S&P500 | H1 Head and shoulders | GTradingMethodHello Traders.
🧐 Market Overview:
I am still holding a short on the rising wedge visible on the 4-hour chart. While the S&P 500 has broken out to the upside of the wedge, there’s still a real chance this could be a fake out.
The RSI is showing overbought conditions across the 1H, 2H, and 4H timeframes, which makes it difficult for price to push higher without cooling off first. From a probability standpoint, I see the short as more favorable here than chasing longs.
With hindsight I should have waited for a reversal pattern to open shorts when trying to trade the risking wedge on the 4 hour chart.
If the head and shoulders pattern on the 1H chart fails, then a possible double top on the 2H chart may form. I’ll post an update if that scenario plays out and I have time.
NB! I do not have confirmation to enter the head and shoulders short yet. It is only on my radar for now.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 3.8
Entry: 6 589.7
Stop Loss: 6 599
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 560.2
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 544.2
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
A favorable setup doesn’t guarantee success, but managing risk and aligning with probability is how I stay consistent over the long term.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts — I’d like to hear them.
📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
Trade ideas
Applying the Nx BIAS indicator to US500After my latest thread about the 🛡️ Nx BIAS 🛡️ indicator for determining market bias, I decided to take a scalp trade as a backtesting exercise on the US500 pair.
Entry details:
Defined the DOL and Invalidation levels using the Nx Bias indicator on the 2Htimeframe.
Identified the area of interest and executed the entry on the 5m - 1m timeframe for the same pair.
Next steps and forward testing:
I will be testing this indicator more extensively. The main goal is to rely solely on it for bias determination under live market conditions to evaluate its real-time performance, moving beyond backtesting results.
Disclaimer: Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
Best regards,
Note: The indicator is not yet available and will be released soon under the name Nx Candle Bias.
SPX500 Holds Below 6,590 Pivot – Key Breakout Levels AheadSPX500 – Overview
The S&P 500 is showing bullish momentum but remains sensitive to the 6,590 pivot for confirmation of the next move.
📉 Bearish scenario: As long as price trades below 6,590, momentum favors a drop toward 6,571. A confirmed break under 6,571 would open the way to 6,550 → 6,527.
📈 Bullish scenario: A 1H close above 6,590 would shift bias bullish, targeting 6,604 → 6,631.
Key Level
Pivot: 6,590
Resistance: 6,604 – 6,631
Support: 6,571 – 6,550 – 6,527
SPX: rte-cut hypeJust a week before the September FOMC meeting, the S&P 500 reached another fresh, new all-time highest level at 6.594 at Friday's trading session. The index managed to gain another 1,6% for the week. The latest move is sort of gearing-up for the forthcoming FOMC meeting, where the market is expecting to see a 25 bps cut by FED officials. The jobs and inflation figures posted during the week, showed further stabilisation in inflation levels, but also weakening of the US jobs market. Both figures are supportive of the Fed to make a decision over a quarter-point rate cut. However, analysts are noting that the tone and rhetoric of Fed Chair Powell in after the meeting press conference on September 17th, will be crucial for the next move of US equity markets. Certainly, this will mark the most important day for financial markets in the week ahead.
Tech companies are again the ones that are driving the market to the higher grounds, TSLA gained 7,36% on Friday, continuing a recent upward trend. Despite no major announcements from Tesla, the stock has gained nearly 12% over the past week, driven by investor optimism that declining interest rates could boost car sales. The artificial intelligence tech firm Super Micro Computer jumped 6% after announcing it had begun volume shipments of its Nvidia Blackwell Ultra solutions to customers globally. Warner Bros Discovery rose nearly 8%, building on Thursday’s 29% surge, after reports in the news indicated that Paramount Skydance is preparing a takeover offer.
