Trend breakout to the down side.Gold has been trading on a uptrend for a while on the H4 timeframe. It recently broke out to start a down trend. Currently it is trading under resistance which became a support area and heading towards 2,294.
MGCG2025 trade ideas
📉 Gold Futures Parabolic RiseThe black curved line on the chart is called a "parabola," as in "parabolic rise."
A parabolic rise tends to lead to a very strong correction.
The only way to sustained a parabolic rise is... Well, it is impossible, the Gold market fluctuates between up and down.
The peak, ATH, happened on the 8-April weekly session.
This session ended with a long upper shadow followed by a local lower high.
The whole chart structure has bearish potential.
I am here trying to predict a reversal, which is something very hard to do.
In order to predict a change of trend, we always have to jump in when things are not looking the best.
By the time the signals are clear and confirmed, Gold will be trading at $2,300 or below $2,250. I personally wouldn't wait for those.
➖ Some people trade the breakout with low risk;
➖ Some people trade before the breakout with a tight stop-loss and still very low risk but a higher potential for reward.
What you choose, is up to you.
My mission is to alert of the move before it comes.
After the bearish comes a bullish wave.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
Gold Continues Higher . . . Look for Small PullbackWhere are we today? We are in a rising wedge . . . and there is a risk that gold eventually breaks this primary trend levels . . . but, if past is prologue, then we should see a 15 minute retracement into our next buy at the 4 hour HWB long setup. . . around 2391-2393.6 area.
GOLD Price Stability Amid Rising Global TensionsOn Tuesday, the price of gold stabilized as mounting geopolitical tensions spurred demand for the safe-haven asset.
Escalating protests against Israel’s presence in Gaza, Russia’s initiation of a new conflict in Ukraine, and concerns regarding potential disruptions in global trade have heightened the perception of geopolitical risk.
The decision by BRICS nations to reduce reliance on the US Dollar for international trade transactions has bolstered interest in gold as an alternative. Consequently, there has been a notable increase in non-Western central banks' demand for gold, accompanied by a corresponding decrease in US Dollar reserves.
Gold is being considered as a viable substitute for the US Dollar as a secure store of value in international trade agreements involving nations with volatile domestic currencies, as per insights from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based advisory service.
From a technical standpoint, analysis of the H4 timeframe reveals a divergence in the cumulative delta, with the preceding candle exhibiting a negative cumulative delta while the current candle shows a positive delta. The previous candle effectively absorbed all inefficiency orders from sellers, forming an absorption candle characterized by a long spike, while the current candle is endeavoring to elevate buyer volume. There is potential for the current candle to retest the previous candle's point of control (POC) to attract new buyers at a discounted rate. Our strategy revolves around a long setup with a target aimed at the previous fair value area.
Gold versus SilverGold versus silver hitting a massive support area at 75.
This is why silver's ascent is halting versus gold.
#gold #silver
GC1!_Short-Term TrendGold could get one more poke into the green box extension area noted on the chart, but as price continuously tries to confuse us, I actually think a c wave subdivision of the Minuette (v) Ending Diagonal is likely and warranted, here. I have zoomed out to show some fib confluence at the top end, some of which is already set, and some of which is speculative. I believe these waves, though, are the parameters of the completion of Minor wave C of Intermediate (5).
Selling is done in GOLD?2258 support held, but 2340 is now offering resistance. We have Buyers pushing the prices up for sure, see the GREEN UMVD started last week. We have gREEN Bars but TrapZOne is still RED>
GoldThis not a trading signal, this is just my opinion and if you copy my trade the risk is on you.
Gold on the daily chart , is @ resistance retesting the previous highs before pulling back to the support levels around $2,353 therefore im entering 2 trades ( one Selling to the support level, and other is ( Buying to continue with the up trend aiming for newer high.
2024-05-20 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Gold
comment: Another triangle 2412 - 2440 which I expect to break down below and we get a second leg down. The measured move target is 2375, coincidences… Besides that, bulls got the 2450 and market showed bigger rejection again. Bears need follow through below 2400 now.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2300 - 2450
bull case: Bulls have all arguments on their side, as long as the bull trend lines are intact and they trade far above the daily 20ema. . They probably want another retest 2450 tomorrow and some higher to make the bears who sold 2450 today, cover. Obvious target above 2450 is 2500, invalid below 2400.
bear case: Bears sold-off for 40 points from the highs but the follow through was not good enough. I think the lower high is reasonable here to expect a bigger second leg down to 2375. So right now they need to keep this a lower high and break the first bull trend line around 2420 for a test of 2400. Invalid above 2445.
short term: Sideways, then down - Invalid above 2443
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged
current swing trade: Shorted 2429 for target 2375, sl 2443
trade of the day: Short 2450 - rejection was good enough and bears got follow through
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldGood Morning and I hope you are well.
