Gold H4 Wathcing For A Bullish Reversal Into The Mid 1930In this update we review the recent price action in the #Gold futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target01:04by Tickmill115
Finally we have seen a minor confirmation for Downtrend. #GOLDits been several days the market was undecisive and chaotic. Finally its coming to a normal shape and trend. As always, technical traders are the first to notice the moves...Shortby RASHIDTESHAEV222
Gold FuturesCOMEX:GC1! Gold Futures We have a very strong display area which is a sales area that we can rely on.by ELHASSANE-TRA1
Initiating a long term bullish position in goldThis is an analysis that I hope that it ages well, as I am starting a long term position in gold today and adding this asset to my investment portfolio. Therefore, this is not a post about an isolated trade, with a specific expiration date or focused on the short-term. In fact, from a trading point of view I have already lost some great entry opportunities, since November 2022, which the asset provided. Looking back on the chart, I could see four previous entry opportunities that fit my setups. Unfortunately, I wasn't psychologically prepared to trade them and I was left out, but I will try to take some advantage of this situation and later write a study post pointing out these entries. Another post on trading psychology, This is an analysis that I hope that it ages well, as I am starting a long term position in gold today and adding this asset to my investment portfolio. Therefore, this is not a post about an isolated trade, with a specific expiration date or focused on the short-term. In fact, from a trading point of view I have already lost some great entry opportunities, since November 2022, which the asset provided. Looking back on the chart, I could see four previous entry opportunities that fit my setups. Unfortunately, I wasn't psychologically prepared to trade them and I was left out, but I will try to take some advantage of this situation and later write a study post pointing out these entries. Another post on trading psychology, fears involved, strategies to control them and analysis paralysis may also be written later (spoiler: risk sizing and embracing the risk consciously helps to tame the beast) . However, from an investment point of view, with a long-term perspective and also taking advantage of some hedging to reduce risk, it is better to buy gold late than never, or as I prefer to say, better late than too late. Because if a strong bull run starts after this breakout, I would regret not buying at the $2000 quote level. And, yes, there are indications that this may become a reality. The first indication comes from the analysis of the chart, gold prices have been stuck into a multi-year congestion between $1700 and $2000. Tipically, the longer the congestion is, the more intense its breakout and further away the target, and historically gold has been king of this setup. The $2000 level is where the price peaked during the covid crisis and the russian invasion of Ukraine. I mean, this price level is imposing a very strong limit on quotations. But we're now facing the threat of a future interest rate and expected inflation much higher than we've been used to over the last decades (since the 90s, specifically), and these things could be a real game changer for the market scenario. So, here the gold quotes are, back at the $2000 resistance level and showing strong volume near it. Of course, resistance can work once again, but we have to trade probabilities and deal with risk, and that means grabbing a good entry opportunity like this one, and accepting a loss if the signal deviates. The second indication comes from the analysis of the market cycle. All clues point to the fact that we may already be at the beginning of a secular bear market cycle, which means that expected future returns for the next years (10y average) can be near zero, single digit, or even negative. I'm not predicting some kind of crash here, it's different, this is not a single intense bearish movement, but a future outlook of low stock market growth. Using the model published by Ed Easterling in his book, Unexpected Returns, the top (thus the beginning of the end) of a secular bull market comes with high P/E's, low dividend yields, low inflation and low interest rates. This was just the scenario we had few years ago and it started to crack, first inflation got out of control (2021), then interest rates started to rise (2022) and P/E's just began to fall with last year falling quotes, but it's still on a high level, so this could just be the beginning of this cycle of low returns. With this in mind, it is important to notice that gold is often the best secular bear market asset par excellence (see the returns in the 2000s and in the 1970s periods), but so far in this newborn bear cycle, gold has yet to shine, despite the very bearish year of 2022. Considering the secular bear market hypothesis and the very long chart congestion, added to the habit of this asset to make strong breakouts, I decided to initiate a long term bullish position in gold. I made my entry using the ETF GLD. I bought the shares today, March 20th, 2023, at the market opening, @184.17. To manage my risk I also bought a bear put spread with strikes 166/165. I intend to stop the loss if this entry reaches a -6.5% loss. I've bought enough options to pay back my losses if that happens. The protection has cost me 0,8% of the position. Hopefully in the future I will post more about this position, and then I will use the GLD chart. For now, for a general approach, I prefer to do my analysis using the future contract chart.Longby thessia_Updated 0
