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Nov 272023

SPX: S&P 500 Futures Drift Lower by 0.2% After Closing Fourth Straight Week of Gains

Bets that the Fed has exhausted its rate-setting campaign fueled the recent broad-based move to the upside. PCE data ahead.

  • Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 ticked down ahead of Monday’s opening bell. Investors are cautiously stepping back into full-time dealmaking after the shortened Thanksgiving week was the fourth winning one in a row. On Friday, the S&P 500 added a modest 0.1% propelled by light trading volume.
  • The indexed collection of 500 companies, weighted by capitalization is up 8.7% on the month, falling behind its tech-focused peer the Nasdaq Composite, which is up 11%. The most recent trigger for stocks to power higher was the optimistic inflation report for October, when consumer prices logged a 3.2% annual increase.
  • Looking ahead, money managers will be watching for the figures from October’s personal-consumption expenditures index. PCE, in short, is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Expectations are set for a fairly cool 3.5% growth. Anywhere below that will be another reason for markets to believe that the Fed can nail the soft landing.
Illustration by TradingView
Nov 212023

SPX: S&P 500 Rises 0.8% to Exit Correction Zone Ahead of Key Earnings, Fed Minutes

Nvidia is on the earnings deck today and analysts expect to see a 500% profit increase. The Fed’s minutes will be released too.

  • The S&P 500 notched a 0.8% gain to kick off the Holiday-shortened week. Enthusiastic investors scooped up mostly shares of big tech companies with Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) and Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) blasting off to record highs at the same time.
  • Let’s break it down: it’s Nvidia’s earnings day and Wall Street expects a massive 500% profit jump from the previous quarter. In the meantime, Microsoft rallied on the news that it was hiring OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman to lead an in-house AI team just two days after he was ousted from OpenAI’s CEO seat.
  • In that context, the broad-based S&P 500 is riding on an 8.4% monthly rise and 18% year-to-date increase. With the recent gain, the index exited a correction territory – a drop of more than 10% but less than 20%. Next up: the Federal Reserve will release its minutes from the latest meeting and traders will be parsing the report for insights into the rate-hike timeline.
Illustration by TradingView
Nov 152023

SPX: S&P 500 Rallies 2% for Best Day Since April on Traders’ Bets Inflation Has Peaked

The stock-market rally got new legs Tuesday, fueled by lower-than-expected consumer-price data. Futures ticked up.

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) added a hefty 2% on Tuesday after investors from every market corner celebrated a slowdown in inflation. Consumer prices for October eased more than anticipated at 3.2% from a year ago, sliding under September’s 3.7% increase and below the consensus call for a 3.3% rise.
  • The 500-strong Wall Street average’s big gains led to the index’s best single-day performance since April. Its two peers, the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, were also heavily snapped up, adding 2.4% and 1.4%, respectively. Futures on Wednesday ticked higher ahead of the bell.
  • Market moods are now largely pricing in that inflation is already in the rearview mirror. In turn, this conviction is pushing emboldened investors to return to their risk-on exposure, betting that the Federal Reserve has wrapped up its aggressive campaign of interest-rate hikes.
Illustration by TradingView
Nov 082023

SPX: S&P 500 Adds 7th Straight Winning Session as Tech Shares Lead the Push

The broad-based Wall Street benchmark is riding on a streak unseen since 2021. Plus, Microsoft shares hit an all-time high.

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) shifted gears to log its seventh straight session of gains on Tuesday. It’s the longest winning streak for the index since 2021 when ample capital was moving fast and lifting stocks to record highs. On that note, Microsoft stock hit a fresh all-time high of $360.53 a share. The software giant is now sitting on a valuation of $2.7tn, roughly $100bn under iPhone maker Apple.
  • The broad-based benchmark added 0.3% on the day as technology companies did most of the heavy lifting. The S&P 500 was joined by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, also in a seven-day gaining phase. The Nasdaq Composite led the way with a 0.9% increase to close its eight straight winning day.
  • All three indexes are powering to the upside, charged by the prospects of the Federal Reserve’s campaign finally coming to an expected end. The S&P 500 is now higher by 14% on the year, while the Dow is off the ground by a modest 3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up 30% since January.
Illustration by TradingView
Nov 032023

SPX: S&P 500 Rallies 1.9% in Best Day since April as Post-Fed Optimism Builds Up

Market sentiment was quick to shift with the broad-based index on track to secure a 5% weekly gain. Futures turned lower.

