GTOFF trade ideas
GOTO: Price Action Analysis After TikTok's AcquisitionTikTok, owned by ByteDance Ltd., has entered into a significant agreement to invest $1.5 billion in a joint venture with Indonesia's GoTo Group. As part of this deal, TikTok will acquire 75.01% of GoTo's PT Tokopedia for $840 million. This strategic move involves integrating TikTok Shop's Indonesia business into the expanded entity, marking TikTok's return to the e-commerce landscape in Indonesia. The partnership aims to navigate and strengthen the online retail market, presenting a substantial investment by TikTok in the region. The acquisition is set to reshape the e-commerce landscape and boost market competition.
The initial market response has been negative, potentially influenced by profit-taking after a strong run-up. Some analysts believe the negative sentiment could stem from concerns regarding the impact of the acquisition on both TikTok and Tokopedia's market positions.
Now, Let's delve deeper into the technical analysis of GOTO
After facing multiple rejections around a significant resistance area and a dynamic resistance line (EMA 200 Line), the price exhibited the formation of a rising wedge pattern. This pattern, marked by two converging upward-trending lines, saw a subsequent breakout characterized by a bearish Marubozu candlestick and a notable increase in trading volume. This occurrence suggests a continuation of the bearish trend, emphasizing the strong selling pressure in the market. The confirmation of this potential bearish scenario is further supported by the MACD Indicator, which exhibited a death cross. The convergence of these technical signals indicates a robust indication of ongoing bearish momentum toward the target area.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on IDX:GOTO ."
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GOTO DOWN -85%? Honestly, one of the companies IDX:GOTO that was waiting for the increase in 2022 and the IPO was postponed in 2021 due to covid and now after the IPO it has dropped 85%.
there will be a scenario that I make if it will make a double bottom then there will be an increase after that and return to the 129 area again.
GOTOThis analysis is using Fan principle & Fibonacci to conclude about the support
The trend line has been penetrated 3 times, meaning there is confirmation of new trend from uptrend to downtrend.
Using fibonacci we can measure the support is on 104 (0.618 line)
Buy: 100-104
Sell: 110-120
Stop loss: 5% from buy price
Is a Sub-50 IDR Per Share Price Imminent?It seems that GOTO's future is not looking too bright at the moment.
Despite being in a downtrend channel, there are no bullish signals indicating a potential price increase in the near future. Additionally, the FY2022 income statement shows that GOTO has not booked any profit and has actually incurred a loss of 2.6 billion dollars. This is not a good sign for investors, as it is generally not advisable to invest in a company that is losing money.
As a result, it is not surprising that GOTO's stock price could potentially hit below 50 IDR per share. While GOTO's business may be impactful to Indonesia, the harsh reality is that loss is still a loss, and investors are likely to shy away from putting their money into a company that is not generating any profits.
GOTOWednesday, 10 August 2022
11:57 AM (WIB)
TOKOPEDIA
Founded in 2009, Tokopedia as a technology company aims to achieve economic equality digitally by connecting sellers with consumers in Indonesia. With more than 270 million people spread over 17,000 islands, creating equal access to various products and services is a challenge in Indonesia. In addition, opportunities for growth are often only available to people who live in big cities with better access to technology and infrastructure, and this results in wide social inequality in Indonesia. Prior to the presence of Tokopedia, consumers had to pay for the same product at different prices, and depending on their domicile, meanwhile limited capital was a serious obstacle for pioneering entrepreneurs in small towns to start a business and gain access to a wider market. Tokopedia's marketplace service tries to address this gap by building bridges between sellers and buyers. Since its inception, Tokopedia has succeeded in connecting millions of active users through various services and products as well as helping millions of sellers throughout Indonesia to develop their businesses online. Over the years, Tokopedia has been able to become a pioneer of digital transformation in the country.
GOJEK
Gojek is Southeast Asia's leading on-demand platform, which aims to empower micro-entrepreneurs to create services that make cities more accessible and attractive. Gojek was founded with inspiration stemming from the observation that the great potential of the informal economy of motorcycle taxi drivers in Indonesia can help overcome consumer problems in navigating amidst the congestion of cities in Indonesia. Gojek was founded in 2010 as a call center, connecting these groups and since then has grown rapidly, changing urban life for the better. Currently, the Gojek application has a variety of products and services including mobility, food delivery, logistics, and others that help consumers and improve the livelihoods of driver partners and business partners. Our platform consists of more than 2.5 million driver partners across Indonesia, Vietnam, and Singapore. Through Gojek's technology, we also open up opportunities for business partners to develop their businesses and generate more economic benefits.
GOTO FINANCIAL
GoTo Financial started with the launch of GoPay in 2016 as a payment solution designed to enable Gojek driver-partners and passengers to make non-cash transactions easily on the busy streets of Jakarta. Now, GoTo Financial offers a variety of digital payment services, financial services and business solutions that are widely used by consumers, business partners, and driver partners. These services were developed to help customers manage everything related to finances, so they can easily shop, monitor expenses, access loans, buy insurance, save, invest, build a business, and many others. GoTo Financial services designed for consumers include GoPay, GoPayLater and various other financial products. GoTo Financial also serves businesses of all sizes through Midtrans - a leading payment gateway; Moka and GoBiz PLUS - the largest POS (point of sale) network in Indonesia; and the GoBiz, GoStore, and Selly platforms that help improve business effectiveness.
GOTO poor financials with increasingly bad market conditionsIDX:GOTO shows weakness post IPO, which is no surprise given very weak financials and current market conditions.
Reported financials:
1 Jan - 31 Jul 2021: revenue 2,516,300,000,000 IDR with loss for the period 8,169,471,000,000 IDR! - loss 3.2 times the revenue!
1 Jan - 31 Dec 2020: revenue 3,327,875,000,000 IDR with loss for the period 16,735,217,000,000 IDR!
Not a single profitable year was reported in the IPO prospect.
The IPO was heavily promoted in media, but prospectus shows no substance. The revenue growth is weak, indicating the opportunity for further growth is very limited, especially post pandemic restrictions. The competition from other Asian players e.g. Shopee, Grab is also increasing. GOTO also fails competing in regional markets.
The company will be heavily impacted by the increasing prices of gasoline in Asia, where inefficient delivery of goods by motorbikes may no longer be economically viable. Customers will likely opt to using public transport more, reducing the revenue.
Disclaimer: This is my private opinion. The information is not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice or recommendation of any sort.
