Comparing last cycle's breakout from it's ATH with this cycle's.
Probably a slow descending triangle as interest goes away. Followed by a small capitulation. Then the dip is bought and interest picks up.
Bitcoin still feels really strong. The -20% drop was bought quickly!
A -30% pullback falls into a minor support area. Wouldn't be surprised if price headed there but doesn't feel likely at the moment.
A drop below the -30% resistance level seems very unlikely to me.
Bitcoin has been in an upward channel since the beginning of this month.
I believe this to be a bullish indicator. Typically, Bitcoin has blow of tops or consolidation into triangles (usually descending) before price makes a leg lower.
With price steadily moving up in a...
Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well so far this year (and will continue to do so in the long run).
You can see Bitcoin is up almost 40.5% for the year.
From here we have two more key levels to break before we test the S2F model's price prediction. (Stock to flow)
Paul Tudor Jones announced he was bullish on Bitcoin.
The halving date is May 12, 2020.
Bitcoin bounced off the long term trend line. This confirms the validity of the trend line. I believe this is the lowest it goes before halving.
Check the related idea below, this was what I was expecting.
Last weeks price movement (ending on March 1) closed on the 20 week moving average. Historically, if price fails to break below the 20SMA then this signals the beginning of a bull market.
Before the last halving we had a similar scenario:
There is still a good chance price will move lower though. On my daily chart, price...
Bitcoin may move sideways in a channel in the short term.
Bitcoin price action moves between significant levels in an uptrend.
I predict bitcoin will move to the outer channel line and could potential have a large push down to retest the line.
The yellow line is around the halving.
Recently noticed a pattern in the charts.
The third chart is a piece of pine script I wrote to help visualize BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS and BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS .
A drop in open shorts has been preceded by large volume pushing the price higher, likely into many stops, continuing the rally.
As you can see, after the action...
I've noticed after after every recent rally, BTC price has came back to the 30 day EMA and stalled for a few days. You can see once volume drops it creates an opportunity for price to push higher. This might be the case once again.
Technical analysis had led many traders into short positions. With a large amount of open shorts (red line) and few open longs (green line), conditions are set for volatile price action. All it would take is a a whale to push price high enough to trigger a cascade of stop losses.
The Whales' Master Plan
1: Accumulate a large amount of bitcoin at a low price
2: Unload the large amount at a high price
To do this we will need a large amount of participants willing to buy bitcoin at a high price or forced to buy bitcoin at a high price.
Bitcoin Bullish Proposal
After the recent price action I've decided to re-evaluate my analysis. By using Andrews Pitchfork, I found a channel price seems to respect. Currently, price is showing a reaction to the median, so if your a bull, this might be something to keep an eye on. If price can break through the median, I believe it will go to the next major...
What's on the chart:
Thick Red Line: 50 Week MA
Thick Blue Line: 200 Week MA
Blue Dashed Line: My projected 200 Week MA
Thin Red Line: 50 Day MA
Thin Blue Line: 200 Day MA
Dotted Red Lines: Support/Resistance
Yellow Lines: Key price levels where the price moved quickly away from.
Yellow Box: Accumulation/Distribution Zone, or "comfort" zone
We are about 500 days into the bear market now and I thought it would be fun to record the similarities between the current bear market and the previous one. Below, we may see what the future could look like.
To start, we can see the bottom of the previous bear market was almost 87% less than the all time high compared to the current 84% bottom. Both times it...