  • The S&P 500 index (SPX) extended its post-Fed rally on Thursday after Federal Reserve chief Jay Powell assuaged investor fears over the interest-rate trajectory. The broad-based Wall Street favorite gained 1.9% for its best day since April and was the biggest winner of the clique of three. What’s more, it’s now on track to finish this week higher by an impressive 5%.
  • The Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day in the green by 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively. Overall, the best session in six months for stocks was cheered by money managers after the US central bank held rates steady at its Wednesday meeting and will likely do the same at its upcoming December meeting.
  • Looking ahead, futures on Friday morning floated slightly in the red. Cautiousness set in ahead of the keenly-watched nonfarm payrolls due later today. The data, casually known as the jobs report, is expected to show US employers added 180,000 new hires to the labor force in October, down from the 336,000 in September.
Illustration by TradingView
Oct 302023

SPX: S&P 500 Slips 10% from Peak After Another Battering Week Despite Solid Earnings

About half of all 500 companies in the broad index have reported and 78% of them have surpassed earnings expectations. But the crowds go mild.

  • The S&P 500 (ticker: SPX) is now trading 10% below its recent peak, joining the Nasdaq Composite in what’s called the correction zone. After fluctuating above and beyond the flatline for most of Friday’s trading, Wall Street’s broad stock gauge declined 0.5% on the day, logging a losing week.
  • Massively positive earnings data doesn’t do much to help lift the gloomy market sentiment. Just about 50% of all public companies living in the S&P 500 have shown up with their third-quarter financials. And data is bright: 78% of them have shattered analysts’ earnings calls and 62% have topped revenue views.
  • Quick stats roundup: October has so far erased about 4% of the S&P 500’s worth. What’s more, the equity benchmark is en route to close its third straight month in the red. Futures contracts on Monday remained under pressure as investors stayed cautiously optimistic with more earnings down the line.
Illustration by TradingView
Oct 252023

SPX: S&P 500 Snaps 5-Day Losing Streak as Big Tech Earnings Spark Growth Enthusiasm

It’s the week of the Magnificent Seven and all eyes are on the big boys in the tech industry. Microsoft and Alphabet already had their turn.

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) snapped five straight days of losses on Tuesday after market moods got a lift from optimistic Big Tech earnings expectations. The broad-based Wall Street average added a little over 0.7% on the day, joined by its two peers. The Dow Jones gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite closed 1% higher.
  • On deck to update September-quarter financials is the Magnificent Seven – your Big Tech pack of America’s most powerful technology juggernauts. Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) and Google parent Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL)had their moment yesterday after the bell. Both firms beat earnings and revenue expectations.
  • Next up on the earnings board is Meta Platforms (ticker: META). The owner of Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, and Threads (almost forgot this one) will be scrutinized over its ad revenue. More precisely, Wall Street expects a 21% growth in the company’s biggest cash generator. Revenue guidance sits at $32bn to $34.5bn.
Illustration by TradingView
Oct 192023

SPX: S&P 500 Washes Out 1.3% as Q3 Earnings Updates Start Swinging

Third-quarter financial reports are flowing in as investors parse through mixed data, trying to figure out what’s going on.

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) dropped 1.3% Wednesday as earnings data from America’s public companies started to pile in. The broad-based Wall Street benchmark was joined by its two peers – the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq – which slipped 1% and 1.6%, respectively.
  • It’s the big banks turn to present corporate earnings. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs fared particularly well during the September quarter. Tesla (ticker: TSLA) disappointed with an earnings miss, leading the stock to a 4.5% after-hours fall, building on the last session’s 4.8% drop. Netflix stock (ticker: NFLX) jumped a mighty 13% after the close on solid earnings.
  • In other news, rising bond yields shifted investor attention away from stocks. The yield on the 10-year traded above 4.9%, hitting a 16-year high. Elevated yields make borrowing more expensive. Thanks to the bonds' risk-free returns, they chip away at the stocks’ attractiveness.
Illustration by TradingView
Oct 102023

SPX: S&P 500 Reverses Losses to Add 0.6% After Fed Vows to Leave Rates Unchanged

Futures early on Tuesday were in the green with investors feeling more confident to own the risky assets.