EURUSD: gearing up for FOMCThe Non-farm payrolls annual revision showed a drop of -911K jobs. Analysts are noting that this is another indicator of a cooling US jobs market. The Producers price Index in August dropped by -0,1% for the month, reaching 2,6% on a yearly basis. The core PPI also dropped by -0,1%. Both indicators were below market estimates of 0,3% for the month. The Inflation rate in August reached 0,4% for the month and 2,9% on a yearly basis. The core inflation remains a bit elevated at level of 0,3% for month and 3,1% y/y. Friday brought Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary figures for September at 51,8, which was a bit below forecasted 54,9. Inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4,8%.
The ECB meeting was held during the previous week, where ECB members left interest rates unchanged. The Deposit Facility Rates held at 2%, while Marginal Lending Rate at 2,4%. This was in line with market expectations, considering external challenges for the EU economy, in terms of trade tariffs. The balance of trade in July in Germany reached euro 14,7B, another month with missed market expectations of euro 15,4B. The Industrial Production in July in Germany was higher by 1,3%, above market estimate of 1%.
For the second week in a row, the eurusd currency pair was moving within a relatively short range. There were no surprises when the ECB interest rate decision was in question, so the market switched its attention to the forthcoming FOMC meeting. The trading range was between 1,1777 down to 1,1663. The RSI continues to oscillate around the 50 level, showing that the market is currently not heaving a clear path toward either side. The MA50 slowly started to converge toward the MA200, but the distance between lines shows that the potential cross is still not in store.
As already mentioned, the week ahead brings the September FOMC meeting. This one is going to be especially significant, as the market is highly expecting to see the 25 bps cut. Usually , prior to meeting, market nervousness increases, in which sense, some increased volatility might be in store for the currency pair. Current charts are showing potential for a move toward both sides. On the lower grounds, there is potential for 1,1650 to be tested shortly, while on the opposite side, 1,1780 is waiting to be tested for a potential for higher grounds.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Wholesale Prices in Germany in August, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in September in Germany, Inflation rate in the Euro Zone in August, Producers Price Index in August in Germany.
USD: Retail Sales in August, Building Permits preliminary for August, Housing Starts in August, FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday, September 17th, with a press conference after the meeting.
"US500 BREAKOUT – TIME TO LOAD LIMIT ORDERS FOR THE PUMP?"🔥🦹♂️ "SPX500 BANK HEIST – LAYERED BULL RAID IN PROGRESS!" 💰📈
(Thief Trader’s Multi-Limit Order Bullish Ambush – No Weak Hands Allowed)
📍 ASSET: US500 / SPX500 (S&P 500 INDEX)
🎯 HEIST PLAN: BULLISH BREAKOUT 6500.00
💣 ENTRY: ANY PRICE LEVEL (Thieves use Layered Limit Orders – adapt like a pro!)
🔫 SAMPLE LAYERS: (Scale in like a boss!)
BUY LIMIT LAYER 1: 6475.00
BUY LIMIT LAYER 2: 6460.00
BUY LIMIT LAYER 3: 6440.00
(Add more layers if needed – flexibility is key!)
🛑 STOP LOSS: 6400.00 (Thief’s Emergency Exit – adjust based on your risk!)
🎯 TARGET: 6600.00 (First profit zone – trail or take gains!)
🦹♂️ THIEF TRADER’S MASTER PLAN:
"We don’t ask for permission – we take profits."
🔹 ENTRY TACTICS:
Use multiple limit orders (LAYERED STRATEGY) – like planting timed explosives at key levels.
No panic entries – thieves strike with precision, not emotion.
DCA if needed – but keep bullets for the real move.
🔹 STOP LOSS RULES:
6400 = Danger Zone – if price breaks, abort mission & regroup.
SL too tight? You’ll get stopped out by market noise. SL too wide? You’ll bleed. Find balance.
🔹 TAKE PROFIT STRATEGY:
First TP @ 6600 – secure partial profits.
Let runners ride with trailing stop – or full exit if momentum fades.
🚨 THIEF’S GOLDEN RULES:
✅ Only LONG – no revenge shorts, no greed traps.
✅ Trade in SILENCE – avoid high-impact news (CPI, NFP, Fed).
✅ Risk management = Survival – don’t blow your account on one play.
