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S&P 500 Bear Market in 2026The Stock market is going to send Crypto into a Bear market in 2026. It just broke it's weekly cycle count and it's currently painting a bullish divergence. This means only one thing - we are going into a blow-off top within the next 2 months. We are going to top above 7000 area, and in case we don't have a proper retracement into the Weekly Cycle low within November, we are going to make a blow-off top in December/January. 2026 Year will be profit taking year and the stock market is expected to retrace 20%, while Bitcoin will go down by more than 50%. It's the last leg of the bull and it's time to get allocated in the market.
TVC:SPXShort
by TheStrategyMaster
Major Macroeconomic Data Delayed Due to the US govt ShutdownThe recent shutdown of the U.S. government has triggered a domino effect on the release of key macroeconomic indicators. Due to the temporary closure of several federal agencies — notably the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — a series of crucial statistics have been delayed, making it more difficult to assess the real-time economic situation of the United States. A Severely Disrupted Economic Calendar From early October, several major releases were postponed. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for October 3 was the first casualty and the CPI and PPI inflation indicators on October 15 and 16. These consecutive delays have disoriented financial markets, depriving them of the statistical benchmarks essential to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s decisions. As a result, visibility on inflation, employment, and consumption trends has been significantly reduced, fueling volatility in U.S. equity markets. The Fed in the Dark This disrupted schedule complicates the Fed’s task ahead of its October 29 monetary policy decision, followed by the PCE inflation release on October 31. Without fresh data, FOMC members will have to rely on partial or outdated information to decide on the path of interest rates. This lack of reliable data could lead the institution to adopt a more cautious stance, postponing any major adjustment to its monetary policy. Cascading Effects in the Coming Months — Unless the Shutdown Ends in October The November 7 NFP report and Supreme Court hearings on tariff policies, scheduled for the same week, may also be affected if the shutdown continues. Similarly, November inflation data (CPI, PPI, and PCE) could face further delays, undermining the accuracy of economic forecasts for year-end. Finally, the December releases — notably the December 5 NFP report and the December 10 Fed meeting — could mark a return to calendar normality, provided the affected agencies manage to catch up on lost time. In short, the sooner this shutdown episode ends, the faster the overall publication of macroeconomic figures will return to normal. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
SPX — Still Below Anchored VWAP, Eyes on Lower Channel BoundSPX remains capped below the anchored VWAP — sellers still dictating flow. If price can’t reclaim above, a move toward the lower bound of this descending channel remains in play. Watching for a reaction near channel support. Macro Backdrop: Sticky yields: 10Y holding near cycle highs keeps pressure on equity multiples. Fed tone: “Higher for longer” stance limits risk appetite and valuation expansion. Slowing growth: Softening ISM and consumer data hint at cooling demand. Earnings compression: Margin pressures building as labor and input costs stay elevated. Geopolitical overhangs: Middle East tensions and trade friction adding to risk-off tone.
SP:SPX
by Alchemy Markets
S&P500 expected to open on a cautious note- earnings in focusUS equities lost momentum yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling -0.53%, snapping a three-day winning streak as renewed US-China trade tensions, weak corporate earnings, and continued government shutdown worries weighed on sentiment. Key Drivers: Trade concerns dominated after reports that the Trump administration is considering export restrictions to China on products containing or developed with US software, in retaliation for China’s rare earth export limits. This escalation hit semiconductor and tech stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down -2.36%. Later, more conciliatory comments from Trump—suggesting a deal with China was still possible—helped stem deeper losses but failed to lift markets meaningfully. Oil prices were the exception, with Brent Crude rising above $64/bbl after the US imposed new sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producers, intensifying pressure on global energy markets. Gold continued its slide, falling another -0.65%, following Wednesday’s sharp selloff. Corporate News: Tesla shares came under pressure after profits plunged despite record sales, as rising costs hit margins. CEO Elon Musk used the earnings call to defend his proposed $1 trillion pay package. Broader earnings sentiment weakened amid several disappointing results, adding to the cautious tone. Global Developments: In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a plan to diversify exports away from the US and attract skilled immigration, signaling shifting trade dynamics in North America. Outlook for Today: Markets are expected to open on a cautious note, with traders monitoring fresh earnings releases and US data for signs of resilience. The S&P 500’s near-term direction will likely hinge on whether confidence improves around trade and earnings, or if risk aversion continues to build into the weekend. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6720 Resistance Level 2: 6755 Resistance Level 3: 6765 Support Level 1: 6645 Support Level 2: 6590 Support Level 3: 6560 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by Trade Nation
US500 BREAKS 6,740:Bull Market Roars, But Inflation Shadows PeakUS500 Snapshot US500 is exhibiting a clear bullish trend, pushing to new all time highs above 6,740. Strong momentum is driven by robust corporate earnings, particularly from large cap technology stocks, and prevailing bullish investor sentiment. Key Drivers and Catalysts: Earnings Strength: Resilient corporate earnings, particularly within the "Magnificent 7" mega cap technology stocks, remain the primary engine for the index's upside. Sticky Inflation & Fed Policy : Persistent inflation in the services sector is injecting selective caution but reinforcing the appeal of strong, high growth companies. With expectations elevated for the US Fed to cut rates to protect a weakening US Jobs market further supporting the index. Political Policy Influence: The forward outlook is being shaped by economic policy prospects, notably potential tariffs and tax changes under President Trump's administration. Outlook: Key Risks & Levels: The general consensus among major financial institutions is for further growth towards year end, with targets ranging from the conservative 5,700 to the bullish 7,100. The prevailing scenario is a continuation of the upside toward the next major resistance level near 6,800. While continued earnings expansion and a relatively stable macro backdrop support single digit growth expectations, the outlook is tempered by key risks: High Valuations: Elevated index valuations could limit aggressive buying. Macro/Policy Risks: Moderate volatility is expected around upcoming inflation and interest rate data. Furthermore, ongoing uncertainties related to trade and policy (e.g., the tariff debate) pose a risk to sentiment. Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SP:SPXLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Utilities vs S&P 500 — defensive spread for market extremesWhen markets reach phases of overvaluation and extreme concentration, we believe positioning in the Utilities vs S&P 500 spread (XLU/SPX) can make sense. Looking back, in every correction of more than 20% in the S&P 500, the Utilities sector has outperformed — by margins ranging from +13% to +68%, depending on the severity of the selloff. This spread acts as a defensive play, isolating sector risk and reducing exposure to market-wide drawdowns, while still participating in the broader market cycle. Utilities tend to hold up better when: Rates stabilize or decline. Market breadth narrows to a few mega caps. Risk-off sentiment starts to rise. 📈 We’re watching this spread closely at current levels.
TVC:SPXLong
by OrbisInvestment
High CPI, Higher Markets: America’s Paradox of ConfidenceBy Giorgalexis The CPI is high, inflation refuses to die — yet Wall Street keeps climbing. Indices sit at all-time highs, the Fed is signaling possible rate cuts, and investors keep chanting the same mantra: “We’re Americans. We can handle everything.” Soft landing? ✅ Unemployment at 4.3%? “Totally fine.” AI-driven construction and growth? “The new frontier.” The narrative feels bulletproof — or at least that’s what we want to believe. The Illusion of Strength In global negotiations, a falling market equals weakness. No U.S. president wants to appear vulnerable, especially with geopolitical rivals watching. When the S&P 500 is breaking records, America looks unstoppable — confident, dominant, secure. So everything must happen before the cracks start to show. But illusions don’t last forever. The Secret Recession Beneath the headlines, the economy tells a different story. Corporate margins are thinning, credit card delinquencies are creeping higher, and consumer sentiment is quietly deteriorating. Liquidity is evaporating for small businesses, even as megacaps report “record profits.” Everyone feels the slowdown — yet few are willing to admit it. This is the Secret Recession: a quiet contraction hiding behind the noise of a bullish market. The Gold Paradox Even gold has joined the party — trading at all-time highs while stocks do the same. That’s not normal. Gold usually shines when fear