I know that the traditional 4y crypto cycle says we are half way tough the bull market, but i dont like how the price is closing below the 21 week ema at the high for the past couple of months. Also the 10y - 2y yield is reinverting from negative to positive after being inverted for like 2 years. Usually when this happens the stock market begins a bear...
Every one thinks rate cuts are good for crypto. But history shows that when the FED starts cutting rates the stock market goes in to a bear market. When the markets fall to an uncomfortable level for the Fed they start doing QE which re pumps the market again. If the stock market goes in to a bear market for the next year, crypt aint going up. Sell in to the rate...
There is 0% chance that the FED doesn't cut rates the next 3 meetings until the end of the year. People are speculating about an emergency cut before September. Also some people are speculating for a 0.5% cut. We are probably going to get a few days rally after the first cut and when the excitement wares off we will start falling again for lower levels on...
If we were to follow ETH in the 2016 - 17 run we need to start moving up right away. We should be well above $100 in mid 2025. Squeeze all the shorts. Not very likely but this is crypto after all not the SnP 500. Even the prices are the same. Pumped to 21 and dumped 71%.
ICP fundamentals: 1. Apps fully on chain. 2. DAO that actually controls the code and apps on ICP. 3. No bridge, interoperability. 4. Multi chain layer 2s running on one network. 5. No oracles needed. 6. Infinitely scalable. 7. Cheep on chain storage. 8. Reverse gas model. 9. Sweet staking rewards. 10. Biggest and best R&D team.
Imagine how the world was before fiber optic internet, google, youtube, facebook, instagram, tik tok. People actually spend their days in a totally different way then they do now. You actually needed to network in real life and go outside. Can you believe that? A similar transformation will come out of crypto the next 10 years. The internet will look in a totally...
ICP outside of the top 10 is absurd. It is the only real web 3 platform. - Where else can you create the backend and frontend of your app on chain? - Where else do you have an integrated governance system on a code level? - Where else do you have a BTC and ETH layer 2s integrated at the same time, without using a bridge? - Where else do you have AI fully on...
People are way too conservative on crypto this bull run. I don't know why. Half are talking about an early top, the other half of a recession. The halving hasnt even passed yet and BTC and ETH are at their all time highs. This is not bearish. This is bullish. BTC can go to 250k this cycle. Eth can go to 15k. And alts can go ballistic in just a year. We are in...
It would be funny to see the BTC maxi's reaction if ETH breaks its ATH before BTC does. It is perfectly set up to do it with the deflationary token omics and the ETH ETF coming.
Ok these are the 3 macro scenarios that I'm following that i think have the highest chances of manifesting for BTC this cycle. - 2 of the 3 scenarios are based on Bob Loukas standard and left translated scenarios. For those price targets I've used the lower fib targets between 122k - 173k. - For the third option I've used Plan B's stock to flow model and the...
BTC is perfectly set up for a pull back on the weekly for the next month or two. Wouldn't be surprised if we see 50k or sub 50k to shake out the leveraged longs and scare the weak hands. It would be inline with the cycle and it would give alts some room to run against BTC. People just classically fomoed in to BTC after a huge run up.
Look at that weekly. Consolidating after exiting the bottoming range in the beginning of the bull market with the seed unlocks going down from 3 to 1 mill coins a month in April. Hesus. This is going to pump. Probably to $50 without a red week. Im bullish if it wasn't clear enough.
Its easy to just hodl when you ve been trough the bear market. Its peaceful. Im not excited or disappointed of anything in my portfolio. I know every dog will have its day. Im not trading, chasing pumps. I know we have 6 - 18 more months left of the bull cycle. Easy mode. I hear some people starting to capitulate in altcoins and starting to chase the BTC pump....
Wall street is in boys. The cycles are not going to be carbon copies of each other any more. Hell there might not be a 4 year cycle for all we know. BTC could just follow the Nasdaq or SnP500 from now on, but just with higher volatility. They just might program it like any regular market. And in regular markets its just better if you are invested forever or you...
This is my second cycle in crypto. My first was a training one. I did ok there, but nothing spectacular i sold a 3.5x on my initial investment. But the trick is hanging on for the second cycle and applying what you learned from your first one. This time I got BTC at 17k, ETH at 1300, STX at 60 cents, ICP at 5 dollars, Link at 6.50, got in to ordinals early. This...
Lets pray for all the bears and leveraged traders that missed out or blew their accounts. You could have just bought and be an optimist, instead you chose to predict a recession or a zombie apocalypse and missed out on a once in a 5 year opportunity. You will probably fomo buy 70k and then the market will pull back just to make you realize how stupid you are.
Profit taking time is from April 2025 to October 2025. If you just hodl until then, without stressing about trading or capturing the exact tops of the coins you will probably do extremely well in whatever you are invested in. At this point im using trading view and X just to vent my daily thoughts and feelings and im looking at the charts for fun. I haven't...
When you buy your favorite projects, whatever they are close to the cycle bottom, you dont need to do anything else the entire bull market. You can just let the gains compound. Just follow the big daddy BTC and when you think that the bull market is over for BTC/USD, take profits in your altcoins. You are not going to time the exact bottoms and tops, get that out...