✅ BOOST & SHARE – if this plan helps, spread the word!
📢 FINAL WARNING:
"This is not financial advice – it’s a thief’s blueprint.
Plan your escape before entry. Market heists require discipline."
💬 COMMENT "ROBBING SPX" if you’re in!
🔥 LIKE & BOOST if you ride with the Thief Trader crew!
🦹♂️ THIEF TRADER OUT.
💸 STEAL SMART. GET RICH. REPEAT.
sp500 4hTrading Outlooks for the Week Ahead
In this series of analyses, we review short-term trading outlooks and perspectives.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone close to the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or breakout from these levels will determine the next price movement toward the specified targets.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight critical price levels ahead and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
Crack-Up BOOM and BUSTHey everyone, Wave-Tech here. Join me on a historic journey as I reconstruct the Grand Super Cycle while diving into the historic and captivating world of Elliott Wave Theory!
This was to have been my maiden video cast—it didn't turn out as well as I hoped. Time got away from me, and the video ended abruptly before I could finish.
Rather than redoing it, I decided to keep the first and most authentic take intact for better or worse.
I made it private so that I could review it before publishing; however, I let too much time pass and was unable to change the setting back to public from private .
You can view the private video HERE :
The accompanying text is beneath the chart below:
In the simplest terms, Elliott Wave Theory is a measure of market psychology and sentiment coupled with Fibonnaci ratios designed to create a structural framework for determining at what stage of advance or decline a given market is in.
The basic premise for inherent advance and progress is three steps forward (impulse waves 1, 3, and 5) and two steps back (corrective waves 2 and 4).
According to Elliott, there are 9 degrees of trend, all of which are fractal in nature. The largest is the Grand Super Cycle, and the smallest is the Sub-Minuette.
Today, we’re exploring a yearly bar chart of the S&P, which covers trends at the Super Cycle and Cycle degree, revealing the pending culmination of a Grand Super Cycle—a colossal trend spanning centuries.
Buckle up as we unravel the rhythms of the stock market's epic ride!
The SUPER CYCLE:
Let’s start with the big picture: five waves of advance at the Super Cycle degree.
According to Ralph Nelson Elliott, with the sole exception of the GRAND SUPER CYCLE, the Super Cycle is the largest of all trends, a monumental set of impulsive and corrective waves that will set the tone and punctuate Grand Super Cycle terminals for Centuries to come—or at least through the fall of Empires or Civilizations.
Each of these waves tells a story of growth, correction, and renewal. The current Grand Super Cycle has been shaping markets and Nations for over a century. We can see this Grand Super Cycle unfolding in waves of Super Cycle dimension.
WAVE COUNTS:
The chart highlights five waves at Super Cycle degree: the first lasted 52 years with a gain of more than 1000%, the third stretched 68 years with a staggering 33,336% gain, and the fourth, a shorter 9-year span, saw a -57.06% loss, which marked the GFC low in 2009.
We are currently in the fifth Super Cycle wave, which is still unfolding and could mark the end of this Grand Super Cycle at any moment.
In contrast, the post-GFC "everything bubble" Crack-Up BOOM can persist to the upper trend channel boundaries noted near 18k and 35k.
Zooming in, we encounter the fractal Cycle degree waves comprising Super Cycle (III). Take Cycle Wave III and Cycle V, both 26 years long, delivering gains of 1,191% and 2,313% respectively.
And from the Super Cycle wave (IV) low in 2009, we are 16 years into Super Cycle Wave V, with an impressive 872% gain as of September 5, 2025.
This current wave could easily extend further, but its length is sufficient to suggest we may be nearing a pivotal turning point that might end the Grand Super Cycle with a sufficient black swan trigger.
The Fourth Turning:
Now, let’s touch briefly on the 85-year cycle, a rhythm that syncs beautifully with the concept of the "fourth turning"—a period of crisis and transformation.
The last one kicked off in 1945, post-World War II, ushering in the rules-based order that America and the West thrived in—an order that is arguably destined to end by 2030 if it hasn't already. This turning cycle hints at a historic shift on the horizon, or one that is currently already underway.
