US500 Trade Recap - 03/05/24Trade Recap on US500 03/05/24 Key Lesson for today - Understand the 5min story and the 1min story. Have Valid BOS, not just any random candles breaking structure. 12:28by A_Dominic0
Stock Market Secrets You Need to KnowUnderstanding the Interplay Between S&P 500, Core CPI, and the Non-Manufacturing Index The world of finance is a complex web of interconnected factors, where seemingly disparate indices can influence one another in unexpected ways. Among these, the S&P 500 , Core CPI ( Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index ), and the Non-Manufacturing Index stand out as key indicators of economic health. Understanding their relationship is crucial for investors, economists, and policymakers alike. The S&P 500 , often referred to simply as "the S&P," is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best indicators of the overall health of the U.S . stock market and, by extension, the broader economy. When the S&P 500 rises, it generally indicates investor confidence and economic growth. On the other hand, Core CPI tracks changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households, excluding food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile. As a measure of inflation, Core PCI provides insights into consumers' purchasing power and the overall cost of living. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, closely monitor inflation trends to inform their monetary policy decisions. The Non-Manufacturing Index, also known as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index , gauges the economic activity in the services sector, which encompasses industries such as retail, healthcare, finance, and transportation. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. As services dominate modern economies, the Non-Manufacturing Index is a crucial barometer of economic health and consumer sentiment. So, how do these indices relate to each other? Firstly, the S&P 500 and the Non-Manufacturing Index often move in tandem. As the services sector accounts for a significant portion of the U.S. economy, positive data from the Non-Manufacturing Index tends to boost investor confidence, leading to higher stock prices reflected in the S&P 500. Conversely, a decline in the Non-Manufacturing Index may signal economic weakness, potentially causing the S&P 500 to fall. Secondly, Core CPI plays a vital role in shaping monetary policy decisions. Central banks use inflation data to adjust interest rates and implement other monetary tools to stabilize the economy. A higher Core CPI could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates to curb inflation, which could potentially dampen stock market returns represented by the S&P 500. In summary, the relationship between the S&P 500, Core CPI, and the Non-Manufacturing Index underscores the interdependence of financial markets , consumer behavior , and economic activity . Investors and policymakers must carefully analyze these indices in concert to gain a comprehensive understanding of the prevailing economic conditions and make informed decisions.Educationby MonstralianUpdated 2
WEEKLY WATCHLISTABOUT This idea post is showing some of my longer term stocks that are creating a good structural bases. Following are going to be a list with annotations for each stock as well as what I am seeing. I will be updating through out the week when I finish my full screening. ABOUT ME & MY TRADING STYLE I have over 15 years trading experience. In that time I have tried most of the things that any new trader might do: options, forex, futures, day trading, position trading, scalping, quant, automated systems. Read +200 books on different trading aspects. In that time my style formed best explained as: Breakout Trader Trading US Stocks & Crypto On a swing timeframe 80% technical & 20% fundamental THE IDEAS Stock 1: NASDAQ:WING Forming a flat to ascending base. I like the close on 1MAY warnings day and the subsequent support on the stock. Stock 2: NASDAQ:ALAB Newer IPO base good as it goes above the new high. Its a Semiconductor and could be put in as an AI play. Stock 3: NASDAQ:GCT Forming nice consolidation. It could develop as Volatility Contraction Pattern but requires 1) at least one more contraction 2) last rank before the breakout has to be a single digit contraction <-9% high to low on the pivot contraction. Stock 4: NYSE:OSCR This is showing a nice cup with handle pattern. The handle is good to be a bit deeper but if it moves over the horizontal line with volume it would be buyable. Be ware 07MAY - Earnings! Stock 5: NASDAQ:DDOG This is a lower quality name. Could provide for a quick trade from this cheat setup (lower consolidation within the base). Above $134 would be breaking out. Longby SimplerSignals3
SPX Is Having A Little Push Squeezing The Tush !Hey my fellow traders! How's it go? Hope all of you are careful out there and making profits $$$. Some of you might be getting overwhelmed by some choppiness and rumors coming from all directions. I will do my best to share my spin on what I see on the charts and give some of you a perspective you might not have visited yet. Let's take one bite at a time so we can get a good chew making it's easier to swallow. SPX daily on Oanda has a downward sloping trendline. Price is rising with some momentum giving a hint that price has intentions to test or hit that area around 5160, depending how long they take to get there. For now let's assume from Friday to next week. 5160 is an area to watch and see if they break out of or fall back into the down trend. Remember the trend is still down until not, but one can still scalp good profits from a counter trend trade soooo, Just use caution if you do.Longby Trade-FarmerUpdated 224
Grand Super Cycle S&P 500 Analysis: Riding the Fifth of the FiftIn Elliott Wave Theory, we're navigating the vast ocean of market cycles, and currently, we find ourselves in uncharted waters: the fifth of the fifth of the Grand Super Cycle or Grand Millennium Wave. This level of analysis delves into macroeconomic cycles of epic proportions, spanning centuries, and it's raising questions, even some of a doomsday nature. 1. The Fifth of the Fifth: Unprecedented Territory We're accustomed to analyzing cycles within cycles, but reaching the fifth of the fifth at the Grand Super Cycle level is unprecedented. This raises profound questions about the nature of market behavior, suggesting we're witnessing historical shifts in global economics. 2. Where Does the Fifth End? The big question is where this fifth wave concludes. The sheer scale of this cycle prompts speculation about significant market events, perhaps even a structural shift in the global financial system. 3. "The Fifth Wave" Movie: Coincidence or Significance? The release of the movie "The Fifth Wave" in 2016 adds an intriguing layer to this analysis. While it's speculative, it's fascinating to ponder if there's a connection between cultural expressions and market cycles. Are there subtle signals in popular media about broader economic shifts? 4. Significance of the Next Correction To grasp the significance of our next correction, we need to understand the scale of the Grand Super Cycle. Consider that the Tech boom and bust, the 2008 real estate Great Recession, and even COVID-19 can be contained within smaller waves. For instance, the Tech boom and bust and 2008 recession could be viewed as an ABC correction in the wave 2 of the Grand Super Cycle, while COVID-19 might be seen as an expanded flat wave within the Millennium Super Cycle, itself a part of a larger wave three of a step up in the Grand Millennium Super Cycle. Conclusion: Analyzing the S&P 500 at the Grand Super Cycle level is like navigating through the cosmos of economic cycles. We're currently at a juncture never seen before, the fifth of the fifth, prompting profound questions about the future trajectory of global markets. While we can't predict with certainty where this wave will end, understanding its scale and significance can provide valuable insights into potential market movements and economic shifts on a grand scale. (Note: This analysis is speculative and based on Elliott Wave Theory. Investors should conduct thorough research and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions.)by candlestickninja110
SPX Short Term BullLooks like SPX is forming a Bear Wedge Flag. That is a continuation pattern. The 50MA was not passed on the weekly close. If we break above that 50MA then it looks bullish to me. If we break above the Bear Flag then it is even more bullish. So short term, things look bullish. Longby RCON0
US 500 5146 planThis idea is based on the retest of entry line and rejection up towards the targets. Be patient with entry, enter just after this rejection. Set your SL after the entry and if any 30M candle closes below the SL zone, cutloss your trade. TP your trade partially at the black lines. I will update this trade when-if entry conditions are met. Not guaranteed. If you want more precise updated in time, you know what to do. Wish you good luck. Longby Rendon1Updated 8
