While we have a $50 target for silver by the end of 2021, we fully expect it to get smacked in risk-off environments given its importance to industrial activity. When investors are optimistic, silver trades like copper; when they're scared, it trades more like gold. It's had a great run here and while we fully expect to see the ratio get back below 80 in time,...
Technically, gold has been more or less bulletproof since March, finding strong demand on every minor pullback. If the "China Trade War" period is any guide, we are very close to a breakout topside. As long as GC1! stays in the upper half of that regression channel, you're supposed to get long and/or stay long. Bulls may need to wait for the 50-day to catch up so...
As long as that blue wedge holds, the bulls still have a fighting chance. A drop below it on solid volume and we are headed MUCH lower.
This is an index that trades at more than 50x forward earnings and 40% of its constituents aren't profitably. Fundamentally, it could still fall 50% and not be unfairly valued.
ES is out of its lane (i.e. 2-sigma channel) and pounding away at the 50% Fibo. Hard to imagine 2,785 holding up.
I'm not going to pretend to know what's going to happen to stocks...in Dollars terms at least. I'm also concerned about a spike higher in real rates due to deflation. That said, I believe the long-term reward in being short stocks in gold terms is massive. Keep your leverage under control and add to the trade over time.
Similar setup to the NQ chart we just published. AAPL is actually more overbought on a relative basis.
The confluence of the Feb 21 gap and channel top from Feb 28 pose an enormous resistance zone for NQ.