Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to MIN wave "1" 90.136.Colleagues, the price has shown a decent bearish impulse, and I think we should move Wave 1 lower—to the 90.136 level. Wave “2” is currently forming; this is a correction that has either ended or will end around the 103 level, and I expect the downtrend to resume soon in wave “3”.
I believe we should keep an eye on the nearest target—the low of wave “1” at 90.136.
Once this target is reached, it is worth considering a continuation of the downward movement.
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Crude Oil concerns rising geopolitical Tension USOIL looking bullish because market now focusing geopolitical tension and technical breakout together that’s why buyers are stepping in aggressively near support zones.
Tecnically Oil prices rose more than 3% on Tuesday as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran over a proposal to end the war in the Middle East raised concerns that supply disruptions upending the global oil market are likely to be prolonged Because traders believe supply risks are becoming bigger than demand fears. When market starts pricing future shortages, crude oil usually rallies aggressively.
Resistance ; 105.35 / 110.095
Support ; 99.50 / 97.30
As long as USOIL remains above the 98–99 support zone, bullish momentum stays valid. A strong breakout above recent highs could trigger another wave of buying pressure toward 105 and possibly 110,
USOIL Consolidation Bearish momentumUSOIL started with a clean bullish structure, respecting an ascending channel and printing consistent higher highs. Momentum was strong, buyers were clearly in control no real signs of weakness during that phase.
Tecnically at the top near the 105–106 zone, price began to stall Instead of continuation, we got distribution behaviour choppy movement, loss of momentum, and failure to push higher the real confirmation came with the break below the channel Once that structure gave way, sellers tapped in aggressively, leading to a sharp impulsive drop.
If the price is sitting around 96–97, attempting a bounce but this looks more like a retracement, not a reversal he key zone to watch is 101–102. That’s where price previously reacted, and now it acts as resistance. If price pushes into that area and shows weakness, it’s a high-probability region for sellers to step back in.
You may find more details in the chart,
Trade wisely best of luck buddies.
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USOIL Strong Selling Pressure Continues to BuildThe USOIL chart shows a strong shift from bullish structure to bearish dominance after multiple rejections from the upper resistance zone. Price respected an ascending trendline earlier, forming higher highs, but momentum weakened as sellers stepped in aggressively. A clear breakdown below support confirmed trend reversal, followed by a sharp impulsive drop 📉🔥. The current structure suggests sellers remain in control, with price struggling to recover above broken zones ❌.
Market sentiment reflects uncertainty, as it is “too soon” to plan peace talks with Iran despite reports of a near deal, downplaying prospects of imminent negotiations in Pakistan ⚠️. This keeps volatility elevated and limits bullish recovery. If Iran accepts terms, conditions may stabilize and support oil prices 🚢, but failure to agree could trigger intensified military pressure, pushing prices lower 💣.
Technically, continuation toward lower demand zones remains likely as bearish momentum stays strong 📊.
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WTI Crude Oil: Weakening Structure and the Imminent Gap FillHi!
WTI reveals a series of exhausted rallies that suggest a significant shift in market sentiment. Despite several attempts to reclaim higher ground, the price action is currently favoring the bears as structural support begins to erode.
Persistent Resistance and Failed Breakouts
The most striking feature of the recent price action is the repeated inability to maintain momentum above key levels. As noted on the chart, the market "failed to break out properly" at both the $105.00 and $97.00 marks. These failed attempts indicate a lack of buying conviction at higher valuations, creating a series of "lower highs" that weigh heavily on the short-term trend.
The Ascending Support: Price is currently clinging to a diagonal trendline. While this has provided temporary relief, the frequent retests of this line suggest it is weakening.
The Bearish Projection: Retesting the Gap
As indicated by the red projection path, the primary risk remains to the downside. If the current ascending support "breaks down," we are looking at a two-step descent:
Intermediate Pivot ($91.82): A break below the trendline likely triggers a quick move to this local support level.
The Primary Objective ($87.36): This target is the most logical destination for a breakdown. It aligns with the top of the "GAP" zone (the pink shaded area). Markets have a natural tendency to fill historical gaps, and the current weakness suggests that a return to this $84.00–$87.00 demand zone is highly probable.