dominates, not when markets are euphoric. When both gold and equities rise together, it signals a market that’s swimming in liquidity but drowning in doubt. Investors are hedging against something — maybe inflation that never really went away, maybe a Fed policy mistake, or maybe the silent recognition that global stability is more fragile than it looks. Central banks keep buying gold, the dollar stays firm, and everyone pretends it’s business as usual. But every ounce of gold at record highs is a vote of no-confidence — not in America’s power, but in its sustainability. The Paradox of Confidence The Fed faces a dangerous equation: Cut rates too soon, and inflation re-ignites. Hold them too high, and growth breaks. Yet markets have priced in both — strong growth and imminent easing. It’s a fantasy of eternal expansion. AI will save productivity, rates will drop, earnings will rise, and geopolitics will magically calm down. Until data proves otherwise. Because once the market starts doubting the narrative, once data becomes stronger than politics, the illusion fades — fast. How Long Can It Last? For now, momentum is on America’s side. Global capital still wants to flow into the U.S. China and Russia may challenge the order, but Wall Street remains the global benchmark for optimism. Still, confidence is not infinite. Markets rise on belief — and collapse on doubt. Gold already senses what equities refuse to see. Final Thought As traders, we live for momentum. But even the strongest trend hides a reversal point. When optimism turns into policy, and markets become diplomacy, it’s only a matter of time before reality reclaims the chart.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by giorgalexis
SPX500 Drops as Regional Banking Worries Shake Wall StreetSPX500 – Overview | Bearish Pressure Below 6,578 U.S. stock futures fell nearly 2% as regional banking concerns resurfaced following disappointing earnings and early signs of credit stress across smaller U.S. lenders. The selloff reignited fears about credit quality and dragged global markets lower, while traders now shift focus to upcoming earnings from regional banks and American Express for further clues on financial stability. 🕯 Technical Outlook SPX500 maintains bearish momentum while trading below 6,578, targeting 6,550 → 6,527 → 6,506. A 1H close above 6,578 would shift sentiment bullish, opening the path toward 6,609 → 6,635 → 6,670. Pivot: 6,578 Support: 6,550 – 6,527 – 6,506 Resistance: 6,609 – 6,635 – 6,670
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P 500 May Show Signs of FatigueS&P 500 has rallied steadily since April, but some traders may see signs of fatigue. The first pattern on today’s chart is the large bearish candle last Friday, October 10, as trade wars resurfaced. Prices have remained trapped inside the range since. Does the sideways trend mark an end to the six-month uptrend? Second is the high on September 22, higher high on October 9 and lower high on October 15. That may be viewed as a potential rounded top. A pair of bearish outside bars could also be viewed as reversal signals. Third is the October 3 weekly close of 6,715. SPX peaked near the same level on Wednesday and Thursday, which may suggest resistance has been established at a lower level. Fourth, you have the September 26 weekly close of 6,644. The index plunged beneath that price last Friday and tried unsuccessfully to rebound above it in the first half of this week. That may reflect a lack of new support. Next, SPX is potentially breaking a rising trendline that began in late May. Finally, MACD has recently turned negative and prices may be stalling at the 8-day exponential moving average. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
Longer term S&P500 potential Slightly longer term look at the S&P 500 if we see a further decline in price. This is a weekly chart and would need to see price decline by some 15% from the current level. Theres a few current catalysts that could contribute to such a move: - US government shutdown comes to an end. The shutdown itself maybe wouldn't have the biggest market reaction but at the moment markets are trading in the dark with the absence of major US macro data so the eventual release of this data will cause some very big volatility, just a matter of seeing in which direction. - We've seen some positivity in the geopolitical space and market were continuing to rally although it seems it's either priced in now or has been shrugged off, well see how goes through the remainder of trumps peace deal. - We're also coming into Q3 earning and some of the big names have been massively helping to drive indexes higher. Any big misses or beats on earnings could also provide some big volatility, lots of stocks are propped up with high expectations so downside could be big on misses. - Finally, market is still uneasy since that last tariff threat to China , confirmation on the end of this would also spread some good positivity in the equity space. Any of these current drivers could have the potential to see price towards the weekly trendline or to breakout through ATH's again. Depending on if you're taking a leveraged shorter term trade or an unleveraged ETF investment would determine how/when you enter on such a pullback.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by ElGore18
