SPX - Take Care Out There 😨SPX This week SPX collapsed out of the long term pitchfork and news of more war appears to have triggered this bearish reaction. I think this will make a 0.382 retracement as a minimum now an could even be much more 🤨. Not adviceShortby dRends3511
AI's Cool, but will there be a rug pull? I've seen a lot of people bearish on AI stocks hate a lot on things like ChatGPT or AI image tools. I think they're awesome. But is the AI rally setting up a rug pull? Let's look at the evidence to suggest there might be. In this post I'm going to cover lots of the rug pull setups pending over the markets. Note: These are patterns that are expected to create rug pulls if successful. Failure of them usually implies strong counter move. If these signals fail I've bias towards parabolic moves. AIQ. An ETF for AI. Looks like the textbook harmonic top. Matching with the huge versions of this in indices. Read the below price for a more in depth explanation of what we can expect from harmonic patterns. NVDA is the poster boy for the AI rally and NVDA is now getting into the area where even a really bullish forecast I think would be calling for a correction. Below is an Elliot forecast on NVDA at 500. Forecasting a high around 1,000 with a bit of spike tolerance. In that forecast, this would put in the ABC correction somewhere around here. www.tradingview.com In a more bearish forecast NVDA could be in a mega bubble and have a long way down. SMCI has been getting a lot of attention from it's hyper impressive gains, but might this be a butterfly top? Everyone got so excited about AI that even IBM went up. For the first time in a decade. But might that be a bat/crab? These are all big red flags and it's important to note the nature of harmonics is a complex structure. Four swings have to happen and start and end exactly where they do for the harmonic pattern to form. Now we have all of these big structures coming together on lots of big charts all at the same time. That's notable! When lots of big harmonics form something is going to happen. Either there's going to be a spectacular failure in which we should expect to see markets even stronger than they've been recently or we're heading into a brutal rug pull setup. In almost all instances big harmonics resolve like this. Boom if they break, bust if they work. Then we have things like the BTC trend breaking for the first time ever in 2022. Now being up to spots where there'd be a big rug pull reversal if it turned out there'd actually been a change in trend in BTC and we were in a huge bull trap. ETH still trades around the classic bull trap levels of 76-86 retracements. Final spike patterns from 2022 bull analysis hitting. Hitting on the indices. SPX In the Darling stocks. AAPL The small caps. Even the things people loved to hate, like CNVA. And all of this is happening inside the context of market previously going parabolic on rising interest rates. A condition that has happened before every instance of a major indices crash in the last 40 years. ============================================================================= And the best of it is ... no one cares. Everything things everything is just dandy. Now, it might be. The failure of the confluence of bear signals we have right now would seem to be most dandy indeed - but this is a risky zone! We have a lot of conditions warning us a rug pull might come. Shortby holeyprofitUpdated 4421
SPX: Going Lower1w and 1Month returns have already turned Red like the three weekly candles. Next week we will have the 3 Month returns turn red and .... Rate Cuts are out of the horizon...so why invest!! Shortby SWFguy0
SPX bigger pictureSP:SPX bigger picture - no bear case until you have a few closes below 4400. Instead of trying to time the top - it will be obvious once the trend has changed - plenty of time to join then. For now - trend is still up in the bigger picture - UNTIL you get a few closes under 4400 and below this long term wedge. There is the potential to just melt up into new ATH and 5000+ There is also the potential to drop back to 3500 As traders need to pay attention to important levels. No bear case until couple closes below 4400. If we get a couple of closes UNDER 4400 a SHORT triggers and we would target 3900-4200. If that area falls - then 3400-3500 area is next. If we get a couple of closes ABOVE 4600 a LONG triggers and we would target ATH at 4818.62 then slow melt up into 5000-5300.by Jovan888Updated 6
SPX1. SPX going bottom off this falling wedge right now in my opinion. 2. Falling DXY and USOIL are helping our case too. 3. Going be a great day for CRYPTOCAP:BTC and US Stocks. 4. Also Middle East Finally settling down. Longby PistolPeteno13
Mid April: Market pullbacks, inflation concerns; critical levelsIn April, the markets navigated a sluggish terrain, witnessing pullbacks from the record highs achieved in March for both the S&P 500 and the Dow. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ experienced a marginal dip, bolstered by specific technology stocks. Persistent concerns surrounding inflation lingered, exacerbated by the latest Consumer Price Index data revealing a 3.5% annual increase in March, with core inflation climbing to 3.8%. These figures, coupled with inflation data surpassing expectations, tempered anticipations for immediate interest-rate adjustments. Our analysis pinpoints a notable development as the US stock market dipped below the critical 5141 level, meriting close observation. Signs suggest a potential further descent, potentially to close a gap, presenting a prospective opportunity for traders. We recommend traders monitor these levels vigilantly for insights into market trajectory and potential trading prospects, particularly surrounding the 4982 gap level. This juncture could serve as a pivotal support or resistance zone, contingent upon price action and market sentiment. Diligently tracking these benchmarks can furnish invaluable guidance for making well-informed trading decisions amidst the current market landscape. by Vestinda2
Channel life...Try conving me that she does not like channels or shop at Chanel ... lol This is what I see We still need to go and test both sides of the yellow channel We are bullish and bearish on various timeframes... This is gonna be fun!!!Shortby N934rex0
spx vs oilAlmost 140 years of #SPX priced in #CrudeOil I'll let you guess where this is heading... #inflation #recessionby Badcharts1
SPX500 - Support Becomes Resistance 📉Hi Traders ! Previously, The SPX500 Price Formed a Bearish Double TOP Pattern. Currently, The Price Broke The Support Level (5081.27 - 5051.43). This Key Level Becomes a New Resistance Level ! So, I Expect a Bearish Move 📉. TARGET: 4976.00🎯Shortby Hsan_BenhmedUpdated 7721
Unusually high volume in SPX yesterday.huge volume on SPX yesterday. highest I have ever seen since 2022. there were only couple of days in 2021-2022 that had such a huge volume. usually it hovers around 20k-30k total contracts. but yesterday it was 115K. whoa could this lead to further downside? or was it pre-positioning from people who knew about today's events beforehand?by Osiris9921
Volmageddon. Please Buckle Up. The Plane Will Be Landing SoonStocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility. Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market. It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon' events. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF AMEX:SVXY graph says selling volatility is on the hot spot, like four and six years ago, in 2020 and 2018 respectively. The "Volmageddon" episode happened six years ago after traders piled into a bunch of ETFs that were designed to return the inverse of market volatility (essentially betting on a calm market). And when volatility went up in February 2018 and in February 2020, it tanked those strategies, sending the S&P 500 down more than 10% in two weeks. Investors appear to be taking risky bets again, specifically in VIX futures, which are assets that let investors bet on future volatility. As VIX futures expire, the S&P 500 is seeing stronger price reactions. Based on the magnitude of the move in VIX futures, there is an increasing threat that the rising level of greed in the 'short-volatility' trade, similar to what we saw in 2018 and in 2020, could result in an air-pocket drawdown of 5% or more in the S&P 500, to 4800 points respectively. The short-volatility trade became very popular strategy after 2010 when volatility was low, and traders could make money betting against market turbulence. The Cboe Volatility Index, which is also dubbed as the TVC:VIX or the market's "fear gauge," is sitting around 14, near historical lows. The rebound in interest in short-volatility strategies is once again posing a risk to the broader markets here as a negative catalyst can clearly spark a momentous, derivatives-driven selloff in the broader stock market like that which we saw in 2018 and in 2020. It's not a major concern right away as volatility upticks have been small, and the S&P 500 has remained resilient. The market shrugged off Tuesday's pullback quite fast. But it's worth keeping all your eyes on as all 2024 progress can be erased shortly. Going forward, these expirations will remain dates to keep in mind as the threat of volatility will be elevated as we move further into 2024. Technical graph for CBOE:SPX says we are still in the upside channel since Q4'22, near its upper line, with further perspective opportunities to erase 2024 gain, shrugging back to mid-line around 4800 points. Market breadth says also there're huge divergence in CBOE:SPX and in NASDAQ:NDX all the 2024, as 50-days indicators move firmly down all the year, while indices are still up so far. by PandorraUpdated 446
ID: 002 - PM02.21.2024 Next trade executed. 176 DTE. Trade construct is an unbalanced butterfly structure. Short Strikes DELTA -15 Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
ID: 005 - pm03.18.2024 Next trade in line. 150 DTE. 24/15/5 Delta Strikes, 1-2-1 unbalanced butterfly. Small credit at inception. Happy Trading All! -kevinby KevinsUpdated 0
So far, my idea is playing out.I expect a 12345 retracement or a ABC correction to 3800 by October-November 2024. After that, one year of a new rally to 4800 pips. And then, the really crash by 2026 with a bottom of the market by 2027. Let´s see. Now, little by little: It´s my idea of a correction to 3800 in 6 months time correct? by josemanuelmaestrerodriguez1
Correction UpOn Thursday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced subdued trading as rising Treasury yields put pressure on stock prices. This occurred while investors analyzed remarks from Federal Reserve officials to gauge the future direction of interest rate cuts. Recent data revealed that the number of new unemployment benefit claims in the U.S. remained at low levels last week, indicating ongoing strength in the labor market. Following this report, yields on U.S. Treasury 10-year notes climbed, reaching 4.6223%. Looking ahead, if Treasury yields continue to rise, equity markets may face further challenges. Investors will likely keep a close eye on upcoming economic data and Fed communications to better understand the potential impact on interest rates and stock market dynamics.Longby sabiotrade0
S&P 500 - has sentiment shifted?US stock index futures were firmer in early trade this morning. It remains to be seen if history repeats the market action from Wednesday and Monday, when early gains evaporated as the sessions progressed. Yesterday’s price action saw all the US majors rally early on, before reversing sharply later in the day. Tech stocks were hardest hit. NVIDIA ended the day 3.4% lower, while Apple (-0.8%), Microsoft (-1.2%), Amazon (-1.4%), Meta (-1.4%) and Tesla (-1.8%) all contributed to weakness in the NASDAQ 100. Netflix was also weaker yesterday, falling 1.1%, ahead of its earnings report after tonight’s close. But stock indices did manage to rally off their lows following a relatively positive Fed Beige Book for March. This showed an improvement in financial conditions, with growth rising in ten out of the twelve Fed districts, up from eight out of twelve in February. Despite this, it feels as if we’re in a transition stage between relentless bullishness to a more bearish feel to market sentiment. Ever since the latest leg of the rally began last October, bad news has been shrugged off while good news has been disproportionately rewarded. It now feels as if the polarities are on the cusp of reversing. This has come as the prospect of imminent monetary stimulus in the form of a series of Fed rate cuts this year has been watered down substantially. In fact, concerns have increased recently that the Fed may be forced to hike rates first in another attempt to crush inflation, rather than give the markets what they want in the form of looser monetary policy. The next big test for the market is the first quarter earnings season. Next week could be key when five of the ’Magnificent Seven’ announce results.by TylerNorcross0
US500 / Imbalance Fill - Bullish SPXHello Traders! I expect a bullish on SPX as we see the imbalance fill and a perfect retracement from the OB, considering this movement a signal for weak bearish and a strong bullish sentiment. I expect the price to rise until the 5275 resistance level, with a potential set of a new All Time High. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also, share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is the best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free, and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ____________________________________ www.tradingview.com Longby GoodTradeST2
Bulls and Bears zone for 04-18-2024S&P has been down four straight days. Also, yesterday S&P closed a gap from February which coincides with a support level. Level to watch: 5074 ---5072 Reports to watch: Existing Home Sales 10:00 am EST EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 am EST by traderdan590
USA500 reset on sight!This morning we continue with Eurogroup meetings and comments from the German Bundesbank President and in the afternoon the monetary policy meetings (IRFMP) held in Washington D.C. will be held along with statements from the FED Chairman in Philadelphia and local manufacturing index data, along with US unemployment rates. This data is high impact, along with US home sales, and closing the afternoon will be the 5 year government bond yields which will likely set the tone for the financial day. Looking at the chart, the S&P500 index (Ticker AT: USA500) has been a very poor performer, degrading its price by -5.11% during the first fortnight. It fractured on 12 April the range barrier that had formed since late March and has proceeded to fall to a low of 5,006.04 points. Yesterday at the Australian open it closed at around 5,034 points. If today's news is supportive it will help the S&P500 Index to regain some of its value. If we look at the RSI it is currently slightly oversold at 47.50% with its average being 46.23%, so the quarterly corporate average data is not as good as expected and large firms have been reporting massive layoffs to adjust their costs so this may affect the national unemployment rate. If we look at the shape of the bell, there is currently a triple bell with a median price at 5,200 points, so it would not be surprising if the news goes with the price trying to return to that median, although it is going to be difficult to see this in the short term with such negative economic and unemployment data, which could easily extend its fall to 4,949 points thus closing a bullish cycle that started in February. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk. UShortby ActivTrades3
SPX updateI expect a rebound from current level but bearish pressure will push proce under 5000 area before restoring bullish trendby mpd0
SPX500 Support Ahead! SPX500 keeps falling but will soon retest A horizontal support level Of 5045.38 from where we Will be expecting a local Bullish rebound ! Longby kacim_elloittUpdated 2211
$SPX - idea from the historyI've just faced an unpublished idea about SP:SPX . Will publish it in the mid on the road. ) Does not constitute a recommendation. #furoreggs #investing #stocks #shares #idea #forecast #trading #analysis If you want to discuss, please subscribe and challenge this point of view.Longby furoreggs2
S&P500 Dead-cat-bounce before one last bottom?Our last call on the S&P500 (SPX) couldn't have gone better as the Bearish Megaphone pattern we expected (April 05, see chart below) was eventually materialized and easily hit on Tuesday our 5050 Target: At the moment the index is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support since November 03 2023 and is headed towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) above which the last two main Bearish Legs of the 19-month Channel Up made their first Dead-cat-bounce (March 02 and August 18 2023). As long as this dead-cat-bounce is contained below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, we see more likely one last corrective wave towards Support 1 and close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as at the time the 1D RSI is on its Support Zone, we will buy for the long-term and target the top of the 19-month Channel Up at 5400. If the price breaks above the 0.786, we will have a pattern invalidation and buy the break-out instead, targeting again 5400. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇by TradingShot1127