S&P500 | H2 Double Top | GTradingMethodHello Traders,
Watching the S&P for a potential double top.
It also aligns with the retest of the rising wedge, which is has already broken to the downside. This kind of confluence gives me extra excitement about a trade.
What I still need to happen for me to open the trade:
- H2 candle close in the entry range
- H2 candle that closes in the range needs a certain closure rate
- RSI needs to create another divergence
- Volume needs to be lower on T2, although my system does give exceptions if there is a data release, in this case FOMC, so exception will likely apply.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/reward = Between 3.3 and 4.3
Entry price = Between 6630 and 6639.9
Stop loss price = Between 6649.2 and 6656.8
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 6576
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 6553
I would ideally like my stop loss above the rising wedge, that way it needs to break through both barriers.
Also, if this pattern plays out, I think it will drag the crypto market down with it... Unfortunately.
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
Always predefine your risk before entering a trade. This is a non negotiable to becoming a professional trader.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me for updates and let me know in the comments — do you see the wedge retest as bearish, or do you think the bulls have more room to run?
📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
Peace
G
SPX500 trade ideas
S&P 500 Index Holds Near Record High Ahead of Fed AnnouncementS&P 500 Index Holds Near Record High Ahead of Fed Announcement
At 21:00 GMT+3 today, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference. The rate is widely expected to be cut from 4.25%–4.50% to 4.00%–4.25%.
This will conclude a prolonged intrigue fuelled by President Trump:
→ his constant criticism of Powell for pursuing an “overly tight” policy;
→ the decision to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, which markets perceived as direct pressure on the regulator’s independence.
In anticipation of the outcome, traders are showing optimism. The S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high yesterday, climbing above 6,640 points. This morning the price pulled back slightly, which can be interpreted as a short-term correction ahead of a key event. Effectively, the market has already priced in the expected policy easing, viewing it as a catalyst for further growth.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
Six days ago, when analysing the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), we noted that:
→ the price was oscillating within an upward channel (marked in blue);
→ in September, the index has been following a steep bullish trajectory (marked in orange), with its lower line showing signs of support.
Since then, favourable inflation data helped the bulls break above the channel’s upper boundary (highlighted with an arrow).
Possible scenarios:
Bullish perspective:
→ The breakout candle above the blue channel has a long body, signalling strong buying momentum – an imbalance, also known in Smart Money Concept (SMC) as a Fair Value Gap (FVG).
→ The local level of 6,600, once resistance, has now turned into support; the next target could be the psychological level of 6,700.
→ The price is consolidating above the blue channel’s upper boundary, indicating robust demand.
Bearish perspective:
→ The upper boundary of the orange channel may act as resistance.
→ The RSI indicator, although off overbought territory, remains close to it – potentially deterring buyers from entering at elevated prices.
Taking all of this into account, the current balance could easily be disrupted once the Fed announces its rate decision – arguably the most significant event of the month in the economic calendar. Be prepared for spikes in volatility, as sharp moves in either direction are possible.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
US500Success in forex and stocks comes from a combination of knowledge, discipline, and patience. Understanding market trends, economic factors, and company fundamentals is crucial, but equally important is controlling emotions and sticking to a well-planned strategy. Continuous learning, adapting to changing conditions, and managing risk wisely can turn opportunities into consistent growth over time. Consistency, not luck, separates successful traders from the rest.
S&P500 | H1 Head and Shoulders | GTradingMethod👋 Hello again fellow Traders,
I already have a short open from 6 633.7, but I’d love to see a Head & Shoulders pattern develop so I can scale into more shorts.
So far, the build-up looks promising — volume has picked up significantly on this drop, which is a bearish signal. That said, I’m still waiting on confirmation before committing further.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 3.1
Entry: 6 614.3
Stop Loss: 6 625.4
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 586.9
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 570.2
🔎 What I Need to See First:
A 30m candle to reach and close in range
Lower volume on the candle that closes in range vs. the left shoulder
More candles forming the right shoulder
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
Patience is key. The best trades usually come when all conditions align — not just some of them.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post! Make sure to follow me for updates, and keen to hear what your prediction is.
📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
What to do now that FEDs going to lower interest rates ?This is for traders who enjoys taking advantage of short term market movements. For investors who are holding on to great companies, just sit tight.
The first support level is the gap at 6023 price level. The 2nd level at 5689 is less likely but not impossible.
