is upward on the higher time frame, approaching a "weak-high" area just above the previous day's high (PDH). With FOMC Day-1 and consumer confidence news approaching, I expect the Asia and London sessions to trade within a range around or below the PDH, with a risk of a sweep and retest before any potential extension. The bias is slightly bullish as long as we remain above yesterday’s value area. The invalidation point is a 15-minute close below the previous day's low (PDL).
Setup 1 — Long above R1 (acceptance continuation)
Trigger: 15m full-body close ≥ 6912, then 5m pullback holds/re-closes above 6912.
Entry: 6913–6915
Stop: 6905
TP1: 6924–6930
TP2: 6965–6975
Cancel: if retest fails to hold above 6912.
Setup 2 — Short at R1 (rejection fade)
Trigger: Probe ≥ 6912 fails; 15m closes back below 6909; 5m LH re-close.
Entry: 6907–6910
Stop: 6917
TP1: 6900–6896
TP2: 6883–6880
Runner: 6878 → 6867.50 if momentum continues.
Setup 3 — Long from GMid (partial gap-fill reclaim )
Trigger: Wick into 6852–6855, then 5m reclaim ≥ 6856.
Entry: 6856–6858
Stop: 6848
TP1: 6867.50 (GTop)
TP2: 6900–6906
Setup 4 — Long from GBot (full gap-fill reversal)
Trigger: Fast tag of 6841–6842, then 5m reclaim ≥ 6846.
Entry: 6846–6848 on retest hold
Stop: 6836
TP1: 6854.25 (GMid)
TP2: 6867.50 (GTop)
Cancel: 15m body closes back below 6841.
Execution rules
Trade inside kill-zones only (London 02:00–05:00 ET; NY AM 09:30–11:00; NY PM 13:30–16:00).
Take a setup only if TP1 ≥ 2.0R versus the stated stop.
At TP1 close 70% and set 30% runner to BE; no trailing before TP2.
Catalysts for Tue, Oct 28 (all times ET; all listed items expected to proceed despite the shutdown)
09:00 — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (private release).
10:00 — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (private release).
All day — FOMC Meeting (Day-1) begins; Day-2 statement/PC tomorrow.
13:00 — U.S. Treasury auctions (notes/bills as scheduled).
FYI tomorrow (Wed): 10:30 — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status (on schedule).






