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) erased early-Monday losses, prompted by the surprisingly fast escalation of the Israel-Hamas war. As the session unfurled, stocks got their mojo back, leading the S&P 500 to close the day with a 0.6% gain. The other two benchmark indexes were also in the green.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished higher by 0.6% as well, and the Nasdaq Composite wrapped up with a modest 0.4% increase. Dovish comments by Federal Reserve officials further stimulated the buying momentum. A report came out, saying policymakers will “proceed carefully” and avoid an interest-rate hike at the Oct 31 – Nov 1 meeting.
  • Futures contracts tied to the major averages flickered in the green as the Israel-Hamas war entered its fourth day. Tomorrow, markets will be parsing the Fed’s meeting minutes and on Thursday shift their attention to the keenly-watched inflation data, expected to show prices rose 3.6% in September.
Federalreserve
Oct 062023

SPX: S&P 500 Pulls Back 0.1% in Broad Market Retreat Ahead of Jobs Report

Wall Street is eyeballing a cool 163,000 new jobs created in September. Futures early Friday turned higher and the dollar flatlined.

  • The S&P 500 index (ticker: SPX) ticked 0.1% lower Thursday as markets turned risk-averse ahead of September’s key jobs data. The nonfarm payrolls, on deck for release later today, will be closely watched as a gauge for the pulse of the US job market. Expectations are set for 163,000 people tapped to join the US economy, down from 187,000 in August.
  • A figure too high will suggest more Fed action would be needed on the interest-rate front. And a figure too low will ease investors’ concerns, indicating a cooling economy. Yesterday’s jobless claims could serve as a precursor after data showed 207,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits over the past week, below the 210,000 forecast.
  • Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 reversed the broad index’s decline and pointed to a green opening. The other two major benchmarks, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq, were also up in pre-market deals today, after closing yesterday’s session with modest losses. The US dollar, in the meantime, has gone quiet ahead of the jobs report with forex traders looking to ride out upcoming volatility.
lo lo / Unsplash
Oct 022023

SPX: Stocks Log Worst Month of 2023 as Tough-Stretch Earnings Loom

The S&P 500 languishes near its June lows as markets registered a losing month and a losing quarter. Earnings arrive next week.

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) wrapped up a bruising September, which lived up to its nature as a killjoy. The broad-based stock index posted a 4.9% decline in September, joined by its two peers. The Dow Jones (DJI) lost 3.5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) erased a sizable 5.8% bite for the month.
  • Stocks turned in their worst month of 2023. What’s even worse – their monthly performance reversed a winning July and a grinding August, posting a loss for the full third quarter. The overhang was not that inflation may flare up again, but rather that interest rates are staying higher for longer.
  • On the heels of a Fed pause, troubles over budget negotiations, and rising oil prices, traders are gearing up to get the latest earnings scoops. The third quarter is officially wrapped up and that can only mean one thing – JPMorgan (ticker: JPM) and the big banks guild are kicking off the quarterly updates next week.
Nick Chong / Unsplash
Sep 262023

SPX: S&P 500 Posts Modest 0.4% Gain to Snap 4-Day Losing Streak. Futures Drop.

Traders will be looking to find out what the latest PCE figure shows as they sink into the ‘higher-for-longer’ rate environment.

  • Just before stocks logged their longest losing streak for the year, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose to break the chain. After four declining sessions in a row, the broad-based index posted a minor gain of 0.4%. Futures on Tuesday, however, are threatening to erase that rise as they flash a drop at the open of 0.6%.
  • The S&P 500’s two peers also enjoyed market optimism to start the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average pumped 0.1% on the day, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.5%. Futures contracts tied to the 30-stock benchmark and the tech-heavy index were also in decline earlier today.
  • An eventful week is shaping up ahead as finance bros will be digesting the news that rates are staying higher for longer. But also, markets are in for the latest PCE data – the personal-consumption expenditures price index is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. The figure is expected to land at 3.9% from a year ago.
Illustration by TradingView
Sep 212023

SPX: Stocks Knocked with S&P 500 Down 1% as Fed Skips Hike but Not Done Raising

The Federal Reserve paused its hike campaign but Jay Powell and co are largely in favor of at least a hike more this year.