This fall will be good as US markets are over valued for a while and any falls will be a good accumulation point. Also, the month of September is also seasonally a down month so no hurry to get in. So do be patient and please DYODD.
My top wave count alt 6681/6712I have moved back into puts for 2027 rather deep in the money As we are now up almost 24 to 26 weeks in this rally .The PUT to call ratio is now into level I see as mind blowing on 5 10 and now 20 day . and also have three bearish Divergences from Rsi to two of my private models .I have a major turn once again based on the Spirals 2/19 top and 4/7 low they are due near the end of next week . I am now 95 % in Puts and will move to 115% next week based on the dates or is the sp cash can rally to 6709 next week Best of trades WAVETIMER
SPX500 Trading Strategy Explained: From Entry to Exit⚡ SPX500 “STANDARD & POOR” Indices Market Wealth Strategy Map ⚡
(Swing / Day Trade Plan – Thief OG Style)
🧭 Plan
📈 Bias: Bullish confirmed with 30m LSMA pullback + 0.786 Fibonacci-based MA confluence.
💡 Entry Approach (Thief Layering Strategy™):
Instead of one-shot entry, I place multiple buy-limit layers to average into strength. Example setup:
Buy limit: 6600
Buy limit: 6620
Buy limit: 6640
👉 You can extend or adjust the layering based on your own strategy.
🎯 Stop Loss (SL)
This is my Thief SL @6560.
⚠️ Note to Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s): This SL is not a recommendation. Use your own judgment — protect your loot at your own risk.
💰 Target (TP)
📌 6750 — sitting at strong resistance + overbought zone + possible bull-trap.
⚠️ Again, OG’s — this is not financial advice. Take profit when it fits your plan. Secure the bag, then enjoy the loot!
🔍 Related Pairs to Watch
Keep an eye on these correlated assets to confirm the SPX500’s move:
NASDAQ:NDX (Nasdaq 100): Tech-heavy index with strong correlation to SPX500. If tech stocks are pumping, it’s a bullish signal for our trade. 📊
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index): A weaker dollar often boosts equities. Watch for inverse correlation—DXY dropping could mean SPX500 is ready to fly! 🚀
TVC:VIX (Volatility Index): Low VIX levels signal market calm, supporting our bullish setup. A spike in VIX could warn of trouble, so stay sharp! ⚡
Key Correlation Insight: SPX500 often moves in tandem with NASDAQ:NDX due to shared tech giants (think Apple, Microsoft). If NASDAQ:NDX is rallying, it’s a tailwind for our trade. Conversely, a rising TVC:DXY or TVC:VIX could signal caution.
📝 Thief Note
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s):
This map is my personal swing/day trade playbook — not a fixed recommendation. Layer entries, cut losers fast, and loot when you can. Market moves are wild; manage risk like a true OG.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-style trading strategy shared just for fun & educational vibes. Not financial advice. DYOR & trade responsibly.
"US500 BREAKOUT – TIME TO LOAD LIMIT ORDERS FOR THE PUMP?"🔥🦹♂️ "SPX500 BANK HEIST – LAYERED BULL RAID IN PROGRESS!" 💰📈
(Thief Trader’s Multi-Limit Order Bullish Ambush – No Weak Hands Allowed)
📍 ASSET: US500 / SPX500 (S&P 500 INDEX)
🎯 HEIST PLAN: BULLISH BREAKOUT 6500.00
💣 ENTRY: ANY PRICE LEVEL (Thieves use Layered Limit Orders – adapt like a pro!)
🔫 SAMPLE LAYERS: (Scale in like a boss!)
BUY LIMIT LAYER 1: 6475.00
BUY LIMIT LAYER 2: 6460.00
BUY LIMIT LAYER 3: 6440.00
(Add more layers if needed – flexibility is key!)
🛑 STOP LOSS: 6400.00 (Thief’s Emergency Exit – adjust based on your risk!)
🎯 TARGET: 6600.00 (First profit zone – trail or take gains!)
🦹♂️ THIEF TRADER’S MASTER PLAN:
"We don’t ask for permission – we take profits."
🔹 ENTRY TACTICS:
Use multiple limit orders (LAYERED STRATEGY) – like planting timed explosives at key levels.
No panic entries – thieves strike with precision, not emotion.
DCA if needed – but keep bullets for the real move.
🔹 STOP LOSS RULES:
6400 = Danger Zone – if price breaks, abort mission & regroup.
