6/7/24 - $pwfl - can't own it near $5; reassess w $3 handle. k?6/7/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:PWFL - doing a friday look at IOT alternatives given my initial start stake in NYSE:IOT today (go read that) seeing if there's anything else to own.
this one has a great story. fleet-matics i'll call it. nearly $300 mm in revenue this year is the mgmt goal so 2x sales - which is probably not the right metric - but a starting pt that is least polluted by all the BS that happens under revenue in "tech-related". gross mgns here are not really software - much more of a hardware business (unlike mgns for NYSE:IOT which are rich and sustainable and likely will expand).
even if you look at mgmt projections for '26 which are not fair to give any company (ever) it's $100 mm of EBITDA, which puts this at 6x ebitda and probably it should theoretically trade at 10x if they could reach that pt (if we had a crystal ball). however, what's the discount rate for equities, nevermind smaller, and w lofty projections? 20? 25%? - so you're at 6x discounting back 2 yrs anyway.
the underlying point here is (and really - damn - i'm looking for longs and have to write it like i see it bc my money is on the line - i'm writing these for myself guys not to pander to the always-buy-and-be-bullish-on-everything-that-trades-or-floats-even-poop crowd on social media these days)....
THE point is - this isn't ownable here. if you have a nuanced view, or think their tech is close to M&A - sure - go for it. but at nearly $5/shr, it's dead money in my book at best and i think realistic downside is probably in the $3-4/shr region (easy). i'm not in a hurry to buy this. i'd buy the faster swimmer w/ more cap, good results and just on the beginning of their S-curve which again remains NYSE:IOT even if it's expensive (again go read the logic in my post on that one).
gl to all. feel free to comment if u want to add something helpful to my thesis or offer a rebuttal
-V