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) tumbled 1% after the Fed’s latest update showed policymakers aren’t too worried over recession prospects and will keep rates higher for longer. While they did skip a hike yesterday, central bank officials projected at least one interest-rate bump this year. And… wait for it…
  • The Fed is deep into the “soft landing” camp as Fed boss Jay Powell penciled in fewer rate cuts for the next two years. Wall Street was quick to speculate that the first rate trim could be coming in the fourth quarter of 2024. The forecast was pushed back from a prior estimation of a slash expected in the second quarter.
  • On the news, the falling S&P 500 was joined by an even bigger loser – the Nasdaq Composite gave up 1.5% on Wednesday. The blue-chip Dow Jones was also in disbelief and retreated some 77 points, or 0.2%, on the day. Futures early on Thursday moved further in the red, pointing to extended losses at the opening bell in New York.
Illustration by TradingView
Sep 062023

SPX: Stocks Sink Into Slow, Shortened Week, S&P 500 Futures Extend Decline

All three major stock indexes drifted lower on Tuesday. Futures on Wednesday moved under the flatline. No major news on deck.

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) slipped to start a Holiday-shortened week and Wednesday’s futures deals are not looking any brighter. The broad-based market average declined 0.4% yesterday, followed by the Nasdaq Composite’s 0.1% loss. The blue-chip Dow Jones was the biggest loser - down nearly 200 points, or 0.6% on the day.
  • The week isn’t promising plenty of excitement for traders. Futures contracts tied to the three indexes are all lower by 0.2% or more in pre-market dealmaking Wednesday. No big data or major economic news are on deck, giving markets some time to sit back, relax, and reassess recent reports.
  • The slow start of September is in line with a historically sluggish time of the year. Market participants have about a week before the next market-moving release. Inflation data out of the US, scheduled for next Wednesday, will help determine the probability of another rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
Ussama Azam / Unsplash
Sep 012023

SPX: Stock Rally Loses Steam as S&P 500 Snaps 5-Month Winning Streak

The three major stock averages declined in August, a month usually seen as weak. September kicks off with jobs data on day one.

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) declined on the final day of August to cap a losing month, coming off a five-month winning streak. The August doldrums, generally following tradition, were obvious in the other two leading stock benchmarks, too. The S&P 500 erased 1.5% for the month, putting it third in line, following the Dow’s 2.5% loss and the Nasdaq’s 1.7% drop in August.
  • Now that this is behind, investors are already on their toes for what comes next. September wastes no time and kicks off with the nonfarm payrolls report for the glum August. Analysts are eyeballing 170,000 as the number of new hires added by US employers. Anything below July’s 187,000 will be a sign of a continuously cooling jobs market.
  • Futures contracts tied to the major averages were mostly looking to the upside on Friday. The S&P 500 was poised to open higher by about 0.1%, while the Dow Jones was floating higher by 0.2% in pre-market deals. The Nasdaq Composite was moving under the flatline as traders rolled up the sleeves for an action-packed month.
Illustration by TradingView
Aug 292023

SPX: S&P 500 Kicks Off Final Week of August with Modest Gains, Futures Edge Higher

Markets are looking to close a gloomy August in the red after a super strong first seven months. Here’s what’s happening today.

  • The S&P 500 (ticker: SPX) advanced to start the week and futures are looking to extend its promising start for the final trading days of August. The broad-based index notched a 0.6% gain on Monday. Early on Tuesday, futures contracts are pointing at a modest 0.1% increase.
  • In August, investors were largely fearful to go out there and throw new cash at equities, following a monster seven-month rally across the board. Besides the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones are looking to close this month to the downside by 2% or more each.
  • Up next, traders’ eyes will be peeled for Friday’s jobs report. The keenly anticipated data will highlight the pace of hiring. This, in turn, will highlight the rate at which the US economy is cooling, underpinned by the most aggressive rate-hike campaign in decades.
Illustration by TradingView
Aug 232023

SPX: S&P 500 Slips 0.3% on New Bank Rating Woes, Consumer Spending Concerns

Another round of bank downgrades swept market optimism in a volatile week with Fed Chair Jay Powell set to cap it off on Friday.