Double top formed near the ATH is breaking downBy March '23 gold did a strong breakout near the 2000 quote. After that, the prices did not continue to flow and stucked inside a congestion at that level. At 04 May '23 the prices tried to overpass the previous top but failed. This failure gave us a doji candle, at the previous top, a very bearish signal, and besides that, it also gave us a double top formation. The congestion kept going for some more days until a sequence of bearish candles appeared (16 to 18 May '23) breaking down the support of the previous bottom and confirming the double top formation. As I have posted before here , I have started a long term position in gold, and I remain bullish in it. But the chart gave us these bearish signals that are too strong to be ignored, so I decided to hedge via futures contracts and started a short trade at the 1981.60. As the GC is a heavy contract for margin purposes, I'm actually trading the micro gold contract (MGC). This price level is basically the same I did my entry at the spot through GLD, so my resulting position is currently neutral. That is, if prices fall, I profit in MGC and loss in GLD, on the same proportion; if prices go up, I profit in GLD and loss in MGC. And giving up this profit if it goes up, is my cost for this hedge. If I stop the GLD I get short directional, otherwise, if I stop the MCG I get long.Shortby thessia_0
Review of last night's trades5.22.23 In this video I took a look at gold, Palladium, and oil.14:56by ScottBogatin4
Gold mixed signals but still showing signs up upside to $2,351Cup and Handle formed on Gold. We had the price rocket up which sent a number of gold stocks to the stratosphere in a short time. Now we have had a retracement (as expected), which is where the price will be testing a crucial level of support. It could even go down further to test the diagonal uptrend before the bounce. We need to keep an eye out on these levels, as it's crucial times. in saying that, there are a few mixed signals right now. 21>7 - Bearish Price>200 - Bullish RSI<50 - Bearish (Hopefully will make a higher low). Target $2,351 Will also do an analysis on the DIXIE to see where things stand with the US Dollar. This is a strongly correlated market with gold this year. Longby Timonrosso4
Gold major reversal?Gold dip further primarily due to the appreciation of the Dollar. Price looks to retrace towards the descending trendline / 4hour - 50 EMA at around the 2000 region. If price reverses from the 2000 resistance region, price can look to trade lower towards the 1940 region. However, if price manage to trade above the 2007 region, price may continue to trade towards the upside. by TrainingTrader0
Long GoldWent short 1986.3 05/17/23 and took profit at 1955.1 on the 05/18/23 realising a profit of $31.2 in swing movement. 05/18/23 opened a long position 1955.7 when the price of venus was at an angle to the same price of Mars. Lets see if we continue the trend at the beginning of next week. According to COT report of the 05/16/23, managed money are long 139,786 (79.6% long) Gold contracts versus 35,803 (20.4% short) But a new report should be available MondayLongby BoccaLupo111
Bobby's Homework Assignment Part 15.19.23 This is the first of two videos responding to Questions from the follower. ....What triggers my trade.... Is it a thought out process that leads me to The trade.... or is it a spontaneous decision to take the trade? I took 19 minutes to give the answer. It's a great question... and I think he's asking the question from the perspective of the market.... what is the market telling me. But that's not the way it works... the way you trade has just as much to do with you... the trader. If you want to trade better... I believe you need better personal insight.20:00by ScottBogatin4
Gold Update (weekly Chart)Gold today broke through the flag bottom at 1985, so the seasonal effect is in play. I have three targets as of now: 1947.63, the pivot point of the weekly chart flag pole; 1924.60, the mid-point of the flag poll; 1921.6, the Gann confluence line (which would also be the base of the prior flag last year). I see 1924 to 1921 as the likely target. If we had a sell off like last year, we would be looking at a low in the 1700 range -- highly unlikely. If that happened, I would load up the boat. I am still bullish on gold long term, the macro elements are undeniable. Longby UnknownUnicorn131011
Gold Future - Elliott Wave (Update)Gold should reach around the 50% retracement (around 1842) for the minute wave ((2)) and continue for the rally ? The minuette (iii) wave should be done today or this week to regards on the momentum stochastic daily and should reverse to targeting the wave minuette (iv) Trade Strategy : The Stochastic Weekly momentum bearish reversal are made but be aware of the Stochastic daily, the momentum bullish reversal it's near to the OS (Oversold), so it should be sideway to down for a couple of days before the momentum trends rally again for few days ( or 2-3 weeks ?) and go down to the 50 % retracement. Let me know in comment, what do you think and if you like my opinion give me a blue thumb ! 👍🙌by TradingX300
Gold Future - Elliott WaveGold should reach around the 50% retracement (around 1842) of wave ((3)) and continue for the wave 5 of 5 ? Trade Strategy : The Stochastic Weekly momentum bearish reversal are made but be aware of the Stochastic daily, the momentum bullish reversal it's near to the OS (Oversold), so it should be sideway to down for a couple of days before the momentum trends rally again for few days ( or 2-3 weeks ?) and go down to the 50 % retracement. Let me know in comment, what do you think and if you like my opinion give me a blue thumb ! 👍🙌 by TradingX30Updated 220
Daily review5.17.23 This video Takes a look at coffee, Gold...And some top trade decisions.20:00by ScottBogatin5
Gold's Big Plunge-Is The Bear Market Just Getting Started? $GC1!Market Environments are constantly changing. One day a bull market is in play and the next day we could be starting a bear market. With inflation looking as though it's going to continue to come down, is the Gold Bull Market over? I think it is (for now). Who knows what the future brings, but with what I see in the data and what I see on the charts, Gold's next move is lower, not higher. In this video I go over why I believe that Gold is headed towards the low 1900's and key areas I will be using for resistance and support along the way. I use auto anchored VWAP's and 3 standard deviation lines around the VWAP's. Looking forward to reading your comments on this video. Cheers.Short14:35by anthonycrudele117
Gold Bugs Squished?I've been talking about Gold COMEX:GC1! hitting a major high for my last two Livestreams (catch them Friday at 4pm Eastern after the market close). The current price action warrants a standalone post. Each Livestream for many months has had at least one person ask what I thought about Gold. It was very simple: Gold was trending UP to test the major Monthly highs. In many of my social market chats about two weeks ago my gold bug friends began getting very excited. I urged caution. Price MUST break the high and confirm the breakout before getting long at this major Resistance Level. Now it looks as of gold price is respecting this monthly high from the last few years. To be contrarian I had to short Gold (using AMEX:GLD ) based upon a Spike setup from Friday May 5th's high. Last week price pulled back and "should have gone" to retest and break the high. It did not and returned back inside the range. This sets up a short. I also know from taking market sentiment that a lot of traders may have gotten a bit overly optimistic. This could setup for a good pullback to at least the 1850 Level. Shortby norok1128
Gold will continue to fall, trust me and you will make money Human nature has a weakness, the more you care about something, the more it will torture you. When you are no longer intimidated, when you have the courage and determination to be true to yourself, every day will be your best. If gold just enters the market at 2017.50 in the morning, if you want a small risk control, you must wait. At present, gold is under pressure in the first line of 2021, which also forms a short-term platform secondary rebound suppression, so it will continue to be bearish at night. Gold operation recommends selling in 2019, stop loss at 2023, target 2008~2000, if it falls below 1991 Although gold rebounded from the previous low of 2000, the bearish trend is still dominated by bearishness, with intraday pressure at 2021~2025 and support at 2000~1991. Join me and I will guide you to a profitable trade 💵!Shortby DomineeringdealUpdated 4
Believe me gold continues to be short and bearish Gold reversed in early trading, but it failed to break through the pressure position of 2020 twice! The pattern of decline remains unchanged, it is a rebound, not a reversal! In early trading, 2016 empty orders have entered the market, and now continue to be short and bearish! Still falling after the shock! It is the most normal thing to have fluctuations in the trending market, and the sideways or fluctuations in the decline are all to gain momentum for breaking new lows again! There are only two situations where gold reverses now. The first is a strong breakthrough in 2020, which means that the market has reversed! The second is to test the 2000 mark multiple times without breaking it! Neither of the two situations are happening now! We just continue to execute according to the established principles and strategies. If the empty order has entered the market, then hold and wait until it breaks! specific strategy Gold 2016 short, stop loss 2024, take profit 2000. Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write in the comments. I will be happy 👩💻 Shortby Domineeringdeal2