Market Pulse: Cracks in the Bull?We kick off the week with the S&P still riding its two-month uptrend, supported by the 55-day MA at 6541. But signs of fatigue are emerging. 📉 Amazon is slipping below its 200-day MA 📊 NVIDIA’s recent high at 195.62 hovers near the 197 Fibonacci extension and the 200 psychological level Technically, the uptrend holds—and if 6765 the recent high breaks, the bull may charge on. If the 55-day MA erodes, brace for a correction. 🔍 Keep chart levels in focus 📌 Tighten stops ⚠️ Not investment advice #TechnicalAnalysis #SP500 #Amazon #NVIDIA #MarketUpdate #TradingStrategy #RiskManagement #Fibonacci #BullMarket #ChartWatch #FinanceTwitter #LinkedInFinance
SP:SPX
by The_STA
From 'pullbacks' to a 'correction' (S&P 500)Setup Still Bullish. Be patient for entry near end of the corrective move lower Evidence.. -Trend is up, no top pattern -No longer 'dips' to 50 DMA, now into a 'correction' with possible move towards 100 DMA -Large bearish engulfing weekly candle -The 4 month old trendline has broken. -RSI has dropped under support - but not yet characteristic of bearish trend by going oversold -Price has landed at a demand zone under 6500 (could rebound from here) Signal Looking to go long on another test of the demand zone OR at next supports found at matching lows of 6350 then 6200
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by jasperlawler
1
SPX 500 Swing/Day Trade Plan | Bullish Layers & Risk Guard✨ SPX 500 Index | Market Wealth Strategy Map (Swing/Day Trade) ✨ 🚨 Plan: Bullish bias with Thief Strategy (layered limit entries). 🕹️ Style: Multiple buy-limit orders placed at different levels (“layering method” for smarter entries). 🎯 Entry Plan (Layered Thief Style) 🔑 Buy Limit Layers: 6660, 6680, 6700, 6720 ➕ You can add more layers if market conditions allow. 🧠 Idea: Scaling in like a true Thief 🕶️ — stealing the best spots! 🛑 Stop Loss (SL) Thief SL: @ 6640 ⚠️ Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I’m not recommending you to use only my SL. It’s your money → your choice → your risk management. 🎯 Target (TP) Primary Target: @ 6900 🌀 Why? Shockwave resistance ⚡ + overbought zones 📈 + liquidity traps 🪤. ⛑️ Again, it’s your choice to set your own TP — escape with profits when you feel comfortable! 📊 Related Pairs & Correlations to Watch CAPITALCOM:US500 / SP:SPX / CME_MINI:ES1! → Direct correlation to SPX 500. NASDAQ:NDX / NASDAQ 100 → Often leads tech momentum, affects SPX swings. TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) → Strong dollar = pressure on indices. Weak dollar = fuel for bulls. CAPITALCOM:US30 (Dow Jones) → Sometimes diverges from SPX, offering confluence signals. TVC:VIX → Volatility Index — spikes = watch out for fakeouts / liquidity grabs. 💡 Key Takeaways ✅ Thief layering entry style = Scaling smarter, not harder. ✅ SL/TP = Flexible to your own trading psychology & risk appetite. ✅ Always respect risk management & don’t copy-paste blindly. ✅ Remember: markets love traps — be the thief, not the victim. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a Thief-style strategy shared just for fun & market learning purposes. Not financial advice — trade at your own risk! #SPX500 #US500 #SP500 #SPX #ThiefStrategy #DayTrading #SwingTrading #IndexTrading #MarketAnalysis #StockMarket
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by The-Thief
This could be a big Triangle on SPX500USDHi traders, Last week we saw a correction up and more downside for SPX500USD just as I've said in my outlook. On Friday it went up again so the corrective pattern could be a Triangle. In that case next week we could see another correction down and after that up again. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for the finish of this bigger correction. Trading inside a Triangle is a sure way to lose. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USD
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500: TACO Trump or Something More Serious?After a summer of plain sailing for the S&P 500, Friday’s sell-off was the first market wobble we’ve witnessed in some time. Let’s take a look at what this means moving forward… Tariff Turbulence Returns Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats against China sent shockwaves through markets on Friday, triggering the S&P 500’s biggest one-day drop since April. His comments, accusing Beijing of becoming “very hostile” and vowing “massive” tariffs, reignited fears of a full-blown trade war. Investors rushed into safe havens, pushing Treasury yields lower and sending gold back toward record highs. The sell-off saw more than four in five stocks in