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The Pullback Playbook: Buy the Dip or Bail Out?Markets don’t go up in straight lines. Even the strongest trends pause, retrace, and test your conviction. These pauses are called pullbacks and they can either be healthy breathers before the next leg higher or the first cracks in a trend about to fall apart. The challenge for traders is knowing the difference. 📉 What Exactly Is a Pullback? Think of a pullback as a temporary trend halt, not necessarily a crash. The price moves against the prevailing trend for a short period, testing support levels or shaking out weak hands before deciding where to go next. They’re common, normal, and — if managed right — they’re opportunities rather than threats. But here’s where it gets tricky: not all pullbacks are trend halts. Some are the start of a flat-out reversal. And unless you’re comfortable holding through a potential nosedive, you need skills and tools to tell which is which. 🧐 Pullbacks vs. Trend Reversals So how do know if you’re looking at a pullback or a trend reversal? The main differentiating factor is the length of the move. The healthy pullback looks orderly — modest in size, controlled in volume, and often retracing to familiar moving averages or support zones. A healthy pullback might retrace 3-5% in a bull run, testing the 20- or 50-day moving average before bouncing higher. A trend reversal barrels through multiple support levels in days, erasing weeks of gains. It’s often sharper, louder, and driven by news or panic. Signs of a healthy pullback include: • Price holding above key moving averages (20, 50-day. Some stretch to the 100-day but these tend to be rare — it’s more likely a trend reversal by then). • Volume shrinking on the way down, then swelling on the rebound. • Oscillators like RSI cooling off from overbought territory without plunging into oversold. Trend reversals look more like: • Breaks of multiple support levels in one go. • Heavy, accelerating sell volume. • Headlines driving panic: tariffs, central bank surprises, data releases from the Economic calendar , crypto exchange blowups, or noise coming from the Earnings calendar . 📊 Technical Tools to Judge the Dip Charts can’t predict the future, but they can help you gauge probabilities. Pullbacks often line up with Fibonacci retracements, moving averages, or horizontal support and resistance levels. • Moving Averages : If price pulls back to the 50-day and holds, that’s often a green light for trend continuation. If it slices straight through the 100-day? Not so healthy. • Trendlines : Respecting the line = confidence. Breaking it = trouble. • Volume : Low-volume pullbacks suggest sellers aren’t that committed. High-volume dumps are red flags. None of these are crystal balls. But together, they give you a framework to avoid buying every dip. 🏄‍♂️ The Psychology of Buying the Dip Why do traders love dips? Because everyone wants a discount. A pullback offers a chance to jump on a trend at a better price, and social media culture has turned “buy the dip” into a meme strategy. But memes don’t pay the bills when a dip turns into a crater. The psychology works both ways: • Optimists see dips as golden tickets. • Pessimists see them as traps. • Realists know both can be true, depending on the setup. Being aware of your own bias — whether you lean toward buying too early or panicking too soon — is half the battle. 🔄 Asymmetric Risk and the Smart Bet Here’s where it gets interesting. You don’t need to be right all the time if your risk-reward ratio is skewed in your favor. A tight stop and a wide target can mean one win cancels out several small losses. Imagine risking 1% to potentially make 10%. Even if you’re wrong most of the time, the math can work. Pullbacks are prime territory for asymmetric setups: smart, thought-out entries, clear invalidation points (below support, trendline breaks), and attractive upside if the trend resumes. This doesn’t mean chasing every dip. A pullback can wipe your position clean if you’ve placed your stop loss a little too close, a little too early. ⏳ Timing Matters The biggest mistake with pullbacks is trying to catch the exact bottom. Traders love to brag about nailing the wick, but most who try end up paying for it. Smarter is to wait for confirmation — a bounce, a reversal candle, a break back above a short-term moving average. Yes, you may miss the lowest price. But you’ll also miss buying into a freefall. 🌍 Pullbacks in Context Context is everything. A dip in a raging bull market is not the same as a dip in a shaky sideways market. Macro matters too. If the Fed is cutting rates , risk assets might rebound fast. If tariffs, wars, or inflation are spiking, a pullback could turn into something bigger and deeper. That’s why traders zoom out before diving in. Daily charts tell one story; weekly charts often tell the bigger tale. 🚀 Buy or Bail? So, do you buy the dip or bail out? The honest answer is: it depends. A well-structured pullback in a strong uptrend with unchanged fundamentals is an opportunity. A violent, volume-heavy selloff in a fragile market with cracked fundamentals is a warning. The pullback dilemma isn’t just about charts but also about psychology. Can you hold your nerve when the market wobbles, or will you cut and run? Both choices can be right in the right context. 🎯 Final Takeaway Pullbacks are part of every trend’s DNA. They test conviction, patience, and risk management. The key isn’t to predict every wiggle but to recognize whether price action is just cooling off or signaling something bigger. Stay disciplined, respect your stops, and let the chart, not the noise, tell you when it’s time to stay in or step aside. Off to you : Buy the dip? Or bail out? How do you respond to expected and unexpected market pauses? Let us know your coping mechanism in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
14
The History of War, Gold, Fiat, and EquitiesGold vs. Equities — The 45-Year Cycle and a Pending Monetary Reset The interplay of war, gold, fiat money, and equities has long been a barometer of real wealth and economic stability. A recurring pattern emerges across modern history: approximately 45-year intervals when gold strengthens relative to equities. From the Panic of 1893 to the present, these cycles have coincided with major monetary shifts and geopolitical shocks. With a broadening 100-year pattern, rising geopolitical tension, and roughly $300 trillion in global debt, a monetary reset by the early 2030s is plausibly on the horizon. The 45-Year Cycle — Gold’s Strength at Equity Troughs The pattern’s first trough is traced to 1896, when William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” speech preceded the Gold Standard Act of 1900. Equities were weak after the Panic of 1893, and gold gained prominence. Thirteen years later, the Federal Reserve would be created. More on the 45-year cycle later. The 50-Year Jubilee Cycle The Torah’s 50-year Jubilee cycle, as outlined in Leviticus 25:8–12, is a profound economic and social reset that follows seven 7-year Shemitah cycles, totaling 49 years, with the 50th year designated as the Jubilee. Each Shemitah cycle concludes with a sabbatical year (year 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49), during which the land rests, debts are released, and economic imbalances are addressed (Leviticus 25:1–7). The Jubilee, occurring in the 50th year, amplifies this reset by mandating the return of ancestral lands, freeing of slaves, and further debt forgiveness, symbolizing a divine restoration of societal equity. While built on the 49-year framework of seven Shemitahs, the 50th year stands distinct, marking a transformative culmination rather than a simple extension of the Shemitah cycle. The five-year Jubilee windows highlighted at the base of the chart compliment the 45-year cycles previously noted. The 4 year Jubilee windows are projected from the roaring 20s peak in 1929 and the 1932 bear market low four years later. The next Jubilee window is scheduled to occur some time between 2029 and 2031. Returning to History and the 45-Year Cycles: The Panic of 1907 and the Fed The Panic of 1907 was a severe crisis, with bank runs, failing trust companies, and a liquidity crunch centered in New York. The collapse of copper speculators (F. Augustus Heinze and Charles W. Morse) triggered runs on institutions like the Knickerbocker Trust. Private bankers led by J.P. Morgan injected liquidity (over $25 million) to stabilize the system. The shock exposed the absence of a lender of last resort and precipitated reforms. Congress responded with the Aldrich–Vreeland Act (1908) and the National Monetary Commission, whose 1911 report recommended a central bank to supply “elastic currency.” After debate and hearings, President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act on December 23, 1913, creating a decentralized central bank with 12 regional banks. Some alternative accounts (e.g., The Creature from Jekyll Island) argue that the panic was exploited to centralize financial control. Mainstream history, however, treats the panic as the genuine catalyst for reform. Whatever the intent, the Fed’s creation shifted the tools available to manage crises—and, over time, central banks have played an instrumental role in financing wars and expanding Fiat currency. The Fed and World War I World War I began in Europe in 1914 (U.S. entry in 1917). The Fed began operations in November 1914 and later supported wartime financing by: Marketing Liberty Bonds (~$21.5 billion raised, 1917–1919). Providing low-interest loans to banks buying Treasury securities (via 1916-era amendments). Expanding the money supply, which contributed to wartime inflation. Although the Fed was created primarily to prevent panics and stabilize banking, its early role in war finance shifted expectations about central banking’s functions. From Confiscation to Bretton Woods to the Nixon Shock In 1933, during the Great Depression, the U.S. effectively nationalized gold—private ownership was outlawed, and the official price was later reset at $35/oz by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. Private ownership remained restricted until President Ford legalized it again in 1974. World War II and the Bretton Woods Agreement (1944) cemented gold’s role: the dollar became the anchor of the system, and other currencies pegged to it. That status persisted until August 15, 1971, when President Nixon suspended dollar-gold convertibility—the “Nixon Shock”—moving the world toward fiat currencies. The Petrodollar and Post-1971 Arrangements After 1971, the U.S. worked to preserve dollar demand. The petrodollar system emerged in the early 1970s: following the 1973 oil shock, a U.S.–Saudi understanding (1974) helped ensure oil continued to be priced in dollars and that oil revenues were recycled into U.S. Treasuries—supporting the dollar’s global role despite its fiat status. Devaluations, Floating Rates, and the End of Bretton Woods Two formal “devaluations” followed the Nixon Shock: Smithsonian Agreement (Dec 18, 1971): Raised the official gold price from $35 to $38/oz (an 8.57% change) as a stopgap attempt to stabilize fixed rates without restoring convertibility. It widened exchange banding but proved unsustainable. On February 12, 1973, the official gold price was revalued to $42.22/oz (roughly a 10% change), a symbolic acknowledgment that Bretton Woods was collapsing. By March 1973, major economies had effectively moved to floating exchange rates, and market gold prices surged. These moves were reactive attempts to adjust the dollar’s value amid trade deficits, inflation, and speculative pressures. They ultimately ushered in a fiat era, where market forces, not official pegs, set the price of gold. Triffin’s Dilemma — Then and Now Triffin’s Dilemma describes the structural tension faced by a reserve currency issuer: it must supply enough currency to ensure global liquidity (running deficits) while risking domestic instability and a loss of confidence. Britain faced this under the gold standard; the U.S. faced it under Bretton Woods and again after 1971, albeit in a different form. Modern manifestations include inflation, persistent fiscal and external deficits, and mounting debt. International policy coordination (e.g., the Plaza and Louvre Accords) repeatedly tried—and only partially succeeded—to manage these tensions. The Plaza (1985) and Louvre (1987) Accords Plaza Accord (Sept 22, 1985): G5 nations coordinated to depreciate the dollar (it had appreciated ~50% since 1980). The goal was to ease U.S. trade imbalances. The dollar fell substantially vs. the yen and mark by 1987. Louvre Accord (Feb 22, 1987): G6 sought to stabilize the dollar after its rapid decline following the Plaza Accord, setting informal target zones and coordinating intervention. It temporarily checked volatility but did not solve underlying imbalances. Both accords illustrate the extreme difficulty in balancing global liquidity needs with domestic economic health in a fiat system. De-industrialization, Bubbles, and the Broadening Pattern Orthodox history would argue that U.S. de-industrialization in the 1990s was rational at the time. Globalization and cost arbitrage provided short-term benefits, but they increased trade deficits, foreign dependency, and robbed the middle class of high-paying jobs. That loss of capacity heightens vulnerability to dollar shocks and complicates any re-industrialization efforts today. Measured in gold, equities have experienced expanding ranges: Equity peaks (1929, 1967, 1999) were followed by troughs where gold outperformed (1896, 1941, 1980/86). Gold peaked in 1980, even though the cyclical trough in the broader pattern was nearer 1986—showing that cycles can shift. The dot-com peak (1999) marked a secular low for gold relative to equities. The ensuing crashes, 9/11, and the War in Afghanistan, followed by the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis (GFC), moved markets profoundly—both nominally and in terms of gold. From 1999, relative equity values fell until a trough around 2011 (coinciding with the European debt crisis). Quantitative easing and policy responses (2010 onward) restored growth, but frailties remained (e.g., repo market stress in 2018). COVID produced another shock; aggressive fiscal and monetary responses engineered a V-shaped asset recovery but also higher inflation. Relative to gold, equities peaked in 1999 and have trended lower since. As nominal stock prices register all-time-highs in dollars—fueled by AI and other themes—equities are historically overvalued. When priced against gold, the apparent bubble in nominal terms looks more like an extended bear market ready for its next down-leg. The Broadening Pattern and the Next Trough A broadening pattern illustrates the gold equity ratio range expanding with each major peak and trough. If we accept a roughly 45-year rhythm from the 1980/86 period, the next cyclical trough may fall between 2025 and 2031, with 2031 a focal point. Whether this manifests as a runaway gold price, a sharp equity collapse, or both remains uncertain. If a sovereign-debt crisis or major war escalates, changes could accelerate—some scenarios even speculate about a negotiated new monetary framework (e.g., “Mar-A-Lago Accords”) in the next 5–15 years. Geopolitics and the $300 Trillion Debt Geopolitical tension compounds financial stress. The Russia-Ukraine war, plausibly the start of World War III, NATO involvement, and nuclear saber-rattling evoke systemic risk. Global debt—estimated at around $300 trillion (over 300% of GDP per the Institute of International Finance)—is unsustainable. U.S. public debt (~$38 trillion) now carries interest costs comparable to defense spending. Central bank money creation to service debt erodes confidence in fiat currencies and boosts demand for gold. Historical monetary resets (Bretton Woods, Nixon Shock) followed similar pressures of debt and conflict. A modern reset could push gold well beyond current records—potentially into the high thousands or five-figure territory if confidence collapses. Implications of a Pending Monetary Reset A reset might take various forms: A partial return to a gold-linked standard, perhaps supplemented by tokenized/digital assets. Forced debt restructuring or coordinated global defaults. Rapid adoption of digital currencies (including state-issued tokens—CBDCs) as part of a new settlement architecture. Given Triffin’s Dilemma, inflated financial assets, and interconnected global linkages, a modern reset could be far larger in scale and speed than past adjustments. Assets, trade, and supply chains are far larger and more intertwined than in 1971, increasing contagion risk. Practical takeaway: investors should consider gold’s role in portfolios; policymakers must confront debt sustainability or risk a market-driven reckoning that could disrupt global finance. Conclusion The Torah's 50-year Jubilee, the 45-year cycle and the century-long broadening pattern suggest we are approaching a structural turning point. Triffin’s Dilemma, decades of accumulated imbalances, de-industrialization, and escalating geopolitical risk suggest a monetary reset is plausible between 2030 and 2035—possibly sooner under severe stress. A modern reset would be more disruptive than past episodes because today’s global economy is larger, more integrated, and technologically complex. The question is not only whether such a reset will occur, but how policymakers and markets will manage it. The stakes—global financial stability and the relative value of fiat versus real assets—could not be higher.
SP:SPXEducation
by Wave-Tech
12
S&P 500 Watching 6,700 Support as Seasonal Tailwinds Strengthen.Hey Traders, In today’s session, we’re keeping a close eye on US500 for a potential buying opportunity around the 6,700 zone. The S&P 500 remains firmly in an uptrend, with price currently in a healthy correction phase approaching a key support and trend confluence near 6,700. Beyond the technical setup, seasonality adds a bullish layer — over the past 15 years, the S&P 500 has advanced 14 times in October to early November, averaging significant gain during this window. If history rhymes, the current pullback could offer a compelling buy-the-dip opportunity into one of the market’s strongest seasonal periods. Trade safe, Joe.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by JoeChampion
7
When Fear Takes Over the Feed: How to Stay on Top of Your GameFriday wasn’t just a red day — it was the kind of red that makes traders question their life choices. The Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC plunged 3.6% , its worst day since the April tariff-fueled meltdown. The S&P 500 SP:SPX dropped 2.7%, the Dow Jones TVC:DJI tumbled nearly 900 points, and $1.6 trillion in market value simply evaporated. Hello tariffs, my old friend. President Trump announced he’s canceling a planned meeting with China’s Xi Jinping and slapping 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Just when investors thought the trade wars were over. It was China this time that triggered the mayhem. President Xi unveiled plans to tighten controls on rare-earth exports, materials critical for EVs and high-tech hardware. The widespread selling was especially brutal over at the crypto corner with a record $19 billion in liquidations. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD face-planted 7.2% for the day, sliding below $111,000. So, what’s a trader supposed to do when markets melt faster than your enthusiasm to study the Elliott wave? Here’s a step-by-step guide that breaks down the psychology of panic and how smart traders stay cool when the feed turns into a fear factory. 🧠 Step One: Understand the “Fear Reflex” When bad news breaks, the first instinct for most traders is to actually do something. Anything. Sell, short, hedge, pray — anything to make the pain stop. That’s your amygdala (the brain’s alarm system) talking. When headlines hit, ask yourself: • Is this new information, a re-spin of old fears, or a projection? • Does it change the fundamentals of my positions? • What’s the time frame of this impact — minutes, months, or meme-cycle? If you can’t answer those calmly, and instead rush to offload your positions, you’re in panic mode and you risk making impulse decisions. 📊 Step Two: Zoom Out (Literally and Mentally) When fear takes over the feed, the chart shrinks. Traders start staring at 1-minute candles and wonder if they should dump their stocks right now . That’s the moment to zoom out. Pull up the 4-hour, daily, or weekly chart. You’ll likely notice that Friday’s epic collapse looks less like the apocalypse and more like a blip in an ongoing uptrend. Case in point: The Nasdaq may have tanked 3.6%, but it’s still sitting near record territory after months of AI-fueled gains. The broader trend — higher highs, higher lows — is intact. Volatility doesn’t mean reversal. It means emotion acting out. And markets love testing conviction. 💬 Step Three: Tune Out the Noise When every post in your feed screams “MARKET MELTDOWN!” it’s tempting to join the panic chorus. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to be like that tomorrow. Take for example the April crash. Stocks were rising and rising , and not too long after, they started hitting record after record . You don’t need to read 20 opinions — you need one solid plan (and, of course, to be a daily reader of our Top Stories ). A simple checklist helps: • Position size: Are you overexposed? • Stop-loss: Is it placed logically, not emotionally? • Cash buffer: Do you have dry powder for the dip? Don’t scramble mid-freefall. Prepare for volatility before it happens. 🧩 Step Four: Identify the Difference Between Noise and Narrative Every market drop has two layers — the market-shaking news story and how investors perceive it. • The headline on Friday: “Trump reignites trade war with China.” • The perception: Markets pricing growth halt, rake hikes, gloom and doom, and apocalypse. In the short term, that’s fear-inducing. In the medium term? It could actually mean looser monetary policy — which is generally bullish for risk assets like stocks, gold, and even crypto. In other words, what feels like the end of the world on Friday might look like a buying opportunity by Tuesday. 🧭 Step Five: Play Offense When Others Play Defense There’s a reason Buffett’s “be fearful when others are greedy” quote is overused — because it’s true. When the market wipes out $1.6 trillion in a day, it’s a reminder that liquidity and emotion drive short-term moves. If your thesis is intact and you’re not that up high on leverage, you may consider this drop as a time to look for opportunities. Instead of selling in fear, study which sectors overreacted. • Tech led the plunge — but if (or when) there’s a rebound, these stocks will most likely be the leaders. Especially now when the third-quarter earnings season is here (check when it’s big tech’s turn to report by browsing the Earnings calendar ). • Gold and bonds saw inflows — typical defensive plays. • Energy and industrials may catch bids if tariffs stick. 🪙 A Note to Crypto Bros Bitcoin’s 7% slide shows that once-independent assets have spent too much time with traditional risk assets. And now they’re almost impossible to tell apart. As institutional capital grows in crypto, it behaves more like a growth play where risk is embraced during good times, but dumped during bad. The lesson? Don’t buy the “decoupling” narrative so easily. Bitcoin may hedge against long-term fiat decay, but in a short-term panic, it’s still part of the same risk ecosystem. The smart move is to trade correlations , not beliefs. If Bitcoin drops with stocks during a tariff tantrum, that’s confirmation that institutional traders are playing both arenas. 🧡 Final Takeaway Let’s acknowledge that Friday’s bloodbath was catastrophic to many . It wiped out traders that were holding both stocks and crypto. If that happened to you, as painful as it is, keep your head up, take a breath (or a break), and come back another day. And when you do, widen your chart, trim that leverage and keep your bets nimble so you’d survive the next inevitable meltdown. Finally, we can't not address the elephant in the room. It was likely another Trump-led market rinse-and-repeat cycle: tweet, panic, rebound. Futures are recovering after Trump waved away tariff fears , saying “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” Off to you : How did you fare Friday? And what's your way of weathering the market storms? Share your experience in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
6
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to support area of 6646 .Colleagues, in the last forecast I was counting on price reaching the 6550 area, but that plan turned out to be a long term plan. I see the sense in making some shorter term targets. The closest target I see is the 6646 support area, where wave “4” ends. This is a corrective movement, so it is necessary to realize that the price may continue to fall after reaching the target. Fundamental context U.S. inflation remains elevated — CPI rose to about 2.9 % YoY, with core inflation around 3.1 %. At the same time, the labor market continues to cool, and corporate earnings show mixed results. Combined with the Fed’s cautious stance and ongoing fiscal uncertainty, this creates pressure on the stock market. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Hellena_Trade
7
US500 Breaks Out and Aims HigherUS500 Breaks Out and Aims Higher Since the start of October, the US500 has been moving inside a large bullish pattern, showing signs of accumulation. Now, it looks ready to rise again, supported by expectations that the FOMC will continue with its rate cut plans in the upcoming meetings. The FOMC minutes released yesterday also confirmed support for a 25 bps rate cut, adding strength to market optimism. Recently, the US500 broke out of the bullish pattern, suggesting more upside potential ahead. For now, the next targets are around 6780 and 6800. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by KlejdiCuni
5
SPX500 – Futures Rebound Amid Shutdown Uncertainty and AI RepricSPX500 – Overview | Futures Rebound After Market Pullback U.S. stock futures edged higher on Friday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated from record highs. Investors are re-evaluating the AI-driven rally, rate-cut expectations, and the ongoing government shutdown, now entering its ninth day. The shutdown’s continuation delays key U.S. economic data releases, increasing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Technical Outlook The price tested its support zone and rebounded, but momentum remains mixed. To confirm renewed bullish strength, SPX500 must break above 6,757, which would open the way toward 6,770 → 6,791. As long as the price trades below 6,757, short-term bearish pressure may persist toward 6,738 → 6,730. A confirmed break below 6,730 would extend the correction toward 6,716 and signal further downside potential. Pivot Line: 6,757 Resistance: 6,770 · 6,791 Support: 6,738 · 6,730 · 6,716 Summary: SPX500 is consolidating after the pullback, with near-term bias depending on a break of 6,757 or 6,730. Traders should expect volatility as the shutdown drags on and the market reassesses Fed policy expectations.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
1
I can't believe nowbody saw this coming for crypto. S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Long-Term Channel Pattern The S&P 500 has been trading within a well-defined ascending parallel channel for over 5 years. As shown in the chart, the index has consistently respected both the upper resistance and lower support trendlines of this channel throughout this period. Current Market Position: The index recently reached the upper boundary of this parallel channel around the 6,700-6,800 level and has begun to pull back. Historically, when the S&P 500 has tested this upper resistance line, it has typically reversed and moved toward the lower support trendline. Key Observations: Channel Behavior: The price action shows a clear pattern of rejection at the upper channel resistance, followed by moves back toward the middle or lower boundary of the channel. Correlation with Crypto: When the S&P 500 experiences significant downward moves, risk assets like cryptocurrencies tend to follow suit, often with amplified volatility. Potential Scenarios: While a retest of the upper resistance is possible, the more probable scenario based on historical channel behavior is a move toward the lower support line, which currently sits around the 5,200-5,400 range. Risk Factors: The current market environment faces additional headwinds, particularly concerns about an AI bubble. If sentiment shifts regarding AI valuations, this could accelerate the move toward channel support, as AI-related stocks have been significant drivers of the index's recent performance. Conclusion: Technical analysis suggests caution at current levels, with the channel's upper boundary acting as a natural resistance zone. Risk management and monitoring of support levels will be crucial in the coming weeks.
SP:SPX
by boragt
1
SPX | Daily Analysis #1Lets take a look at OANDA:SPX500USD at start of the Monday and being ready for the week. Last Week: well, as you may know last week was a struggle and flashy crashy market for all and at least about 80% of indexes was turning red in Friday amid US and China trade war escalation. Start Of the Week: Personally I think the market will open with huge gap in down side and flame the Fear factor for the start of Monday. Horizon: Well, during 2018-2019 trade war showed us that this romance not gonna end soon and this story will continue at least 3-6 months. And if any tension rises, the markets will shot again. 4H Time Frame: As you can see, the index passed trough the latest Demand zone and heading to Supply zone. this area may good for some buyers to take action for catching or creating correction for Friday's move. if this will happen the price would go in $6580 area. and make some range towards 1st of November. ✔️ Personally, I’m waiting and observing for market re-action for THIS first day of market.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by DibaPrism
2
Bigger Market Correction ahead??? We can see a bigger correction in markets??? Its a nice probability. Its that happened could be a great opportunity to longs entry before we can see a new leg up in markets until the Q2-Q3 2026 for the end of 5 or 6 years current liquidity cycle . Then we can spect the beggining of the bigger bear market that we ever see in our times. (nobody know's) This its not finantial advice, just a trading idea for entertaiment and educational porpuose, dont follow this idea! Keep your owns idea in play , do your own reaserch and manage properly your money. The markets have bigger risks escenarios right now.
TVC:SPX
by ProfeBitcoin
1
SPX500USD 4H – Bullish Continuation SetupThe market continues to maintain an upward structure, with price consolidating just below the 6,770.00 resistance area. This zone remains key for buyers looking to confirm a continuation toward the next target at 6,830.74. Support at: 6,700.00 /6,647.95/6,585.00 🔽 Resistance at: 6,770.00 / 6,830.74 🔼 🔎 Bias: 🔼 Bullish: A strong 4H close above 6,770.00 would likely extend the bullish move toward 6,830.74, continuing the broader uptrend. 🔽 Bearish: Rejection from 6,770.00 and a break below 6,700.00 could lead to a pullback around 6,647.95 and even a deeper pullback toward 6,585.00. 📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
THINKMARKETS:SPX500
by SPOT_FX
1
Grandaddy of them all shows rough ride aheadI decided to a big picture perspective SPX as it can sometimes be the clearest and most simple view. Not often do I come across a more valid (looking) setup. As you can see, this chart involves a whopping 140 year up-trending channel with a smaller pink channel within close to the upper bound. Both of which, current price action has just stepped above on the monthly chart. I believe this to be a blow off top that will be short lived. I'm not saying it can't spike a little higher or go sideways for a bit but this seems to be hitting hard resistance. It appears that it might be soon time to consider a short position for a protracted bear market. I know it seems impossible but technically price should, at some point, cross the lower black line. When we overlay fib retracements starting from the 1932 swing low to historical high, .236 lands right at the major support level just below 1600. Yes 1600. This is the first fib line and major support below the lower trend line. And when you examine the other retracement lines they all line up with significant support/resistance levels. I see this as confirmation of the entire bearish scenario to come. I think we are looking at a bumpy ride ahead if not a crash. I drew the blue trend line in as well, since it seems notable, and will be taking it into consideration also on the way down. Unfortunately you don't get a hundred year uptrend without some serious chart damage eventually. With valuations in nosebleed territory and the current geopolitical carnival in process, not to mention the numbers games being played in the financial data realm, would anyone be surprised if a big black swan came swooping in?!
SP:SPXShort
by gsteiger
2
Trump’s Decision Shakes Global Financial MarketsTrump’s Decision Shakes Global Financial Markets On Friday, 10 October, President Trump made an unexpected statement about the possible introduction of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, triggering sharp price swings across global markets: → Stock markets: The S&P 500 index tumbled by more than 3%, hitting its lowest level in over a month. → Currency markets: The US dollar slumped sharply against other major currencies. However, on Sunday, Donald Trump softened his tone on Truth Social, suggesting that trade relations with Beijing “will be absolutely fine”. Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment, adding that the United States is ready for talks if China is “prepared to act reasonably”. This shift in rhetoric from US officials helped markets recover, with the S&P 500 index rebounding sharply at Monday’s open, reclaiming much of Friday’s losses. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart In our previous analysis of the 4-hour S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) on 4 October, we identified an upward channel (shown in blue) and expressed several concerns: → The price was approaching the upper boundary of the channel, where long positions are often closed for profit. → The latest peak slightly exceeded the October high (A), suggesting a potential bearish divergence. → The news blackout caused by the government shutdown created an “information vacuum”, which could quickly turn sentiment negative if filled with adverse developments. The lower boundary of the blue channel offered only temporary support near 6,644 points on Friday before the price broke downwards. Doubling the channel width provides a projected target near 6,500, which coincides with Friday’s low. Given these factors, it can be assumed that the lower line of the blue channel now acts as the median of a broader range following Friday’s sell-off. This suggests that in the coming days, the S&P 500 index may stabilise as demand and supply find temporary balance along this line. Looking further ahead, the situation may resemble that of early April, when after a panic-driven market drop (also triggered by Trump’s tariff comments), the S&P 500 not only fully recovered but went on to reach new highs. Key Levels: → 6,705 – a level that has acted as both support and resistance this autumn; → 6,606 – the boundary of the bullish gap. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXM
by FXOpen
1
The corrective phase of the S&P In my view, the S&P 500 index is forming a diametric pattern in the long-term timeframe, with wave (E) currently nearing completion. Following this, the index is expected to enter a corrective phase, which could involve both price and time corrections: - The price correction may extend to the range of the drawn box, potentially dropping the index to 3,500 points. - Alternatively, the price could decline to the 4,700–4,800 range and then consolidate over time to complete the time correction. Good luck NEoWave Chart
TVC:SPX
by NEoWave-Chart
15
S&P500 Found the Support it needed for 6800.The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us an excellent bottom buy signal last week (September 30, see chart below), rebounding straight after and quickly hitting our 6720 Target: This time we focus on a much shorter term Channel Up pattern that has emerged, which has just given us another buy signal as it is currently bouncing on its 1H MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as the 1H MA100 (green trend-line) holds and the 1H RSI breaks above its Lower Highs trend-line, we expect the index to seek a new Higher High on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 6800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
S&P 500 - GRAND MARKET OUTLOOKS&P 500 - GRAND MARKET OUTLOOK BY FIBCOS This analysis integrates multiple layers of market interpretation, combining Elliott Wave Theory across Supercycle , Macro , Micro , and Sub-Micro degrees with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , price action behavior, and Fibonacci retracements/extensions to project the S&P 500 ’s long-term trajectory. It captures how institutional capital rotates through accumulation and distribution phases, aligned with macroeconomic cycles, policy shifts, and investor sentiment. Each wave is grounded in historical and forward-looking fundamental events—from post-war booms to financial crises to the current AI-driven tech surge. The use of Fibonacci ratios (1.618, 3.618, 5.618) provides mathematical confluence for wave targets, while price structure confirms the ongoing impulsive behavior. Altogether, it creates a cohesive, multi-dimensional forecast expected to culminate in a Supercycle Wave (III) top around Q1 2029 , with an S&P 500 target between 20,000(20K). 🌀 Supercycle Wave (III) — The Final Ascent (1942–2029*) 🌍 SUPERCYCLE STRUCTURE: The Multi-Generational Bull We are inside Supercycle Wave (III) which began in 1942 and is unfolding in 5 Macro Impulse Waves . Each of these macro waves has further Micro and Sub-Micro waves. As of 2025, we're in the final stretch of this grand cycle, specifically: 👉 Sub-Micro Wave ③ of Micro Wave ⑤ of Macro Wave ⑤ of Supercycle Wave (III) Final top expected in Q1 2029 , around the 20,000 (20K) zone 📍 🧭 MACRO WAVE TIMELINE (Supercycle III) 🔹 Macro Wave ① (1942–1968): 🌟 Post-War Industrial Renaissance Fundamentals: WWII victory → economic dominance Baby boom, suburbanization, auto and housing expansion Bretton Woods system established USD supremacy 💵 Smart Money Insight: Institutional capital rotated from war manufacturing into consumer goods, construction, and tech foundations Price Action: Strong impulsive move with clean higher highs/lows Fibonacci Insight: Laid the base for 1.618 extension targets Ends in 1968 with rising inflation and Vietnam drag 🔹 Macro Wave ② (1968–1974): 🌪️ Stagflation Storm Fundamentals: Vietnam War expenditures Gold standard broken (1971 Nixon shock) Oil embargo, inflation > growth Price Action: Deep correction, volatile chop, broad distribution SMC Insight: Institutions exited cyclicals, quietly accumulated future outperformers (tech, defense) Fibonacci: 0.236% retracement of Super Cycle Wave ii 🔹 Macro Wave ③ (1974–2000): 🚀 Tech & Financialization Explosion Fundamentals: Reaganomics & deregulation PC revolution, Internet birth, globalization 🌐 Explosion in derivatives, S&P futures, ETFs SMC: Institutions accumulated during 70s lows, fueled tech IPO boom (Apple, Microsoft) Price Action: Violent rallies with accelerating slope — classic 3rd wave behavior Fibonacci: Extended well beyond 4.618% of Macro ① & ② — true power wave 🔹 Macro Wave ④ (2000–2009): 🌊 Dot-Com + Financial Crisis Correction Fundamentals: Dot-Com bust ➜ $5T in lost value 9/11 shocks & Iraq war GFC: Housing bubble → global banking collapse Price Action: Double top structure (2000 & 2007), multi-leg correction SMC Insight: Smart money cashed out in 2000 and 2007; bought again heavily in March 2009 Structure: WXY complex correction, bottoming with V-shape GFC recovery Fibonacci: 0.236% retracement of Macro ② 🔶 MACRO WAVE ⑤ (2009–2029): 🔥 The Final Ascent – AI, Liquidity & Euphoria This is the final macro wave of Supercycle (III), and it subdivides into 5 Micro Impulse Waves. We are now in Micro Wave ⑤ , which itself contains Sub-Micro Waves 1–5. 🔷 Micro Wave ① (2009–Apr 2010): 🪙 The Bounce from Oblivion Fundamentals: Fed QE1 💉, bailouts (TARP), 0% rates Fear of deflation flipped to hunt for yield Price Action: Clean V-bottom, shallow pullbacks SMC: Institutions were loading REITs, tech, and banks post-GFC carnage 🔷 Micro Wave ② (Apr 2010–Jun 2010): 🩻 Flash Crash Flush Fundamentals: Euro debt scare, Greece bailout, volatility spike Price Action: Sharp correction, liquidity vacuum Fibonacci: Textbook 0.236% retracement SMC: Stop hunt phase — liquidity grab before next leg 🔷 Micro Wave ③ (Jun 2010–2018): 🚀 Passive Investing Boom Fundamentals: QE2, QE3 → massive central bank asset inflation Apple, Amazon, Google explode in earnings and valuation ETF revolution = automated capital flows Price Action: Relentless trend with low volatility Fibonacci: 2.618+ extension of Wave ① SMC: Institutions began multi-year hold strategies (FANGM), volatility sellers emerged 🔷 Micro Wave ④ (2018–2020): ⚠️ Volatility & COVID Shock Fundamentals: Rate hikes (2018), trade war (US-China) COVID black swan — global shutdown, crude oil collapse (went negative!) Price Action: Massive drop with record velocity (VIX > 80) SMC: Panic selling, smart money accumulation March 2020 🔵 MICRO WAVE ⑤ (2020–2029): 📈 The Final Climb Begins This is where we are now. This Micro Wave ⑤ is subdividing into: 🟢 Sub-Micro Wave ① (Mar 2020 – Nov 2021): 💹 Stimulus Mania Fundamentals: Unlimited QE, COVID relief checks Crypto/NFT mania, meme stocks (GME/AMC) Retail explosion via Robinhood & Reddit Price Action: Parabolic rally, overbought signals SMC: Institutions faded retail euphoria mid-2021 🟡 Sub-Micro Wave ② (Nov 2021 – Oct 2022): 🔻 Inflation Reckoning Fundamentals: CPI > 9%, Fed hikes aggressively Yield curve inversion, tech meltdown Price Action: 0.236% retracement SMC: Smart money rotated into energy, defense, and value stocks during panic Sentiment : Retail fled, fear extreme — perfect accumulation zone 🔴 Sub-Micro Wave ③ (Oct 2022 – Est. 2027): ⚡ AI Supercycle Ignites CURRENT WAVE IN PROGRESS Fundamentals: AI revolution (ChatGPT, LLMs, Robotics, Automation) Cloud, semiconductors, defense, biotech surge Fiscal policy dominance, wars & tech race 🧠 Price Action: Clean impulse structure Shallow pullbacks, breakout-retest continuation SMC: Institutions aggressively long AI/Defense (Nvidia, Palantir, defense contractors) Liquidity injections in dips, stealth breakouts Fibonacci Target: 3.618 extension ~11,200 Expected to peak in 2026 🟠 Sub-Micro Wave ④ (Est. 2027-2028): 🧯 Last Shakeout Before the Climax Expect: Profit-taking, geopolitical panic, credit stress Retest of broken trendline or previous resistance zone Fibonacci : Retrace 0.236–0.382 of Wave ③ SMC: Final accumulation before blow-off top 🔵 Sub-Micro Wave ⑤ (Est. 2028–Q1 2029): 🚨 Blow-Off Top: 20,000 Target Fundamentals: Peak optimism: “AI replaces everything”, euphoria Retail mania, influencer ETFs Fed/central banks possibly easing again to avoid slowdown Price Action: Parabolic, low pullbacks, extreme momentum, RSI divergence, volume climax SMC: Massive institutional distribution — quiet selling into strength Target: ~20,000 (5.618 of Wave ①), final top of Supercycle (III) 🛑 What Comes After? SUPERCYCLE WAVE (IV): 🔻 Decade-Long Reset (2029–2040?) Major correction, potentially multi-decade sideways or secular bear Catalyst? AI bust, geopolitical war, credit collapse "Stay focused on structure, not emotions." - FIBCOS 📘 Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management. #FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #WaveTheory #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
SP:SPXLong
by fibcos
1