SL too tight? You’ll get stopped out by market noise. SL too wide? You’ll bleed. Find balance.
🔹 TAKE PROFIT STRATEGY:
First TP @ 6600 – secure partial profits.
Let runners ride with trailing stop – or full exit if momentum fades.
🚨 THIEF’S GOLDEN RULES:
✅ Only LONG – no revenge shorts, no greed traps.
✅ Trade in SILENCE – avoid high-impact news (CPI, NFP, Fed).
✅ Risk management = Survival – don’t blow your account on one play.
✅ BOOST & SHARE – if this plan helps, spread the word!
📢 FINAL WARNING:
"This is not financial advice – it’s a thief’s blueprint.
Plan your escape before entry. Market heists require discipline."
💬 COMMENT "ROBBING SPX" if you’re in!
🔥 LIKE & BOOST if you ride with the Thief Trader crew!
🦹♂️ THIEF TRADER OUT.
💸 STEAL SMART. GET RICH. REPEAT.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 12, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the previous trading session, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a substantial upward movement, reaching and completing the Outer Index Rally 6543, and it is striding towards our current designated target: Outer Index Rally 6620, as detailed in the prior S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis.
It is critical to recognize that upon reaching this momentous target, the resulting price action is anticipated to initiate a significant pullback targeting the Mean Support level of 6485. This pullback is likely to facilitate a considerable rebound, allowing for a subsequent retest of the Outer Index Rally level of 6620.
New all-time high in global financial liquidity1) The Fed has unveiled its new monetary policy trajectory, here are the key takeaways:
- Federal funds rate cycle through the end of 2025: there should be a total of 3 rate cuts by year-end.
- Update of macroeconomic projections: The Fed acknowledges the slowdown in the labor market and still expects inflation to normalize during 2026, allowing time to absorb the impact of tariffs.
- Balance of power among the 12 voting FOMC members: 11 out of 12 voted for a 0.25% rate cut, with only Stephen Miran voting for a jumbo Fed cut.
In the end, Jerome Powell’s Fed has thus enacted a genuine monetary pivot to account for the labor market slowdown, while remaining cautious about the upcoming normalization of inflation. The more accommodative monetary trajectory announced should provide support for risk assets in the stock market, but upcoming U.S. employment and inflation updates will still have a strong impact.
2) Global liquidity hits a new all-time high, a supportive factor for risk assets
Correlation studies show that risk assets in the stock market are highly correlated with the trend in global liquidity, i.e., the sum of the money supplies of the world’s major economies. Simply put, when the underlying trend of global liquidity is bullish, the S&P 500 and bitcoin prices also follow a bullish trend, and vice versa.
There are several ways to represent a country’s money supply, and the M2 monetary aggregate is recognized as the best measure of available liquidity within a state. Global M2 liquidity is calculated by aggregating the money supplies of major economies, notably the United States and China, converted into U.S. dollars (USD). The dollar’s evolution directly influences this measure: a strong dollar reduces global M2 in USD terms, while a weak dollar increases it, affecting capital flows and global financial conditions.
While global M2 liquidity is decisive, the net credit capacity within the financial system also plays a major role. When this is added to global M2, you get global liquidity — and this has just reached a new all-time high, as shown in the chart attached to this article.
This should therefore be a supportive factor for the stock market through year-end.
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Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 6600.Colleagues, the main idea is still the upward movement in the impulse of the middle wave “5”.
Wave “4” is likely to take place, because the bulls need to gain strength to update the local maximum of 6512.
The most important thing here is that the target of 6600 is a round number, which is quite attractive for buyers and limit sellers.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P500 | 100 year bullish channel | GTradingMethodHello Traders - Happy Monday!
I thought this was a very interesting perspective on S&P500.
What they don’t want you to see... 👀
The S&P has been moving inside a bullish channel for nearly 100 years (since 1925).
Right now, price is breaking out of that channel but is it fakeout?
If it’s a fakeout, the implications are huge: we could be looking at a 70% drop back to the bottom of the channel.
⚠️ Chart is on the monthly timeframe with a logarithmic scale.
What do you think — breakout or fakeout? Very keen to hear all your thoughts
#TradingLife
Good time to get out of the MARKET (Too Heated)The market has never been this expensive and retailers are being the exit liquidity for whales / institutions. Almost like many people are just sitting a sipping away on an active volcano. The market could be jumping for a few days, but a rate cut confirms that the market is weak and needs a boost / help. Unfortunately, it's too little too late. Most macros show a clear sign of stress, which is not being reflected in the market (for now). Don't get too complacent...the VIX will spike at astronomical levels when the hammer falls. Best of luck!
Crack-Up BOOM and BUSTHey everyone, Wave-Tech here. Join me on a historic journey as I reconstruct the Grand Super Cycle while diving into the historic and captivating world of Elliott Wave Theory!
This was to have been my maiden video cast—it didn't turn out as well as I hoped. Time got away from me, and the video ended abruptly before I could finish.
Rather than redoing it, I decided to keep the first and most authentic take intact for better or worse.
I made it private so that I could review it before publishing; however, I let too much time pass and was unable to change the setting back to public from private .
You can view the private video HERE :
The accompanying text is beneath the chart below:
In the simplest terms, Elliott Wave Theory is a measure of market psychology and sentiment coupled with Fibonnaci ratios designed to create a structural framework for determining at what stage of advance or decline a given market is in.
The basic premise for inherent advance and progress is three steps forward (impulse waves 1, 3, and 5) and two steps back (corrective waves 2 and 4).
According to Elliott, there are 9 degrees of trend, all of which are fractal in nature. The largest is the Grand Super Cycle, and the smallest is the Sub-Minuette.
Today, we’re exploring a yearly bar chart of the S&P, which covers trends at the Super Cycle and Cycle degree, revealing the pending culmination of a Grand Super Cycle—a colossal trend spanning centuries.
Buckle up as we unravel the rhythms of the stock market's epic ride!
The SUPER CYCLE:
Let’s start with the big picture: five waves of advance at the Super Cycle degree.
According to Ralph Nelson Elliott, with the sole exception of the GRAND SUPER CYCLE, the Super Cycle is the largest of all trends, a monumental set of impulsive and corrective waves that will set the tone and punctuate Grand Super Cycle terminals for Centuries to come—or at least through the fall of Empires or Civilizations.
Each of these waves tells a story of growth, correction, and renewal. The current Grand Super Cycle has been shaping markets and Nations for over a century. We can see this Grand Super Cycle unfolding in waves of Super Cycle dimension.
WAVE COUNTS:
The chart highlights five waves at Super Cycle degree: the first lasted 52 years with a gain of more than 1000%, the third stretched 68 years with a staggering 33,336% gain, and the fourth, a shorter 9-year span, saw a -57.06% loss, which marked the GFC low in 2009.
We are currently in the fifth Super Cycle wave, which is still unfolding and could mark the end of this Grand Super Cycle at any moment.
In contrast, the post-GFC "everything bubble" Crack-Up BOOM can persist to the upper trend channel boundaries noted near 18k and 35k.
Zooming in, we encounter the fractal Cycle degree waves comprising Super Cycle (III). Take Cycle Wave III and Cycle V, both 26 years long, delivering gains of 1,191% and 2,313% respectively.
And from the Super Cycle wave (IV) low in 2009, we are 16 years into Super Cycle Wave V, with an impressive 872% gain as of September 5, 2025.
This current wave could easily extend further, but its length is sufficient to suggest we may be nearing a pivotal turning point that might end the Grand Super Cycle with a sufficient black swan trigger.
The Fourth Turning:
Now, let’s touch briefly on the 85-year cycle, a rhythm that syncs beautifully with the concept of the "fourth turning"—a period of crisis and transformation.
The last one kicked off in 1945, post-World War II, ushering in the rules-based order that America and the West thrived in—an order that is arguably destined to end by 2030 if it hasn't already. This turning cycle hints at a historic shift on the horizon, or one that is currently already underway.
THE RSI:
Glance at the lower pane of the chart, where the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a tale of caution. Since 1955, we’ve endured 16 long years of multiple bearish divergences—times when the market’s price and momentum didn’t align, signaling trouble ahead.
I like to call this the bearish divergences that cried wolf for nearly a generation! Note that it wasn't until the RSI closed beneath the mid-line that the sell-off into the 1974 low registered an oversold reading.
We saw the RSI fail again upon the new highs in 1993-94 following the highs in 1987.
1995 kicked off the infamous five years of irrational exuberance, which led to the tech bubble peak and subsequent crash into the 2002 low.
Not to be outdone by the 2000 blow-off top, the 2002 low ushered in yet another five years of irrational exuberance, culminating right in time for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This time, the RSI finally got it right on the first go round.
Currently, against the highs printed in 2021, the V-shaped snap-back rally following the mini bear market of 2022, the move to new highs in 2024 has flagged a bona fide bearish divergence. It will be interesting to see how the RSI looks after the close of 2025.
These divergences are like red flags, whispering that the party might not last forever, even though it may.
Price Targets:
So, where might this Super Cycle Wave V take us in terms of price? Let’s apply a Fibonacci projection—specifically, where Wave V equals 4.236 of Wave IV.
Doing the math, from the Wave IV base at 666.79, we’re looking at a target of around 7,226-7,233 on the S&P 500.
That’s only about 10% upside from recent highs—not quite the blow-off top of 18K or 35K, but a target to approach with eyes wide open.
Now, let’s consider a sobering scenario:
If Super Cycle Wave V ends here, or north of 7K, signaling the close of Grand Super Cycle ONE, history might repeat itself with a bear market akin to 1929’s four-year plunge.
An 86% decline could drop the S&P to around 917—still well above the Wave IV low of 666.79, another common target, but a stark reminder of the cycles’ power.
In Closing:
Thank you all for listening and reading if you've gotten this far. This was my first video. I got blindsided and cut off by the time constraint, so I apologize for the abrupt ending.
The market’s cycles and waves are a dance of numbers and human spirit, and we’ve only scratched the surface of their grandeur and implications.
Stay curious, stay informed, and keep your life vests on while riding these waves, okay!
S&P500 Key Trading levels Optimism on US-China relations drove markets higher after Trump’s positive Madrid meeting comments and Treasury Sec. Bessent’s note on a TikTok deal framework.
The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index (+0.87%) outperformed as US-listed Chinese firms rallied.
This lifted global equities: S&P 500 +0.47% (new ATH), Stoxx 600 +0.42%, both near record highs.
Tech led gains: NASDAQ +0.94%, Magnificent 7 +1.95%. Alphabet hit $3trn valuation, Tesla +3.56% on Musk’s share purchase. Nvidia slipped (-0.04%) on China antitrust news.
Despite broad weakness under the surface, the S&P 500 is now +12.47% YTD and has risen in 6 of the past 7 weeks—its strongest stretch in 2025.
Conclusion for S&P 500 today:
With sentiment anchored by trade optimism and tech leadership, momentum remains upward, but concentration in a few mega-cap names alongside weaker breadth suggests potential for near-term consolidation even as the broader index holds bullish bias.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6640
Resistance Level 2: 6660
Resistance Level 3: 6680
Support Level 1: 6575
Support Level 2: 6550
Support Level 3: 6530
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Major S&P 500 - Bearish Signals On 09/19/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) had two major bearish Signals.
Since March of 2000 all significant SPX peaks occurred with a rising VIX. On 09/19/25 the VIX made its second higher bottom since 08/28/25.
Daily RSI has reached the overbought zone and has a bearish divergence.
A multi – week decline could begin soon.
US500Success in forex and stocks comes from a combination of knowledge, discipline, and patience. Understanding market trends, economic factors, and company
fundamentals is crucial, but equally important is controlling emotions and sticking to a well-planned strategy. Continuous learning, adapting to changing conditions, and managing risk wisely can turn opportunities into consistent growth over time.
Consistency, not luck, separates successful traders from the rest.
Melt-Up into FOMC - Post FED Expect CorrectionMore all-time highs
I shouldn't be upset (and I'm really not as the portfolio continues to make new YTD highs)
But technically, it is extremely frustrating to see nothing more than slow grind higher after slwo grind higher on the indexes - and also see blowout moves on individual stocks (ORCL, GOOGL, AVGO for example)
Rising Wedge still hasn't rolled over, resistance at 6500 hasn't been a wall yet
50 Day Moving Average is now over 90 bars from price. I could see price action melting up
into a crescendo or peak pre, during, or post FOMC and then fading lower after to find
some technical levels I've been eyeing for weeks
Enjoy the melt-up, just be ready for some action and volatility in the indexes, gold, silver,
bitcoin, and the bond/yield markets
I won't complain about YTD highs, but it's the caution ahead that I don't want to be
surprised by in the coming weeks
Plan accordingly - I'll continue to grind through it the best and safest way I know how
Thanks for watching!!!