the index finish in the red, bringing an abrupt pause to the market’s recent record-breaking run. But as Wall Street traders know, Trump’s tariff threats don’t always end the way they start. The “Trump Always Chickens Out” or TACO trade has become a familiar playbook for traders who buy the dip after a tariff announcement, then sell the rebound when the president softens his tone. Sure enough, over the weekend Trump hinted at reconciliation, praising President Xi and calling for cooperation. That shift helped US futures rebound early Monday, as investors once again bet that the sell-off might be more bark than bite. The question now is whether this episode follows the usual TACO script or signals something deeper brewing beneath the surface. Bearish Engulfing Shock Sets the Parameters Friday’s daily candle tells the story best. The huge bearish engulfing candle didn’t just erase the prior week’s gains, it wrapped around several days of price action and signalled a sharp shift in sentiment. Its sheer size is significant because range expansion after a calm period often marks a turning point in market psychology. The candle’s lower wick, finding support near the 50-day moving average, shows that buyers did emerge at key trend support, but how price behaves within this range will now define the path forward. US500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results The hourly chart shows how that panic played out and how quickly traders have tried to repair the damage. The market found support before gapping higher at Monday’s open, showing a tentative attempt to stabilise. This kind of response often reveals whether a sell-off was a genuine trend reversal or a momentary flush of emotion. If price can keep grinding higher from here and close back above the midpoint of Friday’s engulfing candle, it would confirm that the uptrend remains intact and that buyers still have control. However, if the S&P 500 stalls or consolidates in the lower half of that candle’s range, it would be a clear warning that the market’s tone has changed. Sideways price action here would imply that traders are waiting for confirmation rather than chasing rebounds, and that shift in behaviour can often lead to a second leg lower. The size of Friday’s engulfing candle now marks a battleground between short-term buyers and cautious longer-term investors. Whether we see a swift recovery or a slow grind will reveal if this was just another TACO moment or the start of something more meaningful. US500 Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capital.com
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SP:SPX
by TradingView
17
SPX ceiling has set in, we expect no further bull activity!This will happen, what will cause it, I don't know......... NO MORE BULL ACTIVITY FOR SPX, ITS ONLY DOWN FROM HERE - Goldstandard212 Friday will be bloody for SPX. We've been calling the bull move since 5,900$ and before I opened this account, even lower (the bottom). Please see linked ideas to see how we've called every move for SPX, THIS IS FAR TOO EASY WHEN YOU ARE IN THE KNOW. from your favourite insider info guy......
SP:SPXShort
by Goldstandard212
4
S&P 500 & Trade War: What Are the Technical Damages?The sudden resurgence of trade tensions between the United States and China triggered a shockwave across global financial markets last Friday, hitting the S&P 500 index hard. Beijing’s announcement of new export controls on rare earths, followed by Donald Trump’s threat to double tariffs on Chinese goods to 100%, has revived the specter of a full-scale trade war. This escalation caused a sharp technical correction in the U.S. index, which just experienced its worst session in six months. Although negotiations could still lead to an agreement by the end of October between China and the U.S., investors fear a direct impact on the margins of major industrial and tech companies—already weakened by rising import costs and record-high valuations. So, what are the technical damages on the S&P 500 from this renewed trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies? 1) The S&P 500 is rejecting from the upper boundary of its long-term bullish channel During the trading session on Tuesday, September 30, I shared a technical update on the S&P 500 questioning whether an annual high had been reached. The first chart below links to that analysis: The technical damage from the sharp decline on Friday, October 10, remains limited for now, as no major support levels have been broken. However, the S&P 500 has clearly rejected from the upper boundary of the long-term bullish channel in place since 2020 — an area that could correspond to the completion of wave 5 according to Elliott Wave analysis. For the start of this week, the 50-day moving average must be closely monitored, as its breakdown last February marked the beginning of the March/April correction tied to the trade war. The chart below shows the weekly Japanese candlesticks of the S&P 500: 2) The Russell 2000 index rejects below its all-time high Looking at market breadth, another notable technical weakness appears: the bearish rejection of the Russell 2000 index below its record high of 2,460 points. A rejection under resistance is one thing, but the key now is to avoid breaking support—particularly the 2,360-point level. 