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US500.F trade ideas

S&P500 bullish sideways consolidation Equities: Rate-cut expectations outweighed slowdown fears. S&P 500 (+0.21%) closed just shy of record highs, NASDAQ (+0.45%) hit a fresh record. Defensive sectors lagged, leaving the equal-weighted S&P (-0.04%) slightly lower. In Europe, STOXX 600 (+0.52%) and CAC 40 (+0.78%) gained ahead of France’s confidence vote. Corporate drivers: Apple’s launch event today puts spotlight on iPhone 17 Air, though analysts see the Pro line as the true sales catalyst. Big-ticket M&A and tech deals: Anglo American–Teck merger ($50bn) and Microsoft–Nebius AI cloud contract (~$20bn). Conclusion for S&P 500 trading: Momentum remains positive with the index near record highs, supported by the rate-cut narrative and strong tech sentiment. However, breadth is weak (equal-weighted index flat), suggesting gains are concentrated. Traders may lean bullish into Apple’s event, but need to watch for rotation risk if defensives keep lagging. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6553 Resistance Level 2: 6590 Resistance Level 3: 6630 Support Level 1: 6440 Support Level 2: 6410 Support Level 3: 6380 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
SPX500 Holds Above 6,506 – Bulls Target 6,527/6,550SPX500 – Overview The S&P 500 reached our target at 6,506 and is still pushing higher toward 6,527. Technical Outlook: 📈 Bullish scenario: As long as price holds above 6,506, momentum is expected to continue toward 6,527 → 6,550. 📉 Bearish scenario: A confirmed 1H close below 6,506 would open the way to 6,490, with further downside risk toward 6,469. Key Levels: Pivot: 6,506 Resistance: 6,527 – 6,550 Support: 6,490 – 6,469 📌 Bias: Bullish while above 6,506; bearish momentum resumes only if price closes below this pivot. previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
SPX - Is it topping or setting up a for another run up?I hang up my trader title this week as I have been whooped by poor decision making in a choppy market. But here are my scenarios I will watch as we go. I can't help to think we are topping, but also see we are still in a strong bull market; it just has been harder to swing trade the daily. Scenarios I’m Watching Upside Continuation: Buyers hold above the shaded zone (6,440–6,481) and press higher along the uptrend. A clean push above 6,532 would open the door to new highs, with the trend remaining intact as long as higher lows continue. Sideways Chop: Price keeps oscillating above and below the 6,440–6,481 range. This would extend consolidation and could frustrate swing traders, but it would also allow moving averages to tighten then smooth out and set the stage for another leg higher. Deeper Pullback: If the shaded zone and uptrend line break, the next levels to watch are the 20 EMA (~6,430) and the 50 SMA (~6,355). A dip into this area could still be a normal pullback within an uptrend, especially if buyers step in quickly as they’ve done in recent weeks. Bearish Roll-Over: If neither the 20 EMA nor the 50 SMA hold, a breakdown toward ~6,200 is possible. While not a technical correction percentage-wise, it would feel significant for anyone who entered near recent highs.
