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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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Will the Canada-US Trade Tension Continue to Impair CAD?Fundamental approach: - USDCAD advanced this week, supported by broad US dollar strength and renewed trade tensions as the US announced higher tariffs on Canadian imports. - The pair was further buoyed after the BoC left rates unchanged and signaled caution amid persistent core inflation and ongoing trade negotiations. - Meanwhile, US labor data indicated that job openings were moderating growth while tariff-related uncertainty weighed on risk sentiment. - The BoC’s decision to keep its policy rate at 2.75% cited domestic economic resilience and the unpredictable US trade policy outlook. - At the same time, negotiations between Canada and the US over trade terms remained in an “intense” phase, with additional tariffs entering effect 1 Aug, adding to downside risks for the Canadian economy. - USDCAD may remain elevated next week as markets monitor follow-through from new tariffs and assess further data on US jobs and Canadian trade. Potential progress or setbacks in Canada-US trade talks and upcoming economic releases could influence direction, while central bank policy signals and risk appetite will remain key catalysts. Technical approach: - USDCAD formed a Triple-bottom pattern at around 1.3567 and bounced up to break the neckline at 1.3755. The price also broke the descending trendline and closed higher than both EMAs, indicating a potential trend reversal. - If USDCAD remains above the support at 1.3755 and both EMAs, the price may retest the resistance at 1.3980. - On the contrary, closing below the support at 1.3755 and both EMAs may lead USDCAD to retest the key support at 1.3567. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
2
TREND REVERSAL CONFIRMATION Looking at the weekly timeframe for USDCAD, we can see that price action has respected a rising trendline and also reacted to a weekly bullish order block. The Sell momentum for USDCAD has come to an end, so now we saw price action accumulating around the rising trend line and bullish order block. Now there's a minor resistance which is indicated with a small blue rectangle in which price action has broken to the upside, I'm expecting price to complete an impulse correction leg or retrace to the blue rectangle or minor resistance and then from there continue to the upside. ........,...,............................................. Please share your thoughts on this analysis, do you think the downward trend is over.
Long
by enwemadufranklyn1989
USDCAD Wave Analysis – 31 July 2025 - USDCAD broke resistance zone - Likely rise to resistance level 1.3900 USDCAD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone located between the resistance level 1.3785 (upper border of the sideways price range from the start of June) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from May. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to medium-term impulse wave (B) from the start of July. USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.3900 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).
Long
by FxPro
USDCAD bounced from Support and can continue higherLooking at the chart and the overall structure, I think we can favor the continuation setup with a emphasis on price action at key zones, particularly when price breaks out then can revisit this structure for a retest. This bounce off support has been accomplished in my previous analysis: Here, if price breaks with strength and dips back into the area and holds with bullish confirmation (likely a wick rejection or bullish engulfing on lower timeframes), that would be the cue to get in. I am projecting the next target to 1.38600 that makes sense as a logical level for trend continuation and that I find achievable.
Long
by TrendDiva
37
USDCAD Update: Don’t Sleep on This Uptrend’s First LegYo traders, Skeptic from Skeptic Lab here! 🚀 USDCAD’s serving a hot long trigger for pattern traders chasing the first leg of a big uptrend! We’ve got an ascending triangle breakout on the daily, with bullish candles stacking up, hinting at a return to the weekly bullish trend. Too early to confirm, but the momentum’s fire. 📈 Today’s FOMC meeting’s got everyone buzzing—will Powell cut, hold, or drop resignation hints? Check the full setup in the video, but with crazy news like Federal Funds Rate , s tick to high-probability trades, keep risk low, and no FOMO or revenge trading! Drop your thoughts, boost if it vibes <3
Long
by SkepticLab
1
Trade deal thread could pump USDCAD?USDCAD as with the bounce off the monthly support level, current is a strong uptrend.4H perspective, price is trading above 10ema since the cross over of 20ema and 10ema price is pushing back to the upside. With trade deal thread, including upcoming GDP on CAD could pump this price back to the resistance ? As 10ema has not been tested since cross over, we may see the price to back to the upside with respecting the 10ema. Buying on EMA is a high probability trade setup.
