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CAU2024 trade ideas

Canadian Dollar Historic Long(Futures) This is the CoT index of Commercials(Blue) and Retailers(Green). As you can see, Commercials are in the high extreme and Retailers are in low extreme of the index. The vertical blue lines are the past identical situations which ended up in big rallies. Plus, when the retailers net position(green area) is around -8000 (the dotted green line) resulted in rallies also. On top of that Commercials net positions(the blue area) is close to the all time high (since 2001). the last time Commercials net positions were this high was May 2017 which ended up in a BIG rally. Besides, the 15-year seasonality shows bottom of the market around the end of June and top of the market around the end of July. Keep in mind that this is the Canadian Dollar futures chart which is the inverted of USDCAD of Forex chart.
CME:6C1!Long
by XardasX
Canadian Dollar Futures Trading Plan and ExplanationAfter analyzing options trades on CME, we found a promising opportunity to short Canadian Dollar. The option contract is for April with an expiration date of April 5, 2024. We noticed an interesting option portfolio on March 22 that aligns with the trigger level on the futures chart (refer to chart). A trigger level is a graphical pattern on the underlying asset that prompts traders to take or avoid specific trading actions. For the Canadian futures chart, the trigger level is the price breakdown of the local resistance at 0.7403-0.07406. Opening long positions at the breakdown point was encouraged by the bullish shape and intensity of the candlestick with minimal shadows. This level was attractive for making purchases for both chartists and adepts of candlestick analysis. The study of options trading has revealed that these levels are useful for opening counter positions when the price reaches them. To execute this strategy, smart traders use naked options in advance, specifically PUT options with a strike of 0.74. By utilizing the leverage effect of options, traders can create substantial short positions on futures contracts while maintaining a risk-free position for a limited time. IMPORTANT! We do not expect the price to move towards the strike level. Instead, we recommend using the obtained exchange data and analyzing it to gain an edge when opening a trade, providing a better starting point and improving the risk/reward ratio.
CME:6CM2024
by ClashChartsTeam
CAD - Futures - 24/4/2024 CAD Futures - Last week we had a very strong price rejection which created a weekly pin bar. but we needed more evidence to support this. This evidence came in a form of Commercials changing positions which is at 91,572 net positions. This is the highest net position in the last 26 weeks. Also in another weeks time we will have the NFP and CPI reports coming out and CAD is now showing strength against the Dollar prior to these reports coming out
CME_MINI:MCD1!Long
by insanemalin
Long CAD futuresPossible long trade on Canadian dollar futures (short USDCAD, same setup upside down) 30min uptrend formed with 200 ema confirming trend direction Recent swing HH acting as support zone along with 61.8% fib retracement Volume profile POC closing higher for 4 consecutive days. Yesterdays volume profile closed with POC at the high of day and as a double distribution. Price filling in the volume cave at the level of support. Trigger: Break out counter trend LH or Break of counter trendline Stop loss below range low Target at recent swing high
CME:6C1!Long
by ElGore18
Potential Reversal in the Canadian Dollar: Analyzing Supply and Overview: In recent trading sessions, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has displayed weakness, particularly since encountering weekly supply levels. However, there are indications that the CAD might be poised for a turnaround, especially as it approaches a daily demand zone. Analyzing the charts, we observe a potential opportunity for CAD strength, with key technical factors hinting at a shift in momentum. Technical Analysis: Weekly Supply Impact: The CAD has experienced a period of weakness following its interaction with weekly supply levels. This suggests significant selling pressure in the market, impacting the currency's performance. Daily Demand Zone: Presently, the CAD is situated within a daily demand zone, which often serves as a crucial area for potential reversals. Traders typically monitor such zones closely for signs of price action indicating a shift in sentiment. H4 CHoCH Signal: On the H4 timeframe, We have a change of character (CHoCH) is signaling a potential turnaround. This indicator can provide insights into buying or selling pressure within the market, potentially indicating a shift in momentum favoring the CAD. Target Levels: If the CAD manages to find support within the daily demand zone and the CHoCH signal confirms bullish momentum, we could anticipate a retracement back towards the 0.7400 levels. Longer-Term Outlook: A break of the prevailing downtrend line, coupled with the removal of opposite supply, could pave the way for a sustained upward movement in the CAD. Such a scenario could signal a longer-term shift in market sentiment towards CAD strength. Conclusion: While the Canadian Dollar has encountered resistance at weekly supply levels, the presence of a daily demand zone and favorable technical indicators suggest the potential for a reversal in CAD fortunes. Traders should closely monitor price action, particularly around the identified support levels and the CHoCH signal, for confirmation of bullish momentum. A break of the downtrend line could mark the beginning of a longer-term upward trajectory for the CAD, offering trading opportunities for those positioned accordingly. However, traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies in response to evolving market conditions.
CME:6C1!
by Mike_SnD
Exploring the Impact of CBDC on Forex Trading in CanadaI am reaching out to discuss an intriguing topic that has been gaining significant attention in the financial realm: the potential impact of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on forex trading in Canada. As you may be aware, the introduction of CBDC has sparked numerous discussions and debates among forex traders. The purpose of this idea is to delve into the concerns raised by these traders and shed light on how the implementation of CBDC could potentially affect their trading strategies, market liquidity, and overall dynamics of the forex market. Forex traders have expressed several apprehensions regarding the introduction of CBDC. Firstly, they are concerned about the potential disruption to their trading strategies. Since CBDC would be a digital representation of the national currency, traders fear that its introduction could alter the existing forex market dynamics, making their current strategies less effective or even obsolete. Moreover, market liquidity is another aspect that traders are closely monitoring. The introduction of CBDC could potentially impact the liquidity of the forex market, as it may attract a significant portion of trading volume towards this new digital currency. This shift in liquidity could have implications for traders who rely on the current market conditions and liquidity levels to execute their trades effectively. Furthermore, the overall dynamics of the forex market might experience some changes with the introduction of CBDC. Traders are concerned about potential shifts in exchange rates, volatility, and the relationship between different currency pairs. These changes could create uncertainties and challenges for traders who have built their strategies based on the existing market dynamics. In conclusion, the potential implications of CBDC on forex trading in Canada have raised valid concerns among traders. The impact on trading strategies, market liquidity, and overall forex market dynamics are critical factors that need to be carefully considered. Understanding these concerns and their potential consequences is crucial for traders and policymakers alike. cointelegraph.com
CME_MINI:MCD1!
by bryandowningqln
Last Dance of the Loonie and WTI? The correlation between WTI and Canadian Dollar seems to be breaking down, at least in the short term. Not sure the reasons for this, but posting to hear thoughts. For those unfamiliar with the WTI/CAD correlation, I have added some context. The Correlation: How Are They Connected? Commodity-Driven Economy : Canada is known for its abundant natural resources, including oil. The Canadian economy is heavily reliant on its energy sector, which includes the production and export of oil. When WTI crude oil prices rise, Canadian oil exports become more valuable, leading to an influx of foreign capital into Canada. This increased demand for the Canadian dollar can result in its appreciation against other currencies. Economic Health : The Canadian economy's overall health is closely tied to the energy sector's performance. When WTI prices surge, it often indicates increased economic activity, which can benefit Canada's economy and, consequently, the loonie. Conversely, when oil prices plummet, it can have a negative impact on the Canadian economy and lead to a weaker Canadian dollar. Risk Appetite : Like many commodity currencies, the Canadian dollar tends to strengthen during periods of risk appetite. When global economic conditions are stable, investors often flock to assets like oil, which can lead to higher oil prices and, in turn, boost the loonie.
CME:6C1!
by LonnieMSP
CAD FUTURES, Bear-Flag-Formation, Upcoming BREAKOUT!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about the CAD FUTURES on the weekly timeframe perspective. The index recently continued with bearish developments after printing several lower highs. Now important further determinations need to be made as such an bearish price action can activate further continuations if there are no main reversal signs to consider. Within this case I detected important developments with the CAD FUTURES which could signal a potential bearish price action and long-squeeze on the road. When looking at my chart you can watch there the CAD FUTURES continued to print these several lower highs always pulling to the downside off the descending trend-line marked in red. Furthermore, the CAD FUTURES have the 65-EMA marked in red as a main resistance within the already established downtrend. Within this downtrend the index formed a wave-count towards the downside with the waves A and B already formed and with the wave B actually forming this crucial bear-flag-formation likely to complete in the next times. Once the breakout below the lower boundary of the flag-formation has shown up this means that CAD FUTURES are going to set-up the origin of the wave C extension and are going to continue with the extension till the main targets marked in my chart have been reached. Once the targets have been reached it will be important how the index continues from there on because if the bearish momentum increases massively in this case there is an increased possibility for the index to continue within the bearish-continuation-zone. In the next times the final breakout-determination will indicate the further price action. In any case, it will be an important development to consider. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
CME:6C1!
by VincePrince
9
USDCAD Bullish Opportunity (inverted scale Future Contract)This expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC
CME:6C1!Long
by SmartMoneySource
2