This is my weekly outlook, written yesterday evening. So market already made the new ath and now I wait to see if they want to squeeze higher or we hit a hard wall for big players to continue to unload.
gold futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: 2285 was the low last Friday and this week held above it and my two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick for the A and the B leg and C was only short 20 points. So I gave you perfect 50 points up, 20 points down and another 50 points up. Hope you made some. Bulls are in clear control and until bears break strongly below 2300 again, we are on our way to retest 2448.
comment: 3 clear pushes up and still not near 2450, which is not as bullish as it could be but it’s still only going up so naturally I look for longs. Market probably will not stop until we print 2445 or 2450 but the recent pull-backs went on long and deep enough for me to think the upside is probably limited.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2290 - 2450
bull case: Bulls continue inside the wedge and buy every dip they get. 2450 obvious magnet above. I won’t make this longer than it has to be. Weekly and monthly charts also just give bullish signals for this. This month is still an inside bar on the monthly chart, so if bears keep this as a lower high, odds favor trading back down to around 2320
bear case: All highs in this bull wedge were sold and we already had 3 clear pushes up. Bears will probably get a pull-back on Monday and then market has to decide if it want’s another try at 2450 or higher. First bear target is a retest of the breakout 2400 and then the 4h 20ema around 2390.
outlook last week: “Neutral until clear break of the given range. —unchanged”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2375 and now we are at 2417. No opinion last week.
short term: Small pull-back before another test of 2348 or higher. Invalid below 2370.
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged
Chart update: Removed bear flag. Added bull wedge.
5/12 | $GCWas expecting a dip, however we ripped out of the bull flag. New path of interest will be taking new highs before a buyable dip. That's where I will be interested in playing again.
GOLD Futures: H4 Footprint Insights and Daily Chart DynamicsGold Futures Footprint Analysis on the H4 Timeframe reveals an intriguing market dynamic. Monday's opening saw a bearish candle, characterized by a spike that retraced to the previous Point of Control (POC) volume of the preceding candle. This retracement occurred concurrently with a block of previous bullish orders (513+535), suggesting a potential area of resistance. Despite the presence of sellers, there appears to be a notable imbalance favoring buyers, indicating underlying support for a price increase.
Although the Delta reflects a bearish sentiment, the sellers' efforts do not seem to exert a significant downward pressure on price movement. This phenomenon aligns with a classic interpretation of price action in CFD trading, commonly referred to as a "retest."
Zooming out to the daily chart, we observe that buyer volume slightly surpasses that of sellers, accompanied by a lower Delta compared to the previous candle. This discrepancy implies that a relatively small effort from buyers may yield significant results. Moreover, the POC on the daily chart currently resides on the upper side of the candle, indicating that the majority of transactions or market battles are occurring at higher price levels. This observation further strengthens the case for a bullish continuation.
In summary, the Footprint Analysis highlights a nuanced interplay between buyers and sellers in the Gold Futures market. Despite initial bearish signals, the presence of buyer imbalance and strategic positioning on the daily chart suggest a potential bullish momentum continuation. Traders may consider these insights when formulating their trading strategies.
Daily Footprint Analysis
Gold - Next Move Should Be UpThe fibs and structure seem to be aligned and complete... I think the wave down is complete, and we should see ABC or a 1-2 up... once that structure develops we can start to project the movement.
2024-05-22 - a daily price action after hour update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Another round of all time highs but bears printed some bigger bear bars on higher volume but in the overall picture it’s still a trading range around the all time highs for stock indexes. To have any meaning, bears would need strong follow through tomorrow and make meaningful lower lows and test the daily 20ema.
Commodities actually can have a red day. What a time to be alive. Copper sold off for almost 6% and Gold printed a big bear bar too, exciting.
NVIDIA: The stock that saves the market because AI is the reason no asset valuation metric is important anymore. Stock hit 997.9 after hours and my best guess is that most institutions will use this spike as a gift to take more profits. Will see about that in the next 4 weeks.
Gold
comment: Another triangle 2412 - 2440 which I expect to break down below and we get a second leg down. The measured move target is 2375, coincidences… Besides that, bulls got the 2450 and market showed bigger rejection again. Bears need follow through below 2400 now.
current market cycle: Small bear trend in bigger trading range 2300-2454
key levels: 2300 - 2450
bull case: Daily 20ema is at 2370, so bulls still closed above it and that means the market is still mostly bullish. Since we printed another ath on Monday, some pull-back was expected. Bulls would like to keep it above 2380 because it’s the most recent support under 2400. They want a big pull-back to make bears question the strength of the selling. Their first target is 2400 and then a breakout of the bear channel. Invalid below 2375.
bear case: Bears got consecutive bear bars on the daily chart. They also see the formed channel and they want to keep the pull-back sideways and as neutral as it gets before a second leg down. My preferred target for the pull-back is at least 2400 inside the drawn channel. It could be that my channel is wrong and we see a faster and steeper drop to 2350 but i highly doubt that. Ultimately, bears want 2300 again soon. I watch the 15m and 1h 20ema closely for shorts. My swing position is very green.
short term: Sideways to up. Had big down today, now a pull-back is expected. Please watch my chart. Invalid below 2372.
medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. We are on our way to retest the highs and after that I expect to trade down to at least 2150 but for that we need way bigger selling pressure. —unchanged
current swing trade: Shorted 2429 on Tuesday - target 2375, sl 2390. Took 25% off at 2380. +480 so far.
trade of the day: Strong selling with follow through below 2400, given that market could not trade above the 1h 20ema, should have been short since 2414 or once we broke 2400.