Strategic Outlook
The trend has clearly transitioned from bullish to neutral-bearish. Until WTI can decisively clear the $97.00 resistance, the path of least resistance points toward a retest of lower liquidity. A confirmed hourly close below the current diagonal trendline would be the signal that the move toward the $87.36 gap fill has officially begun.
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Oil Remains Firm As Supply Risk DominatesCrude is not drifting higher by accident here; it is holding a structurally bullish tone because the market is still pricing real supply risk, not just headline fear. I’m treating this as a trend-continuation setup on the 4H chart, where every pullback is being judged against geopolitical flow, not just standard technical mean reversion.
Current Bias
I’m bullish on oil on the 4H to swing-trade timeframe. The near-term structure still favors buyers because supply-disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz is keeping a firm geopolitical premium under crude, even as the market digests periodic pullbacks.
Technical Posture & Price Action
From the chart, I see oil pulling back into a live reaction area after a strong advance toward the 106 region, and that keeps the setup constructive rather than broken. The broad 85 to 89 zone has already acted as a major demand base on prior tests, and the current retracement looks like a reset inside a larger bullish structure rather than a full reversal.
The higher timeframe picture suggests the market is still respecting higher-value support, while the lower timeframe pullback is simply testing whether buyers will defend around the 93 to 95 area before another push. If that support holds, the path back toward 106 and then 117 stays open.
Indicator & Volume Analysis
If I map momentum onto this setup, I’d expect RSI on the 4H to be cooling from prior strength rather than collapsing into bearish territory, which is what I want to see in a bullish continuation trade. MACD likely rolled over during the pullback, but the key is whether it stabilizes and curls higher as price defends support.
The moving-average picture should still lean constructive if price remains above the major swing base, and recent structure suggests volume likely expanded on the impulsive rallies and normalized on the retracement. That is typically healthy behavior in a bullish market because it shows demand drove the breakout and profit-taking drove the dip.
Key Fundamental Drivers
The immediate driver is still Middle East supply risk, especially any disruption tied to Hormuz shipping and the ability of Gulf producers to actually move barrels. OPEC+ has announced output increases, but those moves carry limited near-term weight if transit risk keeps real flows constrained.
That means the crude bid is being sustained by the market’s belief that physical supply vulnerability matters more right now than paper quota changes.
Macro Context
The macro backdrop is supportive because higher oil feeds directly into inflation expectations, which then bleeds into rate pricing, central-bank caution, and broader commodity rotation. In other words, oil is not trading in isolation; it is influencing how traders think about inflation, consumer pressure, and the timing of any meaningful Fed relief.
At the same time, there is a split in longer-horizon views: some banks still argue soft medium-term supply-demand fundamentals could eventually pull oil lower, but the market in front of us is trading the current disruption premium, not the distant normalization story.
Primary Risk to the Trend
The clearest invalidation is a credible US-Iran de-escalation that materially reopens Hormuz flows and reduces the supply shock premium. If the market becomes convinced that shipping risk is normalizing and OPEC barrels can actually reach the market cleanly, crude can unwind fast.
A second risk is a demand scare tied to weaker global growth, especially if recession concerns begin to outweigh supply fears. In that case, oil can stop behaving like a scarcity trade and start trading like a growth-sensitive asset again.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
The most important catalysts are Iran/US diplomacy, shipping-security updates around the Strait of Hormuz, and any fresh OPEC+ implementation signal. Beyond that, US inflation data and Fed communication matter because rising oil is feeding directly into inflation expectations and policy pricing.
So for this market, geopolitics is the first trigger, and macro is the second-order amplifier.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
Oil is a leader right now, not a lagger. It influences CAD, inflation expectations, energy equities, and sometimes broader risk sentiment because a sustained move in crude changes how traders price growth and policy at the same time.
If oil extends higher, I would expect CAD-sensitive pairs and inflation hedges to react quickly. If crude fades sharply, some of that support in commodity FX and inflation-sensitive trades can unwind with it.
