Giving Back Profits - The Trap of 'Just One More'NOTE : This is a post on Mindset and emotion. It is NOT a Trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. If anything, I’m posting this to help you preserve your capital, energy and will so you can execute your own trading system with calm, patience and confidence.
The trouble doesn’t start with the win.
It’s what happens after the win that sets the course for the unwind.
Take this scenario as an example.
You finish the morning well in the green.
You are focused, composed in flow
And then the thought creeps in:
“Just one more”
“I’m on fire.”
“Let's make it count”.
That’s when strong sessions turn into regret.
What’s really happening inside you:
Thoughts: “If I’d sized bigger earlier, I’d have more.” “Stopping now is leaving money on the table.”
Feelings: Euphoria, Invincibility. Subtle disbelief that this winning streak could end.
Behaviours: Taking marginal setups, holding too long, over-sizing.
Body cues: Elevated energy, buzzing restlessness, almost addictive “high.”
Trigger: A profitable trade or session - the buzz of winning.
This isn’t opportunity. It’s the discomfort of stopping.
Your brain has just been flooded with dopamine - the chemical of reward and anticipation.
When you stop, that rush fades fast.
The body doesn’t like the drop, so it urges you to keep going.
It’s not greed - it’s biology.
Your system is craving the stimulation that came with the win.
The mind interprets that craving as “one more setup.”
But what it’s really chasing… is the feeling of being alive in the action.
Learning to sit with that energy, without acting on it is emotional mastery.
Mastery isn’t about cutting winners it’s about knowing the difference between pressing your edge and chasing the feeling.
One comes from clarity and alignment with your plan.
The other comes from chemistry and compulsion.
Both feel powerful in the moment but only one keeps you in the game.
Once you can see that impulse for what it is a chemical pull, not true opportunity the next step is learning how to regain control before it takes you off plan.
How to shift it:
Define the finish line: set a daily stop time or target and honour it. End when you said you would. Winning traders know when to walk away.
Reframe the win: Booked profits aren’t ‘missed opportunity’. They’re proof that you’ve followed your process and protected your edge.
Closure ritual: write: “Today I protected my edge.” Train your body and mind to link stopping with success, balance and composure.
👉 The market always offers “just one more.” The pros know: the real edge is keeping what you’ve earned.
Highlighting once again the post on Non Farm for anyone that missed it. The announcement is currently rescheduled for Friday 10th (due to the US Government Shut Down). Link below:
MNQM2026 trade ideas
NQ Range (10-06-25, Week 2)Churning in the Churn Zone, back at Mid Level (ML) of range. Watch the 2 yellow dash levels, break to upper/lower churn range is redirect or counter move. Example, White arrow range play stall at 425 should reject to start or lower yellow arrow. Reverse that should NAZ drop to the start or yellow arrow (unless it is the big one). Still favoring the SHORT side and not chasing any upward moves. Go Fed, Tweets, Next Stimulus, Wash ST Capital Management & Margin Services, etc. Just seems like the lift on fumes is good set up for the counter move (if you can play that, example Wash St Hedge Fund). Ya think? No, why not?
Is the Nasdaq a Bubble? A Technical Correction Is PossibleCME_MINI:NQ1!
Here’s a breakdown of the current Nasdaq correction scenarios based on the Nasdaq Futures (NQ1!) chart.
Every time I reached the top of the channel, an adjustment came out.
Based on the monthly chart, it has closed positively for six consecutive months since the tariff reduction, and it is judged to have entered the overbought zone by breaking through the upper Bollinger Band.
While a Santa Rally could still occur in Q4, we expect a short-term correction within one to two weeks.
Your follow and boost would mean a lot. 🚀
I am Korean and I used Google Translate.
NQ - SHORT SETUP [Trade of Risk – Counter-Trend Setup]Description:
Market retraced into a supply zone aligned with the 75% premium line after a clean breakdown.
