AUDUSD Short ideaA new channel is formed, lack of momentum to the upside. Fundamentals show a movement towards downside. Good luck!Shortby Sarka1225
AUDUSD: The AUD is also having downward adjustmentsAUDUSD: The AUD is also having downward adjustments in the context of the USD index recovering. Therefore, in today's session, it is expected that AUD will still maintain short-term correction momentum to retest around the 0.6600 area. It is recommended to briefly sell AUD and then monitor the price reaction when AUDUSD tests 0.6600.by Chart_MasterPro2
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS LONG NOWFundamental Economic State Australia: GDP Growth: Latest data shows Australia’s GDP grew by 0.5% QoQ in Q1 2024, indicating a moderate expansion. Annual growth rate stands at 2.1%, reflecting steady economic performance. Implications: A stable GDP growth supports a stronger AUD, as it indicates economic resilience. Employment Data: Unemployment rate: 3.9% as of April 2024. Employment change: +30,000 jobs in April 2024. Implications: Strong employment figures bolster consumer spending and economic confidence, positively impacting AUD. Inflation Rate: CPI YoY: 4.2% in Q1 2024. Core inflation remains elevated at 3.8%. Implications: Higher inflation may prompt the RBA to consider tightening monetary policy, supporting the AUD. Retail Sales: Retail sales rose by 1.2% MoM in April 2024. Implications: Increased consumer spending signals economic health, strengthening AUD. Trade Balance: Trade surplus of AUD 12.5 billion in April 2024. Implications: A strong trade surplus supports AUD due to higher demand for Australian exports. Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence index: 103.5 in May 2024. Implications: Positive consumer sentiment encourages spending and investment, favorable for AUD. United States: GDP Growth: US GDP grew by 1.4% QoQ in Q1 2024. Annual growth rate at 2.5%. Implications: Strong GDP growth supports USD as it reflects economic strength. Employment Data: Unemployment rate: 3.6% as of April 2024. Non-farm payrolls: +250,000 jobs in April 2024. Implications: Robust employment data reinforces USD strength due to higher economic activity. Inflation Rate: CPI YoY: 4.5% in April 2024. Core inflation at 4.0%. Implications: Persistent inflation may lead the Fed to continue its tightening cycle, supporting USD. Retail Sales: Retail sales increased by 1.3% MoM in April 2024. Implications: Higher retail sales reflect strong consumer demand, positive for USD. Trade Balance: Trade deficit of USD 70 billion in April 2024. Implications: A trade deficit can weaken USD due to higher imports than exports. Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence index: 110.0 in May 2024. Implications: High consumer confidence supports economic growth, favorable for USD. Fiscal Policies: Australia: The Australian government has introduced fiscal measures aimed at boosting infrastructure spending and providing tax relief. Implications: Expansionary fiscal policy can stimulate economic growth, supporting AUD. United States: The US government continues with its infrastructure plan and has proposed additional fiscal stimulus. Implications: Increased government spending can boost economic growth, supporting USD. Daily Percentage Changes Past Month Analysis: April 28 - May 27, 2024: Daily percentage changes ranged between -0.5% and +0.6%. Significant movements correlated with key economic data releases and geopolitical events. Example: On May 5, AUD/USD rose by 0.6% following positive Australian retail sales data. Example: On May 12, AUD/USD fell by 0.5% due to a stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report. News Analysis Recent Events Impacting AUD/USD: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting: The RBA decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.85% on May 6, 2024. Impact: Market reaction was muted as the decision was in line with expectations, keeping AUD/USD stable. Federal Reserve Meeting: The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% on May 3, 2024. Impact: USD strengthened on the back of the rate hike, leading to a decline in AUD/USD. Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have impacted market sentiment. Impact: AUD, being a proxy for global risk appetite, weakened against USD during heightened tensions. Interest Rate Expectations Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Current cash rate: 3.85%. Market expects a potential rate hike in Q3 2024 if inflation remains elevated. Historical trend: The RBA has been cautious in its approach, focusing on economic stability. Federal Reserve: Current federal funds rate: 5.25%. Market anticipates further rate hikes if inflation does not ease. Historical trend: The Fed has been aggressive in combating inflation, with multiple rate hikes in the past year. Commodity Prices and Market Sentiment Commodity Influence: Iron Ore: Price: USD 120 per ton. Australia’s major export, influencing AUD strength. Coal: Price: USD 95 per ton. Strong demand from Asia supports AUD. Gold: Price: USD 1,950 per ounce. Safe-haven asset; higher prices can support AUD. Market Sentiment: Current sentiment is mixed, with concerns over global economic slowdown impacting risk assets. Implications: Risk aversion can lead to USD strength due to its safe-haven status, pressuring AUD. Projection Figures Current Price Consideration: Current AUD/USD Price: 0.6700 (as of May 27, 2024). Short-Term Projection (1-3 months): Projection: 0.6800. Rationale: Expected rate hike by the RBA and stable economic data support a slight appreciation. Long-Term Projection (6-12 months): Projection: 0.7000. Rationale: Improved trade balance and robust economic growth in Australia coupled with potential Fed rate stabilization. Trade Ideas Short-Term Trade Idea: Position: LONG AUD/USD. Entry: 0.6700. Target: 0.6800. Rationale: Anticipation of positive economic data and RBA rate hike. Long-Term Trade Idea: Position: LONG AUD/USD. Entry: 0.6700. Target: 0.7000. Rationale: Stronger economic fundamentals in Australia and potential stabilization of US interest rates. Additional Considerations Global Macroeconomic Trends: Trade wars, pandemics, and geopolitical shifts remain significant factors. Seasonal trends and historical patterns suggest AUD tends to perform well during periods of global economic recovery. Summary: Based on the comprehensive analysis, the projection for the AUD/USD exchange rate is as follows: Short-Term Projection: 0.6800. Long-Term Projection: 0.7000. These projections are based on current economic data, interest rate expectations, commodity price trends, and market sentiment. Specific trade ideas provided offer clear entry and target rates, supporting informed decision-making. Longby Georgetass21
Could AUD/USD drop from here?Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback. Pivot: 0.6654 1st Support: 0.6593 1st Resistance: 0.6712 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.Shortby ICmarkets10
AUDUSD - BUY SignalHello, buy signal for AUDUSD here. Make sure you enjoy this trade and I hope it goes in your favour.Longby ATRFinder117
Time to short AUDUSDAUDUSD chart is printing bearish trend with bearish divergence and the 3 dark crows EP: 0.66484 SL: 0.66805 TP1: 0.65914 TP2: 0.65344Shortby abdulmoeedsiddiqui5
AudusdI hit sl cause I entered too early but we were on a good profit but didn't close so we hv 7 trade 1 sl for last week and this week though de week is not over I entered more buy too on xauusd Longby Greatvic001331
AUDUSD ShortAUDUSD Sell Bias HTF chart is down after liquidity was taken and the test of the HTF supply zone. On M15 chart market shift to down side was created. Lastly on M5 chart FVG/IMB was also created. Waiting for inducement/liquidity sweep above the last swing point for proper risk Management.Shortby Murthehelp_fx4
AUDUSD Incoming ShortsFundamental Outlook: Current Australia Interest Rate: 4.35% (Weaker compared to USD) Current US Interest Rate: 5.5% (Stronger compared to AUD) Based on the interest rate difference, AUDUSD is bearish. The following upcoming news events and data releases are crucial to watch, as they may impact AUDUSD's trajectory: May 27, 2024: Bank Holiday (low market activity expected) May 28, 2024: CB Consumer Confidence (impact on USD sentiment) May 29, 2024: No significant news or data releases May 30, 2024: Preliminary GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales m/m May 31, 2024: Core PCE Price Index m/m (a major inflation indicator for the USD) Technical Outlook: The fifth wave completion suggests a reversal or correction phase is imminent. The second wave level is identified as the probable retracement target. A stabilization below 0.66530 is critical for confirming the bearish setup. Good luck guys! Shortby TheForexMessiahUpdated 4423
AUDUSDAUDUSD is showing bullish divergence place a buy as it will break its Last LH along with trendlineLongby Trade_WithOsama111
bullish move on audusdnothing special just buying at support . 1 hour is bullish price has been bullish Longby Liz144111
Double Tap and AWAY!! - AUHere I have AUD/USD on the 1 Hr Chart! Clear as day we can see 2 distinct Lows followed by a Pullback to .6653 Outlining what looks to be a Potential Double Bottom Pattern, I suspect we can see this pair move HIGHER!! Adding Confluence to this idea is the fact we are getting a Strong RSI Divergence on these Lows showing Price is looking to head UP! *Confirmation of Pattern comes when price BREAKS and CLOSES ABOVE CONFIRMATION!! -Next we will look for a Retest of that Break for possible BUY OPPORTUNITIES!! *Potential Target Profit being the Overhead Resistance Zone!Longby Novi_FibonacciUpdated 115
AUDUSD Long. 4 confirmations confirmed. Part 3Part 3 of the AUDUSD trade taken on May 27th 2024 at 8:00am. Cut even trade. Protected our capital02:20by Manny_FX_0
AUD/USD rises after retail sales tick higherThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6667, up 0.25% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s retail sales rise 0.1%, CPI next Australian consumers remain frugal and cautious, as retail sales rose just 0.1% m/m April. This was a rebound from the 0.4% decline in March and beat the market estimate of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, retail sales rose 1.3%, compared to 0.9% in March. Retail activity has been flat and that could prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates later this year. The RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35% for four straight times and the markets are anticipating that the next move will be a cut. However, the RBA has sounded hawkish and the RBA minutes of the May 7th meeting indicated that policy makers discussed a rate hike at the May 7th meeting. This was due to concerns that inflation, particularly services prices has been stickier than expected and that the path to the RBA’s 2-3% target will not be smooth. Australia releases April CPI early on Wednesday, which is expected to tick lower to 3.4% y/y, down from 3.5% in March. Fed members continue to send out a hawkish message about rate policy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that he would want to see “many more months of positive inflation data” before the Fed lowers rates, adding that a rate hike should not be ruled out. Kashakri said earlier this month that rates need to stay in restrictive territory for “an extended period”. The markets are more dovish and have priced in a rate cut at 52%, according to the CME’s FedWatch. AUD/USD Technical 0.6643 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 0.6578 0.6695 and 0.6760 are the next resistance linesby OANDA0
AudUsd 4HFX:AUDUSD Do you think it will fall from here? let's see, it looks promising....Shortby rmatiasfx2
AUDUSD: Important BreakoutThe AUDUSD price has successfully surpassed and closed above a significant intraday resistance level, indicating strong buyer momentum. The broken horizontal resistance is now acting as support. This suggests that the bullish trend is likely to persist, with the next target being 0.6711.Longby linofx1337
Bullish market during the weakness of the US dollarDear analysts and traders, I trust this message finds you in good health and high spirits as you prepare to approach the upcoming week with renewed vigor. I extend my best wishes for continued success in all your business pursuits. It is essential to emphasize that sustained success in business hinges significantly on the consistent establishment and adherence to your principles. As an advocate of the Elliott Wave principle, I regard this methodology as a valuable instrument for market analysis. Over the past three years, I have honed my approach by amalgamating this principle with a meticulous evaluation of diverse market scenarios. I strive to mitigate market uncertainties by upholding a broad spectrum of market perspectives, enabling me to discern market structures with utmost precision. I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the disclaimer that I do not offer buy or sell recommendations. My perspective on analytical ideas remains entirely impartial, and if my analysis aligns with your standards, it can serve as a compass for informed decision-making. I have enclosed my prior analysis of the same market for your perusal and comparison. All aspects of my analysis are clearly delineated for clarity. Nevertheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave principle theory facilitates comprehension of the analytical concept. I apologize for the repetitive nature of the text, as my week is occupied with formulating analytical and educational ideas, as well as engaging in trading activities and managing my social networks. Due to time constraints, I am unable to provide textual explanations for every idea, hence the inclusion of a separate text alongside the labeling. Should the text be unclear, I am available to elucidate the key points. My rigorous study of the Elliott Wave Principle spanned nearly three years, during which my grasp and utilization of this invaluable tool evolved. My progress thus far stands as a tribute to the legacy of Ralph Nelson Elliott, whose brilliance underpins my accomplishments. May he rest in peace. I am grateful for your unwavering support and benevolence, and I eagerly anticipate your feedback and constructive criticism. May my analysis serve as a valuable asset in your business endeavors, and I remain yours sincerely, Mr. Nobody Previous analytical ideas Downside scenario if DXY becomes stronger Longby mehdi47abbasi798
Longest possible AUDUSD Long/Buy tradeGood day. Through the highest order bestowed upon me may I present my analysis on a mega trade, been holding since Friday AudUsdLongby lmddube11
TOP DOWN Analysis on AUDUSDThis Reversal Strategy was constructed to speculate on possible reversals. You make a Top Down Analysis in the Daily Chart, find the Daily Floor and Ceiling and stay within the consolidation. The Entry is a lower high for sells and higher lows for buys, when you see a reversal within the daily frame. This idea is based on the strategy but in a smaller time frame for scalping. I still use H4 zones for bigger moves. The StopLoss on Forex is always around 10 and 20 pip. (20 pip for more volatile days) The StopLoss on indices is between 150 and 200 pip in a low volume (small wig) environment and between 300 and 500 pip on high volatile days. StopLoss on XAUUSD is between 50 pip in low volume and about 200-300 pip throughout high volatility. Using this strategy when course arrives at Daily/ Hourly Key Levels (DKL/ HKL) is a little more tricky than entering at the floor or taking beginnings of retracements, get a feel for reversals so you ll know what I m talking about. Also make sure not to confuse a retracement with a simple pullback.Longby UnderlayerUpdated 2
AUDUSD bullish todayPossibly its going to fly towards the HKLs of last Wednesday. But we do not know about a pullback. Try this first zone and set BE after TP1. Don't be greedy. If we get any volume today, it will be most probably bullish. Correlation between Gold and US30 is contrary to the regular. If you want to hedge, use buy and sell positions instead of taking one direction.Longby UnderlayerUpdated 0
AUDUSD IN BULLISH TRENDAUDUSD has start making higher highs and lower highs very attractive for buying at current level with a small stop loss Longby kashif19991