SPX analysis: Riding the wavesWe can easily guess that this segment is made of three waves and the wave of one larger degree is directed upwards since the whole segment is directed upwards. Thus, the actionary corrective waves here are waves A and C, when a major bull market begins, while the reactionary wave is wave B.Longby CRYPTOSIXT335
S&P 500 At Major Decision PointThe stock market is at a major decision point, with 1969 low unemployment up-trending for the better part of the last year. Low unemployment *potentially* signals the maximum productivity of an economy. This is an important area to watch and wait. If we break above and trend-line check into support it could mean a bull market similar to 1990's is starting. However if it holds as resistance we're unfortunately looking at a move back down to support much much lower than where we are right now. I'd like to think because of visiting support twice in the dot-com crash and mortgage crisis that we are much more likely to break upward. But caution should be on our minds. It's a very good idea to sit on the sidelines and wait for a clear direction to emerge. Good luck!by bwy1
TOP IN SPY 513 area I can now count the move up from 4954 two ways a simple abc rally into .618 or the chart posted 5 wave up for a wave A I lead towards the ABC both had the math into the same targets . I have moved out of the longs 75 % to zero and moved into 35 to 40 % long PUTS best of trades WAVETIMER trade # 23 for 23 by wavetimer2
SPX Further DownsideSPX at lower high, chances are that we might see some selling from here and a correction of at least 5%Shortby GokulKannan86b0
SP500// ES Key zone 26.1 stm.Short-term Neutral-Bullish Intermediate Neutral-Bearish ES. On the downside, we have aggressive support at 5098.25-5002.25; holding above signals strength/stability and a break down below would be an early warning sign. Below 5098.25, we have Support at 5080-5090 where Buyers can still be active. Break and HOLD Below 5080 = Intraday Bearish by southsiderealtrade1
SPX500 - More Bearish Action 🐻SPX500 As we looked at, this wedge shaped fractal looked very weak as soon as it started to grind upward from the second bounce. Now it has slumped down below the lower wedge trendline and that is quite a bearish look down there. From here there will be a lot of resistance above and its now unlikely that it can reach the upper trendline again without first capitulating. It will probably either have a weak bounce and perhaps tap liquidity inside the wedge above the lower trendline. Or it could be already in a strong downtrend already and just continue down. If it bounces I'll be adding to my short positions. Not adviceShortby dRends35Updated 228
Next Leg Correction underwayRally was short and sweet. Got 0.50. Fibo. Meta cracked it. Was fading all day already after the morning pump; just three up days. C legs typically extend farther and give a 1.62 extension, capitulation and panic prevail. May will be Bearish, at least to start, imo. Need to watch this correction carefully to gauge whether it takes ABC form or a more sinister impulsive move. Setup for a summer rally beyond.Shortby DaddySawbucksUpdated 111167
Sell in May and go Away ... not too fastWe recently saw the AMEX:SPY index falling very fast and aggressively to the correction territory. The level found support around the 4950s. After all the events like Earnings, one day down, the other day up, and both very aggressive, plus the Fed meeting, also with a wild rollercoaster. At the end of the day the index found support above the 4950. Which is good news, and the first step. What does it come next? After all this spring clean I am expecting that all the weak hands were shaken and the "buy low sell high" comes next. Double bottom and a target level 5200 for the SP500. The VIX spiked to the dreadful level of 20 and it came down. No WWIII, no Iran vs Israel, no international events. "News is Noise". The market shrugged off the events and determined that the 100 ma support was stronger. We're still in the correction territory, until we go past the 50 ma the next target will be the All Time High ATH levels we saw by the end of March. The market hates to become predictable, so the "Sell in May and go Away ..." could as well have turned into "Sell in April, don't be fooled". Indicators: Madrid Ribbon at 100/200 ma Madrid EMA at 50 Madrid Momentum Indicator Madrid Display Symbol showing VIX Longby Madrid11
SPX500Pair : SPX500 Index Description : Consolidation Phase Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Waves Break of Structure and Retracement Fibonacci Level - 61.80% Exp Fiat as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frameby ForexDetective4
Rising into overlap resistance?The S&P 500 (US500) is rising towards the pivot. Could this index potentially reverse off this level to drop towards the 1st support? Pivot: 5,119.91 1st Support: 5,014.00 1st Resistance: 5,167.12 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.UShortby ICmarkets0
SPX500USD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5078.5. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 4997.7 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Shortby SignalProvider226
SPX500 Is Bullish! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 5052.7. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 5149.4 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!Longby SignalProviderUpdated 223
What does a First Fed Rate cut really mean?ANALYSIS ON FED STANCE Powell has consistently indicated that interest rate decisions would hinge on economic data, a stance reaffirmed by the unchanged rates in the latest policy announcement. Despite the Fed's clarification that rate cuts are unlikely until there is more certainty that inflation is consistently heading towards the 2% target, some still question if this is truly a dovish stance. Persistent high inflation has led to adjustments in the market's expectations, now reflecting only a 45% likelihood of a single rate cut by September—down from earlier predictions of three cuts this year. I maintain that even this adjusted forecast is overly optimistic. (drawn and extrapolated on the chart above) Powell emphasized that the Fed requires more than a month or two of data to influence policy changes, pointing out that the data from the most recent quarter has been particularly concerning. This sentiment is reflected in the market's behavior, with rising yields and ongoing corrections in equities. Market volatility remains high, especially around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, evidenced by significant selling in both the Nasdaq ( NASDAQ:IXIC ) and NYSE on high trading volumes. In light of these conditions and Powell's recent remarks and the elevated volatility, I've chosen to scale back my market exposure back to nearly 100% cash for about 3 weeks now. WHAT DOES CUTTING RATE REALLY MEAN FOR STOCK MARKET I have calculated all the times when there has been a First Fed Rate Cut and extrapolated the 6-month % change and the 12-month % change following this First Fed Rate Cut. Assuming that this can happen in September (currently about 45% chance that rates will be cut in September based on the CME FedWatch Tool), then I have plotted the results using a black line. This is the average of the 24 times since 1921 that the Fed has made a FIRST rate cut. It is clear that the average scenario is very bullish with an average 12month change around +14-15% on the SP:SPX . However, what is more interesting is that if we look at the times where there is a rate cut without having a recession the scenario becomes very strong. The real concerns of the FED is that we might get reaccelerating in inflation. We are currently in a goldilocks situations, since even though inflation is a little high, the economy is growing and we are not overheating (much better position than EU economies, which are not growing so fast and would have to cut faster). Rates currently are about on average where they would be on a long term 5-year history. This reaccelerating fear is based on events happened before in 1970s and 1980s. You can see in the picture below and what the FED looks to avoid. If you are interested to play with the data, I have made the tool available in my script section. INDICATOR RAW DATA Feel free to use the raw data of the First Fed Rate cut for further analysis below. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 05/05/1921 -12.01 9.87 05/01/1924 11.96 33.8 04/23/1926 11.29 12.82 08/05/1927 10.16 14.29 11/04/1929 13.87 -7.96 02/26/1932 -37.46 -29.83 04/07/1933 76.34 81.66 02/05/1954 16.7 39.39 11/15/1957 4.04 28.53 06/10/1960 -6.72 6.00 04/07/1967 8.65 3.64 08/30/1968 2.35 -6.84 11/13/1970 21.26 7.00 11/19/1971 18.61 24.04 12/09/1974 41.76 41.68 05/30/1980 16.75 17.29 11/02/1981 -7.43 16.02 11/21/1984 7.92 21.7 06/06/1989 10.31 17.17 07/06/1995 10.93 22.28 09/29/1998 21.11 26.4 01/03/2001 -4.26 -7.78 09/18/2007 -11.93 -22.78 07/31/2019 7.43 -2.05 Mean 9.9 14.43 Median 10.23 15.16Longby SimplerSignals5
SPX500: ITF Curve AnalysisThis is a Swing Trade based on the 1D Intermediate Time Frame. An Oanda CFDShortby ProfessorCEWard1
SPX500USD: LTF Curve AnalysisThis is a Day Trade based on the 25m Low Time Frame. An Oanda CFDShortby ProfessorCEWard1