3) This technical rejection occurs at very high valuation levels The current valuation of the S&P 500 is historically elevated, near levels last seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble. The Shiller P/E ratio is approaching 40, signaling a pronounced overvaluation of U.S. equities. The 12-month forward P/E exceeds 30, well above its long-term average, while the Buffett indicator (market capitalization to GDP) is above 200%, an all-time record. Such an imbalance heightens the risk of a technical correction if interest rates rise or corporate earnings weaken due to the trade war. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
1
US500 (S&P 500) Technical Forecast: At a Critical Crossroad🎯 US500 (S&P 500) Technical Forecast: At a Critical Crossroad The US500 trades at 6,672.1, testing a major technical confluence. Our analysis points to a tense equilibrium between bulls and bears, with the next directional move set for a significant breakout. 📊 Multi-Timeframe Synthesis & Market Structure Daily (Trend Bias): The long-term trend remains cautiously bullish above the 6,600 support (50 EMA & prior resistance break). However, price action is compressing, indicating a loss of momentum and a potential coiling for a volatile move. 4H & 1H (Swing Setup): A potential Double Top pattern is forming, with the neckline near 6,640. The 4H RSI shows a pronounced bearish divergence, signaling weakening buying pressure. This is a primary warning for swing traders. Intraday (15M/5M - Precision): Immediate resistance is firm at 6,690 - 6,700 (psychological level). Support sits at 6,660. A break below 6,660 targets the 6,640 neckline. The 5M Anchored VWAP is capping rallies. 🧠 Key Technical Narratives & Theories Elliott Wave & Wyckoff: The structure from the last low suggests we may be in a complex Wave 4 correction or the final phase of a Wyckoff distribution (Upthrust After Distribution). A break below 6,640 would confirm this bearish narrative. Gann & Harmonic Levels: Key Gann support converges with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level near 6,620-6,630. This is the next major target if sellers overpower the 6,640 level. Ichimoku Cloud: On the 4H chart, price is trading within the Kumo (cloud), indicating a loss of trend direction and a battleground between buyers and sellers. ⚖️ Momentum & Volume Assessment RSI (14): Reading 49 on the 1D, neutral but bearish-diverged on lower timeframes. Bollinger Bands (20): Price is hugging the middle band, and bands are squeezing, indicating a period of low volatility that often precedes a high-volatility expansion. Volume & VWAP: Recent attempts to push higher have been on declining volume, a classic sign of a potential bull trap. Anchored VWAP from the recent swing low is now resistance. 🛠️ Trade Plan & Levels Swing Short Idea: Sell on a confirmed break below 6,640 (close on 1H), targeting 6,620 and then 6,580. Stop loss above 6,710. Intraday Short Idea: Sell on a break below 6,660 or rejection from 6,690, targeting 6,640. Stop loss above 6,705. Intraday Long Idea: Only consider buys on a strong break and hold above 6,700 with rising volume, targeting 6,730. Stop loss below 6,680. 💡 The Bottom Line The US500 is showing cracks in its bullish armor. The burden of proof is on the bulls to reclaim 6,700. Until then, the path of least resistance appears to be lower, with a break of 6,640 likely triggering a deeper pullback. Manage risk carefully in this volatile setup. Disclaimer: This is technical analysis, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by sunya
SP500Consoldation Could Next falling patternSP500 Price consolidation a bearish trend due the U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains as renewed concerns over U.S.–China trade relations weighed on sentiment. The latest trade-related headlines reignited fears of escalating tensions between the two economic powers. These moves followed a sharp rebound on Wall Street Monday, when President Donald Trump struck a softer tone toward China. That came after last week’s threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, which had erased roughly $2 trillion in market value. Technical Analysis The S&P 500 appears to be consolidating after recent volatility Bearish bias emerging following a failed breakout at key resistance the index reversed from the resistance zone, suggesting sellers are regaining control a potential shift to the downside remains in play, with near-term targets at 6,510 and 6,401 You may find more details in the chart. Trade wisely best of Luck. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
VANTAGE:SP500
by MrMartin_11
9