Buy June gold at 2411 limit, stop at 2376, tgt openBuy June gold at 2411 limit, stop at 2376, tgt open
Gold analysisGold formed cup and handle pattern in 4Hr frame ...waiting for a breakout for upside .....above 73000......targets 73500,74000 sl 500 points .do your own analysis before investing.
Golden, Green, or ScarletHey There, Welcome Back. Today we analyze the evergreen hedge commodity.
- If you are an Indian, Given that Gold rallied almost 17% in a very short span You must be quite happy. We Indians love gold. Especially, the ladies in our homes.
- The chart of Gold Futures is showing something interesting. The price took quite a rejection from the recent support zone.
- If this rejection holds, we may see a correction/retracement.
- On the other hand, we may just see a consolidation phase (Which is usual after a good rally)
- Only future price action will tell what's what but in the meantime, here are a few rumors/updates to know in the vicinity of Gold (Some are just rumors so take it with a pinch of salt) :
- BRICS Bloc is rumored to introduce a gold-backed currency that will any day be more reliable than the flat currency every other country has.
- US is battling Economy slowdown and recession. The United States has the world's highest national debt with $30.1 trillion owed to creditors as of the first quarter of 2023- Al Jazeera.
- The US Credit ratings were reduced to AA+ from the elite AAA
- If the BRICS Currency comes out, 85% of the global population will stop using US Dollars for intra trades settlement (BRICS Nations)
- Russia is out of the SWIFT System meaning USD Dealings are off the table. That reduces the demand for dollars.
- Saudi Arabia is rumored to join BRICS. Also, for the first time, they are considering accepting other currencies besides the Dollar for Oil trades. This may hugely impact the almighty dollar.
- In the calendar year 2022, central banks around the world purchased a record 1,136 tonnes of gold.
- RBI’s hoard of gold is now almost 800 tonnes
- China’s Central Bank is accumulating gold for straight 9 months
- Gold may soon be the King once again.
Does that mean we will start buying gold at any given price? Absolutely Not. But we will surely keep a check on the global news, the price action, and our overall asset allocations.
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE SHORT after 4Hr Supply Mitigation...?COMEX:GC1!
“Persistence can change failure into extraordinary achievement.” -Matt Biondi
I believe that we are going to be able to catch a nice HIGH PROBABLE SHORT here on GOLD very soon...Being that price is currently trading inside of this Daily Supply and even clearer the Mitigated 4Hr SUPPLY ZONE!! I'm going to wait patiently for PA to continue to develop and then we'll drop down to a LTF and wait for a confirmed 15m CHoCh and then we may enter the market SHORT... I will keep update once we get more data printed...
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
UPDATE GOld hit 1st target - 2nd Target ready to rally to $2,746Our gold anaslysis played out very nicely after the triangle formation, breakout and then run up to the first target at $2,236.
Now we have a new formation in the making - W FOrmation.
I do believe we will get some sideways movement to create equilibrium and prepare for the next run up.
So as long as the price is above the 20 and 200MA - it's good to go!
My second target is set for gold to $2,746
Precious metals have been just that, precious Gold SilverThe US #Dollar is trading in the middle of its range since Late 2022.
It is also holding the recent uptrend well.
TVC:VIX is a tad lower today.
#Gold & #Silver still look good, Daily & Weekly.
Loading up on AMEX:SLV when we stated the inverse head & shoulder was a good move.
(took some off recently but still have large position)
AMEX:CEF AMEX:GLD
GOLD Next movegold just gave a divergence -tight divergence on the daily tf and a wide divergence on the 4hr tf . it as well gave us a rising eadge with a break of the counter trend line and a retest on the 4hrs time frame giving us an entry
Gold, not FoldMoving averages displaying all the characteristics of an uptrend, classical Inverse H&S pattern formed, as long with volume upticks with prices pushing upwards leads me to believe this precious metal price could increase
Gold COMEX Future - Intraday Levels - 15th May 2024*ONLY MAJOR LEVEL* also refer yesterdays level
if Sustain above 2365.3 then bullish then 2375 then 2383.1 then 2395.3 to 2399.4 then 2411.8 to 2417.1 then 2420 then 2420.9 above this more bullish
if Sustain Below 2360.3 or 2358.2 below this bearish then 2346.3 then 2338.2 to 2324.1 below this more bearish
Consider some buffer points in above levels.
Please do your due diligence before trading or investment.
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