NASDAQ at Record Highs after US CPI report, but can it last?In today’s video, we break down the major market moves triggered by the July US CPI report. Headline CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month—right in line with expectations and a slowdown from the previous month. Year-over-year, headline inflation came in at 2.7%, just under the 2.8% forecast, while Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (matching forecasts) but was a bit hotter at 3.1% YoY (vs. 3.0% expected).
These “not as bad as feared” inflation numbers kept hopes alive for a September Fed rate cut, pushing the odds of a cut to 96%. Markets responded strongly: the NASDAQ 100 closed at a record high, just shy of the 24K handle, with broad gains in tech and communication stocks, as traders bet on a more dovish Fed.
We also cover the technical setup for the NASDAQ 100 and key risk factors heading into the second part of August.
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NDQ trade ideas
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?US100 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 23,289.88
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 22,983.03
Why we like it:
There is a multi-swing low support.
Take profit: 23,729.56
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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NASDAQ Index Analysis (US100 / NASDAQ)At today’s market open, the NASDAQ index started to decline and is currently heading to test the key support level at 23,000.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks below 23,000 and holds, it is likely to move lower towards the next support level at 22,700.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
If the price rebounds and breaks above 23,260, holding above it may support further upside toward 23,350.
Nas100 Trade Set Up Sep 4 2025FX:NAS100
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price has made HH/HL with a big gap in between. It had came up and swept PDH in london session with a close below so what i want to see is either a sweep of SSL, close above, followed by 1m IFVG to go higher or a close below SSL levels to go lower towards HL/PDL
US100 Trading Plan ¦ Layering Strategy + Macro Sentiment Drivers🚀 NASDAQ100 / US100 Index – Thief Money Heist Plan 🎭
📌 Plan: Bullish Swing / Scalping Setup
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), here’s the heist-style breakdown for US100 🔑:
🏴☠️ Entry Style (Thief Layering Strategy)
Using layered limit orders for flexibility & precision:
• 23200.0
• 23250.0
• 23300.0
• 23350.0
(You may increase limit layers based on your strategy & risk appetite)
📉 Moving Average Pullback Entry Plan
• Buy entries on pullbacks to the Fibo level 382 Triangular Moving average zone.
• Look for bullish candles confirming the bounce from these MAs.
• This offers better risk-to-reward by catching momentum on retracements instead of chasing highs.
❓ Why This Works?
• Moving averages often act as dynamic support/resistance in trending markets.
• Institutional traders & algos track them heavily, making them high-probability zones.
• Combining with layering entries = higher flexibility + reduced risk of mistimed single entry.
🛡️ Stop Loss (Protect the Vault)
• Thief SL: @23000.0
• Reminder: Adjust your SL based on your own strategy & risk tolerance.
🎯 Target (Escape Zone)
• Overbought + Trap Zone ahead!
• Escape target: @23750.0
• Note: Don’t rely only on my TP — secure profits at your own pace and risk.
📊 US100 Index CFD Real-Time Data Sep 03
📈 Daily Change: +133.47 (+0.57%)
📅 Monthly Performance: +0.76%
📆 Yearly Performance: +23.48%
😰😊 Fear & Greed Index
📊 Current Reading: 53/100 (Neutral)
🧐 Interpretation: Market sentiment is balanced, showing neither extreme fear nor greed. Investors are cautious but not panicked.
🧠 Retail vs. Institutional Sentiment
👥 Retail Traders: Moderately bullish (55% Long, 45% Short)
🏦 Institutional Traders: Slightly cautious (50% Long, 50% Short)
🔑 Key Drivers: Mixed signals from manufacturing data and upcoming labor market reports.
📉📈 Fundamental & Macro Score
📊 Macro Score: 6/10
Manufacturing PMI (48.7) still in contraction but improving.
Labor market data (JOLTS) awaited for clarity.
⚡ Volatility Score: 5/10 (Moderate)
VIX near average levels, indicating stable expectations.
💧 Liquidity Score: 7/10
Strong volume and breadth in large-cap tech stocks.
🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook
✅ Bullish (Long): 60%
Supported by strong yearly gains and resilience in big tech.
⚠️ Bearish (Short): 40%
Concerns over manufacturing contraction and inflation pressures.
💡 Key Takeaways
📈 US100 is trending mildly positive today (+0.57%).
😐 Sentiment is neutral—no extreme fear or greed.
📊 Macro data hints at cautious optimism but watch for upcoming labor reports.
🐂 Overall bias leans slightly bullish for long-term holders.
📊 Related Pairs to Watch
FOREXCOM:SPX500
TVC:DJI
TVC:VIX
NASDAQ:NDX
FX:USDOLLAR
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#NASDAQ100 #US100 #NDX #SPX500 #DJI #TradingView #SwingTrade #ScalpTrading #LayeringStrategy #MarketAnalysis
NASDAQ - Bullish Flow into Highs
Bias: Bullish
HTF (4H Overview):
From the bird’s-eye view, structure remains bullish. Liquidity is being targeted across the 30M–4H multi-timeframe play, with strong bullish intent confirmed by volume printing to the upside.
LTF (30M / 5M Confirmation):
A proper CHoCH has been established. Once the trend shift occurs, we wait for the pullback before attending longs.
Entry Plan:
Look for entry after the courtyard liquidity is collected and demand is mitigated (slash zone).
Targets:
Initial: 5M highs
Extended: 30M highs, depending on market delivery.
Mindset Note:
Patience—let liquidity do its job before striking.
key levels for the nqIf the nq breaks 23362 we have enough information to wait for a shakeout and then enter. if it breaks 23210.7 we got to wait for a retracement and then a shakeout to sell. But, be aware that for sales the target should be more aggressive which means to cover on 23k, and just in case, we can leave a small portion of the position open but cover more than 70% because it might be the macro shakeout.
Nas100: Trading Levels in FocusSupply Zones (Red)
23,853 - 23,873
A strong supply zone near recent highs. Sellers are expected to defend aggressively here, making it a potential rejection area. A confirmed breakout and retest, however, could open the path toward new highs.
23,742 – 23,759
This zone reflects last week’s high-volume rejection. Acts as an intraday decision area: sharp rejections can trigger short setups, while a clean break and hold above would strengthen bullish momentum.
Demand Zones (Green)
23,553 – 23,573
A fresh demand zone aligned with recent breakout structure. Buyers may attempt to defend here for continuation longs. If broken, the zone flips into resistance, adding downside pressure.
23,473 – 23,500
Well-tested support area with prior absorption. Strong bounce potential, but multiple retests increase the risk of a breakdown. A failure here would likely accelerate bearish momentum.
Overall Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish on Fragile Ground
At its core, the market is cautiously optimistic right now. Positive momentum from Big Tech and expectations of looser monetary policy are fueling short-term upside potential. At the same time, consolidation and uncertainty around macro data keep sentiment restrained. Momentum is present but it relies on breakout moves holding.
NQ Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis:
1- We know that the FED opened the door for a rate cut in September (Next week). The FED gave priority to address Employment Mandate issue and considered the higher inflation data as one time shot.
2- Hence, the Inflation (the second FED mandate) the most relevant data this week with both PPI and CPI to validate the FED view of one time shot. Another higher inflation will destroy this narrative and the FED might revise the way forward.
The story is simple: Higher Inflation data will send NQ down and vice-versa for inline and softer inflation.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
The weekly close expresses really the incertitude regarding the direction. No clear direction; both direction are open; all will depend on inflation data.
Daily TF:
The daily close was bearish. NFP data provided an inline inflation data but a very negative employment data. As mentioned, bad data data is bad for NQ and vice-versa.
From daily perspective, price might retest Friday high or just NFP low (magenta dotted line) and continue down towards TP1, TP2 and TP3 particularly if Inflation data comes strong.
H4 TF:
H4 provided a break down. Inline with daily analysis, the least resistance is that price continues down after a short retrace up.
GL Everyone!
US100 SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 23,632.7
Target Level: 23,384.3
Stop Loss: 24,004.0
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
NAS100 OUTLOOOKPrice is within August Range, therefore it can either take the buy side liquidity/sell side liquidity before it can actually give us a significant move.
Within this August's Range, it started taking out previous weekly Buy side liquidity, therefore the price is expected to go to the relevant equal lows
NAS100 At Major Resistance - Breakout or Reversal?NAS100 Technical Analysis: 🚀 At Major Resistance - Breakout or Reversal? 📉
Asset: NAS100 (NASDAQ 100 CFD)
Analysis Date: September 5, 2025
Current Closing Price: 23,639.8 (as of 12:59 AM UTC+4)
Timeframes Analyzed: 1H, 4H, D, W
Executive Summary & Market Outlook 🧐
The NAS100 is at a critical technical juncture, testing a formidable resistance zone between 23,600 and 23,800. 📊 The index is in a clear long-term bullish trend but shows signs of short-term exhaustion after a powerful rally. This is a classic "make-or-break" level. A decisive breakout above 23,800 could ignite a new leg up towards 24,500, while a rejection here may trigger a significant corrective pullback towards 22,800. This analysis provides a roadmap for both intraday traders 🎯 and swing traders 📈.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis 🔍
1. Trend Analysis (Daily & 4-Hour Chart):
Primary Trend: 🟢 Bullish. Price is above all major Daily Moving Averages (200, 100, 50 EMA), which are aligned bullishly.
Short-Term Trend: 🟡 Bullish but Overextended. The rally has been near-vertical, suggesting the market is ripe for a pause or pullback.
2. Key Chart Patterns & Theories:
Resistance Confluence Zone 🧱: The current price is battling a massive resistance cluster. This zone includes:
A prior major swing high (Price Action Resistance).
The 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels from the last significant correction.
A potential Bullish Cypher pattern's Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).
Elliott Wave Theory 🌊: The rally from the last major low is best counted as a powerful Impulse Wave. We are likely in the final stages of Wave 5 or a complex Wave 3 extension. This implies that while the trend is up, a larger Wave (4) correction is increasingly probable. Typical retracement targets for a Wave 4 are the 38.2% Fib level near 22,800.
Ichimoku Cloud (H4/D1) ☁️: Price is trading high above the Cloud on daily charts, confirming the strong bullish trend. The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is also well above price, indicating sustained buying pressure. However, such extreme extensions often precede consolidation.
Gann Theory ⏳: The 23,600-23,800 area represents a key mathematical resistance zone. A daily close above this could open the path to the next Gann angle target.
3. Critical Support & Resistance Levels:
Resistance (R1): 23,800 - 24,000 (Key Psychological & Technical Ceiling) 🚨
Resistance (R2): 24,500 (Projected Target)
Current Closing Price: ~23,640
Support (S1): 23,200 - 23,400 (Immediate Support & 21-period EMA) ✅
Support (S2): 22,800 - 23,000 (Major Support - 38.2% Fib & Prior Breakout Zone) 🛡️
Support (S3): 22,200 (200-Day EMA & 50% Fib)
4. Indicator Consensus:
RSI (14-period on 4H/D): Reading is above 70 on both timeframes, signaling severely overbought conditions. 📛 This is a warning against chasing longs at these highs. A bearish divergence is forming on the 4H chart, hinting at weakening momentum.
Bollinger Bands (4H) 📏: Price is consistently riding the upper band, a sign of a strong trend. However, a move back towards the middle band (20-period SMA) is a common next step after such extensions.
Moving Averages: The bullish alignment (EMA8 > EMA21 > EMA50) is intact. The EMA 21 on the 4H chart (~23,400) is critical immediate support.
Volume & VWAP: Volume has been declining on the most recent push higher, a potential bearish divergence 📉 suggesting a lack of conviction at these highs.
Trading Strategy & Forecast 🎯
A. Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 1H Charts):
Bearish Scenario (Rejection Play) ⬇️: This is the preferred setup given overbought conditions. Look for bearish reversal candlestick patterns (e.g., Bearish Engulfing, Evening Star 🌟) at or near the 23,800 resistance.
Entry: On confirmation of rejection.
Stop Loss: Tight, above 23,850.
Target: 23,400 (TP1), 23,200 (TP2).
Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play) ⬆️: If buyers overpower and we get a strong 1H close above 23,850, a momentum long could be viable.
Entry: On a small pullback to ~23,780 (re-test as support) or on the breakout.
Stop Loss: Below 23,650.
Target: 24,200 (TP1), 24,500 (TP2).
B. Swing Trading Strategy (4H - D Charts):
Strategy: WAIT FOR A PULLBACK. The risk/reward for new long entries at this resistance is poor. 🚫 The optimal strategy is to wait for a healthy correction to key support zones to add long positions.
Ideal Long Zones: 23,200 (shallow pullback) or 22,800 (deeper correction). ✅
Bearish Risk: A daily close below 22,800 would signal a much deeper correction is likely underway, potentially targeting 22,200.
Risk Management & Conclusion ⚠️
Key Risk Events: High-impact US economic data (e.g., NFP, CPI) and Fed policy announcements are paramount. 🔥 Any hawkish surprises could be the catalyst for a sharp tech-led selloff.
Position Sizing: The potential for increased volatility demands conservative risk management. Never risk more than 1-2% of your account on a single trade.
Conclusion: The NAS100 is bullish but exhausted. 🥴 The current resistance zone is a high-risk area for new longs and a high-probability area for a pullback. 🎯 Swing traders should be patient for a better entry. Intraday traders can play the range between 23,200 and 23,800 until a decisive break occurs. The overall trend remains up, but a period of consolidation or correction is the most probable outcome in the near term.
Overall Bias: 🟢 Bullish above 22,800 | 🟡 Neutral/Bearish below 23,200
For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade)
I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors.
Sincerely,
Shunya.Trade
Website: shunya dot trade
Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.