USD/CNH Break Lower Could Target 7.0000Is a possible reset in relations between the world’s two most powerful nations about to see the Chinese yuan strengthen sharply? USD/CNH is coiling in a descending triangle formation, and the risk of a break lower is arguably increasing—even if the reset proves short-lived.
After breaking beneath the 50-day moving average on August 28, USD/CNH tried twice to reclaim the level earlier this month but failed to sustain the move. The pair has since resumed its push lower, leaving it teetering on support at 7.1000 today. The last time USD/CNH attempted to break beneath this level, it triggered a sharp reversal, printing a hammer candle on the daily chart that marked the start of a squeeze higher.
While that move failed, this one may have more success, arriving just before a likely trade deal between the U.S. and China on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea later this week. There’s always the risk the framework could unravel quickly, but the backdrop screens as supportive for the yuan: the Fed is widely expected to cut rates again while retaining a dovish bias, and risk appetite is strong across Asia.
Given the triangle pattern, a close beneath 7.1000 may spark a fresh wave of selling, putting the pair on track for a possible move toward the psychologically important 7.0000 level, based on the height of the triangle.
Shorts could be considered below 7.1000 with a stop above, targeting the September 17 low of 7.0850 initially. Beneath that, price action at 7.0600 and 7.0400 may provide clues as to whether the ultimate target of 7.0000 is likely to be reached.
Momentum indicators are generating strengthening bearish signals. RSI (14) is trending lower below 50 but is not yet oversold. MACD has confirmed by staging a bearish crossover of the signal line in negative territory, indicating downside pressure is building.
Good luck!
DS