THE RSI:
Glance at the lower pane of the chart, where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a tale of caution. Since 1955, we’ve endured 16 long years of multiple bearish divergences—times when the market’s price and momentum didn’t align, signaling trouble ahead.
I like to call this the bearish divergences that cried wolf for nearly a generation! Note that it wasn't until the RSI closed beneath the mid-line that the sell-off into the 1974 low registered an oversold reading.
We saw the RSI fail again upon the new highs in 1993-94 following the highs in 1987.
1995 kicked off the infamous five years of irrational exuberance, which led to the tech bubble peak and subsequent crash into the 2002 low.
Not to be outdone by the 2000 blow-off top, the 2002 low ushered in yet another five years of irrational exuberance, culminating right in time for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This time, the RSI finally got it right on the first go round.
Currently, against the highs printed in 2021, the V-shaped snap-back rally following the mini bear market of 2022, the move to new highs in 2024 has flagged a bona fide bearish divergence. It will be interesting to see how the RSI looks after the close of 2025.
These divergences are like red flags, whispering that the party might not last forever, even though it may.
Price Targets:
So, where might this Super Cycle Wave V take us in terms of price? Let’s apply a Fibonacci projection—specifically, where Wave V equals 4.236 of Wave IV.
Doing the math, from the Wave IV base at 666.79, we’re looking at a target of around 7,226-7,233 on the S&P 500.
That’s only about 10% upside from recent highs—not quite the blow-off top of 18K or 35K, but a target to approach with eyes wide open.
Now, let’s consider a sobering scenario:
If Super Cycle Wave V ends here, or north of 7K, signaling the close of Grand Super Cycle ONE, history might repeat itself with a bear market akin to 1929’s four-year plunge.
An 86% decline could drop the S&P to around 917—still well above the Wave IV low of 666.79, another common target, but a stark reminder of the cycles’ power.
In Closing:
Thank you all for listening and reading if you've gotten this far. This was my first video. I got blindsided and cut off by the time constraint, so I apologize for the abrupt ending.
The market’s cycles and waves are a dance of numbers and human spirit, and we’ve only scratched the surface of their grandeur and implications.
Stay curious, stay informed, and keep your life vests on while riding these waves, okay!
SPX500USD could go higherHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD played out exactly as predicted in my previous outlook. Right at the open it started the upmove and it continued the whole week making a new ATH.
Next week we could see this pair going up some more.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 12, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the previous trading session, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a substantial upward movement, reaching and completing the Outer Index Rally 6543, and it is striding towards our current designated target: Outer Index Rally 6620, as detailed in the prior S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis.
It is critical to recognize that upon reaching this momentous target, the resulting price action is anticipated to initiate a significant pullback targeting the Mean Support level of 6485. This pullback is likely to facilitate a considerable rebound, allowing for a subsequent retest of the Outer Index Rally level of 6620.
Why Forex Reserves Matter in Trading1. What Are Forex Reserves?
Forex reserves are assets held by a nation’s central bank in foreign currencies, precious metals like gold, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and other reserve assets. These reserves are not just passive holdings; they are active instruments used for monetary policy, currency stabilization, and ensuring global payment obligations.
Key Components of Forex Reserves
Foreign Currencies – Typically held in USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, and increasingly CNY.
Gold Holdings – A traditional hedge against inflation and currency risk.
SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) – An IMF-backed reserve asset that supplements official reserves.
IMF Reserve Position – Access to IMF funding if needed.
2. Why Countries Accumulate Forex Reserves
Stability in Currency Markets
Countries need reserves to intervene in forex markets to prevent excessive volatility in their domestic currency.
Confidence for International Trade
Exporters and importers prefer dealing with countries that can guarantee payment stability.
Debt Servicing
Reserves allow governments to service foreign debt obligations without defaulting.
Buffer Against Economic Shocks
Acts as insurance against sudden capital flight, trade imbalances, or geopolitical crises.
Support for Sovereign Credit Ratings
Higher reserves improve investor confidence and reduce borrowing costs.
3. Importance of Forex Reserves in Global Trading
3.1 Stabilizing Currency Values
A currency’s exchange rate plays a central role in trade competitiveness. For example, if the Indian Rupee depreciates too rapidly, imports like oil and electronics become expensive. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can sell USD from its reserves to supply dollars in the forex market, stabilizing the rupee.
3.2 Controlling Inflation
Imported inflation is a major risk for countries dependent on foreign goods. By using reserves to maintain a stable currency, central banks reduce inflationary pressures, which directly impacts stock and bond markets.
3.3 Investor Confidence
High reserves attract foreign institutional investors (FIIs) because they see lower risk of capital restrictions. Conversely, low reserves signal vulnerability, causing capital flight.
3.4 Crisis Management
During the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, countries with low reserves like Thailand suffered massive currency collapses, while nations with higher reserves recovered faster.
4. How Forex Reserves Impact Trading Across Markets
4.1 Currency Trading (Forex Markets)
Traders closely monitor reserve levels to predict central bank interventions.
A rise in reserves indicates strong capital inflows or trade surpluses, usually strengthening the currency.
A fall in reserves may mean heavy intervention to defend the domestic currency, creating volatility.
4.2 Equity Markets
Strong reserves signal economic resilience, attracting long-term investments.
For export-driven companies, reserve usage can stabilize currency swings, reducing earnings risk.
4.3 Bond Markets
Nations with healthy reserves are seen as safer borrowers.
Sovereign bond yields fall when reserves are high, lowering borrowing costs.
4.4 Commodity Trading
Forex reserves influence global demand for commodities. For example, when China builds reserves, it often buys U.S. Treasuries and commodities, boosting global demand.
Gold prices also respond directly to central bank reserve diversification strategies.
5. Case Studies: Forex Reserves and Trading Dynamics
5.1 China
Holds the world’s largest reserves (over $3 trillion).
Uses reserves to keep the yuan stable, ensuring export competitiveness.
Global traders watch China’s reserve reports to gauge trade and commodity flows.
5.2 India
As of 2025, India’s reserves are above $650 billion.
Provides a cushion against oil import costs and FII outflows.
Traders interpret rising Indian reserves as bullish for the rupee and equity markets.
5.3 Russia (Post-Sanctions)
Sanctions froze Russia’s dollar reserves in 2022.
Moscow shifted to gold and yuan, changing global reserve composition.
Traders saw sharp volatility in ruble trading due to limited access to USD reserves.
6. Forex Reserves as a Trading Indicator
For traders, reserves serve as a leading indicator of currency and capital flow trends.
Rising Reserves: Suggests export growth, capital inflows, and stable currency → bullish sentiment.
Falling Reserves: Signals interventions, capital flight, or trade deficits → bearish sentiment.
Traders often combine reserve data with:
Balance of Payments (BoP) reports
Capital account movements
Central bank policy signals
7. Risks of Over-Reliance on Reserves
While reserves are critical, there are risks:
Opportunity Cost – Funds invested in low-yield assets like U.S. Treasuries could have been used domestically.
Geopolitical Risk – Sanctions can freeze reserves held abroad.
Currency Depreciation of Reserve Assets – Holding too many USD assets can hurt if the dollar weakens.
False Security – Excessive reliance may delay structural economic reforms.
8. Future of Forex Reserves in Global Trading
Shift Toward Gold & Yuan – Central banks are diversifying away from the USD.
Digital Reserves (CBDCs) – Future reserves may include digital currencies issued by central banks.
Geopolitical Weaponization of Reserves – The Russia-Ukraine war highlighted how reserves can be frozen, making diversification essential.
AI and Data-Driven Reserve Management – Advanced analytics will improve reserve allocation strategies.
9. Lessons for Traders and Investors
Currency traders should track reserve levels as part of fundamental analysis.
Equity investors should see reserves as a buffer against volatility.
Bond traders should link reserves with sovereign credit risk.
Commodity traders should monitor how reserve diversification affects gold and oil demand.
Conclusion
Forex reserves are not just a financial cushion for governments; they are a critical trading signal that reflects a country’s economic health, ability to withstand crises, and global credibility. From stabilizing exchange rates to influencing global capital flows, reserves touch every corner of financial markets.
For traders, understanding the dynamics of reserves means being able to anticipate currency movements, equity flows, bond yields, and commodity prices with greater accuracy. In a world of heightened volatility, forex reserves remain one of the most powerful forces shaping international trade and financial stability.
SPX 6600 Target HitHello Traders, Well I expected a retrace by now but this market keeps powering higher. Well it finally hit the target many were talking about 6600 . It hit that number the other day on the ES as well. Its the 1.618 fib and the first resistance level and RSI is well overbought. Also we have a rate cut for Wednesday so a drop Monday and Tuesday before the rate cut on Wednesday powers the market and crypto higher makes sense. I don't think we are gonna get that big retrace I kind of expected yet. after we hit these targets we probably head up towards the dreaded 6666. See ya there!
"When the move is tiring." "Moves in the tiring stage will try to have the best chance for clearing debt and freaking out the market with high prices. The first move of this stage will go with fewer candles but high movement in price by itself. The second is opposite—its strength is weak, but its effort is strong (more candles)."
Let me know if you want to expand this into a trading strategy or a visual example. It's got a poetic rhythm to it—almost like market philosophy.
........
"Superiority zone will break in the chance of wonderful news, but only for a while. There should not be any trade—market needs to absorb the new price."
.........
"Pressure zone free is no longer a trade with real money. It's a controlled move to break the new price for the sake of the news and shift into a political view."
..........
"Free range is the zone that will hold the price strongly below or above it."
SPX500 (15m) | VolanX Protocol Analysis📊 SPX500 (15m) | VolanX Protocol Analysis
The index is pressing into the 6,617 zone, showing exhaustion at key Fib extensions.
Our VolanX model outlines two possible paths:
1️⃣ A corrective retracement toward 6,450 support before momentum rebuilds.
2️⃣ A continuation breakout, with upside targets at 6,689 and potentially 6,799.
⚖️ Bias: Neutral-to-bullish short-term, with risk of a healthy pullback before continuation.
🧠 VolanX Protocol continues monitoring momentum shifts, liquidity sweeps, and volatility clusters for adaptive trade execution.
🔗 #VolanXProtocol #WaverVanir #SPX500 #TradingAI #MarketIntelligence
US500 In strong bullish momentumFundamentals
The US500 remains supported by resilient earnings and the prospect of Federal Reserve easing, yet it faces notable vulnerabilities. While softer jobs growth and weakening leading indicators strengthen the case for upcoming rate cuts, a short term tailwind for equities, they also highlight the economy’s underlying fragility.
At the same time, elevated valuations and heavy market concentration in a handful of mega-cap leaders leave the index exposed to sharper corrections should sentiment shift.
For traders, monitoring sector rotation, earnings revisions, and macroeconomic signals will be critical to navigating opportunities while managing downside risks.
Technicals
US500 price action reveals a strong bullish trend, supported by momentum indicators and consistent uptrends, though signs of overbought conditions suggest a potential for short term pullbacks.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Support: 6,545 is a key technical support zone; below this, 6,505 is a significant psychological and trend support zone.
Immediate Resistance: 6,630 is the nearest overhead ceiling, followed by 6,690.
Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
S&P500 Historical Price Highs vs. Inflation-Adjusted Highs Nominal Price Definition (most used in history books & Wall Street research)
Inflation-Adjusted Definition (shown in your chart)
If you bought the 1929 top, you weren’t truly back to even (after inflation) until 1958.
Same with the 1968 top — real break-even wasn’t until the early ’90s.
Same with the 2000 top — real break-even was ~2016.
This method shows how devastating secular bears are if you happen to buy at the peak and hold. It makes the secular bears look even longer, because inflation erodes your gains even when the index regains its nominal high.






















