AUDUSD| Bullish Structure RefinementPair: AUDUSD (AU)
Bias: Bullish
HTF Overview (4H): Bullish structure remains intact. Price has yet to mitigate the refined 4H OB, leaving room for continuation.
MTF Confirmation (30M): Price swept sell-side liquidity and mitigated the OB. A lower high has now broken, signaling intent. Waiting for a pullback sweep to refine long entries.
Entry Zone (5M): Entry will be executed after the sweep + pullback confirms direction on the lower timeframe.
Targets:
• TP1 = 5M highs
• TP2 = 30M highs (depending on market delivery)
Mindset Note: Confirmation first, execution second — let the sweep provide the edge.
USDAUD trade ideas
AUDUSD 4HIn this series of analyses, we have reviewed trading perspectives and short-term outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone close to the current asset price, and the market’s reaction or breakout at this level will determine the next price trend toward the specified targets.
Important note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to highlight significant levels ahead of the price and potential market reactions to these levels. The provided analyses are by no means trading signals!
AUDUSD: Strong Uptrend Driven by Positive Economic DataTechnical Analysis:
AUDUSD is currently showing a strong uptrend, with resistance at 0.65500 and support at 0.64200. If the price stays above the support level, the uptrend will continue, with a potential target of 0.64860. However, if the price breaks below the support, a downtrend could be triggered. For now, with strong momentum from technical indicators, the uptrend remains favored.
Market Context:
Recent positive economic data from the US dollar zone has boosted the AUD, providing strong support for AUDUSD. Along with favorable macroeconomic factors, the AUD continues to strengthen against the USD, driving the pair into a stable uptrend.
Trading Strategy:
With technical signals and a favorable market backdrop, traders can consider buying AUDUSD when the price adjusts to the 0.64200 support, with a potential target at 0.64860. However, close monitoring of the support level is crucial, and a stop-loss should be placed below 0.64200 to protect capital if the market reverses.
AUD/USD – Possible Bullish Reversal with Volume Profile
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) has been consolidating after a strong bearish move. Looking at the Volume Profile (VPVR) , we can see:
🔹 High-Volume Node near 0.6480 – this acts as a strong magnet for price.
🔹 Price Base Formation – market has been ranging, showing signs of accumulation.
🔹 If buyers step in, we could see a move towards 0.6480–0.6500 zone , where liquidity is clustered.
My Bias:
➡️ Short-term bullish outlook as long as price holds above the recent range bottom.
➡️ Potential upside targets: 0.6480 → 0.6520.
➡️ If the breakdown below the box, this outlook is invalid.
✍️ This is not financial advice, just my personal trading analysis based on Volume Profile and structure.
Aussie: Range-bound 'til further noticeAs expected, TVC:DXY revisited last week's lows after the Jackson Hole meeting where Powell hinted at rate cuts and re-assured us that the jobs numbers are less important than inflation data.
We now understand that 2% inflation could be long gone and that the loss of jobs, doesn't mean the loss of money, because of the early adoption of AI. I know of a local US tech shop that laid off 3 engineers in an attempt to replace their function with GPTs. It's not off to a great start, but hey they're saving $400k a year for now. The job data has long-term implications that I believe have yet to fully unfold, so let's ignore for now.
OANDA:AUDUSD should be bullish until at least September 17. I believe the cut has already been priced in, explaining the dip sub 97 for TVC:DXY to find a bottom.
My plan for the next few weeks is to trade the ranges you see in the chart. I'm buying dips above .6460 and bearish below that point.
AUDUSD Short - Liquidity sweep from a good Resistance area.The price has reached a "good Resistance area," which is a strong historical price level where selling pressure is expected to be high.
A "Liquidity sweep" has occurred, which is a key technical signal indicating that the price has temporarily moved above the resistance to trigger stop-loss orders and trap breakout traders before reversing sharply.
AUD/USD – Testing Support at 0.6420Trend: Long-term uptrend, short-term correction.
Current price: 0.6420.
⸻
Bullish scenario
• Entry: BUY LIMIT 0.6420
• Target: 0.6562
• Stop: 0.6370
Bearish scenario
• Entry: SELL STOP 0.6370
• Target: 0.6200
• Stop: 0.6430
⸻
Key levels
Support: 0.6420, 0.6370, 0.6200
Resistance: 0.6562, 0.6622, 0.6703
Indicators
• EMA(21) below price → short-term bearish.
• EMA(190) holds trend → long-term bullish.
• RSI(14) → near oversold zone, possible rebound.
⸻
📌 Holding 0.6420 keeps bullish chances alive with targets 0.6562–0.6622. Break below 0.6370 → shift to bearish trend toward 0.6200.
Could the Aussie bounce from here?The price is reacting off the pivot which is a swing low support, and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.6420
1st Support: 0.6387
1st Resistance: 0.6482
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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AUDUSD Tests 0.64400 as DXY Strengthens on Fed BetsHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.64400 zone, AUDUSD is correcting higher within its broader downtrend, with price approaching the 0.64400 resistance area. This zone aligns with prior supply and could be pivotal in determining whether bearish momentum resumes or a deeper retracement unfolds.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently broke above the 98.700 key resistance, reinforcing its bullish bias. With U.S. inflation still elevated, markets are focused on potential hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole symposium — a factor that could further strengthen the dollar and weigh on AUDUSD.
Price action around 0.64400 will be critical in assessing whether sellers reassert control or the correction continues.
AUD/USD Continues to Decline in a Downward Price Channel?Hello, what do you think about OANDA:AUDUSD ?
At the time of writing, AUD/USD is still maintaining its bearish momentum, trading within a downward price channel. The "Head and Shoulders" pattern has formed, pulling the pair down to test support around the 0.642 zone.
From an economic data perspective, the pair is dropping as the Australian Dollar faces pressure from weak economic data out of China and global concerns. Additionally, the US Dollar is strengthening due to the Fed's hawkish stance on interest rates, further pressuring AUD/USD.
The support level at 0.6420 is crucial, a break below this level could lead to further declines towards 0.6400 or even the lower limit of the channel.
Keep a close watch for potential trading opportunities and always trade safely.
Good luck with your trades!
Bullish bounce off?AUD/USD is reacting off the support level, which is a swing low support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6420
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support.
Stop loss: 0.6388
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support that is slightly above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 0.6481
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Second Chance Setup – AUDUSD Bears Ready to Smash Supports
Last time, AUDUSD didn’t push lower as expected, instead making a false breakout / FVG sweep that trapped early sellers. But now, price action has given us a much stronger bearish confirmation.
On the 1H chart:
- A Head and Shoulders pattern has formed, signaling distribution.
- Price rejected from the FVG zone and failed to hold above the 200 EMA.
- The neckline has been retested , showing commitment from sellers.
This second chance setup looks more convincing than the first because momentum is clearly shifting toward the downside. My expectation is now for AUDUSD to extend lower toward 0.6456 , with further downside targets at 0.6422 and potentially deeper if sellers remain strong.
📉 Bias – Strong Bearish
📍 Key Resistance – FVG zone & neckline area
🎯 Target Levels – 0.6456 → 0.6422 → 0.6400
AUDUSD - Short opportunity this weekWe cannot put indicators as a reference in the publications (not even the free ones, don't know the reasons of this policy), but the play here would be the following.
First condition: We wait for a 1hr cross in the red on the macd;
Second: if condition #1 is confirmed, then we switch to the 5 minute timeframe and we wait for the macd to cross back in the green on this smaller timeframe. Once that happens, we put a pending sell at the low before the small pullback. The stop loss would be above the 1 hr correction (currently around 0.653).
Needless to say that if both conditions do not occur, there is no setup.
Stay tuned
AUDUSD H4 | Bullish reversalThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the buy entry, which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 0.6423, which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 0.6361, which acts as a swing low support that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 0.6481, which is an overlap resistance.
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AUD Update: Volatility, Flow & The Wide Range Game
🌡 Volatility & ER Levels (Today):
Expected Range (1σ) for AUD/USD futures:
Lower bound: 0.63945 ← Key support
🧩 Options Flow: Big Portfolio Restructuring
Big news in the options pit:
A major portfolio targeting a drop to 0.64–0.63 has been restructured.
What’s left?
Put @ 0.64 (still in play)
Call @ 0.66 (new upper ceiling)
This isn’t random — it’s a shift from directional bearishness to range-bound positioning.
🧠 What’s the Sentiment?
Looks like the market is pricing in a wide sideways channel — exactly where AUD has been stuck for the past 2 months.
No strong bullish signals from COT yet.
📅 Next Catalyst: COT Report (Tomorrow)
Fresh data on institutional and retail positioning drops tomorrow.
🔍 Bottom Line:
Support at 0.63945 holds key.
Options now suggest a 0.64–0.66 range.
Wait for COT to confirm next move.
#AUD
AUD/USD Forming Triangle Breakout | Demand Zone SupportAUD/USD (4H timeframe) is showing a strong technical setup after weeks of sideways movement. Price has recently formed multiple tops (0.6600–0.6650 resistance) and bottoms near the 0.6450 demand zone, highlighting a clear range structure.
Key observations:
The market developed a sideways trend before breaking into a triangle pattern, indicating consolidation before the next move.
Support levels are holding well around 0.6450–0.6470, aligning with the demand zone.
A clean break above 0.6520–0.6550 would confirm bullish momentum, potentially driving price back to the strong resistance area at 0.6600–0.6650.
If buyers fail to maintain control, a rejection from resistance may lead to another retest of 0.6400 (weak low zone).
This setup provides traders with both bullish breakout opportunities and downside risk scenarios, making it an important level to watch.
This post is for educational analysis only. Not financial advice. Always apply risk management and follow your trading plan