SPX into the Euro open.Tuesday 14th OctoberPoss supp area 6565-6600 looming
66400 seems to be some swearing and fighting
Trade ideas
From 'pullbacks' to a 'correction' (S&P 500)Setup
Still Bullish. Be patient for entry near end of the corrective move lower
Evidence..
-Trend is up, no top pattern
-No longer 'dips' to 50 DMA, now into a 'correction' with possible move towards 100 DMA
-Large bearish engulfing weekly candle
-The 4 month old trendline has broken.
-RSI has dropped under support - but not yet characteristic of bearish trend by going oversold
-Price has landed at a demand zone under 6500 (could rebound from here)
Signal
Looking to go long on another test of the demand zone OR
at next supports found at matching lows of 6350 then 6200
SPX | Daily Analysis #2Hello and welcome back to DP,
**Review and News**
Yesterday, at the start of the week, the SPX opened with a significant upside gap, largely driven by a tweet from former President Trump on Friday. His statement—"Don’t worry about China and Xi, they don’t want a recession for their economy, and neither do we"—helped restore investor confidence, pushing them back into the market, particularly into this index. However, shortly after, Trump reiterated that tariffs would still be implemented on November 1st, which is expected to have a considerable impact.
This morning, President Xi reaffirmed his stance, saying, "China will fight to the end, but the doors for negotiation are always open." As seen on the chart, the price has moved within a range between $6,681 and $6,584.
**4-Hour Price Action**
As indicated by the chart, the price range between $6,681 and $6,584 seems to be holding steady for now. One scenario suggests the market is in a consolidation phase. The shape of this consolidation will depend on the future performance of the market. It could either form a diagonal pattern or remain within a box range, as investors battle against short-sellers.
Using Fibonacci retracement, it appears the price may extend to the 0.236 line at $6,706. If this Fibonacci level holds, the market could face a downturn, potentially targeting the next support level indicated by the red box below the chart.
**Trend Analysis**
As shown, the trend illustrates a clear relationship with price movement. The price opened above the trend line, then expanded below the next trend level, showing respect for it. This movement suggests that downward pressure remains, with the market's direction depending on the break of the current trend line.
Personally , I believe the market may head south, but it won’t be a straightforward move. The decline could be unpredictable and happen quickly, or it may unfold in more gradual, choppy moves. One thing to be certain of is that retail traders are betting against the market, mainly due to the gap being filled. However, caution is advised when trading this index. It’s important to wait for confirmation before making any decisions.
15% uptrend until March 2027Just have a look.
The market is in an incredible bull run since 2009. Its move is parabolic and it will probably end around 8000 pips in March 2027.
My theory is based in the bottoms of this cycles:
2008-2015-2020-2023-2025 or in other words:
Finantial crisis.
Covid
Israel Conflict
Trump´s Tariffs.
Other indicators are Gann cycles which collide in the exact points.
Therefore, my idea is to see Sp500 at 7800 points in March 2027 before seeing the huge crash that it must be needed to cool off after almost 20 years of bull run.
SNP500 short uptick and quick downfallZeusExodus
As the marked upticks close to 7k levels it will drop about 10% that will mark the lowest point on July 11th.
US 500The US 500 has just broken through the 6650 level again. After testing support and closing above it, the trend is to target the next level, 6700.
SP500 path forward: volatility and retest of previous highsAssuming that previous patterns continue, and they may not, the SP500 will eventually retest its previous new highs, but likely not in the near future, short of a volatility event.
SPX Supported by Trendline and Rate Cut ExpectationsThe S&P 500 has been climbing steadily, with the ascending trendline from April acting as a reliable backbone for the move. Despite short-term volatility, buyers continue to defend higher lows. Coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts, the trend structure remains intact unless key supports give way.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Current price: 6,584
The green trendline (since April) is guiding the advance.
Price is consolidating near highs, supported by demand zones underneath.
🛡️ Support Zones & Stop-Loss (White Lines):
🟢 6,537 – 1H Support (Medium Risk)
First line of defense for short-term traders.
Stop-loss: Below 6,513
🟡 6,018 – Daily Support (Swing Trade Setup)
Stronger base for medium-term positioning.