  • The S&P 500 index (ticker: SPX) dropped on Tuesday, cooling off the highly upbeat start of the week. The broad-based index declined 0.3% as new banking jitters appeared, coupled with brewing worries that consumer spending is getting hammered by high interest rates.
  • Firstly, rating agency Standard & Poor’s cut its ratings on five US regional banks, leading to a selloff in the financials sector of the S&P 500. The new round of ratings reduction comes after Moody’s slapped midsized banks with lower ratings and said it may decide to go after the big banks on Wall Street.
  • Other events on focus this week: retailers’ earnings reports signaled consumer spending has stalled in the second quarter. Macy’s shares (ticker: M) fell 14% as shoppers didn’t shop as much as expected. Finally, Fed boss Jay Powell is speaking on Friday and finance bros will look for clues to the trajectory of interest rates.
Pedro Forester Da Silva / Unsplash
Aug 162023

SPX: Hot Retail Sales Data Knocks 1.2% Off S&P 500, Futures Flip to the Upside

All three major indexes logged Tuesday in the red after the mighty US consumer continued to buoy the spending trajectory higher.

  • The S&P 500 (ticker: SPX) fell on Tuesday, joined by its two peers, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq Composite. The broad-based stock index declined 1.2% on the day, while the 30-stock average and the tech-heavy benchmark erased 1% and 1.1%, respectively.
  • What spooked investors was another hot reading from the US. The world’s biggest economy is showing no signs of slowing down as shoppers boosted July’s retail spending at the fastest clip this year. Retail sales, an index that shows the rate of spending online and onsite, rose 0.7% for July, on a monthly basis.
  • Futures contracts tied to the major averages were looking up early on Wednesday as investors are zeroing in on the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the latest meeting three weeks ago. In the report, markets will be parsing for clues over the rate-hike campaign’s future. The release is scheduled for 2 p.m. EST.
Illustration by TradingView
Aug 152023

SPX: S&P 500 Futures Threaten to Erase Positive Start of Week with 0.6% Monday Gain

Futures contracts pared back almost all Monday gains as investors got on the defensive again. Retailers are next in line to report earnings.

  • Futures on the S&P 500 were tilted to the downside by some 0.5% Tuesday morning. The U-turn comes after a bright weekly opening with a 0.6% Monday gain for the broad-based index. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% on Monday but futures contracts were lower by 0.4%.
  • August hasn’t been easy for traders. In fact, it may be a reality check after an upbeat 7-month performance, especially for Wall Street’s tech-loaded index. So far into the month, the S&P 500 has lost about 2.7%, the Nasdaq is down roughly 5%, and the Dow Jones is fairly flat with a 0.8% decline.
  • Retailers are on deck to report quarterly earnings figures this week. We’ll be hearing latest updates from Home Depot (ticker: HD), Walmart (ticker: WMT), and Target (TGT), among others. The reports will show the resiliency of the mighty US consumer and whether there’s been a slowdown in spending.
Illustration by TradingView
Aug 092023

SPX: S&P 500 Falls 0.4% as Moody’s Slaps Midsized Banks with Downgrades

All three stock indexes finished Tuesday lower after 10 regional lenders received a bad review. Someone got a little… moody.

  • The S&P 500 (ticker: SPX) pulled back on Tuesday as investors cautiously retreated their bets in the face of a new threat. Credit-rating agency Moody’s downgraded 10 US regional banks, citing increased concerns over deposits’ slowdown, pressure on funding, and some vulnerabilities in liquidity provision.
  • Moody’s went further to say it is now investigating six larger banks and could go ahead and cut their credit ratings too. Stocks across the board sank on Tuesday, with bank stocks leading the decline. The broad-based S&P 500 lost 0.4%, the Dow tumbled just under 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8% on the day.
  • All three stock averages reversed a super Monday where the Dow pumped more than 400 points. Still, it’s not all bad. The S&P 500 erased the bigger part of its daily drop of 1.2%. Adding to the gloomy sentiment, China’s exports fell 14.5% in July from the same time a year ago. Imports fell more than expected at 12.4%.
Dan Macy / Flickr