RTY Small Open GapRTY has a small open gap from the Thurs 1 hr break that does not exist on NQ and ES.  Pennant breakdown also looks bearish.
ES did not go oversold on RSI last drop like RTY did, so maybe ES melts up and RTY doesn't?  Small caps can diverge from NDX and SPX.  Also, RTY didn't break out to a new ATH like the otehr 2 indices.
Trade ideas
RTY UpdateWell, my arrow was right, but I didn't anticipate the algo pump before the Fed.  The algos seem confused now because their pump and dump didn't work thanks to Powell.
Not sure if they complete the dump tomorrow or if they try to pump it back up for trade news Thu night.  Or Maybe both, lol.  Dump it until RSI and MFI hit oversold, then pump it back up, lol.  We've seen that before.
In any case, RTY moving off hours for the first time in a while.  Kinda strange they would try to do the China trade pump with small caps again considering the market sold of the pump in one day last time (Monday).
When Generals Run and Soldiers Nap — The Market’s Odd ParadeEver seen an army march where the generals sprint ahead, but the soldiers just yawn and stay behind?
That’s exactly what’s happening in the U.S. futures battlefield right now.
The ES, NQ, and YM — our large-cap “generals” — opened the week above their prior highs, looking ready for victory speeches. But the RTY, representing small caps, is still lagging like it hit the snooze button.
 The Breadth Problem 
Healthy rallies need everyone on board. When small caps don’t join the charge, it’s like running a marathon with only one leg — you might move forward, but not for long.
That’s why this gap between the big guys and the small ones is called bearish divergence — momentum without muscle.
 How Deep Could It Go? 
Under the surface, liquidity pockets (UFO supports) show the “landing zones” below price:
 
 ES: ~5% lower
 NQ: ~6% lower
 YM: ~9% lower
 RTY: ~14% lower (!)
 
Translation: if the market trips, the generals may bruise a knee — but the soldiers could roll down the hill.
 Tick, Margin, and Scale 
CME index futures come in two flavors — E-minis for the pros, Micro E-minis for precision control:
 
 S&P 500 (ES/MES): tick 0.25 → $12.50 / $1.25; margin ≈ $21K / $2.1K
 Nasdaq 100 (NQ/MNQ): tick 0.25 → $5 / $0.50; margin ≈ $30K / $3K
 Dow Jones (YM/MYM): tick 1 → $5 / $0.50; margin ≈ $13K / $1.3K
 Russell 2000 (RTY/M2K): tick 0.10 → $5 / $0.50; margin ≈ $9K / $0.9K
 
(Approximate numbers, educational only.)
 The Lesson 
Breadth divergences don’t “predict” the end of the rally — they just whisper: “Careful, this parade’s out of sync.”
So before chasing the next breakout, remember:
even the best generals can’t win a war if their soldiers stay in camp.
 Want More Depth? 
If you’d like to go deeper into the building blocks of trading, check out our From Mystery to Mastery trilogy, three cornerstone articles that complement this one:
 
 🔗  From Mystery to Mastery: Trading Essentials 
 🔗  From Mystery to Mastery: Futures Explained 
 🔗  From Mystery to Mastery: Options Explained 
 