Stop-loss: Below 5,919
🧭 Outlook
Bullish Case: Hold above 6,537 + April trendline intact → continuation toward new highs above 6,600–6,700.
Bearish Case: Break below 6,537 could trigger a correction into 6,018. Losing that zone would weaken the April trendline structure.
Bias: Bullish while April trendline holds.
🌍 Fundamental Insight
Rate cut expectations continue to provide a macro tailwind for equities. With inflation moderating and yields easing, investors remain willing to support risk assets. A sudden shift in data or Fed tone, however, could test the resilience of the April trendline.
✅ Conclusion
The S&P 500 remains in a strong bullish structure, anchored by the April trendline. Unless supports at 6,537 or 6,018 are lost, the path of least resistance remains higher.
If you found this useful, please don’t forget to like and follow for more structure-based insights.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
S&P 500 (SPX) Simple Break Down The S&P (SPX) is sitting at a key turning point. Here’s what to watch for next:
If price drops below 6553, we could see it keep falling toward 6469 and if that breaks, then possibly down to around 6398.
But if price pushes above 6763, the next big target area could be 7237–7274.
So basically:
👉 Below 6553 = likely drop
👉 Above 6763 = likely climb
Right now, we’re in a tight spot where either direction could open up a strong move.
If you’re unsure how to trade around these levels or what kind of pullback makes sense, shoot me a quick DM
I can walk you through how I’m looking at setups and risk zones in plain English.
Mindbloome Exchange
S&P 500: TACO Trump or Something More Serious?After a summer of plain sailing for the S&P 500, Friday’s sell-off was the first market wobble we’ve witnessed in some time. Let’s take a look at what this means moving forward…
Tariff Turbulence Returns
Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats against China sent shockwaves through markets on Friday, triggering the S&P 500’s biggest one-day drop since April. His comments, accusing Beijing of becoming “very hostile” and vowing “massive” tariffs, reignited fears of a full-blown trade war. Investors rushed into safe havens, pushing Treasury yields lower and sending gold back toward record highs. The sell-off saw more than four in five stocks in the index finish in the red, bringing an abrupt pause to the market’s recent record-breaking run.
But as Wall Street traders know, Trump’s tariff threats don’t always end the way they start. The “Trump Always Chickens Out” or TACO trade has become a familiar playbook for traders who buy the dip after a tariff announcement, then sell the rebound when the president softens his tone. Sure enough, over the weekend Trump hinted at reconciliation, praising President Xi and calling for cooperation. That shift helped US futures rebound early Monday, as investors once again bet that the sell-off might be more bark than bite. The question now is whether this episode follows the usual TACO script or signals something deeper brewing beneath the surface.
Bearish Engulfing Shock Sets the Parameters
Friday’s daily candle tells the story best. The huge bearish engulfing candle didn’t just erase the prior week’s gains, it wrapped around several days of price action and signalled a sharp shift in sentiment. Its sheer size is significant because range expansion after a calm period often marks a turning point in market psychology. The candle’s lower wick, finding support near the 50-day moving average, shows that buyers did emerge at key trend support, but how price behaves within this range will now define the path forward.
US500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The hourly chart shows how that panic played out and how quickly traders have tried to repair the damage. The market found support before gapping higher at Monday’s open, showing a tentative attempt to stabilise. This kind of response often reveals whether a sell-off was a genuine trend reversal or a momentary flush of emotion. If price can keep grinding higher from here and close back above the midpoint of Friday’s engulfing candle, it would confirm that the uptrend remains intact and that buyers still have control.
However, if the S&P 500 stalls or consolidates in the lower half of that candle’s range, it would be a clear warning that the market’s tone has changed. Sideways price action here would imply that traders are waiting for confirmation rather than chasing rebounds, and that shift in behaviour can often lead to a second leg lower. The size of Friday’s engulfing candle now marks a battleground between short-term buyers and cautious longer-term investors. Whether we see a swift recovery or a slow grind will reveal if this was just another TACO moment or the start of something more meaningful.
US500 Hourly Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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SP500: Breaks Out Of Channel, Steps Into Wave Four I hope you had a nice weekend despite that nasty turn lower on stocks we saw on Friday. As you know, the move came after Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on China, following China’s own restrictions and tighter export controls on rare earth metals, which are crucial for the tech sector. We’ve seen this story before back in April, and if tariffs come back into focus again, traders will likely react with fear — so it’s not a surprise we saw such a strong drop in stocks on Friday.
Normally, markets are most sensitive when this kind of news first hits, and then they tend to stabilize afterward. What’s interesting, though, is that despite the strong sell-off in stocks, the dollar index didn’t show the kind of sharp upside reaction you’d usually expect. So I’m wondering if stocks can find some support, but seems like this can be only wave B rally, since we are in the middle of wave four retracement. Keep in mind there is an open gap lower on futures.
Big supports is at 6400 and 6200.
Grega
I can't believe nowbody saw this coming for crypto. S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Long-Term Channel Pattern
The S&P 500 has been trading within a well-defined ascending parallel channel for over 5 years. As shown in the chart, the index has consistently respected both the upper resistance and lower support trendlines of this channel throughout this period.
Current Market Position:
The index recently reached the upper boundary of this parallel channel around the 6,700-6,800 level and has begun to pull back. Historically, when the S&P 500 has tested this upper resistance line, it has typically reversed and moved toward the lower support trendline.
Key Observations:
Channel Behavior: The price action shows a clear pattern of rejection at the upper channel resistance, followed by moves back toward the middle or lower boundary of the channel.
Correlation with Crypto: When the S&P 500 experiences significant downward moves, risk assets like cryptocurrencies tend to follow suit, often with amplified volatility.
Potential Scenarios: While a retest of the upper resistance is possible, the more probable scenario based on historical channel behavior is a move toward the lower support line, which currently sits around the 5,200-5,400 range.
Risk Factors:
The current market environment faces additional headwinds, particularly concerns about an AI bubble. If sentiment shifts regarding AI valuations, this could accelerate the move toward channel support, as AI-related stocks have been significant drivers of the index's recent performance.
Conclusion:
Technical analysis suggests caution at current levels, with the channel's upper boundary acting as a natural resistance zone. Risk management and monitoring of support levels will be crucial in the coming weeks.
When Fear Takes Over the Feed: How to Stay on Top of Your GameFriday wasn’t just a red day — it was the kind of red that makes traders question their life choices.
The Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC plunged 3.6% , its worst day since the April tariff-fueled meltdown.
The S&P 500 SP:SPX dropped 2.7%, the Dow Jones TVC:DJI tumbled nearly 900 points, and $1.6 trillion in market value simply evaporated.
Hello tariffs, my old friend.
President Trump announced he’s canceling a planned meeting with China’s Xi Jinping and slapping 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Just when investors thought the trade wars were over.
It was China this time that triggered the mayhem. President Xi unveiled plans to tighten controls on rare-earth exports, materials critical for EVs and high-tech hardware.
The widespread selling was especially brutal over at the crypto corner with a record $19 billion in liquidations. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD face-planted 7.2% for the day, sliding below $111,000.
So, what’s a trader supposed to do when markets melt faster than your enthusiasm to study the Elliott wave?
Here’s a step-by-step guide that breaks down the psychology of panic and how smart traders stay cool when the feed turns into a fear factory.
🧠 Step One: Understand the “Fear Reflex”
When bad news breaks, the first instinct for most traders is to actually do something. Anything. Sell, short, hedge, pray — anything to make the pain stop. That’s your amygdala (the brain’s alarm system) talking.
When headlines hit, ask yourself:
• Is this new information, a re-spin of old fears, or a projection?
• Does it change the fundamentals of my positions?
• What’s the time frame of this impact — minutes, months, or meme-cycle?
If you can’t answer those calmly, and instead rush to offload your positions, you’re in panic mode and you risk making impulse decisions.
📊 Step Two: Zoom Out (Literally and Mentally)
When fear takes over the feed, the chart shrinks. Traders start staring at 1-minute candles and wonder if they should dump their stocks right now .
That’s the moment to zoom out. Pull up the 4-hour, daily, or weekly chart. You’ll likely notice that Friday’s epic collapse looks less like the apocalypse and more like a blip in an ongoing uptrend.
Case in point: The Nasdaq may have tanked 3.6%, but it’s still sitting near record territory after months of AI-fueled gains. The broader trend — higher highs, higher lows — is intact.
Volatility doesn’t mean reversal. It means emotion acting out. And markets love testing conviction.
💬 Step Three: Tune Out the Noise
When every post in your feed screams “MARKET MELTDOWN!” it’s tempting to join the panic chorus. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to be like that tomorrow.
Take for example the April crash. Stocks were rising and rising , and not too long after, they started hitting record after record .
You don’t need to read 20 opinions — you need one solid plan (and, of course, to be a daily reader of our Top Stories ).
A simple checklist helps:
• Position size: Are you overexposed?
• Stop-loss: Is it placed logically, not emotionally?
• Cash buffer: Do you have dry powder for the dip?
Don’t scramble mid-freefall. Prepare for volatility before it happens.
🧩 Step Four: Identify the Difference Between Noise and Narrative
Every market drop has two layers — the market-shaking news story and how investors perceive it.
• The headline on Friday: “Trump reignites trade war with China.”
• The perception: Markets pricing growth halt, rake hikes, gloom and doom, and apocalypse.
In the short term, that’s fear-inducing. In the medium term? It could actually mean looser monetary policy — which is generally bullish for risk assets like stocks, gold, and even crypto.
In other words, what feels like the end of the world on Friday might look like a buying opportunity by Tuesday.
🧭 Step Five: Play Offense When Others Play Defense
There’s a reason Buffett’s “be fearful when others are greedy” quote is overused — because it’s true.
When the market wipes out $1.6 trillion in a day, it’s a reminder that liquidity and emotion drive short-term moves. If your thesis is intact and you’re not that up high on leverage, you may consider this drop as a time to look for opportunities.
Instead of selling in fear, study which sectors overreacted.
• Tech led the plunge — but if (or when) there’s a rebound, these stocks will most likely be the leaders. Especially now when the third-quarter earnings season is here (check when it’s big tech’s turn to report by browsing the Earnings calendar ).
• Gold and bonds saw inflows — typical defensive plays.
• Energy and industrials may catch bids if tariffs stick.
🪙 A Note to Crypto Bros
Bitcoin’s 7% slide shows that once-independent assets have spent too much time with traditional risk assets.
And now they’re almost impossible to tell apart. As institutional capital grows in crypto, it behaves more like a growth play where risk is embraced during good times, but dumped during bad.
The lesson? Don’t buy the “decoupling” narrative so easily. Bitcoin may hedge against long-term fiat decay, but in a short-term panic, it’s still part of the same risk ecosystem. The smart move is to trade correlations , not beliefs.
If Bitcoin drops with stocks during a tariff tantrum, that’s confirmation that institutional traders are playing both arenas.
🧡 Final Takeaway
Let’s acknowledge that Friday’s bloodbath was catastrophic to many . It wiped out traders that were holding both stocks and crypto. If that happened to you, as painful as it is, keep your head up, take a breath (or a break), and come back another day.
And when you do, widen your chart, trim that leverage and keep your bets nimble so you’d survive the next inevitable meltdown.
Finally, we can't not address the elephant in the room. It was likely another Trump-led market rinse-and-repeat cycle: tweet, panic, rebound. Futures are recovering after Trump waved away tariff fears , saying “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!”
Off to you : How did you fare Friday? And what's your way of weathering the market storms? Share your experience in the comments!
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US 500 Index – Limited Correction Or Sentiment Reversal?With all the talk in the financial press last week of a potential AI bubble, soaring volatility in the precious metals market, and an on-going US government shutdown, perhaps it was understandable that traders were a little on edge going into Friday. So, when President Trump’s new threats of 100% tariffs on China were posted on social media late in the afternoon the reaction was a big downside correction, which saw the US 500 drop around 3.6% from its all-time highs of 6769 seen just a day earlier to a low of 6508.
Since then, comments from President Trump and Vice President Vance over the weekend regarding China have seemed to be more conciliatory in tone, signalling an openness to get back to the negotiating table and hammer out a deal in some form. This has seen all markets breath a small sigh of relief and led the US 500 to open higher, currently trading up 2.2% around 6650 (0800 BST). However, whether this positivity continues may depend on multiple factors, including the technical outlook (more on this below).
While trader sensitivity to the next round of comments from the US and Chinese administrations regarding the on-going trade tensions could remain high, they may also be keen to receive the latest Q3 earnings from the major US banks, with JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reporting on Tuesday (before the open), then Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reporting on Wednesday (before the open). While the focus may be on assessing actual performance against expectations, it could also be important to hear the outlook for future revenue, the direction of US economic growth and the size of bad debt provisions.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also speaks on Tuesday at 1720 BST and with the US government shutdown delaying the release of the most recent inflation updates (CPI/PPI) which were due this week until later in October, any comments he makes regarding the inflation outlook or the potential for an October Fed rate cut could take on extra significance.
Technical Update: Limited Correction or Sentiment Reversal?
Headline-driven price sell-offs like the one experienced on Friday (Oct 10th) are unpredictable, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management. If you're long of an asset during such volatility, having well-placed stop-losses is crucial to limit downside exposure, especially when liquidity starts to reduce, as it likely did ahead of today’s US holiday. These events serve as a reminder that protecting your trading capital is just as important as delivering profitable outcomes.
After such a sharp sell-off, the question is whether it marks a brief, exaggerated correction within a broader uptrend or signals a deeper negative sentiment shift that could lead to further price weakness.
The answer may well depend on how the price of the US 500 reacts in the upcoming sessions. Whether support levels hold, momentum stabilises, and buyers return or whether the price decline deepens and the next support levels give way.
The jury may still be out on this, but as the chart above shows, judging the potential key support and resistance levels could help gauge the next directional risks. A closing break of either side may offer signals to the next phase of price activity.
If the Sell-Off Reflects a Negative Sentiment Shift:
Friday’s sharp decline may have already breached some initial support levels, raising the risk of a more extended phase of price weakness.
The daily Bollinger mid-average (currently 6668) is typically viewed by traders as a support level in an uptrend and this level was broken on a closing basis within Friday’s decline. Despite this morning’s rally, 6668 could now act as a resistance, and if it remains intact, could keep upside activity in check for now.
While 6668 resistance holds on a closing basis, this morning’s recovery may be viewed by some as a reactionary bounce following Friday’s sharp decline, leaving possibilities of renewed selling pressure later in the week.
If this proves to be the case, closing breaks below potential support at 6550, a level which is equal to half the rebound from Friday’s low, might lead to renewed downside pressure. This may open tests of 6490, the 50% retracement of the August 1st to October 9th rally, with a closing break below this level, suggesting scope for moves toward 6224 which is the 61.8% retracement.
If the Sell-Off Proves to be a Limited Correction:
While Friday’s decline was sharper and larger than any since the June 2025 lows, traders may now be watching whether current price strength can close back above the 6668 Bollinger mid-average.
While not a guarantee of renewed price strength, past declines since June 23rd 2025, have seen US 500 prices recover to close back above this line, leading to resumed attempts at upside strength. A closing break back above 6668 may once again open attempts to push to higher levels.
If confirmed, a break above resistance at 6668 may lead to further upside back toward 6769, which is the October 9th all-time high. Should this level give way, further strength may extend toward 6866, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension of last week’s sharp decline.
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Trump’s Decision Shakes Global Financial MarketsTrump’s Decision Shakes Global Financial Markets
On Friday, 10 October, President Trump made an unexpected statement about the possible introduction of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, triggering sharp price swings across global markets:
→ Stock markets: The S&P 500 index tumbled by more than 3%, hitting its lowest level in over a month.
→ Currency markets: The US dollar slumped sharply against other major currencies.
However, on Sunday, Donald Trump softened his tone on Truth Social, suggesting that trade relations with Beijing “will be absolutely fine”. Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment, adding that the United States is ready for talks if China is “prepared to act reasonably”.
This shift in rhetoric from US officials helped markets recover, with the S&P 500 index rebounding sharply at Monday’s open, reclaiming much of Friday’s losses.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
In our previous analysis of the 4-hour S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) on 4 October, we identified an upward channel (shown in blue) and expressed several concerns:
→ The price was approaching the upper boundary of the channel, where long positions are often closed for profit.
→ The latest peak slightly exceeded the October high (A), suggesting a potential bearish divergence.
→ The news blackout caused by the government shutdown created an “information vacuum”, which could quickly turn sentiment negative if filled with adverse developments.
The lower boundary of the blue channel offered only temporary support near 6,644 points on Friday before the price broke downwards. Doubling the channel width provides a projected target near 6,500, which coincides with Friday’s low.
Given these factors, it can be assumed that the lower line of the blue channel now acts as the median of a broader range following Friday’s sell-off. This suggests that in the coming days, the S&P 500 index may stabilise as demand and supply find temporary balance along this line.
Looking further ahead, the situation may resemble that of early April, when after a panic-driven market drop (also triggered by Trump’s tariff comments), the S&P 500 not only fully recovered but went on to reach new highs.
Key Levels:
→ 6,705 – a level that has acted as both support and resistance this autumn;
→ 6,606 – the boundary of the bullish gap.
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HOW-TO: Forecast Next-Bar Odds with Markov ProbCast🎯 Goal
In 5 minutes, you’ll add Markov ProbCast to a chart, calibrate the “big-move” threshold θ for your instrument/timeframe, and learn how to read the next-bar probabilities and regime signals
(🟩 Calm | 🟧 Neutral | 🟥 Volatile).
🧩 Add & basic setup
Open any chart and timeframe you trade.
Add Markov ProbCast — P(next-bar) Forecast Panel from the Public Library (search “Markov ProbCast”).
Inputs (recommended starting point):
• Returns: Log
• Include Volume (z-score): On (Lookback = 60)
• Include Range (HL/PrevClose): On
• Rolling window N (transitions): 90
• θ as percent: start at 0.5% (we’ll calibrate next)
• Freeze forecast at last close: On (stable readings)
• Display: leave plots/partition/samples On
📏 Calibrate θ (2-minute method)
Pick θ so the “>+θ” bucket truly flags meaningful bars for your market & timeframe. Try:
• If intraday majors / large caps: θ ≈ 0.2%–0.6% on 1–5m; 0.3%–0.8% on 15–60m.
• If high-vol crypto / small caps: θ ≈ 0.5%–1.5% on 1–5m; 0.8%–2.0% on 15–60m.
Then watch the Partition row for a day: if the “>+θ” bucket is almost never triggered, lower θ a bit; if it’s firing constantly, raise θ. Aim so “>+θ” captures move sizes you actually care about.
📖 Read the panel (what the numbers mean)
• P(next r > 0) : Directional tilt for the very next candle.
• P(next r > +θ) : Odds of a “big” upside move beyond your θ.
• P(next r < −θ) : Odds of a “big” downside move.
• Partition (>+θ | 0..+θ | −θ..0 | <−θ): Four buckets that ≈ sum to 100%.
• Next Regime Probs : Chance the market flips to 🟩 Calm / 🟧 Neutral / 🟥 Volatile next bar.
• Samples : How many historical next-bar examples fed each next-state estimate (confidence cue).
Note: Heavy calculations update on confirmed bars; with “Freeze” on, values won’t flicker intrabar.
📚 Two practical playbooks
Breakout prep
• Watch P(next r > +θ) trending up and staying elevated (e.g., > 25–35%).
• A rising Next Regime: Volatile probability supports expansion context.
• Combine with your trigger (structure break, session open, liquidity sweep).
Mean-reversion defense
• If already long and P(next r < −θ) lifts while Volatile odds rise, consider trimming size, widening stops, or waiting for a better setup.
• Mirror the logic for shorts when P(next r > +θ) lifts.
⚙️ Tuning & tips
• N=90 balances adaptivity and stability. For very fast regimes, try 60; for slower instruments, 120.
• Keep Freeze at close on for cleaner alerts/decisions.
• If Samples are small and values look jumpy, give it time (more bars) or increase N slightly.
🧠 Why this works (the math, briefly)
We learn a 3-state regime and its transition matrix A (A = P(Sₜ₊₁=j | Sₜ=i)), estimate next-bar event odds conditioned on the next state (e.g., q_gt(j)=P(rₜ₊₁>+θ | Sₜ₊₁=j)), then forecast by mixing:
P(event) = Σⱼ A · q(event | next=j).
Laplace/Beta smoothing, per-state sample gating, and unconditional fallbacks keep estimates robust.
❓FAQ
• Why do probabilities change across instruments/timeframes? Different volatility structure → different transitions and conditional odds.
• Why do I sometimes see “…” or NA? Not enough recent samples for a next-state; the tool falls back until data accumulate.
• Can I use it standalone? It’s a context/forecast panel—pair it with your entry/exit rules and risk management.
📣 Want more?
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SPX: Tariffs 2.0 slams marketSPX stumbles as trade tensions resurface, feeding volatility into Friday's close. Friday was a painful day on financial markets, with a correction of 2,71%. For one more time it all started with the announcement on social networks of the US President that the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports from China starting November 1st. The rest is history - around $2 trillion from markets was wiped out. A similar situation occurred in April this year, when the never-ending story about tariffs started. Finally, the market settled that around 40% tariffs on imports from China would not impact the US economy at the higher level. However, analysts are estimating that the 100% tariffs might hurt the US economy more severely.
Semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and AMD led Friday’s market decline. Nvidia fell 5% amid uncertainty over its efforts to gain approval from the U.S. and China to sell downgraded AI chips. AMD, which had recently driven the tech rally, dropped nearly 8%. Apple and Tesla also saw sharp losses, down 3% and 5% respectively. However, the pullback wasn’t limited to China-exposed names, it was a broad-based sell-off, with 424 of the S&P 500 stocks closing in the red. The magnitude of the drop forced institutional investors to de-risk across the board, selling other positions to cover losses and raise cash as tech dragged portfolios lower. Only a few defensive names, including Walmart and tobacco-related stocks, managed to end the day slightly higher.
The current question is what does Monday bring? On one side, investors might continue to perceive tariffs impact negatively, so the correction might continue. On the opposite side are investors who will be in the mood of wait-and-see if a current threat of 100% tariffs will actually come to effect, or some sort of agreement on the state levels will be achieved.
SPX for October 13thOversold not unwound as yet.6700-6720 will test the bulls.Buyers will want it to stay above 6600
October 13 - October 17 2025I decided to go through and consolidate my charts this week to make for easier decision making. Friday’s sell off was a sign of weakness in a market that was already showing strain. While the drop on resumed trade war threats was swift, the rest of the market had a muted response. Heading into this week, we should see another big move and I will try to be open to trading either side depending on how this develops.
1. Macro
Gold is still in its uptrend and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. I don’t have it charted here, but Gold’s volatility index CBOE:GVZ spiked during Friday’s session, however buyers seemed to be absorbing the volatility since it still closed up over 1%. Gold has already made a new ATH today and I do not expect to see the trend change this week.
The dollar TVC:DXY seems to be near the top of its deviation from the flat EMA. I think we will see the dollar move lower which could boost Gold, Stocks, or both. Next, we saw TVC:US03MY remain relatively flat during Friday’s sell off while TVC:US10Y moved sharply lower during the session, making the TVC:US10Y -US03MY spread very tight once again. Since real yields are still edging up and the 3M bond stayed flat during the panic, that leads me to believe the bond market volatility was contained and may not be indicative of a true risk-off reaction.
One reason why US Treasuries will continue to catch a bid is that as forward inflation expectations continue to slide (bottom left chart), the real return is still attractive compared to bonds from other major countries. We’ll see if the renewed trade sparring will change the forward inflation exceptions trend since the data from TIPS is delayed, however for now I’ll continue to base my perception on what I’m currently seeing on the chart.
Lastly, Oil is continuing to see an average decline. Hopefully middle eastern peace efforts are successful, which could keep the price subdued. On the bottom chart I have combined the average of MCX:COPPER1! and Corn CBOT:ZC1! into a single line compared to TVC:DXY , which aims to show real demand (and/or inflation) pressure against the Dollar’s relative strength. Here we can see commodities took a hit on Friday but the trend is still very strong to the upside. Since forward inflation expectations are down and the dollar is flat, this may be pointing to the presence of real demand, which should be bullish for equities.
2. Risk
Even when looking at the past six months on a line chart, the pullback, Friday’s drop was significant. As I mentioned last week, there are important risk-health items to watch for here. I’m now just charting the High Yield OAS - Investment Grade OAS spread, which was already starting to move up before Friday’s sell off. This data is only reported once per day for the previous session, so the impact on corporate bond yields is not yet known. This will be very important to pay attention to, as it could signal true aversion to risk.
Next, the $ES1!/GOLD spread is declining and should continue until Gold enters a re-accumulation phase. Anyone’s guess when that will be so for now I think it’s safe to assume that Stocks will continue to underperform Gold, and if Friday’s drop was any indication of which side is in control, it serves as confirmation that stocks are sensitive to bad news. Buyers seem to be the ones getting absorbed.
The third chart on the top shows that although CME_MINI:NQ1! has been outperforming CBOT_MINI:YM1! since the market bottomed, the momentum seems to be stalling out. I’ll be looking at the sectors to find any further signs of sustained rotation.
3. Sector Analysis
My notes are best explained in the screenshot but my comment is that most of the decline on Friday came from AMEX:XLK (Tech sector) selling off. Other sectors performed better against SPX, with AMEX:XLP (Consumer Staples) seemingly breaking out of a decline, however as you can see from the chart on the right, it has still been the worst performer against the other indices over the past three months.
One session is not enough to change the trend, however it will be important to watch for continued rotation out of tech and into other sectors. This could cause CME_MINI:NQ1! to decline against CBOT_MINI:YM1! as I suggested earlier, and would signal the market is positioning for a more sustained downturn - likely caused by disappointing growth.
4. Bias
This is the chart I have tried to condense the most. I have switched to just using Line Break as my main chart for ES, which I found performed better than Renko when combined with my other indicators. On the lefthand side, I am using Session CVD but got rid of my other indicators and made a CVD Momentum indicator, which tracks the momentum of CVD rising or falling over an anchor period (1 week). I’m still using a range chart calculation for this chart, currently set to 20R.
On the right, I am using what I’ll call my Volatility Dashboard, however it does not start producing a useful signal until premarket. Based on Volatility, it can be said with certainty that dealers went long on puts right before the sell-off began.
From a technical standpoint, the price was in a rising wedge and dumped after it made a higher high that did not reach the upper trend line. Rising channels are generally bullish, however the extent of Friday’s free fall could mean that even if the price quickly recovers, it may be forming a top similar to what we saw last December. This is why risk indicators like corporate bond spreads, sector performance, and changes to the macro structure will be important to monitor over the coming days.
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Conclusion
For this week, all I can say with certainty is that I think there will be some good opportunities. Here is what I believe can be safely assessed from this analysis:
1. Stocks remain under pressure, however “smart money” will require more time to rotate out of tech, leading to repeated retests of the top of the range.
2. Tailwinds for stocks are potential real demand in agriculture and industrial material that is not impacting the market’s forward inflation expectation.
3. “Smart Money” will sell volatility (puts) into pullbacks if the price is set to be driven higher, or will do the opposite, buying volatility (puts) and selling calls on low volume rips
This is why I will be looking for more confirmation before taking a side, as the market’s goal now is to clear out liquidity. When it comes to the larger trend, I tend to think that stocks do not seem to be showing strength over the larger macro structure, however that does not necessarily dictate that the index will come down another 8%. Instead, I think at the very least we will stay in a flat range for the time being.
I do not think the market is ready to go on a bull run, nor do I think the environment is showing a risk-off bias that is strong enough to warrant stocks going straight down. If we meet resistance near the top of the range, I’ll look at volatility positioning and CVD for the signal to go short. Conversely, if we make a higher low I will go long on calls to the top of the range.
Good luck to all and thanks for reading!
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to support area of 6646 .Colleagues, in the last forecast I was counting on price reaching the 6550 area, but that plan turned out to be a long term plan. I see the sense in making some shorter term targets.
The closest target I see is the 6646 support area, where wave “4” ends. This is a corrective movement, so it is necessary to realize that the price may continue to fall after reaching the target.
Fundamental context
U.S. inflation remains elevated — CPI rose to about 2.9 % YoY, with core inflation around 3.1 %. At the same time, the labor market continues to cool, and corporate earnings show mixed results. Combined with the Fed’s cautious stance and ongoing fiscal uncertainty, this creates pressure on the stock market.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Us500 sellsUS 500 is in a clear bearish downtrend and we are waiting for that important key level to hit so we short