Long
by ForexWizard01
USD/CAD Unless oil rockets, then the pair has room to rise.From June till now, we’ve been in a range-bound market, with multiple failed attempts to break lower. But now we’re seeing higher lows forming, and price is bouncing off my fvp zone @ 1.36600 . So if the Fed stays patient and oil stays weak or sideways, USD/CAD bulls have the upper hand. I am expecting a bearish retest soon to develop @ Key Bullish FVP Zone: 1.36600, but if 1.3577 gets violated with strength, then scratch the long idea — it might be time for CAD bulls to party instead. Extreme Discount Zone: Just below at 1.36000, If the price dips into this area, it could be a liquidity hunt. But if not, then the bulls will have to come in and drive the market to the 1st Take Profit Target: 1.38400
Long
by que
1
USD/CAD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE Hello, Friends! It makes sense for us to go short on USD/CAD right now from the resistance line above with the target of 1.376 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general downtrend on the previous 1W candle and the overbought situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the upper BB band. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1
Uptrend is coming. Opportunity for buyers✏️ OANDA:USDCAD is trading close to the upper boundary of the triangle pattern. There is a high possibility that the current bullish momentum will break the upper boundary and form an uptrend for the USDCAD pair. The important price zone for the sellers at the moment is 1.075. If the buyers are strong enough to push the price above 1.075, the sellers will only be really interested in the price zone of 1.340, the high of the pair in May. 📉 Key Levels Buy trigger: Reject and Trading above 1.365 BUY DCA Break 1.375 Target: 1.400 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Long
by VHT_Trader
4
Could the Loonie reverse from here?The price is rising towards the resistance level, which is a swing high resistance that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and could potentially reverse from this level to our take-profit. Entry: 1.3853 Why we like it: There is a swing high resistance that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Stop loss: 1.3910 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 1.3783 Why we like it: There is a pullback support. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by Vantage
USD/CAD Ascending Triangle BreakoutUSD/CAD was hit hard during the Q2 sell-off in the USD. And with the almost decade long range still in-play for the pair, with the reversal around 1.4500 in February, that makes sense. The problem quickly became sentiment as sellers jumped on the move so aggressively, and since mid-June bears have had trouble breaking down to any fresh lows. We can even see an element of this from May, when prices found support at 1.3750 and sellers were suddenly stalled despite a clear downside trend. This is a great illustration of why sentiment is so important - if anyone that wants to sell or that can sell the pair already has - even the worst news in the world would have trouble pushing fresh lows. Because if there's no supply coming into the market and there's more demand, well, then prices will go up just given basic supply/demand dynamics. And with a heavy built in short position following a clean downside trend, there will be some sellers looking to take profit which is what generates the start of that demand. And then more shorts will be motivated to take profit as they see price rising even with negative news flow, when prices should be falling. This can continue all the way until we get to a point that is attractive again to draw fresh sellers into the market and in USD/CAD, that was the 1.4000 handle that held a clean show of resistance in mid-May, and that ushered in another wave of selling. But in mid-June, as price got close to the 1.3500 handle, a similar type of thing started to happen as sellers began to shy away from chasing the move. Initially that allowed for pullback to that same 1.3750 level that was support in May. Sellers took another shot and even as the USD was setting fresh three-year-lows on the first day of Q3, USD/CAD was setting a higher-low above the prior swing. The trendline produced from those two lows came into play just last week - and when combined with the 1.3750 level made for a textbook ascending triangle formation. Those setups are often tracked with aim of bullish breakout as it's essentially showing a line in the sand that sellers have defended, in this case at 1.3750; but there's a diminishing impact of that resistance as shown from the increasingly higher-lows. The thought is that, eventually, sellers will give way to the buyers that have been defending higher-lows and that will lead to a breakout and fresh highs. This is what's taking place now in USD/CAD. This doesn't necessarily mean that bears are done for, as the big question here is the same from back in May, whether we get to a resistance level that's appealing enough to draw fresh shorts into the market. From the chart attached, I've outlined three areas of interest for such, with 1.3900 nearby and 1.4000 above that. If we do see a prolonged push of USD-strength, there's a zone of support-turned-resistance around 1.4151-1.4178 that becomes of interest for bigger-picture scenarios. - js
by FOREX.com
USDCAD resistance breakout at 1.3767The USDCAD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.3730 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.3730 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.3830 – initial resistance 1.3860 – psychological and structural level 1.3890 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.3730 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.3716 – minor support 1.3690 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the WTI Crude holds above 1.3730. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
USD/CAD Eyes Breakout Above 1.38 as Weekly MACD Flashes BullishUSD/CAD Eyes Breakout Above 1.38 as Weekly MACD Flashes Bullish Signal USD/CAD Weekly Technical Outlook The pair is approaching a key resistance zone around 1.3800 . A weekly close above this level could signal a push toward the 1.4000 handle, opening the door for a longer-term bullish breakout and potential buy-and-hold scenario. From the downside, a break below 1.3500 would likely trigger Canadian dollar strength, possibly driving the pair much lower. MACD Confirmation: The weekly MACD is crossing above the histogram from below, which is typically a bullish momentum signal. This supports the idea of a developing uptrend and could mark the beginning of a sustained move higher—especially if accompanied by strong volume. Fundamental Backdrop: The recent surge in U.S. Treasury demand reflects heightened risk-off sentiment and USD strength, which may continue to support the upside in USD/CAD in the near term.
Long
by david_asamoah2716