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
RTY Daily ChannelThis is why I said there might be a melt up next week.  RTY has been in the same upward channel since the tariff tank.  You figure as bullish as this market is, it needs to hit the top of the channel in a breakout like this.
Will not be shorting IWM next week.  Long on shitcoin for the week based on daily indicators.
Since the market broke out, I think it'll be easier to buy the dips when MFI gets oversold on my 3 hr chart than shorting anything.
RUSS 2K....GOING WHICH WAY? HMMM CME_MINI:M2K1!  Bias-Bearish HOWEVER! 
Price is hitting some key areas and will show us whether it continues or dumps to key levels. 
PP-2522-2514 are fib zones in a FVG so price could most def push higher to the S.O.B above (which is what a majority of signs show). However my personal belief with all the negative news I believe we will have this week, price will take some of these lows out and find a B.O.B below. Thats a theory but like always we let price tell us the true trend and direction! Now what is your theory for this week? 
Either way, WE'RE GOING TO GET PAID!
RTY Premarket UpdateMFI is overbought on RTY, ES, and NQ.  VIX died last night so not expecting a huge tank unless CPI numbers are really bad.
I think I have a new rule now, TACO gaps don't need to fill, lol.  We had 2 previous TACO gaps in the spring that went unfilled as well.
We'll see what happens next week.
RTY Update - No TACO on ThursdayI keep saying that futures gap underneath needs to be filled, and small caps have the longest way to go to get there.  So I bought some IWM puts this morning, and decided to hold it even though it looked like a repeat of yesterday right after lunch.  I figured MFI wasn't oversold, and worst case, I just come out even, lol.
Holding the puts overnight, guessing we see a gap down tomorrow.  We probably get a bounce when RSI hits oversold.  Not gonna go long at this point until the gap below fills.  
Algos control the market and the talking heads just attach a reason to it.  They're blaming Dimon for his "cockroach" comment, lol.  Financials did take the hardest hit though.  Wish I had shorted XLF.
I think the gap below fills by next Friday, but I think you want to wait for a bounce before buying puts.   If we get the gap down that I expect, I'm flipping my puts on open.  We're gonna see some whipsaw tomorrow.
RTY UpdateWell, we got our pump and dump this morning, a bit earlier than I expected, but they made it so obvious it was hilarious.  Hope you made some money off of it.
It did go back up more than I expected, so this could be a melt up.  We'll find out tomorrow, I think we gap down because European market, especially DAX doesn't look very bullish.  DAX failed to break out, could come back down.
Looks like retail pump is over, I shorted KSS because XRT options have no liquidity.  There's literally zero visible bids.  I looked at it this morning and remembered why I don't trade it.  I guess they had to pump it because HD was way oversold.
Speaking of which, now that retail sector pump is over, I just noticed that they aren't pumping RTY as hard as yesterday (vs SPX futures ES) or maybe it's because of financials.
Trade War? No, we want TACO!  RTY UpdateSmall caps went full out into the TACO trade, they pumped the crap out of retail today.
The other indices are acting as if the gap below needs to fill, small caps totally ignored it.  That means it's got the most to go down if the gap does need to be filled.
Tomorrow looks like a pump and dump setup, RSI probably hits overbought, then reverses down.
Russell 2000 Futures (RTY) Advancing in Wave 5The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the Russell 2000 (RTY) indicates a five-wave impulse cycle from the May 23, 2025 low. Wave (1) peaked at 2296.5. Pullback in wave (2) corrected to 2146.8. Wave (3) surged to 2510.3, as shown on the one-hour chart. Dips in wave (4) formed a zigzag correction. Wave A dropped to 2448.5, wave B rose to 2459, and wave C fell to 2412.15, completing wave (4).
The Index resumed its rise in wave (5). Wave 1 reached 2468. Wave 2 dipped to 2424.7. This wave subdivided into a double three structure. Wave ((w)) ended at 2428.7, wave ((x)) at 2457, and wave ((y)) at 2424.7. The Index then advanced in wave 3 as an impulse. Wave ((i)) hit 2473.2. Pullback in wave ((ii)) corrected to 2448.5. Wave ((iii)) climbed to 2515. Wave ((iv)) fell to 2486. Final wave ((v)) peaked at 2518.5, completing wave 3. Wave 4 corrected as a zigzag, ending at 2464.6. As long as the 2412.15 low holds, dips should find support in a 3, 7, or 11-swing pattern. This suggests more upside soon. The Index remains poised for further gains if the pivot holds.
RTY UpdateNQ didn't quite finish the gap fill (see NQ1 plot I posted earlier), and I think all of the indices are going to hit oversold on RSI.  That's very bearish for RTY because it's going to break the upward channel shown.
Might still go long when RSI and MFI hit oversold, market usually back tests the channel line. Keeping an eye on Europe, especially FDAX (Germany), and playing it by ear.
All cash right now, no positions. 
RTY UpdateWell, I moved my stuff into storage, and sold my house in WA.  Gold looks topped out (or close enough that I don't want to play it any more), so I'm back in the stock market again.
I noticed today that a bunch of crap stocks like RH bounced today after a selloff the last week or two.  One that caught my eye today is AFRM.  They actually make money now, so I think it'll follow through nicely on the bounce today.  Bought some calls and stock mid day while it was in the bull flag.
The EUros are pumping the crap out of everything, so not gonna short anything.  Not to mention if they get a budget deal done over the weekend, you'll see a big pop Monday.  Both RSI and MFI hit overbought on ES and NQ on my 3 hr chart, but RTY did not hit overbought.  I think there's a good chance small caps get pumptarded with Europe breaking out since RTY hasn't hit all time high (ATH) yet. (Marked on chart)
Can't promise I'll post often, but I will post when I see something.  I don't recommend shorting anything until the budget deal gets done.  
The biggest indicator that the market is pumping crap stock is ARKK climbing, lol.






