Impending reversal from Gold?Gold retraces most of the bearish move but was unable to maintain above the 2045 level. Price fell back to last week low where price found support at the 2007 region. Price looks to consolidate between 2007 and 2025. A breakout of the 2007 support region can potentially push price more towards the downside, possibly towards 1985 support region.by TrainingTrader0
Bobby's Homework Assignment Part 35.14.23 I promised one more video for Sunday. I decided to focus On opening price trades and two bar reversals and why they not only find you Targets, but the setup Provides you with very small stops. We are all entitled choose the way we are going to make Evaluations of the market....But if you listen to this video and you don't get it and you choose to not look at this type of evaluation.... I am suggesting that you're giving up on a strategy that has much more power to it then you realize. It may require A short. Of time to get a feel for this.... but the transformations that may occur with your effort to understand this.... will more than pay for the effort... in my opinion. Most people fail because they fail to do what is needed to succeed... and part of that failure is their inability to go through the effort to become proficient. 20:00by ScottBogatin4
2000 may be difficult to stick to, next week 2030 will rebound e The price of gold is again on a high level correction on Monday. This week, gold as a whole surged and fell back, continuing the weekly pattern of the previous week. The top peak hit 2048 and then retreated until the U.S. market fell back to the lowest mark of 2000 on Friday, which is basically the same as last week. The trend is that they all rose at the beginning of the week and retreated at the end of the week, but they all fell below the 2000 mark, and the weekly closing was around 2011. On the contrary, silver's retracement this week was significantly larger, falling below 24, and silver's short position has increased. Next week, we need to pay attention to the possibility of gold's 2000 mark being broken, and the bulls are no longer so optimistic. , The weekly line received two consecutive upper shadows that rose and fell back. The risk of continuing to retrace next week is very high, and the probability of 2000 is untenable. However, if we analyze it in the mid-term, the weekly line can only be treated as a correction at a high level. Last week, it retraced the high point and then retreated to the 2000 mark. Now the bulls and bears will compete for this point. Who can occupy this position? , the market outlook will be able to dominate the medium-term trend, and now the short-term is bearish, and the medium-term is still difficult to judge. As for next week, the short-term operation must be based on rebounding and high-altitude layout, but because the main suppression at the daily level is concentrated above 2030, so if 2000 is still holding on to the support at the beginning of the week, we still need to wait patiently for the opportunity to rebound , If you break through 2000 directly, you can also see the line from 1980 to 1970 with the short position, and the long position is considered to enter the market in the range from 1970 to 1950. I have been doing gold and silver transactions for decades, from my twenties to my fifties, from an energetic young man to a mature and stable old man, I have paid a lot, and published fewer and fewer articles Yes, but I feel better and more relaxed. After all, trading is only a part of our life, not all of it. Hey follow me if you want to learn more financial knowledgeShortby DomineeringdealUpdated 2
Gold Futures (GC) Weekly is Bull Flagging, But.....Gold is currently in a flag similar to that experienced last March and April. Last year's flag broke down, very unusual for this formation (normally it is a continuation pattern). Most likely the breakdown can be explained by the strong ramp up in the dollar index last year. Also, gold seasonality is usually weakest starting in April - June. This flag is very tight, and being very near the all time high of 2089.20 at the flag peak of 2085.4 -- so I am biased in thinking that this flag may not reverse, even should DXY show strength. Of course, there are numerous geopolitical and other macro events which can have a positive effect on gold, if they create uncertainty. Key areas to watch. A break below 1985.60 and hold and it will signal another flag breakdown. A break above and hold of 2085.40 (flag peak) and it signifies a bull flag continuation. These are simple areas to watch and are significant. Longby UnknownUnicorn13101112
Gold FuturesGold Futures COMEX:GC1! Yesterday's gold deal saw a very strong drop from the strong supply area set and currently heading to the specific demand area beloShortby ELHASSANE-TRA0