SP:SPX
by emanuelaelias
2
SPX: NVIDIA surging bets on Fed cutThe previous week on the US stock markets was marked with surprisingly low Non-farm payrolls data in August. Namely, only 22K new jobs were added to the US economy, while the market was expecting to see at least 75K. At the same time, unemployment rose to 4,3% in August from 4,2% posted for the previous month. These figures were a game changer when market sentiment is in question, so Friday was a quite volatile day. Namely, during the one day, the positive market sentiment pushed the S&P 500 to the historically highest level at 6.530, but the disappointing jobs data, reverted the optimism, so the index closed the week at 6.481. The slowing jobs market increased expectations that the Fed now has solid grounds to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their September meeting. The company Kraft Heinz was in the center of news during the previous week, after the announcement that the company will split into two, in a strategic move aimed at unlocking brand value. The split should finalize in the second half of 2026. Shares of the company rose by 1% on the news, however, it should be considered that the stocks lost around 21% over the past year. Another company that was discussed was Robinhood Markets, which will join the S&P 500 index before trading on September 22nd, in a milestone indicating growing mainstream acceptance of the fintech giant. The stocks of the company surged around 7,3% following the announcement. Some higher volatility might be expected also in the coming period on the US stock markets. There are still both positive and negative drivers which are shaping market sentiment. In the week ahead the US August inflation data will be posted, which might bring some higher volatility in case that the figures are not in line with market expectations. For the moment, the easing jobs market in the US is providing a strong case for the rate cut in September.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
1
Still going up for SPX500USDHi traders, I show you week after week what price will do. If you follow my outlooks, you've made a lot of profit. For example SPX500USD played out exactly as predicted in my previous outlook. After a sharp correction it continued the upmove and made a new ATH. Now next week we could see a little more upside and a bigger correction down for (orange) wave 4. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Elliott wavecount and patterns, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 19, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the trading session of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index demonstrated a significant upward price movement following a severe drawdown on Tuesday. The index successfully reached the Outer Index Rally level of 6620 and is currently progressing towards the established target of the Inner Index Rally at 6704, with the potential for further upward momentum to extend to the Outer Index Rally level of 6768. It is essential to acknowledge that upon achieving the target of the Inner Index Rally at 6704, the expected price action is likely to initiate a substantial pullback, which is projected to aim for the target Mean Support level of 6585 and may extend to the Mean Support at 6485. Nonetheless, this primary segment of intermediary In Force Retracement pullback is likely to facilitate a considerable rebound, allowing for a subsequent retest of the Outer Index Rally level of 6704.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
S&P reaching 6666...what could ever go wrong?There's a healthy does of bullishness as tech companies buy from their neighbors with CAPEX (100% depreciation) and short term rate cuts. The stock market is at the most expensive level, ever, blowing out PE and CAPE ratios. While I hope the economy does better, a pull back is healthy. Many of the leading indicators show bright red, and some are choosing to ignore. I guess time will tell! Best of luck and keep an eye on VIX (UVIX). There's a Volmageddon 2.0 in the making.....
SP:SPXShort
by antonini2002
US500: Disconnection between equity prices & broad economic dataThe US500 is trading near record highs with the index up nearly 18% over the year. The market is driven by optimism about an imminent Fed rate cut, robust Q3 earnings, and continued strength in large cap tech shares, but fundamental valuation concerns and signs of overbought technical conditions persist. Fundamental Analysis The rally is resting on expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce its first 2025 rate cut this week, likely by 25 basis points. Mega cap tech and rate sensitive sectors are leading gains, but economic headwinds remain, unemployment is ticking higher, and indicators like retail sales and leading economic indicators have weakened. Valuations among the top US500 stocks are stretched, with the top 10 names trading at a forward P/E of 30x well above historical averages and record levels of cash hoarding notably by Berkshire Hathaway are raising caution flags. Disconnection between equity prices and broad economic data is notable, with softening consumer metrics and elevated corporate bankruptcies. Technical Analysis Technical signals remain mostly bullish, as the index continues to trade within a strong uptrend and posts new highs. Short-term technical indicators such RSI show overbought conditions and weak breadth could signal fatigue. Key support is found at 6,545, then at 6,505 while immediate resistance is at the all-time high and then at projected levels of 6,630 ahead of 6,690. Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SP:SPXLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Global Commodity Supercycles1. What Is a Commodity Supercycle? A commodity supercycle refers to a prolonged period (typically 20–40 years) during which commodity prices rise significantly above long-term averages, driven by sustained demand growth, supply constraints, and structural economic shifts. Unlike typical business cycles of 5–10 years, supercycles are much longer and tied to transformational changes in the global economy. Key features include: Long Duration: Lasts for decades, not years. Broad-Based Price Increases: Not limited to one commodity, but a basket (energy, metals, agriculture). Demand Shock Driven: Triggered by industrial revolutions, urbanization waves, or technological breakthroughs. Slow Supply Response: Mines, oil fields, and farms take years to scale up, prolonging shortages. Eventual Bust: Once supply catches up or demand slows, prices collapse, starting a long down-cycle. 2. Historical Commodity Supercycles Economists often identify four major supercycles since the 19th century. a) The Industrial Revolution Supercycle (Late 1800s – Early 1900s) Drivers: Industrialization in the U.S. and Europe, railroad expansion, urban growth. Key Commodities: Coal, steel, iron, copper. Impact: Prices soared as cities and factories expanded. Demand for energy and metals fueled new empires. Eventually, productivity gains and resource discoveries (new coal fields, iron ore mines) balanced the market. b) The Post-War Reconstruction Supercycle (1940s–1960s) Drivers: World War II destruction, followed by reconstruction in Europe and Japan. Key Commodities: Steel, oil, cement, agricultural products. Impact: The Marshall Plan, industrial rebuilding, and mass consumption pushed commodity demand sky-high. OPEC began forming as oil became the lifeblood of economies. The cycle peaked in the 1960s before slowing in the 1970s. c) The Oil Shock and Emerging Markets Supercycle (1970s–1990s) Drivers: Oil embargo (1973), Iran Revolution (1979), rapid urbanization in parts of Asia. Key Commodities: Crude oil, gold, agricultural goods. Impact: Oil prices quadrupled in the 1970s, fueling inflation and recessions. Gold became a safe haven. By the 1980s, new oil production in the North Sea and Alaska helped break the cycle. d) The China-Driven Supercycle (2000s–2014) Drivers: China’s rapid industrialization and urbanization, joining the WTO (2001). Key Commodities: Iron ore, copper, coal, crude oil, soybeans. Impact: China’s demand for steel, infrastructure, and energy triggered the largest commodity boom in modern history. Copper and iron ore prices quadrupled. Oil hit $147/barrel in 2008. The cycle began unwinding after 2014 as China shifted toward services and renewable energy, and global supply caught up. 3. The Anatomy of a Supercycle Each supercycle follows a predictable pattern: Stage 1: Triggering Event A major economic or geopolitical transformation sparks sustained demand. Examples: Industrial revolution, post-war reconstruction, or China’s rise. Stage 2: Demand Surge Factories, cities, and infrastructure consume massive amounts of raw materials. Demand far outpaces supply. Stage 3: Price Boom Commodity prices skyrocket. Exporting nations enjoy “commodity windfalls.” Importers face inflation and trade deficits. Stage 4: Supply Response High prices incentivize new investments—new oil rigs, mines, farmland. But supply takes years to come online. Stage 5: Oversupply & Demand Slowdown Eventually, supply outpaces demand (especially if growth slows). Prices collapse, ushering in a prolonged downcycle. 4. Economic and Social Impacts of Supercycles Supercycles are double-edged swords. Positive Impacts: Export Windfalls: Resource-rich countries (e.g., Brazil, Australia, Middle East) see growth, jobs, and government revenues. Industrial Expansion: Importing nations can grow rapidly by using commodities for infrastructure. Innovation Incentives: High prices drive efficiency, substitution, and technology (e.g., shale oil, renewable energy). Negative Impacts: Dutch Disease: Commodity booms can overvalue currencies, hurting manufacturing exports. Volatility: Dependence on commodity cycles creates fiscal instability (e.g., Venezuela, Nigeria). Inequality: Resource wealth often benefits elites, not the wider population. Environmental Stress: Mining, drilling, and farming expansion often degrade ecosystems. 