This setup represents a counter-trend trade, with limited statistical edge but potential short-term opportunity if rejection confirms at supply.
Risk is defined above the inefficiency gap.
🔹 Bias: Short (counter-trend)
🔹 Zone: 25,095 – 25,125
🔹 Invalidation: Acceptance above 25,210
🔹 Comment: I don’t like retracement trades — winrate is lower, but R:R remains favorable.
MNQ (NASDAQ Futures) – Bullish Setup Plan | 4H + 1H ConfluenceDescription / Analysis:
This is my structured outlook for MNQ (Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures) for the coming week.
4H Chart Outlook
The 4H trend remains in an uptrend (higher lows).
Price has reacted from a 4H supply zone and is now retracing lower.
Focus is on the overlap between 4H demand and 1H fair value gap as a potential bullish setup zone.
1H Chart Outlook
The 1H trend has shifted into a corrective move (downtrend after BOS).
A clean 1H fair value gap aligns with the 4H demand zone below current price.
Plan:
1.Wait for price to reach the 1H/4H overlap zone.
2.Look for 1H reversal confirmation before considering entry.
3.Refine entry on the 15M chart using BOS/CHOCH and retracement logic.
Trade Plan
1. Primary Setup (Bullish):
Entry: In the 4H + 1H demand/FVG overlap.
Confirmation: 1H reversal signs, refined on 5M.
Target: 1H FVG zone above (around 25,050–25,100).
2. Alternative Scenario:
If price first dips into the Major Bull Reversal Zone (24,600–24,700), wait for a 1H reversal before refining on 15M.
Confluence Rules Applied
4H context provides bias.
1H defines the reversal zone.
15M provides entry precision.
Structure: BOS → Retrace → POI → Entry.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal view of the market. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research and manage risk responsibly.
NQ Open Gap UpdateStrange day, did not expect the premarket pump, otherwise I would have bought the puts this morning instead of yesterday afternoon. No big deal, I made money today.
I closed my puts at the top of the gap, and noticed that the gap didn't completely fill. (QQQ did, but I looked at other Nas futures, they didn't fill either.)
Does it matter? Just a couple of points? Looks like it does because futures are red. I did not re-enter into puts because sometimes the gap will fill overnight, then they can pump in the morning. However, I think RSI is gonna head to oversold, not going long until then.
ANyways, futures gap almost always fill. I think there was one this spring that did not fill. I was busy moving, so I didn't update that post.
Also, my MFI indicator doesn't seem to be working right now, or there's no money flowing into futures. That's bearish.
#202540 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-miniGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Bullish if we stay above 24900. Every dip is bought and on the 4h chart today is only a minor pullback. We still have daily new ath. Don’t get trapped as a bear. 24900 is around the bull trend line and that’s the latest I expect much more buyers than sellers, if bears even get there. 25000 should be huge support until we get a catalyst.
current market cycle: parabolic buy climax very late in the trend - I think we top out very soon
key levels for next week: 24300 - 25300
bull case: Bulls will likely buy this dip around 25000 and want a continuation of the accelerating trend. If bears give up again, we could very well see a gigantic blow-off top for 25600 or 26000. For now the upper trend line is still resistance but since bears can not even get close to the daily 20ema, another acceleration upwards is more likely than a bigger pullback, as of now at least.
Invalidation is below 24600
bear case: What would bears need to start a bigger pullback for the big bull trend line around 24100? A big catalyst. Bears can not even get two red days in a row, so we can not think too much about bearish scenarios. Bulls who bought every dip made money since April. Daily 20ema has not been touched since early September. Sure it’s overdone but that does not mean it can’t go another 1000 points before turning. Anything below 24900 would be a decent start but for now we can not expect this to just fall.
Invalidation is above 25300
short term: Longs around 25000 have been profitable since last week and only if bears could leave behind a big gap, we could move lower. For now bulls are still in full control.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-08-10: 22000 likely to get hit this year gain.