Key Levels
Support Levels: 93.00 to 92.00 is the first active support band, then 89.00, with the major demand zone sitting around 85.00 to 86.00.
Resistance Levels: 100.00 is the first psychological barrier, then 106.21, followed by 117.71, with a larger extreme reference near 119.48.
Stop Loss (SL) & Invalidation Point: I would place the main bullish invalidation below 88.80 for a swing setup, because a sustained break under that area would signal the pullback is no longer healthy and the market is losing its higher-support structure.
Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP1 at 100.00, TP2 at 106.21, TP3 at 117.71, and an aggressive extension target near 119.48 if geopolitical stress intensifies.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
My bias on oil is bullish, and I still see this chart as a buy-the-dip structure unless price starts losing the 92 area decisively and especially the 89 to 88.80 invalidation zone. The technical picture says this is a retracement inside strength, while the fundamental picture says the market still respects real supply disruption risk far more than symbolic output adjustments.
For execution, I’d frame the trade around support holding first, not around chasing candles into resistance. As long as crude stays above the key support band, I’m targeting 100, then 106.21, and then 117.71, with the understanding that the entire bullish thesis can weaken quickly if there is a credible diplomatic breakthrough that normalizes flows through Hormuz.
1H TF: Breakout Trendline and Support Zone - Bullish today🔶 WTI UPDATE
WTI crude oil continues to rise for the second consecutive day, trading around 97.80 USD during the European session. Oil prices are gaining strong momentum as tensions in the Middle East threaten one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes.
US President Donald Trump has reportedly expressed growing frustration over stalled negotiations aimed at ending the regional conflict. Internal sources suggest the administration is now shifting more aggressively toward renewed military action, marking a significant escalation compared to previous weeks.
📌 Technical Outlook
Bullish momentum has returned after WTI successfully broke above the 96.40 resistance zone, confirming the continuation of the upward trend.
At the same time, the 1H trendline has also been broken to the upside, further supporting bullish momentum.
Price could potentially move toward the 100.00 area during today’s session.
Market structure remains bullish in the short term 🔼
📊 Personal Bias
At this stage, the market still favors further upside momentum as geopolitical tensions continue supporting oil prices.
As long as price remains above the 96.49 support zone, WTI is likely to maintain its bullish structure throughout today’s session.
📍 Resistance Zones: 99.30 / 100.60
📍 Nearest Support Zone: 96.49
🔥 Bias Today: BULLISH
Stay patient, stay sharp, and let the market do the rest 🤍
Oil Drops on Insider Trading Speculation Before U.S-Iran DealOil Drops on Insider Trading Speculation Before U.S-Iran Deal
Today, the entire market is waiting for a possible deal to end the war between the US and Iran.
Yesterday, during the opening of the London Market, the price of oil fell in a clear way for no apparent reason at first.
✅I think the positions created by the inside trade did not close with profits yesterday and the market is waiting for the news today to fall further, as shown in the chart.
✅Several oil market experts told MarketWatch that the increase in volume in the early morning seemed consistent with someone trading with prior knowledge of the report, with most of the activity occurring before 4:10 a.m. Eastern Time, before the Axios story was published.
✅Bloomberg previously reported that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was looking into suspicious activity in the oil market around social media posts and media reports that move the market, according to MarketWatch.
Main targets:
86
79
70
You can find more details on the chart.
Thank you and good luck! 🍀
⚠️PS: Do your own analysis and use your own strategy to join the trade.
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WTI OIL Channel Up targeting $107.WTI Oil (USOIL) is trading within a Channel Up that is similar to the April 19 - 24 pattern. Having also formed a 1H MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross and just closing above the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line), the pattern should now complete a +12.20% Bullish Leg, supported by the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the April pattern did.
Based on that and with the 1H RSI also flatlined, our short-term Target is $107.
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USOIL Will Move Higher! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 94.549.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 106.520.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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OIL: Another Attempt to FallOIL: Another Attempt to Fall
Oil broke out of a strong structure area indicating further growth
However, volume is very low and is not taking direction. On the other hand, Trump also wants the price to go down.
It is possible that we are in a false bullish breakout and the price may start the downward wave for the impulse wave C with targets 94.5; 86 and 79
If the price moves above the top 103.67 we may consider this setup invalidated as it may transform into something different.
You can find more details on the chart.
Thank you and good luck! 🍀
⚠️PS: Do your own analysis and use your own strategy to join the trade.
❤️ If this analysis helps your trading day, please support it with a like or comment ❤️
USOIL Price Update – Clean & Clear ExplanationCrude Oil is showing a clear shift in market structure after an extended bullish rally followed by strong rejection from the top resistance zone.
Technically Price initially respected an upward trendline, creating higher highs and strong bullish momentum. However, after reaching the major supply area around 107–108 zone, sellers stepped in aggressively, causing a strong reversal and breaking the short-term bullish structure.
Major resistance zone: 107.0 – 108.0
Mid resistance / reaction zone: 104.8 – 105.5
Key support zone: 100.0 psychological level
Next downside liquidity target: 98.0 – 95.0
If the Price is now trading below the mid-range structure and showing lower highs, indicating bearish pressure building. Every minor pullback is getting sold, which suggests sellers are currently in control if price fails to reclaim the 104–105 zone, the probability increases for continuation toward 100 break and liquidity sweep below 98–95 region.
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Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area 94.00.The downtrend is continuing within the intermediate-degree Wave 3. The previous scenario remains valid, and I expect that the movement within the minor-degree Wave 2 is now coming to an end or has already ended in the vicinity of the 109.500 level.
This means I expect prices to fall to at least 94.00 as part of the movement in wave “3” of both the minor and intermediate orders.
Don’t set your sights too far ahead—let’s focus on the immediate targets! Good luck and patience to everyone!
WTI Oil Eyes 105.15 Amid Middle East TensionsUSOIL WTI | Middle East Tensions Keep Oil Highly Volatile
Oil prices remain strongly supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Technically, the market recovered sharply from the 86.97 support zone and is now trading above the key pivot area around 98.40, which confirms bullish pressure in the short term.
The current structure suggests the market is preparing for another bullish leg, especially if geopolitical escalation continues or inflation data supports higher energy prices.
echnically:
As long as price trades above 98.40, bullish momentum remains active toward 105.15, and a breakout above this level would extend gains toward 115.00 → 120.20.
The market is currently consolidating within the 98.40 – 105.15 zone before the next major breakout.
A short-term correction toward the pivot area remains possible before continuation higher.
However, a 4H candle close below 98.40 would shift momentum bearish and trigger a correction toward 92.30 → 86.97.
Market Structure:
Above 98.40 = bullish structure
Geopolitical escalation = supports oil upside
De-escalation = correction risk
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 98.40
Support: 92.30 – 86.97 – 76.97
Resistance: 105.15 – 115.00 – 120.20
Continuously breaking below support zones, Continue declining 🛎WTI Update :
👉 Crude oil prices continue to decline for the third consecutive day, with US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading around $90.66. Progress in US-Iran peace negotiations has fueled speculation about the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A report from Al-Hadath, citing sources close to the talks, stated that urgent discussions are underway regarding the gradual reopening of the strait — a key passage responsible for nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply.
✍️Personal view:
👉 A potential agreement between the US and Iran continues to weigh on oil prices and may push the market lower throughout today’s session.
👉 At the same time, WTI keeps breaking below important support zones without showing signs of recovery, indicating that sellers still remain firmly in control of the market.
👉 WTI is expected to maintain its bearish momentum today, with the next target around the 86.00 area.
Resistance zone: 91.50
Nearest support zones: 87.80 ; 85.20
Wishing you a successful trading day💰
Oil (PART 2) | Triangle at a Decision PointIn this video, we break down the current structure developing in US Oil and why price action may be more complex than most traders think.
We’ll look at the larger corrective pattern forming on the higher timeframes, key levels that could decide the next major move, and why both bullish and bearish scenarios remain valid for now.