5. Current Debate: Are We Entering a New Supercycle? Since 2020, analysts have speculated about a new global commodity supercycle. Drivers Supporting a New Cycle: Energy Transition: Shift to renewables and electric vehicles massively increases demand for copper, lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. Infrastructure Spending: U.S., EU, and China launching trillions in green infrastructure projects. Geopolitical Shocks: Russia-Ukraine war disrupted oil, gas, and wheat markets. Supply Constraints: Years of underinvestment in mining and oil exploration after 2014 downturn. Population Growth: Rising consumption in India, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Drivers Against: Technological Substitution: Recycling, efficiency, and alternatives (e.g., hydrogen, battery innovation) could cap demand. Climate Policies: Push for decarbonization reduces long-term oil and coal demand. Economic Uncertainty: Global recession risks, debt crises, and deglobalization trends. Likely Scenario: Instead of a broad-based boom like the 2000s, we may see a “green supercycle”—metals (copper, lithium, nickel) rising sharply while fossil fuels face structural decline. 6. The Role of Investors in Commodity Supercycles Supercycles are not just macroeconomic phenomena—they also attract investors and speculators. How Investors Play Them: Futures Contracts: Traders bet on rising/falling commodity prices. Equities: Buying mining, energy, and agriculture companies. ETFs & Index Funds: Exposure to commodity baskets. Hedging: Airlines hedge oil, food companies hedge wheat, etc. Risks: Mis-timing cycles leads to heavy losses. High volatility compared to stocks and bonds. Political risk in resource-rich countries. Lessons from History No Cycle Lasts Forever: Every boom is followed by a bust. Supply Always Catches Up: High prices incentivize investment, eventually cooling prices. Policy and Technology Matter: Wars, sanctions, renewables, and discoveries reshape cycles. Diversification Is Key: Countries and investors relying only on commodities face huge risks. Conclusion Global commodity supercycles are among the most powerful forces shaping economies, markets, and geopolitics. From fueling industrial revolutions to triggering financial crises, commodities underpin human progress and conflict alike. Today, the world may be on the cusp of a new, “green” commodity supercycle driven by decarbonization, electrification, and geopolitical rivalry. Metals like copper, lithium, and nickel may play the role that oil and steel did in past cycles. Yet, history teaches us caution—supercycles generate immense opportunities but also volatility, inequality, and environmental costs. For policymakers, the challenge is to manage windfalls responsibly. For investors, it is to ride the wave without being crushed by it. And for societies, it is to ensure that the benefits of supercycles support long-term sustainable development rather than short-lived booms and painful busts.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
2
The Global Shadow Banking System1. Understanding Shadow Banking 1.1 Definition Shadow banking refers to the system of credit intermediation that occurs outside the scope of traditional banking regulation. Coined by economist Paul McCulley in 2007, the term highlights how non-bank entities perform bank-like functions such as maturity transformation (borrowing short-term and lending long-term), liquidity transformation, and leverage creation—yet without the same safeguards, such as deposit insurance or central bank backstops. 1.2 Key Characteristics Non-bank entities: Shadow banking is carried out by hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms, securitization vehicles, and other institutions. Credit intermediation: It channels savings into investments, much like traditional banks. Regulatory arbitrage: It often arises where financial activity moves into less regulated areas to avoid capital and liquidity requirements. Opacity: Complex instruments and off-balance sheet entities make it difficult to track risks. 1.3 Distinction from Traditional Banking Unlike regulated banks: Shadow banks cannot access central bank liquidity in times of crisis. They lack deposit insurance, increasing systemic vulnerability. They rely heavily on short-term wholesale funding such as repurchase agreements (repos). 2. Historical Evolution of Shadow Banking 2.1 Early Developments Shadow banking’s roots can be traced to the 1970s and 1980s, when deregulation in advanced economies allowed financial innovation to flourish. Rising global capital flows created demand for new instruments outside traditional bank lending. 2.2 Rise of Securitization The 1980s–2000s saw the explosion of securitization, where loans (e.g., mortgages) were bundled into securities and sold to investors. Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) and conduits became central actors in shadow banking, financing long-term assets with short-term borrowing. 2.3 Pre-Crisis Boom (2000–2007) The shadow system expanded rapidly before the 2008 financial crisis. Investment banks, money market funds, and structured investment vehicles financed trillions in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). This system appeared efficient but was highly fragile. 2.4 The 2008 Financial Crisis When U.S. subprime mortgage markets collapsed, shadow banks faced a sudden liquidity freeze. Lacking deposit insurance and central bank support, institutions like Lehman Brothers collapsed, triggering global contagion. The crisis revealed the systemic importance—and dangers—of shadow banking. 2.5 Post-Crisis Reconfiguration After 2008, regulators tightened banking rules, pushing even more activities into the shadow system. Simultaneously, reforms such as tighter money market fund rules sought to contain systemic risks. Despite these efforts, shadow banking has continued to grow, especially in China and emerging markets. 3. Structure of the Shadow Banking System The shadow banking universe is diverse, consisting of multiple actors and instruments. 3.1 Key Entities Money Market Funds (MMFs) – Provide short-term financing by investing in highly liquid securities. Hedge Funds & Private Equity – Use leverage to provide credit, often in riskier markets. Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) – Finance long-term securities through short-term borrowing. Finance Companies – Offer consumer and business loans without deposit funding. Broker-Dealers – Rely on repo markets to fund securities inventories. Securitization Conduits & SPVs – Issue asset-backed securities (ABS). 3.2 Instruments and Mechanisms Repos (Repurchase Agreements) – Short-term loans secured by collateral. Commercial Paper – Unsecured short-term debt issued by corporations or conduits. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) – Bundled mortgage loans sold to investors. Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) – Structured products pooling various debt instruments. Derivatives – Instruments like credit default swaps (CDS) that transfer credit risk. 3.3 Interconnectedness The system is deeply interconnected with traditional banks. Many shadow entities rely on bank credit lines, while banks invest in shadow assets. This interdependence amplifies systemic risk. 4. Global Dimensions of Shadow Banking 4.1 United States The U.S. remains the epicenter, with trillions in assets managed by MMFs, hedge funds, and securitization vehicles. Its role in the 2008 crisis highlighted its global impact. 4.2 Europe European banks historically relied on securitization and repo markets, making shadow banking integral to cross-border finance. Luxembourg and Ireland are major hubs due to favorable regulations. 4.3 China China’s shadow banking system emerged in the 2000s as a response to tight bank lending quotas. Wealth management products (WMPs), trust companies, and informal lending channels fueled rapid credit growth. While supporting growth, they also raised concerns of hidden debt risks. 4.4 Emerging Markets In Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, shadow banking fills credit gaps left by underdeveloped banking sectors. However, limited oversight raises systemic vulnerabilities. 5. Benefits of Shadow Banking Despite its risks, shadow banking provides several advantages: Credit Diversification – Expands funding beyond banks. Market Liquidity – Enhances efficiency in capital markets. Financial Innovation – Encourages new instruments and risk-sharing mechanisms. Access to Credit – Supports SMEs and consumers underserved by traditional banks. Global Capital Mobility – Facilitates international investment flows. 6. Risks and Challenges 6.1 Systemic Risk Shadow banking increases interconnectedness, making financial crises more contagious. 6.2 Maturity and Liquidity Mismatch Borrowing short-term while investing in long-term assets creates vulnerability to runs. 6.3 Leverage High leverage amplifies both profits and losses, making collapses more severe. 6.4 Opacity and Complexity Structured products like CDOs obscure underlying risks. 6.5 Regulatory Arbitrage Activities shift to less regulated domains, making oversight difficult. 6.6 Spillover to Traditional Banking Banks are exposed through investments, credit lines, and funding dependencies. Conclusion The global shadow banking system is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it enhances financial diversity, supports credit creation, and fuels innovation. On the other, it introduces opacity, leverage, and systemic fragility that can destabilize economies. The 2008 crisis demonstrated how vulnerabilities in the shadow system can trigger global turmoil. Going forward, regulators must adopt balanced approaches: tightening oversight without stifling beneficial innovation. International coordination is critical, given the cross-border nature of shadow banking. As financial technology evolves, the boundaries between traditional banks, shadow entities, and digital platforms will blur even further. Ultimately, shadow banking is not merely a “shadow” but an integral part of modern finance—one that demands vigilance, transparency, and adaptive regulation to ensure it serves as a force for stability and growth rather than crisis and contagion.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet