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US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield

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US02Y trade ideas

Bond markets pricing in a possible recessionary scenarioSpread between US 2 year yield and Fed Funds Rate is one of the key indidcators to watch out for the state of the economy. Fed Funds Rate is an overnight rate. Historically, before any recessionary scenarios the spread was seen moving to negative territory, during Middle East Crisis in 1989/1990, dotcom crisis in 2000/2001 and Credit crisis in 2008. Currently, the spread is at -1.67%, second lowest in history only to 2008 Credit crisis which was at -1.76%. This leads to a strong conclusion that the interest rate markets are possibly pricing in a recessionary scenario. Interesting times ahead...
TVC:US02Y
by scorpiomanoj
2
$US02Y $US10Y $GLD $IVOL $TLT - The Chart tells the futureHere we have a historical chart showing what will likely be obvious in 2 quarters. The chart bats 100% on the issue but not on the resolution. As you can see with LTCM and the Bhat crisis in the late 90s. This chart is great for signaling when to risk-off, it does not signal risk on, for that I use the CBOE:BXY . The way I play the waiting game after going risk off is exposure to AMEX:IVOL NASDAQ:IEF AMEX:GLD NASDAQ:TLT AMEX:UUP Cheers,
TVC:US02YLong
by rwoods187
*SMC* DXY correlated with US02Y Bonds As we can see on the daily tf, DXY has created Relative Equal High at 105.459 which translate to this level being a liquidity pool. We are likely to see 105.459 being taken out put where can it go? As we can see, above 105.459, the closer PDArray is the OrderBlock (made the 30 Apr) which confluate with the 75% of the Dealing Range and another buyside liquidity pool at 105.742. I dont expect DXY to trade above the mean threshold of the OrderBlock and if it touched I expect a strong reaction to the downside. Concerning the 02 year Bonds , the body has respected the OrderBlock (30 Apr) creating relative equal low which has been taken out (june 12). There is a ''crack'' in correlation right now between the DXY and the major Bonds of the US which leads me to think that there is a higher probability for the DXY to follow the Bound and drop lower. Fundamentally, Powell has been pointing out the progress that has been made (which could eventually lead to a cut of rates) However, the ''Dot Plot' ' surprised the market of a likely to only 1 cut this year instead of 2-3 rate cut priced-in, which could be the reason why DXY has been going higher the last couple of days.
TVC:US02Y
by ezod
2
Yields are still selling off after yesterday's dropLet's see how the TVC:VIX does over the next few days/weeks. Still think it eventually breaks its major support level, at least temporarily. The 2Yr and 10Yr are crashing and following yesterdays drop. TVC:TNX #interestrates, as we said, will likely be cut, even if a little. They will most likely be raised again next year. Not political... Anyway, since we have stated COUNTLESS times. They CANNOT lower rates but MUST lower them.
TVC:US02YShort
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
We have a Grey Rhino here - Markets are driven by ignoranceThe US long-term bonds have hit new lows, the yield curve has been inverted for two years now, and inflation remains uncertain, meaning interest rates may not ease at all. Yet, stock markets are reaching new highs. We have a "grey rhino" in this market. A grey rhino is a large and visible animal that cannot be ignored. Try not to get too close to them because when they start charging, we can never outrun them. In this market context, we face a big, obvious problem that investors completely ignore until it becomes a crisis. It's different from a "black swan," which is a rare and unpredictable event. When we recognize that there are problems many do not understand, we have already won half the battle. U.S. Treasury Bonds Futures & Options Ticker: ZB Minimum fluctuation: 1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US02YShort
by konhow
5
US two-year yields climbed four basis points to 4.87%.The latest minutes had more hawkish undertones than the market was expecting. "Participants at the meeting assessed it would take longer than previously anticipated to gain greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably to 2%." "Various participants mentioned willingness to tighten policy further should risks to outlook materialize and make such action appropriate." Though it largely repeated rhetoric used by FOMC officials after the latest policy meeting, US stocks still weakened while the dollar and Government bond yields strengthened It is unlikely to make a material difference to the long term outlook for US policy, as is reflected by little change in US interest rate futures. The Hawkish undertones can be justified given the lack of the April CPI data before the minutes were recorded. The stock market fell during regular trading hours as the most recent Federal Reserve minutes indicated that officials are not in a hurry to lower interest rates. After fighting for direction for most of the session, the S&P 500 fell sharply as several Fed officials expressed concern about the extent to which policy is constraining the economy - but the minutes also indicated policy "was regarded as restrictive. Treasuries were under pressure, with shorter maturities underperforming. US two-year yields climbed four basis points to 4.87%. The dollar rose, weakening the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.
TVC:US02YShort
by Adipong