A deep dive into market structure, Elliott Wave context, momentum, and what traders should be watching next.
Oil prices have once again secured the$100mark.What should we doOil prices have once again secured the $100 mark. What should we do?
The international crude oil market continued its strong upward trend this week, with prices rising for several consecutive trading days. On Tuesday, prices reached a high of around $102.50, before slightly retreating during Wednesday's Asian session, and are currently trading around $100.50. Investor concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies have continued to intensify, pushing oil prices back above the $100 mark, reaching a significant high in recent times.
The core driver of this rise remains the impact of the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global energy transportation. US President Trump publicly rejected Tehran's latest peace proposal this week, stating that the current ceasefire is "close to failure." This means that the likelihood of normal shipping through the strait returning in the short term has further decreased, and market risk aversion has clearly increased.
From a technical perspective, the WTI crude oil daily chart still maintains a clear bullish trend. Currently, the price is trading above $100 and has not broken below the medium-term moving average support, indicating that the medium-to-long-term upward structure has not been damaged. Despite a previous pullback in oil prices from the $105 area, the overall trend remains strong.
On the 4-hour chart, WTI crude oil continues its short-term consolidation at higher levels. The stochastic RSI indicator is around 42, indicating neutral to slightly bullish market momentum. Short-term price action is more likely to be a consolidation at higher levels than a trend reversal.
Trading signals: Short-term support is initially at the psychological support level of $100. A break below this level could lead to a further test of the $95.00 support area. On the upside, given the lack of significant technical resistance, the $105 level will be the most important battleground for bulls and bears in the next phase. A successful break above this level could open up new upside potential.
BUY: 99.8-100.4
TP: 101-101.5-101.8
SL: 99.3
US OIL analysis as per elliott wave.Market Context & Wave Analysis Current Price: US Oil (WTI) is currently trading around 95.95 to 97.26. It has seen a sharp 2.5%–3% jump today due to renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz.Correction Target ($102.14): Your target of 102.14 sits just above a major psychological resistance at $100. as per Elliott Wave analysis currently see this as a potential "Wave B" or "Wave 2" peak. If the price reaches target of 102.14, it would likely complete a corrective structure before a "Wave C" and " decline begins.The "Big Fall": Fundamental forecasts from the EIA and analysts at NAGA support your bearish outlook for the second half of 2026. While geopolitical risks are pushing prices up now, they project WTI could fall toward $74 by the end of the year as supply outpaces consumption.
Demand Zone Reaction in USOIL After Sharp Selloff on 4H TFI observed a strong bearish reaction after price completed an impulsive bullish expansion toward the recent highs. The market initially rallied aggressively from the prior low, creating a clear recovery structure with consecutive higher highs and higher lows. This bullish momentum eventually pushed price into a premium area near previous resistance, where selling pressure began to emerge.
After reaching the highs, price failed to maintain bullish continuation and started rotating downward with increasing bearish momentum. The rejection from the upper region was sharp and impulsive, indicating that supply entered the market aggressively and shifted short-term control back toward sellers. The recent decline also broke below several short-term support levels, confirming weakness after the prior rally.
As price continued downward, it swept liquidity beneath recent lows and tapped into a previously identified demand zone. A reaction has already started from this area, with a temporary bounce forming after the sharp selloff. This suggests that buyers are attempting to defend the zone despite the broader bearish pressure currently visible in the structure.
Currently, price is reacting from a key demand region following an impulsive bearish decline from the highs.
Speculative Outlook:
Price is now positioned within a significant demand zone, making this area an important short-term decision point. If buyers successfully defend the zone, the market may form a recovery bounce and attempt a corrective move back toward nearby resistance levels.
There is also a possibility of another liquidity sweep below the current lows, where price briefly trades deeper into the demand zone before reversing upward and trapping late sellers.
However, if bearish momentum remains dominant and price closes below the demand region with strength, it would confirm continuation of the current bearish rotation and open the path for further downside expansion. This makes the current area critical for determining whether the market enters a temporary recovery phase or continues its bearish decline.






















