ASG trade ideas
Trade tragedy How to trade in recession is very skill full job some thing extra and out of the way is very important
GENERALI ASSFor having a better understading of what is happening on this stock about my last idea, on the Montly chart we see a clear break of structure and a retest of it after testing an important trendline(formed in Oct 07).The price has been bouncing over the last 12 years and now finally we see a strong candle formed in March this year breaking all structure and showing us bullish pressure. We can expect more bullish continuation the next months if price manage to break this trendline. Important monitoring price action in lower timeframes.
LONG GENERALI ASSGood opportunity to go long. Bullish pressure. I expect the break of the trendline and the continuation higher.
1:3 risk to reward
Short "G"Company Profile
Assicurazioni Generali S.P.A. is an insurance company based in Italy (Trieste) but operating worldwide: it’s the leader in its sector not only in Italy but also in other countries like Germany and France. It offers a broad range of insurance services like property and casualty insurance, insurance for companies and life insurance. The firm operates in the financial sector, in particular in the insurance specialty industry.
Signals
Position: Short Target Price: $17.91
Entry Price: $18.375 Stop loss: $18.66
Indicators
MACD line is below the signal line meaning we are in a bearish momentum
KELTNER CHANNEL signals a bearish momentum with the price level falling from the upper bound to the middle of the channel
The WILLIAM %R can’t go back to-20% without falling back
Analysis
If we connect the two lows of the price level we find a positively-sloped segment, while if we connect the corresponding points on the MACD line the slope of the segment is negative. This is a signal that a reversal is happening, so we expect to go from an uptrend, which is the main trend, to a downtrend . There is a trending support line obtained connecting the lows, and here is where we expect the retracement to stop so we set the target profit slightly above it. Also the William %R is pointing out a difficulty in continuing the main trend, because it was not able to cut the -20% threshold and fell down. Finally, we can observe how the price level has been hitting many times the higher band Keltner channel, while the last candlestick is significantly below the higher band, signaling the bullish momentum has ended.
Conclusion
The stock is experiencing a bearish momentum, so a short position is suggested but still taking into consideration that the main trend is an uptrend, so the profit target is set at the lower bound of the Keltner channel, close to the support trending line.
No financial advice.
Long GeneraliAll my short position is closed.
I go long from 14.03-14.15.
I will update my first target in the following days
Long Generali :)The potentiality target for this move up is 18.53. To reach this target price can find some support/resistance level around the line in the Pitchfork tool.
Let's see how will play.
Play the referendum and the break above MA200: Buy.IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS?
The consensus is lukewarm: Mild BUY with 10% target upside
But the yield (up) and market (up) environments have been improving
The Italian referendum is unlikely to impact materially this global insurer
Valuation remains compelling at <80% of book value
IMPROVING TECHNICALS
Clear support line formed since the summer - Current level 11.50
Yesterday attempted to break main resistance by closing > 12.20
Yesterday also closed above MA200 at 12.00 - Another positive sign
Looks slightly over-extended on short/mid term as it is trading at the hi bollinger band
LONG-TERM LONG
Stock price reference 12.16 (now)
Go long here with 13.00 and then 14.00 (+15%) targets
Stop-loss at 11.25 (-7.5%), just below the 11.50 support
RR 2x
Referendum fears: Trade half size before Sunday and another half after Sunday.
MORE CAUTIOUS INVESTORS: USE PUT OPTIONS
Selling 16dec16 Eur 11.50 puts brings in 0.21/share (yield 1.7% in 14 days or 44.45% per annum)
Selling 20jan17 Eur 11.50 puts brings in 0.37/share (yield 3.04% in 49 days or 22.62% per annum)