Nasdaq to 25,300? | Long Idea 10/3I believe Nasdaq still has room to climb, with the 25,300 range in sight to finish off the week. The price action closely mirrors the pattern from September 5th–9th, 2025, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see history repeat itself here.
I’m planning to go long from the 25,105 imbalance, holding through all-time highs and into the void through 25,300. Once ATHs are broken, I’ll trail my stop closely to lock in profits.
NQ 30-Min: Heavy Volume Zone Support at 24,680At 24,680, there’s a key support where buyers aggressively stepped in after sellers failed to push lower. This heavy volume zone marks the start of a new uptrend, and if price pulls back, I expect buyers to defend this area again with a strong reaction upward.
Nasdaq-100 | Textbook OB Rejection SSL Target Hit.Price swept the internal liquidity (TS 🐢) and tapped into a premium Order Block (OB), showing clear signs of rejection. This confirms a potential shift in market structure with bearish momentum building up. Alhumdulillah Target Hit✅️
🔹 Key Points:
Buy-side liquidity (BSL) taken before OB mitigation
Strong rejection from OB + Breaker Block (BB) zone
Market structure shift confirmed on 15m
Targeting sell-side liquidity (SSL) below recent swing lows
As long as price remains below the OB, bearish continuation is expected. Watch for short setups aligned with internal structure breaks.
Nasdaq (NQ) on Track for Higher Wave 5 FinishThe short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the Nasdaq (NQ) reveals a bullish cycle initiated from the August 2, 2025, low, progressing as a five-wave impulse structure. Wave ((i)) surged to 24,068.5. The corrective wave ((ii)) concluded at 23,025.25, as depicted in the one-hour chart. The Index then advanced in wave ((iii)) to 25,027.25. This wave developed as an impulse in a lesser degree, showcasing robust bullish momentum in the market.
From the wave ((ii)) low, wave (i) climbed to 23,902. A brief dip in wave (ii) stabilized at 23,505. Wave (iii) rallied to 24,816. A minor pullback in wave (iv) ended at 24,655. The final leg, wave (v), reached 25,027.25, completing wave ((iii)) in the higher degree. The subsequent wave ((iv)) correction unfolded as a double-three Elliott Wave structure, a common pattern in such cycles. From wave ((iii)), wave (w) declined to 24,627. Wave (x) recovered to 24,793.50. Wave (y) then dropped to 24,422.5, finalizing wave ((iv)).
As long as the pivotal low at 23,027.2 remains intact, the Index is expected to extend higher in wave ((v)). This outlook supports continued upside in the near term, consistent with the impulsive structure’s progression and market dynamics.
Final sell off ahead of FOMC | Head n ShouldersI believe price will stage one final sell-off before resuming its push toward higher highs. On the 4H chart, a potential Head & Shoulders pattern is forming, suggesting price may fill the hourly gap at 24,856 before or during the FOMC release.
The 15-minute chart offers a more precise entry compared to the 1H and 4H timeframes.
I plan to enter within the 25,149–25,150 price range, provided my bias remains valid heading into the New York open.
Lets get it!⚡
NQ UpdateI guess it doesn't matter that the gap below didn't fill all the way. Remaining gap is really small anyways.
MFI indicators seem to be working again, went overbought before market opened so the algos sold it off. Amazing how resilient this market is, they sold off everything (commodities, crypto, index futures) AGAIN, and everything seemed to have bounced right back up.
On Investing dot com, I'm showing a gap after the one hour break, but it doesn't show here so not sure if it's real. Tomorrow is probably gonna be a whipsaw day anyways, small caps are forming a pennant.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/3/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025
- PR High: 25107.75
- PR Low: 25073.00
- NZ Spread: 77.75
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls (cancelled due to gov't shutdown)
- Average Hourly Earnings
- Unemployment Rate
09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM)
- Session Open ATR: 266.47
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 284K
- Trend Grade: Long
- From BA ATH: -0.0% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 25204
- Mid: 23571
- Short: 21939
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone