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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD trade ideas

USDCAD MM triggered a false breakout to fallMM provoked a false breakout of the resistance range; there is no continuation of the upward momentum. The price has returned to the range and is forming a consolidation, the goal of which may be to accumulate potential for the continuation of the downward movement. The market has a strong downward trend structure. After a false breakout of resistance, MM has the potential to move the price down. The target is the liquidity area consisting of a cascade bottom: 1.357, 1.355, 1.354.
Short
by AndeWave
2
USD/CAD Poised for a Bullish Breakout: All Eyes on 1.41 ه --- 🚀 ** The BAT formation is checking every box—whether you’re analyzing the correction of point **C from AB** or a deeper retracement of **B from XA**, the technical structure is screaming potential. 📊 **Fibonacci Magic** We’ve got confluence across key Fib levels, with the final projection targeting **1.41**, a crucial resistance that aligns with multiple technical cues. 📉 **Bearish Trendline AC? Consider It Challenged.** A decisive breach above the descending **AC trendline** would be a powerful confirmation of bullish momentum—and the market’s intent to rally. ⚠️ **Risk Strategy** The setup remains valid as long as price holds **above point X**. A protective stop-loss below X keeps the trade clean and controlled. 🎯 **Trade Outlook** With a solid harmonic base, technical alignment across retracement zones, and trendline pressure building, USD/CAD could be gearing up for an aggressive move north. It’s not just a chart—it’s a story, and right now, the plot points to 1.41. ---
Long
by Elrouby
USD/CAD Ascending Triangle Breakout, Support at Prior ResistanceWhile USD/CAD was one of the cleaner pairs for USD-weakness in Q2, the past month and change has seen a shifting backdrop in the pair. The 1.3750 level remains key and this was the price that set the low in early-May, leading to a rally up to 1.4000, which sellers defended well. That drove another fresh low but bears suddenly got shy above the 1.3500 level, leading to a pullback in June. Since then - there's been a build of higher-lows with the trendline produced by the June and early-July swing low bringing another support inflection two weeks ago. And then the rally from that finally led to a break of the ascending triangle formation which had built with resistance at 1.3750. Now that the USD is pulling back, so too is USD/CAD, and interestingly, this could be one of the more attractive venues for looking at USD-strength continuation scenarios given that recent bullish structure. - js
by FOREXcom
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by FXOpen
USDCAD 4H chart bullish setup - 04 August 2025🔍 1. Market Overview 🔸 Technical Outlook (4H Chart) Price: Currently at 1.37792, just above a strong Buy Zone at 1.37659. Structure: Bullish trend continuation with higher highs and higher lows. Targets: TP Target: Clearly marked at 1.39310 to 1.39793 resistance zone. Support: Strong base near 1.37659; additional support at 1.35586. Bias: Bullish, based on structure and rejection near support. 🔸 Trend Projection The black average trend line shows price is likely to rebound upward starting August 4, aligning with the technical bullish zone. Green projections suggest upside potential, supporting a long bias. Red projections are possible but less likely based on current price structure and support strength. 📊 2. Fundamental Analysis 🔸 Labor Market (NFP Report) Actual: 73k vs Forecast: 110k → -37k miss (Bearish for USD) Impact: Weak U.S. labor data could temporarily weaken USD, but CAD is even weaker fundamentally (see below), making USDCAD likely to still rise. 🔸 COT (Commitment of Traders) Data USD: Net short (43.52% long vs 56.48% short) → Slightly bearish. CAD: Extremely bearish (17.67% long vs 82.33% short). Net Positioning Bias: Bullish USDCAD (weaker CAD sentiment outweighs USD weakness). 🔸 Retail Sentiment Retail is 53% Short vs 47% Long → Slightly more traders are betting against USDCAD. Contrarian View: Retail traders are often wrong at turning points, which adds to bullish bias. ✅ 3. Trade Plan 🟢 Entry Plan Entry Zone: Between 1.37659 and 1.37800 (buy zone, minor retracement area). Confirmation: Look for a bullish candlestick reversal pattern (hammer, engulfing) on 1H/4H timeframe. 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Primary TP: 1.39310 (strong resistance & marked TP target). Extended TP: 1.39793 (monthly resistance level). 🛑 Stop Loss (SL) Below support: 1.37250, just below the buy zone to avoid noise. 📌 4. Risk-Reward Ratio Entry: ~1.3779 SL: 1.3725 (≈54 pips) TP: 1.3931 (≈152 pips) R:R ≈ 1:2.8 → Solid setup ⚠️ 5. Risk & News Events Be aware of upcoming CAD data or USD CPI/inflation releases. If risk sentiment worsens globally (e.g., oil prices rise → CAD strength), consider tightening stop or partial profits.
Long
by Pedro_07
USDCAD H4 | Bullish bounce off pullback supportUSD/CAD is falling toward the buy entry, identified as a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially bounce to the upside. Buy entry is at 1.3758, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.37024, which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 1.3855, which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by Tradu
USDCAD Will Go Down! Short! Take a look at our analysis for USDCAD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 1.378. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.362 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2
Canada's GDP contracts, US nonfarm payrolls misses forecastThe Canadian dollar continues to lose ground against its US counterpart and is trading at two-month lows. In the European session, the Canadian dollar is trading at 1.3875, down 0.13% on the day. USD/CAD has risen for six straight days, climbing 1.9% during that time. US nonfarm payrolls for July were softer than expected at 73 thousand, compared to the forecast of 110 thousand. The June report was revised sharply downwards to 14 thousand from an initial 147 thousand. Canada's GDP posted a small decline of 0.1% m/m in May, matching the market estimate. This followed an identical reading in April, as the economy is essentially treading water. A drop in retail trade was a significant factor in the weak GDP reading, particularly in motor vehicles and parts. The decline in GDP in April and May can be squarely blamed on the trade war with the US, which has put a chill in economic activity. The markets are expecting a slight improvement in June, with an estimate of a 0.1% gain. The Bank of Canada held the benchmark rate at 2.75% on Thursday for a third consecutive meeting. The rate statement noted that US trade policy remains "unpredictable" and Governor Macklem reiterated this at his press conference, saying that "some level of uncertainty will continue" until the US and Canada reach a trade agreement. Meanwhile, the trade war between the two sides is heating up. President Trump announced on Thursday that the US was slapping 35% tariffs on Canadian products, effective Aug. 1. The new tariff will not apply to goods covered under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney said he was "disappointed" with the US decision and vowed that "Canadians will be our own best customer". These are brave words, but Carney will be under pressure to reach a deal with the US, as 75% of Canadian exports are shipped to the US and Canada can ill-afford a protracted trade war with its giant southern neighbor.
by OANDA