CSXQ2025 trade ideas
Bullish on Crude oilNYMEX:CL1!
TVC:DXY
Right now as the Crude Oil prices are at *premium and technically we are around a strong support area I think we would see a rally somewhere between 67.5 and 72.5. However, this week, we have PMI and NFP news ahead so if the reports come out to support DXY, Crude oil might stay around this area for a while (as it's seasonality suggests)
* look at the closing price of the futures contracts between July and December 2024.
Can the HOUSE CAPITALIZE SHORT out of the CURRENT Consolidation?NYMEX:CL1!
"I DONT FOLD UNDER PRESSURE, Great athletes perform better under pressure so put pressure on me." -Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Top of the Sunday Morning Family. I hope we all are well and in gr8 spirits as we get ready to start this trading week. Here I have constructed this SHORT narrative on OIL, out of the Current Range we are trading inside of. The consolidation zone ranges from prices of roughly ($79.30 to $77.20)... Here is what I will need to see in order to enter SHORT and target the 4Hr Swing EQ Level ($76.55).
1) On the Daily TF buyers have pushed price back up into an un-mitigated Daily Supply Zone. & Now that we have Mitigated this Daily Supply, we could see sellers step back into the Market and push price back down.
**** I would like to see buyers sweep the High of the Consolidation zone on the 1Hr TF! If price can break higher than ($79.30) then this would be a good sign for me. Now I want this to be a (Liquidity Sweep SOLELY with no real follow through from buyers) basically manipulation to the upside then BOOM!!! Sellers come in and drop the market off a cliff stopping everyone LONG and Sellers coming to sweep the eR/LQ Trendline to the downside...
2) Price is currently riding a HTF{ 4Hr Ascending eR/LQ Trendline } that I know is going to be swept with strong sellers to the downside and this is the move I'm looking for the HOUSE to CAPITALIZE ON....
3) The EQ level of the Consolidation range is what I need to see price break underneath with confirmed candle closures on the 30m TF & Below before I enter SHORT... The EQ level of the Range is roughly ($78.25)... ****I want to price sweep the Ascending eR/LQ then break and close with strong conviction underneath the Consolidation EQ Level ($78.25) on the 30m TF & below.
**** Now if and when we can get these sequence of events to take place then I will be compelled to place my Limit SHORT on the retest of ($78.25)Consolidation EQ Level and Target the 4Hr Swing EQ Level Below ($76.55) 170 Points SHORT in our favor...
Remember when it comes to FRM (Financial Risk Management) our job is to manage the downside costs of printing High side returns of $$$ consistently... Let's Step!!
Stay Focused & Reach Excellence!!
#BHM500K #NewERA #Champions
Oils last Hurrah till it heads back down towards $69Using history, EMA, Trendlines, and fibs I show that I believe oil will reverse course and start heading back down. This was just a relief rally like in the past as shown before it dontinues the downtrend.
Repairing the Damage. What's Next for Oil?The chart above is continuous front-month Crude Oil futures. We are referencing the July contract below.
Crude Oil (July)
Yesterday’s close: Settled 77.74, up 2.21
WTI Crude Oil futures notched a fantastic start to the week, gaining 2.93%. It is no coincidence the gain comes on the heels of a strong U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. We have spoken about this often, strong economic data may encourage a risk-off tone by pushing out Fed rate cut projections, but ultimately has a positive impact on Crude Oil in the aftermath. Some of yesterday’s rise could also be credited to consolidation tailwinds ahead of this morning’s OPEC Monthly report that left projections little changed, and prices have initially reacted by coming off session highs. We look to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook at 11:00 am CT.
Technically, yesterday’s move to reclaim major three-star resistance at 76.15-76.63, the May lows, has neutralized the early June fallout. As today’s session unfolds into tomorrow’s weekly EIA data, it will be critical for price action to hold out above major three-star support at 76.15-76.25 in order to keep the bulls, in our opinion, with their reestablished edge.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 77.51-77.80***, 78.29-78.16**, 79.32-80.09***
Pivot: 77.35
Support: 76.99*, 76.63**, 76.15-76.25***, 75.53-75.84**
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Disclaimers:
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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Three Simple Technical Narratives Driving Crude OilPlease note that the chart above is the continuous front-month Crude, and we are referencing the August contract below.
Crude Oil (August)
Last week’s close: Settled 78.26, up 0.11
August WTI Crude Oil futures are front month and price action has consolidated terrifically out above the 21-day moving average since last Monday’s strong session. However, as this week unfolds, there are two stories overhead. First, price action has not traded above the 54-day moving average since breaking below it on May 1st, and this comes in at 79.34. Second, there is unfinished gap settlement resistance from the April 30th monthly settle aligning to create rare major four-star resistance with a .618 retracement. While the 54-dma is resistance, one may view the gap settlement as unfinished business and a bullseye that must be tested.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 78.85-78.94***, 80.37-80.61****
Pivot: 78.11
Support: 77.33-77.42***, 75.46-75.75***
CrudeOil**CrudeOil:**
This week's forecast is for the price to rise in the middle of last week's downward movement and reverse the trend towards the bottom of the channel.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Oversold offers a buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil has turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.383, MACD = -1.620, ADX = 31.641) as the price is approaching the bottom of the 2 month Channel Down. As long as it remains under the 1D MA50, the long term trend will be bearish but the oversold conditions and the 1D MACD, which is replicating the early December 2023 bottom pattern, call for a low risk short term buy opportunity. We are targeting the top of the Channel Down and no higher than the 0.382 Fibonacci level (TP = 76.00).
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Thursday VooduWell we are in a sell program and we have respected this 1hr fvg.
So the remit is pretty simple for NY open..
Wait for a retracement for bearish prices.
The Bias is Bearish with the Magnet's as Price tragets for the weekly objectives.
Crude OilThis is not a trading signal, its an opinion, if you copy it, its on your own risk.
Position 1- Long
Position 2- Short
Oil is in down trend on the daily and 4 hours, but there is a pull back to the previous support that has became Resistance to retest it and then we will see continuation to down trend to the levels around $70.40 is the next support level.
USOIL is Under PressureWTI crude oil futures are experiencing a downturn, currently priced at $79.37 per barrel, marking a 0.48% decrease. This decline is attributed to the global economic challenges that are negatively impacting the demand forecast. Similarly, Brent crude has seen a reduction in price, now at $83.88 per barrel.
The economic recovery in China is progressing slower than expected, and the anticipation of additional interest rate hikes is exacerbating concerns over economic growth, exerting further downward pressure on oil prices.
In the United States, crude oil inventories have witnessed an increase of 3.4 million barrels in the previous week, contributing to the existing oversupply. The persistent risk of a recession continues to place significant stress on the oil market.
Meanwhile, amidst these market conditions, option sentiment from the CME exchange suggests a robust support level at $75 for WTI futures in the nearest expiration series. This sentiment indicates a strong market belief that prices are unlikely to fall below this threshold, providing a measure of stability despite the current market volatility.
For investors and market watchers, these indicators from the options market are a critical piece of the puzzle, offering insights into future price movements and trader expectations.
CL1! Oil Setup On The WeeklyCL1! is setting up nicely on the weekly time frame continunity with a hammer in place to indicate a possible reversal over the coming few weeks. RSI is sitting at 38.41 and MACD is falling. Let's watch to see when the MACD closes to show support of a continuation. The Slow Stochoctics indicator is beginning to cross to indicate a change. If nothing else we are beginning to reach a line of support here.
CRUDE OIL (CL): Weak Momentum Likely to Persist?Assalamualaikum wbt and Good Day to fellow traders!
From my rather simplistic view, the overall two-hour time frame (TF2hr) chart seems to indicate that the prices for WTI Light Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) could go further south at least for the time being.
The further potential weakness is being reinforced by the significant key moving averages (in this case Exponential Moving Averages or EMAs ) - the EMA50 (blue line) and EMA200 (amber line) - in which the Black Gold sits below those lines since April 17, 2024.
Despite several rebound attempts, the commodity has continued to slide downwards making some notable Lower Lows and Lower Highs until recently last Friday while trading range-bound in between.
In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also flashed a cautious sell signal last Friday following a cross over.
On top of that, the obvious rejection at the 76.03-76.30 key level could possibly suggest that the bearish momentum is still in play.
However, a bullish reversal may occur should the MACD crossover take place above the 0 line with the help of a significant volume, as well as the two EMAs crossing up.
Wallahu a'lam.
#cl #crudeoil #wti #blackgold #exponentialmovingaverage #ema #macd
Crude Steps and Forces- all rectangles are potential support/resistance with the last one blue being a probable exception
- the 3 marked with dots levels can also become support/resistance, especially the first bottom blueish one, but they can also become like milestones levels or steps in the evolution of the price
- the 2 green curves are also potential support/resistance acting as forces pushing the price up or down
This snapshot considers the bullish scenario where the price remains above 66, with potential reversal patterns to occur near the red rectangle zone.
WTi - BUY
I see a Gap to be filled on MT4
They show up for various reason
Very high chance will return to Fill it
As it does in the Stock Market also
Has nothing to do with any News or how's ya father
Although they will make it appear it does
Even if it doesn't make sense.
They know 90% of traders have no idea about Fundamentals anywyay.
Wycoff Pattern also
Consolidating along the bottom picking up stops like a Vacume Cleaner.
Ultra Metre Bullish Green
: ) Lets See
light oilI expect a corrective movement for oil up to the $74 range.
If the price returns above 82 dollars, this analysis will be invalid.
Heading back to $76 Too oversold at the moment we’re heading back to $76 and possibly beyond before end of Summer. Culminating in a crash in Q4 along with worsening Recession
Oil flow
All ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
CRUDE OIL LONG from $72.75This is an area I have been waiting for weeks, and its coming up on this daily chart of Crude Oil futures.
I have highlighted the last to times price has aproached this trendline, expect to base for a bit, use an indication that turns positive and make your move.
The whole structure is in a very large triangle. I can tell you there is a fair value gap as well at in the entry target as the will get filled.
Target is to the top the triangle potentially this trade can last weeks.
The Overlooked Impact of Lower Crude Oil Prices on Inflation Everyone talks about higher CPI when crude is up, but ignores it when prices drop.
Right now, lower crude oil is actually helping to soften inflation and weaken the dollar.
Keep an eye on the neckline around $70—but it might not be easy to break.
