Wheeler just announces they can intervene if NZD goes any higher... SELL!
Audusd rebounded off of RBA's refrain from calling the aud "uncomfortably high" yesterday.... and also broad based usd weakness. I am expecting retail sales later today to dampen aussie's climb.
Good US consumer Sentiment today and higher PPI shows inflation will be picking up soon in the US. Risks for the euro are to the downside at this point.
technically oriented trade... I expect decent usd tomorrow and friday... technically speaking it looks like this pair is going to break down lower from here...
NZDUSD speculative positioning is a bit stretched.... this creates room for downside. The dairy auction today in new zealand showed prices dropping 8% after dropping significantly over the last 4 auctions as well... This on top of Chinese data coming in weak could give us catalyst for more downside. Later this week the ISM and NFP data are going to be released...
buy the dip.... boj still needs stimulus... usd should strengthen.
Cad is oversold... good data coming out this morning reduces chances of rate cut. watch it recover it a bit.
Looks like a rising wedge formation is developing.... I will have a buy stop entry order placed at 102.54 to get me in long at the next touch of the top of the wedge. Fed statement yesterday provides the fundamental bullish bias needed to confirm direction.
Yesterday we saw the BOE admit that they expect a higher pound in the future... employment numbers for the UK also came in positive which should be a supporting factor for the sterling over the next few days. lack of military conflict in the Ukraine has eased safe haven flows into the JPY recently... As long as tensions dont flare up over there the yen should...
*SEE PREVIOUS AUDNZD IDEA I PUBLISHED FOR MORE DETAILS* NZD gdp came in around concensus... but I beleive market was pricing in a better number. AudNzd should recover as it is a bit oversold at these levels.
Eurcad is running into longterm resistance levels up here... The new fomc projections just released are more positive for the US then anticipated. if these playout, it will trickle down to the canadian economy as their economy is strongly dependant on the US. The euro should take a step back as well on the back of dollar strength.
Aussie has had some decent data recently with the latest RBA minutes suggesting a firm "on hold" policy cycle for the near future. RBNZ has recently raised rates and a lot of this has been priced in. Even though NZD is fundamentall in a better position, this is a tactical long based this pair being near multi year lows, with risk slightly to the upside. CAVEAT!...
This week we saw further deterioration of Euro's CPI in France. Also we saw Euro PMI's fall short as well. Look for German CPI to fall short in the coming week as well for confirmation. The US data has continued being affected by the bad weather... The Feds however will continue tapering and the data will improve after march. SL will Be 1.3780.... TP 1.3665
Short at 1.6735. This pair is overbought on nearly every time frame... and is pushing against a MAJOR weekly resistance line. after a rise of nearly 400 pips without a major correction we are prime time for a nice retracement at this level. Targetting the 1.6550 level for a take profit area and using 1.6830 as a stop loss.