COFFEE UptrendHi Folks:
A fellow trader asked my advise on Coffee, so I am sharing my view on this commodity.
Ascending channel, resistance broken, all seems to be sending prices to previous highs,
No positions opened, just sharing possible scenario on this pair without knowing much of the fundamentals related.
Cheers
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KC1! trade ideas
COFFEE - SELLCoffee has started it's descending now, and the key is below 230.00 for further encouragement.
The stochastic are negative now for daily and weekly (the weekly has bearish engulfing pattern).
Strategy sell between $ 240-245 or add to positions for a move to $ 195. Stop-loss $ 252 above Gann resistance.
COFFEE - SELL SELLthe medium-term picture of coffee is to correct over time. we should be seeing 200.00 levels again.
The current price $ 245 is above the BB and the RSI is way higher than the past corrections observed.
Strategy is to sell in small increments, and stop-loss (perhaps not needed due to the high level of RSI).
manage the position carefully, and take back positions during decline at 227.00 and 217.00 and re-sell when moving higher afterwards.
BULLISH ON US COFFEE (SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE°B ullish clues:
- General uptrend since October 2019
- Symmetrical triangle , and coffee price just perfectly rebound on the symmetrical triangle's support and the 50 EMA
- Bullish Harami on the support
- Hidden Bullish Divergence on the Relative Strength Index ( RSI )
- 50 Exponential Moving Average act as a support
Fundamental news: (from Reuters)
- Lower production in Brazil , driven partly by drought and frost, has helped to tighten arabica supplies ( - 25.7% ) according to Conab. Released yesterday (September 21, 2021).
- Brazil's Cooxupe, the world's largest coffee co-op and the country's No.1 exporter, expects significant damage to the 2022 crop from frosts that hit fields in July. Released yesterday (September 21, 2021).
Objectives:
If the symmetrical triangle is confirmed, coffee could goes up to the level of $215.00 USD (highest point of the symmetrical triangle and resistance zone).
MAYBE WAIT A PULLBACK AS A CONFIRMATION OF THE SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE
Feel free to share, comment and give your opinion if it is constructive ;)
DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice
Education: Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)ICEUS:KC1!
I learned a handy tool used to manage risk under certain circumstances - the Three Day Trailing Stop Rule (3DTSR)
In this example, I actually fade the 3DTSR, but being able to execute different styles of trading strategies reflects an understanding of them, while acknowledging that no system or strategy used in markets will be perfect.
Three Day Trailing Stop Rule:
There is one initial criteria for the 3DTSR to become active -
Either
Upon Pattern Breakout - to limit initial risk/add to position at lower relative risk
OR
Upon Reaching 70% of Target from Breakout as a Trailing Stop
In an Uptrend, to exit a position using the 3DTSR
Day 1 is the High Day, defined by a new price high - at this point, we are not aware of the setup
Day 2 is the Setup Day, defined by a closing price (end of day) that is below the low of Day 1 - at this point, the trigger is active
Day 3 is the Trigger Day, as the stop is placed below the low of Day 2
The 3DTSR can also be used as an entry strategy, as shown in the chart here.
Day 1 = High Day
Day 2 = Setup Day, where price closed below the low of Day 1
Instead of placing a stop below the low of day 2, here I fade the 3DTSR by ADDING to a long coffee position, and jamming the stop to below the low of Day 2
Day 3 = The low of Day 2, or the trigger, is never penetrated, and price opens a cent higher
If using the Trigger as a stop, or below the low of Day 2, and using the Triangle shown to imply a measured target, this is a whopping 20 to 1 trade setup.
Do you have any profitable trading systems or strategies?
Coffee Re-accumulation! Hello my beauties.
The chart of coffee suggests a violent bullish breakout of a multi-year downward trendline. The price will probably continue its uptrend, but it is now signalling the beginning of a phase of re-accumulation; the price has reacted strongly with a sudden move to the downside that has stunned the price sideways. I will wait for further development to make sure the schematics play out as expected. I will wait for the price to breach the range in red to the downside, only to quickly recover within the range itself; the successful retest of the bottom of the range would be my buy signal before the uptrend continuation.
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Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
COFFEE WK1: 100% Gains SWING setup BUY/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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COFFEE WK2: 100% Gains SWING setup BUY/HOLD(NEW)(SL/TP)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: COFFEE WK2 chart review
::: chart is LOG SCALE
::: setup still valid expecting
::: 100% gains final TP BULLS
::: global inflation driving prices
::: also global warming heavy impact
::: cycle high for the market is near
::: 300/320 USD BULLS control the market
::: 12/24 months as global economy
::: is starting the recovery right now
::: BULLISH CYCLE is ON BUY DIPS
::: BUY/HOLD get paid / swing trade setup
::: BUY ANY DIPS / final TP bulls is 175 USD/ bbl
::: 100% upside from current market price
::: WAIT for dips and reload (BULLS)
::: recommend to BUY/HOLD
::: recommended strategy: BUY/HOLD
::: bullish super cycle in coffee market
::: SWING trade setup do not expect
::: fast/miracle overnights gains here
::: good luck traders
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: 100USD fresh demand zone
::: 300USD fresh supply zone
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment short-term: BULLS / MORE GAINS
::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS / SUPER CYCLE
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
KC1! COFFEE FUTURES:FIBO PULLBACK WITH FUNDAMENTAL NEWS...Coffee prices on Thursday extended this week's rally. Coffee has moved higher this week despite concerns about coffee crops in Brazil. Weather has predicted above-average temperatures in the coming month for Brazil's coffee-growing regions, which could further stress Brazil's coffee plantations. Recent frost events in Brazil have damaged coffee trees. Surveys conducted by the government found that last month's frost events reached 194 municipalities and more than 80% were affected in some way. Control authorities said on August 3 he said sharp swings in temperatures over the past 30 days in Brazil have triggered severe defoliation of trees in coffee growing areas.
Nevertheless we can see how the chart is in a Situation of Pullback, with Volumes and Stochastic Indicator coming out of the Oversold area with divergence. The price has harmoniously rebounded on Fibonacci levels and our opinion sees the price of coffee rise also due to the possible decrease in stocks.
Do you think the cost of coffee will grow?
COFFEE:UPTREND|NEW BULLISH FIBO IMPULSE| LONG SETUP 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community!
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